JEDDAH: The political deadlock has ended in Lebanon with the election of Michel Aoun as president — but experts on the country’s politics are still deeply divided on what it means for the region.
Two leading commentators, speaking to Arab News, were divided on whether the move marks a political compromise — or power grab.
For Eyad Abu Shakra, the veteran Lebanese political analyst and journalist, what happened on Monday was not even an election.
“These are not elections given the de facto domination of the country by one faction,” he said. “The Lebanese Parliament has been convened 45 times in the last 29 months. It never succeeded because of certain blocs which are the real de facto power on the ground and which prevented Parliament from having the quorum needed to elect a president. The country was in a political vacuum filled only by the dominance of Hezbollah which is much larger now than the Lebanese state.”
He pointed out that Aoun was the official candidate of Hezbollah.
“It was Hezbollah that stipulated that there would be no meeting of Parliament unless Aoun was elected president. In that sense, you cannot call these elections,” he said.
However, Rami G. Khouri, senior public policy fellow and professor of journalism at the American University of Beirut, described the coming together of different parties as the politics of compromise.
“Both Saad Hariri and Aoun realized that nothing was going to happen if they stuck to their positions,” he said. “Hariri was in greater difficulty than Aoun because Hariri basically was losing a lot of support and credibility in the country,” said Khouri.
“He also had a big shock recently when the municipal elections took place and quite a few Sunnis abandoned him and his group of March 14 and voted for other people who were challenging the traditional leaders.”
As part of the compromise, Khouri expects Hariri to become the prime minister.
“Everybody expects Aoun to name Hariri as prime minister ... that will balance the two sides to some extent and allow the political system to function more efficiently again,” he said. “We expect Hariri will now become prime minister for some years.”
Yet Abu Shakra is not optimistic about Hariri’s predicted premiership.
“Even if he becomes prime minister tomorrow, what would it mean? We will have a puppet president and a rubber-stamp prime minister. That is it. That will mean nothing,” he said.
His pessimism stems from his belief that Aoun will never turn against Iran-backed Hezbollah.
“Many optimistic people would say that now that Aoun has all the constitutional powers, he will be his own man; he will do whatever he pleases ... But, you know, Hezbollah is not stupid nor is Iran (their main backers). These are people who, for the last two and a half years, insisted on having Aoun appointed as a puppet president. They know what to expect. I am sure they are prepared for any eventuality should Aoun decide to do a volte-face, change his mind, and change his alliances as he usually does,” said Abu Shakra.
Khouri agrees with Abu Shakra’s assessment.
“No, I don’t think Aoun will go against Hezbollah,” said Khouri. “If he did, he would probably create a big crisis in the country. I am sure there was an understanding among Hezbollah, Aoun and Hariri about achieving this kind of agreement. I don’t think there is any expectation that Aoun will turn against Hezbollah. They have been allies for the last eight or 10 years and that will probably continue.”
The question that everyone has in mind is how the dynamics will work given that Hariri is a declared foe of the Syrian regime — he has in the past hinted at Syria’s role in the assassination of his father, Rafik Hariri, in 2005 — and Aoun, a politician who in the past built his reputation on his stance against the Syrian presence in Lebanon, becoming a partner of Syria’s ally, Hezbollah.
Khouri said one should look further than Syria.
“You have to look at Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The region as a whole is quite involved in internal Lebanese affairs and has been for some time. Iran and Saudi Arabia have been very active in Lebanon. The Saudis with Hariri and the Iranians with Hezbollah. But I think the regional powers are quite preoccupied with other things. The Saudis basically pulled out of Lebanon when they withdrew their $3 billion pledge. The Iranians are very busy in Syria,” said Khouri.
He said the relationship between Aoun and Syria would take a while to become clear.
“My suspicion is that Aoun will maintain cordial relations with Syria. He can’t afford to make an enemy of Syria and he hasn’t done that in recent years. He has reconciled with the Syrians. And the Syrians and the Iranians and Hezbollah make a very strong tripartite alliance and that basically is the alliance that allowed him to become president,” he said.
While Aoun is popular and has a huge following among Lebanese Christians and is backed by Hezbollah, many Lebanese have long accused him of being mad with power and irrational in his behavior to the extent that he would go to any length to become president. So is he the Donald Trump of Lebanon?
“Yes,” said Abu Shakra. “Minus the charisma.”
Khouri thinks otherwise.
“No, I wouldn’t go that far. Yes, Aoun has a long track record of activism in Lebanon, of doing political work and he was the head of the army. He is the most powerful Christian leader. He also has many critics. He is controversial and sometimes dramatic but I wouldn’t go so far as to equate him with Trump … Trump is a much more erratic kind of person,” he said.
