WASHINGTON: Earth is likely to hit more dangerous levels of warming even sooner if the US pulls back from its pledge to cut carbon dioxide pollution, scientists said. That is because America contributes so much to rising temperatures.
US President Donald Trump, who once proclaimed global warming a Chinese hoax, will soon decide whether the US stays in or leaves a 2015 Paris climate change accord in which nearly every nation agreed to curb its greenhouse gas emissions.
Other global leaders have been urging him to stay during high level security and economic meetings in Italy that began Friday. Pope Francis already made the case with a gift of his papal encyclical on the environment when Trump visited the Vatican earlier this week.
In an attempt to understand what could happen to the planet if the US pulls out of Paris, The Associated Press consulted with more than two dozen climate scientists and analyzed a special computer model scenario designed to calculate potential effects.
Scientists said it would worsen an already bad problem, and make it far more difficult to prevent crossing a dangerous global temperature threshold.
Calculations suggest it could result in emissions of up to 3 billion tons of additional carbon dioxide in the air a year. When it adds up year after year, scientists said that is enough to melt ice sheets faster, raise seas higher and trigger more extreme weather.
“If we lag, the noose tightens,” said Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer, co-editor of the peer-reviewed journal Climatic Change.
One expert group ran a worst-case computer simulation of what would happen if the US does not curb emissions, but other nations do meet their targets. It found that America would add as much as half a degree of warming (0.3 degrees Celsius) to the globe by the end of century.
Scientists are split on how reasonable and likely that scenario is.
Many said because of cheap natural gas that displaces coal and growing adoption of renewable energy sources, it is unlikely that the US would stop reducing its carbon pollution even if it abandoned the accord, so the effect would likely be smaller.
But others say it could be worse because other countries might follow a US exit, leading to more emissions from both the US and the rest.
Another computer simulation team put the effect of the US pulling out somewhere between 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius.
While scientists may disagree on the computer simulations they overwhelmingly agreed that the warming the planet is undergoing now would be faster and more intense.
The world without US efforts would have a far more difficult time avoiding a dangerous threshold: keeping the planet from warming more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The world has already warmed by just over half that amount — with about one-fifth of the past heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions coming from the US, usually from the burning of coal, oil and gas.
So the efforts are really about preventing another 0.9 degrees Celsius from now.
“Developed nations — particularly the US and Europe — are responsible for the lion’s share of past emissions, with China now playing a major role,” said Rutgers University climate scientist Jennifer Francis. “This means Americans have caused a large fraction of the warming.”
Even with the US doing what it promised under the Paris agreement, the world is likely to pass that 2 degree mark, many scientists said.
But the fractions of additional degrees that the US would contribute could mean passing the threshold faster, which could in turn mean “ecosystems being out of whack with the climate, trouble farming current crops and increasing shortages of food and water,” said National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Kevin Trenberth.
Climate Interactive, a team of scientists and computer modelers who track global emissions and pledges, simulated global emissions if every country but the US reaches their individualized goals to curb carbon pollution. And then they calculated what that would mean in global temperature, sea level rise and ocean acidification using scientifically-accepted computer models.
By the year 2030, it would mean an extra 3 billion tons of carbon dioxide in the air a year, according to the Climate Interactive models, and by the end of the century 0.3 degrees Celsius of warming.
“The US matters a great deal,” said Climate Interactive co-director Andrew Jones. “That amount could make the difference between meeting the Paris limit of two degrees and missing it.”
Climate Action Tracker, a competing computer simulation team, put the effect of the US pulling out somewhere between 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius by 2100. It uses a scenario where US emissions flatten through the century, while Climate Interactive has them rising.
One of the few scientists who downplay the harm of the US possibly leaving the agreement is John Schellnhuber, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the scientist credited with coming up with the 2 degree goal.
“Ten years ago (a US exit) would have shocked the planet,” Schellnhuber said. “Today if the US really chooses to leave the Paris agreement, the world will move on with building a clean and secure future.”
Not so, said Texas Tech climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe: “There will be ripple effects from the United States’ choices across the world.”
What happens to Earth if the US exits the climate deal?
What happens to Earth if the US exits the climate deal?
Bride, groom, spy: India’s wedding detectives
- As more Indian marry for love, families engage sleuths with high-tech spy tools to investigate prospective partners
- Some families want background checks while partners after marriage use spies to confirm a suspected affair
NEW DELHI: From an anonymous office in a New Delhi mall, matrimonial detective Bhavna Paliwal runs the rule over prospective husbands and wives — a booming industry in India, where younger generations are increasingly choosing love matches over arranged marriage.
