BAGHDAD: Many Iraqi Kurds hailed last week’s announcement of a September referendum on independence as historic, but major obstacles will remain on the path to statehood after an expected landslide “yes.”
The autonomous region is still at war with the Daesh group, it hosts a displaced population of more than a million and its once promising economy has taken a double hit from conflict and low oil prices.
The northern region’s leader, Massud Barzani, announced on June 7 that a referendum would be held in Kurdish areas of Iraq on Sept. 25 to ask voters if they want a separate state.
The vote is non-binding, but sets the wheels in motion for an independent state that has been gestating since Iraq’s Kurds gained autonomy from Baghdad on the back of the 1991 Gulf War.
Hoshyar Zebari, former foreign minister of Iraq and a senior negotiator in Kurdistan’s independence process, described the decision as signifying that the Kurds had “crossed the Rubicon,” the point of no return.
Besides obvious security and economic challenges that need to be overcome for any viable state project, the other necessary conditions are internal unity and external assent.
Neither is guaranteed.
“The two biggest obstacles to Kurdistan’s independence are the question of its boundaries with Iraq and international recognition,” analyst Nathaniel Ribkin said.
“If no agreement is reached with Baghdad on borders, many countries will be reluctant to recognize a unilateral declaration of independence,” said Ribkin, managing editor of the Inside Iraqi Politics newsletter.
Iraqi Kurdistan’s most powerful neighbors Turkey and Iran, which have their own Kurdish minorities and support one of the autonomous region’s two main rival parties, have spoken against the referendum.
Tehran warned it could “only lead to new problems” while Turkey, through which Iraqi Kurdish oil is being exported, called the decision to organize the referendum “irresponsible” and a “grave mistake.”
Baghdad, much like the Kurdish region’s key US ally, has reacted relatively tamely by stressing the need to comply with the Constitution and reaffirming its commitment to Iraq’s territorial integrity.
The official reactions are as predictable as the referendum itself, which the Kurdish administration had promised would be held after Mosul is retaken, but the more distant prospect of secession is already being discussed by all sides.
The federal government has already set up a committee to discuss the shape of relations between Baghdad and a future, independent Kurdistan.
Turkey has expressed strong displeasure at the date of the referendum but may ultimately not be completely hostile to Kurdish independence in Iraq if this can help it contain Kurdish separatism at home.
Washington also objected to the timing of the vote, but has repeatedly expressed its support for the principle of self-determination.
“Without ironclad US security guarantees, an independent Kurdistan is unlikely to survive,” Amberin Zaman, a fellow at the US-based Wilson Center, wrote in a recent paper on the issue.
Iraqi Kurdish leaders enjoy strong support in Congress and appear to be taking the bet that Washington will be pragmatic and endorse a fait accompli, as it did a quarter of a century ago when the Kurds used a US-enforced no-fly zone to start building their institutions.
But Iraq’s roughly 5 million Kurds do not all agree between themselves on the referendum, whose announcement prompted some suspicious reactions internally.
The region is in political limbo. Barzani’s mandate as regional president expired nearly two years ago and Parliament was suspended a few weeks later.
The administration run by the Barzani clan is struggling to pay salaries and faces strong opposition, including from two parties that argued that a referendum should come after parliamentary and presidential polls.
“The referendum could serve as a lifeboat for ruling Kurdish parties that have failed to govern effectively,” said Yerevan Saeed, an analyst and research associate at the DC-based Arab Gulf Institute.
“Unless there is a form of Kurdish unity, I don’t see any viable path toward Kurdish independence,” he said.
While both the internal and broader context seem far from propitious, the ideal moment may never come, and some argue that the prospect of independence might be what the Kurds need to overcome their current difficulties.
“It is up to their leaders to bury the hatchet and to ensure that this dream for which so many Kurds have laid down their lives is finally translated into reality,” Zaman said.
