BEIRUT: As President Bashar Al-Assad seeks to reassert his authority in Idlib, the only remaining province in Syria where his forces have almost no presence, he may be aided there by deep fractures within Al-Qaeda, the militant group that dominates the region.
A recent wave of detentions and a spate of violence within Al-Qaeda have also raised fears of an all-out war between insurgents in the heavily populated province near Turkey as Assad’s forces make their push.
Assad lost control of Idlib nearly three years ago and he has vowed to recapture it, but that is expected to be a bloody and costly fight. The militant haven is heavily fortified and home to thousands of fighters who transferred there from other parts of the country. It is also where tens of thousands of civilians settled after fleeing fighting in Aleppo, Homs, the suburbs of Damascus and elsewhere.
Tensions inside Idlib have been on the rise for months, reflecting a power struggle between hard-line foreign fighters loyal to Al-Qaeda’s leader, Ayman Al-Zawahri, and its more moderate Syrian members.
The tensions worsened in late November after a wave of detentions by an Al-Qaeda-linked group against more extremist, mostly non-Syrian members. Among those detained were two of Al-Qaeda’s most esteemed leaders and founding members of the extremist group’s branch in Syria, who were set free days later after pressure by factions within the group who threatened to withdraw from the battlefield in protest.
The Nov. 27 raids by the Al-Qaeda-linked Hay’at Tahrir al Sham — Arabic for Levant Liberation Committee, also known as HTS — took many by surprise and angered Al-Zawahri, who accused his top man in Syria of betrayal.
The detentions, ordered by HTS leader Abu Mohammed Al-Golani, were the clearest indication yet of the sharp divisions within the international terror network. They also come as Al-Golani appears to be edging closer to Turkey, which is trying, along with Iran and Russia, to bring an end to the country’s civil war, now in its seventh year.
HTS was until recently on the ascendant in Syria, crushing potential opponents in Idlib as its rival, the Daesh group, faced significant setbacks, losing most of the territory it once held in the country.
Those who were detained included Jordanian citizens Sami Oraidi, Al-Qaeda’s former top religious figure in Syria, and the highly secretive former military commander in southern Syria, Ayad Toubasi, also known as Abu Julaybib Al-Urduni, brother-in-law of the late Al-Qaeda in Iraq leader, Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi.
After their detentions, other Al-Qaeda officials, including a prominent cleric, went to ask Al-Golani why their comrades were detained. But the men ended up being taken into custody themselves.
“The campaign of arrests against our brothers and cadres will not stop us from continuing our struggle against the enemies of God and will open for you a door that you will wish you never opened,” a Syria-based Al-Qaeda commander, Abu Humam Al-Shami, who is opposed to HTS, warned earlier this month.
Days after Al-Shami’s warning, intense clashes broke out between HTS and the Jund Al-Malahem faction that split from it in October and is close to the detained Al-Qaeda officials, leaving at least seven people dead.
“There are widespread concerns of a full-blown confrontation between the two sides,” said an opposition activist in northern Syria who lives in areas controlled by HTS. Speaking by telephone, he asked that his name not be made public for fear of reprisals by the militants.
The activist said that dozens of other members and commanders, including one known as Abu Khadija who used to run Al-Qaeda’s notorious Al-Iqab prison, were also detained.
“It is clear that the jihadist movement in Syria is suffering probably the worst moment of internal fighting since the 2013 schism between ISIS and Jabhat Al-Nusra,” said Jennifer Cafarella of the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, using an alternate acronym for the Daesh group. Jabhat Al-Nusra or the Nusra Front was the predecessor of HTS before it changed its name.
Oraidi and Toubasi were released after pressure by two of HTS’s most powerful armed wings, which were on the verge of withdrawing from the fight against Assad’s forces if the two were not released, according to Assem Zeidan of the Turkey-based Jabhat Al-Nusra Violations group that traces Al-Qaeda’s atrocities in Syria.
HTS said in a statement that the detainees, whom it did not identify, have “ruined the foundations” of the organization it said was dedicated to “setting up a Sunni entity that gathers all the powers of the people of the Levant to fight the enemy and represent the people of Syria.” It did not say what their offenses were.
The detentions angered Al-Zawahri, who released an audio recording in which he accused HTS and Al-Golani of “betraying the vow of allegiance,” adding that Al-Golani’s decision to break ties with Al-Qaeda last year had weakened the international terror network.
