ANKARA: Regional actors are concerned about the referendum on Iraqi Kurdish independence, scheduled for Sept. 25.
The US, requesting a postponement, has voiced concerns that the referendum will hinder the war against Daesh. Turkey says the vote will violate Iraq’s constitution and further undermine regional stability.
Ankara has called the decision to hold a referendum a “serious mistake.” Presidency spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said Turkey perceives the vote as a “wrong step” that will not resolve any of Iraq’s problems.
Turkey’s Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag on Tuesday emphasized Ankara’s concerns, which are shared by its neighbors.
Iran’s Chief of Staff Mohammad Baqeri visited Ankara to discuss with his Turkish counterpart Gen. Hulusi Akar the referendum and its regional repercussions. Iran and Turkey have long been fighting their own Kurdish separatists.
With the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia gaining territory in northern Syria, Ankara fears that events could spiral out of its control and result in another Kurdish entity on its border.
The referendum will have consequences for energy cooperation between Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq, especially in terms of oil.
For Ankara, promoting regional stability and deterring Kurdish separatism mean securing energy flows.
Last week, Turkish Energy Minister Berat Albayrak said if the KRG insists on holding the referendum, northern Iraq will pay a price. “Northern Iraq knows that its only regional ally is Turkey,” he said.
Since 2014, Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan have had an energy agreement that allows the pumping of hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil via a route controlled by the KRG.
Filiz Katman, an international relations professor at Istanbul Aydin University, said the referendum will harm relations between Turkey and the KRG that have benefited both sides. Bilateral trade amounts to $8.5 billion, with huge energy projects in the pipeline.
“The red line in Turkey’s policy is the preservation of Iraq’s territorial integrity,” Katman told Arab News, adding that Ankara is using the energy card as leverage.
“Turkey plays a key role in exporting oil through the Ceyhan pipelines to international markets.”
Cahit Armagan Dilek, director of the 21st Century Turkey Institute, said Ankara fears that the referendum could have a domino effect in Syria and then in Turkey.
“Another concern is that following the referendum, Kurds and Arabs in Iraq might begin fighting each other,” Dilek told Arab News, adding that Kurdish independence or conflict in northern Iraq could seriously undermine oil revenues.
“Although the central government in Bagdad may find a way out through maritime routes, the only outlet for the Kurds to sell oil is through Turkey.”
Dilek said the principal actor determining events in northern Iraq is the US, which objects to the referendum.
Given that the KRG is adamant on holding the referendum, “the wisest solution for the US is to allow it to go ahead, but the KRG should then wait for the anti-Daesh struggle to succeed before implementing the referendum result,” Dilek added.
Bilgay Duman, an expert from the Ankara-based think tank ORSAM, said Ankara will take necessary measures ahead of the referendum.
“Although Turkey won’t prevent the transit of humanitarian goods, it might consider closing the main Habur border crossing with Iraq, which means many KRG resources will be hindered,” Duman told Arab News, adding that Ankara might also halt, then close, the pipeline carrying KRG oil through Turkey.
“Turkey’s foreign policy priority is to maintain Iraqi territorial integrity and political unity,” he said.
Ankara will not intervene militarily if it does not feel an immediate threat, Duman said. It will instead strengthen ties with Iraq’s central government and Turkmens, and cooperate further with likeminded countries, he added.
Kurdish independence referendum in Iraq to undermine regional stability: Turkey
Kurdish independence referendum in Iraq to undermine regional stability: Turkey
Israel military says three projectiles fired from north Gaza
JERUSALEM: The Israeli military said it identified three projectiles fired from the northern Gaza Strip that crossed into Israel on Monday, the latest in a series of launches from the war-ravaged Palestinian territory.
“One projectile was intercepted by the IAF (air force), one fell in Sderot and another projectile fell in an open area. No injuries were reported,” the military said in a statement.
