BERLIN: Germany’s jobless rate fell to a new record low in September and the number of unemployed people fell far more than expected but retail sales disappointed, sending mixed signals about the state of Europe’s largest economy.
The unemployment rate dropped to 5.6 percent, the lowest level since reunification in 1990, after 5.7 percent in August, data on Friday from the Federal Labour Office showed. Economists polled by Reuters had expected it to hold steady.
The jobless total fell by 23,000 to 2.506 million in seasonally adjusted terms. That compared with the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll for a fall of 5,000 and was a steeper drop than that projected by even the most optimistic economist, who had expected a fall of 15,000.
“The economic cycle in Germany is moving toward its peak stage and that’s giving the labor market a further boost,” said Joerg Zeuner, chief economist at state development bank KfW.
An economic upturn in Europe has boosted exports and corporate investment, suggesting further rises in employment and noticeable wage rises — including beyond 2017, he said. But he added there were risks for the economy, with a further strong appreciation of the euro chief among them.
That could potentially hurt exporters in an economy traditionally propelled by exports but more recently driven by consumers who are benefiting from record employment, increased job security, rising real wages and ultra-low borrowing costs.
Other data published on Friday showed retail sales unexpectedly fell on the month in August and posted a smaller increase on the year than forecast, putting a slight dampener on hopes that a consumer-led upswing will continue at full steam.
The volatile indicator, which is often subject to revision, showed retail sales decreased by 0.4 percent on the month in real terms. That compared with the Reuters consensus forecast for a 0.5 percent rise and followed a 1.2 percent drop in July.
On the year, retail sales jumped by 2.8 percent, matching the previous month’s increase but undershooting a Reuters consensus forecast for an increase of 3.2 percent.
Adding to the mixed picture, a GfK survey published on Thursday showed the cheerful mood among German shoppers had clouded unexpectedly heading into October.
Nonetheless, the outlook for the economy remains bright overall. Institutes on Thursday hiked their growth forecasts to 1.9 percent this year and 2 percent next year, while also saying Germany would have record budget surpluses over the next two years.
— Reuters
Jobless drop, retail sales fall paint mixed picture of German economy
Jobless drop, retail sales fall paint mixed picture of German economy
Authorities announce establishment of shelters ahead of possible operation in restive Pakistani district
- The announcement came a day after militants attacked a supply convoy in Kurram, killing 10 people and kidnapping five others
- Tribal and sectarian clashes since Nov. 21 have killed at least 136 people in Kurram and caused shortages of medicine, food and fuel
ISLAMABAD: Authorities in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province on Friday announced the establishment of camps for temporary displaced persons (TDPs) ahead of a possible operation in the restive Kurram district, which has been hit by deadly clashes in the last two months.
The announcement of the establishment of TDP camps came a day after militants ambushed a convoy bringing supplies to the region, killing 10 people, while there were reports of the kidnapping of another five drivers.
Kurram, a northwestern district of around 600,000 people in KP, has been rocked by tribal and sectarian clashes since November 21, when armed men attacked a convoy of Shia passengers, killing 52 people.
The attack sparked further violence and blockade of a main road connecting Kurram’s main town of Parachinar with the provincial capital of Peshawar, causing medicine, food and fuel shortages in the area, as casualties surged to 136.
“It is stated that LEAs [law enforcement agencies] is planning an operation in various areas of Lower Kurram... to counter terrorism,” the Kurram deputy commissioner’s office said in a notification on Friday.
“In order to ensure safety and support of the affected population during the expected operation, the following sites are proposed for establishment of camps for the TDPs of District Kurram,” it said, naming Government Boys Degree College, Government Technical College, Rescue 1122 Compound and Judicial Building in Tal area as the potential sites.
Feuding tribes have battled with machine guns and heavy weapons in Kurram, cutting off the remote and mountainous region bordering Afghanistan from the outside world.
Thursday’s ambush targeted a convoy of 33 vehicles set to resupply local traders in the region with rice, flour and cooking oil and two aid vehicles carrying essential medicine. It followed a similar attack on a supply convoy this month that injured five people, including a top administration official in the region.
The violence has continued despite a peace agreement signed between the warring tribes on Jan. 1. Under the peace agreement, both sides had agreed on the demolition of bunkers and the handover of heavy weapons to authorities within two weeks.