The move, in which Syria’ Al-Qaeda branch, known at the time as the Nusra Front, cut all ties with the international terror network, was seen by many as an attempt to improve its image. Months later, it formed and led a coalition consisting of several militant groups that became known as HTS, and crushed most rival groups in areas it controlled.
Ahmad Hamade, a Syrian army colonel who defected early in the conflict, said that HTS is more tolerated in northern Syria, where Al-Qaeda’s more extremist factions are usually not welcomed. In fact, many HTS fighters were members of the Free Syrian Army, the mainstream rebels fighting to topple Assad, he said.
Cafarella said that what happened over the past year with Al-Qaeda in Syria was that Al-Golani, “a forward-leaning, visionary subordinate, told his skeptical boss (al-Zawahri) to just trust him and let him implement his vision for the good of the organization.”
“The subordinate failed to generate the promised outcome in acceptable time, however. The skeptical boss therefore reclaimed control,” said Cafarella who closely follows extremist groups in the Middle East.
For months, Al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria has been witnessing rivalry between its mostly Syrian, relatively moderate members and the foreign fighters who remain loyal to Al-Zawahri. The tension became more apparent after Turkey started sending troops into areas held by HTS in northern Syria in October, with some HTS members supporting Ankara’s incursion and foreign fighters calling against it.
Asad Kanjo, an opposition activist from Idlib who currently lives in Britain, said that the divisions within Al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria are the result of Al-Golani trying to market himself as a Syrian leader who has no links to the international terror network.
“This is a purely Turkish move. Turkey wants the Syrian branch (HTS) to cut all links with the international organization,” Kanjo said, paving the way for Al-Golani to join the political process.
Hassan Hassan of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy wrote recently that HTS seeks to establish ties with countries like Turkey in an attempt to become part of the solution.
“This will further push away hard-line jihadis and Al-Qaeda loyalists who have to make a decision about their fate in a country that is increasingly divided into spheres of influence of foreign countries,” he wrote.
Al-Qaeda divisions may aid Assad as he eyes Syria’s Idlib
Al-Qaeda divisions may aid Assad as he eyes Syria’s Idlib
Frankly Speaking: Will President Trump be able to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine?
- Middle East expert Norman Roule says Trump team members will be no different from Biden officials despite their pro-Israel rhetoric
- Lauds clear position of Kingdom’s foreign minister on two-state solution, says Lebanon war has a simple solution with a difficult approach
DUBAI: After voting for Donald Trump in anger at the Biden administration’s perceived inaction on the Gaza war, many Arab Americans are now voicing concern as the victorious Republican candidate prepares to return to the White House with top team nominees vocal in their support for Israel.
Former senior US intelligence officer Norman Roule, however, says the incoming Trump administration’s policy in this regard will be largely similar to that of President Joe Biden’s.
“It is certainly true that many of the Trump senior designees are openly pro-Israel, but their rhetoric as to what they would do to support Israel is no different than the Biden administration itself,” he said on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking.”
He believes one positive thing to look forward to is that Trump would avoid embroiling the US, Israel, or the region in an endless conflict in the Gaza Strip.
“If there is a difference between the Biden approach and the Trump approach,” he said, “the Trump approach might be more of, to the Israeli government: Do what you feel is necessary, but do it efficiently, humanely, and quickly, we’re not looking to support Israel for an endless war there itself.”
Roule stressed that America must end the war and facilitate aid access for the Palestinians in Gaza, who have suffered for over a year from a deepening humanitarian crisis, while at the same time ensuring Israel’s security from Hamas militants.
“First, we must provide humanitarian relief to the Palestinian people who have suffered tremendously, largely because of Hamas’ use of this population as human sacrifice, but we must bring in international aid and end the conflict,” he said.
“But at the same time, we must end the role of Hamas in threatening Israel. It’s not unfair that Israel seeks its security to prevent another repetition of Oct. 7.”
On that fateful day in 2023, Hamas-led Palestinian militants carried out a surprise attack on southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people and taking 240 others hostage. Israel retaliated by launching a widespread bombing campaign on Gaza, killing at least 44,000 Palestinians within 14 months, according to the local health authority.
Saudi Arabia has consistently condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza, and Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan has ruled out normalizing relations with Israel until a Palestinian state is established.
