LONDON: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) output has fallen this month by 170,000 barrels per day (bpd) from a 2017 high, a Reuters survey found, as renewed unrest cut supplies in Libya and other members stepped up compliance with a production-cutting deal.
A dip in supply from top two producers Saudi Arabia and Iraq helped to boost OPEC’s adherence to its output curbs to 89 percent, up 5 percentage points from July but still short of the levels above 90 percent achieved earlier in the year.
The decline from Libya, and the lack of a further sizeable increase from Nigeria, will ease concerns that extra barrels from the two nations could swamp cutbacks made elsewhere. Libya and Nigeria were exempt from the cuts because conflict had curbed their production.
“Libya’s production has dropped by more than 350,000 bpd this past week,” said Ole Hansen, a commodities analyst at Saxo Bank.
As part of a deal with Russia and other non-members, the OPEC is reducing output by about 1.2 million bpd from Jan. 1, 2017 until March next year.
High compliance and much-reduced output in the exempt countries pushed supply lower in early 2017. But extra Libyan and Nigerian production, and slipping adherence in some countries, prompted output to rise to a 2017 high last month.
To address this, ministers at a July 24 meeting moved to cap Nigerian output, although they stopped short of asking Libya to join the supply-cutting deal, and called on several members to boost compliance.
August’s biggest drop came from Libya, where output slipped to an average of 900,000 bpd as unrest forced the shutdown of the country’s largest oilfield, Sharara, plus other sites, putting a supply recovery on hold for now.
Top exporter Saudi Arabia trimmed supply because of lower exports, although this was offset by more crude use at home and exports rose in the latter part of the month. Saudi power plants burn more crude in the hot summer months for electricity to keep the population cool.
“There have been strong exports in the last couple of days. We could potentially see exports only slightly down versus July,” said an industry source who tracks Saudi output.
Iraqi supply came in slightly lower than July because of a dip in exports from the south and north of the country — although Baghdad still has some way to go to match the compliance levels of other large producers.
Among countries with higher output, Angola exported more cargoes than in July and supply in Nigeria edged higher as Shell’s Nigerian venture lifted a force majeure on Bonny Light crude exports.
OPEC announced a production target of 32.50 million bpd last year, which was based on low figures for Libya and Nigeria. The target includes Indonesia, which has since left OPEC, and does not include Equatorial Guinea, the latest country to join OPEC.
According to the survey, output in August has averaged 32.68 million bpd, about 930,000 bpd above the target adjusted to remove Indonesia and not including Equatorial Guinea.
With Equatorial Guinea added, total OPEC production in July totalled 32.83 million bpd, a drop of 170,000 bpd from July.
The Reuters survey is based on shipping data provided by external sources, Thomson Reuters flows data, and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consulting firms.
— Reuters
OPEC oil output slips from 2017 high on renewed Libyan outages
OPEC oil output slips from 2017 high on renewed Libyan outages
Saudi Arabia invites applications for exploration permits in Riyadh, Madinah regions
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has opened applications for pre-qualification for mining exploration licenses across three mineral-rich belts in the Riyadh and Madinah regions, covering nearly 50 percent of the total area.
This initiative spans 24,946 sq. km. and is part of the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources’ broader plan to offer exploration licenses for over 50,000 sq. km. in 2025, following an announcement made at the 4th International Mining Conference in January.
The ministry is inviting both local and international exploration companies to compete for these licenses, aiming to accelerate mineral exploration and development.
This move is expected to harness Saudi Arabia’s mineral wealth, estimated at SR9.3 trillion, and strengthen value-added mineral supply chains to support economic diversification, according to a ministry post on X.
The targeted mineralized belts include Nuqrah and Sukhaybrah Al-Safra in the Madinah region, as well as Nabitah in Riyadh. These areas are rich in resources like gold, copper, silver, zinc, and nickel, presenting substantial investment opportunities.
The pre-qualification application deadline for exploration licenses is set for May. To ensure transparency, geological and technical data for these sites are available on the Tadeen platform, providing investors with insights from previous licenses and geological surveys conducted by the Saudi Geological Survey Authority.
In line with efforts to streamline the licensing process, the ministry has designed this year’s mining exploration competition to be fully automated, transparent, and fair.
