WASHINGTON: If US President Donald Trump’s hard-line stance on illegal immigration leads to large-scale deportations, among those hurt could be the US economy.
That is the view of many economists, who say the US cannot afford to suddenly lose vast numbers of the immigrants who work illegally picking fruit and vegetables, building houses, busing tables, staffing meat-packing plants and cleaning hotel rooms.
Immigrants living illegally in the US account for roughly 18 percent of employment in agriculture, 13 percent in construction and 10 percent at restaurants, hotels and casinos, according to a study done last year by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBEC).
“The economic shock would cause widespread ramifications,” says Ben Gitis, director of labor market policy at the American Action Forum, a conservative think tank.
Addressing Congress on Tuesday night, Trump vowed to build “a great, great wall” to bar Mexicans from entering the US illegally. Even as he spoke, the president said, US authorities were deporting the “bad ones.”
The president’s tough talk followed remarks he had made to CBS’s “60 Minutes” after his November election: He warned that his administration might deport 2 million to 3 million of those living in the country illegally.
Yet what exactly Trump wants to do about illegal immigration remains hazy because he has said different things at different times. On Tuesday before his speech, for example, the president had signaled a potential shift in a private meeting with news anchors.
He told them he was open to legislation that would give legal status to some people living illegally in the US and provide a pathway to citizenship to people who were brought to the US illegally as children.
But in his speech Tuesday night, the president omitted any such suggestion. He instead promised to target people living in the US illegally who “threaten our communities” and prey on “innocent citizens.”
Economists note that immigrants, including those working in the country without permission, play a vital role in the US economy, and not only because they fill many low-paying jobs that Americans will not or can not do.
The US, like Japan and western Europe, is being hobbled economically by an aging and slower-growing workforce. Economic growth depends on a steadily growing supply of workers.
But aging baby boomers are retiring. And an unusually large proportion of prime-age men have stopped looking for work. Nearly eight years after the end of the Great Recession, the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.8 percent, near what economists consider full employment.
As older Americans retire, younger ones are increasingly choosing to enroll in college rather than start work right out of high school. One result is that it is become harder for employers to fill the entry-level jobs that are often taken by immigrants living in the US illegally.
Gitis reviewed the numbers and said he reached a striking conclusion: Suppose, he says, the US were to deport or otherwise lose all the estimated 6.8 million immigrants working in the country illegally. At full employment, there would not be enough legal workers to fill all those jobs. At least 4 million jobs would go unfilled.
Still, critics have often argued that low-wage immigrants in the US end up depressing pay for everyone else. And economists have long wrangled over that possibility.
A paper issued last month by the NBEC studied what happened in 1964 when the government cut the supply of seasonal Mexican farm workers entering the US. By excluding the Mexicans, the move was supposed to create jobs for American farm workers and raise their wages.
But researchers Ethan Lewis of Dartmouth College and Michael Clemens and Hannah Postel of the Center for Global Development found that barring Mexican farm workers “failed to raise wages or substantially raise employment for domestic workers.” Instead of hiring Americans, farms turned to machines to pick cotton and tomatoes and to tend to sugar beets.
Economist Ryan Edwards of Mills College says US employers would likely shrink their businesses — rather than search in vain for legal workers — if they lost workers to mass deportations.
The cutbacks could take a heavy economic toll. Edwards and Francesc Ortega of the City University of New York estimate that immigrant workers living in the country illegally account for 3 percent of private gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic output — or nearly $5 trillion over 10 years.
Mass deportations could impose other costs as well. Gitis estimates that the government would have to spend $400 billion to $600 billion to deport all those living in the US without permission and to prevent future illegal immigration.
In a 2013 study, the Social Security Administration found that immigrants living in the country without permission had paid $13 billion into Social Security in 2010 and received only $1 billion in benefits. The administration concluded that their contributions had had “a net positive effect” on Social Security finances.
So mass deportations mean “we’d not only be losing workers,” Gitis says. “We’d lose consumers, even taxpayers.”
Deporting undocumented immigrants will slow US economy: Experts
Deporting undocumented immigrants will slow US economy: Experts
Saudi banks extend $2.4bn in home loans in Feb.; demand broadens across nationals and expats
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s banks issued SR8.91 billion ($2.37 billion) in new residential mortgages to individuals in February — a 28.33 percent annual increase, according to official data.
