SEOUL: North Korea has been condemned and sanctioned for its nuclear ambitions, yet has still received food, fuel and other aid from its neighbors and adversaries for decades. How does the small, isolated country keep getting what it wants and needs?
Some put its success down to the extraordinary nuclear blackmail skills of a country whose leaders could be buying food instead of bombs and missiles. Some see the willingness of outsiders to help people in desperate need, regardless of how odious the government the rules them, and others credit the feeling in South Korea that aid could improve ties.
North Korea has had gradual economic growth in recent years and doesn’t appeal for foreign humanitarian assistance as much as it did in the past. Despite multiple rounds of UN sanctions, the nation’s leader Kim Jong Un has defiantly pushed his scientists to manufacture a nuclear-tipped missile capable of reaching the US heartland. It test-launched two intercontinental ballistic missile in the past month, and once Kim perfects such weapons, he may to try to extract bigger concessions from Washington.
An examination of how a country that frustrates and infuriates much of the world manages to get what it wants:
NUKES FOR AID
A relentless pursuit of nuclear weapons has been a major source of the country’s ability to pull in aid and concessions.
Since the North Korean nuclear crisis first started in 1993, Pyongyang has agreed to several now-dormant disarmament-for-aid deals.
One accord was signed with the United States following bilateral talks in Geneva in 1994, while others were struck with several regional powers including Washington during on-and-off multilateral forums that lasted from 2003-2008.
Under those deals, North Korea halted atomic activities or disabled key elements of its weapons programs in return for security guarantees, heavy fuel shipments, power-producing nuclear reactors or other aid. Despite it all, nothing has led to North Korea substantially dismantling its nuclear program.
Washington accused Pyongyang of cheating and covertly continuing its atomic work, while the North often blamed the United States and others for failing to provide aid on time.
SOUTH KOREAN SUNSHINE
Seoul, though the North’s bitter enemy, has also helped its neighbor out regularly.
During the Sunshine Era of inter-Korean detente from 1998-2008, liberals in Seoul espoused a greater reconciliation. This was welcome in North Korea, which had depended on outside handouts to feed many of its 24 million people and revive an economy devastated by a famine that killed hundreds of thousands in the mid-1990s.
South Korea shipped hundreds of thousands of tons of rice and fertilizer to North Korea annually and engaged in cooperation projects that became some of the few legitimate sources of foreign currency for the North. The value of the cash and goods provided to North Korea during that time was $6.8 billion, according to Seoul’s Unification Ministry.
Liberals credit their engagement with lowering border animosities and allowing two landmark inter-Korean summit talks and emotional reunions of families separated by war. Critics question whether South Korean aid and investment reached those who needed it most or instead helped finance the North’s weapons programs.
Seoul’s large humanitarian assistance programs and cooperation projects were suspended after conservatives came to power in 2008.
CHINESE SUPPORT
China is widely seen as crucial to US-led efforts to strip North Korea of atomic bombs.
China accounts for about 90 percent of North Korea’s trade, and it sends about 500,000 tons of crude oil to North Korea, mostly for free, every year. China and Russia are also the two biggest hubs for tens of thousands of North Korean workers dispatched abroad — another key source of income for the North.
Critics say Beijing has never fully implemented UN sanctions on the North out of worries about a North Korean collapse that could cause a wave of refugees crossing the border and American troops moving into the North. China is frustrated with North Korea, whose nuclear ambitions put Beijing in an awkward international position, but the Kim government still best serves China’s national interests.
Some believe even a brief suspension of Chinese oil would cause chaos in the North and force Kim to change.
“If China stopped sending fuel shipments for just two to three weeks after the North’s first ICMB launch on July 4, North Korea would not have dared conduct a second firing,” said analyst Cheong Seong-Chang at South Korea’s Sejong Institute.
THE FUTURE
Kim may see his future nuclear arsenal as the ultimate bargaining chip.
