BERLIN: Germany’s jobless rate fell to a new record low in September and the number of unemployed people fell far more than expected but retail sales disappointed, sending mixed signals about the state of Europe’s largest economy.
The unemployment rate dropped to 5.6 percent, the lowest level since reunification in 1990, after 5.7 percent in August, data on Friday from the Federal Labour Office showed. Economists polled by Reuters had expected it to hold steady.
The jobless total fell by 23,000 to 2.506 million in seasonally adjusted terms. That compared with the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll for a fall of 5,000 and was a steeper drop than that projected by even the most optimistic economist, who had expected a fall of 15,000.
“The economic cycle in Germany is moving toward its peak stage and that’s giving the labor market a further boost,” said Joerg Zeuner, chief economist at state development bank KfW.
An economic upturn in Europe has boosted exports and corporate investment, suggesting further rises in employment and noticeable wage rises — including beyond 2017, he said. But he added there were risks for the economy, with a further strong appreciation of the euro chief among them.
That could potentially hurt exporters in an economy traditionally propelled by exports but more recently driven by consumers who are benefiting from record employment, increased job security, rising real wages and ultra-low borrowing costs.
Other data published on Friday showed retail sales unexpectedly fell on the month in August and posted a smaller increase on the year than forecast, putting a slight dampener on hopes that a consumer-led upswing will continue at full steam.
The volatile indicator, which is often subject to revision, showed retail sales decreased by 0.4 percent on the month in real terms. That compared with the Reuters consensus forecast for a 0.5 percent rise and followed a 1.2 percent drop in July.
On the year, retail sales jumped by 2.8 percent, matching the previous month’s increase but undershooting a Reuters consensus forecast for an increase of 3.2 percent.
Adding to the mixed picture, a GfK survey published on Thursday showed the cheerful mood among German shoppers had clouded unexpectedly heading into October.
Nonetheless, the outlook for the economy remains bright overall. Institutes on Thursday hiked their growth forecasts to 1.9 percent this year and 2 percent next year, while also saying Germany would have record budget surpluses over the next two years.
— Reuters
Jobless drop, retail sales fall paint mixed picture of German economy
Jobless drop, retail sales fall paint mixed picture of German economy
Netanyahu and Trump to talk tariffs, Iran and Gaza
- Analysts said Netanyahu would seek to secure an exemption from the tariffs for Israel
- Netanyahu will also discuss the war sparked by Hamas’s October 2023 attack, the Israeli hostages still held in Gaza, and the “growing threat from Iran,”
WASHINGTON: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Washington on Monday to meet Donald Trump, whom he will likely ask for a reprieve from US tariffs while seeking further backing on Iran and Gaza.
Netanyahu becomes the first foreign leader to meet Trump in the US capital since the “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement sent global markets crashing.
He was also due to discuss the war in Gaza, following the collapse of a short-lived truce that the United States had helped broker.
Arriving in Washington direct from a visit to Hungary, Netanyahu’s chief objective was to try to persuade Trump to reverse the decision, or at the very least to reduce the 17 percent levy set to be imposed on Israeli imports before it takes effect.
Upon arrival, Netanyahu met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, according to his office.
Before leaving Budapest, Netanyahu had said his discussions would cover a range of issues, including “the tariff regime that has also been imposed on Israel.”
“I’m the first international leader, the first foreign leader who will meet with President Trump on a matter so crucial to Israel’s economy,” he said in a statement.
“I believe this reflects the special personal relationship and the unique bond between the United States and Israel, which is so vital at this time.”
Analysts said Netanyahu would seek to secure an exemption from the tariffs for Israel.
“The urgency (of the visit) makes sense in terms of stopping it before it gets institutionalized,” said Jonathan Rynhold, head of political studies at Bar-Ilan University in Tel Aviv.
Such an exemption would not only benefit Trump’s closest Middle East ally but also “please Republicans in Congress, whose voters care about Israel, but are unwilling to confront Trump on this at this point,” he said.
Israel had attempted to avoid the new levy by moving preemptively a day before Trump’s announcement and lifting all remaining duties on the one percent of American goods still affected by them.
But Trump did not exempt Israel from his global salvo, saying the United States had a significant trade deficit with the country, the top beneficiary of US military aid.
