DIYARBAKIR, TURKEY: In rallies from the Kurdish southeast to the northern Black Sea coast, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has seemed to attempt the impossible: win over both nationalists and Kurds with threats to make spring a “black winter” for Kurdish militants.
In campaign speeches ahead of an April 16 referendum on increasing his powers, Erdogan has signalled that army operations to crush Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants could intensify and spread into Syria and Iraq in the months ahead.
“With God’s permission, it will be spring for Turkey and the Turkish people and a black winter for terrorists,” Erdogan told supporters on Monday in Trabzon, a heavily nationalist town on the Black Sea coast.
Such fighting talk plays well with nationalists who abhor the idea of renewed peace talks with the PKK, which first took up arms more than three decades ago and is considered a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and European Union.
But it is a message he has also taken to the largely Kurdish southeast, courting those conservative Kurds who blame the militants for an upsurge in violence that the United Nations says has killed 2,000 people and displaced half a million since a cease-fire collapsed in July 2015.
“Could there be peace with those who walk around with weapons in their hands?” Erdogan said, addressing a crowd of several thousand waving Turkish flags amid tight security in the region’s largest city Diyarbakir last Saturday.
“Nobody can divide our land. Those who try will find our armed forces, our police, our village guards up against them.”
On the surface, life appears to have returned to normal in parts of Diyarbakir. But heavily armed security forces man checkpoints in some areas, and disillusionment and anger at both the state and the PKK run deep.
Bombed-out buildings and heaps of rubble are contained within the Roman-era walls of its ancient Sur district, devastated last year by tanks and artillery when security forces fought PKK militants who dug trenches and laid explosives.
“There is great pessimism across the region,” said Yavuz Celik, 32, a local shopkeeper.
“There’s always pressure. We’re even scared of gathering in small groups ... During the peace process it was very different. We were even able to dance together in the street here.”
POLITICIANS JAILED
Opinion polls suggest a tight race in the referendum, although the latest research this week suggests momentum is swinging in Erdogan’s favor, putting support for the constitutional changes at around 53 percent.
Erdogan risked a nationalist backlash when he launched peace talks with the PKK in 2012, a move praised by European allies and seen as a step toward unlocking the economic potential of Turkey’s southeast bordering Syria, Iran and Iraq.
There has been heavy fighting since the cease-fire broke down almost two years ago and Erdogan’s pitch for support in the referendum has run into opposition from the pro-Kurdish opposition.
The pro-Kurdish HDP, the second largest opposition group in parliament, played a key role as a mediator in the peace process. But its leaders and thousands of its members, who oppose any greater powers for Erdogan in the referendum, have been jailed over the past year for alleged militant links.
HDP co-leader Selahattin Demirtas, who has called for a “no” vote in the referendum, issued a defiant statement from jail this week, calling on people to resist what he called the “tyranny” of a government creating “an atmosphere of fear.”
“The closure of political channels unfortunately empowers those in the Kurdish movement who believe armed means are legitimate,” said Diba Nigar Goksel, Turkey director for the International Crisis Group think tank.
“There is no durable military solution to Turkey’s PKK conflict,” she said. “Peace talks between Ankara and the PKK are the only way forward for a durable solution.”
SYRIA AND IRAQ
Nationalists in Turkey have been incensed by the growing sway of Kurdish militia fighters in Syria and the presence of PKK leaders in northern Iraq, an issue which Erdogan suggested he would address in future military operations.
Turkey’s conflict with the PKK has been fueled in recent years by events across the border in Syria, where the Kurdish YPG militia has enjoyed US support in the fight against Islamic State, and in Iraq, where Ankara fears the militants are exploiting a security vacuum.
Erdogan described Turkey’s “Euphrates Shield” operation, an incursion into northern Syrian to push back Islamic State and try to prevent YPG gains, as just a first phase and spoke of a “roadmap” for more operations both there and in Iraq.
“It is not an operation which only has a Syrian dimension. This matter has an Iraqi dimension too,” he said in a television interview on Tuesday evening.
