Who’s who in the Syria conflict

A wounded boy reacts in a hospital after Sunday’s airstrike on the Syrian town of Mesraba in Eastern Ghouta, Damascus. (Reuters)
Updated 27 November 2017
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Who’s who in the Syria conflict

BEIRUT: Syria’s war has spiralled into a complex multi-sided conflict since it began with anti-regime protests in March 2011, drawing in regional and international powers including the US and Russia.
Here is a breakdown of the forces involved in the war, which has killed more than 340,000 people:
Syria’s 300,000-strong pre-war army has been halved by deaths, defections and draft-dodging.
It is bolstered by up to 200,000 irregulars and as many as 8,000 men from Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement as well as by Iranian, Iraqi and Afghan fighters.
Regime backer Russia launched an air campaign in support of President Bashar Assad in September 2015, helping Damascus recapture key areas including second city Aleppo.
In late November, Moscow said it would be scaling back its military presence by the end of 2017.
Iran has also given Assad major financial and military support.
The Syrian regime now holds 55 percent of the country, including major cities Damascus, Aleppo, Homs and Hama, and around two-thirds of the population lives in regime-held areas.

Multiple factions
Syria’s opposition comprises multiple factions including moderate rebels and radical groups, but it has shrunk from estimates of up to 100,000 fighters as the government has retaken territory.
Early in the uprising, the opposition coalesced under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), but the opposition has since splintered.
The once powerful Ahrar Al-Sham, a hard-line group, was in July ousted from most of its strongholds in Idlib province by a jihadist coalition led by their former ally Tahrir Al-Sham.
Another leading radical group, Jaish Al-Islam (Army of Islam), is active around Damascus.
The opposing groups who once controlled large areas now hold only around 12 percent of the country, according to Syrian geography expert Fabrice Balanche.
That includes areas now held by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, a coalition essentially composed of Al-Qaeda’s former affiliate.
Around 15 percent of Syria’s population lives in rebel-held territory.

Daesh atrocities
Two major rival extremist forces operate in Syria: Daesh and former Al-Qaeda affiliate, Fateh Al-Sham Front.
Daesh emerged from wars in Syria and Iraq to seize swathes of both countries in mid-2014.
It declared an Islamic “caliphate,” committed widespread atrocities and carried out or inspired deadly attacks around the world.
Since then, Daesh has suffered major losses under pressure from a US-backed alliance of Kurdish and Arab fighters, as well as Russian-backed regime offensives.
The group has been ousted from its former de facto Syrian capital Raqqa and now holds just five percent of Syria.
Fateh Al-Sham Front split in July 2016 from Al-Qaeda and later formed the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham terrorist coalition that controls most of Idlib.
Syria’s Kurds have largely avoided the conflict between the government and armed opposition, carving out a semi-autonomous region in northern and northeastern Syria.
Their People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia became a key partner of the US-led coalition fighting Daesh and forms the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an alliance of Kurdish and Arab fighters.
The YPG controls nearly 30 percent of Syrian territory, including some three quarters of the northern border with Turkey.
Around 15 percent of Syria’s population lives under Kurdish rule.

Turkey’s role
Turkey is taking the lead as international supporter of the opposition in negotiations on ending the conflict.
Along with Iran, Ankara and Moscow have worked closely in recent months to implement four “de-escalation zones” around the country, and the three countries are also planning a “congress” of opposition and government forces in Sochi.
On the ground, Turkey has battled both Daesh and Kurdish forces it accuses of being “terrorists.” It is also present in Idlib, monitoring the “de-escalation zone” there.

Coalition operations
A US-led coalition has targeted Daesh and other terrorists in Syria with airstrikes since 2014.
The coalition includes Britain, France, Saudi Arabia and Turkey along with Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Jordan, the Netherlands and the UAE.
It was a key backer of the SDF advance on Raqqa, and is supporting the militia in an operation against Daesh in neighboring Deir Ezzor province.
Since Raqqa’s capture, coalition strikes have dropped off drastically and Turkey says Washington has vowed to halt its supply of arms to the YPG, but US officials have said coalition forces do not expect to end their mission until a peace deal is negotiated.


