WASHINGTON: The Trump administration is pushing for inspections of suspicious Iranian military sites in a bid to test the strength of the nuclear deal that President Donald Trump desperately wants to cancel, senior US officials said.
The inspections are one element of what is designed to be a more aggressive approach to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. While the Trump administration seeks to police the existing deal more strictly, it is also working to fix what Trump’s aides have called “serious flaws” in the landmark deal that — if not resolved quickly — will likely lead Trump to pull out.
That effort also includes discussions with European countries to negotiate a follow-up agreement to prevent Iran from resuming nuclear development after the deal’s restrictions expire in about a decade, the officials said. The officials were not authorized to discuss the efforts publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.
The inspections requests, which Iran would likely resist, could play heavily into Trump’s much-anticipated decision about whether to stick with the deal he has long derided.
If Iran refuses inspections, Trump finally will have a solid basis to say Iran is breaching the deal, setting up Tehran to take most of the blame if the agreement collapses. If Iran agrees to inspections, those in Trump’s administration who want to preserve the deal will be emboldened to argue it is advancing US national security effectively.
The campaign gained fresh urgency this month following a dramatic clash within the administration about whether to certify Iran’s compliance, as is required every 90 days.
Trump was eager to declare Tehran in violation, even though the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that monitors compliance says its infractions are minor. At the urging of top Cabinet members, Trump begrudgingly agreed at the last minute to avoid a showdown for another three months — but only with assurances the US would increase pressure on Iran to test whether the deal is truly capable of addressing its nuclear ambitions and other troublesome activities.
Trump faces another certification deadline in three months, and it is far from clear that either new inspections or any “fixes” to address whether his concerns will be in place by then. Trump told The Wall Street Journal this week he expects to say Iran is not complying, setting a high bar for Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and other aides to persuade him otherwise.
“If it was up to me, I would have had them noncompliant 180 days ago,” Trump said.
To that end, the administration is seeking to force Iran to let in IAEA inspectors to military sites where the US intelligence community believes Tehran may be cheating on the deal, several officials said. Access to Iran’s military sites was one of the most contentious issues in the 2015 deal, in which Tehran agreed to roll back its nuclear program in exchange for billions of dollars in sanctions relief.
Last week in Vienna, where the IAEA is based, Undersecretary of State Thomas Shannon floated the proposal to the European members of the Joint Commission that oversees the deal, one official said. Britain, France and Germany joined the US, Russia, China and the EU two years ago in brokering the deal with Iran.
To force inspections of new sites in Iran, the US would need to enlist the support of the IAEA and a majority of the countries in the deal. But the US has run into early resistance over concerns it has yet to produce a “smoking gun” — compelling evidence of illicit activity at a military site that the IAEA could use to justify inspections, officials said.
Among the concerns about a rush toward inspections is that if they fail to uncover evidence of violations, it would undermine the IAEA’s credibility and its ability to demand future inspections. So the US is working to produce foolproof intelligence about illicit activity, officials said. The officials declined to describe the intelligence activities or the Iranian sites the US believes are involved.
Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, alluded to the strategy during an event hosted Wednesday by The Washington Post. Corker said the US was trying to “radically enforce” the deal by asking for access to “various facilities” in Iran.
“If they don’t let us in, boom,” Corker said. “You want the breakup of this deal to be about Iran. You don’t want it to be about the US, because we want our allies with us.”
The other major step to try to address what Trump has deemed flaws in the deal involves ensuring that Iran cannot revert to old behavior once the limitations on its program “sunset” over the next decade-plus.
Tehran can propose alternatives to on-site inspections, or reject the request, which would trigger a 24-day process for the Joint Commission countries to override the rejection.
That could drag on for months. And under ambiguities built into the deal, it is unclear whether Iran must allow IAEA inspectors into military sites, or whether the Iranians can take their own environmental samples and send them to the IAEA for testing, as was allowed under a 2015 side agreement that let Iran use its own experts to inspect the Parchin military site.