Journey to statehood still long for Iraq Kurds
Journey to statehood still long for Iraq Kurds
Israel assassinates Hezbollah media official
- Mohammed Afif killed in strike on Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party office in central Beirut, Lebanon
- Afif, founding member of Hezbollah, joined party in 1983, and has been media in-charge since 2014
BEIRUT: An Israeli strike on a building in central Beirut on Sunday killed Hezbollah’s media relations chief, Mohammad Afif.
It was later announced that Mahmoud Al-Sharqawi, who was assisting Afif, was also killed at the headquarters of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party in Ras Al-Nabaa, a neighborhood of Beirut.
This is the first time this area has been attacked since Israel began operations in the country.
It is densely populated with residents and displaced people from the south, and Beirut’s southern suburbs who have taken refuge there.
The strike also wounded three others, the Health Ministry said in a preliminary count.
Paramedics at the scene of the attack told Arab News about “seeing more blood under the rubble, which is being cleared to determine the fate of those who were inside the building.”
The targeted center has belonged to the Ba’ath Party for decades.
Its Secretary-General Ali Hijazi said he was not in the building at the time of the airstrike, and did not explain why Afif was holding a meeting in the Ba’ath Party building.
Information circulated at the site of the attack that a group from Hezbollah’s media relations department was in the building when it was targeted, raising fears that three people accompanying Afif and who are missing might also have been killed.
On Oct. 22 and Nov. 11, Afif held two press conferences in the open air in the southern suburb of Beirut to present Hezbollah’s positions on developments under the watchful eye of Israeli reconnaissance planes, which are constantly flying over the southern suburb.
Afif was a founding member of Hezbollah, joining the party in 1983, and has been in charge of its media since 2014.
He managed Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets such as Al-Manar TV, Al-Nour radio station, and Al-Ahed news website.
Several residents of the targeted area said they received calls warning them to evacuate their homes immediately beforehand.
A 50-year-old woman said: “I just left the house without taking anything with me. It is a real terror.”
The airstrike, which is suspected to have been launched by a drone, destroyed the upper floors of the five-story building, and damaged neighboring buildings on the narrow street.
Israeli army radio confirmed Mohammed Afif was the target of the strike.
It is the third time Beirut has been targeted since the Israeli military expanded its operations in Lebanon.
On Oct. 10, three airstrikes were directed at Wafiq Safa, the head of the liaison and coordination unit of Hezbollah, severely injuring him, as well as the destruction of two buildings in the neighborhoods of Basta and Nuwairi.
A week before, a Hezbollah ambulance center in Bachoura was attacked, leading to the deaths of six people and injuries to seven others.
On Sunday, residents of the Ain Al-Rummaneh area adjacent to the Chiyah district received evacuation warnings issued by Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee via X, accompanied by maps indicating locations to be targeted on the outskirts of Ain Al-Rummaneh, Haret Hreik, and Hadath.
Israeli warplanes subsequently demolished tall residential and commercial buildings in the area.
Our Lady of Salvation Church in Hadath was severely damaged, as were the surroundings of Mar Mikhael Church.
This was followed by a second wave of raids on residential buildings in Burj Al-Barajneh and Bir Al-Abed, and a third wave targeted more than one location in Haret Hreik and Sfeir.
The Israeli spokesperson claimed that the airstrikes “targeted military command centers and other terrorist infrastructures belonging to Hezbollah in the southern suburbs.”
The claim came as Israeli attacks targeting southern Lebanon continued.
The residents of 15 towns deep in the south were asked to evacuate their houses immediately and move north of the Awali River.
The Lebanese military said an Israeli attack on Sunday killed two soldiers, accusing Israel of directly targeting their position in southern Lebanon.
“The Israeli enemy directly targeted an army center” in Al-Mari in the Hasbaya area, causing “the death of one of the soldiers and the wounding of three others, one of whom is in critical condition,” the army said in a statement.
A separate statement shortly afterward said “a second soldier” had died of his wounds.
