CAIRO: There are fears that a unilateral attempt by Ethiopia to begin filling a huge new dam on the Nile will lead to the failure of technical discussions with Egypt and Sudan.
Disagreements between Ethiopia and Egypt on filling the reservoir and generating power within a few months on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which will be the largest in Africa, could not be resolved during the Tripartite National Technical Committee’s meeting, which brought together the Egyptian, Sudanese and Ethiopian ministers of water and was held in Addis Ababa on Oct. 19.
The day before the meeting, Ethiopia’s Communication and Information Technology Minister Debretsion Gebremichael announced that the construction of the dam had reached 62 percent and generating power would start this Ethiopian year and before construction is complete. The new Ethiopian year started on Sept. 11 and ends in October 2018.
“The remaining 38 percent of the construction will be done while the dam is generating hydroelectric power,” Gebremichael had told the Ethiopian News Agency.
Considering the slow pace at which the French consulting firms BRL and Artelia are preparing technical studies, it is speculated that before Ethiopia begins storing the Nile’s water in the dam, studies necessary for reaching a final agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on the rules of filling and operating the dam will be completed.
If no agreement takes place between the three countries, Ethiopia’s next step would be considered a clear violation of the tripartite Declaration of Principles on Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam signed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn in Khartoum on March 23, 2015.
“Any unilateral attempt made by Ethiopia to initiate filling the dam would lead to the failure of the current technical discussions between the three countries,” said Dr. Ayman Shabana, professor of political science at the Institute of African Studies, Cairo University.
However, Hani Raslan, an expert on the Nile basin and Sudanese affairs at Al-Ahram Center for Strategic Studies, believes the declaration of principles does not provide a legally binding framework for Ethiopia since it obliges the three countries only to “respect” the terms and not “adhere” to them. “Respect can mean a different thing for each country,” he said.
“There are also controversial terms in the declaration of principles, especially the one that says filling the GERD reservoir is linked to completing joint technical studies,” he added, explaining that Ethiopia adopted “an elusive interpretation of this term.”
“Ethiopia has named two phases of the filling process: ‘The first filling,’ which it targets during the current stage in order to start generating power, and ‘the complete filling,’ which means filling the dam reservoir to its full capacity of 74 billion cubic meters,” he continued, “And it only associates the completion of technical studies and the filling and operation rules with the complete filling and not the first filling.”
Frozen negotiations
Egypt is increasingly concerned about Ethiopia’s intention to start storing water in the GERD reservoir before completing the technical studies and reaching a final agreement on filling and operation rules.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry discussed what he called the “frozen negotiations” of the tripartite technical committee. During a meeting with his Ethiopian counterpart, Workneh Gebeyehu, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on Sept. 21, Shoukry complained of the delay in issuing technical studies on the dam’s impact on Egypt and Sudan.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi also pointed out the urgency of the speedy implementation of the declaration of principles on Ethiopia’s dam in his speech to the General Assembly on Sept. 19.
Shoukri explained that the reason behind the “slowdown” of issuing technical studies on the dam’s impact was the presence of obstacles that none of the three countries could overcome at technical or political levels. “These obstacles are a threat to the foundations of the Declaration of Principles agreement,” he said in an interview with Al-Ahram newspaper, published on Oct. 4.
He then added: “Not completing the technical studies prior to completing the dam’s construction and launching the filling process would make everyone suspect negotiations are being stalled to impede the report’s issuance.”
In spite of this, unofficial Egyptian sources acquainted with water management suggested that, to avoid the discussions failing, Egypt agree to the first filling of the GERD reservoir under three conditions:
First, the filling must be for trial purposes and not part of the actual filling process that leads to the dam’s official operation.
Second, the target water level of the first filling must be only enough for operating the two turbines installed by Ethiopia at the dam’s lower part, provided filling stops immediately after reaching this level and is resumed only after the completion of technical studies and reaching a final tripartite agreement on the rules of filling and operation. Egyptian sources estimated the amount of water needed for this purpose would be around 15 billion cubic meters.
