WASHINGTON: If US President Donald Trump’s hard-line stance on illegal immigration leads to large-scale deportations, among those hurt could be the US economy.
That is the view of many economists, who say the US cannot afford to suddenly lose vast numbers of the immigrants who work illegally picking fruit and vegetables, building houses, busing tables, staffing meat-packing plants and cleaning hotel rooms.
Immigrants living illegally in the US account for roughly 18 percent of employment in agriculture, 13 percent in construction and 10 percent at restaurants, hotels and casinos, according to a study done last year by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBEC).
“The economic shock would cause widespread ramifications,” says Ben Gitis, director of labor market policy at the American Action Forum, a conservative think tank.
Addressing Congress on Tuesday night, Trump vowed to build “a great, great wall” to bar Mexicans from entering the US illegally. Even as he spoke, the president said, US authorities were deporting the “bad ones.”
The president’s tough talk followed remarks he had made to CBS’s “60 Minutes” after his November election: He warned that his administration might deport 2 million to 3 million of those living in the country illegally.
Yet what exactly Trump wants to do about illegal immigration remains hazy because he has said different things at different times. On Tuesday before his speech, for example, the president had signaled a potential shift in a private meeting with news anchors.
He told them he was open to legislation that would give legal status to some people living illegally in the US and provide a pathway to citizenship to people who were brought to the US illegally as children.
But in his speech Tuesday night, the president omitted any such suggestion. He instead promised to target people living in the US illegally who “threaten our communities” and prey on “innocent citizens.”
Economists note that immigrants, including those working in the country without permission, play a vital role in the US economy, and not only because they fill many low-paying jobs that Americans will not or can not do.
The US, like Japan and western Europe, is being hobbled economically by an aging and slower-growing workforce. Economic growth depends on a steadily growing supply of workers.
But aging baby boomers are retiring. And an unusually large proportion of prime-age men have stopped looking for work. Nearly eight years after the end of the Great Recession, the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.8 percent, near what economists consider full employment.
As older Americans retire, younger ones are increasingly choosing to enroll in college rather than start work right out of high school. One result is that it is become harder for employers to fill the entry-level jobs that are often taken by immigrants living in the US illegally.
Gitis reviewed the numbers and said he reached a striking conclusion: Suppose, he says, the US were to deport or otherwise lose all the estimated 6.8 million immigrants working in the country illegally. At full employment, there would not be enough legal workers to fill all those jobs. At least 4 million jobs would go unfilled.
Still, critics have often argued that low-wage immigrants in the US end up depressing pay for everyone else. And economists have long wrangled over that possibility.
A paper issued last month by the NBEC studied what happened in 1964 when the government cut the supply of seasonal Mexican farm workers entering the US. By excluding the Mexicans, the move was supposed to create jobs for American farm workers and raise their wages.
But researchers Ethan Lewis of Dartmouth College and Michael Clemens and Hannah Postel of the Center for Global Development found that barring Mexican farm workers “failed to raise wages or substantially raise employment for domestic workers.” Instead of hiring Americans, farms turned to machines to pick cotton and tomatoes and to tend to sugar beets.
Economist Ryan Edwards of Mills College says US employers would likely shrink their businesses — rather than search in vain for legal workers — if they lost workers to mass deportations.
The cutbacks could take a heavy economic toll. Edwards and Francesc Ortega of the City University of New York estimate that immigrant workers living in the country illegally account for 3 percent of private gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic output — or nearly $5 trillion over 10 years.
Mass deportations could impose other costs as well. Gitis estimates that the government would have to spend $400 billion to $600 billion to deport all those living in the US without permission and to prevent future illegal immigration.
In a 2013 study, the Social Security Administration found that immigrants living in the country without permission had paid $13 billion into Social Security in 2010 and received only $1 billion in benefits. The administration concluded that their contributions had had “a net positive effect” on Social Security finances.
So mass deportations mean “we’d not only be losing workers,” Gitis says. “We’d lose consumers, even taxpayers.”
