CHICAGO: There is a nagging question to consider before you jump into home-buying after one of the worst housing slumps in American history. Will you ever make money?
Based on how the market has performed in the past, there is no clear answer.
Not that there hasn't been good news about home prices lately. Prices have rebounded in most of the largest US cities over the last five months. The closely watched S&P Case-Shiller home-price index rose 0.9 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Low interest rates provide an added bonus: With mortgage rates still at generational lows — 30-year loans still average well under 4 percent — it's a good time to lock in a bargain.
Residential housing is still a buyer's market, and it will be for some time. There was an inventory of 2.4 million unsold homes as of July, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is roughly a 6-month supply, based on current sales trends.
But such statistics don't provide a basis for determining whether buying a home will be a money-making proposition.
Housing prices have a history of following demographic trends. When veterans came back from World War Two, for example, they wanted homes that would accommodate their growing families.
When their children — the Baby Boomers — became home buyers, they fueled the market from the late 1970s through 2006.
Historically, the two greatest surges in home prices over the past century occurred between the end of World War Two and the mid-1950s and from 1999 to 2006. When there are large numbers of home buyers of child-bearing age, that seems to correlate highly with home sales.
The last run-up in prices was the largest, according to data collected by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, author of “Irrational Exuberance” and co-creator of the Case-Shiller housing indexes. A rush to real estate combined with Baby Boomer liquidity, distrust of the stock market and a bubble mentality to drove that mania.
Homeowners got smaller price bumps during the inflationary late 1970s up until 1980, and increases remained moderate until 2000, when home prices went on a bubble-fueled tear, according to Shiller's historical data.
Is history any guide to the future performance of housing?
In one respect, yes. If the Millennial generation, born after 1980, jumps into the market en masse as their parents did, then they will bid up prices. However, that assumes they can afford to buy homes. High unemployment and wage levels that have not been keeping pace with inflation for the past decade suggest that many would-be home buyers will remain renters.
The idea that home prices will always track the rate of inflation is not always true when it comes to specific neighborhoods or regions. It is a myth that home prices consistently rise.
I took a look at my own home in the suburbs of Chicago, which we had built in 1999. If it had kept pace with inflation, it would be worth $433,000 today. For this rough calculation, I used the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index inflation calculator.
After I ran the CPI calculator estimate, I discovered that my home is probably worth — based on current market value — at least $183,000 less than what 14 years of consumer price inflation would have dictated.
The housing meltdown and subsequent foreclosures have depressed housing prices by up to 50 percent in some areas.
Places like Stockton, California, which recently filed for bankruptcy, have been devastated. Atlanta is also still reeling.
Florida, Arizona, Nevada and parts of California are still feeling the effects of the housing crash.
What does this mean if you want to jump back into the housing market? You may get a bargain, but don't expect to see the appreciation the country has experienced in the past.
Housing is not like the stock market in that it could take many years, or even decades, to bounce back.
Keep in mind that this housing recession is unpredictable because it is unusual for its duration and intensity. Two national housing downturns in the 1990s (1990-91 and 1994-95) were accompanied by relatively small recessions and recoveries within a year or so.
Since the US is linked to a global economy teaming with uncertainty and a banking system that still hasn't resolved its pre-2008 issues, homes are worthwhile shelters, but they still may be dubious investments.
— John Wasik is a Reuters columnist and the opinions expressed are his own.
Housing market: It’s good time to lock in a bargain
Housing market: It’s good time to lock in a bargain
IMF raises Saudi growth forecast to 3.5% for 2025, outstripping global average
RIYADH: The International Monetary Fund has revised up its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth in 2025, raising it to 3.5 percent from the 3 percent projected in April.
In its concluding statement following an Article IV consultation, the IMF highlighted the pivotal role of Vision 2030 mega projects in sustaining the Kingdom’s economic momentum, noting its continued resilience amid lower oil prices and shifting international challenges.
The IMF projects Saudi economic growth will outpace the global average of 2.8 percent in 2025, as well as outstripping most of its Gulf peers.
