BEIRUT: With the fall of the Daesh group’s last significant stronghold in Syria, Iranian and Russian-backed Syrian troops now turn to face off with their main rival, the US-backed forces holding large oil fields and strategic territory in the country’s north and east.
The complicated map puts US and Iranian forces at close proximity, just across the Euphrates River from each other, amid multiple hotspots that could turn violent, particularly in the absence of a clear American policy.
There are already signs.
Iran threatened last week that Syrian troops will advance toward Raqqa, the former Daesh capital, which fell to the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in October, raising the potential for a clash there. The Kurdish-led SDF also controls some of Syria’s largest oil fields, in the oil-rich eastern Deir Ezzor province, an essential resource that the Syrian government also says it will take back.
The question now is whether the United States is willing to confront the troops of Syrian President Bashar Assad and Iranian-backed militiamen. The Kurds are seeking a clear American commitment to help them defend their gains. American officials have said little of their plans and objectives in Syria beyond general statements about continuing to deny Daesh safe havens and continuing to train and equip allies.
Washington seems to be hoping to negotiate a deal for Syria that would protect the Kurds’ ambitions for autonomy while limiting Iran’s ambitions for a presence in Syria. Four US officials said Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin could announce a Russian-US deal on how they hope to Syria’s war after Daesh’s defeat if they meet Friday at a conference in Vietnam. However, prospect of such a meeting uncertain, it was not clear if such a deal had been reached.
But Assad underlined that his government plans to regain all of Syria and will now fight against plans to “partition” Syria, a reference to Kurdish aspirations for a recognized autonomous zone in the north.
Government victories “have foiled all partition plans and the goals of terrorism and the countries sponsoring it,” Assad said during a meeting this week with Ali Akbar Velayati, the adviser of Iran’s supreme leader.
With its collapse in Boukamal on Thursday, the Daesh group has no major territory left in Syria or Iraq. Its militants are believed to have pulled back into the desert, east and west of the Euphrates River. The group has a small presence near the capital, Damascus. Late Thursday, the extremist group carried out a counteroffensive in Boukamal, regaining control of more than 40 percent of the border town.
The Euphrates now stands as the dividing line between Syrian government troops and the SDF in much of Deir Ezzor province.
Government forces and their allies, including Iranian troops and fighters from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, control the western bank. They hold the provincial capital and several small oil fields.
The Kurdish-led force, along with American troops advising them, is on the eastern bank. They hold two of Syria’s largest oil fields, nearly a dozen smaller ones, one of the largest gas fields and large parts of the border with Iraq. They say they are determined to keep the government from crossing the river.
The coalition had said for weeks that the SDF was pushing toward Boukamal. With Assad’s forces taking the town, the coalition said in a statement to the AP on Friday that the SDF is now moving on Baghuz, a village also on the border near Boukamal but on the eastern bank of the Euphrates.
Iran’s Velayati said the US presence aims to divide Syria. “They have not and will not succeed in Iraq and they will also not succeed in Syria,” he said during a visit to Lebanon last weekend. “We will soon see the Syrian government and popular forces in Syria east of the Euphrates and they will liberate the city of Raqqa.”
The US coalition declined to comment on Velayati’s remarks, saying “it would not be appropriate to comment on speculation or rumor by any third party.”
Washington has been wary of Iran’s increasing influence in the area and its attempts to establish a land corridor from Iran across Iraq and Syria to Lebanon.
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis acknowledged this week that allies have pressed for a clearer US policy in Syria. The priority was to get the UN-sponsored peace talks back on track, he said, offering few details.
“We’re trying to get this into the diplomatic mode so we can get things sorted out ... and make certain (that) minorities — whoever they are — are not just subject to more of what we’ve seen” under Assad, he said, apparently referring to ensuring some sort of accommodation to Kurdish ambitions.
The talks, scheduled for Nov. 28, have already been challenged by Russia, which seeks a bigger role. Moscow called for intra-Syrian talks to chart a political process and invited the dominant Kurdish party that forms the backbone of the SDF, the first such international invitation. A date for the Russia talks has not been set.
Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, predicted the Syrian government will use military pressure to reach a negotiated solution with the Kurds amid lack of evidence that the US has any “commitment to engineering political change in Syria or indeed has a Syria policy at all.” In an article last week in the Al-Hayat newspaper, Sayigh said Russia is the likely arbiter between Kurds and the government.
Ilham Ahmed, a senior politician with the political arm of the SDF, said indirect talks with the government have taken place but there are no signs of a change in their position.
“A clear position from the coalition can prevent confrontation,” she said.
Meanwhile, the Kurdish-led SDF faces the complications of trying to run Arab-dominated areas. With US-backing, the force sought to allay any Arab residents’ fears of Kurdish domination by forming joint local councils and electing Arab and Kurdish officials.