Figures from the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, show that apartment lending recorded the highest growth during this period, rising by 46.45 percent to SR2.9 billion.
While houses continue to dominate residential real estate financing with a 62.6 percent share, this is down from 65.24 percent in February 2024 as demand gradually shifts toward apartments.
House loans posted strong growth of 23.05 percent, reaching SR5.57 billion, yet land financing stayed modest at SR436 million, with a minimal increase of 0.61 percent.
This momentum comes as Saudi Arabia pushes toward its Vision 2030 target of achieving 70 percent home ownership.
Demand is being fueled by citizens and a growing expatriate population. A March report by Knight Frank revealed that 72 percent of Saudis and expats aspire to own homes, with the figure soaring to 93 percent among high-income citizens earning more than SR50,000 per month. Among expats, 77 percent now express a desire to buy property in the Kingdom.
Despite the strong demand, affordability remains a challenge, according to Knight Frank — particularly in cities such as Riyadh, where apartment prices have climbed 75 percent since 2019 and villa prices are up 40 percent.
To address this, Saudi authorities are rolling out a wave of regulatory and urban planning reforms. In March, the Royal Commission for Riyadh City and the Council of Economic and Development Affairs unveiled initiatives aimed at stabilizing prices and expanding access to homeownership.
These include lifting restrictions on land transactions and development in key zones of northern Riyadh, unlocking 81.5 sq. km of land for new housing and commercial projects.
At the time, Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan said the move was expected to reduce price volatility, with new plots priced at no more than SR1,500 per sq. meter and made available to Saudi citizens over the age of 25.
As part of its broader Vision 2030 strategy, Saudi Arabia has also been liberalizing real estate laws to attract more foreign investment, especially in fast-growing sectors such as tourism, housing, and special economic zones.
In 2024, officials confirmed that new regulations are underway to expand foreign ownership rights in strategic projects such as NEOM and the Red Sea.
While foreigners can already own residential property in specific zones and access 99-year leases according to the Real Estate Saudi platform, most residential mortgages are concentrated among Saudi nationals, supported by programs like Sakani and Dhamanat.
Foreign investment in Saudi Arabia’s commercial real estate sector is subject to specific regulations and approval processes. Foreign investors are llowed to own real estate necessary for conducting their licensed business activities, including property for offices and employee accommodation, provided they obtain the requisite approval from the Ministry of Investment.
Additionally, for real estate intended for investment purposes — such as buying, selling, or leasing — the investment must meet a minimum threshold of SR30 million, with a commitment to develop the property within five years, according to the Saudi Embassy website in the US.
These measures ensure that foreign investments align with Saudi Arabia’s broader economic objectives and development plans.
Lebanon central bank must counter money laundering and terrorist financing, new governor says
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s central bank must focus on fighting money laundering and terrorist financing, its newly appointed governor said on Friday, as he began the job of salvaging the fragile banking sector and getting it off a global watchdog’s “grey list.”
The Financial Action Task Force placed Lebanon on its list of countries requiring special scrutiny last year in a move many have worried could discourage the foreign investment it needs to recover from a 2019 financial crisis that is still felt today.
Terrorist financing and money laundering are top concerns for the US, which wants to prevent Hezbollah from using the Lebanese financial system and cash flows through the country to re-establish itself.
Karim Souaid, who was appointed last week, listed his main priorities during his official handover with the outgoing acting central bank governor who preceded him.
“The most important of these are combating money laundering and terrorist financing, and identifying and disclosing politically and financially influential individuals, their relatives, and those associated with them,” he said.
Souaid replaces interim chief Wassim Mansouri, who has been overseeing the bank since long-serving governor Riad Salameh’s tenure ended in disgrace in 2023 due to the financial implosion and accusations of embezzlement, which Salameh denies.
Triggered by widespread corruption and profligate spending by the ruling class, the financial crisis in Lebanon brought the banking system to a standstill, creating an estimated $72 billion in losses.
Souaid said the central bank would work to reschedule public debt and pay back depositors, while calling upon private banks to gradually raise their capital by injecting fresh funds.
Those banks unable or unwilling to do so, should look to merge with other institutions. Otherwise, they would be liquidated in an orderly manner, with their licenses revoked and depositors’ rights protected, he said.
Souaid also pledged to safeguard the central bank’s independence from political pressure and prevent conflicts of interest.
“I will ensure that this national institution remains independent in its decision-making, shielded from interference, and grounded in the core principles of transparency and integrity,” he said.