What Aoun’s election means for Lebanon and the region
What Aoun’s election means for Lebanon and the region
US says supports gas deals with Kurdistan region after Iraq lawsuit
- “We encourage Baghdad and Irbil to work together to expand domestic gas production as soon as possible
WASHINGTON: The United States said Tuesday it supported American energy companies’ contracts with Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region after the Iraqi government filed a lawsuit against them.
Regional prime minister Masrour Barzani announced the signing of the two deals valued at tens of billions of dollars during a visit to Washington, in which he met Friday with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Rubio in his meeting “commended” the deals with US companies, State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters.
“We encourage Baghdad and Irbil to work together to expand domestic gas production as soon as possible. These types of economic partnerships will benefit both the American and Iraqi peoples and help Iraq move toward energy independence,” she said.
“We also believe that US and Iraqi interests are best served by having a strong, resilient Iraqi Kurdistan region within a sovereign and prosperous federal Iraq
“As far as the nature of the lawsuits, obviously we are looking forward to continuing these kinds of deals. We expect these kinds of deals to flourish, and expect and would hope that they would be facilitated,” she said.
Israeli troops fire warning shots as Palestinians overwhelm new Gaza food center
- The UN and other humanitarian organizations have rejected the new system, saying it won’t be able to meet the needs of Gaza’s 2.3 million people
MUWASI, Gaza Strip: Chaos erupted on the second day of aid operations by a new US-backed group in Gaza as desperate Palestinians overwhelmed a center distributing food on Tuesday, breaking through fences. Nearby Israeli troops fired warning shots, sending people fleeing in panic.
An AP journalist heard Israeli tank and gunfire and saw a military helicopter firing flares. The Israeli military said its troops fired the warning shots in the area outside the center and that “control over the situation was established.”
At least three injured Palestinians were seen by The Associated Press being brought from the scene, one of them bleeding from his leg.
The distribution hub outside Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah had been opened the day before by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which has been slated by Israel to take over aid operations. The UN and other humanitarian organizations have rejected the new system, saying it won’t be able to meet the needs of Gaza’s 2.3 million people and allows Israel to use food as a weapon to control the population. They have also warned of the risk of friction between Israeli troops and people seeking supplies.
Palestinians have become desperate for food after nearly three months of Israeli blockade pushed Gaza to the brink of famine.
Palestinians walk miles for food, finding chaos
Palestinians at the scene told AP that small numbers of people made their way to the GHF center Tuesday morning and received food boxes. As word spread, large numbers of men, women and children walked for several miles from the sprawling tent camps along Gaza’s Mediterranean coast. To reach the hub, they had to pass through nearby Israeli military positions.
By the afternoon, hundreds of thousands were massed at the hub. Videos show the crowds funneled in long lines through chain-link fence passages. Two people said each person was searched and had their faces scanned for identification before being allowed to receive the boxes. Crowds swelled and turmoil erupted, with people tearing down fences and grabbing boxes. The staff at the site were forced to flee, they said.
The AP journalist positioned some distance away heard gunfire and rounds of tank fire. Smoke could be seen rising from where one round impacted. He saw a military helicopter overhead firing flares.
“There was no order, the people rushed to take, there was shooting, and we fled,” said Hosni Abu Amra, who had been waiting to receive aid. “We fled without taking anything that would help us get through this hunger.”
“It was chaos,” said Ahmed Abu Taha, who said he heard gunfire and saw Israeli military aircraft overhead. “People were panicked.”
Crowds were seen running from the site. A few managed to secure aid boxes — containing basic items like sugar, flour, pasta and tahini — but the vast majority left empty-handed.
US-backed group says they ‘fell back’ to ensure safety
In a statement, GHF said that because of the large number of Palestinians seeking aid, staff at the hub followed the group’s safety protocols and “fell back” to allow them to dissipate, then later resumed operations.
A spokesperson for the group told the AP that no shots were fired from GHF. Speaking on condition of anonymity in line with the group’s rules, the spokesperson said the protocols aim at “avoiding loss of life, which is exactly what happened.”
GHF uses armed private contractors to guard the hubs and the transportation of supplies. The hub is also close to Israeli military positions in the Morag Corridor, a band of territory across the breadth of Gaza that divides Rafah from the rest of the territory.
GHF has set up four hubs around Gaza to distribute food, two of which began operating on Monday — both of them in the Rafah area.
The UN and other humanitarian groups have refused to participate in GHF’s system, saying it violates humanitarian principles. They say it can be used by Israel to forcibly displace the population by requiring them to move near the few distribution hubs or else face starvation – a violation of international law. They have also opposed the use of facial recognition to vet recipients.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday commented on the turmoil at the Rafah center, saying, “There was some loss of control momentarily … happily we brought it under control.”
He repeated that Israel plans to move Gaza’s entire population to a “sterile zone” at the southern end of the territory while troops fight Hamas elsewhere.
UN says it has been struggling to transport aid
Israel has said the new system is necessary because it claims Hamas has been siphoning off supplies that reach Gaza. The UN has denied that any significant diversion takes place.
