Oil demand slows as global economy falters

Updated 12 August 2012
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Oil demand slows as global economy falters

LONDON: Oil demand will rise more slowly than expected next year as economic growth falters, pushing up stockpiles of fuel worldwide and offering some relief to consumers facing high prices.
The West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency (IEA), said it had cut its estimates of oil use worldwide for several years, trimming its 2013 demand forecast by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the light of a "worrying slowdown" in global economic activity.
"Lower economic growth is feeding through to slower oil demand all round," said David Fyfe, head of the IEA's markets division. "Global inventories have risen, and the oil market looks comfortably supplied."
The IEA's monthly market report on Friday echoed pessimistic forecasts this week by the US government and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The three top energy market forecasters all say output of crude oil has exceeded demand by a wide margin in the first half of this year, filling up stocks of oil and offering a sizeable cushion to cope with any unexpected shock to supplies.
This should help balance the impact on oil prices of political tensions such as the stand-off between the West and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program.
"The significant stock builds that occurred in the first half of 2012 will help relieve global oil markets in the second half," the U. government's Energy Information (EIA)Administration said.
The EIA expects oil inventories in the developed industrialised economies to rise to 2.62 billion barrels, or 57 days of forward cover by the end of this year, "which is among the highest end-of-year levels in the last decade because of the decline in OECD consumption".
OPEC, which supplies more than a third of the world's oil, says it has been pumping more than 2 million bpd more oil than needed for the last few months, filling up tanks worldwide.
The producers' group said in its report that economic slowdown could depress oil demand growth further.
"The gloomy picture could reduce the world oil demand growth forecast by 20 percent next year," OPEC said.
David Hufton, managing director of brokers PVM in London, reflected a generally bearish market response to the outlook for OPEC oil producers: "If this were a company reporting, it is not a report that would lift its share price."
However, security of supply is still a nagging worry.
"The geopolitical dimension is likely to continue to provide something of a floor for prices. The issue of Iran will likely continue to weigh heavy on the market through the second half of 2012," the IEA said in its monthly report.
"Moreover, there is a risk that recent progress in restoring output from Libya, Iraq and Nigeria could be jeopardised if recent political and civil tensions worsen."
Oil prices plunged below $90 a barrel in June after Saudi Arabia stepped in to raise production when Iranian exports fell due to Western sanctions.
North Sea Brent crude oil has since recovered to above $110, supported by Iranian tensions and investors' hopes for new money printing programmes from global central banks.
But supply and demand fundamentals of the market are weak.
The IEA said it had revised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2013 down by 150,000 bpd to 830,000 bpd, below the growth of 870,000 bpd expected in 2012.
"The latest (Chinese) data reveals a sharp deceleration in momentum compared to the double-digit expansions seen at the beginning of 2011," the IEA said.
On the supply side, global oil production in July stood 2.6 million bpd higher than a year ago, with 80 percent of the increase deriving from OPEC, it said. The agency said exports of Iranian oil in July fell to multi-year lows of 1 million bpd from 1.74 million in June, but it added that sales of Iranian oil to major consumers could start picking up this month.

"There is scope for imports from Iran to recover modestly from September onwards, albeit we retain our existing assumption that around 1 million bpd of Iranian oil may struggle to find buyers in the second half of 2012."
"An observed decline of 14 million barrels in Iranian floating storage in July also suggests that some extra oil is en route to customers for August/September delivery," the IEA added.

 


Global oil demand rose 1.5% in 2024 despite production dip: OPEC report

Updated 02 July 2025
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Global oil demand rose 1.5% in 2024 despite production dip: OPEC report

RIYADH: Global oil demand climbed by 1.49 million barrels per day, or 1.5 percent, year on year in 2024 to reach an average of 103.84 million bpd, according to newly released data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Demand rose across nearly all regions, with the strongest gains recorded in non-OECD Asia, particularly China and India, followed by the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and OECD Europe. Within OPEC member countries, oil demand rose by 0.12 million bpd, or 1.3 percent, year on year.

However, total world crude oil production declined for the first time since 2020, falling by 0.77 million bpd, or 1 percent, to average 72.58 million bpd in 2024. OPEC attributed the drop to lower output from both its members and non-OPEC producers participating in the Declaration of Cooperation.

OPEC nations cut production by 0.57 million bpd, or 2.1 percent, while non-OPEC DoC participants saw a steeper decline of 0.78 million bpd, or 5.2 percent. In contrast, crude production from countries not involved in the DoC rose by 0.58 million bpd, or 1.8 percent.

Refining capacity

Global refining capacity increased by 1.04 million bpd in 2024 to reach 103.80 million bpd. Most of this expansion came from the non-OECD region, notably China, India, and the Middle East.

For the first time since 2019, members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development also saw a modest increase in refining capacity—up by 0.16 million bpd—driven by additions in the Americas, although partially offset by closures in Europe and Asia Pacific.