15 Turkish-backed fighters killed in north Syria clashes with Kurdish-led forces

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15 Turkish-backed fighters killed in north Syria clashes with Kurdish-led forces

BEIRUT: At least 15 Ankara-backed Syrian fighters were killed Sunday after Kurdish-led forces infiltrated their territory in the country’s north, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said.
Fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who controls swathes of the country’s northeast, “infiltrated positions of the Turkish-backed” fighters in the Aleppo countryside, said the Observatory, which has a network of sources inside Syria.
“The two sides engaged in violent clashes” that killed 15 of the Ankara-backed fighters, the monitor said.
An AFP correspondent in Syria’s north said the clashes had taken place near the city of Al-Bab, where authorities said schools would be suspended on Monday due to the violence.
The SDF is a US-backed force that spearheaded the fighting against the Daesh group in its last Syria strongholds before its territorial defeat in 2019.
It is dominated by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), viewed by Ankara as an offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) which claimed the attack on Ankara.
Turkish troops and allied rebel factions control swathes of northern Syria following successive cross-border offensives since 2016, most of them targeting the SDF.


Israel moving towards a ceasefire deal in Lebanon, Axios reports

Updated 16 min 2 sec ago
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Israel moving towards a ceasefire deal in Lebanon, Axios reports

BEIRUT: Israel is moving towards a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon with the Hezbollah militant group, Axios reporter Barak Ravid posted on X on Sunday, citing a senior Israeli official.
A separate report from Israel's public broadcaster Kan, citing an Israeli official, said there was no green light given on an agreement in Lebanon, with issues still yet to be resolved.

 


Russia plane evacuated in Turkiye as engine catches fire

Updated 25 min 13 sec ago
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Russia plane evacuated in Turkiye as engine catches fire

  • “Eighty nine passengers and six crew members on board were safely evacuated at 9:43 p.m. (1843 GMT) and there were no injuries”

ISTANBUL: More than 90 passengers and crew were evacuated from a Russian plane Sunday after one of its engines caught fire while landing at an airport in southern Turkiye, the transport ministry said.
The incident involved a Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SU95) operated by Russia’s Azimuth Airlines.
They plane had just landed at Antalya airport on Turkiye’s Mediterranean coast when a fire broke out in one of its engines, a ministry statement said.
“A SU95 type and RA89085-registered aircraft of Azimuth Airlines traveling from Sochi airport in Russia to Antalya airport had an engine fire during landing,” it said.
“Eighty nine passengers and six crew members on board were safely evacuated at 9:43 p.m. (1843 GMT) and there were no injuries.”
All further scheduled landings at the airport would be canceled until 3:00 am, it added, saying other planes waiting to depart would use the airport’s military runway for takeoff.
An airport official told Anadolou state news agency that the fire had affected its left engine but had been quickly extinguished.

 


War-hit Lebanon suspends in-person classes in Beirut area til end of December

Smoke billows over Beirut’s southern suburbs after an Israeli strike, seen from Baabda.
Updated 25 November 2024
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War-hit Lebanon suspends in-person classes in Beirut area til end of December

  • Education minister announced “the suspension of in-person teaching” in schools, technical institutes and private higher education institutions in Beirut
  • Suspension of in-person teaching also applies to parts of neighboring Metn, Baabda and Shouf districts starting Monday

BEIRUT: Lebanon has suspended in-person classes in the Beirut area until the end of December, the education ministry announced Sunday, citing safety concerns after a series of Israeli air strikes this week.
Education Minister Abbas Halabi announced in a statement “the suspension of in-person teaching” in schools, technical institutes and private higher education institutions in Beirut and parts of the neighboring Metn, Baabda and Shouf districts starting Monday “for the safety of students, educational institutions and parents, in light of the current dangerous conditions.”
Earlier on Sunday, Lebanese state media reported two Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, about an hour after the Israeli military posted evacuation calls online for parts of the Hezbollah bastion.
“Israeli warplanes launched two violent strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs in the Kafaat area,” the official National News Agency said.
The southern Beirut area has been repeatedly struck since September 23 when Israel intensified its air campaign also targeting Hezbollah bastions in Lebanon’s east and south. It later sent in ground troops to southern Lebanon.


