NEW DELHI: A slowdown in India’s economy in the last quarter will increase calls for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to step up reforms but was less severe than feared, giving the central bank ammunition to resist government pressure to cut interest rates.
Gross domestic product expanded 5.3 percent in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, as a manufacturing slump took the bounce out of Asia’s third-largest economy. Growth in the previous quarter was at a 2-1/2 year high of 5.7 percent.
Thanks to growth in services and stronger-than-expected farming after a bad monsoon, the reading was higher than predicted by economists polled by Reuters, who on average forecast growth of 5.1 percent.
“Now the onus is on the government to boost growth by reviving the investment climate and get reforms moving,” said Shivom Chakrabarti, Senior Economist with HDFC bank. “That will have a more pronounced impact on growth in the next fiscal year.”
Worried by the growth performance, and encouraged by low oil prices and falling inflation, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will reiterate his request that Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan cut interest rates when the central bank holds it policy review on Dec. 2, ministry officials have told Reuters.
Rajan can be expected to argue that with the slowdown not as severe as some forecast, inflation concerns carry more weight.
“If it was a very, very low number, there would have been pressure on the governor to act immediately. The better than expected overall GDP growth gives him that cushion” to wait, said Upasna Bhardwaj, Economist at ING Vysya Bank.
Economists polled by Reuters said a cut was unlikely, although markets have priced in a 25 basis point cut in the repo rate to 7.75 percent.
India is behind China, but among other large emerging economies it fares relatively well. On Friday, Brazil crawled from recession with quarterly growth of 0.1 percent.
CONSOLIDATED POWER
Elected in May with the first single party majority since the early 1980s, Modi was expected to live up to his market-friendly reputation by aggressively pursuing a reform agenda to remove obstacles to India’s industrialization.
Instead, his government has consolidated power by winning provincial elections to gain control of key states while offering little in the way of substantial new legislation.
The measures Modi has taken so far, including allowing more foreign investment in defense and construction, slashing red tape for businesses and ending major fuel subsidies, have yet to change the mood on the ground.
Poor corporate earnings in the September quarter highlighted weak consumer demand.
The global outlook has not helped, with India’s exports slowing in the second quarter after orders from Europe dropped. Trends suggest overall growth will likely be at the lower end of the government’s 5.4-5.9 percent target for the fiscal
year.
That would be an improvement on the previous two years of sub-five percent growth, the weakest phase since the 1980s, but still far too slow to generate the jobs needed for India’s rapidly expanding workforce.
Reflecting the goodwill and hope placed in Modi, the Indian share market is the best performer in Asia so far this year.
The nationalist premier has the backing of big business, but industrialists are still waiting for signs to convince them to boost spending on plant and machinery.
Data on Friday showed that seven months into the financial year the fiscal deficit is at 90 percent of its full year target as tax income fell short. Jaitley may choose spending cuts to meet his deficit goal, at the cost of further pressure on demand.
The government is hopeful of pushing several more reforms in the next few weeks, including looser foreign investment restrictions on insurance, overhauling land laws and new tax measures, but must overcome opposition in parliament.
This week parliament approved changes to labor laws to loosen regulation on small businesses.
In the new year, all eyes will be on Jaitley’s February budget.
Some analysts say markets could turn on the government if it fails to prove its commitment to structural reform.
Indian economic growth slows to 5.3%
Indian economic growth slows to 5.3%
Saudi crude output hits 8.96m bpd in March: JODI data
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production rose to 8.96 million barrels per day in March, reflecting a 0.11 percent monthly increase, according to the latest Joint Organizations Data Initiative data.
According to the database, crude exports fell by 12.11 percent month on month to 5.75 million bpd.
Refinery crude exports rose 10.3 percent during this period to 1.55 million bpd. The uptick was driven primarily by diesel shipments, which jumped 20.66 percent from the previous month to 806,000 bpd.
It also accounted for the largest share of refined product exports in March at 52 percent, followed by motor and aviation gasoline at 17 percent, and fuel oil at 12 percent.
Total refinery output reached 2.94 million bpd in March, a 12.32 percent monthly increase, with diesel comprising 42 percent of refined products, motor and aviation gasoline 24 percent, and fuel oil 15 percent.
Domestic demand for refined petroleum products increased by 223,000 bpd in March compared to the previous month, reaching 2.22 million bpd.
