DUBAI: Iranian lawmakers approved plans on Monday to expand military spending to five percent of the budget, including developing the country’s long-range missile program which US President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to halt.
The vote is a boost to Iran’s military establishment — the regular army, the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and defense ministry — which was allocated almost 2 percent of the 2015-16 budget.
But it could put the Islamic Republic on a collision course with the incoming Trump administration, and fuel criticism from other Western states which say Tehran’s recent ballistic missile tests are inconsistent with a UN resolution on Iran.
The resolution, adopted last year as part of the deal to curb Iran’s nuclear activities, calls on Iran to refrain from work on ballistic missiles designed to deliver nuclear weapons. Tehran says it has not carried out any work on missiles specifically designed to carry such payloads.
Tasnim news agency said 173 lawmakers voted in favor of an article in Iran’s five-year development plan that “requires government to increase Iran’s defense capabilities as a regional power and preserve the country’s national security and interests by allocating at least five percent of annual budget” to military affairs.
Only 10 lawmakers voted against the plan, which includes developing long range missiles, armed drones and cyber-war capabilities.
The Obama administration says Iran’s ballistic missile tests have not violated the nuclear agreement with Tehran, but Trump, who criticized the accord as “the worst deal ever negotiated,” has said he would stop Iran’s missile program.
“Those ballistic missiles, with a range of 1,250 miles, were designed to intimidate not only Israel ... but also intended to frighten Europe and someday maybe hit even the United States,” he told the American Israel Public Affairs Committee AIPAC in March. “We’re not going to let that happen.”
TESTS “INCONSISTENT” WITH DEAL
The increase in military spending is part of a growth plan for 2016-2021 first announced in July 2015 by the Khamenei.
Khamenei supported last year’s nuclear deal with world powers that curbed Iran’s nuclear program in return for lifting of international sanctions. However, he has since called for Iran to avoid further rapprochement with the West, and maintain its military strength.
Iran has test-fired several ballistic missiles since the nuclear deal and the US Treasury has imposed new sanctions on entities and individuals linked to the program.
Former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said last year that the missile launches were “not consistent with the constructive spirit” of the nuclear deal, but did not say whether they actually violated the UN resolution.
The United States, Britain, France and Germany wrote to Ban in March about the missile tests, which they said were “inconsistent with” and “in defiance of” the council resolution.
Most UN sanctions on Iran were lifted after the deal but Iran is still subject to a five-year UN arms embargo — unless approved in advance by the UN Security Council.
Although the embargo is not technically part of the nuclear agreement, the UN resolution enshrining the deal requires the UN Secretary-General to highlight any violations.
In a report submitted to the Security Council before he was succeeded by Antonio Guterres on Jan. 1, Ban expressed concern that Iran may have violated the embargo by supplying weapons and missiles to Hezbollah.
Iran to expand military spending, develop missiles
Iran to expand military spending, develop missiles
Syria de facto leader Al-Sharaa phones congratulations to newly elected Lebanon president Aoun
CAIRO: Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa called newly elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on the phone and congratulated him for assuming the presidency, Syria’s ruling general command reported on Sunday.
Eight killed, 50 injured in explosion of gas station, gas storage tank in Yemen’s Al-Bayda, sources say
CAIRO: Eight people were killed and 50 others injured in an explosion of a gas station and a gas storage tank in Yemen’s Al-Bayda province, a medical source and a local official said.
Russia eyes Libya to replace Syria as Africa launchpad
- On December 18 the Wall Street Journal, citing Libyan and American officials, said there had been a transfer of Russian radars and defense systems from Syria to Libya, including S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft batteries
PARIS: The fall of Russian ally Bashar Assad in Syria has disrupted the Kremlin’s strategy not only for the Mediterranean but also for Africa, pushing it to focus on Libya as a potential foothold, experts say.
Russia runs a military port and an air base on the Syrian coast, designed to facilitate its operations in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa, especially the Sahel, Sudan, and the Central African Republic.
