LONDON: Oil prices could drop by as much as $15 per barrel should countries such as Libya restore production and sanctions on Iran be eased, forcing some of the most expensive US oil projects to stop pumping, the head of the world’s largest oil trader said.
Ian Taylor, chief executive of Swiss trading house Vitol , said he also expected a number of European refineries to close in the next few years under tremendous competitive pressure from rivals in the Middle East and Asia.
“We see a constant structural length in the dated Brent market and the West African sweet market and we are not quite sure how it clears yet,” Taylor told the Reuters Global Commodities Summit.
“If Libya does come back, God knows where that oil goes... And goodness knows what happens if Iran comes back.”
“Perhaps the only way the market can actually clear properly is to begin to threaten the lower ranges, and therefore begin to threaten some of the higher cost developments and production.”
The US is set to become the world’s biggest oil producer next year, overtaking Russia, and a spike in US oil production has helped offset big supply outages from Libya, Iraq, Iran and Nigeria in recent months.
Taylor said that if most supply problems were solved, European benchmark Brent prices could come down to $90-$95 per barrel from the current $105 while US WTI prices may decline to $80-$85 from the current $95.
“Then I think OPEC might begin to get worried,” said Taylor.
Vitol made a foray into European refining last year and Taylor said the company could look at new opportunities in the future although he said the sector would have to shrink as it faces very low profitability on refining crude into products.
“It has been a disaster over the last two or three months as you all know... I believe that significant portions of the European refining business probably need to close over the next three or four years,” he said.
Taylor said he could see up to one million barrels per day or a roughly one tenth of current capacity in Europe closing down, especially outdated refineries in the Mediterranean.
“I think you’re going to see a constant battle between the big European majors, Europe, the politicians about this... I’m not sure what the result is going to be but the answer is we know the UK does not need seven or eight refineries.”
He added that Vitol could still buy plants.
“It depends what else it brings. If it brings a lot of flow with it you could always value your refinery in a negative sense if there are a lot of other things you get with the deal. But certainly I don’t think you are going to see us keen to pay multiples for refining businesses.”
Vitol and most of its rivals such as Glencore or Gunvor have been chasing bigger trading volumes in recent years to compensate for shrinking profitability amid lower market volatility.
Taylor said he expected the trading environment to remain difficult as traders have to compete with traditional rivals such as oil majors but also increasingly with national oil companies aggressively pursuing incremental trading profits.
“I do expect it to be incredibly tough. I do expect to see a continuation of trading companies buying selective assets to try to increase their optimization possibilities. Volumes among the trading houses will probably come off a little bit rather than increase because at the end of the day demand for oil isn’t going up that much.”
GAS
Taylor said that unless oil prices dropped sharply, there were realistic prospects for liquefied natural gas (LNG) to become a major fuel in the transport sector as big US and Chinese manufacturers were already shifting toward using gas.
“The pollution question in China is huge so they will shift more toward gas for transportation and in power (generation), no matter how high the price is,” Taylor said.
The move will come largely at the cost of lower coal use, which is dirtier than gas but is still the world’s dominant electricity fuel.
“I personally worry that coal is going to be a problem as demand will come off much faster than we think,” Taylor said.
Natural gas is currently less profitable as a fuel for generating power but the US boom in shale gas drilling has led to a collapse in gas prices there. The US is expected to begin exporting LNG by 2015, which many users in Europe and Asia hope will help bring down prices there as well.
Taylor said Vitol was unlikely to invest into LNG assets on a big scale but added that smaller floating LNG terminals could be an option.
In North America, Taylor said Vitol had made investments in pipeline and storage tank capacity in Texas’s Permian basin, but that the firm’s trading focus was likely to remain on seaborne shipments rather than competing directly with inland producers and refineries.
He said news that Philadelphia Energy Solutions’ 350,000-barrel-per-day refinery was bringing in up to one-fifth of the oil output from the Bakken shale fields in North Dakota may provide opportunities in finding homes for oil backed out of the US.
“I think it is significant that people like the Philadelphia refinery are buying in significant amounts of crude by rail, and they were previously one of the biggest buyers of Nigerian crude,” Taylor said.
“Now they’re going to be buying 250,000 barrels per day of railed Bakken crude and very little Nigerian, and that’s the bit of the trade we need to work on.”
US Gulf Coast refiners that benefit from the shale oil boom are supplying the US East Coast and Canada, which will require less North Sea and West African crude, Taylor said.