On an annual basis, demand rose by 5.07 percent, equivalent to 107,000 bpd.
The Kingdom’s slight increase in crude production across the month came amid a broader strategic pivot within OPEC+, which has agreed to significantly boost oil output starting in June. The alliance announced an additional 411,000 bpd increase for June, following a similar adjustment made for May.
This marks a continuation of the group’s recent efforts to accelerate the return of previously curtailed supply to the global market. The upcoming increase is expected to add further downward pressure on prices, which have already been trending lower due to ample inventories, modest international demand growth, and increasing non-OPEC output.
Direct crude usage
Saudi Arabia’s direct crude oil burn rose to 383,000 bpd in March, reflecting a 35.3 percent increase from the previous month.
Direct crude burn refers to the use of unrefined crude oil for electricity generation, rather than for export or refining.
The increase came amid the seasonal ramp-up in cooling needs as temperatures begin to rise heading into the warmer months.
Although the Kingdom has made substantial progress in expanding its natural gas infrastructure to reduce reliance on direct crude burn, fluctuations still occur, particularly in transitional months like March, when energy demand begins to shift but supply systems haven’t fully ramped up.
Saudi Arabia launches BAE Systems Arabian Industries to boost local manufacturing
- Company results from the merger of two major players in the defense ecosystem
- Merger was finalized nearly four months ago to consolidate operational strengths
JEDDAH: Defense manufacturing is set to advance in Saudi Arabia with the launch of BAE Systems Arabian Industries, a new entity aimed at accelerating localization and strengthening the Kingdom’s military industrial base.
The company results from the merger of two major players in the defense ecosystem — BAE Systems Saudi Development and Training, which focuses on capability building, and the Saudi Maintenance and Supply Chain Management Co., a provider of supply chain and technical services, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
The move marks further progress in the Kingdom’s push to expand its defense capabilities, with localization of military spending rising to 19.35 percent in 2024, up from just 4 percent in 2018. The Kingdom aims to surpass 50 percent by 2030, in line with Vision 2030’s goal of a self-sufficient defense sector.
Ahmad Abdulaziz Al-Ohali, governor of the General Authority for Military Industries, inaugurated BAE Systems Arabian Industries at an official ceremony held at the company’s new headquarters in Riyadh, attended by several officials and defense industry leaders.
In a post on his X handle, the governor said: “This will enhance local content and open up broad horizons for national and international companies to contribute to building a solid and sustainable military-industrial system, to enhance local content in terms of human and technical cadres.”
The merger was finalized nearly four months ago to consolidate operational strengths and leverage over three decades of experience in defense training, capability development, and logistics.
“He pointed out that the integration of national and global expertise within this unified entity reflects the confidence of major companies in the attractive investment environment provided by the authority in cooperation with its partners in both the public and private sectors,” the SPA report stated.
Al-Ohali noted that the initiative would play a key role in transferring knowledge and building national expertise, supporting the Kingdom’s goal of localizing over 50 percent of military spending by 2030.
He reaffirmed the authority’s support for initiatives that boost local content and create opportunities for both national and international companies to help build a strong and sustainable military-industrial sector.
In a LinkedIn post, Abdulatif Al-Shaikh, the new company’s CEO, said: “We are guided by a clear vision to be the leading Saudi company in the defense sector by supporting and developing capabilities within the Kingdom and across the region, in alignment with Vision 2030.”
In another development, Saudi Arabia recently completed production of its first locally manufactured components for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD system launcher, in Jeddah.
This follows localization agreements signed during the 2024 World Defense Show and reflects increasing technical collaboration with global defense firms such as Lockheed Martin.
Egypt’s exports to Lebanon up 43.8% across 2024: CAPMAS
- Value of imports declined by 2.3%, totaling $237.7 million
- Trade exchange between Egypt and Lebanon reached $1 billion in 2024
RIYADH: The value of Egyptian exports to Lebanon saw a 43.8 percent year-on-year surge in 2024 to reach $762.8 million, according to new figures.
Data from Egypt’s Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics also showed that imports from the Middle Eastern country declined by 2.3 percent, totaling $237.7 million during the same period.
These shifts in trade come amid broader economic trends. The region’s gross domestic product grew by 1.8 percent in 2024, reaching $3.6 trillion despite ongoing challenges, according to a March report by the Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation, or Dhaman.
