MANILA: A regional security expert on Wednesday said the liberation of Marawi City from the Daesh-backed Maute group has not ended the threat of violent extremism in the Philippines.
Sidney Jones, director of the Indonesia-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC), said this as she warned of grave consequences if the Philippine government fails to efficiently rebuild Marawi which suffered massive devastation from the five months of battle between government troops and the Maute group.
Jones also raised the possibility that children of militants killed in the Marawi siege could be the next generation of fighters. She said that there is “ongoing radicalization taking place on a very quiet, below-the-radar-screen level” among youth in Mindanao, particularly those directly affected by the Marawi crisis.
“One of the things particularly to think about are (the) children and younger siblings of people who were killed,” Jones said in a forum with foreign correspondents.
She pointed out that the government placed the number of slain terrorists at 800 to 900. The question, however, is “how do you know that all (these) people killed are really terrorists?” She that it was never clear how the determination was made to say that they are indeed militants.
The fact that the number of terrorist casualties kept going up, whereas the number of civilians stayed at 47 from the start of the siege in May all the way till the end, just “doesn’t make sense,” Jones stressed. That leaves the children and young siblings of these slain militants very vulnerable to recruitment and involvement in radical organizations, she added.
Jones thus said it is important to identify the families and children of the so-called 800 terrorists killed in Marawi, where are they, and what programs can be put in place for them.
According to the IPAC director, the problem with the children and siblings of the slain militants “could be exacerbated if there’s a failure to rebuild Marawi very quickly or efficiently.”
Jones notes that many displaced residents are not angry at the destruction of their homes, but are also unhappy at the conditions in evacuation centers — a situation that can be exploited by extremists.
“And as I say, watch the reconstruction of Marawi and watch what happens … in terms of resentment in evacuation centers if people don’t go home quickly,” she continued.
“Reconstruction of Marawi, how it’s conducted will be key,” Jones emphasized.
While saying that she doesn’t think there’s a likelihood that militants could take over another city, Jones said that revenge bombings in Manila, Zamboanga, or Cotabato can come next after the government declared victory against Daesh-backed militants in Marawi.
“We’re more likely to see bombing attacks in urban areas to say we’re (militants) still here,” Jones said.
She added there’s also a possibility of attacks on Philippine embassies elsewhere, and the rise of a new Maranao movement that will take a more Islamist stance, as well as eruption of clan wars against the Mautes. Basilan could also revert to kidnappings under Furuji Indama.
Another thing to pay attention to, she said, was the presence of Indonesians and Malaysians in Marawi
“It is important to note how far back the links between Mindanao-based Indonesian extremists actually go. There’s a long, complex history with lots of different groups … just because Marawi is liberated doesn’t mean an end to that,” Jones said.
“The ideology that supports violent extremism isn’t going away any time soon,” she further said.
Asked about the announcement made by Philippine National Police (PNP) chief Gen. Ronald Dela Rosa that Malaysian jihadist Muhammad Amin Baco has replaced Isnilon Hapilon as the new Daesh emir in Southeast Asia, Jones said: “It looks like he jumped to (that) conclusion.”
Jones stressed “there’s no way” that Baco is Daesh’s new emir in Southeast Asia.
She said there may have been information from captured Indonesian Muhammad Ilham Syahputra that Baco was there when Hapilon and the Maute brothers were killed, and he (Baco) may have temporarily assumed leadership of the stragglers in Marawi. “But you can’t extrapolate from that to saying that somebody is emir,” Jones emphasized.
“I’m not sure what the basis was on which the police chief made that statement,” Jones said, adding: “I don’t think we have any evidence to support that.”
Liberation of Marawi City from Maute group has not ended threat of violent extremism in the Philippines.
Liberation of Marawi City from Maute group has not ended threat of violent extremism in the Philippines.
Senegal PM seeks to repeal contested amnesty law
- Sonko’s government pledged earlier this month to investigate dozens of deaths resulting from the political violence between 2021 and 2024
DAKAR: Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko said Friday that his government would submit legislation to repeal a law by former president Macky Sall granting amnesty for deadly political violence.
The controversial amnesty was granted just before March 2024 elections as Sall sought to calm protests sparked by his last-minute postponement of the vote in the traditionally stable West African country.
Critics say the move was to shield perpetrators of serious crimes, including homicides, committed during three years of political tensions between February 2021 and February 2024.
