NEW DELHI: India is set to overtake the United Kingdom and France to become the world’s fifth largest economy next year, a report said Tuesday.
Currently ranked seventh, India will move up to fifth place in 2018 and vault to third spot by 2032, the Center for Economics and Business Research, a London-based consultancy, said in its annual rankings.
The Indian economy hit a three-year low in the first quarter of the current financial year, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s snap decision in November 2016 to scrap high-value banknotes and following a tax overhaul.
Growth slumped to 5.7 percent for the three months ending June but recovered slightly to 6.3 percent for the quarter ending September.
“Despite temporary setbacks... India’s economy has still caught up with that of France and the UK and in 2018 will have overtaken them both to become the world’s fifth largest economy in dollar terms,” said CEBR deputy chairman Douglas McWilliams.
Cheap energy and a digital revolution will drive economic growth globally, the report said. The world’s growth will be dominated by Asian economies, including India, China and Japan.
The United States, the world’s largest economy, will be overtaken by China in 2030, the report forecast, adding India would take that spot “at some time in the second half of this century.”
India to become fifth largest economy in 2018
India to become fifth largest economy in 2018
Japan’s Saudi crude oil imports reach 41.8% of October total
TOKYO: Japan’s imports of Saudi oil in October 2024 amounted to 27.8 million barrels, a significant 41.8 percent of the total, according to the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s Agency of Natural Resources and Energy.
During October, Japan imported 66.53 million barrels, of which the Arab share was 97.8 percent or 65.06 million barrels.
The strategic importance of Arab countries in Japan’s energy security is highlighted by their significant contribution to Japan’s oil imports. The main contribution was from four Arab countries — the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar — as well as the neutral zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
The UAE emerged as the largest supplier, providing 31.8 million barrels, which accounted for 47.8 percent of the total imports. Qatar and Kuwait followed, contributing 2.7 million barrels (4.1 percent) and 2.04 million barrels (3.1 percent), respectively. The neutral zone, a smaller supplier, provided 1.1 percent of Japan’s total imports.
Japan’s geopolitical decisions continue to shape its oil imports. With a ban on oil imports from Iran and Russia, the rest of its oil imports in October were sourced from Central and South America (0.9 percent), Southeast Asia (0.8 percent), Oceania (0.3 percent), and the US (0.2 percent).
Startup Wrap – Early-stage funding continues to capture interest
CAIRO: Early-stage startups across the Middle East and North Africa region secure investments to drive innovation in sectors such as logistics, fintech, and climate tech.
Saudi-based Nama Ventures co-led Egypt’s Nowlun $1.7 million seed funding round along with venture capital firm A15.
The round also saw participation from Sanabil 500 Global and other angel investors.
Founded in 2021 by Moataz Khamis, Ahmed Emara, and Mahmoud Khaled, Nowlun’s platform provides businesses with access to real-time pricing across major shipping lines, enabling them to make faster and more informed decisions.
The company plans to utilize the raised capital for expansion and the development of its technology.
Mohammed Al-Zubi, founder of Nama Ventures, and Bassem Raafat, principal at A15, lauded the company’s mission and strategy.
Naif Al Rajhi acquires stake in Jordan’s Mawdoo3
Saudi investment firm Naif Al Rajhi Investment has acquired a strategic stake in Jordan-based artificial intelligence Arabic content platform Mawdoo3 for an undisclosed amount.
Founded in 2010 by Mohammad Jaber and Rami Al-Qawasmi, Mawdoo3 specializes in AI technologies and large language models tailored to the Arabic language.
The deal aligns with Naif Al Rajhi Investment’s focus on emerging sectors, while providing the Jordan-based firm with the resources to expand into the Saudi market.
Mawdoo3, which has raised $25 million over three funding rounds – including a $10 million series B in 2019 – is poised to strengthen its regional presence through this partnership.
Geidea expands SoftPos solution to Egypt after success in Saudi Arabia and UAE
Geidea, a prominent Saudi provider of digital payment solutions, is set to launch its SoftPos service in Egypt after successful rollouts in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The SoftPos technology enables merchants to accept secure contactless payments via smartphones, eliminating the need for traditional point-of-sale devices.