The Israeli leader’s visit is “also a way for Netanyahu to play the game and show Trump that Israel is going along with him,” said Yannay Spitzer, a professor of economics at Hebrew University.
“I would not be surprised if there is an announcement of some concession for Israel... and this will be an example for other countries.”
Netanyahu will also discuss the war sparked by Hamas’s October 2023 attack, the Israeli hostages still held in Gaza, and the “growing threat from Iran,” his office said.
Israel resumed intense strikes on Gaza on March 18, and the weeks-long ceasefire with Hamas that the United States, Egypt and Qatar had brokered collapsed.
Efforts to restore the truce have failed, with nearly 1,400 people killed in renewed Israeli air and ground operations, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-controlled territory.
Palestinian militants in Gaza are still holding 58 hostages, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.
On Iran, Trump has been pressing for “direct talks” with Tehran on a new deal to curb the Islamic republic’s nuclear program.
But Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghai said Tehran’s proposal for indirect negotiations was “generous, responsible and wise.”
There has been widespread speculation that Israel, possibly with US help, might attack Iranian facilities if no agreement is reached.
Baghai also said that Iran was ready to respond in case of attack.
“Should the threats against Iran be realized, they would precipitate a swift, immediate and global response from Iran’s side,” he said.
Pakistan stocks plummet as Trump tariffs hammer global financial markets
- Trading at PSX halted briefly on Monday as benchmark share index slumped by over 5% during day
- Asian equity markets sank, European shares crashed to a 16-month-low and oil prices plummeted
KARACHI: Trading at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) was halted briefly on Monday as its benchmark share index slumped by over 5% during the day, as international markets reacted to market volatility caused by sweeping tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump last week.
The PSX suspended stocks trading for an hour at 11:58 am after the KSE-30 index, which tracks the performance of the 30 most liquid companies listed on the exchange, fell by 5.6% or 2,055 points to 34,723 points.
According to PSX rules, trading is halted if the KSE-30 index falls below 5% and keeps trading below that number continuously for five minutes. The benchmark KSE-100 index, which measures the performance of 100 companies, lost 5.3% or 6,287 points, making it the highest intraday drop in terms of points, according to JS Global Capital Ltd.
“Due to a 5% decrease in the KSE-30 index from the previous trading day close of the index, a market halt has been triggered as per PSX regulations and all equity and equity-based markets have been suspended accordingly,” the PSX said in a statement.
Due to the halt, all outstanding orders were automatically canceled before trading resumed at 1:03pm.
The market was reacting to Trump’s recent decision to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on multiple countries, a measure widely viewed as a setback for a global economy still recovering from the pandemic. Washington has also imposed a 29% tariff on Pakistani goods.
“The sharp selloff this morning mirrors a broader wave of global market volatility, driven by the US administration’s recent imposition of sweeping tariffs,” Shahid Ali Habib, chief executive officer at Arif Habib Ltd., told Arab News.
“These measures have intensified fears of a global trade war, shaking investor confidence worldwide,” he added.
Pakistan considers the US an important trade partner, with Islamabad’s exports to the country totaling $5.44 billion in the last financial year that ended in June.
Muhammad Waqas Ghani, head of research at JS Global Capital Ltd., noted that US tariffs were a major cause of uncertainty in equity markets across the world.
“Impact on the KSE-100 index is a reflection of investor anxiety as they anticipate negative effects on overall economic stability,” Ghani told Arab News.
The stock market slump is bound to weigh on investor sentiments in Pakistan, where equity traders had just started earning profits out of a boom triggered by the much-awaited nod from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) mission in Pakistan. The IMF team led by Nathan Porter held discussions with Pakistan officials on the country’s economic performance from February 24-March 14 in Karachi and Islamabad.
Domestically, Habib said the oil sector stocks were bearing the brunt of the selloff as they faced pressure due to concerns of potential inventory losses following last week’s 9.5 percent sharp decline in oil prices.
Talking about other factors that caused the benchmark index to slump, Ghani said lack of clarity on the government’s part to address the energy sector’s circular debt issue was also making investors cautious.
Last week, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced a relief package for domestic and industrial power consumers, vowing that his government would resolve the longstanding circular debt issue in the next five years. However, the Pakistani premier did not provide much clarity on how his government would achieve that.
