JERUSALEM/BEIRUT: Two Israeli air strikes against Hezbollah targets in Syria in recent weeks seem to mark a more openly assertive stance toward the group after years of shadow boxing, requiring careful calibration to avoid escalation into a war that neither wants.
For most of the six-year-long conflict in Syria, Israel has stuck determinedly to the sidelines, not wanting to get sucked into the chaos unfolding to its northeast. While it is suspected of carrying out occasional attacks against minor targets, it has tended not to confirm or deny involvement.
But it is determined to stop Lebanon’s Hezbollah, with which it fought a 2006 war, and which it sees as the top strategic threat on its borders, from using its role in the Syrian war to gain weapons and experience that could ultimately endanger Israel.
Since early in the conflict, the Shiite movement’s energies have been focused on propping up President Bashar Assad in alliance with Iran and Russia, throwing thousands of its fighters into battle against Syrian rebels.
But although this strategy makes the prospect of a new war with Israel unwelcome to Hezbollah, it has not altered its view of the country as its foremost enemy, or stopped it strengthening its position for any new conflict.
In the past six weeks, two Israeli attacks appear to have marked a shift, underscoring Israel’s intent to squeeze Hezbollah and coming as the Trump administration carried out its own missile strikes in Syria.
In both cases, Israeli officials have also been less guarded about acknowledging who was behind the attacks.
On March 17, Israel struck a site near Palmyra, prompting Syria’s army to retaliate with Russian-supplied anti-aircraft missiles and on April 27, it hit an arms depot in Damascus where Hezbollah was suspected of storing weapons supplied by Iran.
“The incident in Syria corresponds completely with Israel’s policy to act to prevent Iran’s smuggling of advanced weapons via Syria to Hezbollah,” Intelligence Minister Israel Katz said of the strike last week, but without explicitly confirming Israel carried it out.
Hezbollah has also bared its teeth, conducting a media tour along the Lebanon-Israel border that was widely interpreted as a message that it was unafraid of a new war, and hinting that any coming conflict might involve attacks on Israeli settlements.
A larger strike by Israel, or one that misses its target with unintended consequences, might provoke an escalation, further destabilising Syria and sucking Israel into an already complex conflict.
It’s an outcome that neither Israel nor Hezbollah wants, but in a war that has already produced many unpredictable outcomes, it is not out of the question either.
Rules of the game
Hezbollah is an Iranian-backed movement that was formed to combat Israel’s 1982-2000 occupation of Lebanon. Its battlefield prowess, extensive social works among Lebanese Shiites and its alliance with powerful regional states have helped it secure a dominant role in the country’s politics.
Since the 2006 war with Israel, which killed more than 1,300 people, displaced a million in Lebanon and up to 500,000 in Israel, both sides have engaged in brinkmanship but avoided renewed conflict.
Both say they do not want another war, but don’t shy away from saying they are ready for one if it does end up happening.
Last month, Hezbollah took Lebanese journalists on a tour of the southern frontier with Israel, allowing pictures to be taken of soldiers posing with weapons and staring across the border.
Israel runs patrols along the same frontier, sends up drones and is constantly bolstering its defenses. In March, Israeli minister Naftali Bennett, a hard-liner, threatened to send Lebanon back to the Middle Ages if Hezbollah provoked another war.
An official in the military alliance that backs Assad said Israel’s recent air strikes had hit Hezbollah targets but played down the damage done. As for retaliation, they drew a distinction between Israel striking Hezbollah units deployed to fight on behalf of Assad in Syria and those at home in Lebanon.
“If Israel hits a Hezbollah convoy in Syria, Hezbollah will decide if it will respond or not according to the circumstances in Syria because, despite everything, Syria is a sovereign state and Hezbollah cannot respond in a way that embarrasses the regime,” the official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
“If Israel strikes Hezbollah in Lebanon, definitely it will respond. If Hezbollah responds, what is the size of its response that Israel can accept? This could mean an escalation to war. So Israel avoids hitting Hezbollah convoys or rockets inside Lebanon and prefers to strike it inside Syria.”
That analysis fits with how Israel broadly sees the situation, too. Keeping any fallout from the war in Syria away from its territorial interests is one thing. But going after Hezbollah in Lebanon would be the trigger for renewed conflict.
“A clash with Hezbollah is always an active possibility,” said one Israeli diplomat.
While the enmity is fierce on either side, past experience seems to have made both Hezbollah and Israel sharp analysts of one another’s positions and pressure points.
“Sometimes there is a measured response which maintains the balance of deterrence and the rules of the game and sometimes there is a response which opens the door to escalation,” said the official from the alliance backing Assad.
