LONDON: Plunging profits and mounting competitive pressure have turned up the heat on Gulf airlines, with Emirates President Tim Clark saying recently the Dubai flag carrier was open to cooperation with Abu Dhabi’s Etihad.
But what about a full-scale merger to cut costs and turn their fortunes around?
In an interview with Arab News, veteran analyst Tim Coombs, managing director of UK-based independent consultancy Aviation Economics, said politics would get in the way, even though on many levels “it makes commercial sense.”
“As long as any potential future losses don’t become too great, it’s hard to see what is going to drive consolidation,” said Coombs.
He added that Emirates is Dubai’s major brand, and the model was all about having Emirates as the “lightning rod” for other tourism, from hotels to shopping malls.
“All that infrastructure has been built around Emirates,” he said.
Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar have built what analysts describe as “superconnector” hubs and tempted passengers with attractive fares, luxury travel and stopovers at destinations that have been built up as tourist venues. But now there is a chill wind as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways grapple with overcapacity, security concerns, and the fallout from low oil prices, which have hit regional business and dented the bottom line.
Emirates, the oldest and largest of the Gulf airlines, posted its first full-year profit decline for five years in May, as earnings crashed more than 80 percent. Etihad’s losses in 2016 hit $1.9 billion, which included about $800 million of impairment charges related to its equity stakes in other struggling carriers, some of which are worthless.
Emirates President Tim Clark told Reuters on Oct. 11 that his airline was open to cooperation with Etihad in areas including procurement — but any merger would be up to the owners.
Coombs said: “Airlines have been here before, such as buying fuel jointly together, although such things are not enough to turn round a loss-making airline. To make aircraft procurement work you need to be ordering the same aircraft, and they aren’t.”
Emirates declined to comment when contacted by Arab News; Etihad did not respond to inquiries.
Gulf airlines are having to make difficult commercial decisions after years of growth, and Coombs said staff cuts were already underway. One problem was that the three airlines have got large order books and were continuing to receive new aircraft — but it is hard to cut routes when new aircraft are being delivered, said Coombs.
“If the situation remains the same, they may be going back to the manufacturers and looking to defer future orders,” he added.
Observers said another issue was the new airport in Istanbul that opens next year, and becomes fully functional as a hub in 2019.
“The Turkish Airlines model is to become another ‘superconnector’,” said Coombs.
“Turkey will be lobbying for exactly the same connecting traffic as the Gulf carriers are doing, effectively putting a fourth player into the market, adding to the squeeze.”
Chris Tarry, an airlines analyst at UK consultancy CTAIRA, told Arab News: “It’s not called the Istanbul Grand Airport for nothing. So yes, there will be more competition.
Istanbul is already one of the great circling routes for a lot of the connecting traffic.
“They have a wide catchment area in Europe and I expect Turkish Airlines will put in orders for wide-bodied aircraft as there are space constraints at Ataturk, and that will enable them to broaden their network.”
Tarry was not certain about a merger between Etihad and Emirates. “That is up to the ruling families in the final analysis. Would it mean one of the brands being dropped? These are difficult issues.”
Qatar Airways is profitable enough but under the cosh after a dispute with other Gulf Cooperation Council members led to the airline being shut out of destinations in Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE by an embargo imposed in June. That was the equivalent of 20 percent of Qatar Airways’ seating capacity, said experts.
Profits for all the airlines in the Middle East are forecast to more than halve from $1.1 billion in 2016 to $400 million this year, according to Iata, the global airline trade association, quoted in The Financial Times.
All three Gulf carriers have been forced to discount fares in an effort to retain market share.
Tarry has no doubt the hubs will survive. “Even when it comes to stopovers, the airlines will do what they are doing already and cut fares to encourage passengers to break their flights.”
That means a flight with a stopover in the Gulf will often be cheaper than going point-to-point — for example traveling straight from Europe to the Far East.
Tarry believes there is plenty of headroom for the Gulf states to expand their own offerings for tourists to travel point-to-point to the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the carriers are adjusting their business models to cope with a much tougher trading environment. Emirates has agreed a tie-up with low-cost sister airline Flydubai, in a deal in which the pair will align their systems at Dubai International Airport.
And airport expansion plans are afoot at Dubai World Central and Abu Dhabi’s Midfield Terminal, as the emirates look to extract efficiencies to sustain growth — allowing them to navigate their way through the current turbulent conditions.
