BEIRUT: His nation is a smoldering ruin, much of it held by rival armed factions, domestic or foreign. Half the population is displaced, hundreds of thousands have died and much of the West regards him as a tyrant and human rights abuser. But Syrian President Bashar Assad appears to have survived the war and is likely to hold onto power for the foreseeable future.
The sides in Syria’s civil war are preparing for what will be the eighth round of UN-sponsored peace talks in Geneva intended to forge a path forward for a political transition to end the conflict. But barring any surprises, no negotiated resolution is likely to lead to Assad’s ouster.
One reason is military. Assad’s forces have had the momentum on the ground the past year, backed by an overwhelming Russian air campaign and fighters from Iran and Hezbollah. Assad’s government now controls more than 50 percent of Syria.
Holding half the country normally wouldn’t be an optimistic sign, but that’s up from 19 percent earlier this year. His troops control Syria’s four largest cities, 10 of Syria’s 14 provincial capitals and its Mediterranean coast. Also, no force on the ground is capable of driving Assad out at this stage.
On the diplomatic front, the top supporters of the opposition, the United States and its allies, long ago backed off demands that any deal involve Assad’s immediate removal. Now they are pushing for a plan for elections that could bring a new leader. But Assad’s ally Russia now dominates the negotiating process, meaning there is little pressure on him to accept real elections. A political solution under his terms would be to incorporate opposition members into a national unity government under his leadership.
Assad’s opposition is in disarray. The top opposition negotiator, Riyad Hijab, resigned on Monday, complaining that foreign powers were carving up Syria and brokering side deals to “prolong the life of Bashar Assad’s regime.” He leaves his post just two days before the opposition was to meet in Saudi Arabia to come up with a unified delegation and negotiating stance. Saudi Arabia has already signaled to the opposition it has to come to terms with Assad’s survival.
Assad looks increasingly confident. On Monday, he traveled to Sochi for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the second time Assad has traveled to Russia or left the country in the course of the country’s civil war.
Earlier this month, Assad’s office posted on social media a photo of the president and the first lady, Asma, strolling through their Damascus palace courtyard, smiling at each other. The picture is part of a propaganda campaign to project business as usual and confidence in the future. The presidency’s Instagram account produces daily images of the first couple visiting with students, families of slain fighters, orphanages and bakeries.
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in late October repeated Washington’s call for Assad to surrender control, insisting that “the reign of the Assad family is coming to an end.”
But turning that call into reality takes leverage that Washington doesn’t appear ready to use.
In a joint statement released earlier this month, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed that there is no military solution to the conflict in Syria. They made vague comments about Assad’s “recent commitment to the Geneva process and constitutional reform and elections” as called for under a United Nations Security Council resolution.
There are few scenarios that could bring about Assad’s fall. One would be if the US struck a deal that convinced Russia to force Assad to accept a political transition that ensures his departure from the presidency. But it is hard to imagine what incentive the US could give Moscow to dump its ally. Another scenario would be if the US or other opposition backers reversed course and launched an all-out military drive against Assad.
“That requires massive escalation, restarting the war from scratch to roll back Assad’s gains and creating an opposition that is both able to govern and acceptable to the international community,” said Aron Lund, a fellow with the New York-based think tank The Century Foundation.
“Looking at the conflict right now and how the opposition’s allies are all backing away — it’s just not going to happen,” he said.
Trump ended a CIA-backed program training rebel forces trying to oust Assad. The United States has been more focused on fighting the Daesh group in Syria, supporting Kurdish-led forces that have successfully rolled back the militants and took control of nearly a quarter of the country.
Turkey, another top supporter of the opposition, is more concerned with thwarting the ambitions of the Kurds in Syria than with ousting Assad. It backs a force of opposition factions holding an enclave of territory in northern Syria and skirmishing with the Kurds.
The main rebel-held area focused on fighting Assad is in the northwestern province of Idlib, but it is dominated by Al-Qaeda-allied factions.
Russia, meanwhile, helped mediate a series of local cease-fires between Assad’s forces and rebels on most fronts around the country. That has allowed Assad and his allies — troops from Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas and Iraqi Shiite militiamen— to focus on battling the Daesh group in the east.
On Sunday, state-run media announced that Assad’s forces have recaptured the town of Boukamal, the Daesh group’s last significant stronghold in Syria, leaving the militants to defend just strips of desert territory in the country and a besieged pocket outside the capital, Damascus.
“To be sure there will be flare-ups of violence and bombings and unrest,” Lund said. “But he (Assad) holds the center, he holds most of the population, he’s got the economy and the institutions and the UN seat. ... He has all the stuff he needs to continue to rule.”
