ANKARA: Regional actors are concerned about the referendum on Iraqi Kurdish independence, scheduled for Sept. 25.
The US, requesting a postponement, has voiced concerns that the referendum will hinder the war against Daesh. Turkey says the vote will violate Iraq’s constitution and further undermine regional stability.
Ankara has called the decision to hold a referendum a “serious mistake.” Presidency spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said Turkey perceives the vote as a “wrong step” that will not resolve any of Iraq’s problems.
Turkey’s Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag on Tuesday emphasized Ankara’s concerns, which are shared by its neighbors.
Iran’s Chief of Staff Mohammad Baqeri visited Ankara to discuss with his Turkish counterpart Gen. Hulusi Akar the referendum and its regional repercussions. Iran and Turkey have long been fighting their own Kurdish separatists.
With the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia gaining territory in northern Syria, Ankara fears that events could spiral out of its control and result in another Kurdish entity on its border.
The referendum will have consequences for energy cooperation between Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq, especially in terms of oil.
For Ankara, promoting regional stability and deterring Kurdish separatism mean securing energy flows.
Last week, Turkish Energy Minister Berat Albayrak said if the KRG insists on holding the referendum, northern Iraq will pay a price. “Northern Iraq knows that its only regional ally is Turkey,” he said.
Since 2014, Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan have had an energy agreement that allows the pumping of hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil via a route controlled by the KRG.
Filiz Katman, an international relations professor at Istanbul Aydin University, said the referendum will harm relations between Turkey and the KRG that have benefited both sides. Bilateral trade amounts to $8.5 billion, with huge energy projects in the pipeline.
“The red line in Turkey’s policy is the preservation of Iraq’s territorial integrity,” Katman told Arab News, adding that Ankara is using the energy card as leverage.
“Turkey plays a key role in exporting oil through the Ceyhan pipelines to international markets.”
Cahit Armagan Dilek, director of the 21st Century Turkey Institute, said Ankara fears that the referendum could have a domino effect in Syria and then in Turkey.
“Another concern is that following the referendum, Kurds and Arabs in Iraq might begin fighting each other,” Dilek told Arab News, adding that Kurdish independence or conflict in northern Iraq could seriously undermine oil revenues.
“Although the central government in Bagdad may find a way out through maritime routes, the only outlet for the Kurds to sell oil is through Turkey.”
Dilek said the principal actor determining events in northern Iraq is the US, which objects to the referendum.
Given that the KRG is adamant on holding the referendum, “the wisest solution for the US is to allow it to go ahead, but the KRG should then wait for the anti-Daesh struggle to succeed before implementing the referendum result,” Dilek added.
Bilgay Duman, an expert from the Ankara-based think tank ORSAM, said Ankara will take necessary measures ahead of the referendum.
“Although Turkey won’t prevent the transit of humanitarian goods, it might consider closing the main Habur border crossing with Iraq, which means many KRG resources will be hindered,” Duman told Arab News, adding that Ankara might also halt, then close, the pipeline carrying KRG oil through Turkey.
“Turkey’s foreign policy priority is to maintain Iraqi territorial integrity and political unity,” he said.
Ankara will not intervene militarily if it does not feel an immediate threat, Duman said. It will instead strengthen ties with Iraq’s central government and Turkmens, and cooperate further with likeminded countries, he added.