WASHINGTON: The Trump administration is pushing for inspections of suspicious Iranian military sites in a bid to test the strength of the nuclear deal that President Donald Trump desperately wants to cancel, senior US officials said.
The inspections are one element of what is designed to be a more aggressive approach to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. While the Trump administration seeks to police the existing deal more strictly, it is also working to fix what Trump’s aides have called “serious flaws” in the landmark deal that — if not resolved quickly — will likely lead Trump to pull out.
That effort also includes discussions with European countries to negotiate a follow-up agreement to prevent Iran from resuming nuclear development after the deal’s restrictions expire in about a decade, the officials said. The officials were not authorized to discuss the efforts publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.
The inspections requests, which Iran would likely resist, could play heavily into Trump’s much-anticipated decision about whether to stick with the deal he has long derided.
If Iran refuses inspections, Trump finally will have a solid basis to say Iran is breaching the deal, setting up Tehran to take most of the blame if the agreement collapses. If Iran agrees to inspections, those in Trump’s administration who want to preserve the deal will be emboldened to argue it is advancing US national security effectively.
The campaign gained fresh urgency this month following a dramatic clash within the administration about whether to certify Iran’s compliance, as is required every 90 days.
Trump was eager to declare Tehran in violation, even though the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that monitors compliance says its infractions are minor. At the urging of top Cabinet members, Trump begrudgingly agreed at the last minute to avoid a showdown for another three months — but only with assurances the US would increase pressure on Iran to test whether the deal is truly capable of addressing its nuclear ambitions and other troublesome activities.
Trump faces another certification deadline in three months, and it is far from clear that either new inspections or any “fixes” to address whether his concerns will be in place by then. Trump told The Wall Street Journal this week he expects to say Iran is not complying, setting a high bar for Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and other aides to persuade him otherwise.
“If it was up to me, I would have had them noncompliant 180 days ago,” Trump said.
To that end, the administration is seeking to force Iran to let in IAEA inspectors to military sites where the US intelligence community believes Tehran may be cheating on the deal, several officials said. Access to Iran’s military sites was one of the most contentious issues in the 2015 deal, in which Tehran agreed to roll back its nuclear program in exchange for billions of dollars in sanctions relief.
Last week in Vienna, where the IAEA is based, Undersecretary of State Thomas Shannon floated the proposal to the European members of the Joint Commission that oversees the deal, one official said. Britain, France and Germany joined the US, Russia, China and the EU two years ago in brokering the deal with Iran.
To force inspections of new sites in Iran, the US would need to enlist the support of the IAEA and a majority of the countries in the deal. But the US has run into early resistance over concerns it has yet to produce a “smoking gun” — compelling evidence of illicit activity at a military site that the IAEA could use to justify inspections, officials said.
Among the concerns about a rush toward inspections is that if they fail to uncover evidence of violations, it would undermine the IAEA’s credibility and its ability to demand future inspections. So the US is working to produce foolproof intelligence about illicit activity, officials said. The officials declined to describe the intelligence activities or the Iranian sites the US believes are involved.
Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, alluded to the strategy during an event hosted Wednesday by The Washington Post. Corker said the US was trying to “radically enforce” the deal by asking for access to “various facilities” in Iran.
“If they don’t let us in, boom,” Corker said. “You want the breakup of this deal to be about Iran. You don’t want it to be about the US, because we want our allies with us.”
The other major step to try to address what Trump has deemed flaws in the deal involves ensuring that Iran cannot revert to old behavior once the limitations on its program “sunset” over the next decade-plus.
Tehran can propose alternatives to on-site inspections, or reject the request, which would trigger a 24-day process for the Joint Commission countries to override the rejection.
That could drag on for months. And under ambiguities built into the deal, it is unclear whether Iran must allow IAEA inspectors into military sites, or whether the Iranians can take their own environmental samples and send them to the IAEA for testing, as was allowed under a 2015 side agreement that let Iran use its own experts to inspect the Parchin military site.
Even if Trump declares Iran in violation of the deal — a move that would invigorate his conservative base — he could still leave Iran’s sanctions relief in place.
