SULAIMANIYA, IRAQ: On the eve of an independence referendum in Iraq’s Kurdistan region, one man is campaigning against a “Yes” vote which he fears could stoke tension in the Middle East.
With the 5 million Kurds in Iraq who are eligible to vote united by dreams of statehood, the outcome of the Sept. 25 referendum in the autonomous region in northern Iraq is in no doubt.
But with Baghdad making clear it opposes independence for a region that has abundant oil reserves, some voters fear now is not the time to start moves to break away from Iraq — and rich businessman Shaswar Abdulwahid Qadir has taken up their cause.
Despite being branded a traitor by political enemies, he has taken on the establishment by launching a “No for now” campaign to explain the economic and political risks of a “Yes” vote.
“A ‘No’ vote is better for our people, better for Kurdistan’s future,” the 39-year-old businessman told Reuters after a rally on Saturday in a soccer stadium in Sulaimaniya, Iraqi Kurdistan’s second largest city.
Warning against the consequences of an independence declaration, he said: “It will bring to our people an unstable situation after the referendum.”
Qadir’s goal is not to resist independence forever. But he fears a “Yes” vote now would unleash the wrath of governments in Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria which could see it as a precedent that could encourage separatist-minded Kurds in those countries.
Iraq’s parliament voted on Tuesday to reject the referendum and authorized the prime minister to “take all measures” to preserve Iraq’s unity.
Western powers want a delay because they are worried the vote will derail cooperation between Iraq and the Kurds against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.
Dancers
Qadir is almost alone among Kurds in raising his voice openly against the “Yes” campaign led by President Masoud Barzani and his Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), which say independence would be preceded by dialogue with Baghdad.
But Qadir believes there are others who share his concerns.
At the rally in Sulaimaniya, Qadir was welcomed into the stadium by dancers in colorful traditional dress and by a crowd chanting his name.
But he delayed the start by an hour to allow the stadium he helped refurbish to fill up — and it never did. About 2,500 people attended, filling only about one third of the arena.
After he began speaking, a scuffle broke out when a man in the crowd tried to throw something at Qadir during his speech.
The businessman says he is undeterred by criticism and attacks which he says have affected his business.
“I’m ok with all of it, because I believe in another way for Kurdistan,” he said.
Critics say Qadir has used his media conglomerate to advance his agenda and the fortune he made through a business empire that includes real estate, television stations and a theme park make his life very different to those he says he represents.
Many Kurds have been hit by Baghdad’s decision to cut funding to Iraqi Kurdistan in 2014 in protest at its construction of a pipeline to export oil to Turkey.
Such actions by Baghdad have increased antagonism among the Kurds, who suffered under late Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, and increased their desire for independence — a desire uniting the about 30 million Kurds in Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey.
But interviews by Reuters in several cities in Iraqi Kurdistan showed that some voters are worried about the possible fallout of the referendum even though they favor independence.
Voters’ concerns
Some are worried it could embolden the entrenched elite in Iraqi Kurdistan, which has long been plagued by political disunity and where Barzani has been a powerful force for more than two decades and president since 2005.
“This referendum is not for the country, it’s for the dictators in power,” said Ahmed Nana, a 22-year-old barista at a coffee shop in Sulaimaniya. “We all want a passport, a nationality, we want a reason to be proud, to have our own country. But right now, this referendum is a sideshow to distract from our political problems.”
Parliament has not met since a coalition government broke up in 2015 and some factions support independence but not necessarily under Barzani’s leadership.
The regional government has called presidential and parliamentary elections for Nov. 1, but many Kurds doubt the voting will go ahead and the independence referendum has widened political divisions.
“Nothing has polarized Kurdish society as much as this vote,” said Bahra Saleh, an analyst at the American University of Iraq, Sulaimani.
Compounding the stalemate is the economic crisis triggered by Baghdad’s decision to cut funding and compounded by low oil prices and the conflict with Islamic State.
The region is billions of dollars in debt and public salaries have been steeply cut since 2014, particularly affecting civil servants, Peshmerga fighters and teachers.
Before holding the referendum, the regional government “needs to prepare the region economically for the region to sustain itself,” said Mohammad Tofiq Raheem, a leader of the Gorran party which was part of the coalition that ended in 2015.
The regional economy depends partly on Turkey’s goodwill to allow oil exports but also on trade with Iraq.
There is also a generational split. Older Kurds hope the long struggle for statehood, dating at least to the division of the Middle East by colonial powers after World War One, will now end but younger people are driven by more than nationalism.
