Don’t panic! Oil price outlook improves as US shale faces headwinds in 2018

Workers hired by US oil and gas company Apache Corp. drill a horizontal well in the Wolfcamp Shale in west Texas Permian Basin near the town of Mertzon. The US shale sector may not proveas much of a threat to Gulf oil producers as previously feared according to energy analysts. (Reuters)
Updated 26 December 2017
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Don’t panic! Oil price outlook improves as US shale faces headwinds in 2018

LONDON: Arab News has been told that 2018 is unlikely to see a massive ramp-up in US shale production that could potentially wreck attempts by Russia, Saudi Arabia and other producers to stabilize oil prices and shrink surplus inventories.
Speaking from Denver, Colorado, senior Wood Mackenzie energy analyst Ryan Duman said there were “headwinds” for the US shale industry which would hold back production next year, reducing the danger that the oil price would head south again.
Duman said: “US shale operators who don’t have rigs or crews under contract are going to have to pay dearly because the oil services industry is overstretched right now.”
That’s because it pared back considerably during the slump — building it up again is going to take time, he said.
There were plenty of wells, but the big question was how quickly can they come on line.
“One of the things we are looking for in 2018 is the rate of completions, whether they start to catch up to the rate of drilling. And then, how fast can the oil get to market.”
He added: “What we need to see is a massive rehiring to make up for the labor that was let go during the bad times, and operators need more equipment, such as pressure pumping and other assets, in order to push forward with hydraulic fracturing — in other words, the completion stage — which comes after the rigs have dug the wells.”
There were also infrastructure challenges in terms of transporting shale oil to refiners, some of which don’t process that type of crude.
Asked if he thought the US could overtake Saudi Arabia to become the world’s second-largest producer after Russia, Duman thought this was years away, “although I am not saying it won’t happen.”
The way he saw it, the obstacles for US shale currently were the following: Not having ample takeaway capacity — that is, pipelines and other equipment, essential to get crude to market; and a dearth of workers, both skilled and unskilled who were laid off three years ago.
Duman said: “We have seen rigs added back quickly this year, but operators can’t get the crude to customers fast enough — which has implications for costs.”
The outlook for 2019 was a different matter, as long as the oil price stayed between $60 and $65 — because at those prices the shale operators were in the money, he said.
“I think 2018 could be about hiring and rebuilding the sector that has been neglected in recent years. After that, a very strong production year in 2019.
One important factor was that technological improvements and efficiencies would gradually make the shale industry more profitable.
Operators today are able to drill and complete wells much faster than before thanks to developments in predictive analytics or big data — all of which propel optimization.
In the Permian Basin (the region of Texas and New Mexico at the center of the shale revolution), Goldman Sachs estimates that wells have become 50 percent more productive over the past two years.
And shale companies have locked in higher oil prices when they occur by turning to hedging contracts. More and more oil companies are using hedges to give them certainty.
“But the other part of it is the sheer learning curve … shale is still in its infancy if you think about how young the industry is compared with Big Oil,” said Duman.
But will huge quantities of US shale be cascading into the market next year?
Duman doesn’t think so — “We have growth rates almost equivalent for 2017 and 2018 at about 850,000-900,000 bpd.”
His overall analysis was echoed by BP CEO Bob Dudley who told the Financial Times that traditional producers such as Saudi Arabia would continue to exert more influence over crude prices.
Dudley said he was less worried these days about the extent to which US shale resources could hold down prices as more was learned about their geology. 
He told the FT: “There are cracks appearing in the model of the Permian being one single, perfect oilfield.”
He warned of emerging technical challenges, and called into question the ability of shale companies to rival conventional producers over the long term. 
Dudley was outspoken on another matter. While acknowledging that oil faced long-term competition from electric vehicles, he claimed the technology had been “hyped” and that environmental problems surrounding the mining and disposal of materials used in lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles had been underestimated.
On the issue of shale, however, the International Energy Agency (IEA) sees things differently to Wood Mackenzie, and — as we’ll see — OPEC as well.
In a report this month, IEA said the recovery in oil prices this year to about $63 per barrel had spurred growth in US tight oil output (which includes crude, condensates and natural gas liquids, which the IEA said would cause global supplies to exceed demand in the first half of 2018.
It added US oil output until 2025 will be the strongest seen by any country in the history of crude markets, making it the “undisputed” leader among global producers. “Technological advances that have enabled production from US shale oilfields to thrive will lead to growth of 8 million barrels a day between 2010 and 2025, surpassing expansion rates enjoyed by any other nation,” said IEA executive director, Fatih Birol.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Birol said the US would become the undisputed global oil and gas leader for decades to come and is expected to account for 80 percent of the increase in global supply over the same period.
US tight oil production will rise to 13 million bpd by 2025, out of total US output of 16.9 million bpd.
“The growth in production is unprecedented, exceeding all historical records, even Saudi Arabia after production from the mega Ghawar field or Soviet gas production from the super Siberian fields,” Birol said.
Moreover, if oil did settle at $60, we should expect a ramp up in US production which would stop inventories coming down, according to Birol. OPEC’s views are different still. At a recent forum in London, secretary general Mohammed Barkindo said the global oil market was tightening at an “accelerating pace,” and he cited a sharp reduction in worldwide inventories as evidence that last year’s agreement by producers to cut supply was having an effect.
He added: “OPEC stocks in September were about 160 million barrels above the five-year average, down from 340 million in January. There has been a massive drainage of oil tanks across all regions, a balanced oil market was fully in sight,” said Barkindo.
OPEC and other producers want to get stocks down to the five year average in order to remove the glut built up when the price was above $100.
Perhaps, the only thing one can say with any degree of certainty about the oil industry is that there is widespread disagreement about almost everything.
It was always thus.