The tradition of partners being carefully selected by the two families remains hugely popular, but in a country where social customs are changing rapidly, more and more couples are making their own matches.
So for some families, the first step when young lovers want to get married is not to call a priest or party planner but a sleuth like Paliwal with high-tech spy tools to investigate the prospective partner.
Sheela, an office worker in New Delhi, said that when her daughter announced she wanted to marry her boyfriend, she immediately hired Paliwal.
“I had a bad marriage,” said Sheela, whose name has been changed as her daughter remains unaware her fiance was spied on.
“When my daughter said she’s in love, I wanted to support her — but not without proper checks.”
Paliwal, 48, who founded her Tejas Detective Agency more than two decades ago, says business is better than ever.
Her team handles around eight cases monthly.
In one recent case — a client checking her prospective husband — Paliwal discovered a decimal point salary discrepancy.
“The man said he earns around $70,700 annually,” Paliwal said. “We found out he was actually making $7,070.”
It is discreet work. Paliwal’s office is tucked away in a city mall, with an innocuous sign board saying it houses an astrologer — a service families often use to predict an auspicious wedding date.
“Sometimes my clients also don’t want people to know they are meeting a detective,” she laughed.
Hiring a detective can cost from $100 to $2,000, depending on the extent of surveillance needed.
That is a small investment for families who splash out many times more on the wedding itself.
It is not just worried parents trying to vet their prospective sons or daughters-in-law.
Some want background checks on their future spouse — or, after marriage, to confirm a suspected affair.
“It is a service to society,” said Sanjay Singh, a 51-year-old sleuth, who says his agency has handled “hundreds” of pre-matrimonial investigations this year alone.
Private eye Akriti Khatri said around a quarter of cases at her Venus Detective Agency were pre-marriage checks.
“There are people who want to know if the groom is actually gay,” she said, citing one example.
Arranged marriages binding two entire families together require a chain of checks before the couple even talk.
That includes financial probes and, crucially, their status in India’s millennia-old caste hierarchy.
Marriages breaking rigid caste or religious divisions can have deadly repercussions, sometimes resulting in so-called “honor” killings.
In the past, such premarital checks were often done by family members, priests or professional matchmakers.
But breakneck urbanization in sprawling megacities has shaken social networks, challenging conventional ways of verifying marriage proposals.
Arranged marriages now also happen online through matchmaking websites, or even dating apps.
“Marriage proposals come on Tinder too,” added Singh.
The job is not without its challenges.
Layers of security in guarded modern apartment blocks mean it is often far harder for an agent to gain access to a property than older standalone homes.
Singh said detectives had to rely on their charm to tell a “cock and bull story” to enter, saying his teams tread the grey zone between “legal and illegal.”
But he stressed his agents operate on the right side of the law, ordering his teams to do “nothing unethical” while noting investigations often mean “somebody’s life is getting ruined.”
Technology is on the side of the sleuths.
Khatri has used tech developers to create an app for her agents to upload records directly online — leaving nothing on agents’ phones, in case they are caught.
“This is safer for our team,” she said, adding it also helped them “get sharp results in less time and cost.”
Surveillance tools starting at only a few dollars are readily available.
Those include audio and video recording devices hidden in everyday items such as mosquito repellent socket devices, to more sophisticated magnetic GPS car trackers or tiny wearable cameras.
The technology boom, Paliwal said, has put relationships under pressure.
“The more hi-tech we become, the more problems we have in our lives,” she said.
But she insisted that neither the technology nor the detectives should take the blame for exposing a cheat.
“Such relationships would not have lasted anyway,” she said. “No relationship can work on the basis of lies.”
Ousted Bangladesh PM Hasina’s son denies graft in $12.65 billion nuclear deal
- Bangladesh’s Anti Corruption Commission has launched corruption inquiry into Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant project, backed by Russia’s state-owned Rosatom
- Rosatom, world’s largest supplier of enriched uranium, refuted the allegations, adding that it was committed to combat corruption in all its projects
NEW DELHI: Ousted Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s son and adviser on Tuesday described allegations of corruption involving the family in the 2015 awarding of a $12.65 billion nuclear power contract as “completely bogus” and a “smear campaign.”
Bangladesh’s Anti Corruption Commission said on Monday it had launched an enquiry into allegations of corruption, embezzlement and money laundering in the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant project, backed by Russia’s state-owned Rosatom.
A deal for two power plants, each with a capacity of 1,200 megawatts, was signed in 2015.
The commission has alleged that there were financial irregularities worth about $5 billion involving Hasina, her son Sajeeb Wazed and her niece and British treasury minister Tulip Siddiq, through offshore accounts.