“Robust domestic demand — including from government-led projects — will continue to drive growth despite heightened global uncertainty and a weakened commodity price outlook,” the IMF stated in its new report.
The fund expected this momentum, supported by the scheduled phase-out of OPEC+ production cuts, to push growth even higher to 3.9 percent in 2026 before stabilizing around 3.3 percent in the medium term.
The Saudi Ministry of Finance welcomed the IMF’s concluding statement, highlighting its confirmation of “the strong resilience of the Saudi economy in the face of global economic shocks, supported by the expansion of non-oil sector activities, containment of inflation, and a historically low unemployment rate — all aligning with the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030.”
The ministry noted the IMF’s praise for the government’s efforts to enhance public finance sustainability and resilience to shocks, as well as its recognition that strong domestic demand continues to support economic growth despite global uncertainty, reflecting the Kingdom’s continued implementation of Vision 2030 projects.
Non-oil gross domestic product growth, a key indicator of diversification success, is projected to grow at 3.4 percent in 2025.
While slightly lower than the 4.2 percent achieved in 2024, the IMF attributed this sustained performance to “continued implementation of Vision 2030 projects through public and private investment, as well as strong credit growth, which would help sustain domestic demand and mitigate the impact of lower oil prices.”
Medium-term non-oil growth is expected to approach 4 percent by 2027 before stabilizing at 3.5 percent by 2030.
The IMF also noted positive developments in the labor market and inflation. The unemployment rate for Saudi nationals fell to a record low of 7 percent in 2024, surpassing the original Vision 2030 target.
Headline inflation, despite a small rise to 2.3 percent in April, remains contained.
“Inflation would remain anchored around 2 percent, supported by a credible peg to the US dollar, domestic subsidies, and an elastic supply of expatriate labor,” the fund projected.
On fiscal policy, the IMF deemed the anticipated higher spending in 2025, leading to a deficit above budget targets, as “appropriate.”
“Given the upfront adjustment and ample fiscal buffers available, staff believes that additional spending restraint in 2025— triggered by lower-than-budgeted oil prices— is not necessary as it would make fiscal policy procyclical and exacerbate the impact on growth,” the statement added.
However, it emphasized the need for gradual fiscal consolidation over the medium term, recommending measures like non-oil revenue mobilization, removing energy subsidies, and rationalizing spending.
The IMF highlighted the banking sector’s resilience but cautioned about the risks associated with strong credit growth. “Addressing strong credit growth and associated funding pressures would help mitigate risks to systemic financial stability,” the report urged.
It welcomed the Saudi Central Bank’s recent introduction of a countercyclical capital buffer and ongoing efforts to enhance regulatory frameworks.
The fund strongly emphasized the need for continued structural reforms. “The current environment of heightened uncertainty underscores the importance of continued structural reform efforts to sustain non-oil growth and economic diversification,” the statement concluded.
It added: “The reform momentum should continue irrespective of oil price developments.”
This includes strengthening anti-corruption frameworks, enhancing human capital, improving access to finance, fostering digitalization, and deepening capital markets.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 11,068
- Parallel market Nomu gained 215.80 points to close at 27,053.10
- MSCI Tadawul Index rose 11.41 points to close at 1,418.88
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Thursday, gaining 94.29 points, or 0.86 percent, to close at 11,068.27.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR5.72 billion ($1.52 billion), as 206 of the stocks advanced and 40 retreated.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu gained 215.80 points, or 0.80 percent, to close at 27,053.10. This comes as 54 of the listed stocks advanced while 31 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index increased 11.41 points, or 0.81 percent, to close at 1,418.88.
The best-performing stock of the day was Ades Holding Co., whose share price rose 6.97 percent to SR13.82.
Other top performers included National Gypsum Co., whose share price increased 5.66 percent to SR22.40, as well as Zamil Industrial Investment Co., which rose 5.42 percent to SR42.80.
Specialized Medical Co. recorded the most significant drop, falling 3.31 percent to SR23.36.
