BAGHDAD: Many Iraqi Kurds hailed last week’s announcement of a September referendum on independence as historic, but major obstacles will remain on the path to statehood after an expected landslide “yes.”
The autonomous region is still at war with the Daesh group, it hosts a displaced population of more than a million and its once promising economy has taken a double hit from conflict and low oil prices.
The northern region’s leader, Massud Barzani, announced on June 7 that a referendum would be held in Kurdish areas of Iraq on Sept. 25 to ask voters if they want a separate state.
The vote is non-binding, but sets the wheels in motion for an independent state that has been gestating since Iraq’s Kurds gained autonomy from Baghdad on the back of the 1991 Gulf War.
Hoshyar Zebari, former foreign minister of Iraq and a senior negotiator in Kurdistan’s independence process, described the decision as signifying that the Kurds had “crossed the Rubicon,” the point of no return.
Besides obvious security and economic challenges that need to be overcome for any viable state project, the other necessary conditions are internal unity and external assent.
Neither is guaranteed.
“The two biggest obstacles to Kurdistan’s independence are the question of its boundaries with Iraq and international recognition,” analyst Nathaniel Ribkin said.
“If no agreement is reached with Baghdad on borders, many countries will be reluctant to recognize a unilateral declaration of independence,” said Ribkin, managing editor of the Inside Iraqi Politics newsletter.
Iraqi Kurdistan’s most powerful neighbors Turkey and Iran, which have their own Kurdish minorities and support one of the autonomous region’s two main rival parties, have spoken against the referendum.
Tehran warned it could “only lead to new problems” while Turkey, through which Iraqi Kurdish oil is being exported, called the decision to organize the referendum “irresponsible” and a “grave mistake.”
Baghdad, much like the Kurdish region’s key US ally, has reacted relatively tamely by stressing the need to comply with the Constitution and reaffirming its commitment to Iraq’s territorial integrity.
The official reactions are as predictable as the referendum itself, which the Kurdish administration had promised would be held after Mosul is retaken, but the more distant prospect of secession is already being discussed by all sides.
The federal government has already set up a committee to discuss the shape of relations between Baghdad and a future, independent Kurdistan.
Turkey has expressed strong displeasure at the date of the referendum but may ultimately not be completely hostile to Kurdish independence in Iraq if this can help it contain Kurdish separatism at home.
Washington also objected to the timing of the vote, but has repeatedly expressed its support for the principle of self-determination.
“Without ironclad US security guarantees, an independent Kurdistan is unlikely to survive,” Amberin Zaman, a fellow at the US-based Wilson Center, wrote in a recent paper on the issue.
Iraqi Kurdish leaders enjoy strong support in Congress and appear to be taking the bet that Washington will be pragmatic and endorse a fait accompli, as it did a quarter of a century ago when the Kurds used a US-enforced no-fly zone to start building their institutions.
But Iraq’s roughly 5 million Kurds do not all agree between themselves on the referendum, whose announcement prompted some suspicious reactions internally.
The region is in political limbo. Barzani’s mandate as regional president expired nearly two years ago and Parliament was suspended a few weeks later.
The administration run by the Barzani clan is struggling to pay salaries and faces strong opposition, including from two parties that argued that a referendum should come after parliamentary and presidential polls.
“The referendum could serve as a lifeboat for ruling Kurdish parties that have failed to govern effectively,” said Yerevan Saeed, an analyst and research associate at the DC-based Arab Gulf Institute.
“Unless there is a form of Kurdish unity, I don’t see any viable path toward Kurdish independence,” he said.
While both the internal and broader context seem far from propitious, the ideal moment may never come, and some argue that the prospect of independence might be what the Kurds need to overcome their current difficulties.
“It is up to their leaders to bury the hatchet and to ensure that this dream for which so many Kurds have laid down their lives is finally translated into reality,” Zaman said.
Journey to statehood still long for Iraq Kurds
Journey to statehood still long for Iraq Kurds
Sudan’s RSF says seizes back control of key Darfur base from army allies
- Dozens of RSF soldiers were killed, vehicles destroyed and supplies captured as they captured the base, they said
DUBAI/CAIRO: Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized back control of a key logistical base in North Darfur on Sunday, the paramilitary group said, a day after it was taken by rival forces allied with Sudan’s army.
The conflict between the RSF and the army erupted in April 2023, and some of the fiercest fighting has taken place in North Darfur as the army and allied Joint Forces — a collection of former rebel groups — battle to maintain a last foothold in the wider Darfur region.
The Joint Forces and the army said in statements they had taken control on Saturday of the Al-Zurug base, which the RSF has used during the 20-month war as a logistical base to channel supplies from over the nearby borders with Chad and Libya.
Dozens of RSF soldiers were killed, vehicles destroyed and supplies captured as they captured the base, they said.
The incident could inflame ethnic tensions between the Arab tribes that form the base of the RSF and the Zaghawa tribe that forms most of the Joint Forces, analysts say.
The RSF accused Joint Forces fighters of killing civilians and burning down nearby homes and public amenities during the raid.
“The Joint Forces carried out ethnic cleansing against innocent civilians in Al-Zurug and intentionally killed children, women, and the elderly and burnt and destroyed wells and markets and homes and the health center and schools,” it said in a statement on Sunday.
The Joint Forces said the base had been used by the RSF as a “launching point for barbaric operations against civilians” in areas including Al-Fashir, the capital of North Darfur state and one of the most active frontlines in the fighting.
Since fighting picked up in Al-Fashir in mid-April, at least 782 civilians have been killed, according to a UN human rights report, the result of attacks via “intense” heavy artillery and suicide drones from the RSF and airstrikes and artillery strikes by the army.
On Sunday, activists from the Al-Fashir Resistance Committee reported an onslaught of at least 30 missiles fired on different parts of the city.