Turkey’s Erdogan courts nationalists, Kurds alike with hard line on PKK
Turkey’s Erdogan courts nationalists, Kurds alike with hard line on PKK
15 Turkish-backed fighters killed in north Syria clashes with Kurdish-led forces
BEIRUT: At least 15 Ankara-backed Syrian fighters were killed Sunday after Kurdish-led forces infiltrated their territory in the country’s north, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said.
Fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who controls swathes of the country’s northeast, “infiltrated positions of the Turkish-backed” fighters in the Aleppo countryside, said the Observatory, which has a network of sources inside Syria.
“The two sides engaged in violent clashes” that killed 15 of the Ankara-backed fighters, the monitor said.
An AFP correspondent in Syria’s north said the clashes had taken place near the city of Al-Bab, where authorities said schools would be suspended on Monday due to the violence.
The SDF is a US-backed force that spearheaded the fighting against the Daesh group in its last Syria strongholds before its territorial defeat in 2019.
It is dominated by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), viewed by Ankara as an offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) which claimed the attack on Ankara.
Turkish troops and allied rebel factions control swathes of northern Syria following successive cross-border offensives since 2016, most of them targeting the SDF.
Israel moving towards a ceasefire deal in Lebanon, Axios reports
BEIRUT: Israel is moving towards a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon with the Hezbollah militant group, Axios reporter Barak Ravid posted on X on Sunday, citing a senior Israeli official.
A separate report from Israel's public broadcaster Kan, citing an Israeli official, said there was no green light given on an agreement in Lebanon, with issues still yet to be resolved.
Russia plane evacuated in Turkiye as engine catches fire
- “Eighty nine passengers and six crew members on board were safely evacuated at 9:43 p.m. (1843 GMT) and there were no injuries”
ISTANBUL: More than 90 passengers and crew were evacuated from a Russian plane Sunday after one of its engines caught fire while landing at an airport in southern Turkiye, the transport ministry said.
The incident involved a Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SU95) operated by Russia’s Azimuth Airlines.
They plane had just landed at Antalya airport on Turkiye’s Mediterranean coast when a fire broke out in one of its engines, a ministry statement said.
“A SU95 type and RA89085-registered aircraft of Azimuth Airlines traveling from Sochi airport in Russia to Antalya airport had an engine fire during landing,” it said.
“Eighty nine passengers and six crew members on board were safely evacuated at 9:43 p.m. (1843 GMT) and there were no injuries.”
All further scheduled landings at the airport would be canceled until 3:00 am, it added, saying other planes waiting to depart would use the airport’s military runway for takeoff.
An airport official told Anadolou state news agency that the fire had affected its left engine but had been quickly extinguished.
War-hit Lebanon suspends in-person classes in Beirut area til end of December
- Education minister announced “the suspension of in-person teaching” in schools, technical institutes and private higher education institutions in Beirut
- Suspension of in-person teaching also applies to parts of neighboring Metn, Baabda and Shouf districts starting Monday
BEIRUT: Lebanon has suspended in-person classes in the Beirut area until the end of December, the education ministry announced Sunday, citing safety concerns after a series of Israeli air strikes this week.
Education Minister Abbas Halabi announced in a statement “the suspension of in-person teaching” in schools, technical institutes and private higher education institutions in Beirut and parts of the neighboring Metn, Baabda and Shouf districts starting Monday “for the safety of students, educational institutions and parents, in light of the current dangerous conditions.”
Earlier on Sunday, Lebanese state media reported two Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, about an hour after the Israeli military posted evacuation calls online for parts of the Hezbollah bastion.
“Israeli warplanes launched two violent strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs in the Kafaat area,” the official National News Agency said.
The southern Beirut area has been repeatedly struck since September 23 when Israel intensified its air campaign also targeting Hezbollah bastions in Lebanon’s east and south. It later sent in ground troops to southern Lebanon.
