NAIROBI: Last weekend’s truck bombing in Mogadishu killed at least 358 people, making it the deadliest in Somalia’s history, an attack that analysts say underscores the fragility of the internationally-backed government.
With Somalia’s security forces disorganized and riddled with corruption, and deepening suspicion between central and regional governments, the Oct. 14 blast highlights the Al-Qaeda-aligned Al-Shabab’s ability to exploit state weakness and prosecute asymmetric war to deadly effect.
Militarily, the situation has been largely static in recent months.
Evicted from the capital in 2011, the Al-Shabab has maintained its control in many rural parts of central and southern Somalia. “There have been no recent strategic gains” on either side, says Roland Marchal, a researcher at Sciences Po in Paris — neither for the Al-Shabab nor the Somali army, backed by African Union troops and an increasingly active US military.
“On the surface at least, what we see is stagnation,” says Matt Bryden, founder of the Nairobi-based Sahan Research think-tank, who points out that the Al-Shabab has proven resilient, able to replace commanders and fighters killed by US airstrikes.
The International Crisis Group (ICG), however, said Friday that Al-Shabab has recently regained control of several areas outside Mogadishu, including Barire, a strategically significant town on a major road 45 km from the capital.
“Averting attacks in Mogadishu is ever harder when surrounding districts revert back to Al-Shabab control,” the ICG says.
The Al-Shabab’s intelligence network allows it to exploit flaws and weakness in the security apparatus.
For example, the recent Al-Shabab gains around Mogadishu were, the ICG says, permitted by the withdrawal of government forces in a row over unpaid salaries.
Attempts to establish new security checkpoints at the city’s gateways have also been subverted, as happened last Saturday, when the truck, though packed with explosives, was waved through by officers.
“We know from past experience that they’ve been able to infiltrate security forces, or to put their own people in government uniforms,” says Bryden.
Also significant: The bombing last weekend came days after both the country’s defense minister and army chief resigned, without explanation. The simultaneous departure weakened President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, a situation used by Al-Shabab to its advantage.
“It is not that the Al-Shabab is very strong, it is that the others are really weak,” Marchal says.
Federalism in Somalia has existed on paper since 2004, but only began to take shape five years ago. There are now five federal regional states, not including Somaliland, which claims independence and does not recognize the central government.
Relations between Mogadishu and the regions are fraught, as each struggles for a greater share of power and seeks foreign allies.
Security stakes are high because if the embryonic national army is only deployed in and around the capital, and the 22,000 AU troops secure outlying urban centers, then it is left to regional militias to fight the Al-Shabab in the bulk of the country.
Recently, the diplomatic crisis pitting the UAE and Saudi Arabia against Qatar “has aggravated such friction,” says ICG.
Some federal regional states have taken sides with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to the dismay of Mogadishu, which has sought to remain neutral in a bid to maintain the substantial it receives from both sides.
Marchal deplores the “chaos brought by the Gulf crisis, where any federal president, under the pretext of receiving funding, makes ill-judged foreign policy declarations.”
“Unless the government shifts its posture and engages with the federal member states so they become partners in fighting Al-Shabab, instead of trying to fight both Al-Shabab and the federal member states, I don’t think we’re going to see very much progress,” says Bryden.
ICG says political opponents could seek to take advantage of the latest crisis to bring down the president. It urges him to “work quickly to improve relations with federal states” and resolve quarrels over distribution of resources. Otherwise, analysts warn, the only winner will be the Al-Shabab. The worsening violence has prompted some UN officials to raise alarm over “early warning signs of genocide” in CAR, as did former UN aid chief Stephen O’Brien in late August.
Adama Dieng — the UN’s special adviser for the prevention of genocide who visited the country in early October — denied the country was in a “pre-genocide situation” but said the situation there is “serious.”
There are still “indicators” that could result “in crimes of genocide” if they are not tackled, he said.
Touadera, whose election with the full support of the UN and France sparked a wave of hope, also pushed back on the warnings, saying “talk about genocide at this stage... is not justified.”
Guterres previously said there was “ethnic cleansing” in many parts of the country, but he will invariably be asked to comment about genocide.
To the displaced population, a visit from Guterres is a welcome relief.
