CHICAGO: There is a nagging question to consider before you jump into home-buying after one of the worst housing slumps in American history. Will you ever make money?
Based on how the market has performed in the past, there is no clear answer.
Not that there hasn't been good news about home prices lately. Prices have rebounded in most of the largest US cities over the last five months. The closely watched S&P Case-Shiller home-price index rose 0.9 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Low interest rates provide an added bonus: With mortgage rates still at generational lows — 30-year loans still average well under 4 percent — it's a good time to lock in a bargain.
Residential housing is still a buyer's market, and it will be for some time. There was an inventory of 2.4 million unsold homes as of July, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is roughly a 6-month supply, based on current sales trends.
But such statistics don't provide a basis for determining whether buying a home will be a money-making proposition.
Housing prices have a history of following demographic trends. When veterans came back from World War Two, for example, they wanted homes that would accommodate their growing families.
When their children — the Baby Boomers — became home buyers, they fueled the market from the late 1970s through 2006.
Historically, the two greatest surges in home prices over the past century occurred between the end of World War Two and the mid-1950s and from 1999 to 2006. When there are large numbers of home buyers of child-bearing age, that seems to correlate highly with home sales.
The last run-up in prices was the largest, according to data collected by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, author of “Irrational Exuberance” and co-creator of the Case-Shiller housing indexes. A rush to real estate combined with Baby Boomer liquidity, distrust of the stock market and a bubble mentality to drove that mania.
Homeowners got smaller price bumps during the inflationary late 1970s up until 1980, and increases remained moderate until 2000, when home prices went on a bubble-fueled tear, according to Shiller's historical data.
Is history any guide to the future performance of housing?
In one respect, yes. If the Millennial generation, born after 1980, jumps into the market en masse as their parents did, then they will bid up prices. However, that assumes they can afford to buy homes. High unemployment and wage levels that have not been keeping pace with inflation for the past decade suggest that many would-be home buyers will remain renters.
The idea that home prices will always track the rate of inflation is not always true when it comes to specific neighborhoods or regions. It is a myth that home prices consistently rise.
I took a look at my own home in the suburbs of Chicago, which we had built in 1999. If it had kept pace with inflation, it would be worth $433,000 today. For this rough calculation, I used the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index inflation calculator.
After I ran the CPI calculator estimate, I discovered that my home is probably worth — based on current market value — at least $183,000 less than what 14 years of consumer price inflation would have dictated.
The housing meltdown and subsequent foreclosures have depressed housing prices by up to 50 percent in some areas.
Places like Stockton, California, which recently filed for bankruptcy, have been devastated. Atlanta is also still reeling.
Florida, Arizona, Nevada and parts of California are still feeling the effects of the housing crash.
What does this mean if you want to jump back into the housing market? You may get a bargain, but don't expect to see the appreciation the country has experienced in the past.
Housing is not like the stock market in that it could take many years, or even decades, to bounce back.
Keep in mind that this housing recession is unpredictable because it is unusual for its duration and intensity. Two national housing downturns in the 1990s (1990-91 and 1994-95) were accompanied by relatively small recessions and recoveries within a year or so.
Since the US is linked to a global economy teaming with uncertainty and a banking system that still hasn't resolved its pre-2008 issues, homes are worthwhile shelters, but they still may be dubious investments.
— John Wasik is a Reuters columnist and the opinions expressed are his own.
Housing market: It’s good time to lock in a bargain
Housing market: It’s good time to lock in a bargain
GCC vows solid climate action efforts to guard coastal communities
RIYADH: The Gulf Cooperation Council has reaffirmed its commitment to implement strong climate action efforts to tackle environmental issues faced by coastal communities.
Speaking at the Ocean Rise and Coastal Resilience Summit, Jasem Mohamed Al-Budaiwi, secretary-general of the GCC, said that the council is undertaking various efforts to safeguard the marine environment, particularly the Arabian Gulf, through policies and initiatives that are already yielding visible results.
Al-Budaiwi added that the coastal zones of GCC nations are environmentally vulnerable, and protecting them is crucial for sustainable development and prosperity in the region, according to the news agency WAM.