Even if Trump declares Iran in violation of the deal — a move that would invigorate his conservative base — he could still leave Iran’s sanctions relief in place.
US seeks to test Iran deal with more inspections
US seeks to test Iran deal with more inspections
Israel closes Al-Aqsa Mosque, Church of the Holy Sepulchre under ‘emergency’ measures
- Most shops in Jerusalem’s Old City have been closed, with only essential stores remaining open since Friday
- Palestinians in Jerusalem fear for their safety due to lack of proper shelters amid Israel-Iran conflict
LONDON: Israeli authorities in occupied East Jerusalem have imposed a closure for the fifth consecutive day on the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Church of the Holy Sepulchre while barring non-resident visitors from entering the Old City.
Israel announced a state of emergency after beginning airstrikes against Iran on Friday. Tehran retaliated by launching ballistic missiles at Israeli coastal towns and cities. Israel’s emergency measures prevented Palestinians and worshipers from entering the Al-Aqsa Mosque and its courtyards, as well as the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.
The Palestinian Authority’s Jerusalem Governorate added on Tuesday that most shops in the Old City had been closed, with only essential stores remaining open since Friday, Wafa news agency reported.
Israeli authorities have permitted settlers to visit the area surrounding the Al-Aqsa compound and perform Jewish prayers and rituals, while forces have intensified daily raids on Palestinian towns and suburbs in Jerusalem, including the Mount of Olives, Silwan, Issawiya, Shufaat, Hizma, Eizariya, Bir Nabala and Al-Ram, Wafa added. East Jerusalem is surrounded by 84 checkpoints and barriers, including recently installed earth mounds and gates.
Although Jerusalem has been spared so far from the Israel-Iran conflict, Palestinians in the city fear for their safety due to a lack of proper shelters within their towns and neighborhoods, Wafa reported.
Israeli authorities in Jerusalem have announced the opening of schools to be used as shelters from Iranian missile attacks. However, some Palestinian experts warned that the facilities may not be large enough to accommodate a significant number of residents, and some are even unsuitable for receiving civilians.
WHO says Gaza health care at breaking point as fuel runs out
- “For over 100 days, no fuel has entered Gaza and attempts to retrieve stocks from evacuation zones have been denied,” said Peeperkorn
- Peeperkorn said only 17 of Gaza’s 36 hospitals were currently minimally to partially functional
GENEVA: The World Health Organization on Tuesday pleaded for fuel to be allowed into Gaza to keep its remaining hospitals running, warning the Palestinian territory’s health system was at “breaking point.”
“For over 100 days, no fuel has entered Gaza and attempts to retrieve stocks from evacuation zones have been denied,” said Rik Peeperkorn, the WHO’s representative in the Palestinian territories.
“Combined with critical supply shortages, this is pushing the health system closer to the brink of collapse.”
Peeperkorn said only 17 of Gaza’s 36 hospitals were currently minimally to partially functional. They have a total of around 1,500 beds — around 45 percent fewer than before the conflict began.
He said all hospitals and primary health centers in north Gaza were currently out of service.
In Rafah in southern Gaza, health services are provided through the Red Cross field hospital and two partially-functioning medical points.
Speaking from Jerusalem, he said the 17 partially functioning hospitals and seven field hospitals were barely running on a minimum amount of daily fuel and “will soon have none left.”
“Without fuel, all levels of care will cease, leading to more preventable deaths and suffering.”
Hospitals were already switching between generators and batteries to power ventilators, dialysis machines and incubators, he said, and without fuel, ambulances cannot run and supplies cannot be delivered to hospitals.
Furthermore, field hospitals are entirely reliant on generators, and without electricity, the cold chain for keeping vaccines would fail.
The war was triggered by an unprecedented Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which resulted in the deaths of 1,219 people, according to official Israeli figures.
The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said on Monday that 5,194 people have been killed since Israel resumed strikes on the territory on March 18 following a truce.
The overall death toll in Gaza since the war broke out on October 7, 2023 has reached 55,493 people, according to the health ministry.