Roule lauded the Saudi leadership’s consistency and clear stance on the Palestine issue.
“The Saudi foreign minister’s position has been consistent, it’s been clear, and it’s been directed to achieve what the entire Arab world seeks — a two-state solution that is fair to the Palestinian people, that allows security for Israel, and does not provide undue diplomatic recognition or other inducements to Israel before that diplomatic solution of the two-state relationship comes about,” he said.
“So, I’m a big fan of Prince Faisal bin Farhan. His comments have been appropriate, and the comments of the Saudi leadership have also been quite clear,” he told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.”
Roule spent 34 years with the CIA covering the Middle East. For nine of those years, he was the national intelligence manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
Drawing on his background, he expressed skepticism about whether all parties would cooperate in reaching a two-state solution. “If that’s going to be difficult with the Israelis, you just have to imagine yourself right now: Is the president of the Palestinian Authority capable politically of bringing the Palestinians to a two-state solution? Will Hamas tolerate that?” he said.
“And, indeed, the question that we all should ask ourselves is, if two-state discussions began today, what would Hamas, the Palestine Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Iran and the Houthis say about that? Would they support those talks? Would they try to upend those talks?”
According to Roule, the “great unanswered question” is what the international community is doing to ensure that, if a two-state diplomatic approach is reached, it will be protected from “the malign actions of Iran and its proxies.”
Asked if parts of the much-talked-about Saudi-US deal could still move forward despite the Kingdom’s stance on not normalizing relations with Israel without the two-state solution being achieved, he said the two countries “have a separate relationship that needs to progress at the same time.
“And it’s been doing quite well in recent months,” he said. “Both the Biden administration in its remaining time and the (incoming) Trump administration will seek to implement the parts of the deal that are not related to Israel.”
Despite the temporary pause in a comprehensive strategic agreement owing to the Gaza conflict, he sees collaboration continuing in areas like AI, green energy and regional stability.
“We have a massive technological cooperation that’s ongoing, particularly in artificial intelligence,” Roule said. “The issue of data centers is coming to the forefront of the relationship, but also, as the Biden administration was working on its strategic agreement with the Saudi government, the sense in Washington is the movement of that deal was quite positive and was only upended by the Gaza conflict.”
Roule expects to see continued progress on elements of that deal, which “provides Saudi Arabia and the US with what they need to maintain and build what is a very positive and critical relationship for the US and for the region.”
Moving on to Lebanon, Roule said that to bring peace to the war-torn country, “there’s a simple solution with a difficult approach to get there.
“We need first to remove Lebanese Hezbollah north of the Litani (River) to empower the Lebanese armed forces to come south of the Litani and do their job — and be able to do so without fear of Lebanese Hezbollah,” he said.
Nevertheless, he stressed that the first priority is to “end the conflict” and “end the suffering of the Lebanese people, end the suffering of the Israeli people.”
Pointing to the fact that “60,000 Israelis have left their home and prior to the Lebanese recent conflict, 100,000 Lebanese were not going into their homes, and now we have a million displaced Lebanese,” Roule said: “We’ve got to make that our first priority.”
Achieving peace in Lebanon, according to Roule, hinges on one key factor: “The Lebanese people must be willing to stand up against Lebanese Hezbollah.”
Elaborating on the point, he said: “This isn’t something that we’re going to be able to do. And I’ll close by saying that one bit of diplomatic guidance that in the intelligence community we often give to diplomats is: We can’t want a solution more than the people on the ground.
“The Lebanese people must appoint a president, empower their armed forces, push back on Lebanese Hezbollah.”
He is sure that once the Lebanese decide on the political solution, the US “will assist them and support them and provide them with billions of dollars of aid.
“But, at a certain point, the political solution must be their own.”
Asked about the outlook for the war in Lebanon, especially after Israeli official Michael Freund told the Jerusalem Post that southern Lebanon is actually “northern Israel,” Roule said “harsh rhetoric” is “coming from all sides — Lebanese Hezbollah, elements of the Israeli government, and Palestinians themselves — on all of these issues.”
President-elect Trump pledged throughout his campaign to quickly end the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Roule believes that Trump, who opposes “endless wars,” will pursue this goal by surrounding himself with people who share his worldview.
“President Trump does see himself as a deal maker and he assigns to key positions around him individuals with the same worldview,” he said.