Refinery throughput also saw a modest rise, growing by 0.52 million bpd, or 0.6 percent, to 85.97 million bpd. This was largely due to increased run rates in OECD Americas and non-OECD regions, including the Middle East, Africa, India, and Other Asia.

Exports down, product shipments up

OPEC’s crude oil exports declined by 0.70 million bpd, or 3.5 percent, in 2024 to average 19.01 million bpd. Asia continued to be the primary destination for OPEC crude, receiving 13.67 million bpd, or 71.9 percent of total exports.

In contrast, exports of petroleum products from OPEC members rose by 0.29 million bpd, or 6.1 percent, reaching an average of 5.07 million bpd during the year.

Global proven crude oil reserves stood at 1,567 billion barrels at the end of 2024, marking a slight increase of 2 billion barrels, or 0.1 percent, from the previous year. Proven reserves in OPEC members remained unchanged at 1,241 billion barrels.


Gulf bourses end mixed on US tariff uncertainty

Updated 02 July 2025
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Gulf bourses end mixed on US tariff uncertainty

  • Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index edged 0.1% higher
  • Dubai’s main share index dropped 0.4%

LONDON: Stock markets in the Gulf ended mixed on Wednesday as investors monitored global trade developments ahead of the US’ potential re-imposition of sweeping tariffs on July 9. 

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he was not thinking of extending the July 9 deadline for countries to negotiate trade deals with the US, and continued to express doubt that an agreement could be reached with Japan. 

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index edged 0.1 percent higher, after two consecutive sessions of losses, helped by 1.7 percent rise in Saudi Arabian Mining Company. 

The cautious mood dominating the region contributed to mixed sector performances, said Joseph Dahrieh, managing principal at Tickmill. 

“Investors are awaiting further developments to gain more clarity, while low oil prices continue to pose a risk, despite a positive economic outlook,” he said. 

Among gainers, oil giant Saudi Aramco rose 0.8 percent. 

Oil futures edged up as Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog and markets weighed expectations of more supply from major producers next month, while the US dollar softened further. 

Dubai’s main share index dropped 0.4 percent, hit by a 1.3 percent fall in toll operator Salik Company. 

Separately, Dubai commuters may soon have a new way to beat traffic, as Joby Aviation successfully completed the first test flight of its fully-electric air taxi in the emirate this week — a significant step toward the city’s goal of integrating airborne transport into its mobility network as early as next year. 

In Abu Dhabi, the index eased 0.1 percent, while the Qatari index closed flat. 

A report on Tuesday suggested that the US labor market stayed resilient in May, sharpening the focus on US nonfarm payrolls figures due on Thursday as investors try to gauge when the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates next. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday reiterated the US central bank’s plans to “wait and learn more” before lowering rates. 

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index added 0.4 percent, with Talaat Moustafa Holding rising 0.9 percent. 


Closing Bell: Saudi main index inches up to close at 11,129

Updated 02 July 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index inches up to close at 11,129

  • MSCI Tadawul 30 Index gained 0.24% to finish at 1,423.94
  • Parallel market Nomu increased 0.48% to settle at 27,375.84

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index gained 8.04 points, or 0.07, to close at 11,129.64 on Wednesday. 

Total trading turnover reached SR5.41 billion ($1.44 billion), with 103 stocks posting gains and 140 declining. 

The Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, also recorded an increase, gaining 130.72 points, or 0.48 percent, to settle at 27,375.84, as 32 stocks advanced and 41 retreated.

The MSCI Tadawul 30 Index also gained 3.34 points, or 0.24 percent, to finish at 1,423.94. 

BAAN Holding Group Co. was the best-performing stock of the session, with its share price rising 9.73 percent to SR2.48. Saudi Industrial Export Co. followed with a 7.66 percent increase to SR2.39. 

Other gainers included Almunajem Foods Co., which rose to a fresh year high on Wednesday, closing at SR77 with a 5.77 percent increase. 

On the losing side, Buruj Cooperative Insurance Co. saw the steepest decline, falling 3.24 percent to SR17.92. Saudi Industrial Development Co. dropped 3.07 percent to SR30.9, and National Shipping Co. of Saudi Arabia declined 3.06 percent to SR23.75. 

On the announcements front, Saudi Arabian Mining Co., also known as Ma’aden, finalized its acquisition of all shares owned by AWA Saudi and Alcoa Saudi in two of its major subsidiaries, according to a statement on the Saudi Stock Exchange.

The move follows the approval by Ma’aden’s extraordinary general assembly on June 25 to increase the company’s capital through a share issuance as consideration for acquiring the remaining stakes in Ma’aden Bauxite and Alumina Co. and Ma’aden Aluminium Co.