“Where exactly that crude oil price moves is still a very big question which we haven’t really got to grips with in 2013... I am hoping it will be European refinery systems that get a little bit of a break because obviously they’ve been struggling pretty badly over the last two or three months,” he said.
But at the same time, the increased flow of diesel from the US Gulf Coast to Europe “could potentially put a lot more pressure on margins in Europe and to a certain extent we are seeing that already.”
Asked whether Saudi Arabia would continue to sell large quantities of oil into the United States given the weak price relative to sales elsewhere, Taylor said he could see reasons for Saudi Arabia to keep doing this from a strategic perspective, but no rationale for other exporters.
“For Venezuela and Mexico, who in some ways have greater revenue concerns than Saudi Arabia, arguably they shouldn’t be putting any oil into the US at all at current differentials. The way differentials are at the moment, nobody should be exporting to the US at all.”
Top trader Vitol sees chance of steep oil price fall
Top trader Vitol sees chance of steep oil price fall
Saudi corporate lending fuels bank loans growth to near 2-year high of 12.46%
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s bank loans reached SR2.88 trillion ($768.93 billion) in October, a 12.46 percent annual growth and the highest in 20 months, official data showed.
According to figures from the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, this growth reflects strong corporate and personal lending trends, driven by the Kingdom’s expanding economic activities.
Corporate loans were the main driver, surging 15.77 percent to SR1.54 trillion. This increase highlights the significant contribution of the real estate, wholesale, retail, and manufacturing sectors to the Kingdom’s economic dynamism.
Real estate activities led the charge, representing 20.29 percent of corporate lending and growing by 27.37 percent to SR312.4 billion.
Wholesale and retail trade accounted for 13 percent of corporate lending, reaching SR200.63 billion with an annual growth rate of 9.06 percent.
The manufacturing sector, a key component of Vision 2030’s economic diversification goals, represented 11.68 percent of lending at SR180.05 billion.
Meanwhile, electricity, gas, and water supplies contributed 11.32 percent to the total, growing significantly by nearly 30 percent to reach SR174.57 billion.
Notably, professional, scientific, and technical activities, though holding a smaller 0.54 percent share of corporate credit, witnessed the most significant surge, with a 53.55 percent growth rate to SR8.27 billion.
On the personal loans side, which includes various financing options for individuals, the sector grew 8.89 percent annually to SR1.34 trillion. This expansion underscores the continued confidence in consumer lending and the Kingdom’s economic diversification strategies.
In October, Saudi banks’ loans-to-deposits ratio also increased to 80.73 percent, up from 79.69 percent in the same month of 2023, as per data from the SAMA.
The calculation includes loans minus provisions and commissions, providing a clearer view of actual lending capacity.
SAMA has set a regulatory limit of 90 percent for loans-to-deposits ratios, balancing banks’ lending capacity with liquidity stability while supporting economic growth through corporate and individual borrowing.
Compared to other GCC nations, such as the UAE where loans-to-deposits ratios can exceed 100 percent, SAMA’s cap reflects a more cautious approach, prioritizing liquidity stability in the banking sector.
Saudi Arabia’s corporate and real estate lending are experiencing unprecedented growth, fueled by a combination of favorable economic conditions, government initiatives, and strategic investments under Vision 2030.
As the Kingdom accelerates its transformation, the demand for financing across key sectors, particularly real estate, has surged, reflecting its rapid urbanization and infrastructure development.
The Saudi Central Bank’s decision to mirror the US Federal Reserve’s policies, reducing interest rates by 50 basis points in September and an additional 25 basis points in November, has created an attractive borrowing environment.
This rate adjustment is anticipated to further boost real estate lending, allowing developers and individuals to capitalize on lower financing costs.
Real estate development remains central to Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification goals. Under Vision 2030, initiatives to position Riyadh as a global business hub and the Regional Headquarters Program have significantly increased demand for commercial real estate.
These efforts are complemented by giga-projects like NEOM and Red Sea Global, which are redefining urban landscapes with sustainable and energy-efficient designs.
The Public Investment Fund’s commitment to green building practices, with over $19.4 billion allocated to eligible green projects, underscores the alignment between real estate growth and environmental sustainability.
In October, PIF highlighted its green bond investments, including $6.3 billion earmarked for green building projects. These investments aim to set new standards in energy efficiency, saving up to 20 percent of energy compared to conventional buildings and avoiding thousands of tons of carbon emissions annually.
