BAGHDAD: Facing a string of defeats in Syria and Iraq, Daesh is being forced to retreat to the desert from which it emerged three years ago.
By the end of 2014, the group born in Iraq held one third of the oil-rich country and large swathes of territory in neighboring Syria.
But today it has lost 90 percent of its territory in Iraq, including the city of Mosul, while in Syria a US-backed alliance of Kurdish and Arab fighters has captured over 60 percent of its one-time bastion of Raqqa. Syrian government troops meanwhile are eating away at the last province under militant control, Deir Ezzor.
At one time, the group held around half of Syria, much of it uninhabited desert, but today it controls just 15 percent, according to Syria specialist Fabrice Balanche.
Kurdish forces hold around 23 percent, according to Balanche.
In Iraq and Syria, Daesh’s governance project (is) compromised, but I don’t see Daesh completely defeated, said Ludovico Carlino, a senior analyst at IHS Markit Country Risk.
“From a narrative/propaganda perspective, losing Raqqa will have surely big implications,” particularly after the fall of Mosul, he said.
But he said the Euphrates River Valley, an area of desert stretching from Deir Ezzor province in eastern Syria to Al-Qaim in western Iraq “from a strategic perspective... is much more important.”
Commanders in the US-led coalition against Daesh estimate between 5,000 and 10,000 militant fighters and commanders have already fled Raqqa to the area.
Daesh faces attack from several fronts and forces in the area, including the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Syria’s army backed by Russia, and Iraq’s army.
The militants have begun to dig tunnels, plant explosive devices and prepare vehicle bombs, according to the US-led coalition. “The loss of Raqqa is already happening. It is the complete recapture of Deir Ezzor by the Syrian army that will be the real turning point,” said Balanche.
Inside Daesh-held parts of the province, that possibility has created new restrictions and tension, according to activists.
“They’ve built military barriers in each neighborhood and alleyway.They’ve mined the administrative borders to the cities,” said Omar Abu Leila, an activist from Deir Ezzor 24, which publishes news on the city.
As the prospect of Daesh being driven completely from Syria and Iraq nears, attention is turning to what might follow, and in particular the question of relations between minority and majority groups in the two countries.
The SDF has brought together Kurdish and Arab fighters, but it remains to be seen whether the alliance will withstand Kurdish dreams of federalism.
And it is unclear whether Syrian regime will allow other forces to control parts of the country it has spent six years trying to clear of rebels and militants.
In Deir Ezzor, civilians in Daesh-held territory face shortages of food, water and electricity, and are increasingly afraid as the battle approaches, said Abu Leila.
They also fear revenge attacks by government forces or allies, he said.
Daesh mined ethnic and sectarian divisions in both Syria and Iraq to recruit members to its cause, and experts warned the group would profit in the absence of real efforts at reconciliation. And the group will not disappear entirely, said Balanche. Daesh “will return to the underground. It will carry out terrorist attacks,” he said.
After string of defeats, Daesh faces retreat to the desert
After string of defeats, Daesh faces retreat to the desert
Israeli strikes on Gaza Strip leave 15 dead, medics say
CAIRO: Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip killed 15 people on Wednesday, some of them in a school housing displaced people, medics in Gaza said, adding that the fatalities included two sons of a former Hamas spokesman.
Health officials in the Hamas-run enclave said eight Palestinians were killed and dozens of others wounded in an Israeli strike that hit the Al-Tabeaeen School, which was sheltering displaced families in Gaza City. Among those killed were two sons of former Hamas spokesman, Fawzi Barhoum, according to medics and Barhoum himself.
In the Shejaia suburb of Gaza City, another strike killed four people, while three people were killed in an Israeli air strike in Beit Lahiya on the northern edge of the enclave where army forces have been operating since last month.
Separately, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah came into effect on Wednesday after both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the US and France, a rare victory for diplomacy in a region shaken by two wars for over a year.
Iran-backed Hezbollah militants began firing missiles at Israel in solidarity with Hamas after the Palestinian militant group attacked Israel in October of 2023, killing around 1,200 people and capturing over 250 hostages, Israel has said, triggering the Gaza war.
Israel’s 13-month campaign in Gaza has left nearly 44,200 people dead and displaced nearly all the enclave’s population at least once, according to Gaza health officials.
Months of attempts to negotiate a ceasefire have yielded scant progress and negotiations are now on hold, with mediator Qatar saying it has told the two warring parties it would suspend its efforts until the sides are prepared to make concessions.
US President Joe Biden said on Tuesday his administration was pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza and that it was possible that Saudi Arabia and Israel could normalize relations.
Israeli military says it fired to stop suspects reaching Lebanon no-go zone
DUBAI: Israeli forces on Wednesday fired at several vehicles with suspects to prevent them from reaching a no-go zone in Lebanese territory and the suspects moved away, the Israeli military said in a statement, hours after a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah came into effect at 0200 GMT.
Hezbollah says launched drones ahead of ceasefire at ‘sensitive military targets’ in Tel Aviv
BEIRUT, Lebanon: Lebanon’s Hezbollah said it launched drones at “sensitive military targets” in Tel Aviv on Tuesday evening, after deadly Israeli strikes in Beirut and as news of a ceasefire deal was announced.
“In response to the targeting of the capital Beirut and the massacres committed by the Israeli enemy against civilians,” Hezbollah launched “drones at a group of sensitive military targets in the city of Tel Aviv and its suburbs,” the group said in a statement.
What does the US-brokered truce ending Israel-Hezbollah fighting include?