Seizing control of the city would bolster the RSF’s attempt to install a parallel government to the national government in Port Sudan, analysts say.
Jordanian minister criticizes ‘sensational’ reporting of Middle East events
- Mohammad Momani stressed the importance of obtaining verified information
- He said media freedom should not be misused to distort regional events
LONDON: Jordanian Minister of Government Communication Mohammad Momani emphasized the importance of professionalism and accuracy in reporting Middle Eastern events during a meeting with local, Arab and international media representatives on Sunday.
Momani said that a few international media outlets “sensationalize” regional events at the cost of accuracy, arguing that “this does not serve the public and undermines professional standards.”
He discussed with media representatives the importance of obtaining verified information to ensure accuracy, serve public opinion and uphold the right to knowledge, the official Jordanian news agency, Petra, reported.
Over the past year, some Western media outlets reporting on the Israeli war in the Gaza Strip and the conflict with Lebanon, as well as the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, have investigated some details in the stories they ran.
CNN investigated a recent video report that captures the moment a Syrian prisoner was freed from a secretive prison in Damascus. Critics have claimed that the report was staged and that the man featured in the CNN video was not who he claimed to be.
Momani said that media freedom should not be misused to distort regional circumstances or promote political and ideological agendas, Petra added.
He called on media outlets in Jordan to report on the country’s political and security realities professionally, accurately representing the event in all its aspects while rejecting false or misleading narratives.
Momani said that the Jordanian government was dedicated to transparency and communication with media representatives, including Arab, international and local outlets.
He praised the professional reporting on regional events by Jordanian state agencies and commended the country’s balanced political stance and commitment to stability.
Jordan’s Ministry of Government Communication regularly holds meetings and briefings to enhance communication with media representatives in Jordan.
Weakened Iran could pursue nuclear weapon, White House’s Sullivan says
WASHINGTON: The Biden administration is concerned that a weakened Iran could build a nuclear weapon, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday, adding that he was briefing President-elect Donald Trump’s team on the risk.
Iran has suffered setbacks to its regional influence after Israel’s assaults on its allies, Palestinian Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, followed by the fall of Iran-aligned Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, including missile factories and air defenses, have reduced Tehran’s conventional military capabilities, Sullivan told CNN.
“It’s no wonder there are voices (in Iran) saying, ‘Hey, maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon right now ... Maybe we have to revisit our nuclear doctrine’,” Sullivan said.
Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful, but it has expanded uranium enrichment since Trump, in his 2017-2021 presidential term, pulled out of a deal between Tehran and world powers that put restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activity in exchange for sanctions relief.
Sullivan said that there was a risk that Iran might abandon its promise not to build nuclear weapons.
“It’s a risk we are trying to be vigilant about now. It’s a risk that I’m personally briefing the incoming team on,” Sullivan said, adding that he had also consulted with US ally Israel.
Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, could return to his hard-line Iran policy by stepping up sanctions on Iran’s oil industry. Sullivan said Trump would have an opportunity to pursue diplomacy with Tehran, given Iran’s “weakened state.”
“Maybe he can come around this time, with the situation Iran finds itself in, and actually deliver a nuclear deal that curbs Iran’s nuclear ambitions for the long term,” he said.
Netanyahu says Israel will continue to act against the Houthis
- On Thursday, Israeli jets launched a series of strikes against energy and port infrastructure in Yemen
- Response to hundreds of missile and drone attacks launched by Houthis since start of Gaza war
JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday Israel would continue acting against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, whom he accused of threatening world shipping and the international order, and called on Israelis to be steadfast.
“Just as we acted forcefully against the terrorist arms of Iran’s axis of evil, so we will act against the Houthis,” he said in a video statement a day after a missile fired from Yemen fell in the Tel Aviv area, causing a number of mild injuries.
On Thursday, Israeli jets launched a series of strikes against energy and port infrastructure in Yemen in a move officials said was a response to hundreds of missile and drone attacks launched by the Houthis since the start of the Gaza war 14 months ago.
On Saturday, the US military said it conducted precision airstrikes against a missile storage facility and a command-and-control facility operated by Houthis in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa.
Netanyahu, strengthened at home by the Israeli military’s campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon and by its destruction of most of the Syrian army’s strategic weapons, said Israel would act with the United States.
“Therefore, we will act with strength, determination and sophistication. I tell you that even if it takes time, the result will be the same,” he said.
The Houthis have launched repeated attacks on international shipping in waters near Yemen since November 2023, in support of the Palestinians over Israel’s war with Hamas.
Iraq PM says Mosul airport to open in June, 11 years after Daesh capture
- On June 10, 2014, the Daesh group seized Mosul
BAGHDAD: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani on Sunday ordered for the inauguration of the airport in second city Mosul to be held in June, marking 11 years since Islamists took over the city.
On June 10, 2014, the Daesh group seized Mosul, declaring its “caliphate” from there 19 days later after capturing large swathes of Iraq and neighboring Syria.
After years of fierce battles, Iraqi forces backed by a US-led international coalition dislodged the group from Mosul in July 2017, before declaring its defeat across the country at the end of that year.
In a Sunday statement, Sudani’s office said the premier directed during a visit there “for the airport’s opening to be on June 10, coinciding with the anniversary of Mosul’s occupation, as a message of defiance in the face of terrorism.”
Over 80 percent of the airport’s runway and terminals have been completed, according to the statement.
Mosul’s airport had been completely destroyed in the fighting.
In August 2022, then-prime minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi laid the foundation stone for the airport’s reconstruction.
Sudani’s office also announced on Sunday the launch of a project to rehabilitate the western bank of the Tigris in Mosul, affirming that “Iraq is secure and stable and on the right path.”
