LONDON: Turkey, Oman, Pakistan and Ethiopia are among emerging markets that could be most hurt as central banks in developed countries raise interest rates, according to a report from S&P, the credit rating agency.
In its global sovereign rating outlook for 2018, S&P highlights the danger for emerging markets of accelerated interest rate rises in the years ahead, leading to capital outflows from emerging market securities and a reduction in direct foreign investment (FDI).
That could badly damage the economic model of some emerging economies, but to what extent remains to be seen, said the report.
According to S&P, the emerging market sovereigns most at risk from faster-than-expected monetary tightening are, in descending order: Venezuela, Bahamas, Mozambique, Montenegro, Turkey, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Kenya, Oman and Sri Lanka. Among the large emerging markets, Turkey appears the most exposed at No. 5, said S&P.
The agency said as the recovery of advanced economies gains breadth and depth, including in the euro zone, inflationary pressures could rise and trigger faster monetary normalization (higher rates) by the leading central banks than currently envisaged by the market.
The rub here, as S&P goes on to explain, is that foreign investors would then be sorely tempted to withdraw some invested funds from emerging markets to put back into advanced economies’ securities, which will provide higher real returns than they do currently.
S&P said: “Even relatively small shifts back to advanced economies’ securities relative to their outstanding volume can have a meaningful impact on emerging markets. This is because the capital market is simply so much larger in the advanced economies.”
In recent years, there have been unprecedented portfolio flows into emerging markets shares and other investment instruments that help those countries fund development and secure prosperity.
“But they also create a development model that is dependent on external financing conditions. This renders them vulnerable to sudden stops of capital inflows and possible reversals,” said S&P.
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) estimates that nonresident net portfolio inflows to emerging markets will reach a record $340 billion this year, followed by $435 billion in 2018. In comparison, the average for 2013-2016 was $200 billion.
Excluding flows into China, the average net inflows into emerging markets will still be
63 percent higher in 2017 than the average of 2013-2016, said IIF.
Added to these portfolio inflows are sizeable nonresident FDI inflows of close to $500 billion.
S&P said: “Portfolio inflows have grown particularly fast in recent years. And it is these portfolio flows that can be more volatile, potentially reversing direction very rapidly when confidence wanes or alternative investment opportunities open up.”
There is a strong correlation between vulnerability to monetary tightening and the sovereign rating.
According to S&P, the average rating of the 10 most vulnerable sovereigns is “B” and none of them carry an investment-grade rating. At the other end of the spectrum, the average rating of the 10 most resilient sovereigns is “BBB,” it said.
Turkey, Oman vulnerable if central banks hike rates too steeply, says S&P
Turkey, Oman vulnerable if central banks hike rates too steeply, says S&P
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait sign MoU to boost anti-money laundering efforts
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have signed a memorandum of understanding to bolster cooperation in the fight against money laundering and the financing of terrorism, reinforcing regional efforts to strengthen financial security.
The agreement, inked between Saudi Arabia’s General Department of Financial Investigations and Kuwait’s Financial Intelligence Unit, was finalized on the sidelines of the second meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council Committee of Financial Intelligence Units, held in Kuwait, the Kuwait News Agency reported.
The MoU aims to enhance intelligence sharing and operational coordination between the two nations. It is expected to significantly improve the effectiveness of the region’s financial crime prevention frameworks, aligning with international standards and bolstering joint mechanisms among GCC financial intelligence units.
The signing follows a virtual workshop hosted in March by the National Center for Non-Profit Sector Development, which focused on preventing money laundering and terrorist financing within non-profit organizations, including charitable groups and foundations.
The agreement also reflects broader economic ties between the two Gulf neighbors. In February, Kuwait’s exports to Saudi Arabia reached SR137 million ($36.5 million), up 19.6 percent from the previous year, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity.
Officials from both countries highlighted the MoU’s role in advancing national capabilities, fostering regional integration, and aligning with best practices in financial intelligence and compliance.