“The peacekeepers must help us more and be more visible,” said Regis, who was forced to flee from the east of the country to Bangui. “It is imperative that the UN chief make them understand that.”
Deadliest ever bombing highlights Somalia’s weakness
Deadliest ever bombing highlights Somalia’s weakness
Spain royals to visit flood epicenter after chaotic trip: media
CHIVA, Spain: Spain’s royals will make a highly anticipated return to the epicenter of catastrophic floods on Tuesday after a chaotic trip where survivors hurled mud and insults at them, local media said.
The European country is reeling from the October 29 disaster that has killed 227 people and sparked widespread fury at the governing class for their perceived mishandling of the crisis.
That outrage boiled over in the ground-zero town of Paiporta in the eastern Valencia region when King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia visited on November 3, in extraordinary scenes that stunned the world.
Furious residents chanting “murderers” pelted them with mud and projectiles as they struggled to wade through the crowds, while Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez was hastily evacuated.
The monarchs have since pledged to return to the Valencia region after another trip to the devastated town of Chiva was canceled that day.
The royal palace told AFP it would give details later Tuesday for the visit.
Felipe and Letizia are returning to keep their promise and console survivors in Chiva where the floods ripped away lives and homes, said Vicente Garrido, professor of constitutional law at the University of Valencia.
Residents will be more welcoming on this occasion because “minds are calmer” despite “the enormous pain,” and royal visits are “an honor” for any town, he told AFP.
Public anger
Whereas Sanchez and the Valencia region’s leader Carlos Mazon left early last time, the mud-spattered royal couple braved the popular anger to speak with victims.
That gesture was “viewed very positively by everyone” and will afford them “a reception befitting who they are” this week, said Garrido.
Their willingness to travel and risk personal harm earlier this month “strengthens the image” of the monarchy, Garrido said.
Popular ire has instead targeted elected politicians, particularly Mazon because the regions manage the response to natural disasters in Spain’s decentralized state.
Local authorities in many cases warned residents of the impending catastrophe too late and stricken towns depended on volunteers for essential supplies for days in the absence of the state.
The conservative Mazon admitted “mistakes” and apologized in the regional parliament on Friday but refused to resign and vowed to lead Valencia’s gigantic reconstruction effort.
Sanchez is due to appear in parliament this month to explain the left-wing central government’s handling of the floods.
UK and India to resume stalled free trade talks
- The two countries have spent nearly three years negotiating what would be a milestone for Britain as it continues to seek alternative markets
London: Britain and India will resume stalled talks to agree a free-trade deal, the two countries said after their leaders met at the G20 summit in Brazil.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who took power in London in July, hailed his meeting with Indian counterpart Narendra Modi as “very productive” and vowed that a trade pact with Delhi would boost UK growth.
“A new trade deal will support jobs and prosperity in the UK — and represent a step forward in our mission to deliver growth and opportunity across the country,” he posted on X late Monday.
Hours earlier, Starmer’s office confirmed the two countries would relaunch the talks “in the new year” as Britain sought “a new strategic partnership with India.”
That will include “deepening cooperation in areas like security, education, technology, and climate change,” Downing Street said in a statement summarising the meeting of the two leaders.
India’s foreign ministry said both leaders had “underlined the importance of resuming the Free Trade Agreement negotiations at an early date.”
It added they had “expressed confidence in the ability of the negotiating teams, to address the remaining issues to mutual satisfaction, leading to a balanced, mutually beneficial and forward looking Free Trade Agreement.”
The two countries have spent nearly three years negotiating what would be a milestone for Britain as it continues to seek alternative markets after its departure from the European Union.
UK and India to resume stalled free trade talks
The previous Conservative government, ousted by Starmer’s Labour party in July, had hit several roadblocks in its talks with Delhi over the trade pact.
In exchange for lowering tariffs on British imports such as whisky, India has pushed for more UK work and study visas for its citizens.
But Starmer’s Downing Street predecessor, Rishi Sunak, took an increasingly tough stance on immigration during his 20-month tenure as he faced a backlash over record migration levels in the wake of the Covid pandemic.
His government unveiled a raft of measures in late 2023 aimed at curbing the numbers.
Starmer has prioritized kickstarting anaemic UK economic growth but his administration is also under pressure on the contentious issue.
