JEDDAH: The political deadlock has ended in Lebanon with the election of Michel Aoun as president — but experts on the country’s politics are still deeply divided on what it means for the region.
Two leading commentators, speaking to Arab News, were divided on whether the move marks a political compromise — or power grab.
For Eyad Abu Shakra, the veteran Lebanese political analyst and journalist, what happened on Monday was not even an election.
“These are not elections given the de facto domination of the country by one faction,” he said. “The Lebanese Parliament has been convened 45 times in the last 29 months. It never succeeded because of certain blocs which are the real de facto power on the ground and which prevented Parliament from having the quorum needed to elect a president. The country was in a political vacuum filled only by the dominance of Hezbollah which is much larger now than the Lebanese state.”
He pointed out that Aoun was the official candidate of Hezbollah.
“It was Hezbollah that stipulated that there would be no meeting of Parliament unless Aoun was elected president. In that sense, you cannot call these elections,” he said.
However, Rami G. Khouri, senior public policy fellow and professor of journalism at the American University of Beirut, described the coming together of different parties as the politics of compromise.
“Both Saad Hariri and Aoun realized that nothing was going to happen if they stuck to their positions,” he said. “Hariri was in greater difficulty than Aoun because Hariri basically was losing a lot of support and credibility in the country,” said Khouri.
“He also had a big shock recently when the municipal elections took place and quite a few Sunnis abandoned him and his group of March 14 and voted for other people who were challenging the traditional leaders.”
As part of the compromise, Khouri expects Hariri to become the prime minister.
“Everybody expects Aoun to name Hariri as prime minister ... that will balance the two sides to some extent and allow the political system to function more efficiently again,” he said. “We expect Hariri will now become prime minister for some years.”
Yet Abu Shakra is not optimistic about Hariri’s predicted premiership.
“Even if he becomes prime minister tomorrow, what would it mean? We will have a puppet president and a rubber-stamp prime minister. That is it. That will mean nothing,” he said.
His pessimism stems from his belief that Aoun will never turn against Iran-backed Hezbollah.
“Many optimistic people would say that now that Aoun has all the constitutional powers, he will be his own man; he will do whatever he pleases ... But, you know, Hezbollah is not stupid nor is Iran (their main backers). These are people who, for the last two and a half years, insisted on having Aoun appointed as a puppet president. They know what to expect. I am sure they are prepared for any eventuality should Aoun decide to do a volte-face, change his mind, and change his alliances as he usually does,” said Abu Shakra.
Khouri agrees with Abu Shakra’s assessment.
“No, I don’t think Aoun will go against Hezbollah,” said Khouri. “If he did, he would probably create a big crisis in the country. I am sure there was an understanding among Hezbollah, Aoun and Hariri about achieving this kind of agreement. I don’t think there is any expectation that Aoun will turn against Hezbollah. They have been allies for the last eight or 10 years and that will probably continue.”
The question that everyone has in mind is how the dynamics will work given that Hariri is a declared foe of the Syrian regime — he has in the past hinted at Syria’s role in the assassination of his father, Rafik Hariri, in 2005 — and Aoun, a politician who in the past built his reputation on his stance against the Syrian presence in Lebanon, becoming a partner of Syria’s ally, Hezbollah.
Khouri said one should look further than Syria.
“You have to look at Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The region as a whole is quite involved in internal Lebanese affairs and has been for some time. Iran and Saudi Arabia have been very active in Lebanon. The Saudis with Hariri and the Iranians with Hezbollah. But I think the regional powers are quite preoccupied with other things. The Saudis basically pulled out of Lebanon when they withdrew their $3 billion pledge. The Iranians are very busy in Syria,” said Khouri.
He said the relationship between Aoun and Syria would take a while to become clear.
“My suspicion is that Aoun will maintain cordial relations with Syria. He can’t afford to make an enemy of Syria and he hasn’t done that in recent years. He has reconciled with the Syrians. And the Syrians and the Iranians and Hezbollah make a very strong tripartite alliance and that basically is the alliance that allowed him to become president,” he said.
While Aoun is popular and has a huge following among Lebanese Christians and is backed by Hezbollah, many Lebanese have long accused him of being mad with power and irrational in his behavior to the extent that he would go to any length to become president. So is he the Donald Trump of Lebanon?
“Yes,” said Abu Shakra. “Minus the charisma.”
Khouri thinks otherwise.
“No, I wouldn’t go that far. Yes, Aoun has a long track record of activism in Lebanon, of doing political work and he was the head of the army. He is the most powerful Christian leader. He also has many critics. He is controversial and sometimes dramatic but I wouldn’t go so far as to equate him with Trump … Trump is a much more erratic kind of person,” he said.
What Aoun’s election means for Lebanon and the region
What Aoun’s election means for Lebanon and the region
Palestinian ambassador: UK should recognize statehood to help end ‘deadly status quo’
- Husam Zomlot urges Britain to ‘right historic wrongs,’ show ‘political courage’
- UN conference on 2-state solution could see states, including France, Canada, recognize Palestine
LONDON: The Palestinian ambassador to the UK has called on the Labour government to fulfill its manifesto pledge and recognize his nation as an independent sovereign state.