Projects such as NEOM’s sustainable water infrastructure further illustrate how the Kingdom is integrating advanced sustainability measures into its development agenda.
Wholesale and retail market
The growing share of wholesale and retail trade lending by Saudi banks reflects the sector’s pivotal role in the Kingdom’s economic evolution.
This expansion is underpinned by a combination of government incentives, private sector dynamism, and increased consumer demand.
The Saudi government has actively encouraged the growth of this sector through measures like tax exemptions, financing initiatives, and technology transfer programs.
These policies have created a fertile ground for local entrepreneurs and attracted foreign companies eager to capitalize on Saudi Arabia’s business-friendly environment.
Consumer demand is a key driver, with rising interest in diverse products such as electronics, apparel, and food items.
The emergence of e-commerce platforms has further revolutionized the sector, enabling online retailers to reach broader audiences with ease, thereby increasing market participation.
According to data from 6Wresearch, such initiatives have heightened competition, lowered prices, and benefited both consumers and traders, adding to the sector’s momentum.
The sector’s importance is also evident in employment trends.
According to a report by DataSaudi, the wholesale and retail trade sector employed over 1.64 million people in the second quarter of 2024, making it one of the largest employers in the Kingdom, alongside construction and manufacturing.
This employment surge highlights the sector’s contribution to economic stability and growth.
However, challenges persist. Intense competition, pricing pressures, and the entry of international brands partnering with local retailers are sparking pricing wars that could erode profit margins for some players, according to 6Wresearch.
Despite these hurdles, ongoing government support and initiatives like Vision 2030 promise to create new investment opportunities, reinforcing the wholesale and retail trade sector as a cornerstone of Saudi Arabia’s economic future.
Almoosa Health’s IPO to drive expansion and innovation in Saudi healthcare: CEO
RIYADH: Almoosa Health Co.’s upcoming initial public offering is poised to drive significant growth and innovation in Saudi Arabia’s healthcare sector, said the company’s CEO.
In an interview with Arab News, Malek Almoosa emphasized that the IPO will attract capital for expansion and advanced technologies, enabling the company to strengthen its market position and broaden its services.
The CEO said Almoosa Health is well-positioned to capitalize on Saudi Arabia’s rapidly evolving health care sector, which is expected to grow at a 6.5 percent compound annual growth rate to reach SR360 billion ($95.83 billion) by 2030.
“The Kingdom’s health care infrastructure and utilization are still maturing and continue to lag global benchmarks, offering plenty of headroom for growth and investment in the sector,” he said.
The company plans to issue 13.3 million shares, including 9.3 million new offerings and 4 million existing shares. This will represent 30 percent of the company’s post-IPO capital.
“Our IPO plays an important role in attracting capital for investment in expansion and cutting-edge technology that will grow our footprint and our offering,” said Almoosa.
The public listing, a partly primary offering, is relatively rare in the Saudi market. It not only positions the company to reduce its leverage and enhance financial flexibility but also extend its regional reach.
“With a public listing, we also enhance our market positioning, attracting more business partnerships and broadening our patient demographic, and facilitating geographic expansion in the Eastern Province, where we are the leading health care provider,” he said.
Almoosa Health has already secured strong investor interest, with cornerstone commitments from Tawuniya and Al Fozan Holding Co., subscribing to 4.1 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, of the company’s post-offering capital.
Listing on Tadawul
The company said its decision to list on Tadawul aligns with its foundation and strategic direction. “We are, through and through, a Saudi organization that has grown with the Kingdom, and we wouldn’t have considered listing on any other financial market,” Almoosa said.
By becoming part of the region’s largest and most liquid stock exchange, the company aims to enhance its capital-raising capabilities, visibility, and credibility.
“Our decision to list on the Saudi Exchange reflects our strategic direction to harness local market insights, access a broad investor base, and continue to align with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 health care objectives,” said Almoosa.
Expanding capacity
The CEO stated that funds raised would primarily support Almoosa Health’s expansion strategy, adding: “We have a clear growth strategy, planning to add around 700 beds by 2028, resulting in four hospitals with 1,430 beds and five primary care centers.”
He explained that proceeds from 21 percent of the 30 percent offering would go to the company to finance expansion plans, covering capital expenditures, working capital, general corporate purposes, and partial debt repayment, while the remaining 9 percent would go to the selling shareholder.