Office returns: Up to 59% of firms to increase investment in workplace fit-outs by 2030, says JLL
RIYADH: The global office sector is rebounding as companies scale back hybrid employment options, increasing demand for workspaces, a new survey shows.
The study by JLL, featured in the Global Office Fit-Out Costs Guide 2025, reveals that 59 percent of organizations are increasing investments in design and fit-outs.
The report, which analyzes data from 68 cities across 40 countries, also highlights that office fit-out costs have risen in the past 12 months across all regions surveyed, with varying degrees of increase.
According to JLL, as in previous years, the highest fit-out costs are found in the US, Canada, and the UK, as well as Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
Singapore and Japan also feature high in the list.
This correlates with the global office spaces market, which was valued at $3.1 trillion in 2022 and is projected to grow to $4.9 trillion by 2032. According to Allied Market Research, this represents a compound annual growth rate of 4.6 percent.
It also aligns with the growth of the office space market fueled by a rise in infrastructure projects for the commercial sector, including the development of new office buildings, business parks, and the renovation of workplaces in urban areas.
In a statement reflecting on the study, JLL’s CEO of Project and Development Services at Work Dynamics Cynthia Kantor said: “Five years following the start of the global pandemic, we continue to see the evolution and growing momentum toward the office sector.”
The JLL analysis further highlighted that multinational corporations must understand regional disparities in office fit-out costs to inform strategic planning.
Regionally, North America commands the highest office fit-out premium, with an average cost of 3,070 per sq. meter, well above the global average of 1,830 per sq. meter.
In Latin America, the average cost is 1,790, while in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, the average price is 1,970. The Asia Pacific region offers the lowest average fit-out cost at $1,460.
Significant variations in office fit-out costs also exist between major urban areas. US cities lead the top 20 municipalities with the highest office fit-out costs, alongside prominent locations like Vancouver, Tokyo, London, and Dubai.
Fast-growing cities in India, South Africa, Vietnam, and China offer some of the lowest fit-out costs despite the fact they are seeing rapid construction growth and an evolving cost landscape.
Macro-economic impacts
The JLL report further sheds light on how, in the markets evaluated, increases in fit-out costs over the past 12 months were primarily driven by inflation, rising material costs, and currency fluctuations.
Additionally, 75 percent of the markets saw a rise in raw material prices, while 50 percent experienced labor shortages that contributed to higher construction costs.
“Organizations need to factor in these potential cost factors throughout global construction when developing their fit-out budgets,” the JLL statement said.
It added that builder works or construction account for the largest component of fit-out costs — 37 percent — in all regions except Latin America.
These costs can be most susceptible to raw material prices and supply chain risks. Mechanical and electrical expenses account for the second-largest cost, varying from 20 percent to 45 percent.
Sustainability continues to fuel growing demand
The study by JLL explains that as interest in healthier, energy-efficient workspaces surges and supply struggles to meet demand, the need for sustainable fit-outs is growing.
According to the survey, 60 percent of markets have seen a rise in client inquiries for more sustainable fit-outs over the past year.
This aligns with recent JLL Future of Work research, which revealed that 66.66 percent of organizations worldwide plan to increase their investment in sustainability over the next five years.
“A large part of sustainable fit-out costs are dedicated to mechanical and electrical services, which, across all countries, were found to account for an average of 29 percent of total fit-out expenses, with some regions reporting 40-50 percent of costs,” the JLL report said.
“However, these upfront costs are often where the greatest long-term cost efficiencies can be found, as research has also shown that investing in upgrades to M&E services can save between 10 percent - 40 percent on operational energy costs, depending on the level of investment and upgrade,” it added.
Investing in energy-efficient components during fit-outs and consulting with sustainability experts early in the planning phase can help incorporate sustainability requirements and costs into decision-making, thereby minimizing the risk of late adjustments, the JLL statement justified.
Optimism for offices amid caution over potential challenges
Despite a positive outlook, office fit-out development faces several challenges.
That said, the report underlines a need for global firms to address local and regional issues such as labor shortages, talent acquisition, and material availability, as well as liquidity to ensure project success.
The report also suggests that economic and political uncertainty, particularly trade and tariff implications, continue to create instability.
Consequently, early planning for lease expirations and strategic investment in existing buildings is set to benefit both landlords and occupiers, helping to manage costs and navigate the tighter timeframes caused by hesitancy around investment.