As a result, confidence in the energy stocks is on the low leading to a fall in stock prices, Ghani said.
“For now, investors may remain cautious until there’s more clarity on these fronts, and the market may continue to experience volatility until a positive direction is set by the government,” he added.
Lebanon health ministry says one dead in Israeli strike in south
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s health ministry said an Israeli strike in the country’s south killed one person Monday, the latest such raid despite a delicate truce between Israel and Hezbollah, and after a US envoy visited.
The “Israeli enemy” drone strike on the town of Taybeh near the border “led to the death of one citizen,” the health ministry said in a statement.
An Israeli security source said the Israeli military “struck a Hezbollah terrorist” in the Taybeh area.
The official National News Agency (NNA) said the strike hit “in front of a motorcycle repair shop” in the town, in south Lebanon’s Marjayoun district.
Israel has continued to launch strikes on Lebanon since a November 27 ceasefire that largely halted more than a year of hostilities with Hezbollah, including two months of total war.
Lebanon said an Israeli strike on Sunday killed two people in south Lebanon’s Zibqin, as the Israeli military said it targeted Hezbollah operatives in the area.
Israeli strikes last week also targeted other south Lebanon locations and even Hezbollah’s south Beirut bastion.
The NNA also reported Israeli strikes on prefabricated homes in south Lebanon’s Naqura area on Sunday. Such homes have usually been set up for returning residents whose homes were destroyed in the conflict.
The truce accord was based on a UN Security Council resolution that says Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers should be the only forces in south Lebanon, and calls for the disarmament of all non-state groups.
Visiting US deputy special envoy for the Middle East Morgan Ortagus discussed the situation in south Lebanon and economic reforms with senior Lebanese officials at the weekend, with talks also addressing Hezbollah’s disarmament.
In an interview with Lebanese television channel LBCI broadcast on Sunday, Ortagus said Washington continued to press Lebanon’s government “to fully fulfil the cessation of hostilities, and that includes disarming Hezbollah and all militias,” adding it should happen “as soon as possible.”
Hezbollah was left severely weakened in the latest conflict with Israel.
Saudi non-oil growth holds firm in March with PMI at 58: S&P Global
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector maintained its resilience in March, with the Kingdom’s Purchasing Managers’ Index reaching 58.1, the highest among its Middle Eastern peers.
According to the latest Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI report compiled by S&P Global, non-oil private firms in the Kingdom witnessed a marked increase in new order volumes, although the growth rate softened further from the near 14-year record seen in January.
The March figure represented a slight decline from the 58.4 seen in February, but it was still higher than UAE’s PMI rating of 54, Kuwait’s at 52.3 and Qatar’s at 52.
Any PMI reading above 50 signifies an expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
The sustained momentum reflects the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 strategy to reduce reliance on oil by accelerating growth in tourism, manufacturing, logistics, and financial services.
Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at Riyad Bank, described the Saudi non-oil private sector as demonstrating “significant resilience and growth,” adding: “This reading reflects sustained positive momentum in business conditions, highlighting the sector’s robust economic health and its vital role in the ongoing diversification efforts of the Kingdom as envisaged by Vision 2030.”
Saudi Arabia’s non-oil businesses continued to increase their employment at an elevated pace in March, driven by an upturn in demand.
The report further said that staffing growth was little changed from February’s 16-month high, as firms widely commented on efforts to build their sales teams and overall capacity.
Survey data also indicated that job growth in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector during the first three months of this year was the fastest since the third quarter of 2012.
“Rising employment rates are a direct benefit of businesses scaling up operations to meet demand. By providing more job opportunities, Saudi Arabia aims to nurture a skilled and ambitious workforce, reducing the unemployment rate to 7 percent for Saudi nationals,” said Al-Ghaith.
Speaking at the World Investment Conference in Riyadh last November, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim said non-oil activities now account for 52 percent of the Kingdom’s gross domestic product. He added that the non-oil economy has grown by 20 percent since the launch of Vision 2030.
The latest PMI report added that greater marketing efforts, lower selling prices, and a broader improvement in economic conditions played a crucial role in driving sales growth among non-oil firms in Saudi Arabia in March.