However, this model is in jeopardy with the abrupt departure of the Syrian ruler.
Although Syria’s new leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, has called Russia an “important country,” saying “we do not want Russia to leave Syria in the way that some wish,” the reshuffling of cards in Syria is pushing Russia to seek a strategic retreat toward Libya.
In Libya, Russian mercenaries already support Khalifa Haftar, a field marshal controlling the east of the country, against the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) which has UN recognition and is supported by Turkiye.
“The goal is notably to preserve the ongoing Russian missions in Africa,” said Jalel Harchaoui at the RUSI think tank in the UK.
“It’s a self-preservation reflex” for Russia which is anxious “to mitigate the deterioration of its position in Syria,” he told AFP.
In May 2024, Swiss investigative consortium “All Eyes On Wagner” identified Russian activities at around 10 Libyan sites, including the port of Tobruk, where military equipment was delivered in February and April of last year.
There were around 800 Russian troops present in February 2024, and 1,800 in May.
On December 18 the Wall Street Journal, citing Libyan and American officials, said there had been a transfer of Russian radars and defense systems from Syria to Libya, including S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft batteries.
Since Assad’s fall on December 8, “a notable volume of Russian military resources has been shipped to Libya from Belarus and Russia,” said Harchaoui, adding there had been troop transfers as well.
Ukrainian intelligence claimed on January 3 that Moscow planned “to use Sparta and Sparta II cargo ships to transport military equipment and weapons” to Libya.
Beyond simply representing a necessary replacement of “one proxy with another,” the shift is a quest for “continuity,” said expert Emadeddin Badi on the Atlantic Council’s website, underscoring Libya’s role as “a component of a long-standing strategy to expand Moscow’s strategic foothold in the region.”
According to Badi, “Assad offered Moscow a foothold against NATO’s eastern flank and a stage to test military capabilities.”
Haftar, he said, presents a similar opportunity, “a means to disrupt western interests, exploit Libya’s fractured politics, and extend Moscow’s influence into Africa.”
The Tripoli government and Italy, Libya’s former colonial master, have expressed concern over Russian movements, closely observed by the European Union and NATO.
Several sources say the United States has tried to persuade Haftar to deny the Russians a permanent installation at the port of Tobruk that they have coveted since 2023.
It seems already clear the Kremlin will struggle to find the same level of ease in Libya that it had during Assad’s reign.
“Syria was convenient,” said Ulf Laessing, the Bamako-based head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
“It was this black box with no Western diplomats, no journalists. They could basically do what they wanted,” he told AFP.
“But in Libya, it will be much more complicated. It’s difficult to keep things secret there and Russian presence will be much more visible,” he said.
Moscow will also have to contend with other powers, including Turkiye, which is allied with the GNU, as well as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, who are patrons of Haftar.
In Libya, torn into two blocs since the ouster of longtime leader Muammar Qaddafi in February 2011, “everybody’s trying to work with both sides,” said Laessing.
Over the past year, even Turkiye has moved closer to Haftar, seeking potential cooperation on economic projects and diplomatic exchanges.
Russia will also be mindful to have a plan B should things go wrong for its Libyan ally.
“We must not repeat the mistake made in Syria, betting on a local dictator without an alternative,” said Vlad Shlepchenko, military correspondent for the pro-Kremlin media Tsargrad.
Haftar, meanwhile, is unlikely to want to turn his back on western countries whose tacit support he has enjoyed.
“There are probably limits to what the Russians can do in Libya,” said Laessing.
Turkiye’s Kurdish leaders meet jailed politician as the two sides inch toward peace
- The armed conflict between the PKK and the Turkish state, which started in August 1984 and has claimed tens of thousands of lives, has seen several failed attempts at peace
ISTANBUL: A delegation from one of Turkiye’s biggest pro-Kurdish political parties met a leading figure of the Kurdish movement in prison Saturday, the latest step in a tentative process to end the country’s 40-year conflict, the party said.