Legal threats close in on Israel’s Netanyahu, could impact ongoing wars
- The trial opened in 2020 and Netanyahu is finally scheduled to take the stand next month after the court rejected his latest request to delay testimony on the grounds that he had been too busy overseeing the war to prepare his defense
JERUSALEM: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces legal perils at home and abroad that point to a turbulent future for the Israeli leader and could influence the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, analysts and officials say. The International Criminal Court (ICC) stunned Israel on Thursday by issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the 13-month-old Gaza conflict. The bombshell came less than two weeks before Netanyahu is due to testify in a corruption trial that has dogged him for years and could end his political career if he is found guilty. He has denied any wrongdoing. While the domestic bribery trial has polarized public opinion, the prime minister has received widespread support from across the political spectrum following the ICC move, giving him a boost in troubled times.
Netanyahu has denounced the court’s decision as antisemitic and denied charges that he and Gallant targeted Gazan civilians and deliberately starved them.
“Israelis get really annoyed if they think the world is against them and rally around their leader, even if he has faced a lot of criticism,” said Yonatan Freeman, an international relations expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
“So anyone expecting that the ICC ruling will end this government, and what they see as a flawed (war) policy, is going to get the opposite,” he added.
A senior diplomat said one initial consequence was that Israel might be less likely to reach a rapid ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon or secure a deal to bring back hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza.
“This terrible decision has ... badly harmed the chances of a deal in Lebanon and future negotiations on the issue of the hostages,” said Ofir Akunis, Israel’s consul general in New York.
“Terrible damage has been done because these organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas ... have received backing from the ICC and thus they are likely to make the price higher because they have the support of the ICC,” he told Reuters.
While Hamas welcomed the ICC decision, there has been no indication that either it or Hezbollah see this as a chance to put pressure on Israel, which has inflicted huge losses on both groups over the past year, as well as on civilian populations.
IN THE DOCK The ICC warrants highlight the disconnect between the way the war is viewed here and how it is seen by many abroad, with Israelis focused on their own losses and convinced the nation’s army has sought to minimize civilian casualties.
Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said the ICC move would likely harden resolve and give the war cabinet license to hit Gaza and Lebanon harder still.
“There’s a strong strand of Israeli feeling that runs deep, which says ‘if we’re being condemned for what we are doing, we might just as well go full gas’,” he told Reuters.
While Netanyahu has received wide support at home over the ICC action, the same is not true of the domestic graft case, where he is accused of bribery, breach of trust and fraud.
The trial opened in 2020 and Netanyahu is finally scheduled to take the stand next month after the court rejected his latest request to delay testimony on the grounds that he had been too busy overseeing the war to prepare his defense.
He was due to give evidence last year but the date was put back because of the war. His critics have accused him of prolonging the Gaza conflict to delay judgment day and remain in power, which he denies. Always a divisive figure in Israel, public trust in Netanyahu fell sharply in the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas assault on southern Israel that caught his government off guard, cost around 1,200 lives.
Israel’s subsequent campaign has killed more than 44,000 people and displaced nearly all Gaza’s population at least once, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe, according to Gaza officials.
The prime minister has refused advice from the state attorney general to set up an independent commission into what went wrong and Israel’s subsequent conduct of the war.
He is instead looking to establish an inquiry made up only of politicians, which critics say would not provide the sort of accountability demanded by the ICC.
Popular Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth said the failure to order an independent investigation had prodded the ICC into action. “Netanyahu preferred to take the risk of arrest warrants, just as long as he did not have to form such a commission,” it wrote on Friday.
ARREST THREAT The prime minister faces a difficult future living under the shadow of an ICC warrant, joining the ranks of only a few leaders to have suffered similar humiliation, including Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi and Serbia’s Slobodan Milosevic.
It also means he risks arrest if he travels to any of the court’s 124 signatory states, including most of Europe.
One place he can safely visit is the United States, which is not a member of the ICC, and Israeli leaders hope US President-elect Donald Trump will bring pressure to bear by imposing sanctions on ICC officials.
Mike Waltz, Trump’s nominee for national security adviser, has already promised tough action: “You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January,” he wrote on X on Friday. In the meantime, Israeli officials are talking to their counterparts in Western capitals, urging them to ignore the arrest warrants, as Hungary has already promised to do.
However, the charges are not going to disappear soon, if at all, meaning fellow leaders will be increasingly reluctant to have relations with Netanyahu, said Yuval Shany, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.
“In a very direct sense, there is going to be more isolation for the Israeli state going forward,” he told Reuters.