“Right now, the desire of both sides is to not get dragged into a war or to open a new front, either in Golan or the south. But at any moment events can develop and things can escalate into war without either side wanting it.”
Russia-Israel axis
Russia — an ally of Hezbollah in the Syrian conflict but which has also coordinated closely with Israel — has also taken note of Israel’s actions.
For the past two years, Israel and Russia have coordinated closely on Syria, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meeting face-to-face with Russian President Vladimir Putin and often speaking by phone to ensure there are no misunderstandings and that the risk of aerial confrontations is minimized.
For the most part, the system has worked, even if it requires Israel to be delicate in balancing ties with the United States and Russia at the same time. But the most recent incidents appear to have angered Moscow.
After the March strike, Russia summoned Israel’s ambassador for consultations, and after the Damascus airport attack the foreign ministry issued a statement calling it unacceptable and urging Israel to exercise restraint.
“We consider that all countries should avoid any actions that lead to higher tensions in such a troubled region and call for Syrian sovereignty to be respected,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
A new war between Israel and Hezbollah could distract the Shiite movement from its central role in the Syrian conflict, thereby undermining a military campaign in which Russia has staked great resources and prestige.
Israeli analysts think Netanyahu’s government must exercise caution. “Israel still has to walk on eggshells and attack only if the destruction of the target is vital and pertains directly to Israeli security,” military specialist Alex Fishman wrote in Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper last week.
Israeli ministers, several of whom have a Russian background, also appear determined to avoid provoking Moscow. “We’ll do nothing fast and loose when it comes to the Russians,” said the Israeli diplomat. “We’ll be super-careful in Syria.”
Israeli strikes raise stakes in face-off with Hezbollah
Israeli strikes raise stakes in face-off with Hezbollah
Qatari minister of state, IAEA chief discuss ‘serious threat’ of Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites
- Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi reiterates Qatar’s condemnation of attacks on Iranian territory
- He said targeting nuclear facilities threatens regional, international security
LONDON: The Qatari Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi on Tuesday discussed the conflict between Israel and Iran with Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Al-Khulaifi discussed in a call the Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities that began on Friday, targeting the Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan nuclear sites.
Al-Khulaifi stressed that targeting nuclear facilities was a serious threat to regional and international security. He reaffirmed Qatar’s commitment to dialogue to resolve conflicts and achieve peace in the region.
The officials discussed ways to improve the security of nuclear facilities and ensure they are safeguarded against threats, the Qatar News Agency reported.
Al-Khulaifi reiterated Qatar’s strong condemnation of the Israeli attacks on Iranian territory, deeming them blatant violations of Iran’s sovereignty and security, the QNA added.
The IAEA reported on Monday that the Israeli airstrike on Iran’s Natanz facility on Friday damaged the centrifuges of the underground uranium enrichment plant, raising concerns about potential radiological and chemical contamination in the area.
Regional war puts Palestinian disarmament in Lebanese camps on hold
- Dimashkieh affirmed that “the dialogue committee is fully committed to the joint statement issued by the Lebanese and Palestinian presidents”
- Palestinian sources told Arab News that significant resistance has emerged within Palestinian ranks over Abbas’s quick acceptance of disarmament deadlines
BEIRUT: A Palestinian official in Lebanon announced “the postponement of the scheduled collection of weapons from Palestinian refugee camps due to the current situation in the region.”
The announcement came just hours before the Lebanese government was set to begin disarming Palestinian refugee camps in Beirut and its suburbs this week.
Citing a Lebanese official familiar with Palestinian affairs in Lebanon, Palestinian news agency WAFA stated that “Palestine renewed its commitment to the joint statement issued on May 21 following the meeting held between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and President Mahmoud Abbas in Beirut.”
He added that the statement emphasized “Lebanon’s sovereignty, the extension of state authority, and the exclusive right of the Lebanese state to bear arms, as well as the need to end any manifestations outside its authority.
“Palestinian security and military bodies will begin full cooperation with the Lebanese security forces as agreed upon when conditions permit and after the necessary preparations are completed,” the official said.
On the Lebanese side, the only statement issued in this regard was by Ramez Dimashkieh, head of the Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee, who said that “he received a call from Azzam Al-Ahmad, secretary-general of the Palestine Liberation Organization, during which they discussed the latest developments.”
Dimashkieh affirmed that “the dialogue committee is fully committed to the joint statement issued by the Lebanese and Palestinian presidents, which clearly emphasized respect for Lebanese sovereignty, the principle of exclusive state control over weapons, and the necessity of ending the visible presence of Palestinian arms, according to a specific timeline.”