“People often ask when Gaza is going to be out of fuel; Gaza is already out of fuel,” said WHO trauma surgeon and emergency officer Thanos Gargavanis, speaking from the Strip.
“We are walking already the fine line that separates disaster from saving lives. The shrinking humanitarian space makes every health activity way more difficult than the previous day.”
How Israel used spies, smuggled drones and AI to stun and hobble Iran
- The Mossad and the military worked together for at least three years to lay the operational groundwork, according to a former intelligence officer who said he had knowledge of the attack
JERUSALEM: Israel stunned and hobbled Iran last week when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision.
Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems. With greater freedom to fly over Iran, Israel bombarded key nuclear sites and killed top generals and scientists. By the time Iran mustered a response hours later, its ability to retaliate — already weakened by past Israeli strikes — was greatly diminished.
This account is based on conversations with 10 current and former Israeli intelligence and military officials, some of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss clandestine operations.
It was not possible to independently verify some of their claims. But the former head of research at Israel’s spy agency, the Mossad, confirmed the basic contours of the attack, saying she had inside knowledge of how it was planned and executed.
“This attack is the culmination of years of work by the Mossad to target Iran’s nuclear program,” said Sima Shine, the former Mossad research director who is now an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies.
Israel’s element of surprise was enhanced by Iranian officials’ apparent assumption that Israel wouldn’t attack while talks over its rapidly advancing nuclear program were ongoing with the US
A sixth round of talks had been planned for last Sunday in Oman, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu activated “Operation Rising Lion” on Friday – after his country first notified President Donald Trump.
Netanyahu has for years said neutralizing Iran’s nuclear program was vital for Israel’s security, and Israel had previously taken steps to set back Iran’s ability to enrich uranium to weapons grade. But Netanyahu said a more aggressive attack proved necessary, as Iran kept advancing its enrichment program despite US diplomatic efforts and warnings from UN watchdogs.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini has repeatedly called for Israel’s destruction. Iran’s political leaders say their nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, though it was the only country without the bomb to enrich uranium close to weapons-grade levels.
Smuggling drones into Iran
The Mossad and the military worked together for at least three years to lay the operational groundwork, according to a former intelligence officer who said he had knowledge of the attack. This person spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the subject.
The attack built off knowledge Israel gained during a wave of airstrikes last October, which “highlighted the weakness of Iranian air defenses,” said Naysan Rafati, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.
To further diminish Iranian air defenses and missile systems at the start of last week’s attack, Mossad agents had smuggled precision weapons into Iran that were prepositioned to strike from close range, according to two current security officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the missions. Those weapons included small, armed drones, which agents snuck into the country in vehicles, according to the former intelligence officer.
Mossad agents stationed weapons close to Iranian surface-to-air missile sites, Shine said. The agency works with a mix of people, both locals and Israelis, she said.
Using AI and human intelligence to select targets
To analyze information gathered from various sources, Israel used the latest artificial-intelligence, or AI, technology, said an intelligence officer involved with selecting individuals and sites to target. He said AI was used to help Israelis quickly sift through troves of data they had obtained. That effort began last October according to the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media; it was one month before Netanyahu said he had ordered the attack plans.
An investigation by The Associated Press earlier this year uncovered that the Israeli military uses US-made AI models in war to sift through intelligence and intercept communications to learn the movements of its enemies. It’s been used in the wars with Hamas in Gaza and with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The intelligence officer involved in identifying the possible targets said options were first put into various groups, such as leadership, military, civilian and infrastructure. Targets were chosen if they were determined to be a threat to Israel, such as being deeply associated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard — a paramilitary force that controls Iran’s ballistic missiles.
The officer was tasked with putting together a list of Iranian generals, including details on where they worked and spent their free time.
Among the high-level military officials killed since Friday’s attack were Gen. Hossein Salami, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and Gen. Mohammed Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces.
In addition to AI, the Mossad relied on spies to identify top nuclear scientists and members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, according to one security official. At least eight members of the Guard, including the head of its missile program, were killed in a single Israeli strike on an underground bunker.