“Independence is what we’ve been dreaming of for years,” the said Saleh, the analyst. “But not like this. In a way that makes sense, in a way that won’t risk civil war.”
Rich tycoon takes on Iraqi Kurdish leaders over independence
Rich tycoon takes on Iraqi Kurdish leaders over independence
Israeli court jails Palestinian WAFA journalist Rasha Herzallah for six months
- Herzallah detention extended five times before charge of “incitement on social media” was brought at Israeli Salem military court
LONDON: An Israeli military court sentenced on Sunday the Palestinian journalist Rasha Herzallah to six months in jail and issued a fine of 13,000 shekels ($3,300).
Herzallah, 39, was working for the official Palestine News and Information Agency (WAFA) at the time of her arrest last June, when she was summoned for an investigation at the Israeli Huwwara detention center north of the occupied West Bank.
Her detention was extended five times before a charge of “incitement on social media” was brought in court.
She is the sister of Muhammad Herzallah, who died from his wounds in November 2023 after being shot in the head by Israeli forces during a raid of Nablus city, WAFA reported.
Herzallah’s court hearing was held at the Israeli Salem military base near Jenin, her family told WAFA. She is expected to be released from prison on Dec. 1.
She is among 94 Palestinian journalists currently detained in Israeli jails since Oct. 7, 2023.
WAFA reported that four female journalists, including Herzallah, Rola Hassanin, Bushra Al-Tawil, and Amal Shujaiyah, a journalism student from Birzeit University, remain in Israeli detention.
Cultural experts urge UN to shield Lebanon’s heritage
- Lebanon’s cultural heritage at large is being endangered by recurrent assaults on ancient cities such as Baalbek, Tyre, and Anjar, all UNESCO world heritage sites, and other historic landmarks.
BEIRUT: Hundreds of cultural professionals, including archeologists and academics, called on the UN to safeguard war-torn Lebanon’s heritage in a petition published on Sunday before a crucial UNESCO meeting.
Several Israeli strikes in recent weeks on Baalbek in the east and Tyre in the south hit close to ancient Roman ruins designated as UNESCO World Heritage sites.
The petition, signed by 300 prominent cultural figures, was sent to UNESCO chief Audrey Azoulay a day before a special session in Paris to consider listing Lebanese cultural sites under “enhanced protection.”
It urges UNESCO to protect Baalbek and other heritage sites by establishing “no-target zones” around them, deploying international observers, and enforcing measures from the 1954 Hague Convention on cultural heritage in conflict.
“Lebanon’s cultural heritage at large is being endangered by recurrent assaults on ancient cities such as Baalbek, Tyre, and Anjar, all UNESCO world heritage sites, as well as other historic landmarks,” says the petition.
It calls on influential states to push for an end to military action that destroys or damages sites, as well as adding protections or introducing sanctions.
Change Lebanon, the charity behind the petition, said signatories included museum curators, academics, archeologists, and writers in Britain, France, Italy, and the US.
Enhanced protection status gives heritage sites “high-level immunity from military attacks,” according to UNESCO.
“Criminal prosecutions and sanctions, conducted by the competent authorities, may apply in cases where individuals do not respect the enhanced protection granted to a cultural property,” it said.
In Baalbek, Israeli strikes on Nov. 6 hit near the city’s Roman temples, according to authorities, destroying a heritage house dating back to the French mandate and damaging the historic site.
The region’s governor said “a missile fell in the car park” of a 1,000-year-old temple, the closest strike since the start of the war.
The ruins host the prestigious Baalbek Festival each year, a landmark event founded in 1956 and now a fixture on the international cultural scene, featuring performances by music legends like Oum Kalthoum, Charles Aznavour and Ella Fitzgerald.
Lebanon says Israeli strike on central Beirut kills two
- “Israeli warplanes launched a strike on the Mar Elias area,” the official National News Agency said of a densely packed residential and shopping district
BEIRUT: Lebanon said an Israeli strike on central Beirut’s Mar Elias district killed two people, the second such raid targeting the capital Sunday after an earlier strike killed a Hezbollah official.
Israel has been heavily bombing Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, since all-out war erupted on September 23, but attacks on central Beirut have been rarer.
“Israeli warplanes launched a strike on the Mar Elias area,” the official National News Agency said of a densely packed residential and shopping district that also houses people displaced by the conflict.
The health ministry said the strike killed two people and wounded 13, raising an earlier toll of one dead and nine wounded.