Throughout the war, the UN and other aid groups have conducted a massive operation distributing food, medicine and other supplies to wherever Palestinians are located. Israel says GHF will replace that network, but the past week has allowed a trickle of aid to enter Gaza for the UN to distribute.
COGAT, the Israeli military agency in charge of coordinating aid, said on Tuesday that 400 trucks of supplies, mainly food, was waiting on the Gaza side of the main crossing from Israel, but that the UN had not collected them. It said Israel has extended the times for collection and expanded the routes that the UN can use inside Gaza.
Jens Laerke, spokesperson for the UN humanitarian office OCHA, told reporters in Geneva that agencies have struggled to pick up the supplies “because of the insecure routes that are being assigned to us by the Israeli authorities to use.” He said the amount of aid allowed the past week was “vastly insufficient.”
Israeli strike on south Lebanon kills one: ministry
- The ministry said an “Israeli enemy strike” on a motorcycle killed one man in Yater
- The Israeli military did not immediately comment on the attack
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s health ministry said an Israeli strike on south Lebanon killed one man on Tuesday, the latest attack despite a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah.
In a statement, the ministry said an “Israeli enemy strike” on a motorcycle killed one man in Yater, in south Lebanon’s Bint Jbeil district.
The Israeli military did not immediately comment on the attack, which came after it said it killed a Hezbollah member in south Lebanon’s Majdal Zoun on Monday.
Israel has continued to launch strikes on its northern neighbor despite the November truce that sought to halt more than a year of hostilities with Hezbollah, including two months of full-blown war.
Under the terms of the ceasefire deal, only UN peacekeepers and the Lebanese army should be deployed in southern Lebanon, though Israel has kept its forces in five areas it has declared strategic.
Lebanon has called on the international community to pressure Israel to end its attacks and withdraw all its troops.
UN says it has no information over Gaza aid group deliveries
GENEVA: The United Nations said on Tuesday it had no information on whether the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a US-backed aid group, had actually delivered any supplies inside the war-ravaged Palestinian territory.
The little-known group, which has stirred controversy since surfacing in early May, announced on Monday it had begun distributing truckloads of food in the Gaza Strip.
But officials from the UN humanitarian agency OCHA, and UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, said they were unaware whether any aid had actually been distributed.
The UN and international aid agencies have said they will not cooperate with the GHF, amid accusations it is working with Israel without any Palestinian involvement.
“It is a distraction from what is actually needed, which is a reopening of all the crossings in to Gaza; a secure environment within Gaza; and faster facilitation of permissions and final approvals of all the emergency supplies that we have just outside the border that need to get in,” OCHA spokesman Jens Laerke told a press briefing in Geneva.
UNRWA spokeswoman Juliette Touma told journalists aid to Gaza was still “very, very far” from what was needed: a minimum of 500 to 600 trucks per day loaded with food, medical aid, fuel, water and other basic supplies, she said, speaking via video-link from Amman.
Israel, which recently stepped up its offensive against militant group Hamas, drew international condemnation after implementing a blockade on March 2 that has sparked severe food and medical shortages.
Humanitarian aid has begun trickling back into Gaza in recent days after Israel lifted the 11-week blockade.
Touma said no UNRWA supplies had gone in since March 2, while Laerke said he had no information on how many UN trucks had passed through the Kerem Shalom crossing in the last 24 hours, partly because Israel does not allow them to have a fixed presence there.
Israeli forces raid foreign exchange stores across West Bank
- One killed, eight other people were injured by Israeli forces during a raid in Nablus
RAMALLAH: Israeli forces raided foreign exchange stores in several West Bank cities including Ramallah and Nablus on Tuesday, accusing their parent company of “connections with terrorist organizations,” according to an army closure notice.
“Israeli forces are taking action against Al-Khaleej Exchange Company due to its connections with terrorist organizations,” a leaflet left at the company’s Ramallah location read.
An AFP journalist present at the scene reported several army vehicles at the store’s entrance while soldiers came out carrying items covered by a cloth.
Two army vehicles escorted one of the store’s employees away from the premises.
In the northern West Bank city of Nablus, Israeli forces raided a second foreign exchange store belonging to the Al-Khaleej company, as well as a gold store, according to another AFP journalist.
Some Palestinian residents of Nablus were seen clashing with the army during the raid, throwing objects at troops.
The Ramallah-based Ministry of Health said one man was killed and eight other people were injured by Israeli forces’ live ammunition during a raid in Nablus on Tuesday.
The Palestinian Red Crescent said it treated 20 people for tear gas inhalation and three others who were injured by rubber bullets.
The Palestinian movement Hamas condemned the raids on foreign exchange shops.
“These assaults on economic institutions, accompanied by the looting of large sums of money and the confiscation of property, are an extension of the piracy policies adopted by the (Israeli) government,” the group said in a statement, adding that the targeted companies were “operating within the law.”