Emirates-Etihad merger makes sense but will never fly – analysts
Emirates-Etihad merger makes sense but will never fly – analysts
Saudi Arabia grants operator license for 1st international marina to Jeddah yacht club
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia has granted an operator license for its first international harbour to Jeddah Yacht Club and Marina, boosting tourism and strengthening its position as a leading regional and global maritime hub.
On Nov. 26, the Saudi Red Sea Authority announced that it had submitted the license to the organization, which is owned by Sela, a company under the Public Investment Fund.
Mohammed Bukhari, vice president of the coastal tourism operations at SRSA, presented the license to Amer Daggag, head of destinations at Sela, at the headquarters of the Jeddah-based club.
In line with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, the authority began working in 2021 to develop and regulate the coastal tourism sector.
Its efforts include issuing licenses and permits, creating policies and strategies, and assessing infrastructure needs, as well as preserving the marine environment, attracting investments, and promoting navigational and marine tourism activities.
In a statement, SRSA said the move is part of its efforts to develop a thriving coastal tourism sector by issuing licenses and permits and establishing guidelines, rules, and standards for marinas’ development, management, and operation.
The release added that the initiative aims to encourage participation in these activities, attract and support investors, and promote coastal tourism projects along the Red Sea.
In May, SRSA granted licenses for three tourist marinas: the Al-Ahlam Marina in Jeddah, the Al-Ahlam Marina in Jazan, and the Red Sea Marina in Jeddah.
The authority emphasized that regulating marina operations would enhance the quality of services for tourists and visitors while protecting and sustaining the marine environment, emphasizing that these operators must adhere to international standards to obtain their licenses.
SRSA also issued its first maritime tourism agent license to Cruise Saudi, a company owned by PIF, as part of its broader role in enabling tourism.
The licensed agent was stated to provide services to yachts and cruise ships, ensuring the sustainable development of marine tourism and facilitating vessel movements within the Kingdom’s waters in accordance with the highest environmental standards and practices.
Last year, the Saudi Sailing Federation and Sela signed a memorandum of understanding at JYC to enhance cooperation between the two parties. Under the agreement, Sela committed to providing consultancy services and logistical support for SSF events and activities held at the Jeddah Yacht Club and Marina.
Sela also agreed to collaborate with SSF to establish a strategic partnership to manage races and events at JYC. The agreement allows SSF to benefit from the JYC training academy, offering educational programs for those seeking to develop their sailing skills.
In December 2023, JYC hosted the first America’s Cup race on the Red Sea, which was attended by Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki Al-Faisal, minister of sport, along with dignitaries from across the Kingdom, the world’s top professional sailors, and global enthusiasts.
Saudi Arabia pledges $932m boost to 17 tourism projects in Al-Ahsa
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has committed over SR3.5 billion ($932 million) to develop 17 tourism projects in Al-Ahsa, positioning the region as a key destination in the Kingdom’s growing travel sector, according to a senior official.
During a meeting with investors and entrepreneurs as part of his broader tour across Saudi regions, Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb outlined plans to enhance the governorate’s tourism infrastructure.
The projects will add more than 1,800 hotel rooms, leveraging Al-Ahsa’s natural and cultural assets to attract domestic and international visitors, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
The initiative aligns with the Kingdom’s National Tourism Strategy, which aims to attract 150 million visitors annually by 2030 and increase the tourism sector’s contribution to Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product from 6 percent to 10 percent.
Al-Khateeb highlighted investment opportunities in the sector, reaffirming the ministry’s commitment to providing comprehensive services and facilities to encourage further private sector involvement.
As part of the tour, the minister visited the SR200 million Radisson Blu Hotel in Al-Ahsa. Spanning over 10,000 sq. meters and featuring more than 180 rooms, the hotel — supported by the Tourism Development Fund — combines international luxury with local authenticity, serving as a model for future developments in the region.
Other regions across the Kingdom are also experiencing significant growth in the tourism sector.
Earlier this month, the Ministry of Tourism announced that Saudi Arabia’s Hail region welcomed over 1.1 million tourists in the first half of 2024, including 170,000 international visitors, reflecting the Kingdom’s growing appeal as a travel hub.
The ministry also reported that over 907,000 visitors were domestic travelers, showcasing the region’s popularity among residents. Licensed hospitality facilities in Hail now offer around 2,600 rooms, meeting increasing demand.