Rosatom, the world’s largest supplier of enriched uranium, refuted the allegations, adding that it was committed to combat corruption in all its projects and that it maintains a transparent procurement system.
“Rosatom State Corporation is ready to defend its interests and reputation in court,” it said in an emailed statement to Reuters.
“We consider false statements in the media as an attempt to discredit the Rooppur NPP project, which is being implemented to solve the country’s energy supply problems and is aimed at improving the well-being of the people of Bangladesh.”
Siddiq did not respond to a request for comment.
A spokesperson for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Siddiq had denied any involvement in the claims and that he had confidence in her. Siddiq would continue in her role, the spokesperson added.
Wazed, speaking on behalf of the family, said they were the targets of a political witch hunt in Bangladesh.
“These are completely bogus allegations and a smear campaign. My family nor I have ever been involved or taken any money from any government projects,” he told Reuters from Washington, where he lives.
“It is not possible to siphon off billions from a $10 billion project. We also don’t have any offshore accounts. I have been living in the US for 30 years, my aunt and cousins in the UK for a similar amount of time. We obviously have accounts here, but none of us have ever seen that kind of money.”
Reuters could not contact Hasina, who has not been seen in public since fleeing to New Delhi in early August following a deadly uprising against her in Bangladesh. Since then, an interim government has been running the country.
The government in Dhaka said on Monday it had asked India to send Hasina back. New Delhi has confirmed the request but declined further comment.
Wazeb said the family had not made a decision on Hasina’s return to Bangladesh and that New Delhi had not asked her to seek asylum elsewhere.
Cancer-hit UK king hails doctors in Christmas speech
- “We cannot help but think of those for whom the devastating effects of conflict in the Middle East … pose a daily threat to so many people’s lives,” king said
LONDON: King Charles III thanked “selfless doctors and nurses” for supporting the royal family in his Christmas address, marking the end of a year during which he and Princess Catherine have battled cancer.
Speaking in a pre-recorded message from a former hospital chapel, the king paid tribute to medical staff, veterans and humanitarian workers, and touched upon topics ranging from global conflicts to the far-right riots in the UK this summer.
The monarch’s traditional Christmas message, the first in nearly two decades made outside a royal residence, was symbolically filmed in the ornate Fitzrovia Chapel in central London.
“I offer special heartfelt thanks to the selfless doctors and nurses who this year have supported me and other members of my family through the uncertainties and anxieties of illness, and have helped provide the strength, care and comfort we have needed,” Charles, 76, said.
“I am deeply grateful too to all those who have offered us their own kind words of sympathy and encouragement,” the king added.
His daughter-in-law Princess Catherine was also diagnosed with cancer just weeks after him, temporarily removing the two senior royals from frontline duties.
They have gradually resumed engagements, with Kate, as she is widely known, announcing she had completed chemotherapy in September. Charles is still undergoing regular treatment for cancer, expected to continue into 2025.
Charles, who became monarch in 2022 after the death of his mother Queen Elizabeth II, also hailed the country’s response to divisive far-right riots that took place across England in August and September following the fatal stabbing of three young girls.
“I felt a deep sense of pride here in the United Kingdom when in response to anger and lawlessness in several towns this summer, communities came together not to repeat these behaviors, but to repair,” Charles said.
Calling for peace, the king reflected on conflicts across the world in a year which also marked the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings.
“During previous (D-Day) commemorations, we were able to console ourselves with the thoughts that these tragic events seldom happen in the modern era,” said Charles.
“But on this Christmas Day, we cannot help but think of those for whom the devastating effects of conflict in the Middle East, in Central Europe, in Africa and elsewhere, pose a daily threat to so many people’s lives and livelihoods.”
Charles praised the “diversity of culture, ethnicity and faith” in Commonwealth countries, after attending a summit in Samoa in October.
“Across the Commonwealth, we are held together by a willingness to listen to each other,” Charles added, as the bloc increasingly confronts the legacy of slavery and colonialism under the former empire.
The eco-conscious king notably did not address climate change or environmental concerns this time around, in a shift from last year’s address.
However, in the backdrop of the broadcast was a live Christmas tree that was later donated and replanted, a tradition begun by Charles in 2023.
The king ended the speech with a call for “peace on earth.”
“And so it is with this in mind that I wish you and all those you love a most joyful and peaceful Christmas,” he concluded.
In keeping with tradition, Charles and his wife Queen Camilla, 77, were joined by other senior royals for their annual festive gathering at the family’s Sandringham estate in eastern England.
