WASHINGTON: If US President Donald Trump’s hard-line stance on illegal immigration leads to large-scale deportations, among those hurt could be the US economy.
That is the view of many economists, who say the US cannot afford to suddenly lose vast numbers of the immigrants who work illegally picking fruit and vegetables, building houses, busing tables, staffing meat-packing plants and cleaning hotel rooms.
Immigrants living illegally in the US account for roughly 18 percent of employment in agriculture, 13 percent in construction and 10 percent at restaurants, hotels and casinos, according to a study done last year by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBEC).
“The economic shock would cause widespread ramifications,” says Ben Gitis, director of labor market policy at the American Action Forum, a conservative think tank.
Addressing Congress on Tuesday night, Trump vowed to build “a great, great wall” to bar Mexicans from entering the US illegally. Even as he spoke, the president said, US authorities were deporting the “bad ones.”
The president’s tough talk followed remarks he had made to CBS’s “60 Minutes” after his November election: He warned that his administration might deport 2 million to 3 million of those living in the country illegally.
Yet what exactly Trump wants to do about illegal immigration remains hazy because he has said different things at different times. On Tuesday before his speech, for example, the president had signaled a potential shift in a private meeting with news anchors.
He told them he was open to legislation that would give legal status to some people living illegally in the US and provide a pathway to citizenship to people who were brought to the US illegally as children.
But in his speech Tuesday night, the president omitted any such suggestion. He instead promised to target people living in the US illegally who “threaten our communities” and prey on “innocent citizens.”
Economists note that immigrants, including those working in the country without permission, play a vital role in the US economy, and not only because they fill many low-paying jobs that Americans will not or can not do.
The US, like Japan and western Europe, is being hobbled economically by an aging and slower-growing workforce. Economic growth depends on a steadily growing supply of workers.
But aging baby boomers are retiring. And an unusually large proportion of prime-age men have stopped looking for work. Nearly eight years after the end of the Great Recession, the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.8 percent, near what economists consider full employment.
As older Americans retire, younger ones are increasingly choosing to enroll in college rather than start work right out of high school. One result is that it is become harder for employers to fill the entry-level jobs that are often taken by immigrants living in the US illegally.
Gitis reviewed the numbers and said he reached a striking conclusion: Suppose, he says, the US were to deport or otherwise lose all the estimated 6.8 million immigrants working in the country illegally. At full employment, there would not be enough legal workers to fill all those jobs. At least 4 million jobs would go unfilled.
Still, critics have often argued that low-wage immigrants in the US end up depressing pay for everyone else. And economists have long wrangled over that possibility.
A paper issued last month by the NBEC studied what happened in 1964 when the government cut the supply of seasonal Mexican farm workers entering the US. By excluding the Mexicans, the move was supposed to create jobs for American farm workers and raise their wages.
But researchers Ethan Lewis of Dartmouth College and Michael Clemens and Hannah Postel of the Center for Global Development found that barring Mexican farm workers “failed to raise wages or substantially raise employment for domestic workers.” Instead of hiring Americans, farms turned to machines to pick cotton and tomatoes and to tend to sugar beets.
Economist Ryan Edwards of Mills College says US employers would likely shrink their businesses — rather than search in vain for legal workers — if they lost workers to mass deportations.
The cutbacks could take a heavy economic toll. Edwards and Francesc Ortega of the City University of New York estimate that immigrant workers living in the country illegally account for 3 percent of private gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic output — or nearly $5 trillion over 10 years.
Mass deportations could impose other costs as well. Gitis estimates that the government would have to spend $400 billion to $600 billion to deport all those living in the US without permission and to prevent future illegal immigration.
In a 2013 study, the Social Security Administration found that immigrants living in the country without permission had paid $13 billion into Social Security in 2010 and received only $1 billion in benefits. The administration concluded that their contributions had had “a net positive effect” on Social Security finances.
So mass deportations mean “we’d not only be losing workers,” Gitis says. “We’d lose consumers, even taxpayers.”
Deporting undocumented immigrants will slow US economy: Experts
Deporting undocumented immigrants will slow US economy: Experts

Pakistan stock market breaches 130,000 barrier amid low inflation, surging oil prices