“The global office sector faces a complex landscape of challenges and opportunities in 2025,” the Director of Research and Strategy at Work Dynamics Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, Ruth Hynes, said.
“As corporate clients grow and expand their footprints, we anticipate the office construction will remain active even amid market uncertainty, and encourage early, strategic planning to ensure the success of fit-out initiatives,” Hynes added.
Oil Updates — crude tumbles 8% as China retaliates with tariffs on US
- Brent and WTI set for lowest close since April 2021
- China to impose retaliatory tariffs on US
LONDON: Oil prices plunged by 8 percent on Friday, heading for their lowest close since the midst of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021, as China hit back in an escalating global trade war with the US after President Donald Trump’s barrage of levies this week.
China announced it will impose additional tariffs of 34 percent on all US goods from April 10. Nations around the world have readied retaliation after Trump raised tariff barriers to their highest in more than a century, leading to a plunge in world financial markets.
Brent futures dived by $5.30, or 7.6 percent, to $64.84 a barrel by 3:54 p.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost $5.47, or 8.2 percent, to $61.48.
Both benchmarks were on course for their biggest weekly losses in percentage terms in more than two years.
“China’s aggressive countermove to US tariffs all but confirms we are heading toward a global trade war; a war that has no winners and which will hurt economic growth and demand for key commodities such as crude oil and refined products,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
Fuelling the oil sell-off was a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, to advance plans for output increases, with the group now aiming to return 411,000 barrels per day to the market in May, up from the previously planned 135,000 bpd.
Imports of oil, gas and refined products were given exemptions from Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, but the policies could stoke inflation, slow economic growth and intensify trade disputes, weighing on oil prices.
Goldman Sachs analysts responded with sharp cuts to their December 2025 targets for Brent and WTI by $5 each to $66 and $62 respectively.
“The risks to our reduced oil price forecast are to the downside, especially for 2026, given growing risks of recession and to a lesser extent of higher OPEC+ supply,” the bank’s head of oil research, Daan Struyven, said in a note.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 11,882.65
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index slipped on Thursday, losing 142.40 points, or 1.18 percent, to close at 11,882.65.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR5.53 billion ($1.47 billion), as 58 stocks advanced and 184 retreated.
Similarly, the Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu lost 445.6 points, or 1.43 percent, to close at 30,640.93. This came as 27 listed stocks advanced while 67 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index lost 20.19 points, or 1.32 percent, to close at 1,504.15.
The best-performing stock of the day was Fitaihi Holding Group, whose share price surged 9.65 percent to SR4.43.
Other top performers included Zamil Industrial Investment Co., whose share price rose 6.57 percent to SR38.85, as well as Mobile Telecommunication Co. Saudi Arabia, whose share price surged 4.97 percent to SR11.82.
Tabuk Agricultural Development Co. recorded the most significant drop, falling 8.58 percent to SR12.36.
Arabian Co. for Agricultural and Industrial Investment also saw its stock price fall 7.59 percent to SR53.60.
Raydan Food Co. also saw its stock price decline 7.44 percent to SR19.16.
Horizon Food Co. has announced the board resolution to transfer from Nomu to the main market and appoint Al-Istithmar Capital as a financial adviser for the transition. According to a Tadawul statement, the transfer is contingent upon approval from the Capital Market Authority in accordance with listing regulations and is subject to meeting all requirements set by the Saudi Exchange.
Horizon Food Co. ended the session at SR40, up 2.56 percent.
Emaar, The Economic City seeks to convert SR4.12 billion worth of debt owed to the Public Investment Fund into capital.
The proposed debt conversion is one component of the company’s capital optimization plan announced in September, designed to stabilize the entity’s financial and operational positions as well as optimize its capital structure to boost its ability to move forward with its growth plans.
Emaar, The Economic City ended the session at SR14.44, down 0.28 percent.
The Saudi Stock Exchange has announced the suspension of trading in the shares of seven listed companies for one session on Thursday due to the firms’ failure to disclose their annual financial statements ending Dec. 31 within the statutory period specified in the Securities Offerings and Continuing Obligations Rules issued by the CMA Board.
From the main market, the firms include Saudi Industrial Development Co., Development Works Food Co., and National Gypsum Co., as well as Arabian Contracting Services Co. and Al Jouf Cement Co.
From the parallel market, the companies are Keir International Co. and Knowledge Net Co.