Heir-to-the-throne Prince William and Kate along with their three children were part of the royal entourage attending a morning church service followed by Christmas lunch.
Disgraced Prince Andrew, however, was missing from the festivities after revelations of his dealings with a suspected Chinese spy emerged just weeks earlier.
The king’s younger brother was present at last year’s gathering despite being shunned from royal life over his ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
Also missing were Prince Harry and his wife Meghan — who quit royal life in 2020 and moved to California — making it the sixth royal Christmas they have missed in a row.
Kashmir’s ‘bee queen’ sets out to empower women, inspire youth
- Sania Zehra manages about 600 bee colonies, sells products across India
- She created an empowerment group to help aspiring women entrepreneurs
NEW DELHI: For the past four years, beekeeping has become central to Sania Zehra’s life. Every morning, she wakes at about 6 a.m. to tend to her colonies, before spending the rest of the day building the enterprise that turned her into the “bee queen” of Kashmir.
Her beekeeping journey began as a 16-year-old, watching her father hard at work at the family farm in Balhama in Indian-controlled Kashmir.
“I first saw my grandfather working with the bees, and then I saw my father doing the same business. When I saw my father working hard, I decided to also contribute and support him,” Zehra told Arab News.
She overcame her initial fear of bee stings and got to work immediately, applying for a government scheme that allowed her to expand the business.
It was not always smooth sailing — she struggled to make a profit in the first couple of years and had to juggle maintaining the hectic routine of beekeeping and selling her products.
But as her hard work of managing hundreds of colonies garnered her the “bee queen” title, today her products are being sold across the country.
“I am selling my product across India (and) I am getting orders from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Dubai, South Africa, Qatar and all,” Zehra said.
Beekeeping is a multi-pronged passion for the 20-year-old, who sees it as a way to protect the environment and preserve her family legacy.
She joins an increasing number of women in Kashmir who are running their own businesses, many of whom access government programs aimed at training and supporting women entrepreneurs.
Despite the social barriers that persist to this day, Zehra found support from her family, especially her mother.
“My mother supports me wholeheartedly. She says ‘I have sons but you have gone ahead of the boys and there is nothing that can stop a woman if she wants to,’” she said.
“For me, it’s a passion as well as a desire to carry the family legacy … I have been fascinated by bees’ social structure and the importance of bees in our ecosystem. I want to contribute to their conversation and produce natural honey and connect with nature. They are an inspiration for me.”
As time went by, she found that beekeeping was not only therapeutic for her mental health but also a way to support the entrepreneurial landscape in Kashmir.
To fuel that mission, Zehra created an empowerment group whose members comprise talented women who lack access to resources.
“My main focus is that I should act as a catalyst for many and help others to grow too,” she said.
With 40 members so far, Zehra is aiming to take it to 100 and help them gain access to the government initiatives that once helped her.
“I want to give employment to all,” Zehra said. “I have a future plan to address the unemployment issue in Kashmir and make Kashmir a wonderful place. I want to inspire young people.”
Pope calls for ‘arms to be silenced’ across world
- “I think of the Christian communities in Israel and Palestine, particularly in Gaza, where the humanitarian situation is extremely grave,” Pope Francis said
VATICAN: Pope Francis called Wednesday for “arms to be silenced” around the world in his Christmas address, appealing for peace in the Middle East, Ukraine and Sudan as he denounced the “extremely grave” humanitarian situation in Gaza.
He used his traditional “Urbi et Orbi” (“to the city and the world“) message to the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics to call for talks for a just peace in Ukraine as the country was pummelled by 170 Russian missiles and drones on Christmas morning.
“May the sound of arms be silenced in war-torn Ukraine,” the 88-year-old pontiff said, his voice strained and breathless. “May there be the boldness needed to open the door to negotiation and to gestures of dialogue and encounter, in order to achieve a just and lasting peace.”
In front of thousands of the faithful gathered in front of St. Peter’s Basilica in Rome, also appealed for a ceasefire in Gaza and for the freeing of Israeli hostages held there by Hamas.
“I think of the Christian communities in Israel and Palestine, particularly in Gaza, where the humanitarian situation is extremely grave. May there be a ceasefire, may the hostages be released and aid be given to the people worn out by hunger and by war,” he added.
Francis extended his call for a silencing of arms to the whole Middle East and to Sudan, which has been ravaged by a ravaged by 20 months of brutal civil war where millions are under the threat of famine.
“May the Son of the Most High sustain the efforts of the international community to facilitate access to humanitarian aid for the civilian population of Sudan and to initiate new negotiations for a ceasefire,” he said.