AFP journalists heard the sound of explosions and then sirens amid a strong acrid smell of burning. AFP images showed a blaze at the site that firefighters were trying to extinguish.
A Lebanese security source, requesting anonymity, told AFP that the strike hit an electronics store in Mar Elias, without providing further details.
The NNA said the strike “targeted a Jamaa Islamiya center,” referring to a Sunni Muslim group allied to Palestinian militant group Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
But Jamaa Islamiya lawmaker Imad Hout told AFP that “no center or institution affiliated with the group is located in the area targeted by the strike, and no member of the group was targeted.”
Earlier Sunday, a Lebanese security source said Hezbollah spokesman Mohammed Afif was killed in a strike on central Beirut’s Ras Al-Nabaa district.
Previous strikes claimed by Israel on Beirut’s southern suburbs have killed senior Hezbollah officials, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah in late September.
In the wake of Sunday’s strikes, the education minister said schools and higher education institutions in the Beirut area would remain closed for two days.
Netanyahu remains key obstacle to Middle East peace, says Israeli analyst
- 2002 Saudi Arabia Peace Plan seen as most viable framework for resolving Israeli-Palestinian conflict, achieving normalization between Israel and Arab world, Yossi Mekelberg argues
- He accuses Netanyahu of using wars in Gaza, Lebanon to delay his prosecution on corruption charges
Chicago, IL: Donald Trump’s re-election as US president could help bring peace between Palestinians and Israelis, but such progress would require a change in Israel’s leadership, said prominent Israeli analyst Yossi Mekelberg.
Speaking during an appearance on “The Ray Hanania Radio Show” Thursday, Mekelberg argued that while there is “wide-ranging” speculation about what the upcoming US president might do in his second term, the current Israeli administration needs to step down before peace can be achieved.
“In my opinion, Israel needs to change the government, full stop. I mean, for everyone’s sake,” said Mekelberg, who is a senior consulting fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House.
Mekelberg underscored the relevance of the 2002 Saudi Arabia Peace Plan, which offers normalization with Israel in exchange for a complete withdrawal from occupied territories and a resolution to the Palestinian issue. He described it as “the most viable option to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (in such a way) that both sides are satisfied.
“When we talk about normalization and we think about the UAE or Bahrain or Morocco, it was Saudi Arabia (that was) the first to offer this to put it on the table 22 years ago,” he said.
The Saudi initiative, first proposed at the 2002 Arab League Summit in Beirut and reaffirmed in 2007, has repeatedly been rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. The plan offered Israel full normalization with Arab states in exchange for a complete withdrawal from occupied territories, including the Gaza Strip, West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights.
“This has been on the table for more than 22 years. And I think this has always been the right approach,” Mekelberg argued. “We know that there were discussions about normalization over the (past) year or so before October 7th. There is no way in the world, if Israel refuses to make concessions on the Palestinian issues, that normalization will be back on the table.”
Before the outbreak of the Hamas-Israel conflict in October 2023, US-brokered normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel appeared within reach. Netanyahu himself referenced this possibility during his speech at the UN General Assembly in September 2023, claiming the region was on the cusp of a “dramatic breakthrough.” However, the escalation of violence in Gaza first and Lebanon after derailed those efforts.
At the recent Riyadh summit, both Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan reiterated that normalization with Israel would not be discussed without significant progress toward establishing a two-state solution. Mekelberg said this stance reflects a broader consensus among Arab leaders that resolving the Palestinian issue is key to achieving lasting peace.
“We saw what happens when the Palestinian issue is not resolved … For some people, when you say that, the interpretation is almost like justifying what happened on October 7th. Obviously not. No one ever can justify something like this,” he noted, adding that conflicts that are left “to fester will catch you in all sorts (of ways) and will lead certain people to do all sorts of things,” leaving leaders to deal with the “fallout.”
This approach “is much worse for Israel than working toward peace in the first place,” Mekelberg said, criticizing the current Israeli narrative that dismisses Palestinian leadership as incapable of negotiation.
Mekelberg acknowledged the widespread criticism of the Palestinian Authority, which was established in the 1990s under the Oslo Accords to govern areas of the West Bank and Gaza. The Fatah-controlled body has been accused of impotence and ineffectiveness, particularly during the current crisis. As a result, Tel Aviv has dismissed the possibility of negotiating with its leaders, raising questions about who could lead Palestinian territories toward a viable peace process.