Third, the first filling must be completed over two years, according to the same unofficial Egyptian sources, and not one year or less as planned by Ethiopia.
Dr. Shabana, of the Institute of African Studies at Cairo University, agrees with the above insight, stressing that “any step taken by Ethiopia toward initiating the filling process must be for trial purposes only and in full coordination with Egypt, as required by the declaration of principles.”
In Raslan’s opinion, Egypt currently lacks the tools for pressuring Ethiopia, which means it has to accept Ethiopia’s unilateral filling approach.
He also pointed out that the time at which the Ethiopian government announced its unilateral intention to start filling the GERD reservoir, which coincided with the tripartite technical committee’s meeting in Addis Ababa, confirms Ethiopia’s approach of refusing legal commitment as well as negotiations about its construction of GERD and development of its filling and operation rules. “Ethiopia refused to discuss the matter. Instead, it unilaterally announced it,” he said.
“In practice, Ethiopia does not respect the declaration of principles nor the technical discussions, but uses them as a façade to show goodwill and an alleged desire to cooperate with Egypt and Sudan and not harm them,” he continued. “Ethiopia’s ultimate and strategic goal is to completely and unilaterally control the Nile’s revenue, which is 48-50 billion cubic meters of water annually and accounts for most of Egypt’s annual allocation of the Nile’s water.”
Arab News sought a comment on this information from the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, but the ministry’s spokesperson declined to comment.
Technical committee
Technical matters associated with the best mechanism for filling and operating the Renaissance Dam without affecting the two downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, are still being debated after the Tripartite National Technical Committee, composed of 12 experts from Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia, held 16 rounds of negotiations, the latest of which was on Oct. 15 in Addis Ababa, to reach an agreement on the initial technical report submitted by the two French consulting firms, BRL and Artelia, in late March 2017.
On Sept. 20, 2016 in the Sudanese capital Khartoum, the three countries signed the contracts for the technical studies with the two French firms, marking the preparation for a technical file on the Renaissance Dam and its effect on downstream countries. The studies were supposed to be finalized by the two French firms last August according to the time frame of 11 months defined by the declaration of principles agreement, followed by the Khartoum Document, which was signed by the three countries’ foreign ministers in December 2015, in addition to a period of four months dedicated for the technical committee’s members to reach consensus on how to implement the studies’ outcomes.
“Ethiopia’s strategy is to either impose its views during the technical discussions or withdraw from all agreements and restart negotiations from scratch,” Raslan said. “Faced with this approach, Egypt had no decisive negotiation strategy and relied instead on successive concessions in hopes of mellowing Ethiopia, which never happened.”
Egypt’s Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Mohamed Abdel Ati predicted earlier that Ethiopia would start storing water in the GERD reservoir next year.
On Sept. 28, 2017, Misr News Agency quoted the minister saying: “The impact of the Renaissance Dam has not yet been experienced because the flow of water into Egypt is no different from that experienced during previous years, but it is very likely that part of the dam will be filled next year.”
He also stressed the importance of consensus on the method of filling and operating the dam.
In a press statement published on Oct. 18, 2017, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation said that Egypt confirmed no water had been stored behind GERD this year and nothing was impeding the flow of water into the country until now.
The press statement was released a day after an Egyptian delegation, headed by Abdel Ati, on Oct. 17 visited the dam in Benishangul, which is 20 km from the Sudanese border, and “the visit was the first of its kind for an Egyptian government official.”
Complete filling
In addition to the dispute over Ethiopia’s intention to start the unilateral filling of the GERD reservoir as part of what it calls “the first filling,” what Ethiopia calls “the complete filling” poses a greater danger, said Hani Raslan, Nile basin and Sudanese affairs expert.
“Ethiopia insists on filling the reservoir within three years, which will deprive Egypt of around 25 billion cubic meters of water every year — almost half of its annual allocation of the Nile’s water,” Raslan explained. “Egypt, on the other hand, demanded filling the reservoir over a period of nine years.”
