NAIROBI: Last weekend’s truck bombing in Mogadishu killed at least 358 people, making it the deadliest in Somalia’s history, an attack that analysts say underscores the fragility of the internationally-backed government.
With Somalia’s security forces disorganized and riddled with corruption, and deepening suspicion between central and regional governments, the Oct. 14 blast highlights the Al-Qaeda-aligned Al-Shabab’s ability to exploit state weakness and prosecute asymmetric war to deadly effect.
Militarily, the situation has been largely static in recent months.
Evicted from the capital in 2011, the Al-Shabab has maintained its control in many rural parts of central and southern Somalia. “There have been no recent strategic gains” on either side, says Roland Marchal, a researcher at Sciences Po in Paris — neither for the Al-Shabab nor the Somali army, backed by African Union troops and an increasingly active US military.
“On the surface at least, what we see is stagnation,” says Matt Bryden, founder of the Nairobi-based Sahan Research think-tank, who points out that the Al-Shabab has proven resilient, able to replace commanders and fighters killed by US airstrikes.
The International Crisis Group (ICG), however, said Friday that Al-Shabab has recently regained control of several areas outside Mogadishu, including Barire, a strategically significant town on a major road 45 km from the capital.
“Averting attacks in Mogadishu is ever harder when surrounding districts revert back to Al-Shabab control,” the ICG says.
The Al-Shabab’s intelligence network allows it to exploit flaws and weakness in the security apparatus.
For example, the recent Al-Shabab gains around Mogadishu were, the ICG says, permitted by the withdrawal of government forces in a row over unpaid salaries.
Attempts to establish new security checkpoints at the city’s gateways have also been subverted, as happened last Saturday, when the truck, though packed with explosives, was waved through by officers.
“We know from past experience that they’ve been able to infiltrate security forces, or to put their own people in government uniforms,” says Bryden.
Also significant: The bombing last weekend came days after both the country’s defense minister and army chief resigned, without explanation. The simultaneous departure weakened President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, a situation used by Al-Shabab to its advantage.
“It is not that the Al-Shabab is very strong, it is that the others are really weak,” Marchal says.
Federalism in Somalia has existed on paper since 2004, but only began to take shape five years ago. There are now five federal regional states, not including Somaliland, which claims independence and does not recognize the central government.
Relations between Mogadishu and the regions are fraught, as each struggles for a greater share of power and seeks foreign allies.
Security stakes are high because if the embryonic national army is only deployed in and around the capital, and the 22,000 AU troops secure outlying urban centers, then it is left to regional militias to fight the Al-Shabab in the bulk of the country.
Recently, the diplomatic crisis pitting the UAE and Saudi Arabia against Qatar “has aggravated such friction,” says ICG.
Some federal regional states have taken sides with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to the dismay of Mogadishu, which has sought to remain neutral in a bid to maintain the substantial it receives from both sides.
Marchal deplores the “chaos brought by the Gulf crisis, where any federal president, under the pretext of receiving funding, makes ill-judged foreign policy declarations.”
“Unless the government shifts its posture and engages with the federal member states so they become partners in fighting Al-Shabab, instead of trying to fight both Al-Shabab and the federal member states, I don’t think we’re going to see very much progress,” says Bryden.
ICG says political opponents could seek to take advantage of the latest crisis to bring down the president. It urges him to “work quickly to improve relations with federal states” and resolve quarrels over distribution of resources. Otherwise, analysts warn, the only winner will be the Al-Shabab. The worsening violence has prompted some UN officials to raise alarm over “early warning signs of genocide” in CAR, as did former UN aid chief Stephen O’Brien in late August.
Adama Dieng — the UN’s special adviser for the prevention of genocide who visited the country in early October — denied the country was in a “pre-genocide situation” but said the situation there is “serious.”
There are still “indicators” that could result “in crimes of genocide” if they are not tackled, he said.
Touadera, whose election with the full support of the UN and France sparked a wave of hope, also pushed back on the warnings, saying “talk about genocide at this stage... is not justified.”
Guterres previously said there was “ethnic cleansing” in many parts of the country, but he will invariably be asked to comment about genocide.
To the displaced population, a visit from Guterres is a welcome relief.
“The peacekeepers must help us more and be more visible,” said Regis, who was forced to flee from the east of the country to Bangui. “It is imperative that the UN chief make them understand that.”