Legal threats close in on Israel’s Netanyahu, could impact ongoing wars   

Updated 24 November 2024
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Legal threats close in on Israel’s Netanyahu, could impact ongoing wars   

  • The trial opened in 2020 and Netanyahu is finally scheduled to take the stand next month after the court rejected his latest request to delay testimony on the grounds that he had been too busy overseeing the war to prepare his defense

JERUSALEM: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces legal perils at home and abroad that point to a turbulent future for the Israeli leader and could influence the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, analysts and officials say. The International Criminal Court (ICC) stunned Israel on Thursday by issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the 13-month-old Gaza conflict. The bombshell came less than two weeks before Netanyahu is due to testify in a corruption trial that has dogged him for years and could end his political career if he is found guilty. He has denied any wrongdoing. While the domestic bribery trial has polarized public opinion, the prime minister has received widespread support from across the political spectrum following the ICC move, giving him a boost in troubled times.
Netanyahu has denounced the court’s decision as antisemitic and denied charges that he and Gallant targeted Gazan civilians and deliberately starved them.
“Israelis get really annoyed if they think the world is against them and rally around their leader, even if he has faced a lot of criticism,” said Yonatan Freeman, an international relations expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
“So anyone expecting that the ICC ruling will end this government, and what they see as a flawed (war) policy, is going to get the opposite,” he added.
A senior diplomat said one initial consequence was that Israel might be less likely to reach a rapid ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon or secure a deal to bring back hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza.
“This terrible decision has ... badly harmed the chances of a deal in Lebanon and future negotiations on the issue of the hostages,” said Ofir Akunis, Israel’s consul general in New York.
“Terrible damage has been done because these organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas ... have received backing from the ICC and thus they are likely to make the price higher because they have the support of the ICC,” he told Reuters.
While Hamas welcomed the ICC decision, there has been no indication that either it or Hezbollah see this as a chance to put pressure on Israel, which has inflicted huge losses on both groups over the past year, as well as on civilian populations.

IN THE DOCK The ICC warrants highlight the disconnect between the way the war is viewed here and how it is seen by many abroad, with Israelis focused on their own losses and convinced the nation’s army has sought to minimize civilian casualties.
Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said the ICC move would likely harden resolve and give the war cabinet license to hit Gaza and Lebanon harder still.
“There’s a strong strand of Israeli feeling that runs deep, which says ‘if we’re being condemned for what we are doing, we might just as well go full gas’,” he told Reuters.
While Netanyahu has received wide support at home over the ICC action, the same is not true of the domestic graft case, where he is accused of bribery, breach of trust and fraud.
The trial opened in 2020 and Netanyahu is finally scheduled to take the stand next month after the court rejected his latest request to delay testimony on the grounds that he had been too busy overseeing the war to prepare his defense.
He was due to give evidence last year but the date was put back because of the war. His critics have accused him of prolonging the Gaza conflict to delay judgment day and remain in power, which he denies. Always a divisive figure in Israel, public trust in Netanyahu fell sharply in the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas assault on southern Israel that caught his government off guard, cost around 1,200 lives.
Israel’s subsequent campaign has killed more than 44,000 people and displaced nearly all Gaza’s population at least once, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe, according to Gaza officials.
The prime minister has refused advice from the state attorney general to set up an independent commission into what went wrong and Israel’s subsequent conduct of the war.
He is instead looking to establish an inquiry made up only of politicians, which critics say would not provide the sort of accountability demanded by the ICC.
Popular Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth said the failure to order an independent investigation had prodded the ICC into action. “Netanyahu preferred to take the risk of arrest warrants, just as long as he did not have to form such a commission,” it wrote on Friday.

ARREST THREAT The prime minister faces a difficult future living under the shadow of an ICC warrant, joining the ranks of only a few leaders to have suffered similar humiliation, including Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi and Serbia’s Slobodan Milosevic.
It also means he risks arrest if he travels to any of the court’s 124 signatory states, including most of Europe.
One place he can safely visit is the United States, which is not a member of the ICC, and Israeli leaders hope US President-elect Donald Trump will bring pressure to bear by imposing sanctions on ICC officials.
Mike Waltz, Trump’s nominee for national security adviser, has already promised tough action: “You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January,” he wrote on X on Friday. In the meantime, Israeli officials are talking to their counterparts in Western capitals, urging them to ignore the arrest warrants, as Hungary has already promised to do.
However, the charges are not going to disappear soon, if at all, meaning fellow leaders will be increasingly reluctant to have relations with Netanyahu, said Yuval Shany, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.
“In a very direct sense, there is going to be more isolation for the Israeli state going forward,” he told Reuters.