Saudi Arabia to welcome Middle East’s first TRIBE hotel in King Salman Park

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Saudi Arabia to welcome Middle East’s first TRIBE hotel in King Salman Park

RIYADH: French hospitality group Accor and Naif Alrajhi Investment have signed an agreement to bring the Middle East’s first TRIBE hotel to Saudi Arabia. 

The project, featuring a 250-key property, will be situated within Riyadh’s King Salman Park and will include the debut of TRIBE Living, a new residential community concept. 

The collaboration builds on the partnership between the two entities, which successfully launched Fairmont Ramla Serviced Residences last year, according to a press release. 

This initiative aligns with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which aims to diversify the economy and boost the tourism sector, targeting 150 million annual visitors by 2030. 

“The introduction of TRIBE and TRIBE Living to Saudi Arabia showcases our focus on design-led, lifestyle experiences that meet the growing demand for modern, accessible hotel offerings in Riyadh,” said Duncan O’Rourke, Accor’s CEO for premium, midscale and economy brands for Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific. 

The TRIBE Riyadh King Salman Park hotel will also feature two restaurants, meeting facilities, a banquet hall, a gym, and a swimming pool. 

TRIBE Living will introduce 150 apartments ranging from studios to three-bedroom units, offering residents access to the hotel’s dining and recreational amenities, the release added. 

Since its launch in 2017, the TRIBE brand has grown to 18 hotels with 2,708 rooms globally. 

Riyadh is emerging as a global hub for business and leisure, fueled by growing demand for premium accommodations. Accor aims to capitalize on this trend with 1,683 operational keys in the city and 2,740 in the pipeline. 

The announcement follows the King Salman Park Foundation’s plan to develop its first real estate investment plot in collaboration with Naif Alrajhi Investment. 

“We are delighted to be working with Accor once again, a trusted partner, to introduce new and iconic brands to the local market for the first time. This partnership is a significant step forward in our ongoing commitment to delivering world-class destinations that cater to both local and international audiences,” Naif Saleh Al-Rajhi, chairman and CEO of Naif Alrajhi Investment. 