Deadliest ever bombing highlights Somalia’s weakness
Deadliest ever bombing highlights Somalia’s weakness
India, UK to resume free trade talks next year
- For India, Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with UK is of ‘immense priority,’ Modi says
- Previous sticking points in talks include India’s demand for more visas for students, professionals
NEW DELHI: India and the UK are set to resume talks on a free trade deal, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s office said on Tuesday, following his meeting with British PM Keir Starmer on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Brazil.
The two countries first started discussing a free trade agreement in 2022, with the aim of doubling bilateral trade by 2030 from over $31 billion then.
The FTA discussions have stalled since, though total trade between India and Britain — currently the world’s fifth- and sixth-largest economies — was worth $42 billion in the 12 months to June this year.
Modi and Starmer met for the first time in Rio de Janeiro, where they agreed to strengthen cooperation and restart the talks.
“Both leaders underlined the importance of resuming the Free Trade Agreement negotiations at an early date and expressed confidence in the ability of the negotiating teams to address the remaining issues to mutual satisfaction,” Modi’s office said in a statement.
“The two leaders directed their ministers and senior officials to work toward faster implementation of the various understandings that form part of the India-UK Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.”
Free trade negotiations will restart early next year, according to a statement issued by Starmer’s office, with the UK seeking a “new strategic partnership” that covers deeper cooperation in security, education, technology and climate change.
Their strategic partnership was an “immense priority” for India, Modi wrote on X.
“In the coming years, we are eager to work closely in areas such as technology, green energy, security, innovation and technology. We also want to add strength to trade as well as cultural linkages,” he said.
The talks have been delayed for a number of reasons, including political turmoil in the UK and elections in both countries, said Shairee Malhotra, deputy director of the strategic studies program at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.
“With a more stable government in the UK now and the deal holding bipartisan support, the time is ripe to resume negotiations,” Malhotra told Arab News.
But there are “contentious issues” that they need to resolve, including India wanting a more liberalized visa regime for its professionals and students and the country’s steep import duty on British whiskey.
“These demands on both sides need ironing out in order for the FTA to be concluded. But there is an immense amount of political will on both sides and India too has recently adopted a more open and forward-looking approach to trade deals,” Malhotra said.
There is also a strong geopolitical aspect attached to the deal now, with both Britain and India seeking to diversify their trade and supply chains to reduce dependencies on China and the victory of Donald Trump in the recent US presidential election likely factoring in during negotiations.
“In the context of a second Trump presidency and his penchant for tariffs, the FTA, with its potential to increase trade, investment and jobs, may assume greater significance,” Malhotra said.
G20 summit calls for more aid to Gaza, end to war in Ukraine
- Declaration refers to “catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza and the escalation in Lebanon”
- Affirms Palestinian right to self-determination, reiterates “unwavering commitment” to two-state solution
RIO DE JANEIRO: Leaders of the world’s 20 major economies called for a global pact to combat hunger, more aid for war-torn Gaza and an end to hostilities in the Mideast and Ukraine, issuing a joint declaration Monday that was heavy on generalities but short of details on how to accomplish those goals.
The joint statement was endorsed by group members but fell short of complete unanimity. It also called for a future global tax on billionaires and for reforms allowing the eventual expansion of the United Nation Security Council beyond its five current permanent members.
At the start of the three-day meeting which formally ends Wednesday, experts doubted Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could convince the assembled leaders to hammer out any agreement at all in a gathering rife with uncertainty over the incoming administration of US President-elect Donald Trump, and heightened global tensions over wars in the Mideast and Ukraine.
Argentina challenged some of the language in initial drafts and was the one country that did not endorse the complete document.
“Although generic, it is a positive surprise for Brazil,” said Thomas Traumann, an independent political consultant and former Brazilian minister. “There was a moment when there was a risk of no declaration at all. Despite the caveats, it is a good result for Lula.”
Taking place just over a year after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the declaration referred to the “catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza and the escalation in Lebanon,” stressing the urgent need to expand humanitarian assistance and better protect civilians.
“Affirming the Palestinian right to self-determination, we reiterate our unwavering commitment to the vision of the two-State solution where Israel and a Palestinian State live side by side in peace,” it said.
It did not mention Israel’s suffering or of the 100 or so hostages still held by Hamas. Israel isn’t a G20 member. The war has so far killed more than 43,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health officials, and more than 3,500 people in Lebanon following Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.
The omitted acknowledgment of Israel’s distress appeared to run contrary to US President Joe Biden’s consistent backing of Israel’s right to defend itself. It’s something Biden always notes in public, even when speaking about the deprivation of Palestinians.