The Lebanese Army has lost 36 soldiers to Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon over the past year.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati paid tribute to the “martyrs of the army who gave their lives.”
He said: “We must all cooperate so their sacrifices do not go in vain by working first to stop the Israeli aggression on Lebanon and enable the army to carry out all the tasks required of it, to extend the authority of the state alone over all Lebanese territories.”
Mikati said he was hopeful that the ongoing talks would result in a ceasefire.
Also on Sunday, Israeli strikes targeted a house in Chabriha, Sidon District, causing injuries, with raids hitting Tefahta and Aanquoun as well.
In another incident, a person was killed and three injured at dawn in an air raid on the town of Jdeidet Marjayoun.
On Saturday night, a family of seven, including three children, were killed when their house in Arabsalim was targeted.
The displaced Al-Hattab family had moved to the north but was not able to adapt to the conditions of displacement and decided to go back to their home in Arabsalim days before it was hit.
Hezbollah said its confrontations with the Israeli army continued at the borders, especially in Shama.
Suspected attack by Yemen’s Houthi militia targets ship in the Red Sea
- A ship’s captain saw that “a missile splashed in close proximity to the vessel” as it traveled near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, UKMTO reports
- Fortunately, the vessel and crew were not hit in the attack, which happened some 48 kilometers west of Yemen port city of Mocha
DUBAI: A suspected attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels targeted a commercial ship late Sunday night traveling through the southern reaches of the Red Sea, though it caused no damage nor injuries, authorities said.
The attack comes as the rebels continue their monthslong assault targeting shipping through a waterway that typically sees $1 trillion in goods pass through it a year over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and Israel’s ground offensive in Lebanon.
A ship’s captain saw that “a missile splashed in close proximity to the vessel” as it traveled near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said in an alert. The attack happened some 30 miles (48 kilometers) west of Yemen port city of Mocha.
“The vessel and crew are safe and proceeding to its next port of call,” the UKMTO added.
The Houthis did not immediately claim the attack. However, it can take the rebels hours or even days to acknowledge their assaults.
The Houthis have targeted more than 90 merchant vessels with missiles and drones since the war in Gaza started in October 2023. They seized one vessel and sank two in the campaign, which also killed four sailors. Other missiles and drones have either been intercepted by a US-led coalition in the Red Sea or failed to reach their targets, which have included Western military vessels as well.
The militia maintain that they target ships linked to Israel, the US or the UK to force an end to Israel’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza. However, many of the ships attacked have little or no connection to the conflict, including some bound for Iran.
The Houthis have shot down multiple American MQ-9 Reaper drones as well.
In the Houthi's last attack on Nov. 11, two US Navy warships targeted with multiple drones and missiles as they were traveling through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, but the attacks were not successful.
Israeli court jails Palestinian WAFA journalist Rasha Herzallah for six months
- Herzallah detention extended five times before charge of “incitement on social media” was brought at Israeli Salem military court
LONDON: An Israeli military court sentenced on Sunday the Palestinian journalist Rasha Herzallah to six months in jail and issued a fine of 13,000 shekels ($3,300).
Herzallah, 39, was working for the official Palestine News and Information Agency (WAFA) at the time of her arrest last June, when she was summoned for an investigation at the Israeli Huwwara detention center north of the occupied West Bank.
Her detention was extended five times before a charge of “incitement on social media” was brought in court.
She is the sister of Muhammad Herzallah, who died from his wounds in November 2023 after being shot in the head by Israeli forces during a raid of Nablus city, WAFA reported.
Herzallah’s court hearing was held at the Israeli Salem military base near Jenin, her family told WAFA. She is expected to be released from prison on Dec. 1.
She is among 94 Palestinian journalists currently detained in Israeli jails since Oct. 7, 2023.
WAFA reported that four female journalists, including Herzallah, Rola Hassanin, Bushra Al-Tawil, and Amal Shujaiyah, a journalism student from Birzeit University, remain in Israeli detention.