Husam Zomlot wrote in The Guardian that the move was “long overdue” ahead of a UN conference on the two-state solution next week in New York, and that it would help end the “deadly status quo” with Israel.
“I call on the British government to end this vicious path, right its historic wrongs and officially recognize the state of Palestine while the conditions are uniquely ripe to do so,” Zomlot wrote.
“Recognition is neither a reward for one party nor a punishment for another. It is a long-overdue affirmation of the Palestinian people’s unconditional right to exist and live freely in our homeland,” he added.
“Peace is not made between occupier and occupied. It can only exist between equals.”
Ahead of the UN conference on June 17, set to be co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, several states yet to recognize Palestine have begun discussions about doing so, including the UK and Canada.
Middle East Minister Hamish Falconer came under pressure in the House of Commons on Tuesday for the government to recognize Palestine unconditionally.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy recently told Parliament the UK had held direct talks with France about Palestinian statehood, but added the UK wanted the move to amount to more than just a symbolic gesture.
But Zomlot wrote: “Recognition (should not) be subject to ever more conditions on the Palestinian side. Delaying recognition simply reinforces the deadly status quo, denying Palestinians’ equal rights until Israel consents, thus granting our occupier a permanent veto over the future.”
Ahead of the conference, the French government, which is also believed to be among those set to recognize Palestine, published a letter laying out political commitments made by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, including that a future Palestinian state would require Hamas “laying down its weapons” and “no longer ruling Gaza.”
The commitments included holding democratic presidential elections within a year, and Hamas accepting nonviolence, disarmament, and the two-state solution. Abbas also condemned the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel by the militant group, and demanded the release of all remaining hostages in Gaza.
Hugh Lovatt, from the European Council on Foreign Relations, told The Guardian: “Recognition would certainly allow London and Paris to press the PA towards political renewal, including the holding of long-overdue elections, but it does not provide them with much leverage over Hamas which does not consider recognition by itself as being of sufficient value of itself to disarm before a peace agreement with Israel is reached.”
A senior diplomat from a Gulf state told The Guardian that Hamas had agreed to the proposal to end its rule in Gaza, but not to disarming.
Another Gulf diplomat told the paper: “Israel is seeking the total annihilation of Hamas and will not be willing to hand security in Gaza to the PA or a multinational force.”
The US government sent a diplomatic cable on Tuesday urging countries not to attend the conference, calling it “counterproductive to ongoing, lifesaving efforts to end the war in Gaza and free hostages.”
But Zomlot wrote: “This is a moment of historic consequence. It demands moral clarity and political courage. I urge the UK to rise to the moment and act now.”
Arab world, Middle East condemn Israel’s attacks against Iran
DUBAI: The Arab world has responded to Israel’s strikes against Iran, each country offering its condemnation of the attacks that killed at least two top military officers, raising the potential for an all-out war between the two bitter Middle East adversaries.
The UAE, through its foreign affairs ministry, stressed the importance of “exercising the utmost self-restraint and judgment to mitigate risks and prevent the expansion of the conflict.”
“Enhancing dialogue, adhering to international law, and respecting the sovereignty of states constitute essential principles for resolving the current crises,” the foreign affairs ministry added.
The UAE emphasized the need to resolve disputes through diplomatic means rather than confrontation and escalation, and called on the United Nations Security Council to take urgent and necessary measures to achieve a ceasefire, and to reinforce international peace and security.
Oman offered its “strong condemnation of the brutal military aggression launched by Israel on the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which targeted sovereign facilities and caused casualties.”
“Oman considers this action a dangerous and reckless escalation that constitutes a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter and the principles of international law. It also represents unacceptable and ongoing aggressive behavior that undermines the foundations of stability in the region,” the country’s foreign affairs ministry said.
And Jordan’s foreign ministry spokesperson Sufian Qudah warned of the “consequences of such escalatory actions, saying they threatened regional security and stability and risk exacerbating tensions”, state news agency Petra reported.
Elsewhere Qatar said it “considers the assault a blatant violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security, as well as a clear breach of international law and its established principles,” state news agency QNA meanwhile reported.
“The State of Qatar voices its grave concern over this dangerous escalation, which forms part of a recurring pattern of aggressive policies that threaten regional peace and stability and hinder efforts aimed at de-escalation and diplomatic resolution.”
Qatar emphasized “the urgent need for the international community to assume its legal and moral responsibilities and to act swiftly to halt these Israeli violations.”
“The State of Qatar reaffirms its firm position in rejecting all forms of violence, and reiterates its call for restraint and the avoidance of escalation that could widen the scope of conflict and undermine regional security and stability,” QNA reported.
Turkiye also condemned “in the strongest terms” Israel’s air strike on Iran, calling it a provocation that violates international law and risks further escalation in the region.
The Turkish foreign ministry in a statement said the attack showed Israel “does not want issues to be resolved through diplomatic means” and urged it to halt “aggressive actions that could lead to greater conflicts.”