The project is part of King Salman Park’s Package 1, a 290,000-sq.-meter mixed-use development featuring residential, commercial, retail, and recreational spaces. The district is strategically located near the park’s key attractions, such as the Royal Arts Complex and Visitors Pavilion. 

Accor is planning substantial growth in the Kingdom, with 45 new establishments and 9,800 keys expected by 2030, O’Rourke told Arab News in May. 

Saudi Arabia’s hospitality sector has gained momentum, driven by large-scale events such as Riyadh Season and AlUla Season. 

A report by JLL released earlier this month highlighted that urban infrastructure development is creating new opportunities in the Kingdom, driven by the government’s push for economic diversification and increased tourism.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green, reaches 11,949 points

Updated 23 min 53 sec ago
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green, reaches 11,949 points

  • MSCI Tadawul Index increased by 15.52 points, or 1.05%, to close at 1,500.07
  • Parallel market Nomu lost 285.18 points, or 0.91%, to close at 30,953.11 points

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index increased by 0.84 percent or 99.42 points to reach 11,948.79 points on Monday. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR4.9 billion ($1.3 billion), as 111 of the listed stocks advanced, while 117 retreated. 

The MSCI Tadawul Index also increased by 15.52 points, or 1.05 percent, to close at 1,500.07. 

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu dropped, losing 285.18 points, or 0.91 percent, to close at 30,953.11 points. This comes as 32 of the listed stocks advanced while 51 retreated. 

The main index’s top performer, Zamil Industrial Investment Co., saw a 4.31 percent increase in its share price to close at SR33.90. 

Other top performers included Saudi Reinsurance Co., which saw a 4.20 percent increase to reach SR47.15, while the Mediterranean and Gulf Insurance and Reinsurance Co.’s share price rose by 4.16 percent to SR23.52. 

Red Sea International Co. also recorded a positive trajectory, with share prices rising 3.89 percent to reach SR56.10. 

Kingdom Holding Co. also witnessed positive gains, with 3.75 percent reaching SR9.13. 

National Co. for Learning and Education was TASI’s worst performer, with the firm’s share price dropping by 3.94 percent to SR204.60. 

Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Co. followed with a 3.84 percent drop to SR120.20. Riyadh Cement Co. also saw a notable drop of 3.61 percent to settle at SR32.05. 

Walaa Cooperative Insurance Co. and MBC Group Co. were among the top five poorest performers, with shares declining by 3.52 percent to settle at SR17.56 and by 3.17 percent to sit at SR54.90, respectively. 

On the announcement’s front, Almujtama Alraida Medical Co. disclosed that Khabeer Althanyia Investment Co. — a major shareholder — has announced its intention to distribute and deposit its 630,673 shares in Almujtama Alraida, representing 6.64 percent of the company’s capital, into the investment portfolios of its current partners. 

The move, according to a filing on Tadawul, will result in changes to the list of the company’s major shareholders. 

Almujtama Alraida Medical Co.’s share price dropped 2.91 percent on Monday to settle at SR30.05. 

Najran Cement Co. announced that its shareholders approved the transfer of SR163.62 million from its statutory reserve, as reported in its financial statements for the year ending Dec. 31, 2023, to its retained earnings balance of SR138.15 million. 

The decision was made during the company’s extraordinary general meeting held on Dec. 22, according to a statement on Tadawul. 

Shareholders also approved the repurchase of up to 17 million shares to be held as treasury shares, citing the board’s view that the company’s stock is trading below its fair value. 

The share buyback will be financed through the firm’s resources, including cash balances or credit facilities, with the board authorized to complete the process within 12 months of the meeting date. 

The repurchased shares can be retained for a maximum of 10 years, after which the company will comply with applicable laws and regulations, the statement said. 

Najran Cement Co.’s share price saw a 1.22 percent dip on Monday to close at SR8.92.