Despite being oil-dependent nations, countries in the GCC, including the Kingdom, are taking significant steps to combat climate change, with Saudi Arabia setting its net-zero target for 2060.
According to the latest report by WAM, Al-Budaiwi “underscored the importance of adopting ambitious, actionable strategies rooted in local and international expertise to address growing environmental challenges.”
The report added: “The Secretary-General also emphasized that sustainable development and climate resilience are central to the visions of all GCC member states.”
Al-Budaiwi also used his speech to underscore the importance of adopting ambitious, actionable strategies rooted in local and international expertise to address growing environmental challenges.
The secretary-general further said that sustainable development and climate resilience are central to the development goals of all member states in the GCC.
He also called for urgent and collective action to transform climate pledges into measurable outcomes, particularly in vulnerable coastal regions.
During the 43rd meeting on “Future Climate Change Management and Economic Development in the Gulf States” in Muscat in February, Gulf nations announced plans to invest $100 billion in renewable energy by 2030 to cut emissions by up to 20 percent as part of their transition to sustainable energy.
The Kingdom, in particular, is also making significant efforts to ensure a green future and protect marine resources.
The King Abdullah University of Science and Technology has emerged as a world-class partner in marine science, collaborating with multiple entities to inform data-driven conservation efforts.
KAUST is also partnering with Saudi Arabia’s futuristic city, NEOM, to ensure coral reef restoration and coastal habitat mapping using advanced robotics and artificial intelligence.
As part of its broader sustainability efforts, the Kingdom has also launched the Saudi Green Initiative to advance its environmental goals.
Under SGI, the nation aims to plant 10 billion trees, rehabilitate 40 million hectares of degraded land, and reduce carbon emissions by more than 278 million tonnes per year.
In April, Saudi Arabia’s National Center for Wildlife signed an agreement with the UK’s National Oceanography Center to collaborate on marine biodiversity projects.
Under the deal, studies will be conducted to assess the impact of human activities on marine ecosystems, and the use of advanced technologies will be explored to mitigate their potential harm.
Maersk, Panattoni, JD Property sign major deals with Saudi entities at Munich logistics expo
RIYADH: Global supply chain players including Maersk, Panattoni, and JD Property signed agreements with Saudi entities at Transport Logistic 2025, underscoring the Kingdom’s emergence as a key player in the sector.
The deals — involving partnerships with firms such as GFS Express, Hefei Logistics Group, Scan Global, and Koppern — were unveiled as part of Saudi Arabia’s expansive presence at the trade fair, held in Munich, Germany.
Led by the National Industrial Development and Logistics Program and Invest Saudi, the Kingdom’s pavilion brought together 22 key government and private sector stakeholders.
Saudi Arabia has emerged as a central hub in the global logistics sector, with its market valued at $136.3 billion in 2024. It is also projected to grow at an annual rate of 6.5 percent, reaching $198.9 billion by 2030, according to Eurogroup Consulting.
“From hosting tech giants like Apple and iHerb in smart hubs to launching our national car Ceer, Saudi Arabia is becoming an industrial and automotive powerhouse,” said Suliman Al-Mazroua, CEO of NIDLP, according to a post on the organization’s official X account.
He added: “This isn’t just our story, it’s an invitation to dreamers and innovators. The future is happening now.”
Speaking at the three-day event that started on June 3, Al-Mazroua highlighted Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification success.
“For the first time in our history, non-oil activities contribute 55 percent of Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product. This isn’t a future target, it’s today’s reality,” he said.
Key deals signed
The first day of the exhibition witnessed the signing of several strategic agreements aimed at strengthening Saudi Arabia’s logistics capabilities and fostering international cooperation.
Among the key deals, GFS Express and Hefei Logistics Group inked a memorandum of understanding to enhance logistics collaboration and develop innovative supply chain solutions.
SAL partnered with GCL to create specialized logistics solutions for the entertainment, sports, and arts sectors.
MODON and JD Property agreed to work on advanced logistics infrastructure and the localization of tech solutions, while JTM, Silk Mile, and Assaat formed an investment partnership to establish a logistics joint venture in the Kingdom.