Jassim Mohammed Al-Budaiwi, Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), also described the Israeli attacks as a ‘clear violation of international law and the United Nations Charter.’
Al-Budaiwi, in a statement, called on the ‘international community and the Security Council to assume their responsibilities towards immediately halting this aggression and avoiding escalation that could ignite a wider conflict, which would have dire consequences for regional and international peace.’
In its condemnation of the attacks, Bahrain’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned of its “grave repercussions on regional security and stability”.
And it called for “de-escalation, restraint, and a reduction in tensions”.
The Ministry reiterated Bahrain’s call for an immediate halt to military escalation to spare the region and its people from the consequences on regional stability, security, and international peace.
And it affirmed Bahrain’s stance advocating for the resolution of the crises through dialogue and diplomatic means, as well as the necessity of continuing US-Iranian negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear file.
Trump urges Iran to ‘make a deal, before there is nothing left’
- Trump earlier told Fox News he was aware Israel was going to conduct strikes on Iran before it happened
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio said earlier Thursday that the United States was “not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region”
WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump urged Iran on Friday to “make a deal,” warning that there will be more “death and destruction” after Israel launched deadly strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities.
His comments on his Truth Social platform came after Israel pounded Iran in a series of air raids on Friday, striking 100 targets.
The operation killed senior figures – among them the armed forces chief and top nuclear scientists – and Iran has called Israel’s wave of strikes a “declaration of war.”
On Friday morning, Trump said: “I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal.”
He added that Israel – which Trump has aligned Washington to since his return to the White House – has a lot of weapons thanks to the United States and “they know how to use it.”
“There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.
“Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left... JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” he said.
Trump earlier told Fox News he had been made aware of the Israeli strikes before they happened, and stressed that Tehran “cannot have a nuclear bomb,” the US broadcaster said.
He also said that “we are hoping to get back to the negotiating table,” according to Fox News.
During Trump’s first term, he pulled the United States out of a landmark agreement to relieve sanctions on Iran in return for curbs on its nuclear program.
Fox News also reported that Trump’s administration reached out to at least one key Middle Eastern ally to acknowledge that the strike was going to happen, but said the United States was not involved.
“Trump noted the US is ready to defend itself and Israel if Iran retaliates,” Fox News said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said earlier Thursday that the United States was “not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region.”
“Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel.”
Trump will be attending a National Security Council meeting Friday morning.
UN nuclear watchdog chief ready to travel to Iran to assess situation
VIENNA: UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Friday he was ready to travel to Iran to assess the situation there after Israel carried out widespread military strikes that hit the sprawling nuclear complex at Natanz.
In a statement to a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors, Grossi said the other main enrichment center in Iran, Fordow, was not hit and neither was another nuclear facility in Esfahan, citing Iranian authorities.
There are no elevated radiation levels at Natanz, he added.
“I call on all parties to exercise maximum restraint to avoid further escalation. I reiterate that any military action that jeopardizes the safety and security of nuclear facilities risks grave consequences for the people of Iran, the region, and beyond,” Grossi said in his statement.
“I have indicated to the respective authorities my readiness to travel at the earliest to assess the situation and ensure safety, security and non-proliferation in Iran.”
He did not say what the extent of the damage at Natanz was or what parts of the site were hit. The site includes a vast underground uranium enrichment plant and a smaller, above-ground pilot enrichment plant.
Iran is enriching to up to 60 percent purity, close to the roughly 90 percent of weapons grade, at the pilot plant, but it is producing smaller quantities of that material there than at Fordow, a site dug into a mountain that military experts have said would be difficult for Israel to destroy through bombardment.
“Despite the current military actions and heightened tensions, it is clear that the only sustainable path forward – for Iran, for Israel, the entire region, and the international community – is one grounded in dialogue and diplomacy to ensure peace, stability, and cooperation,” Grossi said.
Jordan closes airspace, says it won’t be battleground for any conflict
DUBAI: Jordan has not and will not allow any violation of its airspace, nor will it be a battleground for any conflict, a senior minister said in a statement on Friday.
“Jordan’s national security is a red line, and the Kingdom will not allow any attempt to threaten its security and the safety of its citizens,” Mohammad Momani, Minister of Government Communication and Government Spokesperson added.
Royal Jordanian Air Force aircraft and air defense systems intercepted a number of missiles and drones that entered Jordanian airspace Friday morning, a report from state news agency Petra stated.
The interception operation came in response to military assessments that missiles and drones were bound to fall into Jordanian territory, including populated areas, which could cause casualties, Petra added.
Momani also urged the international community to exercise pressure in order to restore calm and prevent further escalation in the region.
Jordan’s aviation authority closed the country’s airspace and grounded all flights after Israel attacked Iran.
“The Kingdom’s airspace is temporarily closed, and air traffic suspended for all aircraft – incoming, outgoing and in transit, as a precaution against any risks resulting from the regional escalation,” the authority said in a statement.
The country’s armed forces were also placed on high alert in response to growing regional tensions, a military source said.
The General Command was closely monitoring developments in the region and that the armed forces were at the highest levels of operational and logistical readiness to respond any potential emergencies, the Petra report noted.