This expansion is part of Geidea’s strategy to drive digital transformation across the region by enhancing payment efficiency and accessibility for businesses of all sizes.
SoftPos allows merchants to process secure payments directly from smartphones, adhering to global data protection and transaction safety standards, the company explained.
Flat6Labs backs 10 Saudi startups in Riyadh Seed Program cycle
Flat6Labs, a seed and early-stage venture capital firm operating in the MENA region, has invested in 10 Saudi startups as part of its fourth Riyadh Seed Program cycle.
The startups span a variety of sectors, including e-commerce, logistics, Software-as-a-Service, and cybersecurity, and each received $133,000 in funding.
The initiative is supported by the Saudi Venture Capital Co., Jada Fund of Funds, and Riyadh Valley Company, with additional backing from the National Technology Development Program.
Since launching its Riyadh program in 2023, Flat6Labs has funded 41 startups, solidifying its role in fostering innovation in Saudi Arabia’s entrepreneurial ecosystem.
Sylndr secures $7.46m to boost Egypt’s used car marketplace
Egypt-based used car marketplace Sylndr has raised $7.46 million in a capital facility to support its operations and growth.
EFG Hermes acted as the sole financial advisor for the transaction, with financing provided by EFG Corp-Solutions, Bank NXT, and EG Bank, among others.
Founded in 2021 by Amr Mazen and Omar El-Defrawy, Sylndr enables users to buy and sell used cars while offering financing solutions.
The new capital will be used to enhance customer experience, diversify inventory, and expand financing options. This follows a $12.6 million pre-seed round in 2022, led by RAED Ventures and Algebra Ventures.
Morocco’s PTS raises $500k to scale fintech solutions
Premium Technology & Services, a Morocco-based fintech startup, has secured $500,000 from BMCE Capital Investments, the private equity arm of BMCE Capital Group.
The funding will be used to advance PTS’s solutions for digitizing traditional banking cards, which are tailored to meet the evolving needs of banks and businesses.
Founded in 2020 by Samir Younes and two others, PTS plans to leverage the investment to drive innovation and scale operations to meet increasing demand in the region.
Watercycle Technologies raises $5.6m to advance MENA expansion
UK-based climate tech company Watercycle Technologies has closed a $5.6 million series A investment round led by Par Equity, alongside participation from Aer Ventures, Greater Manchester Combined Authority, and the University of Manchester Innovation Factory.
Founded in 2020 by Ahmed Abdelkarim and Sebastian Leaper, Watercycle Technologies focuses on sustainable critical mineral recovery while producing clean, drinkable water.
This investment will help the company expand its operations, with plans to extend services into the MENA region to support global Net Zero initiatives.
Iraq-based edtech Eduba acquired by a regional telecom giant
Eduba, an Iraq-based education tech startup, has been acquired by an undisclosed telecommunications conglomerate in a seven-figure deal.
Founded in 2019 by Azad Hassan, Haider Shaaban, and Raed Kadhem, Eduba began as a school management app and gained traction among private schools, securing accreditation from Iraq’s Ministry of Education.
This acquisition highlights the growing value of edtech solutions in the region and positions Eduba for further expansion under its new ownership.
Japan’s AI startup Recursive Inc. inks MoU with Saudi Arabia’s KAIMRC
Japan-based AI startup Recursive Inc. has signed a memorandum of understanding with the King Abdullah International Medical Research Center in Saudi Arabia to jointly develop an advanced system for the early detection of tuberculosis.
The partnership, formalized during the Riyadh Global Medical Biotechnology Summit, aims to leverage Recursive’s AI expertise and KAIMRC’s medical research capabilities to improve TB screening accuracy and diagnosis speed in the Kingdom.
This collaboration, supported by the Ministry of National Guard-Health Affairs, aligns with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 goals to transform its healthcare system and improve public health.
Using chest X-ray imaging data, the AI solution will enable timely TB diagnosis and treatment, reducing mortality and transmission risks.