But it also allowed Sonko, a popular opposition figure, to stand in the elections after court convictions had made him ineligible, as well as Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who eventually won the presidency.
Sonko’s government pledged earlier this month to investigate dozens of deaths resulting from the political violence between 2021 and 2024.
“In addition to putting compensation for victims into the budget, a draft law will be submitted to your august Assembly to repeal the March 6, 2024 amnesty so that light may be shed and responsibilities determined on whatever side they may lie,” Sonko said in a highly awaited policy speech to lawmakers.
“It’s not a witch hunt and even less vengeance ... It’s justice, the foundation without which social peace cannot be built,” Sonko said.
Sonko’s speech also laid out plans for the next five years to pull Senegal out of three years of economic and political turmoil that have sent unemployment soaring.
He and Faye, who won the presidency and in November secured a landslide victory in parliament, now have a clear path for implementing an ambitious, leftist reform agenda.
“We must carry out a deep and unprecedented break never seen in the history of our country since independence” from France, Sonko told lawmakers.
He said Senegal remained “locked into the colonial economic model” and vowed an overhaul of public action and tax reforms to foster “home-grown growth.”
ECOWAS defends Nigeria against Niger’s claims of ‘destabilization’ plot
- Niger’s military leaders broke away from the ECOWAS amid rising anti-France sentiments
LAGOS: West Africa’s regional bloc ECOWAS has come to Nigeria’s defense after claims by Niger that it was plotting to destabilize its neighbor.
Niger’s military leader General Abdourahamane Tchiani accused Nigeria of providing homes for two French nationals it expelled, allegedly for anti-government activities, during a televised Christmas Day broadcast on Wednesday.
Tchiani also lashed out against ECOWAS and claimed that France had established a base in Nigeria where it was arming terror groups in the Lake Chad region to foment unrest in his country.
“Nigerian authorities are not unaware of this underhanded move,” Tchiani said. “It is near a forest close to Sokoto where they wanted to establish a terrorist stronghold known as Lakurawa.”
“The French and ISWAP made this deal on March 4, 2024,” he added, referring to the Daesh West Africa Province militant group.
Earlier in December, Niger’s foreign minister summoned the charge d’affaires at the Nigerian Embassy, accusing its neighbors of “serving as a rear base” to “destabilize” the country.
ECOWAS and Nigeria rejected the accusations. “For years, Nigeria has supported peace and security of several countries not only in the West African subregion but also on the African continent,” the regional bloc said in a statement released.
“ECOWAS therefore refutes any suggestion that such a generous and magnanimous country would become a state-sponsor of terrorism.”
Nigeria’s Information Minister Mohammed Idris said in a separate statement Thursday that his country had no alliance with “France or any other country” to destabilize Niger, with whom it has had a choppy relationship since Tchiani seized power in a July 2023 coup.
Niger’s military leaders broke away from the ECOWAS amid rising anti-France sentiments.
Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is currently head of the ECOWAS bloc, had briefly considered a regional military intervention to reinstate Niger’s ousted president Mohamed Bazoum.
But Idris said that Nigeria was open to dialogue with Niger despite its political situation.
“Nigeria remains committed to fostering regional stability and will continue to lead efforts to address terrorism and other transnational challenges,” he said.
Anger mounts in Kenya over abductions
- Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who was ousted after clashing with Ruto over the protests, also alleged on Friday that a secret unit was behind the disappearances
NAIROBI: Kenyan rights groups, lawyers and politicians voiced grave concern over a fresh spate of abductions targeting government critics on Friday.
A small protest was organized in northeastern Embu town, where a 24-year-old man, Billy Mwangi, disappeared last weekend.
Security forces in the East African nation have been accused of carrying out dozens of illegal detentions since youth-led anti-government demonstrations in June and July. The latest disappearances have been primarily young men who have criticized President William Ruto online.
Police have denied involvement but activists have questioned why they appear not to be investigating the disappearances.
The Law Society of Kenya said recent denials by the inspector-general of police were “insufficient,” calling for him to take clear action against the kidnappers or resign. “If indeed the police are not complicit,” LSK said, they must immediately “investigate and prosecute those responsible.”
Human Rights Watch said earlier this year that its research pointed toward a unit drawn from multiple security agencies.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who was ousted after clashing with Ruto over the protests, also alleged on Friday that a secret unit was behind the disappearances.