New orders from foreign markets also rose in March, although the rate of expansion slowed.
Highlighting the affinity of Saudi Arabia’s non-oil products in international markets, a report by the General Authority for Statistics revealed that the Kingdom’s non-energy exports surged by 10.7 percent in January to reach SR26.48 billion ($7.06 billion).
According to the latest S&P Global report, increased workforces and stronger new businesses supported a robust upturn in non-oil private sector activity during March.
Non-oil firms in the Kingdom also engaged in additional stockpiling as they anticipate a sustained uplift in sales.
Companies that took part in the survey revealed that purchasing activity rose sharply in March, leading to another steep increase in total inventories.
“The improvement in business conditions supports efforts to attract investment, increase the competitiveness of the Saudi economy, and enhance local business growth,” said Al-Ghaith.
He added: “This initiative is further supported by governmental enhancements in regulatory frameworks and infrastructure investments which pave the way for greater private and foreign investments.”
Attracting international investments is one of the crucial goals outlined in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, with the Kingdom aiming to attract $100 billion a year in foreign direct investment by the end of this decade.
The latest S&P Global report further said that suppliers’ delivery times improved in March, with several panellists noting that strong vendor relationships had facilitated efficiency gains.
However, some reports of supply disruption and administrative delays led to a much softer overall upturn in performance compared to February. This softening also hindered efforts to clear outstanding work, contributing to a renewed and sharp rise in total backlogs.
In terms of pricing, the latest survey revealed that input cost pressures witnessed a marked easing in March.
The report added that the rate of inflation dropped to its lowest level in just over four years, as firms saw a much weaker increase in purchase prices. Consequently, non-oil companies reduced their selling prices for the first time in six months.
“Sustaining and nurturing these positive trends, Saudi Arabia is laying the groundwork for a multifaceted and thriving economy that meets the aspirations of its people and the strategic goals of the nation,” said Al-Ghaith.
“With each uptick in the PMI and every incremental GDP growth, the Kingdom moves closer to realizing its ambitions of a diversified, sustainable economic future,” he concluded.
Global markets fall as Trump’s tariffs roil world trade
- Pakistan Stock Exchange falls rapidly, suspending trading for an hour after a 5% drop in KSE-100 index
- Middle East stock markets tumble as they struggled with dual hit of new US tariffs, oil prices decline
Global markets plunged Monday following last week’s two-day meltdown on Wall Street, and President Donald Trump said he won’t back down on his sweeping new tariffs, which have roiled global trade.
Countries are scrambling to figure out how to respond to the tariffs, with China and others retaliating quickly.
Trump’s tariff blitz fulfilled a key campaign promise as he acted without Congress to redraw the rules of the international trading system. It was a move decades in the making for Trump, who has long denounced foreign trade deals as unfair to the US
The higher rates are set to be collected beginning Wednesday, ushering in a new era of economic uncertainty with no clear end in sight.
Here’s the latest:
Chinese officials meet business representatives from Tesla and other US companies.
Chinese government officials met business representatives from Tesla, GE Healthcare and other US companies on Sunday. It called on them to issue “reasonable” statements and take “concrete actions” on addressing the issue of tariffs.
“The United States in recent days has used all sorts of excuses to announce indiscriminate tariffs on all trading partners, including China, severely harming the rules-based multilateral trade system,” said Ling Ji, a vice minister of commerce, at the meeting with 20 US companies.
“China’s countermeasures are not only a way to protect the rights and interests of companies, including American ones, but are also to urge the US to return to the right path of the multilateral trading system,” Ling added.
Ling also promised that China would remain open to foreign investment, according to a readout of the meeting from the Ministry of Commerce.
Malaysia wants Southeast Asia to present a united response to tariffs
Malaysia’s Trade Minister Zafrul Abdul Aziz said his country wants to forge a united response from Southeast Asia to the sweeping US tariffs.
Malaysia, which is the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations this year, will lead the regional bloc’s special Economic Ministers’ Meeting on April 10 in Kuala Lumpur to discuss the broader implication of the tariff measures on regional trade and investment, Zafrul told a news conference on Monday.
“We are looking at the investment flow, macroeconomic stability and ASEAN’s coordinated response to this tariff issue,” Zafrul said.