- Pakistan’s KSE-100 Index closes at 130,244.03 points, surging by 2,144.61 or gaining 1.67% from previous day
- Latest milestone builds on strong showing in the previous fiscal year, when the KSE-100 Index rose by 60 percent
KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index breached the 130,000 points barrier to close at an all-time high on Wednesday, as financial analysts attributed the surge to low inflation and surging crude oil prices.
The development takes place a day after Pakistan’s KSE-100 Index closed at an impressive 128,199.42 points on the first day of the new fiscal year, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif calling the stocks’ performance a sign of growing investor confidence in the economy and government policies. The latest milestone builds on a strong showing in the previous fiscal year, when the KSE-100 Index rose by 60 percent, according to Karachi-based Topline Securities.
The Pakistani stock market closed at 130,344.03 points when trading ended on Wednesday. Continuing its bullish momentum, the index surged by 2,144.61 points, recording a gain of 1.67 percent from the previous day’s close.
“Stocks closed at new all-time high in the earning season at PSX as investors weigh drop in CPI inflation to 3.2 percent YoY and upbeat data on POL sales surging by 7pc for June 25,” Ahsan Mehanti, chief executive officer at Arif Habib Commodities Limited, said.
Mehanti said higher global equities and Pakistani power regulatory authority’s recent move to slash the base power tariff for industries for the current fiscal year also played a role in the bullish close. He also paid credit to surging crude oil prices, saying they had played a “catalyst role” in the surge.
Karachi-based brokerage firm Topline Securities said the surge was fueled by “aggressive institutional buying” and a wave of fresh fiscal-year optimism among investors.
“With the index in uncharted territory, all eyes are now on earnings season and macro signals to see if the bulls have more steam left or if a breather is around the corner,” it said in a statement.
Pakistan’s stocks surge as Islamabad seeks to consolidate its financial recovery after years of economic turbulence.
In recent years, the country has undertaken difficult structural reforms under International Monetary Fund loan programs aimed at curbing fiscal deficits and restoring investor trust.
Global oil demand rose 1.5% in 2024 despite production dip: OPEC report

RIYADH: Global oil demand climbed by 1.49 million barrels per day, or 1.5 percent, year on year in 2024 to reach an average of 103.84 million bpd, according to newly released data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Demand rose across nearly all regions, with the strongest gains recorded in non-OECD Asia, particularly China and India, followed by the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and OECD Europe. Within OPEC member countries, oil demand rose by 0.12 million bpd, or 1.3 percent, year on year.
However, total world crude oil production declined for the first time since 2020, falling by 0.77 million bpd, or 1 percent, to average 72.58 million bpd in 2024. OPEC attributed the drop to lower output from both its members and non-OPEC producers participating in the Declaration of Cooperation.
OPEC nations cut production by 0.57 million bpd, or 2.1 percent, while non-OPEC DoC participants saw a steeper decline of 0.78 million bpd, or 5.2 percent. In contrast, crude production from countries not involved in the DoC rose by 0.58 million bpd, or 1.8 percent.
Refining capacity
Global refining capacity increased by 1.04 million bpd in 2024 to reach 103.80 million bpd. Most of this expansion came from the non-OECD region, notably China, India, and the Middle East.
For the first time since 2019, members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development also saw a modest increase in refining capacity—up by 0.16 million bpd—driven by additions in the Americas, although partially offset by closures in Europe and Asia Pacific.
Refinery throughput also saw a modest rise, growing by 0.52 million bpd, or 0.6 percent, to 85.97 million bpd. This was largely due to increased run rates in OECD Americas and non-OECD regions, including the Middle East, Africa, India, and Other Asia.
Exports down, product shipments up
OPEC’s crude oil exports declined by 0.70 million bpd, or 3.5 percent, in 2024 to average 19.01 million bpd. Asia continued to be the primary destination for OPEC crude, receiving 13.67 million bpd, or 71.9 percent of total exports.
In contrast, exports of petroleum products from OPEC members rose by 0.29 million bpd, or 6.1 percent, reaching an average of 5.07 million bpd during the year.
Global proven crude oil reserves stood at 1,567 billion barrels at the end of 2024, marking a slight increase of 2 billion barrels, or 0.1 percent, from the previous year. Proven reserves in OPEC members remained unchanged at 1,241 billion barrels.
Gulf bourses end mixed on US tariff uncertainty

- Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index edged 0.1% higher
- Dubai’s main share index dropped 0.4%
LONDON: Stock markets in the Gulf ended mixed on Wednesday as investors monitored global trade developments ahead of the US’ potential re-imposition of sweeping tariffs on July 9.
President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he was not thinking of extending the July 9 deadline for countries to negotiate trade deals with the US, and continued to express doubt that an agreement could be reached with Japan.
Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index edged 0.1 percent higher, after two consecutive sessions of losses, helped by 1.7 percent rise in Saudi Arabian Mining Company.
The cautious mood dominating the region contributed to mixed sector performances, said Joseph Dahrieh, managing principal at Tickmill.
“Investors are awaiting further developments to gain more clarity, while low oil prices continue to pose a risk, despite a positive economic outlook,” he said.
Among gainers, oil giant Saudi Aramco rose 0.8 percent.
Oil futures edged up as Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog and markets weighed expectations of more supply from major producers next month, while the US dollar softened further.
Dubai’s main share index dropped 0.4 percent, hit by a 1.3 percent fall in toll operator Salik Company.
Separately, Dubai commuters may soon have a new way to beat traffic, as Joby Aviation successfully completed the first test flight of its fully-electric air taxi in the emirate this week — a significant step toward the city’s goal of integrating airborne transport into its mobility network as early as next year.
In Abu Dhabi, the index eased 0.1 percent, while the Qatari index closed flat.
A report on Tuesday suggested that the US labor market stayed resilient in May, sharpening the focus on US nonfarm payrolls figures due on Thursday as investors try to gauge when the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates next.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday reiterated the US central bank’s plans to “wait and learn more” before lowering rates.
Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index added 0.4 percent, with Talaat Moustafa Holding rising 0.9 percent.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index inches up to close at 11,129

- MSCI Tadawul 30 Index gained 0.24% to finish at 1,423.94
- Parallel market Nomu increased 0.48% to settle at 27,375.84
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index gained 8.04 points, or 0.07, to close at 11,129.64 on Wednesday.
Total trading turnover reached SR5.41 billion ($1.44 billion), with 103 stocks posting gains and 140 declining.
The Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, also recorded an increase, gaining 130.72 points, or 0.48 percent, to settle at 27,375.84, as 32 stocks advanced and 41 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul 30 Index also gained 3.34 points, or 0.24 percent, to finish at 1,423.94.
BAAN Holding Group Co. was the best-performing stock of the session, with its share price rising 9.73 percent to SR2.48. Saudi Industrial Export Co. followed with a 7.66 percent increase to SR2.39.
Other gainers included Almunajem Foods Co., which rose to a fresh year high on Wednesday, closing at SR77 with a 5.77 percent increase.
On the losing side, Buruj Cooperative Insurance Co. saw the steepest decline, falling 3.24 percent to SR17.92. Saudi Industrial Development Co. dropped 3.07 percent to SR30.9, and National Shipping Co. of Saudi Arabia declined 3.06 percent to SR23.75.
On the announcements front, Saudi Arabian Mining Co., also known as Ma’aden, finalized its acquisition of all shares owned by AWA Saudi and Alcoa Saudi in two of its major subsidiaries, according to a statement on the Saudi Stock Exchange.
The move follows the approval by Ma’aden’s extraordinary general assembly on June 25 to increase the company’s capital through a share issuance as consideration for acquiring the remaining stakes in Ma’aden Bauxite and Alumina Co. and Ma’aden Aluminium Co.
According to Ma’aden, the acquisition was made effective, and share allocation procedures were completed on July 1. The newly issued shares were deposited in favor of AWA Saudi and Alcoa Saudi, with the holdings officially listed on the same day.
The acquisition involved Ma’aden purchasing AWA Saudi’s entire stake in Ma’aden Bauxite and Alumina Co., totaling 128,010,000 ordinary shares — equivalent to 25.1 percent of the company’s issued capital.
It also included Alcoa Saudi’s full shareholding in Ma’aden Aluminium Co., amounting to 165,001,125 ordinary shares, or 25.1 percent of the company’s issued capital.
To execute the transaction, Ma’aden increased its capital from SR38.03 billion to SR38.89 billion — a 2.26 percent rise. As a result, the total number of its ordinary shares grew from 3.80 billion to 3.89 billion.
Under the new share distribution, Alcoa Saudi received 67,612,162 new ordinary shares, representing 1.74 percent of Ma’aden’s post-acquisition capital, while AWA Saudi received 18,365,385, or 0.47 percent of the capital.
Additionally, Ma’aden paid AWA Saudi SR562.5 million in cash as part of the transaction. The company emphasized that the acquisition does not involve any related parties.
The financial implications of the deal will be reflected in Ma’aden’s consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ending June 30.
Ma’aden’s share price closed 1.72 percent higher to reach SR53.25.
Saudi National Bank announced its plan to redeem its SR2 billion tier-1 capital sukuk in full on July 15, marking the 10th anniversary of the instrument’s issuance.
The sukuk, which was launched on July 15, 2015, will be redeemed at face value — 100 percent of the issue price — in accordance with the terms and conditions set at issuance, the bank stated in a press release published on Tadawul.
The move follows Saudi National Bank’s securing of the necessary regulatory approval to proceed with the redemption. The full principal amount, along with any accrued but unpaid periodic distributions, will be paid to sukuk holders on the redemption date.
The SR2 billion sukuk issuance comprised 2,000 certificates, each with a face value of SR1 million. It represented 100 percent of the issued sukuk under this offering. Following the redemption, the total value of the sukuk issuance will be reduced to zero.
This redemption reflects the bank’s capital management strategy and its ongoing commitment to optimizing its financial structure.
The bank’s share price closed 0.34 percent higher on Wednesday’s session to SR35.84.
International visitor spending in Saudi Arabia hits $13bn in Q1