Targeting Iranian vehicles
Another facet of the attack was to strike Iranian vehicles used to transport and launch missiles.
Shine said the strategy was similar to a Ukrainian operation earlier this month in Russia. In that operation, nearly a third of Moscow’s strategic bomber fleet was destroyed or damaged with cheaply made drones snuck into Russian territory, according to Ukrainian officials.
In an interview with Iranian state-run television, the country’s police chief, Gen. Ahmadreza Radan, said “several vehicles carrying mini-drones and some tactical drones have been discovered.” He added: “a number of traitors are trying to engage the country’s air defense by flying some mini-drones.”
How far back does this go?
The Mossad is believed to have carried out numerous covert attacks on the Iranian nuclear program over the years, including cyberattacks and the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists. But it rarely acknowledges such operations.
In the 2000s, Iranian centrifuges used for enriching uranium were destroyed by the so-called Stuxnet computer virus, believed to be an Israeli and American creation.
In 2018, Israel stole an archive of Iranian nuclear research that included tens of thousands of pages of records, said Yossi Kuperwasser, a retired general and former military intelligence researcher who now directs the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
In July 2024, Israel killed a senior leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, with a bomb in a bedroom of a government guesthouse in Tehran.
Israel’s blistering attack last week on the heart of Iran’s nuclear and military structure didn’t come out of nowhere, said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who heads the Israel Defense and Security Forum think tank.
It was the result of “Israeli intelligence working extensively for years in Iran and establishing a very strong robust presence,” he said.
Iraq treads a tightrope to avoid spillover from Israel-Iran conflict
- “There is a sizable risk of a spillover escalation in Iraq,” said political analyst Sajad Jiyad
- “Iraqis have a right to be worried”
BAGHDAD: In Iraqi airspace, Iranian missiles and drones have crossed paths with Israeli warplanes, forcing Baghdad to step up efforts to avoid being drawn into the region’s latest conflict.
But with Baghdad both an ally of Iran and a strategic partner of the United States, Israel’s closest supporter, it may struggle to avoid the fighting spreading to its territory.
“There is a sizable risk of a spillover escalation in Iraq,” said political analyst Sajad Jiyad.
“Iraqis have a right to be worried,” he added.
With warnings of all-out regional war intensifying following Israel’s surprise assault on Iran last week, fears are growing over an intervention by Iran-backed Iraqi factions, which have been calling for the withdrawal of US troops deployed in Iraq as part of an anti-jihadist coalition.
A senior Iraqi security official told AFP on condition of anonymity that among pro-Iran actors “everyone is cooperating with the government to keep Iraq away from conflict.”
But Jiyad warned that if the US supports Israel’s attacks, it “may lead to pro-Iran elements inside Iraq targeting US troops” or other American interests like the embassy in Baghdad or the consulate in Irbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdistan region.
This could lead to the US and Israel taking retaliatory actions within Iraq, Jiyad added.
Iraq, which has been for years navigating a delicate balancing act between Tehran and Washington, has long been a fertile ground for proxy battles.
In 2020, during US President Donald Trump’s first term, Washington killed Iran’s esteemed Revolutionary Guards general Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad.
Most recently, amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, Iraq was on the brink of being drawn into the conflict after pro-Iran factions launched numerous attacks on US troops in the region, as well as mostly failed attacks on Israel, in support of Palestinians.
Washington retaliated by hitting the armed groups.
In recent days, Baghdad has been working diplomatic channels to prevent the latest violence from spreading onto its turf.
It has called on Washington to prevent Israeli jets from using Iraqi airspace to carry out attacks against Iran.
It also asked Iran not to strike US targets in its territory, and was promised “positive things,” according to a senior Iraqi official.
Israel’s use of Iraq’s airspace has angered pro-Iran groups, who accused US troops of allowing it.
Powerful armed faction Kataeb Hezbollah stressed that Iran does not need “military support,” but it said that the group is “closely monitoring” the US military in the region.