“We are truly honored to partner with KAIMRC on this groundbreaking initiative,” said Tiago Ramalho, CEO of Recursive Inc.
“By combining KAIMRC’s pioneering medical research with our AI expertise, we are confident we can make a meaningful impact, not only in Saudi Arabia but also in regions worldwide that face the increasing challenge of TB and other infectious diseases,” he added.
The initiative also supports Saudi Arabia’s National Tuberculosis Program, which seeks to reduce TB mortality and incidence rates by 95 percent and 90 percent, respectively, by 2035 compared to 2015 levels.
Through this collaboration, Recursive and KAIMRC aim to create a scalable TB screening model for broader application in high-burden regions while exploring the use of AI to address other infectious diseases.
UAE and India emerge as top destinations for Saudi Arabia’s non-oil goods
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Arab neighbor UAE was the favorite destination for the Kingdom’s non-oil goods in September, with exports to the Emirates amounting to SR6.54 billion ($1.74 billion), official data showed.
According to the General Authority for Statistics, Saudi Arabia exported mechanical and electrical equipment worth SR3.10 billion to the UAE in September, followed by transport parts and chemical products valued at SR1.64 billion and SR375.8 million, respectively.
Bolstering the exports of non-oil goods is a crucial goal outlined in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 economic diversification agenda, with the Kingdom steadily reducing its decades-long dependence on crude revenues.
Earlier this month, speaking at the World Investment Conference, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim said that non-oil activities now account for 52 percent of the Kingdom’s gross domestic product.
He also added that this sector of the economy has been growing at 20 percent since the launch of the Vision 2030.
In September, Saudi Arabia’s outbound shipments of plastic and rubber products to the UAE stood at SR345.9 million, followed by live animals and animal products at SR149.6 million.
India was another major destination for Saudi Arabia’s non-oil products over the period, with the Asian nation receiving inbound shipments worth SR2.35 billion from the Kingdom.
Chemical products and allied industries worth SR1.21 billion were imported from Saudi Arabia by India.
Other major non-oil exports to the country were plastic products and jewelry valued at SR438.4 million and SR345.5 million, respectively.
China held the third spot for Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports, with the Asian giant receiving inbound shipments from the Kingdom valued at SR1.73 billion in September.
Other top destinations for Saudi Arabia’s non-energy products over the month were Singapore, which imported goods valued at SR1.39 billion, Turkiye at SR973.4 billion, and Belgium at SR964.7 billion.
Egypt imported non-oil goods worth SR862.8 billion from the Kingdom, followed by the US and Jordan at SR743.2 billion and SR733.1 billion, respectively.
Overall, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports increased by 22.8 percent year on year in September, reaching SR25.95 billion.
Affirming the progress of Saudi Arabia’s non-oil business activities, the Kingdom’s purchasing managers’ index rose to a six-month high of 56.9 in October, beating the September rating of 56.3 and the August level of 54.8.
According to the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI report, any readings above 50 indicate expansion of non-oil business activities, while levels below 50 signal contraction.
In October, a report released by Moody’s also projected that Saudi Arabia’s non-hydrocarbon real gross domestic product is set to grow between 5 percent and 5.5 percent from 2025 to 2027, driven by increased government spending.
GASTAT revealed that non-oil exports worth SR16.52 billion were sent to other countries through sea from Saudi Arabia, while outbound shipments via land and air totaled SR4.96 billion and SR4.46 billion, respectively.
King Fahad Industrial Sea Port in Jubail was the main exit point for Saudi Arabia’s non-energy exports with goods valued at SR3.54 billion.
Al Bat’ha Port handled non-oil outbound goods worth SR1.78 billion, while exports worth SR802.8 million passed through Al Hadithah Port.
Among airports, King Khalid International and King Abdulaziz International handled non-hydrocarbon export goods worth SR2.33 billion and SR1.89 billion, respectively.
Saudi Arabia’s overall merchandise exports
GASTAT, in its report, revealed that Saudi Arabia’s overall merchandise exports in September stood at SR88.56 billion, representing a decline of 14.9 percent compared to the same period of the previous year.