US seeks to test Iran deal with more inspections
US seeks to test Iran deal with more inspections
Syria de facto leader Al-Sharaa phones congratulations to Lebanon’s newly elected President Aoun
- Call followed talks between Al-Sharaa and Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Damascus
- Al-Sharaa said he hoped Joseph Aoun’s presidency would usher in an era of stability in Lebanon
DAMASCUS: Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa called newly elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on the phone and congratulated him for assuming the presidency, Syria’s ruling general command reported on Sunday.
The phone call followed talks between Al-Sharaa and Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who was in the Syrian capital on Saturday with a mission to restore ties between the two neighbors.
Mikati’s visit was the first by a Lebanese head of government to Damascus since the Syrian civil war started in 2011.
Previous Lebanese governments refrained from visits to Syria amid tensions at home over militant group Hezbollah’s support for then ruler Bashar Assad during the conflict.
Syria’s new leader Al-Sharaa said he hoped to turn over a new leaf in relations, days after crisis-hit Lebanon finally elected a president this week following two years of deadlock.
“There will be long-term strategic relations between us and Lebanon. We and Lebanon have great shared interests,” Sharaa said in a joint press conference with Mikati.
It was time to “give the Syrian and Lebanese people a chance to build a positive relationship,” he said, adding he hoped Joseph Aoun’s presidency would usher in an era of stability in Lebanon.
Sharaa said the new Syria would “stay at equal distance from all” in Lebanon, and “try to solve problems through negotiations and dialogue.”
Mikati said ties should be based on “mutual respect, equality and national sovereignty.”
Syria was the dominant power in Lebanon for three decades under the Assad family, with president Hafez Assad intervening in its 1975-1990 civil war and his son Bashar Assad only withdrawing Syria’s troops in 2005 following mass protests triggered by the assassination of Lebanese ex-prime minister Rafic Hariri.
After mending ties with Damascus, his son Saad Hariri was the last Lebanese premier to visit the Syrian capital in 2010 before the civil war.
Taking office on Thursday, Aoun swore he would seize the “historic opportunity to start serious... dialogue with the Syrian state.”
With Hezbollah weakened after two months of full-scale war with Israel late last year and Assad now gone, Syrian and Lebanese leaders seem eager to work to solve long-pending issues.
Among them is the presence of some two million Syrian refugees Lebanon says have sought shelter there since Syria’s war started.
Their return to Syria had become “an urgent matter in the interest of both countries,” Mikati said.
Lebanese authorities have long complained that hosting so many Syrians has become a burden for the tiny Mediterranean country which since 2019 has been wracked by its worst-ever economic crisis.
Mikati also said it was a priority “to draw up the land and sea borders between Lebanon and Syria,” calling for creation of a joint committee to discuss the matter.
Under Assad, Syria repeatedly refused to delimit its borders with its neighbor.
Lebanon has hoped to draw the maritime border so it can begin offshore gas extraction after reaching a similar agreement with Israel in 2022.
The Lebanese premier said both sides had stressed the need for “complete control of (land) borders, especially over illicit border points, to stem smuggling.”
Syria shares a 330-kilometer (205-mile) border with Syria with no official demarcation at several points, making it porous and prone to smuggling.
Syria imposed new restrictions on the entry of Lebanese citizens last week, following what Lebanon’s army said was a border skirmish with unnamed armed Syrians.
Lebanese nationals had previously been allowed into Syria without a visa.
Several foreign dignitaries have headed to Damascus in recent weeks to meet the new leaders, with a delegation from Oman also in town earlier Saturday.
Unlike other Arab Gulf states, Oman never severed diplomatic ties with Assad during the war.
Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani visited Damascus on Friday, while France’s Jean-Noel Barrot and his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock did last week.
Shaibani has visited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Jordan this month, and said Friday he would head to Europe soon.
Syria’s war has killed more than half a million people and ravaged the country’s economy since starting in 2011 with the brutal crackdown of anti-Assad protests.
Eight killed, 50 injured in explosion of gas station, gas storage tank in Yemen’s Al-Bayda, sources say
CAIRO: Eight people were killed and 50 others injured in an explosion of a gas station and a gas storage tank in Yemen’s Al-Bayda province, a medical source and a local official said.
