BAGHDAD: Iraqi Vice President Ayad Allawi on Monday warned there could be a “civil war” over the Kurdish-administered city of Kirkuk if talks over Kurdish independence are left unresolved.
Allawi, in an interview with The Associated Press, urged Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani, as well as Iraq’s central government and its Iranian-backed militias, to show restraint and resolve their disputes over the oil-rich city.
Ruling out a military solution to the crisis, Ihssan Al-Shimari, an adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi, told Arab News: “Talking about a civil war between Kurds and Arabs is an attempt to pressure both sides — Baghdad and Kurdistan — but the reality on the ground doesn’t indicate any of these expectations.”
Al-Shimari said: “The prime minister has flatly refused to fight Kurdish citizens and still relies on constitutional measures, which offer a wide range of options to the federal government to deal with the crisis.”
He added: “Kirkuk is a disputed area, and according to the constitution its administration has to go back to the Iraqi federal government.”
Kirkuk was included in Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence referendum last month, even though it falls outside the autonomous Kurdish region in the country’s northeast.
The ethnically mixed city has been administered by Kurdish forces since 2014, when the Iraqi military fled a Daesh advance.
The referendum was held despite strong objections from Baghdad, Ankara and Tehran. Barzani has not yet declared independence.
“Iraqis should be left alone to discuss their own problems without interference,” said Allawi. “Kirkuk has become a flashpoint.”
The head of the Asaib Al-Haq militia, Qais Khazali, on Sunday warned that the Kurds were planning to claim much of northern Iraq, including Kirkuk, for an independent state, after they voted for independence in a controversial but non-binding referendum two weeks ago.
He said it would be tantamount to a “foreign occupation,” reported the Afaq TV channel, which is close to the state-sanctioned militia.
Allawi, a former prime minister, said any move by the country’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs), which include Asaib Al-Haq, to enter Kirkuk would “damage all possibilities for unifying Iraq” and open the door to “violent conflict.”
He said if the government controls the PMUs, as it claims, it “should restrain them, rather than go into a kind of civil war.” Allawi also urged the Kurdish side “not to take aggressive measures to control these lands.”
Mohammed Naji, a lawmaker and a senior leader of Badr — one of the most prominent Iraqi Shiite militias — told Arab News: “It’s early to pick up the last option (confrontation). The federal government will use all available measures to contain the crisis, and using (military) power to impose federal authority (in Kirkuk) and preserve the unity of Iraqi lands and people will be the last option.”
Naji said: “From the beginning, we’ve said the referendum is unconstitutional. It violates the first item of the Iraqi constitution, and any action that aims to divide Iraq is unacceptable to all Iraqis.”
He added: “Resolving the problem of Kirkuk and the other disputed areas would be according to the constitution, and we can go back to talks (with the Kurds) under the umbrella of the constitution.”
He continued: “We’ve asked both parties (Baghdad and Irbil) to abide by the constitution, but if the Kurdish brothers insist on their stubbornness, this means they want to go with the hardest option, which is confrontation.”
Al-Abadi demanded that the Kurdistan Regional Government annul the referendum result, and called for joint administration of Kirkuk. Baghdad has closed Iraqi Kurdistan’s airspace to international flights.
Turkey and Iran have threatened punitive measures against the Kurdish region, fearing the encouragement of separatist sentiment among their own Kurdish populations.
Iraqi VP warns of ‘civil war’ over Kurdish-held Kirkuk
Iraqi VP warns of ‘civil war’ over Kurdish-held Kirkuk
Eyes turn to cricket’s short format as New Year franchise action gets underway
- The opening match of the DP World ILT20 takes place on Saturday between Mumbai Indians, last year’s winners, and Dubai Capitals
Last week’s column speculated that the final matches of the 2023-2025 World Test Championship may generate further tension in the race to join South Africa in the final at Lords in June.
As of Jan. 3, it was possible for either Australia, India or Sri Lanka to be that team. Australia led the pack, needing to beat India in the fifth and final Test in Sydney to secure the spot. This was achieved by six wickets, but not without some twists and turns.