MODON signed an MoU with US-based Panattoni to develop a logistics project in Jeddah, boosting supply chain efficiency.
Further agreements included SPL, Scan Global, and Maersk collaborating to enhance air freight, delivery solutions, and digital logistics infrastructure, as well as NIDLP partnering with Germany’s Koppern to explore the localization of roller press systems and compaction machines.
The Saudi pavilion attracted strong interest from global investors, industry leaders, and technology partners as it highlighted the Kingdom’s achievements in transport, logistics, and industrial development.
These developments align with Saudi Vision 2030 goals to position the country as a leading global logistics hub connecting three continents.
The event featured six specialized workshops covering infrastructure, digital transformation, and human capital development. A key session, “It’s Happening: Saudi Logistics Now,” emphasized the Kingdom’s logistics transformation through public-private partnerships.
Saudi Arabia continued to demonstrate its commitment to becoming a top-tier logistics and industrial destination, attracting global investors and innovators to join its growth journey.
Manufacturing, mining sectors drive Saudi industrial growth to 3.1%: GASTAT
- Kingdom’s IPI advanced to 108.6 in April, representing a 0.6% rise
- Sub-index of manufacturing activities advanced by 7.4%
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Industrial Production Index expanded by 3.1 percent year on year in April, driven by strong growth in the manufacturing, mining, and quarrying industries, official data showed.
According to preliminary data from the General Authority for Statistics, the Kingdom’s IPI advanced to 108.6 in April, representing a 0.6 percent rise compared to the previous month.
The latest IPI figures reinforce the progress of Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification journey, which aims to reduce the Kingdom’s decades-long dependence on crude revenues.
“Preliminary results indicated a 3.1 percent increase in the IPI in April 2025 compared to the same month of the previous year, supported by the rise in mining and quarrying activity, manufacturing activity and water supply, sewerage and waste management and remediation activities,” the analysis stated.
GASTAT revealed that the sub-index of manufacturing activities advanced by 7.4 percent in April compared to the same month in 2024.
The authority added that the index of oil activities saw an annual rise of 4.3 percent in the fourth month of the year, while non-oil activities edged up by 0.1 percent. Compared with March, oil activities rose by 1.6 percent, whereas non-oil activities declined by 2 percent.
GASTAT added that the growth in the manufacturing sector was driven by an increase in the production of coke and refined petroleum products, which grew by 22.6 percent year on year in April.
The chemical manufacturing sector also contributed to the rise, increasing 9.1 percent annually.
On a monthly basis, the sub-index of manufacturing activity witnessed a rise of 0.5 percent, driven by a 5.8 percent increase in the production of coke and refined petroleum products.
The expansion of the manufacturing sector highlights the evolving structural transformation of the Saudi economy, with the Kingdom positioning itself as a key player in the global industrial landscape.
In April, the sub-index of mining and quarrying activities increased by 0.2 percent compared to the same month in 2024.
“Saudi Arabia increased its oil production to 9.01 million barrels per day in April 2025 compared to 8.99 million barrels per day in April 2024,” said GASTAT.
On a monthly basis, the sub-index of mining and quarrying activity increased by 0.5 percent in April.
According to the report, the electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply sector registered an annual decrease of 0.2 percent but saw a monthly rise of 4.3 percent.
GASTAT further said that water supply, sewerage, and waste management activities increased by 8.8 percent year on year in April, while it declined by 0.7 percent compared to the previous month.
Compared to March, the index for oil activities increased by 1.6 percent in April, while non-oil activities dropped by 2 percent.
The Industrial Production Index measures changes in industrial output based on the International Standard Industrial Classification framework, covering mining, manufacturing, utilities, and waste management sectors.
Strategic reforms and cultural depth are driving Uzbekistan’s tourism boom, says official
- Chairman of the Tourism Committee praised Saudi Arabia’s diversification efforts in tourism
- Saudi tourist arrivals in Uzbekistan rose from 1,731 in 2022 to over 4,100 in 2024
TASHKENT: As Uzbekistan undergoes an economic transformation, tourism has emerged as both a cultural ambassador and a powerful growth engine.