“If we take into account the annual loss of water caused by leakage and evaporation, the complete filling is expected to drain almost 90 billion cubic meters of water, not 74 billion cubic meters, which represents the final storage volume,” he added.
In the context of a strategic approach supported by several international and regional parties to reshape and strengthen Ethiopia’s influence and turn it into the greatest power in East Africa and the Nile basin, Addis Ababa has plans to export hydroelectric power.
Ethiopian attempt to begin filling Renaissance Dam may scupper deal with Egypt and Sudan, say experts
Ethiopian attempt to begin filling Renaissance Dam may scupper deal with Egypt and Sudan, say experts
Qatar PM meets Hamas delegation for Gaza ceasefire talks
- It is unusual for Qatari PM to be publicly involved in mediation process deadlocked for months
- Israel’s war in Gaza has killed over 44,000 people since October 2023, triggering calls for ceasefire
DOHA: Qatar’s prime minister met a Hamas delegation in Doha on Saturday to discuss a “clear and comprehensive” ceasefire deal to end the war in Gaza, a statement said.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani held talks with a Hamas team led by senior official Khalil Al-Hayya, the foreign ministry statement said.
It is unusual for Sheikh Mohammed, who is also Qatar’s foreign minister, to be publicly involved in the mediation process that has appeared deadlocked for months.
“During the meeting, the latest developments in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations were reviewed, and ways to advance the process were discussed to ensure a clear and comprehensive agreement that brings an end to the ongoing war in the region,” the statement said.
Earlier this month, the sheikh expressed optimism that “momentum” was returning to the talks following Donald Trump’s election victory in the United States.
“We have sensed, after the election, that the momentum is coming back,” he said at the Doha Forum political conference.
The incoming Trump administration had given “a lot of encouragement in order to achieve a deal, even before the president comes to the office,” the premier added.
The Gulf emirate, along with the United States and Egypt, has been involved in months of unsuccessful negotiations for a Gaza truce and hostage release.
In November, Doha announced it had put its mediation on hold, saying that it would resume when Hamas and Israel showed “willingness and seriousness.”
But Doha then hosted indirect negotiations this month, with Hamas and Israel both reporting progress before again accusing each other of throwing up roadblocks.
Syria’s new intel chief vows reforms to end abuses
- Most of these installations are now guarded by fighters of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist group that led the armed coalition that seized power in Damascus
DAMASCUS: The new head of Syria’s intelligence services announced on Saturday a plan to dissolve the institutions that were so feared under the rule of ousted dictator Bashar Assad.
“The security establishment will be reformed after dissolving all services and restructuring them in a way that honors our people,” Anas Khattab said, two days after being appointed to his post by the country’s new leadership that overthrew Assad in early December.
In a statement carried by the official Sana news agency, he stressed the suffering of Syrians “under the oppression and tyranny of the old regime, through its various security apparatuses that sowed corruption and inflicted torture on the people.”
Prisons were emptied after Assad’s fall as officials and agents of the deposed regime fled.
Most of these installations are now guarded by fighters of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist group that led the armed coalition that seized power in Damascus.
Numerous Syrians have rushed to former detention centers in the hope of finding traces of relatives and friends who went missing during the 13 years of a devastating civil war that left more than a half million dead.
“The security services of the old regime were many and varied, with different names and affiliations, but all had in common that they had been imposed on the oppressed people for more than five decades,” Khattab continued.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), more than 100,000 people died in Syrian prisons and detention centers during the conflict.
On Thursday, a general who ran military justice under the former regime was arrested in the west of country, accused of being responsible for sentencing to death thousands of people held in the notorious Saydnaya prison.
And in Europe, several former senior Syrian intelligence officers accused of torture and other abuses have been convicted and jailed since 2022.