To begin with, India’s captain, Rohit Sharma, announced before the match that he was going to stand down from the game. His recent form was poor, averaging 10.93 in his last eight Test matches. This prompted rumors of his impending retirement, which he quashed. His replacement, Jasprit Bumrah, chose for India to bat first on what he described as a “spicy pitch.” Australia’s bowlers took advantage, dismissing India for 185. Despite Bumrah leaving the field with back spasms, Australia were dismissed for 181.
With the game in the balance, Pat Cummins and Scott Boland claimed nine wickets between them to dismiss India for 157. The target of 162 to secure victory could have been daunting, but Bumrah’s continued absence reduced the potency of India’s attack. During the series, he had taken 32 wickets at the remarkable average of 13 runs per wicket. This was more than any other Indian bowler ever on a tour of Australia — enough to be player of the series, but not a member of the winning team.
A further twist was the dismissal of Steve Smith in Australia’s second innings for four runs. Agonizingly, this left him one run short of a total 10,000 Test runs, so he must wait a little longer to achieve that milestone. In a final twist, Australia’s victory was sealed by 31-year-old debutant Beau Webster, with an unbeaten 39 to add to 57 in the first innings.
The Indian players now have a short break until Jan. 22, when England arrive for a five-match T20I series and a three-match ODI series. Several Australian players will play matches in the Big Bash T20 League before a two-match Test series in Sri Lanka starts on Jan. 29.
It is to the short format that many eyes will now turn. The BBL runs until Jan. 27. New Zealand’s Super Smash ends on Feb. 2, whilst the Bangladesh Premier League will finish on Feb. 11. In South Africa. the Betway SA20 opened on Jan. 9, followed by the DP World ILT20 on Jan. 11 in the UAE. The draft for the Pakistan Super League is set to take place on Jan. 11, with the start of the tournament pushed back to mid-April so as not to clash with the Champions Trophy. It will, however, clash with the IPL.
Last year there was some disquiet about the movement of players between tournaments. This applied mainly to those who left the ILT20 early to join the PSL and those whose team could not make the final stages of SA20 so switched to ILT20. It is to be hoped the ILT20 squads are more stable in 2025. The league and its franchises have been able to attract some stellar names, with four of especial interest to this column.
Phil Salt, who is currently ranked second for T20I batting in the world and has captained England’s T20I team, played in the SA20 in 2024, before joining the later stages of ILT20. This year, he is committed to the Abu Dhabi Knight Riders.
Pakistan’s Fakhar Zaman last played for his country in the T20 World Cup in June 2024, after which he fell ill. Zaman scored a winning century in the 2017 Champions Trophy and may get another chance in that tournament in February. Prior to that, his talents will be exhibited with the Desert Vipers in ILT20.
Tim Southee ended his illustrious New Zealand career in December 2024. He captained his country in all three formats, claiming 776 wickets, split 50:50 between Tests and short format. In a quick adjustment, he will captain the Sharjah franchise in ILT20. He has also entered the PSL draft.
Dipendra Singh Airee of Nepal has only rubbed shoulders with those in elite international cricket. He began his career as a batter, but his off-spin bowling has developed, whilst his fielding is dynamic. Last April in Oman he joined a select band of players who have scored six sixes in an over. His progress with the Gulf Giants in ILT20 will be watched closely.
The opening match on Jan. 11, is between last year’s winners, Mumbai Indians, and finalists Dubai Capitals. Prior to that, Bollywood stars will formally open the tournament. Channels on which live matches will be shown are Abu Dhabi TV, Dubai TV, ILT20’s YouTube stream and Myco. The market in India is served by the Zee Network of 15 linear TV channels. It is also free to view on India’s leading OTT platform, Zee5. Matches can also be accessed in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Caribbean, Nepal and, in Europe, via Samsung TV Plus and Rakuten TV. This level of international exposure earned ILT20 over 220 million viewers in 2024, making it the second most watched T20 league after the IPL.