According to the authority, oil exports witnessed a fall of 24.5 percent year on year in September.
“Consequently, the percentage of oil exports out of total exports decreased from 79.7 percent in September 2023 to 70.7 percent in September 2024,” said GASTAT.
To stabilize the market, Saudi Arabia cut its oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in April 2023, a reduction now extended until December 2024.
China was the Kingdom’s most important trading partner in September, with exports to the Asian nation amounting to 13.91 billion, followed by Japan and the UAE at SR7.98 billion and SR7.49 billion, respectively.
The strong flow of Saudi exports to China signifies strong bilateral relations between both nations, with the Kingdom being the largest trading partner of China in the Middle East since 2001, and bilateral trade between the nations reaching $107.23 billion in 2023.
China and Saudi Arabia are strategic partners in various other sectors like energy and finance, as well as the Belt and Road Initiative.
In September, Saudi Arabia’s exports to South Korea amounted to SR6.87 billion, followed by the US at SR3.27 billion, Egypt at SR2.89 billion and Singapore at SR2.70 billion.
Imports in September
GASTAT revealed that Saudi Arabia’s overall imports in September reached SR69.8 billion, representing an increase of 15 percent compared to the same month of the previous year, while the surplus of the merchandise trade balance decreased by 56.9 percent during the same period.
In September, Saudi Arabia imported goods worth SR17.99 billion from China, led by mechanical appliances and electrical equipment valued at SR8.29 billion.
The authority added that Chinese imports of transport equipment and base metal products amounted to SR2.37 billion and SR1.66 billion, respectively.
Saudi Arabia also imported plastic and rubber products from China valued at SR976.6 million, followed by textiles at SR955.6 million.
China was closely followed by the US and Germany with imports from these nations to the Kingdom in September stood at SR5.39 billion and SR3.45 billion, respectively.
In September, Saudi Arabia imported goods worth SR3.42 billion from the UAE, and SR3.21 billion from India.
Italian imports to the Kingdom amounted to SR2.50 billion, while inbound shipments from Japan and Indonesia stood at SR2.34 billion and SR2.08 billion, respectively.
GASTAT said that inbound shipments worth SR43.07 billion reached the Kingdom via sea, while imports valued at SR18.07 billion and SR8.73 billion came via air and land, respectively.
King Abdulaziz Sea Port in Dammam was the primary entry point for goods in September through sea, with imports valued at SR19.65 billion, representing 28.1 percent of the total inbound shipments.
The report revealed that Jeddah Islamic Sea Port handled incoming shipments valued at SR12.54 billion, followed by Ras Tanura Sea Port at SR4.78 billion.
King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh welcomed inbound shipments worth SR8.57 billion.
Through land, Al Bat’ha Port and Riyadh Dry Port handled imports valued at SR3.51 billion and SR3.09 billion, respectively.
Arab stock markets see growth in trading activity with a 16.35% surge in value: AMF
RIYADH: Arab stock markets experienced a boost in trading values in October, with a monthly increase of 16.35 percent, according to the latest report by the Arab Monetary Fund.
The AMF’s monthly bulletin showed that the total trading values soared to $97.1 billion, up from $83.5 billion in September.
This surge came despite a slight overall dip of 0.57 percent in market capitalization, which ended the month at $4.27 trillion.
The gains were not universal, however, as 10 stock exchanges recorded increases in trading value, while four saw declines.
Market winners: exceptional growth in trading value
Oman’s Muscat Securities Market emerged as the top performer, registering a 185.03 percent increase in trading value. The market’s total value jumped to $515.7 million in October, compared to just $180.9 million in September.
Tunisia followed closely with a 161.66 percent rise, driven by robust investor activity, while Abu Dhabi’s financial market saw trading values almost double, with a 97.56 percent increase to reach $18.52 billion.
Other notable performers included Iraq, where trading values climbed by 52.57 percent, and Qatar, Oman, and Casablanca each recording double-digit percentage increases.