Deporting undocumented immigrants will slow US economy: Experts
Deporting undocumented immigrants will slow US economy: Experts
Tech, auto shares gain as Trump floats more tariff exemptions amid confusion
GDANSK/BENGALURU: Big Tech and auto shares rose after the US removed smartphones and other electronics from its tariffs on China over the weekend, and after President Donald Trump added new wrinkles into his vacillating trade policy on Monday by suggesting he might grant exemptions on auto-related levies already in place.
Trump’s aggressive tariffs, which would have raised the rate consumers and businesses would have to pay for imported goods by roughly 25 percent, sparked a selloff in US assets, including stocks, the dollar and Treasury bonds. The market rebounded on Monday, but the broad-market S&P 500 index is still down about 8 percent so far this year.
The shifting stances caused investors to question the safe-haven status that America has long enjoyed and sapped both business and consumer confidence. The shock response forced the White House to backtrack, but Trump over the weekend insisted more levies were in store.
Speaking on Monday at the White House, Trump said he was considering a modification to the 25 percent tariffs imposed on foreign auto and auto parts imports from Mexico, Canada and other places. Those tariffs could raise the costs of a car by thousands of dollars, and Trump said car companies “need a little bit of time because they’re going to make ‘em here.”
US automakers developed a highly integrated supply chain that involves sending vehicles in various stages of completion across the borders several times after the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement that was renegotiated during Trump’s first term. Shares of General Motors and Ford Motor closed 3.5 percent and 4.1 percent higher, respectively, on Monday.
“We share the President’s goal to increase American automotive production, and we appreciate the ongoing dialogue with the Administration. There is increasing awareness that broad tariffs on parts could undermine our shared goal of building a thriving and growing American auto industry, and that many of these supply chain transitions will take time,” said Matt Blunt, head of the American Automotive Policy Council representing Ford, GM and Stellantis, in a statement on Monday.
This weekend’s exemptions suggest the White House was becoming more aware of the pain that tariffs had in store for inflation-weary consumers, especially on popular products such as smartphones, laptops and other electronic devices. However, his promise of more tariffs on other key sectors like semiconductors as soon as next week leaves business in a state of flux. Monday afternoon, the White House said it had launched investigations into whether imports of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors threaten national security, which could be a precursor to slapping tariffs on those products.
“Not only is the scope of the tariff globally hard to grasp, but the uncertainty means businesses will have little confidence in their planning,” said economists at Morgan Stanley on Monday.
Trump and other administration officials, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, have said tariffs are necessary for boosting American manufacturing, and are critical to the White House's tax plans.
However, the tax on imports — which BlackRock estimated on Monday now comes to about 20 percent following the pullback on tariffs on tech imports — has undermined business and consumer confidence. Luxury goods maker LVMH reported a drop in US sales in the most recent quarter, while company executives said they may have “some capacity” to boost product — though its facilities in the US have faced notable problems.
“Prolonged uncertainty raises the risk of recession. It may drag on corporate investment and delay longer-term commitments,” BlackRock wrote, adding that the risk of a short-term accident had eased due to the pullback on tariffs.
Big Tech shares slumped in the past two weeks as tit-for-tat tariffs between Washington and Beijing stoked fears of higher costs, softer consumer demand and the worst supply-chain disruption since the COVID-19 pandemic. Apple rose 2.2 percent on Monday after a 9 percent drop in the past two weeks. Its flagship product, the iPhone — primarily made in China and imported into the US — was at risk of significant price hikes if substantial tariffs persisted, analysts warned.
Trump has maintained a hefty 145 percent tariff on China, including the 20 percent tariffs imposed in February related to fentanyl.
The exemptions cover 20 categories, including computers and laptops, as well as semiconductor devices, memory chips and flat panel displays. Analysts broadly said that the exemptions give companies more time to plan for where tariffs settle out.
“The removal of the worst-case scenario is an element of support (at least temporarily) for the sector,” analyst Alberto Gegra of Equita said.
Other consumer-facing companies including computer hardware makers HP and Dell Technologies rose 2.6 percent and 4 percent, respectively, while chip giant Nvidia edged lower. Nvidia on Monday said it would boost U.S. spending on facilities for AI development — which Trump attributed to the tariff threat.
European and Asian chip stocks also advanced, including major Asian suppliers to companies such as Apple. Foxconn, the largest iPhone assembler, gained 3%, contract laptop maker Quanta rose 5.8 percent and Inventec, which makes AI servers, rose 4.1 percent.