According to Ma’aden, the acquisition was made effective, and share allocation procedures were completed on July 1. The newly issued shares were deposited in favor of AWA Saudi and Alcoa Saudi, with the holdings officially listed on the same day.

The acquisition involved Ma’aden purchasing AWA Saudi’s entire stake in Ma’aden Bauxite and Alumina Co., totaling 128,010,000 ordinary shares — equivalent to 25.1 percent of the company’s issued capital.

It also included Alcoa Saudi’s full shareholding in Ma’aden Aluminium Co., amounting to 165,001,125 ordinary shares, or 25.1 percent of the company’s issued capital.

To execute the transaction, Ma’aden increased its capital from SR38.03 billion to SR38.89 billion — a 2.26 percent rise. As a result, the total number of its ordinary shares grew from 3.80 billion to 3.89 billion.

Under the new share distribution, Alcoa Saudi received 67,612,162 new ordinary shares, representing 1.74 percent of Ma’aden’s post-acquisition capital, while AWA Saudi received 18,365,385, or 0.47 percent of the capital.

Additionally, Ma’aden paid AWA Saudi SR562.5 million in cash as part of the transaction. The company emphasized that the acquisition does not involve any related parties.

The financial implications of the deal will be reflected in Ma’aden’s consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ending June 30. 

Ma’aden’s share price closed 1.72 percent higher to reach SR53.25.

Saudi National Bank announced its plan to redeem its SR2 billion tier-1 capital sukuk in full on July 15, marking the 10th anniversary of the instrument’s issuance.

The sukuk, which was launched on July 15, 2015, will be redeemed at face value — 100 percent of the issue price — in accordance with the terms and conditions set at issuance, the bank stated in a press release published on Tadawul.

The move follows Saudi National Bank’s securing of the necessary regulatory approval to proceed with the redemption. The full principal amount, along with any accrued but unpaid periodic distributions, will be paid to sukuk holders on the redemption date.

The SR2 billion sukuk issuance comprised 2,000 certificates, each with a face value of SR1 million. It represented 100 percent of the issued sukuk under this offering. Following the redemption, the total value of the sukuk issuance will be reduced to zero.

This redemption reflects the bank’s capital management strategy and its ongoing commitment to optimizing its financial structure.

The bank’s share price closed 0.34 percent higher on Wednesday’s session to SR35.84.


International visitor spending in Saudi Arabia hits $13bn in Q1 

Updated 02 July 2025
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International visitor spending in Saudi Arabia hits $13bn in Q1 

  • Rise pushed Kingdom’s travel account surplus to SR26.78 billion
  • Saudi Arabia welcomed 115.9 million tourists in 2024

RIYADH: International tourists spent SR49.37 billion ($13.16 billion) in Saudi Arabia during the first quarter of 2025, a 10 percent increase compared to the same period last year, recent data showed. 

According to figures released by the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, the rise pushed the Kingdom’s travel account surplus to SR26.78 billion, up 11.7 percent year on year, underlining the sector’s growing contribution to the country’s non-oil economy. 

This comes as Saudi Arabia accelerates its Vision 2030 push to position tourism as a pillar of economic diversification, raising its target to 150 million annual visitors by 2030 after surpassing the 100 million mark ahead of schedule. 

In 2024, the sector hit a milestone, with international tourism revenue soaring 148 percent from 2019 — the fastest growth among G20 nations. 

Domestic trips almost doubled, according to the annual report figures, rising from 47.8 million to 86.2 million. Shuttertsock

Saudi Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb, commenting on the sector’s performance following the release of the Ministry of Tourism’s 2024 Annual Statistical Report in June, said the document “showcases the sector’s remarkable growth and its role in enabling Saudi Vision 2030, a record performance achieved with the support and guidance of the Kingdom’s visionary leadership.” 

The report said that Saudi Arabia welcomed 115.9 million tourists in 2024 — 29.7 million inbound and 86.2 million domestic trips — easily surpassing the Vision 2030 milestone of 100 million visits, five years ahead of schedule. 

Total visitor spending reached SR283.8 billion, of which SR168.5 billion came from international travelers and SR115.3 billion from domestic tourists. 

Since Vision 2030’s launch, Saudi tourism has expanded at breakneck speed. Inbound arrivals have climbed from 17.5 million in 2019 to 29.7 million in 2024, a 70 percent jump, while their spending ballooned by 63 percent, from SR103.4 billion to SR168.5 billion over the same period. 

Domestic trips almost doubled, according to the annual report figures, rising from 47.8 million to 86.2 million over the same period. 

The sector’s success is underpinned by multibillion-riyal investments in destination infrastructure. The first island resorts of the Red Sea Project will open later this year, while construction races ahead at NEOM’s Trojena mountain resort and Riyadh’s heritage-rich Diriyah Gate. 

The Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA. Wikipedia

Developers are lining up more than 320,000 hotel rooms, and Red Sea International Airport is expected to start commercial flights in 2025, sharpening long-haul connectivity for high-end travelers. 

Global recognition has followed, with UN Tourism data, cited in the Annual Statistical Report, showing Saudi Arabia ranked first among G20 nations for growth in international tourist numbers in 2024 and second globally compared to pre-pandemic levels. 

Speaking in April 2024, Ahmad Arab, founder of tourism and hospitality firm DRB Arabia and former deputy minister at the Ministry of Tourism, told GLG Insights the industry is on track to create 1 million related jobs by 2030, solidifying its place as a cornerstone of the Kingdom’s diversifying non-oil economy. 

A notable trend, according to the Ministry of Tourism’s annual report, is the shift toward leisure travel. Non-religious visits accounted for 59 percent of inbound arrivals in 2024, up from 44 percent in 2019, as streamlined e-visas, entertainment seasons, and high-profile sporting events broadened the Kingdom’s appeal. 

Egypt remained the top source market with 3.2 million visitors, followed by Pakistan with 2.8 million and Bahrain with 2.6 million. Makkah Al-Mukarramah led all destinations with 17.4 million overnight foreign visitors, while Riyadh and Jeddah also attracted millions. 

Domestic tourism is expanding in parallel: trips rose 5 percent to 86.2 million in 2024, fueling record domestic outlays of SR115.3 billion. Leisure remained the top purpose, helped by school-holiday campaigns and new regional festivals. 

With first-quarter spending at an all-time high and visitor volumes already outpacing long-term targets, Riyadh’s next challenge is to sustain capacity growth while maintaining service quality.


Saudi Arabia, Morocco set to boost economic ties with focus on trade, sustainable development

Updated 02 July 2025
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Saudi Arabia, Morocco set to boost economic ties with focus on trade, sustainable development

  • Saudi delegation held several meetings with ministers to discuss strategic trade and investment issues
  • Morocco ranks as the Kingdom’s 57th largest trading partner in terms of exports

JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia and Morocco are set to enhance economic ties by expanding trade and cooperation in agriculture, renewable energy, and sustainable development following a Saudi business delegation’s visit to Rabat.

As part of a business trip that began on June 29 to Mauritania and Morocco, a delegation from the Saudi Federation of Commerce, led by chairman Hassan Moejeb Al-Huwaizi and joined by 30 top investors and company officials, visited Rabat to explore investment opportunities and enhance cooperation between the public and private sectors. 

The delegation held several meetings with ministers to discuss strategic trade and investment issues, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

The visit aligns with the SFC’s strategy to enhance economic cooperation and facilitate investment, reflecting the shared vision for the future between the Kingdom and Morocco. Their trade volume reached SR5 billion ($1.33 billion) in 2024, with exports from Saudi Arabia totaling SR4.3 billion and imports amounting to SR640 million.

According to the SFC, Morocco ranks as the Kingdom’s 57th largest trading partner in terms of exports and 51st in terms of imports. Saudi Arabia’s main exports to Morocco include cars and vehicles, insulated wires, chemical fertilizers, and women’s clothing. The primary imports from Morocco comprise refined petroleum, cars and vehicles, vehicle accessories, and wheat.

“The delegation began its meetings with the Minister of Industry and Trade, Ryad Mezzour, to discuss ways to enhance commercial cooperation and expand the volume of trade exchanges between the two countries,” SPA reported.

It added that the delegation also met with Minister of Agriculture, Maritime Fisheries, Rural Development, Water, and Forests Ahmed El-Bouari, who highlighted the significant potential in the agricultural and maritime sectors, opening new horizons for cooperation in production and export.

The meetings included a session with Karim Zaidan, the delegate-minister to the head of government in charge of investment, convergence, and the evaluation of public policies, during which investment opportunities and joint projects contributing to sustainable development were discussed, as per SPA.

The report said that the Saudi delegation also met with Minister of Energy Transition and Sustainable Development Leila Benali to explore cooperation in renewable energy, with a focus on exchanging experiences and expertise in this vital sector.

Morocco’s economy is demonstrating continued resilience and diversification, with the country’s foreign trade volume reaching $120 billion in 2024, according to data from the FSC.

The nation’s gross domestic product for the same year is estimated at $155 billion, underscoring sustained activity across key sectors. The country holds a BB+ credit rating and ranks 60th globally in terms of economic performance.

The services sector remains the backbone of the Moroccan economy, accounting for 54.2 percent of the nation’s GDP. It is followed by industry at 24.5 percent and agriculture at 11.06 percent, reflecting a balanced contribution from both modern and traditional economic drivers.

In terms of trade composition, Morocco’s top imported goods include fruits, textiles, and transport equipment. Meanwhile, the country’s main exports comprise chemical products, industrial goods, as well as leather and rubber.