Smaller but meaningful gains were observed in Kuwait at 13.89 percent and Saudi Arabia at 4.69 percent.
Despite the widespread rises, Bahrain, Damascus, and Beirut faced steep declines in trading value. Bahrain was the worst hit, experiencing a 65.57 percent drop, followed by Damascus with a 50.13 percent decline and Beirut with a 43.86 percent dip.
Index movements: Iraq takes the lead
The performance of individual market indices highlighted the uneven landscape across the region.
Iraq Stock Exchange: The standout performer with a 12.39 percent rise in its index, reflecting strong market sentiment and heightened investor interest.
Damascus Securities Exchange: Achieved a 6.99 percent increase in its index, maintaining its growth streak.
Dubai Financial Market: Recorded a 1.94 percent uptick, signaling stability in the UAE’s financial sector.
Muscat Securities Market: Saw a modest index increase of 0.83 percent, correlating with its strong performance in trading value.
Indices in several major markets experienced declines:
Saudi Stock Market: The index fell by 1.67 percent, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Egypt’s EGX30: Dropped by 2.94 percent, despite improved trading values.
Casablanca: Declined by 1.42 percent.
Palestine: Down 1.27 percent.
Market capitalization: Mixed signals amid trading gains
Despite the surge in trading activity, the overall market capitalization across Arab stock markets contracted slightly by 0.57 percent, settling at $4.27 trillion.
The Saudi market led the decline, shedding $23.86 billion in capitalization, while Abu Dhabi’s market lost $12.27 billion. Tunisia and Palestine also reported decreases.
Oman stood out among the gainers, achieving an 11.85 percent increase in market capitalization, followed by Damascus at 6.42 percent and Iraq at 6.08 percent, underlining their robust performances during the month.
External influences shape regional performance
The markets’ performance mirrored global trends, with major international indices reflecting mixed results.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined by 1.54 percent, while the S&P 500 and FTSE also posted slight losses of 0.99 percent and 1.54 percent, respectively.
These fluctuations were compounded by ongoing regional challenges, including interest rate adjustments. Several Arab central banks lowered interest rates in September, boosting liquidity and supporting trading activity.
Geopolitical tensions also had an impact, with uncertainty in the Middle East, including potential disruptions in oil trade through the Red Sea, impacting investor sentiment.
Energy market dynamics saw volatile oil prices, influenced by production adjustments from OPEC+ and global demand concerns, add another layer of complexity.
A resilient outlook for Arab markets
October’s results underscored the resilience and adaptability of Arab stock markets amid global and regional challenges.
While trading values surged, the market still faces external pressures, such as global economic uncertainty, oil market fluctuations, and geopolitical risks.
Nonetheless, the substantial recovery in trading activity highlighted the potential for sustained growth and development in the region’s financial sector.
As the year progresses, market watchers will closely monitor how Arab exchanges navigate these challenges, balancing internal reforms with external influences to maintain momentum.
This performance sets the stage for a promising end to 2024, with opportunities for further investment and regional financial integration.
Saudi corporate lending fuels bank loans growth to near 2-year high of 12.46%
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s bank loans reached SR2.88 trillion ($768.93 billion) in October, a 12.46 percent annual growth and the highest in 20 months, official data showed.
According to figures from the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, this growth reflects strong corporate and personal lending trends, driven by the Kingdom’s expanding economic activities.
Corporate loans were the main driver, surging 15.77 percent to SR1.54 trillion. This increase highlights the significant contribution of the real estate, wholesale, retail, and manufacturing sectors to the Kingdom’s economic dynamism.
Real estate activities led the charge, representing 20.29 percent of corporate lending and growing by 27.37 percent to SR312.4 billion.
Wholesale and retail trade accounted for 13 percent of corporate lending, reaching SR200.63 billion with an annual growth rate of 9.06 percent.
The manufacturing sector, a key component of Vision 2030’s economic diversification goals, represented 11.68 percent of lending at SR180.05 billion.
Meanwhile, electricity, gas, and water supplies contributed 11.32 percent to the total, growing significantly by nearly 30 percent to reach SR174.57 billion.