Oil Updates — crude edges up on potential US tariff exemptions on cars
SINGAPORE: Oil prices inched higher on Tuesday, supported by new tariff exemptions floated by US President Donald Trump and a rebound in China crude oil imports in anticipation of tighter Iranian supply, according to Reuters.
Brent crude futures gained 25 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $65.13 per barrel by 9:30 am Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 28 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $61.81.
“Trump granted exemptions on electronic tariffs and signalled an auto tariff relief, both of which are seen as setbacks from the previously announced import levies, hence, providing some relief to risk assets, including oil,” said independent market analyst Tina Teng.
“However, the rally in stocks and growth-sentiment commodities is sceptical, as his policy is unpredictable.”
In the latest development in Trump’s whipsawing trade war, he said he was considering a modification to the 25 percent tariffs imposed on foreign auto and auto parts imports from Mexico, Canada and other places.
The vacillating US trade policies have created uncertainty for global oil markets and pushed OPEC on Monday to lower its demand outlook for the first time since December.
The Trump administration had announced on Friday that it would grant exclusions from tariffs on smartphones, computers and some other electronic goods, most of which are imported from China. That drove both oil benchmarks to settle up slightly higher on Monday.
On Sunday, Trump said he would announce the tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week and a Monday Federal Register filing showed the administration had begun an investigation into imports of semiconductors on April 1.
“The market is digesting fast-moving policy developments on the tariff front, while balancing them with nuclear talks between the US and Iran,” said ING analysts in a Tuesday note.
“Clearly, the market is more focused on tariffs and what they mean for oil demand.”
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday the US could stop Iranian oil exports as part of Trump’s plan to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program.
Also supporting prices were data on Monday showing that China’s crude oil imports in March were up nearly 5 percent from a year earlier, as arrivals of Iranian oil surged in anticipation of tighter US sanctions enforcement.
Kazakhstan said on Monday that its oil output fell 3 percent in the first two weeks of April from the March average, confirming a Reuters report, although that still leaves its production above its OPEC+ quota.
Al-Qasabi calls for Saudi-UK partnership to future-proof skills, jobs
RIYADH: A Saudi-UK Center of Excellence should be established to help secure the future skill sets needed, according to the Kingdom’s minister of commerce.
During a panel discussion titled “Human Capital Reimagined – Launching the Saudi-UK Skills Initiative” on the second day of the Human Capability Initiative 2025 taking place in Riyadh, Majid Al-Qasabi explained that this initiative aligns with the UK’s reputation as a global center of excellence in education, home to top universities, leading research institutions, and world-class vocational schools.
Al-Qasabi speculated on future areas of collaboration: “We need to collaborate and cooperate and coordinate in three areas. Track A, we create a Saudi-UK Center of Excellence for future skills, where we can bring democrats like me, policymakers, private sector opinion leaders, educators, all the stakeholders to co-design future skills.”
He also shed light on additional areas where the two countries should collaborate, including vocational training and leveraging digital platforms.
“We know that the UK, they’re the center of excellence for vocational training, and we desperately need vocational training in Saudi Arabia. So, second track, we create the center of excellence or vocational academies, jointly UK-Saudi Vocational Academy, where your software, your brain power, your experience can be transferred to our boys and girls because this will also be used in the health sector and the newly developed sectors,” the minister said.
“Last, how can we leverage digital platforms to accelerate learning and continuous life learning because things are going too fast, so we create maybe a joined platforms to have continuous education even in the service sector. You know, the UK is the second largest exporter of services globally,” Al-Qasabi added.
He went on to note that the tourism, culture, sports, and creative industries are expected to create 1 million jobs by 2030. The creative economy alone already supports over 80,000 jobs, with strong growth anticipated in film and design, fashion, and digital arts.
“The digital economy is projected to grow from 4.4 percent of GDP in 2020 to over 19 percent by 2030. The health care sector is projected to reach SR250 billion ($66.6 billion) by 2030,” the minister said.
Al-Qasabi added: “The green economy expected over SR2 trillion worth of investments in the pipeline, like sustainable construction, renewable energy, circular economies, and so forth.”