Saudi Arabia inaugurates Yanbu Grain Terminal to boost food security, trade

Updated 23 December 2024
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Saudi Arabia inaugurates Yanbu Grain Terminal to boost food security, trade

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has inaugurated the Yanbu Grain Handling Terminal, underscoring the Kingdom’s efforts to strengthen public-private partnerships, enhance agricultural trade, and bolster food security across the region.

The event was attended by Abdulrahman Al-Fadli, minister of environment, water and agriculture, and by various government and private sector officials, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

The Yanbu Grain Handling Terminal will serve both public and private sector importers, and boasts a storage capacity of 156,000 tonnes, including 12 silos with a combined capacity of 96,000 tonnes.

Food security has risen up the agenda in recent years, as countries in the Gulf contend with the impacts of climate change, the consequences of trade-disrupting conflicts such as the Ukraine-Russia war, and interruptions to supply routes through the Red Sea.

In September 2022, in response to these challenges, the Kingdom collaborated with regional partners to launch a food security action plan with an initial funding of $10 billion.

The Yanbu Grain Handling Terminal will be operated by the National Grains Co., a joint venture between the national shipping carrier Bahri and the Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Co.

It features a 650-meter conveyor belt and a discharge rate of 800 tonnes per hour directly from ships, with an annual handling capacity exceeding 3 million tonnes of grain.

According to Bahr’s statement to the Saudi Stock Exchange, the inauguration delay was caused by the inclusion of additional requirements to enhance future operational efficiency, along with the construction of extra infrastructure to accommodate potential future expansions.

The company said that because of this the total project cost rose by 7 percent from the initially allocated SR412.5 million ($109.7 million), though the increase is not deemed significant.

The Yanbu Grain Handling Terminal aims to become a world-class logistics hub, connecting three continents and supporting the Kingdom’s vision for a resilient and efficient agricultural supply chain.

Established in 2020 as a strategic partnership between SALIC and Bahri, the National Grain Co. aims to fulfill the Kingdom’s future feed grain requirements while enhancing its global competitiveness.

It is committed to advancing grain trade, handling, and storage through the Yanbu terminal, strengthening supply chains and ensuring price stability across Saudi Arabia.

SALIC, a Public Investment Fund-owned company, was formed in 2011 to secure food supply for Saudi Arabia through mass production and investment.

When the project was announced in 2020, Al-Fadli, who is also the chairman of SALIC’s board of directors, said: “The project aims to enhance the velocity of the main grain influx to Saudi Arabia and is considered the first regional center for grains in the commercial port of Yanbu.”

 

He added that SALIC relies on the geographical location of the Kingdom and the port infrastructure to enhance food distribution in the region by linking the Kingdom to global grain sources, especially countries where SALIC is investing.

 

A grain delivery service to customers within the Kingdom has been introduced as part of the project, ensuring greater proximity to clients, enhanced customer experience, and improved profitability margins.


UAE’s ADNOC boosts drilling capabilities with 2 new jack-up rigs

Updated 23 December 2024
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UAE’s ADNOC boosts drilling capabilities with 2 new jack-up rigs

  • ADNOC Drilling will expand its fleet to 142 platforms
  • UAE possesses the sixth-largest crude oil reserves globally

JEDDAH: The Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. has received two new jack-up rigs, reinforcing its position as one of the largest drillship fleet owners globally.

ADNOC Drilling will launch the new rigs by the first quarter of next year, expanding its fleet to 142 platforms. This marks a strong year for the company, showcasing its performance and strategy, according to UAE state news agency WAM.

For over 50 years, ADNOC Drilling has been the exclusive provider of drilling and rig-related services to ADNOC Group under agreed contractual terms, supporting the firm’s upstream operations in exploring and developing oil and gas resources in the UAE.

With most of the Gulf country’s crude oil and gas reserves located in Abu Dhabi, ADNOC oversees the majority of nationwide exploration, appraisal, development, and production activities, which are managed by ADNOC, either independently or in partnership with third parties.