“So, you’re going to get individuals who are generally sympathetic toward Israel, confident of the strong US relationship with the Gulf Cooperation Council states, willing to deter Iran, willing to do what it takes to keep the US out of regional conflicts, but willing also to push back on adversaries.”
While Trump does not want to see the US in a war in the Middle East or in Europe any more than President Biden, the two administrations’ approach to these issues in significantly different ways, according to Roule.
“President Trump’s goal appears to be how do we bring some sort of agreement together that stops the killing and restores the diplomatic channels so that we can bring about peace in Europe,” he said.
He added that Trump’s goal in regard to Iran is “probably” similar.
“Iran needs to reduce its nuclear program, cease its regional adventurism, and act like a normal nation,” Roule said. “If Iran is willing to do this, as we’ve seen in the previous Trump administration, they will offer engagement.
“But if not, in either of these cases, what you’re going to see is likely the Trump administration not unwilling to provide Ukraine with more weapons, because Russia won’t cooperate — and also to conduct significant pressure against Iran.”
When asked whether Ukrainians and Europeans fear that Trump’s policies might prioritize Russia in a deal and pressure Kyiv, the EU, and NATO to accept it — much like the withdrawal from Afghanistan — Roule responded that the US approach would ultimately depend on whether the issue is deemed existential to its interests.
“The Trump administration’s position is going to be: If this is an existential issue for Europe, then it must act accordingly. And there are some countries in Europe which still will not meet their NATO obligations,” he said.
“The Trump administration’s position is going to be, not unreasonably, if this is existential for us and we must participate accordingly, why isn’t it existential for you?”
Turning to Ukraine, Roule said this has been “a costly, bloody war” within the country. “They’ve lost many of their people to Russian aggression. This is a criminal invasion of another country,” he said.
“That said, if you’re interested in stopping the violence, at some point all wars come to a diplomatic solution. They may not be attractive, but that solution is needed.”
Israel names Netanyahu ally as US ambassador
- A former adviser to Netanyahu, Leiter, 65, is originally from the United States and currently lives in a settlement in the occupied West Bank
JERUSALEM: The Israeli government said Sunday it had approved the nomination of Yechiel Leiter, an ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as the country’s ambassador to the United States.
The announcement comes after US President-elect Donald Trump named hard-line conservative Mike Huckabee as his choice for US ambassador to Israel under his incoming administration.
“The government has unanimously approved the appointment of Dr. Yechiel Leiter as ambassador to the United States,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.
A former adviser to Netanyahu, Leiter, 65, is originally from the United States and currently lives in a settlement in the occupied West Bank.
Close to the US Republican Party, Leiter used to be one of the leaders of the Yesha Council, an umbrella group representing Israeli settlers in the West Bank in the 1990s.
He is also a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party and currently works as a strategic adviser to Israeli think tanks.
His son, Moshe Leiter, was killed in combat in November 2023 in the Gaza Strip, where war erupted between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas after its attack on southern Israel in October last year.
Yechiel Leiter will take on the ambassador role after Trump’s inauguration next year, succeeding Mike Herzog, President Isaac Herzog’s brother, who was appointed in 2021.
Leiter is a fierce critic of US President Joe Biden, slamming “American pressure” during the war in Gaza in an interview with private Israeli channel Tov in January.
Israel welcomed Huckabee’s nomination this month, as he is a stalwart supporter of the country’s government.
In 2017, he was present in Maale Adumim for the expansion of one of Israel’s largest settlements in the West Bank.
Israel’s PM condemns settler violence on soldiers in West Bank
- The International Criminal Court stunned Israel on Thursday by issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the 13-month-old Gaza conflict
JERUSALEM: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned on Sunday Jewish settlers who attacked senior Israeli military officers including Maj. Gen. Avi Bluth, the head of the army’s Central Command in the occupied West Bank.
The Israeli army said that a group of settlers trailed Bluth and other officers in the West Bank city of Hebron on Friday, blocked their exit and hurled abuse at them. It added that five rioters had been arrested.
“All violence directed against Israeli military officers and soldiers must be dealt with to the fullest extent of the law,” the prime minister’s office said in a statement.
Some of the crowd yelled “traitor” at Bluth, who had visited Hebron to attend an annual religious event in the city.
BACKGROUND
On Saturday, dozens of settlers hurled stones at Israeli troops near the West Bank settlement of Itamar, police said.