During a meeting with G20 leaders before the declaration was hammered home, Biden expressed his view that Hamas is solely to blame for the war and called on fellow leaders to “increase the pressure on Hamas” to accept a ceasefire deal.
Biden’s decision to ease restrictions on Ukraine’s use of longer-range US missiles to allow that country to strike more deeply inside Russia also played into the meetings,
“The United States strongly supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Everyone around this table in my view should, as well,” Biden said during the summit.
Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend the meeting , and instead sent his foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov. Putin has avoided such summits after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant that obliges member states to arrest him.
The G20 declaration highlighted the human suffering in Ukraine while calling for peace, without naming Russia.
“The declaration avoids pointing the finger at the culprits,” said Paulo Velasco, an international relations professor at the State University of Rio de Janeiro. “That is, it doesn’t make any critical mention of Israel or Russia, but it highlights the dramatic humanitarian situations in both cases.”
The entire declaration lacks specificity, Velasco added.
“It is very much in line with what Brazil hoped for ... but if we really analyze it carefully, it is very much a declaration of intent. It is a declaration of good will on various issues, but we have very few concrete, tangible measures.”
Fraught push to tax global billionaires
The declaration did call for a possible tax on global billionaires, which Lula supports. Such a tax would affect about 3,000 people around the world, including about 100 in Latin América.
The clause was included despite opposition from Argentina. So was another promoting gender equality, said Brazilian and other officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.
Argentina signed the G20 declaration, bit also had issues with references to the UN’s 2030 sustainable development agenda. Its right-wing president, Javier Milei, has referred to the agenda as “a supranational program of a socialist nature.” It also objected to calls for regulating hate speech on social media, which Milei says infringes on national sovereignty, and to the idea that governments should do more to fight hunger.
Milei has often adopted a Trump-like role as a spoiler in multilateral talks hosted by his outspoken critic, Lula.
Concrete steps for fighting global hunger
Much of the declaration focuses on eradicating hunger — a priority for Lula.
Brazil’s government stressed that Lula’s launch of the global alliance against hunger and poverty on Monday was as important as the final G20 declaration. As of Monday, 82 nations had signed onto the plan, Brazil’s government said. It is also backed by organizations including the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
A demonstration Sunday on Rio’s Copacabana beach featured 733 empty plates spread across the sand to represent the 733 million people who went hungry in 2023, according to United Nations data.
Viviana Santiago, a director at the anti-poverty nonprofit Oxfam, praised Brazil for using its G20 presidency “to respond to people’s demands worldwide to tackle extreme inequality, hunger and climate breakdown, and particularly for rallying action on taxing the super-rich.”
“Brazil has lit a path toward a more just and resilient world, challenging others to meet them at this critical juncture,” she said in a statement.
Long-awaited reform of the United Nations
Leaders pledged to work for “transformative reform” of the UN Security Council so that it aligns “with the realities and demands of the 21st century, makes it more representative, inclusive, efficient, effective, democratic and accountable.”
Lula has been calling for reform of Security Council since his first two terms in power, from 2003 to 2010, without gaining much traction. Charged with maintaining international peace and security, its original 1945 structure has not changed. Five dominant powers at the end of World War II have veto power — the US, Russia, China, Britain and France — while 10 countries from different regions serve rotating two-year terms.
Virtually all countries agree that nearly eight decades after the United Nations was established, the Security Council should be expanded to reflect the 21st century world and include more voices. The central quandary and biggest disagreement remains how to do that. The G20 declaration doesn’t answer that question.
“We call for an enlarged Security Council composition that improves the representation of the underrepresented and unrepresented regions and groups, such as Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean,” the declaration said.
The United States announced shortly before a UN summit in September that it supports two new permanent seats for African countries, without veto power, and a first-ever non-permanent seat for a small island developing nation. But the Group of Four – Brazil, Germany, India and Japan – support each other’s bids for permanent seats. And the larger
Uniting for Consensus group of a dozen countries including Pakistan, Italy, Turkiye and Mexico wants additional non-permanent seats with longer terms.
Spain royals to visit flood epicenter after chaotic trip: media
CHIVA, Spain: Spain’s royals will make a highly anticipated return to the epicenter of catastrophic floods on Tuesday after a chaotic trip where survivors hurled mud and insults at them, local media said.
The European country is reeling from the October 29 disaster that has killed 227 people and sparked widespread fury at the governing class for their perceived mishandling of the crisis.