“Abducting these children and killing them is not a solution ... This is the first administration in the history of this country to target children for repression,” Gachagua claimed at a press conference.
The Kenya National Commission on Human Rights said Thursday there had been 82 abduction cases carried out “clandestinely, with unidentified armed persons” since June, with 29 still missing. It listed seven people who had been abducted since Dec. 17.
Two of them — Mwangi and Peter Muteti — were taken shortly after sharing AI-generated images of Ruto dead.
The Kenyan Judiciary said this week that “abductions have no place in law and indeed are a direct threat to the rights of citizens.”
In a post on X on Thursday, it urged “security agencies and all connected entities to adhere to the law to safeguard fundamental rights and freedoms.”
The anti-government demonstrations earlier this year were sparked by proposed tax hikes, triggering the worst crisis since Ruto took power in 2022.
While large-scale rallies have mostly stopped, anger against the government has simmered, fueled by a cost of living crisis and continued allegations of brutality by the security forces.
Several wounded North Korean soldiers died after being captured by Ukraine: Zelensky
- Ukrainian president says some captured North Korean soldiers were very seriously wounded and could not be saved
- Ukraine says North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to support Russia’s army
KYIV: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that “several” wounded North Korean soldiers died after being captured by Ukrainian forces, as he accused Russia of throwing them into battle with “minimal protection.”
Ukraine and its western allies say North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to support Russia’s army, in what is seen as a major escalation in the nearly three-year war following Moscow’s 2022 invasion.
“Today there were reports about several soldiers from North Korea. Our soldiers managed to take them prisoner. But they were very seriously wounded and could not be resuscitated,” Zelensky said in an evening address posted on social media.
South Korea’s spy agency said earlier on Friday that a North Korean soldier who was captured while fighting in Russia’s war against Ukraine had died of his wounds.
Zelensky did not specify how many North Koreans had died after being captured by Ukrainian troops.
Zelensky had earlier said that nearly 3,000 North Korean soldiers had been “killed or wounded” so far as they joined Russia’s forces in combat in its western Kursk border region, where Ukraine mounted a shock incursion in August.
South Korea’s intelligence service had previously put the number of killed or wounded North Koreans at 1,000, saying the high casualty rate could be down to an unfamiliar battlefield environment and their lack of capability to counter drone attacks.
The White House on Friday confirmed the South Korean estimates, saying that Pyongyang’s troops were being sent to their deaths in futile attacks by generals who see them as “expendable.”
“We also have reports of North Korean soldiers taking their own lives rather than surrendering to Ukrainian forces, likely out of fear of reprisal against their families in North Korea in the event that they’re captured,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters.
North Korea and Russia have strengthened their military ties since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
A landmark defense pact between Pyongyang and Moscow signed in June came into force this month, with Russian President Vladimir Putin hailing it as a “breakthrough document.”
North Korean state media said Friday that Putin sent a New Year’s message to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, saying: “The bilateral ties between our two countries have been elevated after our talks in June in Pyongyang.”
Seoul’s military believes that North Korea was seeking to modernize its conventional warfare capabilities through combat experience gained in the Russia-Ukraine war.
NATO chief Mark Rutte had also said that Moscow was providing support to Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programs in exchange for the troops.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said Monday that Pyongyang is reportedly “preparing for the rotation or additional deployment of soldiers” and supplying “240mm rocket launchers and 170mm self-propelled artillery” to the Russian army.
Pyongyang’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine had prompted warnings from Seoul.
South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol, currently suspended, said in November that Seoul was “not ruling out the possibility of providing weapons” to Kyiv, which would mark a major shift to a long-standing policy barring the sale of weapons to countries in active conflict.
Azerbaijani and US officials suggest plane that crashed may have been hit by weapons fire
- Azerbaijani lawmaker and aviation experts blame Azerbaijan Airlines crash on Russian air defenses
- Crash killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured
BAKU: Russian air defense systems may have brought down an Azerbaijani airliner this week, a US official said Friday after an Azerbaijani minister also suggested the plane was hit by a weapon, citing expert analysis and survivor accounts.