In its analysis of the company’s performance, JPMorgan, a global financial services firm, said: “Since its initial public offering, ADNOC Drilling has proven to be a high-quality, defensive business, consistently meeting and surpassing guidance and expectations. The exceptional performance also reflects positive progress with ADNOC Drilling’s two joint ventures.”

The UAE possesses the sixth-largest crude oil reserves globally, with approximately 107 billion stock tank barrels of proven oil reserves. Since its inception in 1972, ADNOC Drilling has played a crucial role in enabling ADNOC to unlock the country’s oil and gas resources efficiently and reliably, contributing to the nation’s energy sector.

This year, Enersol, a joint venture between Alpha Dhabi Holding and ADNOC Drilling, acquired four oilfield services technology companies, while Turnwell, another business partnership between ADNOC, SLB, and Patterson-UTI, set a record for initial well delivery time, accelerating the development of the UAE’s unconventional energy reserves.

Following its second upward guidance revision this year alongside its third-quarter results, ADNOC Drilling is on track to deliver its best-ever performance in Q4. ADNOC Drilling anticipates at least mid-single-digit expansion as it scales operations, according to WAM.

ADNOC forecasts a rise in drilling activity in the coming years, driven by its commitment to increasing crude oil production capacity by 25 percent, reaching five million barrels per day by 2027.

As the company looks to expand beyond the UAE and explore opportunities in the region, it foresees a growing need to expand its rig fleet to support its strategic growth plans.

The energy giant believes that expanding its rig fleet will enhance its current capabilities in rig hire, drilling, completion services, and associated operations and enable the company to offer unconventional drilling and biogenic well services. This expansion is expected to contribute to increased revenue and profitability.


Terminal 4 at Cairo International Airport to boost Egypt’s aviation and tourism sectors

Updated 33 min 19 sec ago
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Terminal 4 at Cairo International Airport to boost Egypt’s aviation and tourism sectors

  • Project is expected to bolster the country’s tourism goals and improve traveler experiences
  • Egypt’s aviation sector also improved 36 spots to 27th in the 2024 edition of the Air Transport Infrastructure Index

RIYADH: Egypt is advancing its aviation sector with the ongoing development of Terminal 4 at Cairo International Airport, set to accommodate 30 million passengers annually.

According to a statement from the Cabinet, the “New Republic Air Gateway” project is expected to bolster the country’s tourism goals, improve traveler experiences, and position Egypt as an international aviation hub.

This year, the government announced plans to involve the private sector in airport management, including a global tender for Cairo International.

Egypt’s aviation sector also improved 36 spots to 27th in the 2024 edition of the Air Transport Infrastructure Index, aligning with Vision 2030’s focus on sustainable development, innovation, and global competitiveness.

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, during a meeting at the New Administrative Capital, reviewed progress on the project alongside Minister of Civil Aviation Sameh El-Hefny. The session focused on the terminal’s specifications, implementation strategy, and potential to reshape the African nation’s aviation and tourism landscapes.

“Airport development works come within the framework of presidential directives to upgrade the Egyptian airport system, raise its capacity and improve the level of services provided to passengers,” he said.

At the meeting, Madbouly emphasized the importance of creating world-class facilities to accommodate rising traveler numbers. 

El-Hefny outlined the project’s phased execution, with completion expected within four to five years. He also revealed that negotiations are underway with international firms specializing in airport construction and management to ensure world-class execution. 

The minister emphasized the cutting-edge features of the new terminal, including its ability to initially handle 30 million passengers annually, with expansion potential to 40 million. 

In September 2023, Cairo Airport Co. partnered with Pangiam, a trade and travel technology company, and signed two agreements to develop the new terminal. These deals, focused on enhancing the airport’s operations with advanced technology, include a feasibility study to incorporate emerging technologies and deliver a seamless travel experience.

The terminal will feature a state-of-the-art runway equipped with advanced navigation and lighting technologies that meet international standards. 

Once operational, Terminal 4 is expected to elevate Cairo International Airport’s global status, making it a hub for regional and international travel.