The company plans to open two major hospitals: Almoosa Specialist Hospital in Al Hofuf by 2027, with 300 beds and 200 clinics, and another in Al Khobar by 2028, featuring up to 400 beds and several centers of excellence.
“We have already acquired the land and commenced excavation work for both,” Almoosa revealed.
In addition, five primary care centers are planned in Al Ahsa, Al Khobar, and Dammam between 2025 and 2027.
The CEO noted that this expansion aligns with the company’s vision of becoming a “trusted provider of world-class health care” in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.
“Our ambitious expansion plan is designed to make that vision a reality, growing our footprint, widening our offering, and investing in the best technology in the market.”
Eastern Province, where Almoosa operates, is emerging as a hub for energy and petrochemical industries, driving demand for health care services.
With a capacity of 730 beds and services spanning primary, acute, and rehabilitative care, Almoosa serves nearly 1 million patients annually. The company’s integrated care model includes pharmacy, home health care, and telemedicine.
Almoosa acknowledged challenges in the sector, including talent shortages. “In a region where world-class practitioners are hard to come by, we educate, develop, and retain the most talented professionals,” he said, emphasizing the company’s focus on patient experience and competitive advantage.
Technology adoption
Almoosa pointed out that technology is at the core of the company’s strategy to enhance patient care and operational efficiency.
Its specialist hospital in Al Ahsa integrates advanced health IT systems to enhance patient care and operational efficiency. He revealed that innovations such as Tesla 3 MRI for high-resolution imaging and automated systems in laboratories and pharmacies underscore its commitment to cutting-edge solutions.
“We’ve been recognized for our advanced use of health IT, with HIMSS Stage 7 Accreditation reflecting exceptionally high levels of technology adoption,” said Almoosa.
With its IPO, Almoosa Health aims to play a pivotal role in shaping the healthcare landscape of Eastern Province and beyond, meeting the growing demand for high-quality, integrated services.
Moody’s upgrades ratings for 11 Saudi banks
RIYADH: Eleven banks in Saudi Arabia have seen their long-term deposit and senior unsecured ratings upgraded by Moody’s thanks to a strong operating environment.
The ratings agency also attributed the decision – which affects institutions including Saudi National Bank, Al Rajhi Bank, Riyad Bank – to the higher capacity of the Kingdom’s government to support the banks in case of need.
Earlier in November, Moody’s changed the issuer rating of the Saudi government from Aa3 from A1 and its outlook to stable from positive.
Other banks to be affected by the latest change include Saudi Awwal Bank, Banque Saudi Fransi, and Alinma Bank, as well as Arab National Bank, Bank AlBilad, and the Saudi Investment Bank.
Bank AlJazira and Gulf International Bank — Saudi Arabia also saw changes.
The agency also changed the outlook to stable from positive on the long-term deposit ratings of all the banks except for Al Rajhi Bank, which already held that rating.
“Credit conditions for banks in Saudi Arabia are improving as economic diversification momentum remains robust,” said Moody’s in a press release, adding: “We expect non-hydrocarbon private sector GDP to continue expanding by about 4-5 percent in the coming years – among the highest in the Gulf Cooperation Council region and an indication of continued progress in diversification that will reduce the Kingdom’s exposure to oil market developments and long-term carbon transition over time.”
The agency also announced it had upgraded the Baseline Credit Assessments of Saudi National Bank, Saudi Awwal Bank, and Gulf International Bank — Saudi Arabia, and affirmed the BCAs of the remaining eight banks.
The continued increase in employment in the Kingdom, including the growing participation of women in the workforce, will support demand for banking services, according to Moody’s.
“In this context, we expect credit growth in the banking system to remain robust, particularly to high quality borrowers related to the execution of the giga-projects, which will in turn support asset quality and profitability for all banks across the system, albeit to varying degrees,” said the report.
When it came to the likelihood of government support, Moody’s changed its assessment to “very high” from “high” for Alinma Bank, Bank AlBilad, the Saudi Investment Bank and Bank AlJazira.
The report said this shift “reflects the vital role the banking system plays in supporting the diversification agenda.”
It added: “The government’s economic diversification plan continues to progress and will, over time, further reduce Saudi Arabia’s exposure to oil market developments. Additionally, the stability and resiliency of the banking system support investor confidence, private domestic or foreign investment which is critical to government’s diversification plan and in our view increases the likelihood for government support in case needed.”
In its analysis of Saudi National Bank – the largest such institution across the GCC region – Moody’s said its balance sheet is well diversified across retail, corporate and treasury and underpins its strong and improving asset quality with nonperforming loans to gross loans at 1.6 percent as of September.