Since late last month, provincial authorities have been supplying relief goods and transporting ailing and injured people from Kurram to Peshawar via helicopters.
Pakistan, Bangladesh resolve to enhance defense cooperation amid thaw in ties
- Pakistan and Bangladesh were once one nation, but split in 1971 as a result of a bloody civil war
- Ties between both nations have warmed up since PM Hasina’s ouster due to an uprising in Aug.
ISLAMABAD: Top Pakistani and Bangladeshi officials have resolved to strengthen defense cooperation in all fields, Pakistani state media reported on Saturday, amid a thaw in relations between the two countries.
The development came at a meeting between Pakistan’s Defense Secretary Lt. Gen. (retired) Muhammad Ali and Lt. Gen. S.M. Kamr-ul-Hassan, principal staff officer of the Bangladesh armed forces division, in Rawalpindi.
The visiting dignitary expressed Bangladesh’s aspiration for “vibrant days” of cooperation between two countries, the Radio Pakistan broadcaster reported.
“The discussion was focused on expanding bilateral defense collaboration covering all domains,” the report read. “Both sides expressed satisfaction over ongoing collaboration between two countries and aimed at strengthening the cooperation in mutually beneficial fields.”
Pakistan and Bangladesh were once one nation, but they split in 1971 as a result of a bloody civil war, which saw the part previously referred to as East Pakistan seceding to form the independent nation of Bangladesh.
In the years since, Bangladeshi leaders, particularly former prime minister Hasina, chose to maintain close ties with India. Ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh have warmed up since Hasina’s ouster as a result of a student-led uprising in August, witnessing a marked improvement.
This week, Lt. Gen. Hassan met Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Asim Munir in Rawalpindi, according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the Pakistani military’s media wing.
During the meeting, both military commanders stressed the need for an enduring partnership between the two countries to remain “resilient against external influences.”
On Tuesday, Pakistan and Bangladesh signed a landmark agreement to establish a joint business council, the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) said, amid efforts to enhance trade and economic cooperation between the two countries.
“The establishment of the Pakistan-Bangladesh Business Council is a milestone for trade relations between the two countries,” FPCCI President Atif Ikram Sheikh said after signing the agreement in Dhaka, along with representatives of the Administrative Federation of the Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce.
During the visit, the FPCCI chief led a Pakistani business delegation that held meetings with their counterparts in Bangladesh to discuss ways to enhance trade ties. The Trade Corporation of Pakistan also signed a memorandum of understanding for rice export to Bangladesh on Tuesday.
Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar is also scheduled to visit Dhaka in the start of February to further consolidate the relations between the two countries.
Israel’s Cabinet approves a deal for a ceasefire in Gaza
- The Israeli government announced the approval after 1 a.m. Jerusalem time and confirmed the ceasefire will go into effect on Sunday
- Under the deal, 33 of some 100 hostages who remain in Gaza are set to be released over six weeks in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians
JERUSALEM: Israel’s Cabinet approved a deal early Saturday for a ceasefire in Gaza that would release dozens of hostages held there and pause the 15-month war with Hamas, bringing the sides a step closer to ending their deadliest and most destructive fighting ever.
The government announced the approval after 1 a.m. Jerusalem time and confirmed the ceasefire will go into effect on Sunday. The hourslong Cabinet meeting went well past the beginning of the Jewish Sabbath, a sign of the moment’s importance. In line with Jewish law, the Israeli government usually halts all business for the Sabbath except in emergency cases of life or death.
Mediators Qatar and the United States announced the ceasefire on Wednesday, but the deal was in limbo for more than a day as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted there were last-minute complications that he blamed on the Hamas militant group. On Friday, the smaller security Cabinet recommended approving the deal.
Key questions remain about the ceasefire — the second achieved during the war — including the names of the 33 hostages who are to be released during the first, six-week phase and who among them is still alive.
Netanyahu instructed a special task force to prepare to receive the hostages. The 33 are women, children, men over 50 and sick or wounded people. Hamas has agreed to free three female hostages on Day 1 of the deal, four on Day 7 and the remaining 26 over the following five weeks.
Palestinian detainees are to be released as well. Israel’s justice ministry published a list of 700 to be freed in the deal’s first phase and said the release will not begin before 4 p.m. local time Sunday. All people on the list are younger or female.