One area in which ILT20 is making strenuous strides to supplement this virtual audience is to increase live audiences. This is easier said than done. Building brand profiles of the six ILT20 franchises is a long-term commitment, both internationally and locally. The latter takes a generation. Graeme Smith, SA20 commissioner, has been critical of ILT20, saying “it is not good for the game, with no investment back into local cricket.” This does not take proper account of ILT20’s policies, its local involvement and, most importantly, the vastly different history and culture of cricket in the two territories. It seems like the battle of the franchises is warming up.
Banking sector in Kuwait, Qatar and UAE to stay stable in 2025: S&P Global
RIYADH: Banks in Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE are expected to maintain stability in 2025, supported by strong capital buffers, favorable economic conditions, and supportive government policies, according to a new analysis.
In Kuwait, S&P Global forecasts improved asset quality, driven by a stronger economy and lower interest rates.
The banking sector is well-positioned to deal with potential geopolitical stress in the region, with stronger lending growth offsetting the negative impact of lower interest rates on profitability, it added.
S&P Global’s analysis echoes the views shared by Fitch Ratings in November 2024, which stated that the standalone credit profiles of Islamic banks in Kuwait are expected to remain stable in 2025, supported by favorable operating conditions.
“After an estimated 2.3 percent contraction in 2024, we expect Kuwait’s GDP growth will rebound to 3 percent in 2025 as OPEC+ oil production restrictions are gradually eased, and project implementation and reform momentum improves,” said Puneet Tuli, S&P Global Ratings credit analyst.
The report added that accelerated reforms following last year’s political changes could improve the pace of reform and growth prospects for the economy, “which in turn would support higher lending growth for the banking system.”
According to the report, the credit losses in the Kuwaiti banking sector are approaching cyclical lows.
S&P Global added that banks are likely to resort to write-offs to limit the rise in the nonperforming loan ratio, supported by strong provisioning buffers.
The analysis further noted that banks in Kuwait operate with robust capital buffers and typically retain 50 percent or more of their profits, which supports their capitalization.
The US-based agency also highlighted that Kuwaiti banks’ funding structures benefit from a solid core customer deposit base and a net external asset position.
“Deposits from government and public institutions have experienced some volatility in the past, as these entities seek to diversify their deposits among local and foreign banks. However, we believe that government support to systemically important banks will be forthcoming if needed,” said S&P Global.
It added: “Private sector deposits from corporations and households have been stable and dominate Kuwaiti banks’ funding base.”
Qatar’s outlook
In Qatar, S&P Global expects continued strong performance for banks in 2025, driven by strong capitalization and ample liquidity. The rise in liquefied natural gas production, along with its impact on the non-hydrocarbon economy, is expected to support credit growth in the next two to three years.
The report added that local funding sources will play an increasing role in supporting credit growth among Qatari banks, driven by slower public sector deleveraging.
S&P Global also noted that the Qatari government’s strong support for its banking sector is expected to mitigate the risk of external debt outflows in the event of escalating geopolitical risks.
“Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are high but we currently do not expect a full-scale regional conflict, and we anticipate macroeconomic conditions in Qatar will remain broadly stable,” said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Juili Pargaonkar.
Forecast for the UAE
In the UAE, S&P Global forecasts improved asset quality metrics and lower credit losses in 2025, driven by a robust domestic economy.
The agency expects banks in the emirates to maintain strong capital buffers, robust funding profiles, and continued government support in 2025, which will underpin their resilience.
The analysis also noted that banks in the UAE have experienced a significant increase in deposits over the past three years, which will help sustain their strong growth momentum in 2025.
“Deposit growth has improved in recent years as private corporations and retail depositors prioritized saving over spending, and higher interest rates provided better yields on deposits,” said S&P Global.
It added: “We expect strong deposit growth to continue through 2025, given the non-oil economy remains supportive, leading to stronger cash flow generation from corporations.”
US, Arab mediators make some progress in Gaza peace talks, no deal yet, sources say
- Israeli strikes continue amid ongoing peace talks
- Hamas demands end to war for hostage release
CAIRO: US and Arab mediators have made some progress in their efforts to reach a ceasefire accord between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, but not enough to seal a deal, Palestinian sources close to the talks said on Thursday.