Saudi Advanced Industries Co. also saw its stock price fall 2.55 percent to SR26.75.
Al-Taiseer Group Talco Industrial Co.’s stock price declined 2.27 percent to SR43.10.
Dar Al-Arkan Real Estate Development Co. has closed its 14th sukuk issuance, marking the tenth tranche under its USD-denominated Islamic Sukuk Program, with a total size of SR2.81 billion, the company said in a statement to Tadawul.
The five-year sukuk, carrying an annual profit rate of 7.25 percent, was issued on June 25 and attracted strong demand from both regional and international investors. The order book reached SR10.8 billion, nearly four times oversubscribed, according to the bourse filing.
The issuance comprised 3,750 sukuk units, each with a par value of $200,000.
Dar Al-Arkan appointed Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank PJSC, Alkhair Capital, Al Rayan Investment LLC, Arqaam Capital, Bank ABC, and Dubai Islamic Bank as joint lead managers for the transaction.
Also on the mandate were Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, J.P. Morgan, as well as Mashreq, Sharjah Islamic Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, and Warba Bank.
Shares in Dar Al Arkan ended the session marginally lower, closing at SR19.22, down 0.10 percent.
The Board of Directors of Sahara International Petrochemical Co., also known as Sipchem, has approved SR362 million in cash dividends for the first half of 2025, according to a statement published on Tadawul.
The payout applies to 752 million eligible shares, translating to a dividend of SR0.50 per share, or 5 percent of the share’s par value.
Shares in Sipchem closed the session higher at SR19.06, gaining 4.24 percent.
Najran region’s business registrations jump 56% amid Saudi investment push
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Najran region has recorded a 56 percent increase in commercial registrations over the past five years, signaling expanding economic activity and growth potential in the southern province.
According to government data presented at the Najran Investment Forum 2025, business licenses in the region reached 39,000, accounting for around 2.3 percent of the Kingdom’s 1.7 million total records.
The forum, held from June 25 to 26 under the patronage of Prince Jalawi bin Abdulaziz bin Musaed, brought together government officials and private sector leaders to highlight economic prospects in the region. According to organizers, the event featured 53 project opportunities valued at over SR639 million ($170 million).
The southern province is emerging as a regional development hub under Vision 2030. With its mineral wealth, fertile land, cultural heritage, and growing logistics capabilities, it is positioned as a gateway for trade and business in line with the Kingdom’s economic diversification goals.
Speaking during the forum’s opening session, Assistant Minister of Commerce Abdulaziz bin Saud Al-Duhaim said: “Najran is an important region that abounds with diverse investment opportunities, based on its geographical location, natural resources, and competitive sectors such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing industries, tourism, and others.”
He added: “We have reviewed and developed more than 110 pieces of legislation over the past few years, most notably regulations on companies, franchises, e-commerce, bankruptcy, commercial registration, trade names, and others.”
The region’s light transport sector saw the largest increase in new registrations, up 124 percent year on year in the first quarter to 536. The logistics sector followed with 111 percent growth, totaling 345 records. Registrations in civil protection equipment installation and maintenance rose by 26 percent, while storage facilities climbed 31 percent, reaching 717 records.
During his participation in the forum, Al-Duhaim also emphasized that the Ministry of Commerce has strengthened market regulations to protect consumers, monitor prices, and combat fraud and commercial cover-ups.
“We are working on a comprehensive consumer protection system, established a reporting center and a summons center, and launched the ‘Emtithal’ electronic inspection and monitoring system,” he said.
The assistant minister also noted that the National Competitiveness Center has worked with more than 65 government agencies, in partnership with the private sector, to implement over 900 economic reforms and recommendations aimed at enhancing business competitiveness.
He added that 21 branches of the Saudi Business Center have been established to facilitate business start-ups and operations.
“The Ministry is working to develop and implement comprehensive strategies for the wholesale, retail, and professional services sectors, and to develop the services sector by leveraging new technologies,” Al-Duhaim said.
During the event, 14 cooperation agreements were signed between the Najran Chamber and various public and private entities to support local initiatives and business development.