The surge aligns with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which focuses on enhancing tourism infrastructure and attracting global travelers.
The Kingdom plans to develop Hail as the fifth destination under the Saudi Tourism Investment Co., known as ASFAR, a Public Investment Fund-owned entity.
According to the latest UN Tourism report, Saudi Arabia climbed 15 places to rank 12th globally in tourist spending for 2023 — the largest jump among the top 50 countries.
This follows a September report from the UN Tourism, which highlighted the Kingdom’s leadership among G20 nations with a 73 percent increase in international visitor growth and a 207 percent rise in international tourism receipts from January to July, compared to the same period in 2019.
Jordan forecasts $14.3bn in public revenues in 2025 budget
RIYADH: Jordan’s public revenues for 2025 are projected at 10.2 billion dinars ($14.3 billion), slightly down from the 10.3 billion dinars forecast for 2024, according to the nation’s General Budget Department.
The 2025 draft budget estimated 9.5 billion dinars in local revenues and 734.3 million dinars from foreign grants, closely aligning with the figures for 2024.
The draft budget provided a detailed financial framework for the country, highlighting major national development projects, governorate-specific allocations, and a roadmap for spending during 2025–2027.
The document underscored the government’s commitment to balancing fiscal discipline with strategic investments aligned with Jordan’s Economic Modernization Vision.
The vision is centered on the slogan “A Better Future” and focuses on two main pillars: driving accelerated economic growth and enhancing the quality of life for all citizens.
Sustainability is also a key foundation of this vision.
Economic and fiscal overview
Total public expenditures for 2025 are estimated at 12.5 billion dinars, consisting of:
- 11.04 billion dinars in current expenditures allocated for operational and administrative functions, including salaries, pensions, and subsidies.
- 1.47 billion dinars in capital expenditures, reflecting a 16.5 percent increase compared to 2024. This allocation prioritizes infrastructure development, health care enhancements, and educational improvements.
The budget targets a reduction in the primary deficit to 2 percent of gross domestic product, compared to 2.9 percent in 2024.
Key national investments
The draft budget emphasized transformative projects to address critical national needs, including the National Water Carrier Initiative, which addresses Jordan’s chronic water scarcity and ensures long-term water security.
There is also a focus on a railway project that connects Aqaba Port to Al-Shidiya and Ghor Al-Safi. This initiative aims to boost logistical efficiency and economic integration.
Other key projects include investments in renewable energy and infrastructure upgrades and enhancements in public transportation networks to ease connectivity and reduce environmental impact.
Economic growth targets
The budget framework projects there will be 2.5 percent real GDP growth, driven by ongoing structural reforms.
It also forecases 4.9 percent nominal growth, supported by moderate inflation rates that contribute to financial and monetary stability.
Governorate budgets and modernization efforts
The budget allocates significant funds to governorates to ensure equitable development and address local priorities. Notable regional allocations include money for the construction and maintenance of hospitals, schools, and transportation infrastructure.
There is also funding for agricultural development, water management, and job creation initiatives tailored to local needs.
Specific projects detailed in the governorate budgets include road maintenance and expansions in Irbid, Al-Mafraq, and other regions, investments in health care facilities, including expansions of hospitals and primary care centers, and the development of educational institutions, such as building new schools and upgrading existing facilities.
In line with the “Public Sector Modernization The Roadmap,” the draft budget included funding for implementing updated job guidelines, creating new vacancies, and modernizing public administration to enhance service delivery.
This framework is a comprehensive roadmap to improve public administration and enhance the institutional approach to responding efficiently to domestic and global developments.
Oil Updates – crude steadies amid possible Middle East ceasefire
- Israel, Lebanon eye ceasefire in Israel-Hezbollah conflict
- MidEast ceasefire cuts likelihood of US sanctions on Iran oil
- Kyiv faces sustained Russian drone attacks
SINGAPORE: Oil prices edged higher in early trade on Tuesday after falling in the previous session as investors took stock of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, weighing on oil’s risk premium.
Brent crude futures rose 15 cents, or 0.21 percent, to $73.16 a barrel as at 10:05 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $69.09 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.22 percent.
Both benchmarks settled down $2 a barrel on Monday following reports that Lebanon and Israel had agreed to the terms of a deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, which triggered a crude oil selloff.
Market reaction to the ceasefire news was “over the top,” said senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva at Phillip Nova.