North Korea will receive fresh UN sanctions for its ICBM launches. But the country is already heavily sanctioned and won’t likely feel real pain unless China halts its oil shipments or takes other harsh measures.
Kim likely won’t talk with Washington or Seoul until he has a proven ICBM arsenal. His government ignored an offer last month by South Korea’s new liberal President Moon Jae-in to resume talks on easing confrontation and resuming family reunions.
After he gets missiles that give him a credible deterrence against US aggression, Kim may try to ease outside sanctions or wrest security guarantees and other concessions by using a proposed freeze of the North’s future weapons activities — but not already-manufactured nuclear missiles — as a bargaining chip in negotiations.
“North Korea knows it can get bigger rewards when it has a bigger (nuclear) capability,” said Shin Beomchul at the Seoul-based Korea National Diplomatic Academy.
North Korea’s evolving ways to get what it wants and needs
North Korea’s evolving ways to get what it wants and needs
Trudeau in Florida to meet Trump as tariff threats loom
- The unannounced meeting came at the end of a week that has seen Canada as well as Mexico scramble to blunt the impact of Trump’s trade threats
Palm Beach: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traveled to Florida on Friday for a dinner with Donald Trump at the president-elect’s Mar-a-Lago estate, as the incoming US leader promised tariffs on Canadian imports.
The unannounced meeting came at the end of a week that has seen Canada as well as Mexico scramble to blunt the impact of Trump’s trade threats, which experts have warned could also hit US consumers hard.
A smiling Trudeau was seen exiting a hotel in West Palm Beach before arriving at Mar-a-Lago, making him the latest high-profile guest of Trump, whose impending second term — which starts in January — is already overshadowing the last few months of President Joe Biden’s administration.
Flight trackers had first spotted a jet broadcasting the prime minister’s callsign making its way to the southern US state. A Canadian government source later told AFP that the two leaders were dining together.
Trump caused panic among some of the biggest US trading partners on Monday when he said he would impose tariffs of 25 percent on Mexican and Canadian imports and 10 percent on goods from China.
He accused the countries of not doing enough to halt the “invasion” of the United States by drugs, “in particular fentanyl,” and undocumented migrants.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum spoke with Trump by phone on Wednesday, though the two leaders’ accounts of the conversation differed drastically.
Trump claimed that Mexico’s left-wing president had “agreed to stop migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border.”
Sheinbaum later said she had discussed US-supported anti-migration policies that have long been in place in Mexico.
She said that after that, the talks had no longer revolved around the threat of tariff hikes, downplaying the risk of a trade war.
Billions in trade
Biden warned that same day that Trump’s tariff threats could “screw up” Washington’s relationships with Ottawa and Mexico City.
“I think it’s a counterproductive thing to do,” Biden told reporters.
Trudeau did not respond to questions from the media as he returned to his hotel Friday evening after meeting with Trump.
But for Canada, the stakes of any new tariffs are high.
More than three-quarters of Canadian exports, or Can$592.7 billion ($423 billion), went to the United States last year, and nearly two million Canadian jobs are dependent on trade.
A Canadian government source told AFP that Canada is considering possible retaliatory tariffs against the United States.
Some have suggested Trump’s tariff threat may be bluster, or an opening salvo in future trade negotiations. But Trudeau rejected those views when he spoke with reporters earlier in Prince Edward Island province.
“Donald Trump, when he makes statements like that, he plans on carrying them out,” Trudeau said. “There’s no question about it.”
According to the website Flightradar, the Canadian leader’s plane landed at Palm Beach International Airport late Friday afternoon.
Canadian public broadcaster CBC said that Trudeau’s public safety minister, Dominic LeBlanc, was accompanying him on the trip.
US approves $385 million arms sale for Taiwan
- United States is bound by law to provide Chinese-claimed Taiwan with the means to defend itself despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties
WASHINGTON. The US State Department has approved the potential sale of spare parts for F-16 jets and radars to Taiwan for an estimated $385 million, the Pentagon said on Friday, a day before Taiwan President Lai Ching-te starts a sensitive Pacific trip.