At the forefront is Umid Rustamovich Shadiyev, chairman of the Tourism Committee under the Ministry of Ecology.
Formerly Uzbekistan’s Permanent Representative to UNESCO, Shadiyev brings both diplomatic experience and a deep understanding of the nation’s rich heritage.
Arab News spoke with Shadiyev during the Tashkent International Investment Forum 2025, a flagship platform bringing together global investors, policymakers, and innovators to explore Uzbekistan’s investment landscape.
Now in its fourth edition, the forum has become a cornerstone of the country’s reform agenda, highlighting strategic sectors such as energy, infrastructure, agriculture, and tourism.
This year’s event welcomed over 2,500 delegates from 70 countries, with tourism receiving special focus as a driver of inclusive and sustainable development.
Saudi-Uzbek tourism ties deepen
The conversation turned to Saudi Arabia, where tourism is undergoing a historic transformation under Vision 2030. Shadiyev praised the Kingdom’s diversification efforts, calling it “a new center of global tourism.”
Uzbekistan sees an opportunity for synergy, and a memorandum of cooperation in tourism was signed in 2022, followed by joint forums and high-level meetings in 2023 and 2024.
“Our relationship with Saudi Arabia is growing stronger each year,” said the official.
The results are visible. Saudi tourist arrivals in Uzbekistan rose from 1,731 in 2022 to over 4,100 in 2024, reflecting growing interest in cultural, gastronomic, and mountain tourism.
“There’s huge potential in developing family-oriented tours, heritage trails, and collaborative media campaigns,” Shadiyev noted.
Tourism university exchanges, journalist visits, and influencer collaborations are also being explored.
In 2025, Uzbekistan is emphasizing sustainable tourism and aims to increase the average stay of foreign visitors to 10 to 12 days. Strategic partnerships — such as with Saudi Arabia — are seen as central to achieving this goal.
Tourism emerges as economic pillar
“Tourism is currently one of the key sectors of Uzbekistan’s economy,” Shadiyev noted. “In 2024, we saw a significant leap forward: the export of tourism services increased by 1.6 times, reaching $3.5 billion.”
This performance is backed by a rise in entrepreneurship, with more than 2,000 new tourism businesses launched in the past year alone. From boutique hotels to eco-lodges and cultural tour operators, a new generation of investors is responding to supportive government policies and the sector’s strong profitability.
The transformation is evident across the country. Over the past eight years, Uzbekistan has attracted $6.5 billion in tourism-related investments and added 130,000 new hotel beds.
“These achievements reflect our commitment to building a world-class tourism ecosystem,” Shadiyev said.
A major milestone came in April, when over 1 million foreign tourists visited Uzbekistan in a single month — a national record.
Shadiyev attributes this growth to visa policy reforms, infrastructure upgrades, and active global engagement. “We’re not only opening our doors wider; we’re creating lasting experiences for visitors,” he said.
Looking ahead, Uzbekistan aims to further increase both international arrivals and tourism export volumes in 2025. The government is systematically working toward these goals by investing in digital transformation, human capital, and diversified tourism offerings.
Four seasons, one destination
Positioned at the crossroads of the Great Silk Road, Uzbekistan has long served as a bridge between East and West. Shadiyev highlighted the country’s unique geographic and cultural positioning: “We’re the heart of Central Asia — no regional tour is complete without including Uzbekistan.”
What makes Uzbekistan truly special, he said, is its year-round appeal. In spring, visitors celebrate Navruz, the festival of renewal, and explore blooming gardens, vibrant bazaars, and the historic cities of Tashkent, Samarkand, Bukhara, and Khiva.
Summer brings tourists to mountain resorts and natural lakes, rich fruit harvests, and traditional crafts festivals.
Winter offers skiing and tranquil nature retreats, while autumn is ideal for cultural immersion and warm Uzbek hospitality.
“Every season offers a new story, a new flavor,” Shadiyev said.