Turkiye court jails three for life over death of 8-year-old girl
- Narin disappeared on August 21, sparking a huge search effort in Turkiye, with a number of well-known figures joining a “Find Narin” social media campaign
DIYARBAKIR, Turkiye: A Turkish court on Saturday sentenced three suspects including family members to life in prison over the mysterious death of an eight-year-old girl in the southeastern province of Diyarbakir, an AFP journalist saw.
The body of Narin Guran, who had been missing for 19 days, was found in September in a bag in a river around one kilometer (0.6 miles) from the village where she lived with her family.
After a tense day-long hearing, the court in Diyarbakir handed Narin’s mother, elder brother and uncle an aggravated life sentence on charges of “deliberate murder in collaboration,” according to the journalist at the courthouse.
The judge sentenced another suspect Nevzat Bahtiyar, who had confessed to the murder, to four years and six months in prison.
Police heightened security measures inside and outside the tribunal as the judge read out the verdict.
The court said that Bahtiyar found the body at Narin’s home, adding that he carried and hid it.
Abdulkadir Gulec, head of the bar association in Diyarbakir, told reporters the court verdict was near what they had expected.
“Bahtiyar should have received the same penalty,” he said.
Lawyers Nait Eren said they would object to the court’s ruling on Bahtiyar.
No motive was given for Narin’s murder.
Narin disappeared on August 21, sparking a huge search effort in Turkiye, with a number of well-known figures joining a “Find Narin” social media campaign.
Soon after the body was found, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed profound sadness and said he would “personally follow the judicial process” so that those who took Narin’s life received the harshest punishment.
Prosecutors said in the indictment that the murder was likely committed by those close to Narin. They also accused Narin’s uncle — who is the highest local administrator in the village — of misleading authorities during the initial manhunt.
Speaking to the court during the hearing, Narin’s mother Yuksel denied the charges, lamenting that she would never see her daughter get married.
“They didn’t let my daughter wear a wedding dress, they put her in a shroud,” she told the judge.
“I didn’t even see her shroud or her grave,” she said. “My daughter was brutally killed.”
Yuksel also denied claims that she killed her other daughter, saying that she was physically handicapped and died in hospital.
2024 Year in Review: When turmoil and divisions deepened in Libya
- Fractured governance blamed for cycles of conflict and foreign meddling among other problems in 2024
- Local elections failed to provide a pathway to political reconciliation, stability and sovereignty
LONDON: When the Arab uprisings swept through the Middle East and North Africa in 2011, many in the West hoped the fall of these entrenched regimes would herald a new era of development and good governance. Instead, it marked the beginning of a period of unprecedented suffering for millions.
Nearly 14 years later, in the wake of a grinding civil war, there are now renewed hopes that Syria, after its brutally suppressed uprising, might finally be stepping into the light following the toppling of the Bashar Assad regime.
However, as a diverse array of victorious armed opposition groups struggle to impose order and unity on a fractured nation, many observers share a common fear — that Syria could become another Libya.
Indeed, since the NATO-backed uprising that ousted Muammar Qaddafi, Libya has become a byword for state failure — divided between rival administrations, plagued by criminality, and used as a proxy battleground by foreign powers keen to exploit its oil and strategic location.
While 2024 offered glimpses of possible reconciliation between the North African nation’s competing factions, steps toward national elections, and perhaps even justice for its long-suffering citizens, the country remains deeply unstable as it enters the new year.
In April, Abdoulaye Bathily, the UN special envoy to Libya, resigned, citing the country’s entrenched political stalemate. His resignation followed 18 months of attempts to mediate between Libya’s divided factions, but a “lack of political will and good faith” thwarted progress.
“The selfish resolve of current leaders to maintain the status quo must stop,” Bathily told the Security Council. The delay of the national reconciliation conference, originally scheduled for April, highlighted the ongoing gridlock.
While Libya’s oil-rich economy offers immense potential, it remains plagued by a fractured political landscape — with the Tripoli-based UN-recognized Government of National Unity headed by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh opposing the eastern administration allied with General Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army.