The United States is bound by law to provide Chinese-claimed Taiwan with the means to defend itself despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties between Washington and Taipei, to the constant anger of Beijing.
Democratically governed Taiwan rejects China’s claims of sovereignty.
China has been stepping up military pressure against Taiwan, including two rounds of war games this year, and security sources have told Reuters that Beijing may hold more to coincide with Lai’s tour of the Pacific, which includes stopovers in Hawaii and Guam, a US territory.
The Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said the sale consisted of $320 million in spare parts and support for F-16 fighters and Active Electronically Scanned Array Radars and related equipment.
The State Department also approved the potential sale to Taiwan of improved mobile subscriber equipment and support for an estimated $65 million, the Pentagon said. The principal contractor for the $65 million sale is General Dynamics.
Last month, the United States announced a potential $2 billion arms sale package to Taiwan, including the delivery for the first time to the island of an advanced air defense missile system battle tested in Ukraine.
Lai leaves for Hawaii on Saturday on what is officially a stopover on the way to Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau, three of the 12 countries that still to have formal diplomatic ties with Taipei. He will also stop over in Guam.
Hawaii and Guam are home to major US military bases.
China on Friday urged the United States to exercise “utmost caution” in its relations with Taiwan.
The State Department said it saw no justification for what it called a private, routine and unofficial transit by Lai to be used as a pretext for provocation.
North Korea’s Kim vows steadfast support for Russia’s war in Ukraine
- North Korea has sent more than 10,000 troops to Russia and some of them have already begun engaging in combat on the frontlines
- South Korea, the US and their partners are concerned that Russia could give North Korea advanced weapons technology in return
SEOUL, South Korea: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed his country will “invariably support” Russia’s war in Ukraine as he met Russia’s defense chief, the North’s state media reported Saturday.
A Russia military delegation led by Defense Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in North Korea on Friday, amid growing international concern about the two countries’ expanding cooperation after North Korea sent thousands of troops to Russia last month.
The official Korean Central News Agency said that Kim and Belousov reached “a satisfactory consensus” on boosting strategic partnership and defending each country’s sovereignty, security interests and international justice in the face of the rapidly-changing international security environments in a Friday meeting.
Kim said that North Korea “will invariably support the policy of the Russian Federation to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity from the imperialists’ moves for hegemony,” KCNA said.
North Korea has supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calling it a defensive response to what both Moscow and Pyongyang call NATO’s “reckless” eastward advance and US-led moves to stamp out Russia’s position as a powerful state.
Kim slammed a US decision earlier in November to let Ukraine strike targets inside Russia with US-supplied longer-range missiles as a direct intervention in the conflict. He called recent Russian strikes on Ukraine “a timely and effective measure” demonstrate Russia’s resolve, KCNA said.
According to US, Ukrainian and South Korean assessments, North Korea has sent more than 10,000 troops to Russia and some of them have already begun engaging in combat on the frontlines. US, South Korean and others say North Korea has also shipped artillery systems, missiles and other conventional weapons to replenish Russia’s exhausted weapons inventory.
Both North Korea and Russia haven’t formally confirmed the North Korean troops’ movements, and have steadfastly denied reports of weapons shipments.
South Korea, the US and their partners are concerned that Russia could give North Korea advanced weapons technology in return, including help to build more powerful nuclear missiles.
Last week, South Korean national security adviser Shin Wonsik told a local SBS TV program that that Seoul assessed that Russia has provided air defense missile systems to North Korea. He said Russia also appeared to have given economic assistance to North Korea and various military technologies, including those needed for the North’s efforts to build a reliable space-based surveillance system.
Belousov also met North Korean Defense Minister No Kwang Chol on Friday. During a dinner banquet later the same day, Belousov said the the two countries’ strategic partnership was crucial to defend their sovereignty from aggression and the arbitrary actions of imperialists, KCNA said.