Friday’s assessments by Rashan Nabiyev and White House national security spokesman John Kirby echoed those made by outside aviation experts who blamed the crash on Russian air defense systems responding to a Ukrainian attack. These statements raised pressure on Russia, where officials said a drone attack was underway in the region where the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was heading for a landing. They did not address statements blaming air defenses.
Kirby told reporters on Friday that the US “have seen some early indications that would certainly point to the possibility that this jet was brought down by Russian air defense systems,” but refused to elaborate, citing an ongoing investigation.
Pressed on whether the US has intelligence that helped lead to that conclusion, or was simply relying on informed speculation from experts based on visual assessments of the crash, Kirby characterized the short answer as “yes” but said he’d “leave it at that,” without providing further details.
The plane was flying from Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku to Grozny, the regional capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, on Wednesday when it turned toward Kazakhstan and crashed while making an attempt to land. The crash killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured.
Nabiyev, Azerbaijan’s minister of digital development and transportation, told Azerbaijani media that “preliminary conclusions by experts point at external impact,” as does witness testimony.
“The type of weapon used in the impact will be determined during the probe,” Nabiyev said.
Passengers and crew who survived the crash told Azerbaijani media that they heard loud noises on the aircraft as it was circling over Grozny.
Flight attendant Aydan Rahimli said that after one noise, the oxygen masks automatically released. She said that she went to perform first aid on a colleague, Zulfugar Asadov, and then they heard another bang.
Asadov said that the noises sounded like something hitting the plane from outside. Shortly afterwards, he sustained a sudden injury like a “deep wound, the arm was lacerated as if someone hit me in the arm with an ax,” he added. He denied a claim from Kazakh officials that an oxygen canister exploded inside the plane.
Two other survivors recounted hearing explosions before the plane went down: Jerova Salihat told Azerbaijani television in an interview in the hospital that “something exploded” near her leg, and Vafa Shabanova said that “there were two explosions in the sky, and an hour and a half later the plane crashed to the ground.”
Dmitry Yadrov, head of Russia’s civil aviation authority Rosaviatsia, said Friday that as the plane was preparing to land in Grozny in deep fog, Ukrainian drones were targeting the city, prompting authorities to close the area to air traffic.
Yadrov said that after the captain made two unsuccessful attempts to land, he was offered other airports but decided to fly to Aktau in Kazakhstan, across the Caspian Sea.
He didn’t comment on statements from some aviation experts, who pointed out that holes seen in the plane’s tail section suggested that it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems.
Ukrainian drones have previously attacked Grozny and other areas in the Russian North Caucasus.
Azerbaijan Airlines blamed the crash on unspecified “physical and technical interference” and announced the suspension of flights to several Russian airports. It didn’t say where the interference came from or provide any further details.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on the claims that the plane was hit by Russian air defenses, saying that it will be up to investigators to determine the cause of the crash.
“The air incident is being investigated, and we don’t believe we have the right to make any assessments until the conclusions are made as a result of the investigation,” Peskov said in a conference call with reporters.
If it’s proven that the plane crashed after being hit by Russian air defenses, it would be the second deadly civil aviation accident linked to fighting in Ukraine. Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was downed with a Russian surface-to-air missile, killing all 298 people aboard, as it flew over the area in eastern Ukraine controlled by Moscow-backed separatists in 2014.
Russia has denied responsibility, but a Dutch court in 2022 convicted two Russians and a pro-Russia Ukrainian man for their role in downing the plane with an air defense system brought into Ukraine from a Russian military base.
Investigators from Azerbaijan are working in Grozny as part of the probe of Wednesday’s crash, the Azerbaijani Prosecutor General’s office said in a statement.
Following Wednesday’s suspension of flights from Baku to Grozy and Makhachkala, Azerbaijan Airlines announced Friday that it would also halt service to eight more Russian cities.
The company will continue to operate flights to six Russian cities, including Moscow and St. Petersburg. Those cities also have been repeatedly targeted by Ukrainian drone strikes in the past.
Kazakhstan’s Qazaq Air also announced Friday that it was suspending flights from Astana to the Russian city of Yekaterinburg in the Ural Mountains for a month.
FlyDubai also halted flights to Sochi and Mineralnye Vody in southern Russian for the next few days.
The day before, Israel’s El Al carrier suspended flights from Tel Aviv to Moscow citing “developments in Russia’s airspace.” The airline said it would reassess the situation next week.