It warned that if Washington intervenes in the war, the group “will act directly against its interests and bases in the region without hesitation.”
A US official urged the Iraqi government to “protect diplomatic missions, as well as US military personnel.”
“We believe Iraq will be more stable and sovereign by becoming energy independent and distancing itself from Iran’s malign influence,” the official told AFP, referring to Iraq’s dependency on gas imports from Iran.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, warned that Iran-backed groups “continue to engage in violent and destabilising activities in Iraq.”
Israel’s surprise attack on Iran targeted military and nuclear facilities and killed many top commanders and atomic scientists. Iran responded by unleashing barrages of missile strikes on Israel.
Tamer Badawi, an expert on Iraqi armed groups, said “the more Iran struggles to sustain its firepower against Israel, the likelier it becomes that Iraqi paramilitary actors will be drawn in.”
For now, “Iran is trying to avoid collateral damage to its network by keeping its regional allies on standby. But this posture could shift,” he added.
Before launching its attack on Iran, Israel had badly hit Tehran’s proxies in the region, significantly weakening some groups, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
“Beyond attacks within Iraq, Iran-backed Iraqi groups retain the capacity to target Israel from western Iraq using their missile arsenals, as they have done before,” Badawi said.
They might also target American interests in Jordan.
But Iraqi officials say they have other plans for their country, which has only recently regained a semblance of stability after decades of devastating conflicts and turmoil.
Iraq is gearing up for its legislative elections in November, which are often marked by heated political wrangling.
For armed groups, elections are a crucial battleground as they strive to secure more seats in parliament.
“Sometimes, the sword must be kept in the sheath, but this does not mean abandoning our weapons,” a commander of an armed faction told AFP.
The armed groups will not leave Iran, their “godfather.. in the battle alone.”
China’s Xi ‘deeply worried’ by Iran, Israel conflict
BEIJING: Chinese President Xi Jinping said Tuesday he was “deeply worried” by Israel’s military action against Iran, as China also accused US leader Donald Trump of “pouring oil” on the mounting conflict.
Following decades of enmity and a prolonged shadow war, Israel launched a surprise aerial campaign last week against targets across Iran, saying it aimed to prevent its arch-foe from acquiring atomic weapons — an ambition Tehran denies.
The sudden flare-up in hostilities has sparked fears of a wider conflict, with Trump urging Iran back to the negotiating table after Israel’s attacks derailed ongoing nuclear talks.
Trump also issued an extraordinary warning on his Truth Social platform: “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!“
Asked about Trump’s remarks, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said: “Fanning the flames, pouring oil, making threats and mounting pressure will not help to promote the de-escalation of the situation, but will only intensify and widen the conflict.
“The Chinese side calls on all relevant parties, especially countries with special influence on Israel, to shoulder their responsibilities, take immediate measures to de-escalate tensions, and prevent the conflict from expanding and spreading.”
China’s President Xi Jinping called for de-escalation of the conflict “as soon as possible” during a meeting with Uzbekistan’s President in Kazakhstan on Tuesday, state media reported.
“Israel launching military action against Iran has caused a sudden escalation in tension in the Middle East, China is deeply worried about this,” Xi said, according to Xinhua.
“We oppose any act that infringes upon the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of other countries.”
China’s embassies in Iran and Israel also urged Chinese citizens to leave the countries “as soon as possible,” after Israel and Iran traded heavy strikes.
“The Chinese Embassy in Iran has coordinated with the Iranian side to facilitate outbound travel and reminds Chinese citizens currently in Iran to leave the country... as soon as possible,” the embassy in Tehran said in an online statement.
It suggested border crossings with Turkiye, Armenia, and Turkmenistan as possible routes out.
China’s embassy in Israel urged citizens to depart “in the direction of Jordan” as it warned that the conflict was “continuing to escalate.”
“Much civilian infrastructure has been damaged, civilian casualties are on the rise, and the security situation is becoming more serious,” it said in a post on WeChat.