Abdullah bin Ali bin Mohammed Al-Ahmari, assistant minister of industry and mineral resources for planning and development, who also participated in the event, noted that Najran is one of the richest regions in mineral resources, with the estimated value of untapped reserves rising from SR145 billion to more than SR227 billion.
He also emphasized the importance of developing mining-related manufacturing industries to maximize added value and boost exports.
In the same context, Abdullah Al-Dubaikhi, assistant minister of investment, discussed the province’s competitive advantages, noting that the area offers promising opportunities in mining, specialized agriculture, tourism, and education — sectors that require coordinated efforts among relevant authorities to unlock their full potential.
He noted that total projects registered on the Invest in Saudi Arabia platform for the region amounted to approximately SR8 billion.
The forum aimed to showcase the area’s economic potential, attract quality investments, and provide an effective platform for engagement between local and international investors and government agencies.
“The ministry has been committed to addressing all challenges facing the business sector by developing legislation, facilitating procedures, and expanding financing programs and solutions that empower entrepreneurship and commercial establishments,” Al-Duhaim added.
Saudi Arabia to see 700% surge in millionaire inflows in 2025: Henley & Partners
- UAE continues to lead globally, forecast to attract 9,800 millionaires this year,
- Report predicts unprecedented 142,000 millionaires across the world expected to relocate in 2025
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is projected to attract 2,400 high-net-worth individuals in 2025, marking a sharp increase from the 300 millionaires estimated to have relocated to the Kingdom in 2024.
This eightfold rise positions Saudi Arabia as the fastest climber in the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2025, published by Henley & Partners in collaboration with New World Wealth.
Across the Gulf, the UAE continues to lead globally, forecast to attract 9,800 millionaires this year, the highest net inflow worldwide, followed by the US with 7,500.
HNWIs are relocating to the Kingdom due to its ambitious Vision 2030 agenda, pro-business reforms, and growing investment opportunities. The surge in inbound wealth reflects the region’s growing appeal to both returning nationals and international investors, particularly in Riyadh and Jeddah.
Saudi Arabia has also introduced attractive residency programs, tax incentives, and a push to diversify the economy beyond oil.
Juerg Steffen, CEO of Henley & Partners said that 2025 marks a “pivotal moment” for global wealth migration, adding: “It reflects a deepening perception among the wealthy that greater opportunity, freedom, and stability lie elsewhere.”
Mega projects like NEOM, improved infrastructure, and a focus on tourism and fintech are drawing international interest.
Additionally, the Kingdom offers political stability, regional influence, and a strategic location, making it an increasingly attractive destination for global wealth.
Henley & Partner’s report aligns with a recent study by consulting firm Capgemini, which highlighted the Middle East’s growing appeal to next-generation high-net-worth individuals, citing geopolitical security and economic stability as key drivers of investment interest in the region.
The analysis, published earlier in June, pointed specifically to Saudi Arabia’s aggressive efforts to attract global wealth through its economic diversification strategies, positioning the Kingdom as a rising center for international capital.
Capgemini also noted that the UAE is capitalizing on the same trend, with both Gulf economies drawing increased interest from global investors seeking high-growth markets and stable financial environments.
UK biggest loser amid global shift
Henley & Partner’s recent report predicts that an unprecedented 142,000 millionaires across the world are expected to relocate in 2025.
While Gulf countries and select European destinations see rising inflows, several traditional wealth hubs are witnessing record outflows.
The UK is forecast to lose 16,500 high-net-worth individuals, the highest on record, more than doubling China’s projected outflow of 7,800.
This reversal comes after years of the UK being a net destination for wealth, with recent tax reforms — including increases to capital gains and inheritance taxes and tighter regulations on non-domiciled residents — prompting an accelerated departure.
“Since 2014, the number of resident millionaires in the UK dropped by 9 percent compared with the W10’s global average growth of 40 percent,” said Trevor Williams, chair and co-founder at FXGuard, a digital foreign exchange risk manager, according to the report.