Britain has secured a number of post-Brexit trade deals, including with Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, and is set to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) next month.
But a much sought-after trade deal with the United States remains elusive, and striking a deal Canada also faltered earlier this year.
Germany sees damaging of Baltic Sea cables as act of sabotage, minister says
The damaging of two undersea fiber-optic communications cables in the Baltic Sea must be seen as an act of sabotage, although it is still unclear who is responsible, German Defense minister Boris Pistorius said on Tuesday.
“No one believes that these cables were cut accidentally. I also don’t want to believe in versions that these were anchors that accidentally caused damage over these cables,” Pistorius said before a meeting with EU defense ministers in Brussels.
“Therefore we have to state, without knowing specifically who it came from, that it is a ‘hybrid’ action. And we also have to assume, without knowing it yet, that it is sabotage.”
Kyiv urges ‘decisive action’ after report on banned chemical weapons
Kyiv: Kyiv on Tuesday blamed Russia and urged action after the international chemical weapons watchdog said banned riot control gas had been found in Ukrainian soil samples from the front line.
Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of using chemical weapons in the conflict, with Kyiv’s Western allies claiming Moscow has employed banned weapons.
“We call on our partners to take decisive action to stop the aggressor and bring those responsible for crimes to justice. True peace can only be achieved through strength, not appeasement,” the foreign ministry said.
“Russia’s use of banned chemicals on the battlefield once again demonstrates Russia’s chronic disregard for international law,” a statement added.
Russia is yet to react to the report by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which brought the first confirmation of the use of riot control gas in areas where active fighting is taking place in Ukraine.
The OPCW’s Chemical Weapons Convention strictly bans the use of riot control agents including CS, a type of tear gas, outside riot control situations when it is used as “a method of warfare.”
CS gas is non-lethal but causes sensory irritation including to the lungs, skin and eyes.
The evidence handed over by Ukraine to the OPCW enabled it to “corroborate... the chain of custody of the three samples collected from a trench in Ukraine located along the confrontation lines with the opposing troops, had been maintained,” the organization said.
It stressed however that the report did “not seek to identify the source or origin of the toxic chemical.”
OPCW director-general Fernando Arias “expressed grave concern” over the findings.
“All 193 OPCW Member States, including the Russian Federation and Ukraine, have committed never to develop, produce, acquire, stockpile, transfer or use chemical weapons,” he said in a statement.
India to send 5,000 extra troops to quell Manipur unrest
- Fresh periodic clashes of troubled state located in country’s northeast have killed 16 people so far
- Manipur rocked by clashes since 18 months between Hindu majority and Christian Kuki community
NEW DELHI: India will deploy an extra 5,000 paramilitary troops to quell unrest in Manipur, authorities said Tuesday, a week after 16 people were killed in fresh clashes in the troubled state.
Manipur in India’s northeast has been rocked by periodic clashes for more than 18 months between the predominantly Hindu Meitei majority and the mainly Christian Kuki community, dividing the state into ethnic enclaves.
Ten Kuki militants were killed when they attempted to assault police last week, prompting the apparent reprisal killing of six Meitei civilians, whose bodies were found in Jiribam district days later.
New Delhi has “ordered 50 additional companies of paramilitary forces to go to Manipur,” a government source in New Delhi with knowledge of the matter told AFP on condition of anonymity, as they were not authorized to speak with media.
Each company of the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF), a paramilitary unit overseen by the home ministry and responsible for internal security, has 100 troops.
The Business Standard newspaper reported that the additional forces would be deployed in the state by the end of the week.
India already has thousands of troops attempting to keep the peace in the conflict that has killed at least 200 people since it began 18 months ago.
Manipur has been subject to periodic Internet shutdowns and curfews since the violence began last year.
Both were reimposed in the state capital Imphal on Saturday after the discovery of the six bodies prompted violent protests by the Meitei community.
The ethnic strife has also displaced tens of thousands of people in the state, which borders war-torn Myanmar. Incensed crowds in the city had attempted to storm the homes of several local politicians.
Local media reports said several homes of lawmakers from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which governs the state, were damaged in arson attacks during the unrest.
Long-standing tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities revolve around competition for land and jobs. Rights groups have accused local leaders of exacerbating ethnic divisions for political gain.