Cultural experts urge UN to shield Lebanon’s heritage
- Lebanon’s cultural heritage at large is being endangered by recurrent assaults on ancient cities such as Baalbek, Tyre, and Anjar, all UNESCO world heritage sites, and other historic landmarks.
BEIRUT: Hundreds of cultural professionals, including archeologists and academics, called on the UN to safeguard war-torn Lebanon’s heritage in a petition published on Sunday before a crucial UNESCO meeting.
Several Israeli strikes in recent weeks on Baalbek in the east and Tyre in the south hit close to ancient Roman ruins designated as UNESCO World Heritage sites.
The petition, signed by 300 prominent cultural figures, was sent to UNESCO chief Audrey Azoulay a day before a special session in Paris to consider listing Lebanese cultural sites under “enhanced protection.”
It urges UNESCO to protect Baalbek and other heritage sites by establishing “no-target zones” around them, deploying international observers, and enforcing measures from the 1954 Hague Convention on cultural heritage in conflict.
“Lebanon’s cultural heritage at large is being endangered by recurrent assaults on ancient cities such as Baalbek, Tyre, and Anjar, all UNESCO world heritage sites, as well as other historic landmarks,” says the petition.
It calls on influential states to push for an end to military action that destroys or damages sites, as well as adding protections or introducing sanctions.
Change Lebanon, the charity behind the petition, said signatories included museum curators, academics, archeologists, and writers in Britain, France, Italy, and the US.
Enhanced protection status gives heritage sites “high-level immunity from military attacks,” according to UNESCO.
“Criminal prosecutions and sanctions, conducted by the competent authorities, may apply in cases where individuals do not respect the enhanced protection granted to a cultural property,” it said.
In Baalbek, Israeli strikes on Nov. 6 hit near the city’s Roman temples, according to authorities, destroying a heritage house dating back to the French mandate and damaging the historic site.
The region’s governor said “a missile fell in the car park” of a 1,000-year-old temple, the closest strike since the start of the war.
The ruins host the prestigious Baalbek Festival each year, a landmark event founded in 1956 and now a fixture on the international cultural scene, featuring performances by music legends like Oum Kalthoum, Charles Aznavour and Ella Fitzgerald.
Lebanon says Israeli strike on central Beirut kills two
- “Israeli warplanes launched a strike on the Mar Elias area,” the official National News Agency said of a densely packed residential and shopping district
BEIRUT: Lebanon said an Israeli strike on central Beirut’s Mar Elias district killed two people, the second such raid targeting the capital Sunday after an earlier strike killed a Hezbollah official.
Israel has been heavily bombing Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, since all-out war erupted on September 23, but attacks on central Beirut have been rarer.
“Israeli warplanes launched a strike on the Mar Elias area,” the official National News Agency said of a densely packed residential and shopping district that also houses people displaced by the conflict.
The health ministry said the strike killed two people and wounded 13, raising an earlier toll of one dead and nine wounded.
AFP journalists heard the sound of explosions and then sirens amid a strong acrid smell of burning. AFP images showed a blaze at the site that firefighters were trying to extinguish.
A Lebanese security source, requesting anonymity, told AFP that the strike hit an electronics store in Mar Elias, without providing further details.
The NNA said the strike “targeted a Jamaa Islamiya center,” referring to a Sunni Muslim group allied to Palestinian militant group Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
But Jamaa Islamiya lawmaker Imad Hout told AFP that “no center or institution affiliated with the group is located in the area targeted by the strike, and no member of the group was targeted.”
Earlier Sunday, a Lebanese security source said Hezbollah spokesman Mohammed Afif was killed in a strike on central Beirut’s Ras Al-Nabaa district.
Previous strikes claimed by Israel on Beirut’s southern suburbs have killed senior Hezbollah officials, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah in late September.
In the wake of Sunday’s strikes, the education minister said schools and higher education institutions in the Beirut area would remain closed for two days.