Youssef Al-Zari’i, Fatah’s media representative in Sidon, confirmed that Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Islamic movements, all expressed willingness to hand over weapons and allow Lebanese authority throughout the country.
However, he argued that delays are “reasonable given the delicate regional situation,” with implementation tied to evolving Middle Eastern dynamics.
Palestinian sources told Arab News that significant resistance has emerged within Palestinian ranks over Abbas’s quick acceptance of disarmament deadlines. “Multiple Palestinian factions, particularly within Fatah, are uncomfortable with Abbas’s hasty agreement to weapon collection schedules,” one insider said.
Beyond regional timing issues, fundamental questions about execution mechanisms remain unresolved.
“Fatah claims it holds limited heavy weapons in Lebanese camps compared to other groups, especially Hamas,” a source said.
Since Fatah’s weapons belong to the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority and operate under Lebanese oversight, unilateral disarmament could create dangerous imbalances.
“If Fatah surrenders its arsenal while Hamas and affiliated groups retain theirs, Fatah becomes vulnerable within camp dynamics,” the source warned.
Hamas continues defending its Lebanese weapons as legitimate resistance tools while deflecting surrender demands through broader political arguments. The group links disarmament to comprehensive refugee solutions, including return rights and enhanced social protections for displaced populations in Lebanon.
Palestinian camps across Lebanon emphasize that sustainable solutions must address living standards, legal rights including property ownership, while maintaining respect for Lebanese sovereignty and law.
The Lebanese and Palestinian presidents announced in a joint statement issued following their meeting a few weeks ago “the formation of joint committees to address the issue of Palestinian weapons in refugee camps and to monitor the situation in the Palestinian camps.”
They affirmed their commitment to the principle of placing all weapons under Lebanese state control.
According to a joint Lebanese-Palestinian census conducted in 2017, the number of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon is estimated at around 200,000. Many live in harsh conditions within camps overseen by Palestinian factions and forces, which consider the possession of arms as integral to both the right of return and the broader struggle for the liberation of Palestine.
Lebanon is home to 12 official Palestinian refugee camps, along with dozens of other communities dispersed across the country.
The presence of weapons in Palestinian camps in Lebanon dates back to the 1969 Cairo Agreement between the PLO and the Lebanese government.
The agreement stipulated that Palestinians were permitted to establish military bases in southern Lebanon and conduct political activities within the camps, effectively legitimizing armed Palestinian presence on Lebanese soil and in camps.
However, following a civil war in which Palestinian weapons played a dominant role, Lebanon officially annulled the agreement in 1987.
Weapons are distributed unevenly among the camps. Heavy weapons are found in the Ain Al-Hilweh camp, the most overcrowded camp and home to the various politically and militarily diverse factions, and in the Rashidieh camp in the Tyre region.
This is in contrast to the Nahr Al-Bared camp in the north, which is completely devoid of weapons. It has been under the control of the Lebanese Army since 2007, following violent battles that lasted for more than three months between the Lebanese Army and Fatah Al-Islam, which launched attacks against the military that killed dozens.
The disarmament process was scheduled to begin this week in the Shatila, Mar Elias, and Burj Al-Barajneh camps in Beirut and its southern suburbs.
“A committee was supposed to be formed to oversee implementation. There were discussions about assigning this role to the Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee, which was seen by some as the appropriate authority. However, others dismissed it as a political body unrelated to the issue. This raised further questions: Who would assume responsibility for internal Palestinian affairs once weapons were handed over? Who would manage security inside the camps? And who would handle the cases of wanted individuals and those who had taken refuge there?” a Palestinian source stated.
In recent months, the Lebanese Army has confiscated weapons from Palestinian military sites supported by the Syrian regime and located in the Bekaa Valley on the border with Syria. The most important of these was a base in Qusaya belonging to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, General Command and Fatah Al-Intifada, confiscating their equipment and ammunition.
Before the outbreak of the Nahr Al-Bared camp battles, Lebanese political leaders had agreed during national dialogue talks to disarm Palestinians outside the camps within six months.
This commitment was later echoed in the 2008 Doha Agreement, which outlined a national defense strategy that included addressing Palestinian arms both inside and outside the camps.
However, these decisions were never implemented. In the years that followed, Ain Al-Hilweh, the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, repeatedly witnessed violent clashes among rival Palestinian factions.