Israel’s Prison Services said it will transport the prisoners instead of the International Committee of the Red Cross, which handled transportation during the first ceasefire, to avoid “public expressions of joy.” The prisoners have been accused of crimes like incitement, vandalism, supporting terror, terror activities, attempted murder or throwing stones or Molotov cocktails.
The largely devastated Gaza should see a surge in humanitarian aid. Trucks carrying aid lined up Friday on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing into Gaza.
An Egyptian official said an Israeli delegation from the military and Israel’s Shin Bet internal security agency arrived Friday in Cairo to discuss the reopening of the crossing. An Israeli official confirmed a delegation was going to Cairo. Both spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the private negotiations.
Israeli forces will also pull back from many areas in Gaza during the first phase of the ceasefire and hundreds of thousands of Palestinians will be able to return to what’s left of their homes.
“Once Sunday comes around, we would be happier, God willing,” one of Gaza’s displaced people, Ekhlas Al-Kafarna, said during the wait for word on the Israeli Cabinet decision.
Israel’s military said that as its forces gradually withdraw from specific locations and routes in Gaza, residents will not be allowed to return to areas where troops are present or near the Israel-Gaza border, and any threat to Israeli forces “will be met with a forceful response.”
Ceasefire talks had stalled repeatedly in previous months. But Israel and Hamas had been under growing pressure from both the Biden administration and President-elect Donald Trump to reach a deal before Trump takes office on Monday.
Hamas triggered the war with its Oct. 7, 2023, cross-border attack into Israel that killed some 1,200 people and left some 250 others captive. Nearly 100 hostages remain in Gaza.
Israel responded with a devastating offensive that has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, who do not distinguish between civilians and militants but say women and children make up more than half the dead.
Fighting continued into Friday, and Gaza’s Health Ministry said 88 bodies had arrived at hospitals in the past 24 hours. In previous conflicts, both sides stepped up military operations in the final hours before ceasefires as a way to project strength.
The second — and much more difficult — phase of the ceasefire is meant to be negotiated during the first. The remainder of the hostages, including male soldiers, are to be released during this phase.
But Hamas has said it will not release the remaining captives without a lasting ceasefire and a full Israeli withdrawal, while Israel has vowed to keep fighting until it dismantles the group and to maintain open-ended security control over the territory.
Longer-term questions about postwar Gaza remain, including who will rule the territory or oversee the daunting task of reconstruction.
The conflict has destabilized the Middle East and sparked worldwide protests. It also highlighted political tensions inside Israel, drawing fierce resistance from Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners.
On Thursday, Israel’s hard-line national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, threatened to quit the government if Israel approved the ceasefire. He reiterated that Friday, writing on social media platform X: “If the ‘deal’ passes, we will leave the government with a heavy heart.”
There was no immediate sign early Saturday that he had done so.
Ben-Gvir’s resignation would not bring down the government or derail the ceasefire deal, but the move would destabilize the government at a delicate moment and could eventually lead to its collapse if Ben-Gvir were joined by other key Netanyahu allies.
China’s population falls for a third straight year, posing challenges for its government and economy
China’s population falls for a third straight year, posing challenges for its government and economy
- China’s population stood at 1.408 billion at the end of 2024, a decline of 1.39 million from the previous year
- Rising costs of living are causing young people to put off or rule out marriage and child birth while pursuing higher education and careers
- China has long been among the world’s most populous nations, enduring invasions, floods and other natural disasters
TAIPEI, Taiwan: China’s population fell last year for the third straight year, its government said Friday, pointing to further demographic challenges for the world’s second most populous nation, which is now facing both an aging population and an emerging shortage of working age people.
China’s population stood at 1.408 billion at the end of 2024, a decline of 1.39 million from the previous year.
The figures announced by the government in Beijing follow trends worldwide, but especially in East Asia, where Japan, South Korea and other nations have seen their birth rates plummet. China three years ago joined Japan and most of Eastern Europe among other nations whose population is falling.
The reasons are in many cases similar: Rising costs of living are causing young people to put off or rule out marriage and child birth while pursuing higher education and careers. While people are living longer, that’s not enough to keep up with rate of new births.
Countries such as China that allow very little immigration are especially at risk.