The renewed cooperation comes as Saudi Arabia continues to encourage Kuwaiti investment in its mining and industrial sectors.
In April, Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef met with a delegation of Kuwaiti businessmen during an official visit to Kuwait, emphasizing untapped opportunities in the Kingdom’s mining industry.
Alkhorayef underscored the sector’s importance to Saudi Vision 2030, which aims to position the Kingdom as a global industrial and mining hub. He cited estimates valuing Saudi mineral resources at over SR9.3 trillion.
Combatting money laundering remains a national priority for Saudi Arabia, which has implemented a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework to protect the integrity of its financial system and prevent illicit funding activities, including terrorism financing.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index edges down 0.34% to close at 10,574
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index edged lower on Sunday, falling 36.44 points, or 0.34 percent, to close at 10,574.27.
Total trading turnover reached SR3.72 billion ($991 million), with 134 stocks posting gains and 102 declining.
The Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, also recorded a slight dip, losing 27.14 points, or 0.10 percent, to settle at 26,148.69, as 34 stocks advanced and 39 retreated. Meanwhile, the MSCI Tadawul 30 Index dropped 5.34 points, or 0.39 percent, to finish at 1,361.80.
Alistithmar AREIC Diversified REIT Fund was the best-performing stock of the session, with its share price rising 10 percent to SR8.25. Al Sagr Cooperative Insurance Co. followed with a 9.96 percent increase to SR12.36, while Knowledge Economic City climbed 5.36 percent to close at SR12.98.
On the losing side, Retal Urban Development Co. saw the steepest decline, falling 5.10 percent to SR13.02. Flynas Co. dropped 4.13 percent to SR74.20, and Saudi Chemical Co. declined 3.85 percent to SR6.24.
Shares of Hawiya Identity Auctions began trading on Nomu at SR13 per share. According to a Tadawul statement, the offering comprised 2.4 million shares, with Derayah Financial Co. acting as lead manager.
Gas Arabian Services Co. announced the signing of a joint venture agreement with Italy’s BONOMI Co. to establish a valve manufacturing company in the Kingdom.
The new company will have a capital of SR5 million, with BONOMI holding a 60 percent stake and Gas Arabian Services owning 40 percent.
The Saudi firm will fund its SR2 million share from internal resources. The deal is expected to have a long-term positive financial impact, though it remains subject to regulatory approvals and the fulfillment of conditions outlined in the agreement. Gas Arabian Services shares closed at SR15, up 0.40 percent.
The price range for the offering of the Sports Clubs Co. ranged between SR7 and SR7.5 per share, according to a statement by Saudi Fransi Capital, the financial advisor and bookrunner for the institutional subscription.
The offering includes 34.32 million ordinary shares, representing 30 percent of the company’s capital.
Saudi culture sector to triple GDP share to $48bn by 2030, says minister
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia plans to raise the cultural sector’s contribution to gross domestic product to 3 percent — or SR180 billion ($48 billion) — by 2030, up from under 1 percent, according to Minister of Culture Prince Badr bin Abdullah bin Farhan.
In an interview with Al-Eqtisadiah, the minister said the sector has already surpassed its previous 0.91 percent GDP share, with Vision 2030 targets being met ahead of schedule.
“Vision 2030 forms the foundation of the Ministry of Culture’s strategy and direction,” he said.
“By 2030, we envision a cultural environment that nurtures talent, encourages innovation both locally and internationally, and supports the flourishing of creative and cultural enterprises.” Prince Badr said in the interview.
“Ultimately, our goal is to increase the sector’s contribution to GDP to 3 percent, equivalent to SR180 billion,” he said. “This represents the core mission of the Ministry of Culture and its affiliated bodies in driving an ambitious cultural transformation.”
Since the ministry’s founding in 2018, employment in the sector has jumped 318 percent, while the number of cultural graduates reached 28,800 in 2024, up 79 percent from 2018. The ministry has also issued over 9,000 licenses, while cultural associations and amateur clubs surged from 28 to 993.