Russia eyes Libya to replace Syria as Africa launchpad
- On December 18 the Wall Street Journal, citing Libyan and American officials, said there had been a transfer of Russian radars and defense systems from Syria to Libya, including S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft batteries
PARIS: The fall of Russian ally Bashar Assad in Syria has disrupted the Kremlin’s strategy not only for the Mediterranean but also for Africa, pushing it to focus on Libya as a potential foothold, experts say.
Russia runs a military port and an air base on the Syrian coast, designed to facilitate its operations in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa, especially the Sahel, Sudan, and the Central African Republic.
However, this model is in jeopardy with the abrupt departure of the Syrian ruler.
Although Syria’s new leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, has called Russia an “important country,” saying “we do not want Russia to leave Syria in the way that some wish,” the reshuffling of cards in Syria is pushing Russia to seek a strategic retreat toward Libya.
In Libya, Russian mercenaries already support Khalifa Haftar, a field marshal controlling the east of the country, against the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) which has UN recognition and is supported by Turkiye.
“The goal is notably to preserve the ongoing Russian missions in Africa,” said Jalel Harchaoui at the RUSI think tank in the UK.
“It’s a self-preservation reflex” for Russia which is anxious “to mitigate the deterioration of its position in Syria,” he told AFP.
In May 2024, Swiss investigative consortium “All Eyes On Wagner” identified Russian activities at around 10 Libyan sites, including the port of Tobruk, where military equipment was delivered in February and April of last year.
There were around 800 Russian troops present in February 2024, and 1,800 in May.
On December 18 the Wall Street Journal, citing Libyan and American officials, said there had been a transfer of Russian radars and defense systems from Syria to Libya, including S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft batteries.
Since Assad’s fall on December 8, “a notable volume of Russian military resources has been shipped to Libya from Belarus and Russia,” said Harchaoui, adding there had been troop transfers as well.
Ukrainian intelligence claimed on January 3 that Moscow planned “to use Sparta and Sparta II cargo ships to transport military equipment and weapons” to Libya.
Beyond simply representing a necessary replacement of “one proxy with another,” the shift is a quest for “continuity,” said expert Emadeddin Badi on the Atlantic Council’s website, underscoring Libya’s role as “a component of a long-standing strategy to expand Moscow’s strategic foothold in the region.”
According to Badi, “Assad offered Moscow a foothold against NATO’s eastern flank and a stage to test military capabilities.”
Haftar, he said, presents a similar opportunity, “a means to disrupt western interests, exploit Libya’s fractured politics, and extend Moscow’s influence into Africa.”
The Tripoli government and Italy, Libya’s former colonial master, have expressed concern over Russian movements, closely observed by the European Union and NATO.
Several sources say the United States has tried to persuade Haftar to deny the Russians a permanent installation at the port of Tobruk that they have coveted since 2023.
It seems already clear the Kremlin will struggle to find the same level of ease in Libya that it had during Assad’s reign.
“Syria was convenient,” said Ulf Laessing, the Bamako-based head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
“It was this black box with no Western diplomats, no journalists. They could basically do what they wanted,” he told AFP.
“But in Libya, it will be much more complicated. It’s difficult to keep things secret there and Russian presence will be much more visible,” he said.
Moscow will also have to contend with other powers, including Turkiye, which is allied with the GNU, as well as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, who are patrons of Haftar.
In Libya, torn into two blocs since the ouster of longtime leader Muammar Qaddafi in February 2011, “everybody’s trying to work with both sides,” said Laessing.
Over the past year, even Turkiye has moved closer to Haftar, seeking potential cooperation on economic projects and diplomatic exchanges.
Russia will also be mindful to have a plan B should things go wrong for its Libyan ally.
“We must not repeat the mistake made in Syria, betting on a local dictator without an alternative,” said Vlad Shlepchenko, military correspondent for the pro-Kremlin media Tsargrad.
Haftar, meanwhile, is unlikely to want to turn his back on western countries whose tacit support he has enjoyed.
“There are probably limits to what the Russians can do in Libya,” said Laessing.