China has long been among the world’s most populous nations, enduring invasions, floods and other natural disasters to sustain a population that thrived on rice in the south and wheat in the north. Following the end of World War II and the Communist Party’s rise to power in 1949, large families re-emerged and the population doubled in just three decades, even after tens of millions died in the Great Leap Forward that sought to revolutionize agriculture and industry and the Cultural Revolution that followed a few years later.
After the end of the Cultural Revolution and leader Mao Zedong’s death, Communist bureaucrats began to worry the country’s population was outstripping its ability to feed itself and began implementing a draconian “one child policy.” Though it was never law, women had to apply for permission to have a child and violators could face forced late-term abortions and birth control procedures, massive fines and the prospect of their child being deprived an identification number, effectively making them non-citizens.
Rural China, where the preference for male offspring was especially strong and two children were still ostensibly allowed, became the focus of government efforts, with women forced to present evidence they were menstruating and buildings emblazoned with slogans such as “have fewer children, have better children.”
The government sought to stamp out selective abortion of female children, but with abortions legal and readily available, those operating illicit sonogram machines enjoyed a thriving business.
That has been the biggest factor in China’s lopsided sex ratio, with as many as millions more boys born for every 100 girls, raising the possibility of social instability among China’s army of bachelors. Friday’s report gave the sex imbalance as 104.34 men to every 100 women, though independent groups give the imbalance as considerably higher.
More disturbing for the government was the drastically falling birthrate, with China’s total population dropping for the first time in decades in 2023 and China being narrowly overtaken by India as the world’s most populous nation in the same year. A rapidly aging population, declining workforce, lack of consumer markets and migration abroad are putting the system under severe pressure.
While spending on the military and flashy infrastructure projects continues to rise, China’s already frail social security system is teetering, with increasing numbers of Chinese refusing to pay into the underfunded pension system.
Already, more than one-fifth of the population is aged 60 or over, with the official figure given as 310.3 million or 22 percent of the total population. By 2035, this number is forecast to exceed 30 percent, sparking discussion of changes to the official retirement age, which one of the lowest in the world. With fewer students, some vacant schools and kindergartens are meanwhile being transformed into care facilities for older people.
Such developments are giving some credence to the aphorism that China, now the world’s second largest economy but facing major headwinds, will “grow old before it grows rich.”
Government inducements including cash payouts for having up to three children and financial help with housing costs have had only temporary effects.
Meanwhile, China continued its transition to an urban society, with 10 million more people moving to cities for an urbanization rate of 67 percent, up almost a percentage point from the previous year.
IMF projects 3% growth for Pakistan in 2025 amid ‘lackluster’ global outlook
- IMF’s World Economic Outlook report forecasts global growth to remain modest at 3.3%
- Growth projections for Pakistan in the report signal a gradual recovery after a tough period
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy is projected to grow by 3% in 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its World Economic Outlook Update released on Friday, as it painted a picture of a subdued global economy for the year ahead.
The IMF report forecasts global growth to remain modest at 3.3% in both 2025 and 2026, with advanced economies expected to see slower growth, while emerging markets, including Pakistan, poised to face a mixed recovery trajectory.
It warns of heightened economic policy uncertainty, particularly on trade and fiscal fronts, while mentioning that political instability in parts of Asia and Europe has rattled markets.
The report also cites geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East as a significant global challenge.
“Global growth is expected to remain stable, albeit lackluster. At 3.3 percent in both 2025 and 2026, the forecasts for growth are below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.7 percent,” the IMF said.
It noted in tabulated form that Pakistan’s GDP is expected to grow from 2.5% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, signaling a gradual recovery after a challenging period.
The IMF’s cautious global outlook reflected structural issues and external shocks that pose risks to different world economies.
Elevated policy uncertainty, fiscal imbalances and inflationary pressures have traditionally been significant concerns for Pakistan. Additionally, global financial tightening and geopolitical tensions have further strained Pakistan’s economy in the past since it heavily relies on imports and external funding.
However, the government has been implementing structural reforms in key areas like taxation, governance and energy management, aiming to improve long-term growth prospects.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has consistently emphasized the importance of adhering to IMF-mandated reforms under the $7 billion loan agreement signed last year. In September, he said that “our hand has been forced as a country” to take stringent measures to put the economy back on track.
The IMF report, based on the assumption of policy continuity, reflects a cautiously optimistic trajectory for Pakistan’s economy in 2025 and beyond.