That outrage boiled over in the ground-zero town of Paiporta in the eastern Valencia region when King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia visited on November 3, in extraordinary scenes that stunned the world.
Furious residents chanting “murderers” pelted them with mud and projectiles as they struggled to wade through the crowds, while Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez was hastily evacuated.
The monarchs have since pledged to return to the Valencia region after another trip to the devastated town of Chiva was canceled that day.
The royal palace told AFP it would give details later Tuesday for the visit.
Felipe and Letizia are returning to keep their promise and console survivors in Chiva where the floods ripped away lives and homes, said Vicente Garrido, professor of constitutional law at the University of Valencia.
Residents will be more welcoming on this occasion because “minds are calmer” despite “the enormous pain,” and royal visits are “an honor” for any town, he told AFP.
Public anger
Whereas Sanchez and the Valencia region’s leader Carlos Mazon left early last time, the mud-spattered royal couple braved the popular anger to speak with victims.
That gesture was “viewed very positively by everyone” and will afford them “a reception befitting who they are” this week, said Garrido.
Their willingness to travel and risk personal harm earlier this month “strengthens the image” of the monarchy, Garrido said.
Popular ire has instead targeted elected politicians, particularly Mazon because the regions manage the response to natural disasters in Spain’s decentralized state.
Local authorities in many cases warned residents of the impending catastrophe too late and stricken towns depended on volunteers for essential supplies for days in the absence of the state.
The conservative Mazon admitted “mistakes” and apologized in the regional parliament on Friday but refused to resign and vowed to lead Valencia’s gigantic reconstruction effort.
Sanchez is due to appear in parliament this month to explain the left-wing central government’s handling of the floods.
UK and India to resume stalled free trade talks
- The two countries have spent nearly three years negotiating what would be a milestone for Britain as it continues to seek alternative markets
London: Britain and India will resume stalled talks to agree a free-trade deal, the two countries said after their leaders met at the G20 summit in Brazil.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who took power in London in July, hailed his meeting with Indian counterpart Narendra Modi as “very productive” and vowed that a trade pact with Delhi would boost UK growth.
“A new trade deal will support jobs and prosperity in the UK — and represent a step forward in our mission to deliver growth and opportunity across the country,” he posted on X late Monday.
Hours earlier, Starmer’s office confirmed the two countries would relaunch the talks “in the new year” as Britain sought “a new strategic partnership with India.”
That will include “deepening cooperation in areas like security, education, technology, and climate change,” Downing Street said in a statement summarising the meeting of the two leaders.
India’s foreign ministry said both leaders had “underlined the importance of resuming the Free Trade Agreement negotiations at an early date.”
It added they had “expressed confidence in the ability of the negotiating teams, to address the remaining issues to mutual satisfaction, leading to a balanced, mutually beneficial and forward looking Free Trade Agreement.”
The two countries have spent nearly three years negotiating what would be a milestone for Britain as it continues to seek alternative markets after its departure from the European Union.
UK and India to resume stalled free trade talks
The previous Conservative government, ousted by Starmer’s Labour party in July, had hit several roadblocks in its talks with Delhi over the trade pact.
In exchange for lowering tariffs on British imports such as whisky, India has pushed for more UK work and study visas for its citizens.
But Starmer’s Downing Street predecessor, Rishi Sunak, took an increasingly tough stance on immigration during his 20-month tenure as he faced a backlash over record migration levels in the wake of the Covid pandemic.
His government unveiled a raft of measures in late 2023 aimed at curbing the numbers.
Starmer has prioritized kickstarting anaemic UK economic growth but his administration is also under pressure on the contentious issue.
Britain has secured a number of post-Brexit trade deals, including with Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, and is set to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) next month.
But a much sought-after trade deal with the United States remains elusive, and striking a deal Canada also faltered earlier this year.
Germany sees damaging of Baltic Sea cables as act of sabotage, minister says
The damaging of two undersea fiber-optic communications cables in the Baltic Sea must be seen as an act of sabotage, although it is still unclear who is responsible, German Defense minister Boris Pistorius said on Tuesday.
“No one believes that these cables were cut accidentally. I also don’t want to believe in versions that these were anchors that accidentally caused damage over these cables,” Pistorius said before a meeting with EU defense ministers in Brussels.
“Therefore we have to state, without knowing specifically who it came from, that it is a ‘hybrid’ action. And we also have to assume, without knowing it yet, that it is sabotage.”