In June, Kim and Putin signed a treaty requiring both countries to provide immediate military assistance if either is attacked. It’s considered the two countries’ biggest defense deal since the end of the Cold War.
Blast at Kosovo canal feeding key power plants a ‘terrorist attack’, says prime minister
- “The attack was carried out by professionals. We believe it comes from gangs directed by Serbia,” says Prime Minister Albin Kurti
- Animosity between ethnic Albanian-majority Kosovo and Serbia has persisted since the end of the war between Serbian forces and ethnic Albanian insurgents in the late 1990s
PRISTINA: An explosion on Friday damaged a canal supplying water to Kosovo’s two main coal-fired power plants, Prime Minister Albin Kurti said, blaming a “terrorist attack” by neighboring Serbia.
“This is a criminal and terrorist attack aimed at damaging our critical infrastructure,” Kurti told a press conference late Friday.
“The attack was carried out by professionals. We believe it comes from gangs directed by Serbia,” he added without providing any evidence.
The blast occurred near the town of Zubin Potok in the country’s troubled north, damaging a canal supplying water to cooling systems at two power plants that generate most of Kosovo’s electricity.
Kurti gave no details about the extent of the damage, but said if it was not repaired part of Kosovo could be without electricity as soon as Saturday morning.
Pictures from the scene published by local media showed water leaking heavily from one side of the reinforced canal, which runs from the Serb-majority north of Kosovo to the capital Pristina and also supplies drinking water.
The United States strongly condemned the “attack on critical infrastructure in Kosovo,” the US embassy in Pristina said in a statement on Facebook.
“We are monitoring the situation closely... and have offered our full support to the government of Kosovo to ensure that those responsible for this criminal attack are identified and held accountable.”
Animosity between ethnic Albanian-majority Kosovo and Serbia has persisted since the end of the war between Serbian forces and ethnic Albanian insurgents in the late 1990s.
Kosovo declared independence in 2008, a move that Serbia has refused to acknowledge.
Kurti’s government has for months sought to dismantle a parallel system of social services and political offices backed by Belgrade to serve Kosovo’s Serbs.
Friday’s attack came after a series of violent incidents in northern Kosovo, including the hurling of hand grenades at a municipal building and a police station earlier this week.
AFP has contacted the Serbian government for comment.
Senior Russian diplomat says possibility of new nuclear tests remains open question
- Moscow has not conducted a nuclear weapons test since 1990, the year before the collapse of the Soviet Union
MOSCOW: A possible resumption of nuclear weapons tests by Moscow remains an open question in view of hostile US policies, a senior Russian diplomat was quoted as saying early on Saturday.
“This is a question at hand,” Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told TASS news agency when asked whether Moscow was considering a resumption of tests.
“And without anticipating anything, let me simply say that the situation is quite difficult. It is constantly being considered in all its components and in all its aspects.”
In September, Ryabkov referred to President Vladimir Putin as having said that Russia would not conduct a test as long as the United States refrained from carrying one out.
Moscow has not conducted a nuclear weapons test since 1990, the year before the collapse of the Soviet Union.
But Putin this month lowered the threshold governing the country’s nuclear doctrine in response to what Moscow sees as escalation by Western countries backing Ukraine in the 33-month-old war pitting it against Russia.
Under the new terms, Russia could consider a nuclear strike in response to a conventional attack on Russia or its ally Belarus that “created a critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) their territorial integrity.”
The changes were prompted by US permission to allow Ukraine to use Western missiles against targets inside Russia.
Russia’s testing site is located on the remote Novaya Zemlya archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, where the Soviet Union conducted more than 200 nuclear tests.
Putin signed a law last year withdrawing Russia’s ratification of the global treaty banning nuclear weapons tests. He said the move sought to bring Russia into line with the United States, which signed but never ratified the treaty.