Looking ahead, this economic momentum appears set to continue. Moody’s projects 2.9 percent growth for the region in 2025, up from 2.1 percent in 2024, while maintaining a stable outlook for the region’s sovereign credit fundamentals over the next 12 months.
The newly released CAPMAS report revealed there was “an increase in the value of trade exchange between Egypt and Lebanon, reaching $1 billion in 2024, compared to $774 million in 2023, an increase of 29.3 percent.”
The main export groups of goods to Lebanon during 2024 included fuels, mineral oils, and distillation products worth $215 million, iron and iron products worth $65 million, and cement worth $55 million.
The value of fruit and vegetable exports stood at $48 million, while sugar and sugar products were worth $41 million.
As for the main import groups of goods from Lebanon during the same year, they entailed iron and iron products worth $118 million, fruits and vegetables worth $72 million, and electrical appliances and equipment worth $22 million.
The value of plastics imports stood at $4 million, while dyeing and coating extracts were also worth $4 million.
The CAPMAS data also shed light on how the value of Lebanese investments in Egypt amounted to $51.2 million during the fiscal year 2023/2024, compared to $51.4 million during the fiscal year 2022/2023.
Egyptian investments in Lebanon amounted to $9.7 million during the fiscal year 2023/2024, compared to $7.9 million during the fiscal year 2022/2023.
“The value of remittances from Egyptians working in Lebanon amounted to $42.9 million during the fiscal year 2023/2024, compared to $38.1 million during the fiscal year 2022/2023, while the value of remittances from Lebanese working in Egypt amounted to $3.5 million during the fiscal year 2022/2023, compared to $3.7 million during the fiscal year 2022/2023,” the CAPMAS report added.
According to estimates, the number of Egyptians residing in Lebanon reached 11,300 by the end of 2023, the report concluded.
Invest Qatar launches $1bn incentive program to accelerate investment
- Move was announced during the 5th Qatar Economic Forum
- Program offers financial packages for local and international investors covering up to 40% of expenses
DUBAI: Investment promotion agency Invest Qatar has launched a $1 billion program aimed at accelerating investment inflows and boosting diversification of the Qatari economy, it said on Wednesday.
Announced during the 5th Qatar Economic Forum, the program offers financial packages for local and international investors covering up to 40 percent of expenses such as setup costs, construction, leases and staff for a five-year period.
It said the first phase of the program will offer four off-the-shelf packages designed to stimulate fresh investment, support the expansion and digitization of existing facilities, create high-skilled employment, and promote knowledge transfer.
The Advanced Industries Package targets high-value, technology-intensive sectors such as pharmaceuticals, chemicals, automotive, and electronics.
The Logistics Package encourages investments in infrastructure, automation and advanced logistics services, while the Technology Package seeks to develop the digital economy through support for cybersecurity, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and data-driven innovation.
The Lusail financial services package aims to advance fintech, insurance, asset and wealth management, while incentivising firms to establish offices in Lusail, the country’s main financial district.
Kuwait sovereign wealth fund head says investors reduce US exposure at their ‘own risk’
DOHA: The head of the Kuwait Investment Authority, which manages almost $1 trillion in assets, said the sovereign wealth fund is committed to investing in the US and that investors cut allocations to US assets at their own risk.
Some global investors have ditched US assets in recent weeks on fears that US President Donald Trump’s overhaul of global trade may hurt the US economy, and could cause deeper long-term damage.
The trend looks set to continue, given that a record number of managers have said they plan to keep cutting their exposure to US assets, according to BofA research.
Kuwait has been investing in the US market for a “long time” and that “won’t change,” KIA Managing Director Sheikh Saoud Salem Abdulaziz Al-Sabah said at an investment conference in the Qatari capital on Wednesday.
“I would say it very bluntly, underweight America at your own risk,” he said.
Last week, Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating by one notch, citing concerns about the nation’s growing $36 trillion debt pile, which could make investors more cautious and drive up borrowing costs across the economy.
“They (investors) are merely looking at equity markets, but they’re not taking into fact the US has the largest fixed income market, the US has the largest private equity market, the real estate market, infrastructure and credit,” Al-Sabah said.
“I think the US has the breadth and depth to sustain its exceptionalism and it has the rule of law as well,” he said.