Israel closes Al-Aqsa Mosque, Church of the Holy Sepulchre under ‘emergency’ measures
- Most shops in Jerusalem’s Old City have been closed, with only essential stores remaining open since Friday
- Palestinians in Jerusalem fear for their safety due to lack of proper shelters amid Israel-Iran conflict
LONDON: Israeli authorities in occupied East Jerusalem have imposed a closure for the fifth consecutive day on the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Church of the Holy Sepulchre while barring non-resident visitors from entering the Old City.
Israel announced a state of emergency after beginning airstrikes against Iran on Friday. Tehran retaliated by launching ballistic missiles at Israeli coastal towns and cities. Israel’s emergency measures prevented Palestinians and worshipers from entering the Al-Aqsa Mosque and its courtyards, as well as the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.
The Palestinian Authority’s Jerusalem Governorate added on Tuesday that most shops in the Old City had been closed, with only essential stores remaining open since Friday, Wafa news agency reported.
Israeli authorities have permitted settlers to visit the area surrounding the Al-Aqsa compound and perform Jewish prayers and rituals, while forces have intensified daily raids on Palestinian towns and suburbs in Jerusalem, including the Mount of Olives, Silwan, Issawiya, Shufaat, Hizma, Eizariya, Bir Nabala and Al-Ram, Wafa added. East Jerusalem is surrounded by 84 checkpoints and barriers, including recently installed earth mounds and gates.
Although Jerusalem has been spared so far from the Israel-Iran conflict, Palestinians in the city fear for their safety due to a lack of proper shelters within their towns and neighborhoods, Wafa reported.
Israeli authorities in Jerusalem have announced the opening of schools to be used as shelters from Iranian missile attacks. However, some Palestinian experts warned that the facilities may not be large enough to accommodate a significant number of residents, and some are even unsuitable for receiving civilians.
WHO says Gaza health care at breaking point as fuel runs out
- “For over 100 days, no fuel has entered Gaza and attempts to retrieve stocks from evacuation zones have been denied,” said Peeperkorn
- Peeperkorn said only 17 of Gaza’s 36 hospitals were currently minimally to partially functional
GENEVA: The World Health Organization on Tuesday pleaded for fuel to be allowed into Gaza to keep its remaining hospitals running, warning the Palestinian territory’s health system was at “breaking point.”
“For over 100 days, no fuel has entered Gaza and attempts to retrieve stocks from evacuation zones have been denied,” said Rik Peeperkorn, the WHO’s representative in the Palestinian territories.
“Combined with critical supply shortages, this is pushing the health system closer to the brink of collapse.”
Peeperkorn said only 17 of Gaza’s 36 hospitals were currently minimally to partially functional. They have a total of around 1,500 beds — around 45 percent fewer than before the conflict began.
He said all hospitals and primary health centers in north Gaza were currently out of service.
In Rafah in southern Gaza, health services are provided through the Red Cross field hospital and two partially-functioning medical points.
Speaking from Jerusalem, he said the 17 partially functioning hospitals and seven field hospitals were barely running on a minimum amount of daily fuel and “will soon have none left.”
“Without fuel, all levels of care will cease, leading to more preventable deaths and suffering.”
Hospitals were already switching between generators and batteries to power ventilators, dialysis machines and incubators, he said, and without fuel, ambulances cannot run and supplies cannot be delivered to hospitals.
Furthermore, field hospitals are entirely reliant on generators, and without electricity, the cold chain for keeping vaccines would fail.
The war was triggered by an unprecedented Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which resulted in the deaths of 1,219 people, according to official Israeli figures.
The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said on Monday that 5,194 people have been killed since Israel resumed strikes on the territory on March 18 following a truce.
The overall death toll in Gaza since the war broke out on October 7, 2023 has reached 55,493 people, according to the health ministry.
“People often ask when Gaza is going to be out of fuel; Gaza is already out of fuel,” said WHO trauma surgeon and emergency officer Thanos Gargavanis, speaking from the Strip.
“We are walking already the fine line that separates disaster from saving lives. The shrinking humanitarian space makes every health activity way more difficult than the previous day.”
How Israel used spies, smuggled drones and AI to stun and hobble Iran
- The Mossad and the military worked together for at least three years to lay the operational groundwork, according to a former intelligence officer who said he had knowledge of the attack
JERUSALEM: Israel stunned and hobbled Iran last week when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision.
Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems. With greater freedom to fly over Iran, Israel bombarded key nuclear sites and killed top generals and scientists. By the time Iran mustered a response hours later, its ability to retaliate — already weakened by past Israeli strikes — was greatly diminished.
This account is based on conversations with 10 current and former Israeli intelligence and military officials, some of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss clandestine operations.