- Rise pushed Kingdom’s travel account surplus to SR26.78 billion
- Saudi Arabia welcomed 115.9 million tourists in 2024
RIYADH: International tourists spent SR49.37 billion ($13.16 billion) in Saudi Arabia during the first quarter of 2025, a 10 percent increase compared to the same period last year, recent data showed.
According to figures released by the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, the rise pushed the Kingdom’s travel account surplus to SR26.78 billion, up 11.7 percent year on year, underlining the sector’s growing contribution to the country’s non-oil economy.
This comes as Saudi Arabia accelerates its Vision 2030 push to position tourism as a pillar of economic diversification, raising its target to 150 million annual visitors by 2030 after surpassing the 100 million mark ahead of schedule.
In 2024, the sector hit a milestone, with international tourism revenue soaring 148 percent from 2019 — the fastest growth among G20 nations.

Saudi Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb, commenting on the sector’s performance following the release of the Ministry of Tourism’s 2024 Annual Statistical Report in June, said the document “showcases the sector’s remarkable growth and its role in enabling Saudi Vision 2030, a record performance achieved with the support and guidance of the Kingdom’s visionary leadership.”
The report said that Saudi Arabia welcomed 115.9 million tourists in 2024 — 29.7 million inbound and 86.2 million domestic trips — easily surpassing the Vision 2030 milestone of 100 million visits, five years ahead of schedule.
Total visitor spending reached SR283.8 billion, of which SR168.5 billion came from international travelers and SR115.3 billion from domestic tourists.
Since Vision 2030’s launch, Saudi tourism has expanded at breakneck speed. Inbound arrivals have climbed from 17.5 million in 2019 to 29.7 million in 2024, a 70 percent jump, while their spending ballooned by 63 percent, from SR103.4 billion to SR168.5 billion over the same period.
Domestic trips almost doubled, according to the annual report figures, rising from 47.8 million to 86.2 million over the same period.
The sector’s success is underpinned by multibillion-riyal investments in destination infrastructure. The first island resorts of the Red Sea Project will open later this year, while construction races ahead at NEOM’s Trojena mountain resort and Riyadh’s heritage-rich Diriyah Gate.

Developers are lining up more than 320,000 hotel rooms, and Red Sea International Airport is expected to start commercial flights in 2025, sharpening long-haul connectivity for high-end travelers.
Global recognition has followed, with UN Tourism data, cited in the Annual Statistical Report, showing Saudi Arabia ranked first among G20 nations for growth in international tourist numbers in 2024 and second globally compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Speaking in April 2024, Ahmad Arab, founder of tourism and hospitality firm DRB Arabia and former deputy minister at the Ministry of Tourism, told GLG Insights the industry is on track to create 1 million related jobs by 2030, solidifying its place as a cornerstone of the Kingdom’s diversifying non-oil economy.
A notable trend, according to the Ministry of Tourism’s annual report, is the shift toward leisure travel. Non-religious visits accounted for 59 percent of inbound arrivals in 2024, up from 44 percent in 2019, as streamlined e-visas, entertainment seasons, and high-profile sporting events broadened the Kingdom’s appeal.
Egypt remained the top source market with 3.2 million visitors, followed by Pakistan with 2.8 million and Bahrain with 2.6 million. Makkah Al-Mukarramah led all destinations with 17.4 million overnight foreign visitors, while Riyadh and Jeddah also attracted millions.
Domestic tourism is expanding in parallel: trips rose 5 percent to 86.2 million in 2024, fueling record domestic outlays of SR115.3 billion. Leisure remained the top purpose, helped by school-holiday campaigns and new regional festivals.
With first-quarter spending at an all-time high and visitor volumes already outpacing long-term targets, Riyadh’s next challenge is to sustain capacity growth while maintaining service quality.