As talks continued in Qatar, the Israeli military carried out strikes across the enclave, killing at least 17 people, Palestinian medics said.
Qatar, the US and Egypt are making a major push to reach a deal to halt fighting in the 15-month conflict and free remaining hostages held by Islamist group Hamas before President Joe Biden leaves office.
President-elect Donald Trump has warned there will be “hell to pay,” if the hostages are not released by his inauguration on Jan. 20.
On Thursday, a Palestinian official close to the mediation effort said the absence of a deal so far did not mean the talks were going nowhere and said this was the most serious attempt so far to reach an accord.
“There are extensive negotiations, mediators and negotiators are talking about every word and every detail. There is a breakthrough when it comes narrowing old existing gaps but there is no deal yet,” he told Reuters, without giving further details.
On Tuesday, Israeli Foreign Ministry Director General Eden Bar-Tal said Israel was fully committed to reaching an agreement to return its hostages from Gaza but faces obstruction from Hamas.
The two sides have been an at impasse for a year over two key issues. Hamas has said it will only free its remaining hostages if Israel agrees to end the war and withdraw all its troops from Gaza. Israel says it will not end the war until Hamas is dismantled and all hostages are free.
Severe humanitarian crisis
On Thursday, the death toll from Israel’s military strikes included eight Palestinians killed in a house in Jabalia, the largest of Gaza’s eight historic refugee camps, where Israeli forces have operated for more than three months. Nine others, including a father and his three children, died in two separate airstrikes on two houses in central Gaza Strip, health officials said.
There was no Israeli military comment on the two incidents.
More than 46,000 people have been killed in the Gaza war, according to Palestinian health officials. Much of the enclave has been laid waste and most of the territory’s 2.1 million people have been displaced multiple times and face acute shortages of food and medicine, humanitarian agencies say.
Israel denies hindering humanitarian relief to Gaza and says it has facilitated the distribution of hundreds of truckloads of food, water, medical supplies and shelter equipment to warehouses and shelters over the past week.
Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and capturing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. On Wednesday, the Israeli military said troops had recovered the body of Israeli Bedouin hostage Youssef Al-Ziyadna, along with evidence that was still being examined suggesting his son Hamza, taken on the same day, may also be dead.
“We will continue to make every effort to return all of our hostages, the living and the deceased,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement.
Saudi domestic tourism driving travel sector growth, Almosafer CEO says
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s domestic tourism is fueling a significant expansion in the Kingdom’s travel sector, with domestic bookings now making up over 40 percent of Almosafer’s overall travel market, according to CEO Muzzammil Ahussain.
This growth is underscored by a 45 percent year-on-year increase in domestic flight bookings in 2024, alongside a 39 percent rise in room night bookings, according to Almosafer’s latest travel trend report, released during the third Saudi Tourism Forum held in Riyadh.
The surge is linked to the country’s expanding tourism offerings and enhanced connectivity through low-cost carriers, with family and group travel seeing a particular boost, rising over 70 percent, the report added.
“The country has invested heavily in creating offerings and events to support domestic tourism,” Ahussain told Arab News on the sidelines of the event. “We see continued strength and sustainability in this, so we remain focused on domestic tourism.”
Almosafer, a Saudi travel company and part of Seera Group, is benefiting from this trend as domestic tourism becomes more sustainable. “In the report, over 40 percent of all of our bookings are now domestic,” Ahussain explained. “That doesn’t mean international travel is slowing down; overall travel is growing.”
He said flight prices dropped 7 percent year on year, prompting higher spending in destinations. “People are spending more on hotels, staying longer, and spending on experiences and events,” Ahussain said. “So overall, total spend is increasing.”
Despite the growth, challenges remain. Almosafer CEO said that the limited hotel supply during peak times, such as Riyadh season, leads to higher rates and makes it difficult for travelers to find accommodations.
“We’ve already seen a number of initiatives to improve hotel capacity and rooms across the country,” Ahussain said, adding that such improvements would make domestic tourism more attractive at all levels, from luxury to economy.