Sudan army air strike kills 10 in southern Khartoum: rescuers
- Strike targeted a market area of the capital’s Southern Belt ‘for the third time in less than a month’
- War between Sudan’s regular army and the paramilitary forces has killed tens of thousands of people
PORT SUDAN, Sudan: Ten Sudanese civilians were killed and over 30 wounded in an army air strike on southern Khartoum, volunteer rescue workers said.
The strike on Sunday targeted a market area of the capital’s Southern Belt “for the third time in less than a month,” said the local Emergency Response Room (ERR), part of a network of volunteers across the country coordinating frontline aid.
The group said those killed burned to death. The wounded, suffering from burns, were taken to the local Bashair Hospital, with five of them in a critical condition.
Since April 2023, the war between Sudan’s regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has killed tens of thousands of people.
In the capital alone, the violence killed 26,000 people between April 2023 and June 2024, according to a report by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Khartoum has experienced some of the war’s worst violence, with entire neighborhoods emptied out and taken over by fighters.
The military, which maintains a monopoly on the skies with its jets, has not managed to wrest back control of the capital from the paramilitary.
Of the 11.5 million people currently displaced within Sudan, nearly a third have fled from the capital, according to United Nations figures.
Both the RSF and the army have been repeatedly accused of targeting civilians and indiscriminately shelling residential areas.
Israel says Hamas has not given ‘status of hostages’ it says ready to free
- A Hamas official gave a list of 34 hostages the group was ready to free
JERUSALEM: Israel said on Monday that Hamas had so far not provided the status of the 34 hostages the group declared it was ready to release in the first phase of a potential exchange deal.
“As yet, Israel has not received any confirmation or comment by Hamas regarding the status of the hostages appearing on the list,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement after a Hamas official gave a list of 34 hostages the group was ready to free in the first phase.
Shooting attack on a bus carrying Israelis in the occupied West Bank kills 3
- The attack occurred in the Palestinian village of Al-Funduq, on one of the main east-west roads crossing the territory
JERUSALEM: A shooting attack on a bus carrying Israelis in the occupied West Bank killed at least three people and wounded seven others on Monday, Israeli medics said.
Israel’s Magen David Adom rescue service said those killed included two women in their 60s and a man in his 40s.
Violence has surged in the West Bank since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack out of Gaza ignited the ongoing war there.
The attack occurred in the Palestinian village of Al-Funduq, on one of the main east-west roads crossing the territory. The identities of the attackers and those killed were not immediately known. The military said it was looking for the attackers, who fled.
Palestinians have carried out scores of shooting, stabbing and car-ramming attacks against Israelis in recent years. Israel has launched near-nightly military raids across the territory that frequently trigger gunbattle with militants.
The Palestinian Health Ministry says at least 835 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire in the West Bank since the start of the war in Gaza.
Israel captured the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem in the 1967 Mideast war, and the Palestinians want all three territories for their future state.
Some 3 million Palestinians live in the West Bank under seemingly open-ended Israeli military rule, with the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority administering population centers. Over 500,000 Israeli settlers live in scores of settlements, which most of the international community considers illegal.
Meanwhile, the war in Gaza is raging with no end in sight, though there has reportedly been recent progress in long-running talks aimed at a ceasefire and hostage release.
The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed across the border in a massive surprise attack nearly 15 months ago, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting around 250. Some 100 hostages are still inside Gaza, at least a third of whom are believed to be dead.
Israel’s air and ground offensive has killed over 45,800 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health authorities, who say women and children make up more than half of those killed. They do not say how many of the dead were militants. The Israeli military says it has killed over 17,000 fighters, without providing evidence.
The war has destroyed vast areas of Gaza and displaced 90 percent of the territory’s population of 2.3 million, often multiple times. Hundreds of thousands are enduring a cold, rainy winter in tent camps along the windy coast. At least seven infants have died of hypothermia because of the harsh conditions, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.
Aid groups say Israeli restrictions, ongoing fighting and the breakdown of law and order in many areas make it difficult to provide desperately needed food and other assistance.