- The Lebanese army would deploy troops to south of the Litani to have around 5,000 soldiers there, including at 33 posts along the border with Israel, a Lebanese security source told Reuters
BEIRUT: Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah are set to implement a ceasefire early on Wednesday as part of a US-proposed deal for a 60-day truce to end more than a year of hostilities.
The text of the deal has not been published and Reuters has not seen a draft.
US President Joe Biden announced the deal, saying it was designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities. Israel’s security cabinet has approved it and it will be put to the whole cabinet for review. Lebanon Prime Minister Najib Mikati welcomed the deal, which Hezbollah approved last week.
The agreement, negotiated by US mediator Amos Hochstein, is five pages long and includes 13 sections, according to a senior Lebanese political source with direct knowledge of the matter.
Here is a summary of its key provisions.
HALT TO HOSTILITIES
The halt to hostilities is set to begin at 4 a.m local time (0200 GMT) on Wednesday, Biden announced, with both sides expected to cease fire by Wednesday morning.
The senior Lebanese source said Israel was expected to “stop carrying out any military operations against Lebanese territory, including against civilian and military targets, and Lebanese state institutions, through land, sea and air.”
All armed groups in Lebanon — meaning Hezbollah and its allies — would halt operations against Israel, the source said.
ISRAELI TROOPS WITHDRAW
Two Israeli officials said the Israeli military would withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days. Biden said the troops would gradually pull out and civilians on both sides would be able to return home.
Lebanon had earlier pushed for Israeli troops to withdraw as quickly as possible within the truce period, Lebanese officials told Reuters. They now expect Israeli troops to withdraw within the first month, the senior Lebanese political source said.
A Lebanese official told Reuters the deal included language that preserved both Lebanon’s and Israel’s rights to self-defense.
HEZBOLLAH PULLS NORTH, LEBANESE ARMY DEPLOYS
Hezbollah fighters will leave their positions in southern Lebanon to move north of the Litani River, which runs about 30 kilometers (20 miles) north of the border with Israel.
Their withdrawal will not be public, the senior Lebanese political source said. He said the group’s military facilities “will be dismantled” but it was not immediately clear whether the group would take them apart itself, or whether the fighters would take their weapons with them as they withdrew.
The Lebanese army would deploy troops to south of the Litani to have around 5,000 soldiers there, including at 33 posts along the border with Israel, a Lebanese security source told Reuters.
“The deployment is the first challenge — then how to deal with the locals that want to return home,” given the risks of unexploded ordnance, the source said.
More than 1.2 million people have been displaced by Israeli strikes on Lebanon, many of them from south Lebanon. Hezbollah sees the return of the displaced to their homes as a priority, Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah told Reuters.
Tens of thousands displaced from northern Israel are also expected to return home.
MONITORING MECHANISM
One of the sticking points in the final days leading to the ceasefire’s conclusion was how it would be monitored, Lebanon’s deputy speaker of parliament Elias Bou Saab told Reuters.
A pre-existing tripartite mechanism between the United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon (UNIFIL), the Lebanese army and the Israeli army would be expanded to include the US and France, with the US chairing the group, Bou Saab said.
Israel would be expected to flag possible breaches to the monitoring mechanism, and France and the US together would determine whether a violation had taken place, an Israeli official and a Western diplomat told Reuters.
A joint statement by Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron said France and the US would work together to ensure the deal is applied fully.
UNILATERAL ISRAELI STRIKES
Israeli officials have insisted that the Israeli army would continue to strike Hezbollah if it identified threats to its security, including transfers of weapons and military equipment to the group.
An Israeli official told Reuters that US envoy Amos Hochstein, who negotiated the agreement, had given assurances directly to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel could carry out such strikes on Lebanon.
Netanyahu said in a televised address after the security cabinet met that Israel would strike Hezbollah if it violated the deal.
The official said Israel would use drones to monitor movements on the ground in Lebanon.
Lebanese officials say that provision is not in the deal that it agreed, and that it would oppose any violations of its sovereignty.
Israeli strikes hit north Lebanon crossings with Syria for first time, minister says
- Syria says 6 killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon border crossings
BEIRUT: Israeli strikes late on Tuesday targeted Lebanon’s three northern border crossings with Syria for the first time, Lebanon’s transport minister Ali Hamieh told Reuters.
The strikes came moments after US President Joe Biden announced that a ceasefire would come into effect at 4:00 a.m. local time (0200 GMT) on Wednesday to halt hostilities between Lebanese armed group Hezbollah and Israel.
Hamieh said it was not immediately clear whether the roads had been cut off as a result of the strikes. Israeli raids on Lebanon’s eastern crossings in recent weeks had already sealed off those routes into Syria.
Syria’s state news agency reported four civilians and two soldiers were killed, and 12 people were wounded including children, women and workers in the Syrian Red Crescent.
The Red Crescent said earlier a volunteer was killed and another was injured in “the aggression that targeted Al-Dabousyeh and Al-Arida crossings ... as they were performing their humanitarian duty of rescuing the wounded early on Wednesday.”
The strike damaged several ambulances and work points, it added in a statement.
Syrian state TV reported the Israeli strike hit the Arida and Dabousieh border crossings with Lebanon.
The Israeli military did not immediately comment. It has previously stated that it targets what it says are Iran-linked sites in Syria as part of a broader campaign to curb the influence of Iran and its ally Hezbollah in the region.
Separately, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Tuesday that it struck an Iranian-aligned militia weapons storage facility in Syria in response to an Iranian-aligned attack against US forces in the country on Monday.