ASEAN leaders will also meet to discuss member states’ strategies and to mitigate potential disruptions to regional supply chain networks.
Pakistan plans to send a government delegation to Washington this month to discuss how to avoid the 29% tariffs imposed by the US on imports from Pakistan, officials said Monday.
The development came two days after Pakistan’s prime minister asked its finance minister to send him recommendations for resolving the issue. The US imports around $5 billion worth of textiles and other products from Pakistan, which heavily relies on loans from the International Monetary Fund and others.
The Pakistan Stock Exchange fell rapidly on Monday. The exchange suspended trading for an hour after a 5% drop in its main KSE-30 index.
Mideast markets follow oil prices lower
Middle East stock markets tumbled as they struggled with the dual hit of the new US tariffs and a sharp decline in oil prices, squeezing energy-producing nations that rely on those sales to power their economies and government spending.
Benchmark Brent crude is down by nearly 15% over the last five days of trading, with a barrel of oil costing just over $63. That’s down nearly 30% from a year ago, when a barrel cost over $90.
That cost per barrel is far lower than the estimated break-even price for producers. That’s coupled with the new tariffs, which saw the Gulf Cooperation Council states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates hit with 10% tariffs. Other Mideast nations face higher tariffs, like Iraq at 39% and Syria at 41%.
The Dubai Financial Market exchange fell 5% as it opened for the week. The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange fell 4%.
Markets that opened Sunday saw losses as well. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul stock exchange fell over 6% in trading. The giant of the exchange, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Aramco, fell over 5% on its own, wiping away billions in market capitalization for the world’s sixth-most-valuable company.
Beijing struck a note of confidence on Monday even as markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai tumbled.
“The sky won’t fall. Faced with the indiscriminate punches of US taxes, we know what we are doing and we have tools at our disposal,” wrote The People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s official mouthpiece.
China announced a slew of countermeasures on Friday evening aimed at Trump’s tariffs, including its own 34% tariffs on all goods from the US set to go in effect on Wednesday.
Australian dollar drops to levels last seen early in pandemic
The Australian dollar fell below 60 US cents on Monday for the first time since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The drop reflected concerns over the Chinese economy and market expectations for four interest rate cuts in Australia this calendar year, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said.
“What our modeling shows is that we expect there to be big hits to American growth and Chinese growth and a spike in American inflation as well,” Chalmers said.
“We expect more manageable impacts on the Australian economy, but we still do expect Australian GDP to take a hit and we expect there to be an impact on prices here as well,” he added.
The Trump administration assigned Australia the minimum baseline 10% tariff on imports in the United States. The US has enjoyed a trade surplus with Australia for decades.
Indian stocks fell sharply on Monday, seeing their biggest single-day drop in percentage terms since March 2020 amid the pandemic.
The benchmark BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 index both dropped about 5% after trading opened but then recovered slightly. Both were later trading down about 4 percent.
President Donald Trump said Sunday that he won’t back down on his sweeping tariffs on imports from most of the world unless countries even out their trade with the US, digging in on his plans to implement the taxes that have sent financial markets reeling, raised fears of a recession and upended the global trading system.
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said he didn’t want global markets to fall, but also that he wasn’t concerned about the massive sell-off either, adding, “sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”
His comments came as global financial markets appeared on track to continue sharp declines once trading resumes Monday, and after Trump’s aides sought to soothe market concerns by saying more than 50 nations had reached out about launching negotiations to lift the tariffs.
“I spoke to a lot of leaders, European, Asian, from all over the world,” Trump said. “They’re dying to make a deal. And I said, we’re not going to have deficits with your country. We’re not going to do that, because to me a deficit is a loss. We’re going to have surpluses or at worst, going to be breaking even.”
Asian markets plunged on Monday following last week’s two-day meltdown on Wall Street, and US President Donald Trump said he won’t back down on his sweeping tariffs on imports from most of the world unless countries even out their trade with the US
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index lost nearly 8% shortly after the market opened on Monday. By midday, it was down 6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 9.4%, while the Shanghai Composite index was down 6.2%, and South Korea’s Kospi lost 4.1%
US futures also signaled further weakness.
Market observers expect investors will face more wild swings in the days and weeks to come, with a short-term resolution to the trade war appearing unlikely.