The process will consist of three key phases: the pre-qualification phase, which evaluates the technical capabilities of applicants; the site selection and bidding phase; and the final award and licensing phase. The pre-qualification phase began in January during the International Mining Conference and will continue until early May.
The ministry has ensured that all essential geological and technical data is accessible on Tadeen, ensuring a level playing field for all competitors, as reported by the Saudi Press Agency.
This initiative is expected to drive exploration spending, enhance the national geological database, generate new jobs, and contribute to sustainable economic growth. It also aligns with Saudi Arabia’s commitment to developing the mining sector in line with global best practices, with a focus on environmental sustainability and social responsibility.
In a related move, the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources, in collaboration with the Ministry of Investment, launched the second phase of the Mining Exploration Empowerment Program in January.
This initiative offers financial support of up to SR7.5 million per project to companies with valid exploration licenses that have been held for less than five years, according to SPA.
The program is designed to reduce risks for early-stage exploration companies, encourage investment in the mining sector, and complement existing incentives under the Mining Investment Law, which allows 100 percent foreign ownership and provides financing of up to 75 percent of capital costs through the Industrial Development Fund.
Saudi Arabia has allocated over 10,000 sq. km. for mining exploration in recent years. The upcoming 50,000 sq. km. for 2025 further underscores the Kingdom’s commitment to fostering a transparent and attractive investment environment, as reported by SPA.
This initiative plays a key role in the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, which seeks to position mining as a vital pillar of economic diversification and a driver of sustainable growth.
Egypt secures $1.2bn IMF disbursement amid reforms
- Cairo tackles fiscal hurdles with strategic reforms, international support
RIYADH: Egypt has secured a $1.2 billion disbursement from the International Monetary Fund following the completion of the fourth review of its economic reform program.
This disbursement, approved by the IMF’s Executive Board under the Extended Fund Facility, brings Egypt’s total funding under the program to approximately $3.2 billion.
In addition, the IMF has approved a $1.3 billion arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility to support Egypt’s climate-related reforms.
The 46-month EFF arrangement, which was initially approved in December 2022, is designed to promote macroeconomic stability and drive structural reforms to support sustainable growth. The IMF has acknowledged Egypt’s progress in stabilizing its economy, despite external challenges such as regional conflicts and trade disruptions.
“Since March 2024, the authorities have made considerable progress in stabilizing the economy and rebuilding market confidence despite a challenging external environment,” said Nigel Clarke, deputy managing director and chair of the IMF executive board.
Macroeconomic indicators show a mixed recovery for Egypt. Gross domestic product growth, which slowed to 2.4 percent in the fiscal year 2023-24 from 3.8 percent the previous year, rebounded to 3.5 percent in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2024-25.
Inflation, which had surged in recent years, has been gradually moderating since September 2023, alleviating some pressure on household incomes.
Meanwhile, the government achieved a primary fiscal surplus of 2.5 percent of GDP in 2023-24, marking a one-percentage-point improvement from the previous year. This was primarily driven by expenditure controls, which helped offset weaker domestic revenue performance.
Despite several improvements, Egypt continues to face significant fiscal challenges, including high debt levels and substantial financing needs. The country’s current account deficit widened to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2023-24, largely due to a $6 billion drop in Suez Canal receipts in 2024, caused by trade disruptions in the Red Sea.
However, remittances from Egyptian workers abroad and strong tourism revenues have provided crucial foreign exchange inflows.
To ensure fiscal sustainability, the IMF has recommended that Egypt expand its tax base, streamline tax incentives, and improve compliance. As IMF spokesperson Clarke noted, “Broadening the tax base, streamlining tax incentives, and enhancing compliance are essential to creating fiscal space for priority development and social needs.”
Additionally, the IMF stressed the importance of a comprehensive debt management strategy, which includes deepening the domestic debt market and enhancing fiscal transparency, particularly concerning off-budget entities.
In response to external challenges, the Egyptian government has adjusted its medium-term fiscal targets.
OPEC upholds global demand projections, reports output boost
RIYADH: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reiterated its forecast for robust global oil demand growth in 2025, citing strong support from air and road travel.