But this week, the SDF-held town of Manbij saw protests by Arab residents against compulsory military conscription imposed by the SDF. Hundreds were briefly detained, according to Mohammed Khaled, with activist-operated Aleppo 24.
Ahmed described the protests as “fabricated” by the government and Turkey, which sees Kurdish aspirations as a threat.
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Associated Press writers Josh Lederman and Matthew Lee in Washington contributed to this report.
After Daesh collapse, Syria government faces US-backed Kurds
After Daesh collapse, Syria government faces US-backed Kurds
Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon will last beyond 60 days, Netanyahu’s office says
- There was no immediate comment from Lebanon or Hezbollah
The deal, brokered by the United States and France, ended more than a year of hostilities between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah. The fighting peaked with a major Israeli offensive that displaced more than 1.2 million people in Lebanon and left Hezbollah severely weakened.
Under the agreement, which came into effect on Nov. 27, Hezbollah weapons and fighters must be removed from areas south of the Litani river and Israeli troops should withdraw as the Lebanese military deploys into the region, all within a 60-day timeframe due to conclude on Monday at 4 a.m. (0200 GMT).
Netanyahu’s office said in a statement that the Israeli military’s withdrawal process was “contingent on the Lebanese army deploying in southern Lebanon and fully and effectively enforcing the agreement, while Hezbollah withdraws beyond the Litani.”
“Since the ceasefire agreement has not yet been fully enforced by the Lebanese state, the gradual withdrawal process will continue, in full coordination with the United States,” the statement said.
There was no immediate comment from Lebanon or Hezbollah.
UN suspends all trips into Houthi-held areas of Yemen over staffers being detained
- The statement comes after the Houthis detained UN staffers
DUBAI: The United Nations on Friday suspended all travel into areas held by Yemen’s Houthi rebels after more of their staff were detained by the rebels.
The statement comes after the Houthis detained UN staffers, as well as individuals associated with the once-open US Embassy in Sanaa and aid groups.
“Yesterday, the de facto authorities in Sanaa detained additional UN personnel working in areas under their control,” the UN statement read. “To ensure the security and safety of all its staff, the United Nations has suspended all official movements into and within areas under the de facto authorities’ control.”
The Houthis did not immediately acknowledge the UN’s decision, which came as they have been trying to deescalate their attacks on shipping and Israel after a ceasefire was reached in the Israel-Hamas war.
US President Donald Trump separately has moved to reinstate a terrorism designation he made on the group late in his first term that had been revoked by President Joe Biden, potentially setting the stage for new tensions with the rebels.
The Houthis earlier this week said they would limit their attacks on ships in the Red Sea corridor and released the 25-member crew of the Galaxy Leader, a ship they seized back in November 2023.
Israel building military installations in Golan demilitarized zone
- UN: Israeli construction along Area of Separation is ‘severe violation’ of 1974 ceasefire agreement
- Israeli forces have been operating in southern Syria since fall of Assad regime in December
LONDON: The Israeli military is building installations in the demilitarized zone between the occupied Golan Heights and Syria, satellite images published by the BBC have revealed.
Israeli forces moved into the Area of Separation agreed in the 1974 ceasefire with Syria, crossing the so-called Alpha Line following the fall of the Assad regime in December.
The satellite images, taken on Tuesday, show construction work and trucks around 600 meters inside the Area of Separation, including a track linking the site to another Israeli-administered road in the area.
Footage obtained by a drone operated by a Syrian journalist on Monday also identified excavators and bulldozers at the location.
The Israeli military told the BBC that its “forces are operating in southern Syria, within the buffer zone and at strategic points, to protect the residents of northern Israel.”
The UN Disengagement Observer Force has said Israeli construction along the Area of Separation is “a severe violation” of the 1974 ceasefire agreement.
Jeremy Binnie, Middle East specialist at defense intelligence company Janes, told the BBC: “The photo shows what appear to be four prefabricated guard posts that they will presumably crane into position in the corners, so this is somewhere they are planning to maintain at least an interim presence.”
It is not the first time that the BBC has identified Israeli forces inside the Area of Separation. Soldiers were spotted near the town of Majdal Shams, around 5.5 km from the new site, while satellite pictures taken in November found a trench being dug by Israeli personnel along the Alpha Line near the town of Jubata Al-Khashab.
Hamas says to provide names of 4 Israeli hostages on Friday for next swap
- Four Israeli women hostages to be freed on Saturday as part of a second release
- Hamas has not released definitive information on how many captives are still alive or the names of those who have died
CAIRO: A senior Hamas official told AFP that his group will provide on Friday the names of four Israeli women hostages to be freed the following day as part of a second release under the ceasefire with Israel.