While the news calmed fear of disruption to Middle Eastern supply, the Israel-Hamas conflict “never actually disrupted supplies significantly to induce war premiums” this year, Sachdeva said.
“The vulnerability of oil prices to geopolitical headlines lacks foundational backup and, coupled with the inability to maintain recent gains, reflects weakening global demand for oil and suggests a volatile market ahead.”
Iran, which supports Hezbollah, is an OPEC member with production of around 3.2 million barrels per day, or 3 percent of global output.
A ceasefire in Lebanon would reduce the likelihood that the incoming US administration will impose stringent sanctions on Iranian crude oil, said ANZ analysts.
If President-elect Donald Trump’s administration returned to a maximum-pressure campaign on Tehran, Iranian exports could shrink by 1 million bpd, analysts have said, tightening global crude flows.
In Europe, Ukraine’s capital Kyiv was under a sustained Russian drone attack on Tuesday, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.
Hostilities between major oil producer Russia and Ukraine intensified this month after US President Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russia in a significant reversal of Washington’s policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Elsewhere, OPEC+ may consider leaving its current oil output cuts in place from Jan. 1 at its next meeting on Sunday, Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov told Reuters, as the producer group had already postponed hikes amid demand worries.
On Monday, Trump said he would sign an executive order imposing a 25 percent tariff on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada. It was unclear whether this would include crude oil.
The vast majority of Canada’s 4 million bpd of crude exports go to the US Analysts have said it is unlikely Trump would impose tariffs on Canadian oil, which cannot be easily replaced since it differs from grades that the US produces.
“Contrary to today’s sell-off in risk assets, I think the tariff announcements are actually risk-positive because they are lower than consensus expectations,” said market analyst Tony Sycamore at IG.
Trump’s proposed additional 10 percent tariffs on Chinese imports are “well below” the 60 percent level he threatened pre-election, Sycamore said.
For the time being, markets are eyeing Trump’s plan to increase US oil production, which has been near record levels throughout 2022 to 2024 and absorbed supply disruption from geopolitical crises and sanctions, Phillip Nova’s Sachdeva said.
Saudi Arabia’s NEOM giga-project a ‘generational investment,’ minister says
- Foreign investors starting to come to NEOM, minister says
- On recent departure of NEOM’s CEO, minister says there is a time to pass baton
- Risk-return ‘very fair’ for outside investors, Al-Falih says
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s NEOM gigaproject, a futuristic region being built in the desert, is a “generational investment” with a long timeline, the country’s investment minister told Reuters on Monday, adding that foreign investment will pick up pace.
“NEOM was not meant to be a two-year investable opportunity. If anybody expected NEOM to be foreign investment in two, three or five years, then they have gotten (it) wrong — it’s a generational investment,” Minister Khalid Al-Falih said on the sidelines of the World Investment Conference in Riyadh.
“The flywheel is starting and it will gain speed as we go forward, as some of the foundational assets come to the market,” he said.
The world’s top oil exporter has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into development projects through the Kingdom’s $925 billion sovereign fund, the Public Investment Fund, as it undergoes an economic agenda dubbed Vision 2030 to cut dependence on fossil fuels.
NEOM, a Red Sea urban and industrial development nearly the size of Belgium that is meant to eventually house 9 million people, is central to Vision 2030.
NEOM announced this month its long-time chief executive, Nadhmi Al-Nasr, had stepped down, without giving further details.
Asked what effect the departure would have on investors, the minister said the executive had done “a respectable job” but that “there is a time for everybody to pass on the baton.”
Asked if PIF will continue to do much of the spending on NEOM until more foreign funds come in, Al-Falih said it was not binary.
“I think foreign investors are starting to come to NEOM, they’re starting to channel capital. Some of the projects that the PIF will be doing will be financed through global capital pools, through some alternative and private capital. That’s taking place as we speak,” he said.
“So I urge you not to look at NEOM as being 100 percent PIF and then suddenly there will be a cliff and it will go private.”
Saudi Arabia, which is racing to attract $100 billion in annual foreign direct investment by the turn of the decade — reaching about a quarter of that in 2023 — has recently seen more co-investment deals between state entities and foreign investors.
“It’s always been the intent,” Al-Falih said of foreign inflows alongside state funds.
He noted that foreign investors were at times “still looking, still examining, still sometimes questioning,” but that now there was confidence in the profitability of investment opportunities and that “the risk-return trade-offs are very, very fair and positive to them.”