Bathily’s departure underscored the international community’s struggle to bring stability to a nation divided since the 2011 uprising. Despite his efforts, Libya’s entrenched rivalries and external meddling have kept progress elusive, prolonging the suffering of its population.
Libya’s fragile peace was repeatedly shattered in 2024, with violence escalating across major cities and border regions. In May, clashes in Zawiya between militias loyal to the GNU left one dead and six injured.
Violence escalated in Tripoli in July, where clashes between the Interior Ministry’s Special Deterrence Forces, also known as RADA, and Presidential Council units resulted in 13 fatalities, including civilians. August brought another tragedy in Tripoli, with nine killed in militia fighting.
Although political leaders have periodically called for ceasefires, the lack of cohesive state authority has allowed armed factions to exploit and perpetuate the chaos, leaving Libyans trapped in repeated cycles of violence.
Amid this summer of bloodshed, there was a glimmer of justice. In July, Libya’s Derna Criminal Court sentenced 12 officials to up to 27 years in prison for their roles in the catastrophic Sept. 10, 2023, dam collapse.
The disaster, triggered by Storm Daniel, unleashed torrents of water that obliterated entire neighborhoods in the coastal city of Derna, claiming thousands of lives.
Neglected infrastructure and corruption were deemed key factors in the disaster, as funds earmarked for dam maintenance were found to have been misappropriated. The court’s verdict represented a rare moment of accountability in a nation fraught with impunity.
While some saw this as a step toward justice, critics argue systemic reform is still absent.
Rebuilding efforts in Derna remain slow, hindered by political infighting. Meanwhile, the disaster’s survivors, grappling with trauma and displacement, want to see comprehensive infrastructure upgrades to prevent future tragedies.
September brought a breakthrough as Libya’s rival legislative bodies agreed to appoint Naji Mohamed Issa Belqasem as interim central bank governor, ending months of turmoil over financial leadership.
This crisis erupted when Tripoli’s Presidential Council moved to replace longstanding Governor Sadiq Al-Kabir, leading eastern factions to halt oil production in protest.
Libya’s oil-dependent economy suffered immensely, with crude exports plummeting from 1 million barrels per day in August to just 400,000 in September.
The UN facilitated the agreement, urging an end to unilateral decisions that deepen institutional divisions. While the resolution temporarily eased tensions, it highlighted the broader issue of competing power centers undermining Libya’s economic stability.
With the interim governor tasked to form a board of directors, the deal’s success hinges on sustained cooperation, a rare commodity in Libya’s fragmented political landscape.
The murder of Abdel-Rahman Milad, a notorious Libyan Coast Guard commander known as “Bija,” in September spotlighted Libya’s lawlessness and corruption.
Sanctioned by the UN in 2018 for human trafficking, Milad symbolized the overlap of state and criminal enterprise.
Speculation still abounds about the reason behind his killing — ranging from militia infighting to fears he might expose high-level corruption.
Milad’s killing also raised questions about the EU’s reliance on Libyan partners accused of human rights abuses to help control the flow of migration to Europe.
Observers see his death as a byproduct of power struggles between rival gangs and a reflection of Libya’s inability to reform its fractured governance and security apparatus.
While Milad’s death may serve as a test for Libya’s broken justice system, there has been some progress on addressing historic injustices.
October saw the International Criminal Court unseal arrest warrants for six Libyans implicated in war crimes during the Second Libyan Civil War of 2014-20. The suspects, linked to the Kaniyat militia, face charges including murder, torture and sexual violence.
These crimes occurred in Tarhuna, a town notorious for mass graves uncovered in 2020 after the militia’s retreat.
The ICC warrants mark a significant step toward accountability and highlight ongoing international scrutiny of Libya’s human rights record. However, Libya’s weak judicial system and fragmented governance pose challenges to enforcing these warrants.
As families of victims seek closure, the outcome may set a precedent for addressing atrocities committed during Libya’s protracted conflict.