“One notable outcome is the increase in the percentage of citizens who believe culture is important—from under 70 percent to 92 percent,” Prince Badr said. The ministry also oversees national celebrations such as Founding Day and Flag Day and has documented 9,317 antiquities sites and 25,000 urban heritage locations.
Saudi Arabia has now met its Vision 2030 target of having eight UNESCO World Heritage sites, with Al-Faw joining the list in 2024. Cultural event attendance exceeded 23.5 million between 2021 and 2024, and major festivals such as the Red Sea Film Festival and Islamic Arts Biennale have become global draws.
The Cultural Scholarship Program has awarded scholarships to 1,222 students studying at over 120 institutions across countries, including the US, the UK, and France. The program’s flexible design — no age limit or required academic background — has broadened participation. “Today, scholarship recipients are pursuing degrees in fields such as music, theater, and visual arts,” the minister said.
Through the Cultural Development Fund, the ministry has disbursed SR377 million to more than 120 projects. “Key areas of growth include heritage, music, and fashion. More than 1,200 creatives and entrepreneurs have benefited from its development services,” he added.
“Globally, there is increasing recognition of culture’s role in sustainable economic value creation,” the minister said. “Our role is to preserve and promote cultural identity while making it accessible and economically valuable.”
Saudi Arabia surpasses 116m tourists in 2024, exceeds goal for 2nd year
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia welcomed 116 million tourists in 2024, exceeding its annual visitor target for the second year in a row, the official data showed.
According to the Ministry of Tourism’s latest annual statistical report, the figure includes 29.7 million inbound tourists, an 8 percent increase year on year, and 86.2 million domestic trips, up 5 percent from 2023.
The milestone reflects the continued acceleration of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 strategy, which positions tourism as a central driver of economic diversification.
After surpassing its original 100 million visitor goal six years ahead of schedule in 2023, Saudi Arabia has revised its ambitions upward, now aiming to attract 150 million tourists annually by 2030. This figure is split between 70 million international and 80 million domestic visitors.
In a post on X, Minister of Tourism Ahmed Al-Khateeb said: “The 2024 Annual Statistical Report showcases the sector’s remarkable growth and its role in enabling Saudi Vision2030, a record performance achieved with the support and guidance of the Kingdom’s visionary leadership.”
Total tourism spending in 2024 hit SR283.8 billion ($75.6 billion), with inbound tourists contributing SR168.5 billion, up 19 percent from 2023, while domestic tourist expenditure reached SR115.3 billion, a 1 percent rise.
“The tourism sector continued to achieve record growth, reaffirming its transformation into a key driver of economic development and a fundamental pillar in advancing and diversifying the national economy,” the minister said.
Inbound tourism also reached a record monthly peak in March with 3.2 million visitors. The average international tourist stayed 19 nights and spent SR5,669 per trip.
A standout development in 2024 was the continued rise in non-religious tourism, now representing 59 percent of inbound visits compared to 44 percent in 2019.
Leisure and holiday travel topped this category, with related spending reaching SR36.4 billion.
Makkah remained the top destination, drawing 17.4 million overnight visitors, and Egypt was the leading source market with 3.2 million arrivals.
Regional analysis revealed that Asia and the Pacific accounted for the largest share of inbound tourists, at 33 percent, followed by the Middle East and North Africa at 28 percent, and the Gulf Cooperation Council at 27 percent.
Europe contributed 8 percent, while both the Americas and Africa each made up 2 percent of total visitors.
The sustained growth reflects the Kingdom’s continued focus on developing its tourism infrastructure and global outreach.
The ministry noted that this report highlights the exceptional and accelerated growth achieved by the sector through targeted marketing campaigns and support programs, contributing to the sector’s record-breaking performance.