In its monthly report released on Wednesday, OPEC projected that global oil demand will rise by 1.45 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 1.43 million bpd in 2026, with both forecasts remaining unchanged from the previous month.
OPEC noted that while trade concerns are expected to introduce volatility as new trade policies are rolled out, the global economy is expected to adapt.
In the same report, OPEC revealed that the broader OPEC+ group increased production by 363,000 bpd in February, with a significant boost coming from Kazakhstan, which has struggled to meet its OPEC+ output targets.
According to OPEC’s data, Kazakhstan’s production increased to 1.767 million bpd in February, up from 1.570 million bpd in January.
Although Kazakhstan has pledged to cut its output and compensate for overproduction, it has ramped up production at the Chevron-operated Tengiz oilfield, the country’s largest.
Meanwhile, Russia’s crude oil output slightly decreased by 0.04 percent to 8.973 million bpd in February, from 8.977 million bpd in January.
This was marginally below Russia's production target of 8.98 million bpd under the OPEC+ agreement. Russia’s quota is expected to rise to 9.004 million bpd starting in April as part of OPEC+'s planned gradual output increase.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced last week that OPEC+ had agreed to begin raising oil production in April, though this decision could be reversed if market imbalances arise.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index continues to decline on third consecutive day
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index continued its downward trend for the third consecutive day on Wednesday as it shed 13.03 points or 0.11 percent to close at 11,704.93.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR5.42 billion ($1.44 billion), with 155 stocks advancing and 83 declining.
The MSCI Tadawul index also declined by 0.43 percent to 1,476.91.
However, Saudi Arabia’s parallel market Nomu increased 410.19 points to close at 31,173.41.
The best-performing stock on the main market was Al-Baha Investment and Development Co. The company’s share price increased by 8.33 percent to SR0.39.
The share price of Al-Babtain Power and Telecommunication Co. also rose by 7.08 percent to SR41.60.
ARTEX Industrial Investment Co. also saw its stock price rising by 6.54 percent to SR14.
Conversely, the share price of Saudi Industrial Investment Group declined by 3.96 percent to SR15.02.
On the announcements front, Arabian Drilling Co. said that its net profit for 2024 reached SR321.3 million, representing a decline of 46.85 percent compared to 2023.
In a Tadawul statement, the company said that the decrease in net profit was mainly due to start up cost of the new unconventional rigs, as well as higher net finance expenses and depreciation costs, partially offset by higher revenue.
The share price of the company edged down by 0.54 percent to SR91.40.
Savola Group said that its net profit witnessed a surge of 1009.2 percent year on year to reach SR9.97 billion.
This was primarily driven by the distribution of its 34.52 percent stake in Almarai to shareholders, resulting in a net gain of SR11.3 billion.
The retail segment also contributed to the profit surge, with net earnings climbing from SR47 million in 2023 to SR154 million in 2024. This growth was fueled by the positive impact of the CXR program and an expanded store network.
The share price of the company closed on SR32.70, decreasing 3.54 percent, as it was the second worst performer of the day.
Theeb Rent a Car Co. said that the firm’s net profit for 2024 stood at SR182.7 million, representing an increase of 28.6 percent compared to 2023.
In a Tadawul statement, the company revealed that its net profit increased due to the improved utilization rate of short and long-term rental segments.
This is in addition to the reduction of certain operational costs items, alongside with the increase in total revenues by 14.73 percent reached SR2.34 billion in 2024, marking a year on year rise of 4.01 percent.
Theeb Rent a Car Co.’s share price increased by 4 percent to SR73.
AlSaif Stores for Development and Investment Co. also revealed its net profit decrease by 61.7 percent, reaching SR37.53 million.
The decrease was due to an increase in the cost of goods sold, the impact of exceptional offers and an increase in financing interest expenses.
Its share price edged up by 1.05 percent to SR7.60.
Giga-projects spark $1.22bn boom in Saudi real estate market
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s residential real estate market is set for a significant surge, with private buyers expected to invest SR4.58 billion ($1.22 billion) this year, according to an analysis.
The Saudi Report 2025 by global property consultancy firm Knight Frank, conducted in collaboration with YouGov, highlights that investors are willing to pay substantial premiums for homes within the Kingdom’s mega-development projects.