Notably, professional, scientific, and technical activities, though holding a smaller 0.54 percent share of corporate credit, witnessed the most significant surge, with a 53.55 percent growth rate to SR8.27 billion.
On the personal loans side, which includes various financing options for individuals, the sector grew 8.89 percent annually to SR1.34 trillion. This expansion underscores the continued confidence in consumer lending and the Kingdom’s economic diversification strategies.
In October, Saudi banks’ loans-to-deposits ratio also increased to 80.73 percent, up from 79.69 percent in the same month of 2023, as per data from the SAMA.
The calculation includes loans minus provisions and commissions, providing a clearer view of actual lending capacity.
SAMA has set a regulatory limit of 90 percent for loans-to-deposits ratios, balancing banks’ lending capacity with liquidity stability while supporting economic growth through corporate and individual borrowing.
Compared to other GCC nations, such as the UAE where loans-to-deposits ratios can exceed 100 percent, SAMA’s cap reflects a more cautious approach, prioritizing liquidity stability in the banking sector.
Saudi Arabia’s corporate and real estate lending are experiencing unprecedented growth, fueled by a combination of favorable economic conditions, government initiatives, and strategic investments under Vision 2030.
As the Kingdom accelerates its transformation, the demand for financing across key sectors, particularly real estate, has surged, reflecting its rapid urbanization and infrastructure development.
The Saudi Central Bank’s decision to mirror the US Federal Reserve’s policies, reducing interest rates by 50 basis points in September and an additional 25 basis points in November, has created an attractive borrowing environment.
This rate adjustment is anticipated to further boost real estate lending, allowing developers and individuals to capitalize on lower financing costs.
Real estate development remains central to Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification goals. Under Vision 2030, initiatives to position Riyadh as a global business hub and the Regional Headquarters Program have significantly increased demand for commercial real estate.
These efforts are complemented by giga-projects like NEOM and Red Sea Global, which are redefining urban landscapes with sustainable and energy-efficient designs.
The Public Investment Fund’s commitment to green building practices, with over $19.4 billion allocated to eligible green projects, underscores the alignment between real estate growth and environmental sustainability.
In October, PIF highlighted its green bond investments, including $6.3 billion earmarked for green building projects. These investments aim to set new standards in energy efficiency, saving up to 20 percent of energy compared to conventional buildings and avoiding thousands of tons of carbon emissions annually.
Projects such as NEOM’s sustainable water infrastructure further illustrate how the Kingdom is integrating advanced sustainability measures into its development agenda.
Wholesale and retail market
The growing share of wholesale and retail trade lending by Saudi banks reflects the sector’s pivotal role in the Kingdom’s economic evolution.
This expansion is underpinned by a combination of government incentives, private sector dynamism, and increased consumer demand.
The Saudi government has actively encouraged the growth of this sector through measures like tax exemptions, financing initiatives, and technology transfer programs.
These policies have created a fertile ground for local entrepreneurs and attracted foreign companies eager to capitalize on Saudi Arabia’s business-friendly environment.
Consumer demand is a key driver, with rising interest in diverse products such as electronics, apparel, and food items.
The emergence of e-commerce platforms has further revolutionized the sector, enabling online retailers to reach broader audiences with ease, thereby increasing market participation.
According to data from 6Wresearch, such initiatives have heightened competition, lowered prices, and benefited both consumers and traders, adding to the sector’s momentum.
The sector’s importance is also evident in employment trends.
According to a report by DataSaudi, the wholesale and retail trade sector employed over 1.64 million people in the second quarter of 2024, making it one of the largest employers in the Kingdom, alongside construction and manufacturing.
This employment surge highlights the sector’s contribution to economic stability and growth.
However, challenges persist. Intense competition, pricing pressures, and the entry of international brands partnering with local retailers are sparking pricing wars that could erode profit margins for some players, according to 6Wresearch.
Despite these hurdles, ongoing government support and initiatives like Vision 2030 promise to create new investment opportunities, reinforcing the wholesale and retail trade sector as a cornerstone of Saudi Arabia’s economic future.