“Israel needs change on so many levels,” Mekelberg emphasized, highlighting Netanyahu’s extended tenure in power, spanning 15 years almost consecutively and additional terms between 1996 and 1999.
“(He) is longest serving (prime minister), more than David Ben Gurion, who’s founder of the country. He’s a master manipulator. He understands the Israeli political system and psyche in a way that no one knows better than him and he managed to win (the) election. The fact that he, considering what happened only a year ago, is still prime minister, is a complete and colossal failure to defend Israel.”
Netanyahu, who previously served as prime minister from 1996 to 1999 and from 2009 to 2021, returned to office in 2022 despite facing long-standing corruption charges. The indictments, filed in 2019, allege breach of trust, accepting bribes, and fraud. While he relinquished other ministerial roles, he has held onto the premiership, using his coalition with Israel’s most extreme political parties to influence the judicial system and delay his trial.
Critics argue that Netanyahu has exploited Israel’s volatile situation to postpone legal proceedings. This week, the Jerusalem District Court rejected his request for a further delay, and he is scheduled to testify on Dec. 2.
Referring to Netanyahu as a “Teflon politician” to whom no scandal seems to stick, Mekelberg questioned how long he could maintain his position. “And, I will be the first to admit, I don’t always understand what is the appeal.”
Discussing the potential impact of Trump’s re-election, Mekelberg voiced cautious optimism about the former president’s ability to broker peace. He downplayed concerns over Trump’s far-right appointees, noting that if his first term is any indication, “there will be people coming and going in this administration probably within a year.” However, he stressed that Trump’s success would hinge on major changes within Israel’s political landscape.
The Ray Hanania Radio Show is broadcast every Thursday in Michigan on WNZK AM 690 Radio at 5 p.m. on the US Arab Radio Network and is sponsored by Arab News. To listen to the full episode or past shows, visit ArabNews.com/RayRadioShow. To get more information on host Ray Hanania, visit ArabNews.com or his website at RayHanania.com.
Frankly Speaking: How do Palestinians perceive a new Trump presidency?
- Foreign minister says Palestinians are hopeful about the next US administration as there is now global momentum behind the two-state solution
- Varsen Aghabekian Shahin tells “Franking Speaking” coalition spearheaded by Saudi Arabia to help realize statehood represents a source of hope
DUBAI: Although the previous administration of US President-elect Donald Trump was seen as a staunch ally of Israel, Varsen Aghabekian Shahin, Palestine’s minister of state for foreign affairs and expatriates, says Palestinians remain hopeful about his return to the White House.
In large part this is due to a perception that the international climate surrounding the issue of Palestinian statehood is fundamentally different to that which prevailed during Trump’s last administration, owed in large part to events in Gaza and the resulting wave of solidarity.
“I have to be hopeful. We have to remain hopeful,” said Aghabekian Shahin during an appearance on the Arab News current affairs program “Franking Speaking,” a week after President-elect Trump secured a powerful mandate in a deeply polarized US election race.
Her optimism, however, is tempered by the decades of frustration that Palestinians have felt under Israeli occupation. “What we have been hoping for, as always, is a Palestinian state with our sovereignty and our self-determination,” she told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.
While Trump’s first term was marked by controversial moves such as recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocating the US embassy there from Tel Aviv, Aghabekian Shahin believes there remains a possibility for change.
“With the incoming president in the United States, our hope remains the same. We hope President Trump will take a more balanced approach ... and put on his agenda the rights of the Palestinians.”
During his last administration, Trump championed normalization agreements between Arab states and Israel under the Abraham Accords. However, Aghabekian Shahin says “peace will not be sustainable if Palestinians’ rights are not taken into consideration.”
In contrast with the period coinciding with Trump’s last administration, Aghabekian Shahin says there is now a global momentum behind Palestinian statehood, catalyzed by shifting alliances and growing public outrage over Israeli actions in Gaza.
“I think times today are different than they were a couple years ago,” said Aghabekian Shahin.
“The ongoing genocide in Gaza, the mounting pressure and dissatisfaction all over capitals in Europe … and the coalition today led by Saudi Arabia on the materialization of the state of Palestine — these are new dimensions that cannot be ignored.”
Israel’s military campaign in Gaza came in retaliation for the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, which killed more than 1,200 and saw 250 taken hostage. The conflict in the tiny Palestinian enclave has resulted in more than 43,700 dead and 1.9 million displaced.