When Syria’s conflict began with mass protests in March 2011, many expected Assad to be quickly toppled like other Arab leaders. Regional and international supporters of the opposition poured in money and weapons and then US President Barack Obama and other Western leaders declared the Assad dynasty finished.
Assad’s determination never wavered throughout the conflict, aided by the opposition’s fragmentation and Russia and Iran’s inerventions.
Nikolaos Van Dam, author of the book “Destroying A Nation: The Civil War in Syria,” said Western countries created false expectations by calling on Assad to step down while only offering half-hearted support for the opposition and underestimating the cohesion of Assad’s leadership.
His country a smoldering ruin, but Assad still in his seat
His country a smoldering ruin, but Assad still in his seat
UN calls for $370m in new humanitarian aid for Lebanon
- Following nearly a year of exchanges of cross-border fire initiated by Hezbollah over the war in Gaza, Israel in September stepped up its bombing campaign and later sent troops into Lebanon
UNITED NATIONS, United States: The United Nations joined the Lebanese government on Tuesday to appeal for an additional $371.4 million in humanitarian aid for people displaced by the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
The extension builds on an initial aid appeal for $426 million launched in October, as all-out war flared between the two sides and sent hundreds of thousands in Lebanon fleeing their homes.
That appeal raised approximately $250 million, according to the UN.
Following nearly a year of exchanges of cross-border fire initiated by Hezbollah over the war in Gaza, Israel in September stepped up its bombing campaign and later sent troops into Lebanon.
After two months of warring, in which Hezbollah’s influential chief Hassan Nasrallah and multiple other leaders were killed, a ceasefire deal was reached that went into effect in late November.
“While the cessation of hostilities offers hope, over 125,000 people remain displaced, and hundreds of thousands more face immense challenges rebuilding their lives,” Imran Riza, the UN humanitarian coordinator in Lebanon, said in a statement Tuesday.
The additional funding “is urgently required to sustain life-saving efforts and prevent further deterioration of an already dire situation,” he added.
The appeal is primarily aimed to assist an estimated one million Lebanese, Syrian and Palestinian refugees affected by the conflict, funding a three-month period of emergency efforts through March 2025.
Since the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon began on November 27, more than 800,000 displaced people in Lebanon have been able to return home, according to UN figures.
Qatar and Turkiye dispatch two power ships to generate electricity for Syria
- The vessels, which have power plants installed, are expected to increase the amount of electricity generated in the country by about 50 percent
- Syria’s energy infrastructure was badly damaged during the decade-long civil war, with most areas receiving power for only two or three hours a day
LONDON: Qatar and Turkiye sent two power-generating ships to Syria on Tuesday to help address the energy crisis in the country caused by insufficient electricity supplies.
Khaled Abu Di, the director of Syria’s Public Establishment for Transmission and Distribution of Electricity, said the floating power plants are capable of generating a total of 800 megawatts a day, which would increase the amount of electricity generated in the country by about 50 percent, state news agency SANA reported.
Syria’s energy infrastructure was badly damaged during more than a decade of civil war in the country that culminated in the fall of the ruling Assad regime in December. The deterioration resulted in severe power shortages, with many areas receiving electricity for only two or three hours a day.
Abu Di said efforts are underway to secure transmission lines to deliver the electricity generated by the ships. He added that his team is also working to repair dozens of damaged conversion plants and connection lines to get the national grid up and running again.
How Israeli law permitting child detention imperils the rights of Palestinian minors
- Under legislation passed in November by the Knesset, Israeli authorities are permitted to imprison Palestinians under the age of 14
- Rights monitors say Israel has detained some 460 children since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack triggered the Gaza war
DUBAI: Frightened, alone, and often injured during arrest, Palestinian children routinely find themselves vulnerable to abuses and deprived of basic rights after they are taken into Israeli custody, according to human rights monitors.
Under legislation passed in November by the Knesset, Israeli authorities are now permitted to detain Palestinians under the age of 14 — a measure that rights groups claim is motivated by revenge rather than security needs.
The bill, proposed by a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and approved by 53-33 votes, allows judges to sentence minors between the ages of 12 and 14 to prison terms if convicted of terrorist murder, manslaughter, or attempted murder.
According to the law, which was passed as a temporary measure lasting for five years, convicted minors can be held in closed facilities until they turn 14, after which they can be transferred to regular prisons.
An identical law, which was passed in 2016 following a series of attacks carried out by teenagers and other minors, expired in 2020.
According to the Palestinian Commission for Detainees and Ex-Detainees Affairs, Israel imprisoned more than 460 children between the months of October 2023 and January 2024.