“The bank’s liquid buffers remain healthy and sufficient to moderate concentration risk on government deposits which is a common feature for all banks in Saudi,” the report added.
Regarding the decision to affirm Al Rajhi Bank’s BCA at a3, Moody’s said this “reflects the bank’s dominant domestic Islamic retail franchise and our expectation that the improved operating conditions will support in maintaining the bank’s financial performance.”
Oil Updates – prices set to end week over 3% lower as supply risks ease
LONDON: Oil prices fell on Friday, heading for a weekly drop of more than 3 percent, as concerns over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict eased, alleviating earlier disruption fears.
Brent crude futures fell 55 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $72.73 a barrel by 10:58 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $69.52, down 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, compared with Wednesday’s closing price.
On a weekly basis, Brent futures were down 3.3 percent and the US WTI benchmark was trading 3.8 percent lower.
Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah traded accusations on Thursday over alleged violations of their ceasefire that came into effect the day before. The deal had at first appeared to alleviate the potential for supply disruption from a broader conflict that had led to a risk premium for oil.
Oil supplies from the Middle East, though, have been largely unaffected during Israel’s parallel conflicts with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, delayed its next policy meeting to Dec. 5 from Dec. 1 to avoid a scheduling conflict. OPEC+ is expected to further extend its production cuts at the meeting.
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, downgraded its Brent price forecast on Friday to $76/bbl in 2025 from $78/bbl previously, citing a “bearish fundamental outlook, ongoing weakness in oil market sentiment and the downside pressure on prices we expect to accrue under Trump.”
“Although we expect the OPEC+ group will opt to roll-over the existing cuts into the new year, this will not be sufficient to fully erase the production glut we forecast for next year,” BMI analysts said in a note.
Also on Thursday, Russia struck Ukrainian energy facilities for the second time this month. ANZ analysts said the attack risked retaliation that could affect Russian oil supply.
Iran told a UN nuclear watchdog it would install more than 6,000 additional uranium-enriching centrifuges at its enrichment plants, a confidential report by the watchdog said on Thursday.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs have said Iranian supply could drop by as much as 1 million barrels per day in the first half of next year if Western powers tighten sanctions enforcement on its crude oil output.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 11,641
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index gained 50.52 points, or 0.44 percent, closing at 11,641.31 on Thursday.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR6.02 billion ($1.60 billion), with 134 stocks advancing and 85 retreating.
Similarly, the Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu rose 229.98 points, or 0.76 percent, to close at 30,394.70. Of the listed stocks, 44 advanced while 38 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index increased by 8.37 points, or 0.58 percent, to close at 1,460.35.
The best-performing stock of the day was Tamkeen Human Resource Co., whose share price surged 18.00 percent to SR76.70.
Other top performers included Zamil Industrial Investment Co., whose share price rose 8.70 percent to SR29.35, and Dr. Soliman Abdel Kader Fakeeh Hospital Co., whose stock price increased 5.66 percent to SR63.50.
Saudi Cable Co. recorded the biggest drop, falling 6.93 percent to SR84.60.
Saudi Enaya Cooperative Insurance Co. also saw its share price fall 4.25 percent to SR13.08.
Meanwhile, Saudi Automotive Services Co. saw its stock price drop 4.23 percent to SR68.00.
On the announcements front, Saudi Telecom Co. revealed that it had received foreign investment authorization from the Spanish Council of Ministers, allowing it to increase its voting rights from 4.97 percent to 9.97 percent and gain the right to appoint a board member at Telefonica.
According to a Tadawul statement, the change in stc ownership from 9.9 percent in the previous announcement to 9.97 percent reflects Telefonica’s cancellation of shares in April. stc is currently completing the necessary steps to finalize the increase in its voting rights, which is expected to be completed in the coming period.
stc ended the session at SR39.95, with no change in its share price.
Nofoth Food Products Co. announced the acquisition of a mixed-use commercial and residential land in Riyadh’s Hittin neighborhood for SR22 million, covering 1,580.37 sq. meters. This acquisition is part of the company’s strategic plan to expand operations with new commercial offices and develop its headquarters.
According to a bourse filing, the deal will be financed through the company’s internal resources. The land acquisition will increase the firm’s fixed assets and positively impact financial ratios such as return on assets.
Nofoth Food Products Co. ended the session at SR18.00, down 1.69 percent.