He also emphasized that with 65 percent of the population under the age of 35, investing in lifelong learning is not a choice but a necessity.
Also speaking during the panel, the Kingdom’s Vice Minister of Sport, Bader Al-Kadi, noted that the National Sports Strategy was developed by drawing on insights from other markets, particularly the UK, which has been closely studied as a model for sports development.
“With that learning taken, we have worked on building capabilities in Saudis to ensure that we have the right talents. Not only as athletes, but as a physiotherapist, as psychiatrists, as sports managers, as coaches, and everything around building the ecosystem,” Al-Kadi said.
“We learn also from the UK sustainability in the sports sector. The UK sports sector is 90 percent funded by the private sector. That’s a great target, an ambitious to achieve. In Saudi Arabia today, 15 percent of the sports sector is funded by the private sector, so a big gap and a big ambition for us to work on toward achieving,” he added.
The minister also emphasized that human capability is one of the key enablers underpinning the National Sports Strategy and plays a central role in its development.
“The sports sector will contribute to 13 percent of those jobs that are being created by sports entertainment and tourism sectors,” Al-Kadi said.
“Obviously, sports (sector) is expected to also contribute to the economy. We aim to have sports reaching up to 3 percent of GDP by 2030. This is an ambitious target that we have for ourselves,” he added.
Also present in the same panel, UK’s Minister of Early Education Stephen Morgan underlined that the country wants to start by sharing their work with the Kingdom and, in turn, learn from the Ministry of Education’s initiatives to upskill and retain early-year staff.
“We could also share our experiences of introducing new modern teaching methods, and these include educational technology that tailors learning to individual children and produces data-led results to measure impact,” Morgan said.
He added: “And it’s through the sharing of our practice and resources and knowledge that early education can become a key building block in our partnership on skills training for older students and I have absolutely no doubt that the UK-Saudi Skills Education Partnership will be accessed with a success and we’ve already had notable achievements in our work together on education, such as increasing the number of UK independent schools in the Kingdom and we’re working really hard to deliver more important higher education partnerships for the future.”
Steve Field, UK special healthcare representative to Saudi Arabia, said: “You have a large number of nurses, majority of which are currently working very effectively in the hospital setup. You’ve got some brilliant hospitals, but to deliver the vision you will need to focus on prevention, on primary care and on mental health in addition to your hospital world and of course, if you can do that, you can move care out of hospitals, reduce the cost of healthcare, and also prevent illnesses before you have to treat them.”
He added: “So we’re here to help you. Our universities are really keen to partner with you to develop more nursing schools to support you in your faculty development, in your leadership, and we want to be on this journey with you and finally just to reassure and assure you that the UK government are right behind this and are with you right till the end and beyond.”
Mazen Fakeeh, president of Fakeeh Care Group, who also participated in the session, disclosed that the nursing shortage is a global issue, not just specific to Saudi Arabia.
“Nurses constitute 40 percent of the workforce required to provide care across the globe. Saudi Arabia, we have about. 6.2 nurses per 1,000 population. In Saudi Arabia, the current intake in nursing school is about 5,000 a year. For us to meet the gap, the existing gap and the future gap between 2030 to 2040, we need to increase that intake from the current 5,000 by 150 percent,” Fakeeh said.
He added: “So, there is a huge demand on nursing, nursing training and education. For that, the government had the initiative to reduce the number of years without compromising the quality of training from the current four years plus one year of internship to three years, which is the expedited nursing curriculum in the UK.”
London Business School to open Riyadh office amid rising demand for executive education
RIYADH: London Business School is set to open an office in Riyadh in the coming months, a move its dean says reflects the institution’s long-term commitment to supporting Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the country’s accelerating demand for executive education.
The new location will deliver tailored executive education programs for both public and private sector organizations, building on London Business School’s expanding presence in the Kingdom.
“Opening a third location is a big move for us, and we are making this investment because we strongly believe in the future of Vision 2030,” said Sergei Guriev, dean of London Business School, in an interview with Arab News on the sidelines of the Human Capability Initiative in Riyadh.
“We want to be part of this transformation, and we want to help enhance human capability of Saudi public and private sector organizations through providing leadership and business skills,” he added.