Air France eyes daily Paris-Riyadh flights amid soaring demand
- New route reflects airline’s ambition to reestablish presence in Saudi market
- It comes in response to growing demand to access Kingdom’s expanding economic opportunities
RIYADH: Air France is planning to operate daily flights between Paris and Riyadh, a senior airline official told Arab News in an exclusive interview.
The announcement follows the launch of the carrier’s first direct route between Paris-Charles de Gaulle and King Khalid International Airport.
Stefan Gumuseli, the airline’s general manager for India and the Middle East, outlined the importance of the new route for the Air France-KLM Group and said it reflects the airline’s ambition to reestablish its presence in the Saudi market.
The decision comes in response to growing demand from travelers and investors eager to access the Kingdom’s expanding economic opportunities.
The new route marks a strategic step for Air France as it expands operations in the region and aligns with the growing connectivity between Europe and Saudi Arabia.
Talking to Arab News, Gumuseli said: “We’re starting with three weekly flights in mid-June, then gradually increasing to five. Our first major goal is to move to a daily service.”
He added that the market is not only outward-looking; the airline is also responding to rising inbound demand for Saudi Arabia, noting that it is experiencing almost exponential year-on-year growth.
Gumuseli also pointed to the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, which reflects a strong commitment to developing tourism, hospitality, and culture, supported by substantial ongoing investments. He said: “All these megaprojects are a clear sign that tourism is booming. We have a strong relationship with Saudi Arabia and are expanding our cooperation.”
His comments were echoed by Air France’s Senior Vice President for Benelux, Asia, India, the Middle East, and East Africa Bas Gerressen, who told Arab News: “Tourism is a very important factor, but we also need traffic, which has grown significantly over the past two years.
“The more connectivity there is between the two countries, the more economic exchange will flourish in both directions,” Gerressen added.
Air France-KLM has entered into codeshare agreements to strengthen its network connectivity.
“We also place our code on these flights. So, when you consider all that connectivity from both sides, demand can only grow,” Gerressen said.
He added: “I believe Saudi Arabia has many premium travelers, and we need to reach them in specific markets. We already have strong demand across our business, premium and economy classes.”
At the same time, the airline is leveraging its distinctive French identity.
‘We position ourselves as a truly French brand — luxury, elegance, sophistication ... The French Touch. You can feel it the moment you board,” said Gerressen.
High-end products, gourmet in-flight dining, La Premiere lounges, and exclusive cabin experiences all reinforce this premium positioning. “We offer one of the best cabins in the region with our new first class, featuring a seat with five windows and just four seats in the entire cabin. It’s a revolution in the industry,” Gerressen added.
He emphasized the cabin crew’s vital role in shaping the passenger experience, highlighting their attentiveness and approachable demeanor.
As part of its sustainability strategy, Air France is adopting a comprehensive approach across its operations.
“Each new generation of aircraft reduces CO₂ emissions by up to 25 percent. Today, 28 percent of our fleet consists of these new aircraft, and our goal is to increase this figure to 80 percent by 2030,” Gerressen said.
The airline is also the world’s leading buyer of sustainable aviation fuel.
Gumuseli said: “We account for nearly 16 percent of global SAF usage, despite representing only 3 percent of total global kerosene consumption.”
Air France is investing in technology to enhance the passenger experience.
“We’ve decided to install high-speed Wi-Fi on board. In the event of a delay, passengers will receive updates about their connecting flights directly on their screens. With data and technology, we can truly personalize the service,” Gumuseli said.
“Our target customers include expatriates living in Saudi Arabia and tourists wishing to travel to Europe, North America, South America or Africa. Businesses are also a key audience, given the strong commercial ties between France and Saudi Arabia. We aim to serve all these segments,” said Gumuseli.
“Religious tourism should not be overlooked. Pilgrims can now combine Umrah with a more tourist-oriented experience,” he added.
Gerressen stressed the importance of the eVisa: “It is crucial. Simplifying the visa process will be essential in convincing more people to visit Saudi Arabia.”