Three senior figures from the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party, or DEM, met the party’s former co-chairperson, Selahattin Demirtas, at Edirne prison near the Greek border.
The meeting with Demirtas — jailed in 2016 on terrorism charges that most observers, including the European Court of Human Rights, have labelled politically motivated — took place two weeks after DEM members met Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned head of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.
While the PKK has led an armed insurgency against the Turkish state since the 1980s, the DEM is the latest party representing left-leaning Kurdish nationalism. Both DEM and its predecessors have faced state measures largely condemned as repression, including the jailing of elected officials and the banned of parties.
In a statement released on social media after the meeting, Demirtas called on all sides to “focus on a common future where everyone, all of us, will win.”
Demirtas credited Ocalan with raising the chance that the PKK could lay down its arms. Ocalan has been jailed on Imrali island in the Sea of Marmara since 1999 for treason over his leadership of the PKK, considered a terrorist organization by Turkiye and most Western states.
Demirtas led the DEM between 2014 and 2018, when it was known as the Peoples’ Democratic Party, or HDP, and he is still widely admired. He said that despite “good intentions,” it was necessary for “concrete steps that inspire confidence … to be taken quickly.”
One of the DEM delegation, Ahmet Turk, said: “I believe that Turks need Kurds and Kurds need Turks. Our wish is for Turkiye to come to a point where it can build democracy in the Middle East.”
The armed conflict between the PKK and the Turkish state, which started in August 1984 and has claimed tens of thousands of lives, has seen several failed attempts at peace.
Despite being imprisoned for a quarter of a century, Ocalan remains central to any chance of success due to his ongoing popularity among many of Turkiye’s Kurds. In a statement released on Dec. 29, he signaled his willingness to “contribute positively” to renewed efforts.
Meanwhile, in an address Saturday to ruling party supporters in Diyarbakir, the largest city in the Kurdish-majority southeast, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for the disbandment of the PKK and the surrender of its weapons.
This would allow DEM “the opportunity to develop itself, strengthening our internal front against the increasing conflicts in our region, in short, closing the half-century-old separatist terror bracket and consigning it to history ... forever,” he said in televised comments.
The latest drive for peace came when Devlet Bahceli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party and a close ally of Erdogan, surprised everyone in October when he suggested that Ocalan could be granted parole if he renounced violence and disbanded the PKK.
Erdogan offered tacit support for Bahceli’s suggestion a week later, and Ocalan said he was ready to work for peace, in a message conveyed by his nephew.
Four Daesh members, including two leaders, killed in eastern Iraq
- The caliphate collapsed in 2017 in Iraq, where it once had a base just a 30-minute drive from Baghdad, and in Syria in 2019, after a sustained military campaign by a US-led coalition
BAGHDAD: Four members of the Daesh, including two senior leaders, were killed in an airstrike carried out by Iraqi aircraft in the Hamrin Mountains in eastern Iraq, security officials said on Saturday.
The Iraqi Security Media Cell, an official body responsible for disseminating security information, said in a statement four bodies of Daesh militants were found in the area where Iraqi F-16 fighter jets carried out the strike on Friday.
Talib Al-Mousawi, an official at Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) — a grouping of armed factions originally set up to fight Daesh in 2014 that was subsequently recognized as an official security force, told Reuters the dead included two top Daesh leaders in the Diyala province in eastern Iraq.
The identity of another militant will be determined following an examination, the Security Media Cell said.
At the height of its power from 2014-2017, the Daesh “caliphate” imposed death and torture on communities in vast swathes of Iraq and Syria and had influence across the Middle East.
The caliphate collapsed in 2017 in Iraq, where it once had a base just a 30-minute drive from Baghdad, and in Syria in 2019, after a sustained military campaign by a US-led coalition.
Daesh responded by scattering in autonomous cells; its leadership is clandestine and its overall size is hard to quantify. The UN estimates it at 10,000 in its heartlands.