International criticism of the scale of destruction in Gaza has intensified over the past year, with many questioning Israel’s adherence to international law. Israeli leaders could face war crimes charges before the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court.
One positive to emerge from the conflict is renewed interest in the long-dormant effort to achieve the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which envisions an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital living peacefully alongside Israel.
Lauding Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic and humanitarian efforts, Aghabekian Shahin said a new international coalition spearheaded by the Kingdom to help expedite the two-state solution represented a source of hope for Palestinians.
This ambition was given further weight by the joint summit of the Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation that took place in the Saudi capital on Nov. 11, during which the leaders of 57 Arab and Islamic countries called on Israel to negotiate an end to the decades-old conflict.
“Saudi Arabia has been extremely important for aid and its support to the Palestinian people,” said Aghabekian Shahin. “The summit that was held in Riyadh is a very important message. Fifty-seven countries were present in the meeting, with clear decisions and a focus on ending the occupation.”
Saudi Arabia has explicitly linked the normalization of ties with Israel to progress on Palestinian statehood. Aghabekian Shahin said this position is “a very important step and something that pushes forward and brings a lot of hope to the Palestinian people.”
During the recent joint summit, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman described Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocide, marking the first occasion that a Saudi official had publicly done so. Nevertheless, there are still several nations, including many of Israel’s Western allies, who have avoided using the term.
While acknowledging the scale of human suffering in Gaza, Aghabekian Shahin said the precise terminology is less important than addressing the atrocities that are taking place.
“Even if 300,000 people are killed in Gaza, God forbidding, some countries will not call it a genocide,” she said. “What is happening is a humanitarian catastrophe. ... Governments and people are more and more realizing that these atrocities cannot continue.”
Asked whether Hamas bears responsibility for triggering the carnage that has befallen Gaza, Aghabekian Shahin did not condemn the Palestinian militant group outright, focusing instead on the underlying conditions that have fueled the cycle of violence.
“Who takes the blame first and foremost is the belligerent occupation that has been suffocating Palestinian lives over seven decades,” she said. “Gazans were living in an open-air prison… When people as human beings are cornered and they don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel, then obviously violence erupts.”
Despite the grim reality of the situation and the intense animosity between the warring sides, Aghabekian Shahin underscored the importance of diplomacy and adherence to international law to resolve the conflict.
“Any violence perpetrated by any side is unacceptable,” she said. “We need to put violence aside and resort to mechanisms that will bring us closer to our liberation as per international law.”
This commitment to seeking peaceful solutions aligns with Aghabekian Shahin’s extensive background in academia, human rights advocacy, and as a veteran member of the Palestinian negotiations unit.
Before her ministerial appointment in April, she served in various roles, including as director of the Capacity and Institutional Building Project at the Office of the Palestinian President and commissioner-general of the Palestinian Independent Commission for Human Rights.
A member of Jerusalem’s Armenian community, Aghabekian Shahin has witnessed firsthand the pressures faced by minority groups in the city. She highlights the significance of the Armenian Quarter in the Old City, which has come under growing threat by far-right Jewish settlers.
“The land in question is invaluable,” she said, referring to a bitter ongoing legal dispute between the Armenian Patriarchate and an Australian-Israeli developer to lease an area of land in the Armenian Quarter to build a luxury hotel.
“This land is part and parcel of the heritage of the Armenian people for decades in Jerusalem,” said Aghabekian Shahin. “The community has a very good team of Israeli lawyers along with international lawyers who are working on the case.”
The Armenian Quarter in Jerusalem’s Old City has long been a symbol of Armenian identity and presence in the region. Aghabekian Shahin believes its preservation is vital not just for Armenians but for Jerusalem’s multicultural heritage.
The flight of Christian communities more broadly from Palestine and the wider Middle East is itself a bellwether of the decline of religious pluralism in the region. Aghabekian Shahin attributes this trend to the hardships of living under occupation.
“People are sick and tired of occupation,” she said. “They want a better future for their children. This better future cannot happen under occupation… With an end of occupation, there is an economic horizon and a future that people can look to.”
As Palestinians await clarity on the global stage, Aghabekian Shahin remains resolute. “What we hope for today is what we have always hoped for — a sovereign Palestinian state living in peace next to Israel.”
The stakes are high, however, not only for Palestinians but for the broader Middle East, where peace remains elusive. Aghabekian Shahin believes the next US administration will have to address the root causes of the conflict.
“Without justice for Palestinians, there will be no sustainable peace.”