The study, which surveyed 1,037 households, including 100 expatriates based in Saudi Arabia, found that SR2.75 billion of potential private capital, including SR2.62 billion from Saudi nationals and SR133.7 million from expatriates, is ready to be deployed into the Kingdom’s giga-projects.
NEOM has emerged as the most sought-after destination, with 41 percent of respondents earning over SR80,000 per month expressing an intent to spend more than SR20 million on homes in such large-scale developments.
The findings underscore the growing demand for premium residential offerings in these transformative projects, which align with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic diversification agenda.
“While NEOM continues to take pole position in the hearts and minds of Saudi nationals as a location they would like to live in, its popularity has decreased from 84 percent in 2023 to 17 percent this year,” Faisal Durrani, partner and head of research for MENA at Knight Frank, said.
He continued: “There are likely to be a range of reasons for this, including the emergence of other giga-projects over the last two years, perceptions around households’ ability to afford to own a home in any of NEOM’s subprojects, a lack of ready-to-move-into homes, a lack of homes actually on the market to purchase, or a combination of the above. These factors present a clear blueprint for how NEOM’s developers can boost absorption rates once homes are made available to purchase.”
According to Knight Frank, NEOM was found to be the most desirable giga-project among Saudi nationals, although those on monthly incomes of SR10,000 to SR50,000 showed a higher level of interest in living in the Belgium-sized super-city than those with incomes in excess of SR50,000.
For the latter group, Jeddah Central had greater appeal, representing 14 percent, with NEOM following in second place.
While expats with a monthly income of over SR30,000 also favor NEOM as their most preferred location to own a home, it is notable that 20 percent of all the expats surveyed have no desire to purchase residential real estate in any of the giga-projects.
“The relatively low appetite among expats to purchase a home in any of the giga-projects likely stems from a lack of understanding of what will eventually be available, a lack of proof of concept, difficulty in navigating expat ownership rules, financing challenges, or indeed a combination of the above,” Susan Amawi, general manager at Knight Frank Saudi Arabia said.
She added: “We expect this to change over time, especially once details of the much-anticipated change to foreign ownership laws are unveiled.”
NEOM has awarded construction contracts worth $28.7 billion as of early 2025, with $100 million allocated to Magna and an additional $10.5 billion for The Line, according to an analysis by Knight Frank.
Saudi nationals and expatriates earning SR10,000 to SR20,000 per month showed the highest level of interest, followed by those with incomes between SR20,000 and SR30,000.
Meanwhile, 29 percent of respondents earning SR40,000 to SR50,000 also expressed a desire to buy a home in The Line.
However, Durrani noted a shift in preferences among higher-income groups.
“The apparent tapering in the desirability of The Line as a place to live and own a home as incomes grow could be a reflection of the perception of The Line as a ‘mass-market project,’ with those on higher incomes perhaps in favour of somewhere more exclusive,” he explained.
Durrani added: “Indeed, our results have shown that the largest proportion of those on monthly incomes of between SR70,000 and 80,000 would prefer to own a home at the Red Sea Project and King Salman Park. For this group, NEOM overall trails at just 5 percent.”
Saudi Arabia’s leading residential developer, ROSHN, has also emerged as a key player in the Kingdom’s giga-projects.
According to Knight Frank, ROSHN’s SEDRA development in Riyadh is the most sought-after project, with 39 percent of respondents selecting it as their top choice.
ROSHN’s focus on affordable homes in integrated community settings has played a pivotal role in its widespread appeal.
Other highly sought-after ROSHN developments include Warefa in Riyadh and Marafy in Jeddah.
Tariq de Jong, regional head of residential research at Knight Frank, emphasized ROSHN’s rising prominence among Saudi homebuyers.
“Away from NEOM, Saudi nationals and Saudi-based expats are actively targeting projects by ROSHN, which ranks alongside Jeddah Central as the second most popular giga project home purchase location,” Harmen de Jong, partner and regional head of Strategy & Consulting for Saudi Arabia at Knight Frank, said.
He concluded: “ROSHN has positioned itself as the Kingdom’s leading residential community developer and is working toward setting new benchmarks in creating integrated neighborhoods that blend modern living with traditional Saudi heritage, all crucially anchored by community facilities and amenities which are in high demand and in short supply.”