“Today, Hamas will provide the names of four hostages as part of the second prisoner exchange,” said Bassem Naim, a member of Hamas’s political bureau based in Doha.
“Tomorrow, Saturday, the four women hostages will be released in exchange for a group of Palestinian prisoners, as agreed upon in the ceasefire deal.”
Naim also said that once the exchange takes place, war-displaced Palestinians in southern Gaza will be able to begin returning to the north of the territory.
“An Egyptian-Qatari committee will oversee the implementation of this part of the agreement on the ground,” he said.
“The displaced will return from the south to the north via Al-Rashid Road, as Israeli forces are expected to withdraw from there in accordance with the agreement.”
The ceasefire agreement was brokered by Qatar, Egypt and the United States after months of intense negotiations.
The truce, the second in the more than 15 months of war, began on Sunday, with the first three hostages released in exchange for around 90 Palestinian prisoners.
The war between Hamas and Israel broke out after the militants’ deadly attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
During the attack, militants took 251 hostages, 91 of whom remain in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military has confirmed are deceased.
The first truce, implemented in late November 2023, lasted just one week but involved the release of 105 hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners.
The October 7 attack resulted in the deaths of 1,210 people on the Israeli side, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Since then, Israel’s retaliatory response has killed at least 47,283 people in Gaza, the majority of them civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry, figures which the UN considers are reliable.
Iraqi president calls for more global action on desertification
- Iraq is the world’s fifth most vulnerable country to climate change
DAVOS: Iraq’s President Abdul Latif Rashid has called for more action on desertification, amid global concerns of land degradation that has affected agricultural productivity, caused pollution in waterways and resulted in increased frequency of droughts.
“We attend many conferences, joined many groups for solving desertification but unfortunately the actual achievement has been very little to show for. I appeal to you, once we make decisions for decreasing desertification, let us act on it,” Rashid said on Friday.
Speaking during a World Economic Forum panel “On Firmer Ground with Land Restoration,” the Iraqi leader told participants that land restoration was not just an environmental imperative but also a moral duty.
“In Iraq, we face the consequences of environmental challenges. Nearly 40 percent of our land is affected by desertification, and our water resources essential for agriculture and livelihood are under severe strain. These problems are made worse by climate change, rising temperatures, reduced river flows from our neighboring countries,” the president, a British-educated engineer, said.
Iraq is the world’s fifth most vulnerable country to climate change, and there are grave concerns regarding water and food security, according to the UN.
The depletion of water resources and the spread of desertification are exacerbating Iraq’s problems, leading to conditions including scorching temperatures exceeding 50°C — recorded in 2023 — coupled with water scarcity, desertification and reduced rainfall, the global body said.
Government figures show that desertification has ravaged 71 percent of the nation’s arable land, with an additional 10,000 hectares becoming barren each year. This degradation has reduced the amount of cultivable land to just 1.4 million hectares and has led to a 70 percent decline in agricultural output.
“Iraq is taking bold and good steps to combat these challenges,” according to Rashid, who was the Iraqi minister of water resources from 2003-2010.
One of these steps was the implementation of a 10-year program to combat desertification that prioritizes reforestation, soil preservation and sustainable agricultural practice, Rashid said.
Iraq needs to plant 15 billion trees to combat desertification, establish forests and reduce greenhouse gases, its agriculture ministry said, considering the country’s forest area is only 8,250 sq km, or just 2 percent of its total area.
“We are establishing a buffer zone around our cities to prevent desertification by planting native and drought-resistant vegetation. These efforts are not just environmental but economic. Land restoration is integral to Iraq’s long-term economic plan … (our) development particularly in agriculture, energy and water security,” Rashid said.
“Additionally, we are promoting smart agriculture, diversifying crops, encouraging organic and regenerating farming and mandating sustainable land use practices through legislation,” the Iraqi leader added.
“Sustainable development is key to growth without compromising our environmental health.”
The Iraqi leader also emphasized the need for cross-border cooperation and collaboration with its neighbors — Turkiye and Iran — particularly on water resource matters.
“Iraq is engaged with negotiations in upstream countries including Turkiye and Iran to secure (an) equitable water-sharing agreement for the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. These negotiations are essential for the future of our region,” he said.
Turkish and Iranian dams upstream on the shared Tigris and Euphrates rivers are cutting Iraq off from much-needed water relief. It is estimated that Turkiye’s various dam and hydropower construction projects have reduced Iraq’s water supply along the two rivers by 80 percent since 1975.
Meanwhile, Iran’s development push has led to the proliferation of dams, impacting Iraq, to about 647 in 2018 from only 316 in 2012.
“Iraq is working with many international organizations to adopt climate resilient agriculture … gaining access to expertise for funding need to succeed. Ultimately, we know that lasting solutions require local actions; mobilizing communities is at the heart of our strategy,” Rashid said.