In November, the GNU’s Interior Minister Emad Al-Trabelsi sparked widespread condemnation from human rights groups when he announced plans to establish a morality police force.
The new force would enforce conservative social norms, including mandatory veiling for girls over the age of nine and restrictions on women’s mobility without a male guardian.
Al-Trabelsi justified the move as preserving “Islamic social values,” dismissing personal freedom as incompatible with Libyan society.
However, the measures appear to have been slapped down by the GNU. There are also doubts that the government even has the means to enforce such rules.
“Al-Trabelsi’s sweeping moral measures were never likely to materialize,” Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya expert and senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told Arab News. “Enforcing such rules requires broad territorial control, religious credibility, and a clear moral gap to address.
“Much of Libya’s population is already conservative, the Interior Ministry lacks religious backing, and no armed actor — Al-Trabelsi included — can truly project power citywide, let alone nationwide.
“Unsurprisingly, nothing substantial has followed the initial announcement, which had drawn so much international attention.”
While national elections intended to reunify the country have been repeatedly postponed, November’s municipal polls marked a rare democratic exercise, with voting held simultaneously in Libya’s east and west for the first time since 2014.
Despite logistical challenges and political tensions, voter turnout hit 77 percent, signaling public demand for stability. The elections even included areas previously under military control, where mayors had been replaced with appointees.
International observers, including the G7, praised the process as a step toward national reconciliation. However, skepticism remains about whether these local elections can pave the way for overdue presidential and parliamentary votes.
Libya has become one of the busiest and most deadly routes used by migrants and refugees attempting to reach Europe — something that armed groups have long facilitated for a profit or have sought to curtail, often brutally, in exchange for EU funding.
Tragedy struck Libya’s migrant routes repeatedly in 2024, with multiple fatal incidents highlighting the perils faced by those seeking refuge.
In September, a boat capsized near Tobruk, leaving 22 missing. October brought another disaster, with only one survivor from a vessel carrying 13 passengers. Then in November, 28 people disappeared off Libya’s coast when their rubber boat got into difficulty.
Rights groups criticized both Libyan and European policies that push migrants into perilous crossings. The Mediterranean remains a graveyard for those fleeing violence and poverty, with international efforts to address the crisis falling short.
The Kremlin’s strategic ambitions in Libya are likely to keep growing in the new year as it seeks to offset losses in Syria following the overthrow earlier this month of Assad, a key ally who had permitted Russian use of air and naval bases.
Moscow has deepened ties with General Haftar’s Libyan National Army in recent years, using Libya as a launchpad for expanding its influence in North Africa and the Sahel.
The Wagner Group, a Russian private military contractor recently rebranded as the Africa Corps, has established bases in southern Libya, supporting resource extraction and military operations across the continent.
Russia’s efforts to consolidate its presence in Libya align with broader objectives to counter NATO and secure Mediterranean access for its ships.
As Libya’s rival factions vie for power, analysts believe this kind of foreign influence could further complicate efforts to achieve peace and sovereignty.
While Syria embarks on its own delicate transition out of war and dictatorship, Libya stands as a cautionary tale for what can happen when factionalism, greed, and foreign interests are allowed to trump the needs and aspirations of a long-suffering people.
Netanyahu to undergo prostate removal surgery
- Israeli leader diagnosed with urinary tract infection resulting from benign prostate enlargement
JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is to undergo prostate removal surgery on Sunday, his office said after he was diagnosed with a urinary tract infection.
The procedure comes with Israel at war against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip more than 14 months after the Palestinian militants carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7 last year.
Netanyahu underwent a test at Hadassah Hospital on Wednesday, where he was “diagnosed with a urinary tract infection resulting from a benign prostate enlargement,” the prime minister’s office said in a statement.
“As a result, the prime minister will undergo prostate removal surgery tomorrow,” it said.
In March, he underwent a hernia surgery, while in July last year doctors implanted a pacemaker in Netanyahu after a medical scare.