The shift is part of a broader trend in Europe, where France, Spain, and Germany are also expected to experience net outflows of wealthy individuals.
In contrast, Southern Europe is emerging as a new hub for global wealth.
Switzerland is projected to gain 3,000 millionaires, while Italy is set to receive 3,600.
Portugal and Greece are expected to receive 1,400 and 1,200, respectively.
Smaller markets such as Malta, Montenegro, and Latvia are also benefiting from favorable tax regimes and investment migration programs.
Beyond Europe, Thailand and Japan are increasingly preferred by wealthy individuals in Asia.
Thailand is forecast to gain 450 millionaires, and Japan 600, driven by political stability and high-end real estate.
Hong Kong is also showing signs of recovery, with inflows from mainland Chinese executives linked to the region’s growing tech sector. However, South Korea is set to see a significant outflow of 2,400 millionaires, reflecting broader economic and political uncertainty.
Other countries in Asia and the Middle East, including Vietnam, Pakistan, Iran, and Lebanon, are expected to see continued outflows of wealthy individuals, many relocating to the UAE or the US.
Misha Glenny, rector at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, said recent geopolitical developments, including tensions in the Middle East, are contributing to a reshuffling of wealth migration patterns, according to the report.
In the Americas, Central American and Caribbean jurisdictions such as Costa Rica, Panama, and the Cayman Islands are expected to attract record numbers of high-net-worth individuals.
Despite a lower-than-usual forecast for inflows, the US remains a top destination for relocating millionaires.
Parag Khanna, founder and CEO of AlphaGeo, an AI-powered predictive analytics platform for investing, noted the ongoing role of Asia in shaping global wealth trends.
“Asia’s wealth landscape is a dynamic blend of ambition and caution. Singapore and Japan are solidifying their reputations as global wealth havens, while China and India are balancing domestic opportunity with the desire for diversification,” Khanna was quoted as saying in the report.
Gulf shares rise as Iran-Israel ceasefire holds
- Saudi Arabia’s benchmark stock index extended its gains to a fourth straight session, rising 0.2%
- Abu Dhabi benchmark index rose 0.4%
LONDON: Stock markets in the Gulf rose in early trade on Thursday, extending gains from the previous sessions amid rising oil prices as a ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding.
US President Donald Trump hailed the swift end to the air war between Iran and Israel and said Washington would likely seek a commitment from Tehran to end its nuclear ambitions at talks with Iranian officials next week.
Saudi Arabia’s benchmark stock index extended its gains to a fourth straight session, rising 0.2 percent, with most sectors in the green. Oil major Saudi Aramco added 0.3 percent and Red Sea International climbed 3 percent.
Modular house manufacturer Red Sea said on Wednesday it planned to float its mechanical, electrical and plumbing subsidiary on the Saudi market.
Oil prices, a catalyst for the Gulf’s financial markets, were up 0.2 percent as a larger-than-expected draw in US crude stocks signalled firm demand. Brent crude was trading at $67.83 a barrel by 10:05 a.m. Saudi time.
The Abu Dhabi benchmark index rose 0.4 percent, aided by a 5.3 percent advance in RAK Properties and a 0.6 percent gain in Borouge.
Petrochemical company Borouge said on Wednesday it would collaborate with Honeywell on a project to deliver the petrochemical industry’s first AI-driven control room.
Dubai’s benchmark stock index was up for a fifth straight session, advancing 0.6 percent, pushed up by the materials, industry and finance sectors.
Tolls operator Salik gained 1.8 percent and Emirates NBD, the emirate’s largest lender, added 0.6 percent.
The Qatari benchmark index was marginally up, propped up by gains in the materials, utilities and communications sectors.
Vodafone Qatar advanced 1.2 percent while Qatar National Bank, the region’s largest lender, shed 0.3 percent.
Qatar Investment Authority and Canadian asset manager Fiera Capital have launched a $200 million fund to boost foreign and local investment into the Gulf state’s stock market, QIA said on Wednesday.