The company’s ongoing efforts to enhance partnerships with regional authorities and airlines are also key to this growth, and Almosafer said it collaborates closely with the Saudi Tourism Authority and regional bodies like the Aseer Investment Authority.
“We’ve had a number of signings at the Saudi Tourism Forum with different authorities from around the country to promote and market key destinations,” he added.
Ahussain also highlighted the strong partnerships Almosafer has with low-cost carriers like flynas and flyadeal, as well as its new partnership with Riyadh Air, which is set to launch later in 2025.
Looking ahead, Ahussain is optimistic about the impact of global events, such as Expo 2030 and the 2034 FIFA World Cup, on the Kingdom’s tourism sector. “These projects and events, as we saw with Expo 2020 Dubai, help build a brand for a city or country, and that brand creates awareness,” Ahussain said.
He continued: “When people come, whether domestically or internationally, we are working to build a foundation that supports them throughout their travel — before, during, and after these events.”
Almosafer is also preparing for an initial public offering as part of its long-term strategy, with a target IPO date in 2025 or 2026.
“In November 2023, Seera Group announced that Almosafer would be targeted for an IPO in two to three years,” he said.
“We’re still on track with that plan and working toward it.”
With domestic tourism growing rapidly, Almosafer is enhancing its digital offerings through partnerships aimed at streamlining travel services.
During the forum, Almosafer signed a memorandum of understanding with the Saudi Tourism Authority to integrate digital platforms, enhancing access to travel services.
Ahussain explained that the partnership also aimed to improve Sara Al, the smart guide for Saudi tourism, by adding booking services for flights and accommodations.
Lebanon’s parliament fails to elect new president; Aoun falls 15 votes short of required 86 in first round
- Lebanese army commander Joseph Aoun is the leading candidate
- He is widely seen as the preferred candidate of the US and Saudi Arabia
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s parliament yet again failed to elect a president on Thursday, after 12 previous attempts to choose a successor to former President Michel Aoun, whose term ended in October 2022.
Lebanese army commander Joseph Aoun, the leading candidate, failed to muster enough support – getting only 71 votes or 15 short of the required 86 in the first round of voting.
He is widely seen as the preferred candidate of the United States and Saudi Arabia, whose assistance Lebanon will need as it seeks to rebuild after a 14-month conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Lebanon’s parliament speaker Nabih Berri adjourned the session for two hours of consultations, after a first round of voting failed to produce enough votes for Aoun.
Two political sources said Aoun was likely to cross the 86-vote threshold in a second session later in the day.
Hezbollah previously backed another candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, the leader of a small Christian party in northern Lebanon with close ties to former Syrian President Bashar Assad.
However, on Wednesday, Frangieh announced he had withdrawn from the race and endorsed Aoun, apparently clearing the way for the army chief.
Lebanon’s fractious sectarian power-sharing system is prone to deadlock, both for political and procedural reasons. The small, crisis-battered Mediterranean country has been through several extended presidential vacancies, with the longest lasting nearly 2 1/2 years between May 2014 and October 2016. It ended when former President Michel Aoun was elected.
As a sitting army commander, Joseph Aoun is technically barred from becoming president by Lebanon’s constitution. The ban has been waived before, but it means that Aoun faces additional procedural hurdles.
Under normal circumstances, a presidential candidate in Lebanon can be elected by a two-thirds majority of the 128-member house in the first round of voting, or by a simple majority in a subsequent round.
But because of the constitutional issues surrounding his election, Aoun would need a two-thirds majority even in the second round.
Other contenders include Jihad Azour, a former finance minister who is now the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund; and Elias Al-Baysari, the acting head of Lebanon’s General Security agency.
The next head of state will face daunting challenges apart from implementing the ceasefire agreement that ended the Israel-Hezbollah war and seeking funds for reconstruction.
Lebanon is six years into an economic and financial crisis that decimated the country’s currency and wiped out the savings of many Lebanese. The cash-strapped state electricity company provides only a few hours of power a day.
The country’s leaders reached a preliminary agreement with the IMF for a bail-out package in 2022 but have made limited progress on reforms required to clinch the deal.