Turkiye’s Kurdish leaders meet jailed politician as the two sides inch toward peace
- The armed conflict between the PKK and the Turkish state, which started in August 1984 and has claimed tens of thousands of lives, has seen several failed attempts at peace
ISTANBUL: A delegation from one of Turkiye’s biggest pro-Kurdish political parties met a leading figure of the Kurdish movement in prison Saturday, the latest step in a tentative process to end the country’s 40-year conflict, the party said.
Three senior figures from the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party, or DEM, met the party’s former co-chairperson, Selahattin Demirtas, at Edirne prison near the Greek border.
The meeting with Demirtas — jailed in 2016 on terrorism charges that most observers, including the European Court of Human Rights, have labelled politically motivated — took place two weeks after DEM members met Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned head of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.
While the PKK has led an armed insurgency against the Turkish state since the 1980s, the DEM is the latest party representing left-leaning Kurdish nationalism. Both DEM and its predecessors have faced state measures largely condemned as repression, including the jailing of elected officials and the banned of parties.
In a statement released on social media after the meeting, Demirtas called on all sides to “focus on a common future where everyone, all of us, will win.”
Demirtas credited Ocalan with raising the chance that the PKK could lay down its arms. Ocalan has been jailed on Imrali island in the Sea of Marmara since 1999 for treason over his leadership of the PKK, considered a terrorist organization by Turkiye and most Western states.
Demirtas led the DEM between 2014 and 2018, when it was known as the Peoples’ Democratic Party, or HDP, and he is still widely admired. He said that despite “good intentions,” it was necessary for “concrete steps that inspire confidence … to be taken quickly.”
One of the DEM delegation, Ahmet Turk, said: “I believe that Turks need Kurds and Kurds need Turks. Our wish is for Turkiye to come to a point where it can build democracy in the Middle East.”
The armed conflict between the PKK and the Turkish state, which started in August 1984 and has claimed tens of thousands of lives, has seen several failed attempts at peace.
Despite being imprisoned for a quarter of a century, Ocalan remains central to any chance of success due to his ongoing popularity among many of Turkiye’s Kurds. In a statement released on Dec. 29, he signaled his willingness to “contribute positively” to renewed efforts.
Meanwhile, in an address Saturday to ruling party supporters in Diyarbakir, the largest city in the Kurdish-majority southeast, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for the disbandment of the PKK and the surrender of its weapons.
This would allow DEM “the opportunity to develop itself, strengthening our internal front against the increasing conflicts in our region, in short, closing the half-century-old separatist terror bracket and consigning it to history ... forever,” he said in televised comments.
The latest drive for peace came when Devlet Bahceli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party and a close ally of Erdogan, surprised everyone in October when he suggested that Ocalan could be granted parole if he renounced violence and disbanded the PKK.
Erdogan offered tacit support for Bahceli’s suggestion a week later, and Ocalan said he was ready to work for peace, in a message conveyed by his nephew.
Four Daesh members, including two leaders, killed in eastern Iraq
- The caliphate collapsed in 2017 in Iraq, where it once had a base just a 30-minute drive from Baghdad, and in Syria in 2019, after a sustained military campaign by a US-led coalition
BAGHDAD: Four members of the Daesh, including two senior leaders, were killed in an airstrike carried out by Iraqi aircraft in the Hamrin Mountains in eastern Iraq, security officials said on Saturday.
The Iraqi Security Media Cell, an official body responsible for disseminating security information, said in a statement four bodies of Daesh militants were found in the area where Iraqi F-16 fighter jets carried out the strike on Friday.
Talib Al-Mousawi, an official at Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) — a grouping of armed factions originally set up to fight Daesh in 2014 that was subsequently recognized as an official security force, told Reuters the dead included two top Daesh leaders in the Diyala province in eastern Iraq.
The identity of another militant will be determined following an examination, the Security Media Cell said.
At the height of its power from 2014-2017, the Daesh “caliphate” imposed death and torture on communities in vast swathes of Iraq and Syria and had influence across the Middle East.
The caliphate collapsed in 2017 in Iraq, where it once had a base just a 30-minute drive from Baghdad, and in Syria in 2019, after a sustained military campaign by a US-led coalition.
Daesh responded by scattering in autonomous cells; its leadership is clandestine and its overall size is hard to quantify. The UN estimates it at 10,000 in its heartlands.