INNUMBERS
460
Children imprisoned by Israel between October 2023 and January 2024, according to the Palestinian Commission for Detainees and Ex-Detainees Affairs.
16
Israeli courts have long defined the term ‘Palestinian child’ as a person under the age of 16, rather than the internationally recognized age of 18.
The Israeli parliament also passed a law in November that allows for the deportation of the family members of those convicted of attacks on Israeli citizens.
Furthermore, it allows for the deportation of the family members of those who had advance knowledge and either failed to report the matter to the police or “expressed support or identification with an act of terrorism.”
Relatives of those who published “praise, sympathy or encouragement for an act of terrorism or a terrorist organization” can also be deported.
“This is a historic and important day for all citizens of Israel,” Itamar Ben Gvir, Israel’s national security minister, said in a statement welcoming the bill, which he said “sends a clear message the State of Israel will not allow the families of the terrorists to continue enjoying life as if nothing had happened.
“From today onwards, every father, mother, child, brother, sister or spouse who identifies with and supports their family member who harmed the citizens of Israel will be deported.”
Both Israel’s Justice Ministry and the Attorney General’s Office raised concerns about the legislation, which stipulates that those being expelled would be sent to Gaza or other destinations for 7-15 years for citizens or 10-20 years for legal residents.
Some opposition members of the Knesset suggested at the time that the legislation is targeted specifically at Palestinian citizens of Israel, saying the law is unlikely to apply to Jewish Israelis convicted of terrorism offenses.
Israeli and Palestinian human rights organizations have branded both new laws unconstitutional.
Hadeel Abu Salih, an attorney working for Adalah, the Legal Center for Arab Minority Rights in Israel, sent a letter to the Israeli parliament claiming the legislation was motivated by revenge and retribution.
Abu Salih also said the legislation contradicts the principles of Israel’s Youth Law, which stresses rehabilitation over punitive measures for minors.
The Legal Center released a statement saying that “through these laws, Israel further entrenches its two-tiered legal system, with one set of laws for Jewish Israelis under criminal law and another, with inferior rights, for Palestinians under the pretext of counterterrorism.
“By embedding apartheid-like policies into the law, the Knesset further institutionalized systematic oppression, in contravention of both international law and basic human and constitutional rights.”
Since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel that triggered the Gaza war, Israeli forces have significantly increased the rate of arrests of Palestinian children, both in Gaza and the West Bank.
Between October and November 2023 alone, 254 minors were reportedly arrested by Israeli forces. Some of these detainees have since been released.
The bulk of the arrest operations appear to take place in towns, camps, and other areas with points of contact with Israeli checkpoints. Although the precise charges leveled against these minors are unknown, the most common offense is throwing stones.
In some cases, rights monitors say children under the age of 10 are taken in order to pressure their relatives to surrender themselves to Israeli authorities.
Palestinian children released from Israeli detention often describe traumatic experiences, recounting harsh measures enforced by guards and the prison administration, including allegations of physical and psychological torture during interrogation.
Testimonies shared with Save the Children include severe beatings in the presence of their relatives, being shot at, having their legs restrained, and being blindfolded during transfers between detention centers.
Several claim that food and water were also withheld for long periods of time as a form of punishment. Some have even alleged sexual abuse. Monitors say minors are routinely denied their right to legal aid and at times the presence of a family member during their interrogations.
As a result of these abuses, minors are allegedly coerced into signing false confessions and into signing documents without understanding their content. Children are also rarely granted bail before standing trial.
The Palestinian Commission for Detainees and Ex-Detainees Affairs and the Palestinian Prisoners Society have expressed concern about the ongoing detention of children and the alleged abuses.
Both say the behavior of Israeli prison administrations and conditions inside overcrowded facilities have become worse since the Oct. 7, 2023, attack.
Monitors say the detention centers holding minors do not meet the minimum humanitarian standards. A large number of detained children are reportedly sharing cells and are deprived of an education, medical assistance, and personal items such as books and clothing.
Israeli courts have long defined the term “Palestinian child” as a person under the age of 16, rather than the internationally recognized age of 18 as defined by the Convention on the Rights of the Child.
Israeli authorities have previously denied the maltreatment of detainees.
Responding to separate claims by the UN in March last year about the alleged mistreatment of adults captured in Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces told the BBC: “The mistreatment of detainees during their time in detention or whilst under interrogation violates IDF values and contravenes IDF and is therefore absolutely prohibited.”
Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur for Palestine, accused the international community of failing to address the detention of Palestinian children, saying minors in Israeli custody are “tormented often beyond the breaking point.”
On World Children’s Day, marked by the UN on Nov. 20, the Palestinian Commission for Detainees and Ex-Detainees Affairs released a statement saying that around 270 Palestinian children were being held in Israeli jails.