It was not possible to independently verify some of their claims. But the former head of research at Israel’s spy agency, the Mossad, confirmed the basic contours of the attack, saying she had inside knowledge of how it was planned and executed.
“This attack is the culmination of years of work by the Mossad to target Iran’s nuclear program,” said Sima Shine, the former Mossad research director who is now an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies.
Israel’s element of surprise was enhanced by Iranian officials’ apparent assumption that Israel wouldn’t attack while talks over its rapidly advancing nuclear program were ongoing with the US
A sixth round of talks had been planned for last Sunday in Oman, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu activated “Operation Rising Lion” on Friday – after his country first notified President Donald Trump.
Netanyahu has for years said neutralizing Iran’s nuclear program was vital for Israel’s security, and Israel had previously taken steps to set back Iran’s ability to enrich uranium to weapons grade. But Netanyahu said a more aggressive attack proved necessary, as Iran kept advancing its enrichment program despite US diplomatic efforts and warnings from UN watchdogs.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini has repeatedly called for Israel’s destruction. Iran’s political leaders say their nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, though it was the only country without the bomb to enrich uranium close to weapons-grade levels.
Smuggling drones into Iran
The Mossad and the military worked together for at least three years to lay the operational groundwork, according to a former intelligence officer who said he had knowledge of the attack. This person spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the subject.
The attack built off knowledge Israel gained during a wave of airstrikes last October, which “highlighted the weakness of Iranian air defenses,” said Naysan Rafati, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.
To further diminish Iranian air defenses and missile systems at the start of last week’s attack, Mossad agents had smuggled precision weapons into Iran that were prepositioned to strike from close range, according to two current security officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the missions. Those weapons included small, armed drones, which agents snuck into the country in vehicles, according to the former intelligence officer.
Mossad agents stationed weapons close to Iranian surface-to-air missile sites, Shine said. The agency works with a mix of people, both locals and Israelis, she said.
Using AI and human intelligence to select targets
To analyze information gathered from various sources, Israel used the latest artificial-intelligence, or AI, technology, said an intelligence officer involved with selecting individuals and sites to target. He said AI was used to help Israelis quickly sift through troves of data they had obtained. That effort began last October according to the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media; it was one month before Netanyahu said he had ordered the attack plans.
An investigation by The Associated Press earlier this year uncovered that the Israeli military uses US-made AI models in war to sift through intelligence and intercept communications to learn the movements of its enemies. It’s been used in the wars with Hamas in Gaza and with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The intelligence officer involved in identifying the possible targets said options were first put into various groups, such as leadership, military, civilian and infrastructure. Targets were chosen if they were determined to be a threat to Israel, such as being deeply associated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard — a paramilitary force that controls Iran’s ballistic missiles.
The officer was tasked with putting together a list of Iranian generals, including details on where they worked and spent their free time.
Among the high-level military officials killed since Friday’s attack were Gen. Hossein Salami, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and Gen. Mohammed Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces.
In addition to AI, the Mossad relied on spies to identify top nuclear scientists and members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, according to one security official. At least eight members of the Guard, including the head of its missile program, were killed in a single Israeli strike on an underground bunker.
Targeting Iranian vehicles
Another facet of the attack was to strike Iranian vehicles used to transport and launch missiles.
Shine said the strategy was similar to a Ukrainian operation earlier this month in Russia. In that operation, nearly a third of Moscow’s strategic bomber fleet was destroyed or damaged with cheaply made drones snuck into Russian territory, according to Ukrainian officials.
In an interview with Iranian state-run television, the country’s police chief, Gen. Ahmadreza Radan, said “several vehicles carrying mini-drones and some tactical drones have been discovered.” He added: “a number of traitors are trying to engage the country’s air defense by flying some mini-drones.”
How far back does this go?
The Mossad is believed to have carried out numerous covert attacks on the Iranian nuclear program over the years, including cyberattacks and the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists. But it rarely acknowledges such operations.
In the 2000s, Iranian centrifuges used for enriching uranium were destroyed by the so-called Stuxnet computer virus, believed to be an Israeli and American creation.
In 2018, Israel stole an archive of Iranian nuclear research that included tens of thousands of pages of records, said Yossi Kuperwasser, a retired general and former military intelligence researcher who now directs the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
In July 2024, Israel killed a senior leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, with a bomb in a bedroom of a government guesthouse in Tehran.
Israel’s blistering attack last week on the heart of Iran’s nuclear and military structure didn’t come out of nowhere, said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who heads the Israel Defense and Security Forum think tank.
It was the result of “Israeli intelligence working extensively for years in Iran and establishing a very strong robust presence,” he said.