The country’s legacy is underscored by its many UNESCO World Heritage Sites, including Samarkand, Bukhara, and Khiva. Uzbekistan is also witnessing a boom in niche tourism markets, including ziyarat, or pilgrimage tourism, ecotourism, domestic travel, and culinary tours.
Uzbekistan’s rise on the global travel radar is also backed by international accolades.
The country was named the Most Desirable Emerging Destination by Wanderlust, UK; won the tourism in the CIS award from Russian Traveler; and was featured among the Top 25 Destinations of 2025 by both BBC Travel and The New York Times.
Gulf travelers drawn to shared culture
When asked about Uzbekistan’s appeal to Arab travelers, particularly from the Gulf region, Shadiyev emphasized deep-rooted cultural and spiritual ties.
“Our shared Islamic heritage and atmosphere of religious respect make Uzbekistan especially attractive to Gulf visitors,” he said.
Khiva’s designation as the 2024 Tourism Capital of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation reflects this connection.
Other key events include the Economic Cooperation Organization’s tourism forum in Shakhrisabz, which spotlighted opportunities in religious and cultural travel.
Uzbekistan is enhancing its appeal through substance and strategy.
A 30-day visa-free regime now applies to citizens of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, as well as those of Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
Direct flights from Gulf capitals are expanding, and tour operators are curating experiences tailored to Arab travelers.
The country offers a rich mix of gastronomy — including signature dishes like plov, manti, and shurpa — as well as ethno-tourism experiences in traditional villages, and a vibrant calendar of music, art, and food festivals.
Uzbekistan is also rolling out a UN tourism platform and a unified tourist card integrating visa services, tickets, and discounts.
“We’re not just promoting Uzbekistan; we’re building a seamless visitor experience,” Shadiyev added.
Vision rooted in heritage and openness
As the interview concluded, Shadiyev returned to a theme central to Uzbekistan’s tourism push: openness. “We are a country that welcomes the world — with history in our stones and hospitality in our hearts,” he said.
The Tashkent International Investment Forum served as the perfect setting for this conversation, reflecting Uzbekistan’s economic momentum and its growing network of global partnerships — none more vibrant than those flourishing through tourism.
As Shadiyev put it, quoting an old proverb: “It’s better to see something once than hear about it a hundred times.”
Oil Updates — prices rise as US-China talks counter OPEC supply worries
SINGAPORE: Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of US-China talks that could pave the way for easing trade tensions and improve fuel demand.
Brent crude futures rose 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $67.26 a barrel by 09:45 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 18 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $65.47.
On Monday, Brent had risen to $67.19, the highest since April 28, buoyed by the prospect of a US-China trade deal.
US-China trade talks were set to continue for a second day in London as top officials aimed to ease tensions that have expanded from tariffs to rare earth curbs, risking global supply chain disruptions and slower growth.
Prices have recovered as demand concerns have faded with the trade talks between Washington and Beijing and a favourable US jobs report, while there are risks to North American supply due to wildfires in Canada, Goldman Sachs analysts said.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the talks with China were going well and he was “only getting good reports” from his team in London.
A trade deal between the US and China could support the global economic outlook and boost demand for commodities including oil.
Elsewhere, Iran said it would soon hand a counter-proposal for a nuclear deal to the US in response to a US offer that Tehran deems “unacceptable,” while Trump made clear that the two sides remained at odds over whether the country would be allowed to continue enriching uranium on Iranian soil.
Iran is the third-largest producer among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and any easing of US sanctions on Iran would allow it to export more oil, weighing on global crude prices.
Meanwhile, a Reuters survey found that OPEC oil output rose in May, although the increase was limited as Iraq pumped below target to compensate for earlier overproduction and Saudi Arabia and the UAE made smaller hikes than allowed.
OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world’s oil and includes OPEC members and allies such as Russia, is accelerating its plan to unwind its most recent layer of output cuts.
“The prospect of further hikes in OPEC supply continues to hang over the market,” Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in a note.
“A permanent shift to a market driven strategy (in OPEC) would push the oil market into a sizeable surplus in H2 2025 and almost surely lead to lower oil prices.”