On Saturday, dozens of settlers, some of them masked, hurled stones at Israeli troops and border police near the West Bank settlement of Itamar, police said.
There has been a general surge in violence across the West Bank since the Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas militants on southern Israel.
Palestinians have been repeatedly targeted by settlers, who want Israel to annex the West Bank. The Israeli military is meant to protect the local Palestinians, but Bluth acknowledged in August that the army had failed to safeguard civilians when settlers went on the rampage in one town. Palestinians say they are often left to the mercy of the settlers, with soldiers doing little or nothing to rein them in.
Some settler youth groups reject the jurisdiction of the Israeli military in areas that they see as under their control and have attacked Israeli forces.
Settler leaders have said violence has no place in their movement and have called for offenders to be prosecuted.
Most countries deem Jewish settlements built on land Israel captured in a 1967 war to be illegal. Israel disputes this and cites historical and biblical ties to the land. Palestinians want the West Bank as part of a future independent state.
Separately, analysts and officials have said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing legal perils at home and abroad that point to a turbulent future for the Israeli leader and could influence the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
The International Criminal Court stunned Israel on Thursday by issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the 13-month-old Gaza conflict.
The bombshell came less than two weeks before Netanyahu is due to testify in a corruption trial that has dogged him for years and could end his political career if he is found guilty. He has denied any wrongdoing.
While the domestic bribery trial has polarized public opinion, the prime minister has received widespread support from
across the political spectrum following the ICC move, giving him a boost in troubled times.
Saudi companies exhibiting at ArabPlast in Dubai to showcase petrochemical innovations
- ArabPlast will feature a diverse range of products, technologies and solutions that shape the future of plastics and petrochemicals in the region
LONDON: Saudi petrochemical firms will showcase their products and innovative solutions at the 17th ArabPlast, hosted by the Dubai World Trade Center, the Emirates News Agency — WAM —reported.
ArabPlast, an international trade show that takes place from Jan. 7-9, is an important event in the calendar of companies working in the plastics, recycling, petrochemicals, packaging and rubber industries.
In 2025, ArabPlast will host 12 national pavilions and 750 exhibitors from a total of 35 countries, including companies from Saudi Arabia, Austria, China, Egypt, Germany, Italy, India, Switzerland, Jordan, UAE and the rest of the GCC countries.
They will showcase “a diverse range of products, technologies and solutions that shape the future of plastics, petrochemicals and rubber sectors in the region,” WAM reported.
Nidal Mohammed Kadar, director of ArabPlast, said that the event would also feature the “latest developments in robotics and artificial intelligence technologies in the field of recycling,” which will contribute to sustainability.
Sadiq Al-Lawati, executive director of Polymers Marketing at OQ Oman, said that ArabPlast will focus on “sustainable, environmentally friendly solutions” as the global demand for plastic increases in industrial sectors, such as construction, food and beverage, aviation, automotive, health care and sports.
Alongside the exhibitions, hundreds of professionals and decision-makers will discuss the latest solutions and challenges that the plastic and petrochemical industries are facing in the Arab region.
Two Israeli strikes hit south Beirut: Lebanon state media
- “Israeli warplanes launched two violent strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs in the Kafaat area,” official National News Agency said
- The raids “caused massive destruction over a large geographical area” of the Kafaat district, NNA said
BEIRUT: Lebanese state media reported two Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs on Sunday, about an hour after the Israeli military posted evacuation calls online for parts of the Hezbollah bastion.
“Israeli warplanes launched two violent strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs in the Kafaat area,” the official National News Agency said.
The southern Beirut area has been repeatedly struck since September 23 when Israel intensified its air campaign also targeting Hezbollah bastions in Lebanon’s east and south. It later sent in ground troops to southern Lebanon.
AFPTV footage showed grey smoke billowing over south Beirut.
The raids “caused massive destruction over a large geographical area” of the Kafaat district, NNA said.
Earlier Sunday, Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee warned on social media platform X that the military would strike “Hezbollah facilities and interests” in the Hadath and Burj Al-Barajneh districts, also sharing maps of the areas to be evacuated.
Full-on war erupted following nearly a year of limited exchanges of fire initiated by Iran-backed Hezbollah in support of its ally Hamas, after the Palestinian group’s October 7, 2023 attack sparked the Gaza war.