The expansion will mark the school’s third global location and its second in the Middle East after Dubai. It will be managed by Florin Vasvari, appointed executive dean of executive education, Middle East, and Helen Kerkentzes, associate dean of executive education, who will serve as general manager.
“We’ve grown our relationships with Saudi public and private sector organizations a lot. We have many Saudi students coming to our campuses in London and Dubai, but we also teach programs for Saudi corporations as well as, public sector organizations in London and in Riyadh,” Guriev said.
He explained the school runs both open-enrollment and custom-designed programs to meet the needs of Saudi companies.
“Open executive education programs are when students can apply from all sectors of Saudi economies,” he said. “But we also design custom customer-centric programs for Saudi corporations.”
In recent years, the number of Saudi executives enrolling in open-enrollment Executive Education programs has surged by over 250 percent.
Guriev noted that nearly one-third of LBS’s global executive education clients are either Saudi individuals or companies.
“For us, Saudi Arabia is the biggest country for our executive education,” he said.
The Kingdom has also become the top source of students at the school’s Dubai campus.
“Saudi nationals are the biggest national group and account in the last intake, they account for about 40 percent of the student body in Dubai, in our executive MBA program in Dubai,” Guriev noted.
He said the decision to open an office in Riyadh was part of a broader strategic move backed by the school’s leadership.
“When I came on board as a dean, I talked to the board, the governing body of the London Business School. In November, we made the decision to proceed with opening an office,” he said. “In April, we stand on stage with three ministers, holding our commercial registration and investment license, allowing us to operate in Saudi Arabia.”
On gender inclusion, Guriev praised the Kingdom’s progress and reaffirmed LBS’s commitment to advancing female leadership.
“We drastically increase the participation of women in our programs in Saudi Arabia and in London. For us it’s very important and we praise the focus of the government on increasing of economic activity of women,” he said.
“This is one of the great successes of recent years of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. And we want to be part of the success, providing more programs for women, not only in London but here on the ground in Riyadh, making it easier for female business leaders to take programs from London Business School,” Guriev added.
Nigeria embraces AI in education to equip youth for global economy
RIYADH: Nigeria is integrating artificial intelligence into its education system as part of a broader strategy to train its vast youth population for the global tech economy, according to Minister of State for Education Maruf Tunji Alausa.
Speaking to Arab News on the sidelines of the Human Capability Initiative in Riyadh, Alausa said African nations must embrace AI in education while ensuring that students retain critical social skills.
“The basic outcome was that we don’t have a choice now, AI has come to stay. We need to now use AI as part of our learning,” Alausa said. “Countries need to infuse AI to help augment and improve education delivery.”
However, he cautioned against over-reliance on technology, warning that it must not erode children’s social skills. “We have to be sure that it doesn’t leave deficiencies in the skill set, in the social skills of our children,” he added.
With over 60 percent of Africa’s 1.2 billion people under 30 — and Nigeria’s 220 million population being 70 percent youth — Alausa argued that the continent is uniquely positioned to supply skilled labor to aging economies like Europe, Japan, and the US.
“Today, Nigeria has 65 million people between 15 and 29, with 5 million entering the workforce yearly,” he said. “We need to train this youthful population in tech skills — software development, cybersecurity, AI, cloud computing — so they can service companies worldwide while staying in Nigeria.”
Nigeria has launched a digital training academy to upskill university graduates in high-demand tech fields, enabling them to earn online certifications and work remotely for international firms. Alausa urged other African nations to adopt similar models.
During his visit to Saudi Arabia, Alausa toured several academic institutions alongside Education Minister Yousef Al-Benyan and praised the Kingdom’s dual-track approach to higher education.
“Saudi Arabia has gotten it right,” he said.
He also announced forthcoming collaborations between Nigeria and Saudi Arabia in education and skills development.
“As we learn from Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia can also learn from us,” Alausa added.
Held under the patronage of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Human Capability Initiative convened more than 12,000 experts from over 100 countries to address the intersection of education, workforce transformation, and emerging technologies.
This year’s theme, “Beyond Readiness,” focused on AI, inclusive development, and global equity in skills training.
With Nigeria positioning itself as a hub for global tech talent, Alausa’s vision aligns with HCI’s goal of fostering cross-border partnerships to future-proof economies.