“The occupation continues to detain no less than 270 children, who are mainly held in Ofer and Megiddo prisons, in addition to camps established by the occupation army after the Gaza war,” the commission said.
“Systematic crimes are being committed by the prison administration against the jailed children, in addition to beatings, torture, and daily abuses.”
According to Palestinian rights monitors, more than 11,700 people from the West Bank have been detained since October 2023. This does not include those from the Gaza Strip, where the number of arrests is thought to be far higher.
Similarly, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Palestinian Authority urged the international community on World Children’s Day to pressure Israel to honor its commitments to global treaties, especially the Convention on the Rights of the Child.
It stressed the need to ensure Palestinian children are not excluded from international charters that call for special protections for children against violence and detention.
The ministry also condemned the law undertaken by the Knesset to detain children under the age of 14 years, calling it a dangerous escalation that further undermines Palestinian children’s rights.
Despite international and local human rights organizations calling for the abolition of the Knesset’s child detention laws, the Israeli government insists the law will remain in place for the next five years.
Germany pushing for EU to relax sanctions on Syria, sources say
- This requires an unanimous EU decision
- Germany’s foreign ministry declined to comment
BERLIN: Germany is leading European Union discussions on easing sanctions imposed on the Syrian government of toppled President Bashar Assad and aiding the country’s population, foreign ministry sources said on Tuesday.
“We are actively discussing ways to provide sanctions relief to the Syrian people in certain sectors,” one of the sources said. This requires an unanimous EU decision.
Germany’s foreign ministry declined to comment.
A lightning rebel offensive overthrew Assad on Dec. 8 and Islamist rebels Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which led the advance, set up a caretaker government.
The US on Monday issued a six-month sanctions exemption for transactions with some government bodies to ease the flow of humanitarian assistance, address Syria’s power shortages and allow personal remittances.
The EU, United States, Britain and other governments imposed tough sanctions on Syria after Assad’s crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 2011 spiraled into civil war.
HTS has renounced its ties with Al Qaeda but is still designated a terrorist entity by the United Nations and US
German officials first circulated thoughts on easing sanctions on Syria in documents sent to Brussels before Christmas.
The FT first reported on Tuesday that the documents outline how the EU could gradually ease restrictions on Damascus in return for progress on social issues, including safeguarding minority and women’s rights and upholding commitments to ensuring non-proliferation of weapons.
The FT, citing an unnamed source familiar with the EU discussions, added that, like Washington, the bloc could make any easing of sanctions temporary to ensure that it could be reversed if necessary.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Friday traveled to Syria for a one-day trip with her French counterpart on behalf of the EU and met with HTS leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa.
Baerbock said during her visit that all Syrian groups including women and Kurds must be involved in the country’s transition if Damascus wants European support.
Gaza officials say children killed as Israel hits Khan Yunis
- Four children were killed when a drone strike hit their tent in the Al-Mawasi area
- Two people were killed when a strike hit a car in Khan Yunis
GAZA STRIP, Palestinian Territories: Gaza health officials said a wave of Israeli strikes hit the territory’s southern district of Khan Yunis on Tuesday evening, killing a dozen people, seven of them children.
At least five strikes targeted parts of Khan Yunis, including one in the Al-Mawasi area where thousands of displaced Palestinians are living in tents along the coast.
Four children were killed when a drone strike hit their tent in the Al-Mawasi area, the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry reported.
A witness told AFP that several tents caught fire from the strike, which also wounded more than 20 people.
Five people, including three children, were killed and several wounded in a strike on a house in Khan Yunis, Gaza’s civil defense agency said.
Two people were killed when a strike hit a car in Khan Yunis, while another two were killed when an apartment was hit.
There was no immediate comment from the military about the latest strikes.
They came as mediators Qatar, Egypt and the United States brokered negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Doha on a deal to end the fighting in Gaza and secure the release of Israeli hostages.
In recent months, the Israeli military has focused its offensive on northern districts of Gaza, particularly the town of Jabalia and its adjacent refugee camp.
“We won’t stop. We will bring them (Hamas) to the point where they understand that they must return all hostages,” Israel’s army chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi told troops during a visit to Jabalia late on Monday.
“They see, every single day, what you are doing to them, and they understand that this is becoming unbearable,” he said, according to a statement released by the military.
During their October 7, 2023 attack, which sparked the war, Palestinian militants seized 251 hostages, of whom 96 remain in Gaza. The Israeli military says 34 of those are dead.
The attack resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people on Israeli side, mostly civilians, according to Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed 45,885 people in Gaza, a majority of them civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry that the United Nations considers reliable.
