LONDON: It is that time of year when the Gulf’s plethora of real estate pundits look into their crystal balls to see what the future might hold.
Last year was a particularly difficult for the region as it contended with weak oil prices, political tensions and volatile investor sentiment. The introduction of value-added tax in Saudi Arabia and the UAE from 2018 will inject yet more short-term uncertainty into the market, some commentators have said.
However, as the global price of crude picks up, the economic growth prospects of the region’s oil-exporting countries are projected to improve in 2018.
The latest IMF forecast for 2018 expects Gulf gross domestic product (GDP) growth to rebound to 3.3 percent, largely driven by a turnaround in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
But whether this new economic confidence filters into the real estate market remains to be seen — with further declines forecast in the UAE’s two main property markets, Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Arab News takes a look at how the two markets are looking this year.
Dubai: A mixed bag with hopes of a “bottoming out” in 2018
According to a report by property consultancy Cluttons, the three years up until winter 2017 were “very challenging” for Dubai’s residential market, with capital values dropping by 16.6 percent. Residential values were estimated to end 2017 down 5 to 7 percent on 2016 numbers, the consultancy said.
“The introduction of Federal Mortgage Caps and the collapse in oil prices during 2014 have been key catalysts in shaping the market over the last 36 months, alongside the deteriorating global geopolitical backdrop, which also spooked investors,” Cluttons said in a report.
Around 40,000 more residential units will be completed in Dubai in 2018, according to the Property Monitor Supply Tracker. This may put further pressure on rent and sales prices, in particular the secondary market, analysts have said.
According to Cluttons, 2018 still has the potential for values to start “bottoming out” in the second half of the year, but much will depend on the yet-to-materialize “Expo 2020 effect,” the strength of the US dollar and a slowing in both the rate of delivery and type of new residential schemes announced, with “affordable” housing being key to helping the market stabilize.
“On balance, we expect values to decline by an average of 3 percent to 5 percent (in 2018),” Cluttons said. “The rental market is expected to mirror the performance of capital values in 2018.”
According to Cluttons, low-end apartments and villas encompassing the city’s most affordable locations such as International City, IMPZ, Discovery Gardens, Jumeirah, Sports City and JLT, collectively registered no change in average rents in the third quarter of 2017, highlighting “the potential depth of demand for more affordable rental accommodation going into 2018.”
Syed Wajih, a property consultant at Better Homes Dubai, told Arab News: “This is a temporary dip and it’s the best time to buy. The prices are low because of the oil price, VAT uncertainty and uncertain sentiment, but there is a lot of movement now because of the low prices.”
Abu Dhabi: Gloomy market with falling property prices
According to JLL, Abu Dhabi residential rents and sales prices dipped in the third quarter of 2017 as vacancies increased in response to subdued demand and increased supply. Rental demand has been negatively impacted by job losses and cuts in housing allowances while suppressed sentiment has resulted in fewer sale transactions, the consultancy said.
JLL said apartment rents declined by around 13 percent on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter due to the “continued increase in vacancy rates, resulting new supply completions during a period of job losses and cuts in housing allowances.”
Residential vacancies are expected to increase further in 2018, causing further rental declines, the property firm predicted.
Residential prices have also continued to fall, with average prices for prime villas declining 8 percent in the third quarter, down 13 percent year-on-year, said JLL.
“Declining sentiment and reduced transaction volumes have driven these falls with average prices expected to decline further during 2018,” it said.
The latest Abu Dhabi property report from Cluttons noted: “Weaker economic growth has taken its toll on the hydrocarbon sector in particular, which has been a key driver of demand in the residential and commercial markets in the emirate historically.”
Cluttons added: “(2018) is likely to see rents slipping further, with newly completed buy-to-let stock becoming a particular challenge in some of the city’s newer neighborhoods.”
The firm predicts that Abu Dhabi rents are likely to drop by 5 percent to 7 percent in 2018, “unless there is a notable rebounding in economic growth.”
No New Year cheer for UAE property market
No New Year cheer for UAE property market
Global markets rattle as US tariffs on China hit 145%
- Initial market gains wiped out; US stocks dive and oil slumps over renewed trade fears
WASHINGTON: The global economy was thrown into turmoil on Thursday as the US-China trade war sharply escalated, overshadowing a temporary sense of relief sparked by President Donald Trump’s earlier decision to scale back sweeping tariffs on other international partners.
While investors initially cheered a perceived de-escalation in the US’ trade stance, it soon became clear that the administration was doubling down on its economic confrontation with Beijing—sending markets into a tailspin and raising alarm over the direction of global trade.
Just a day after hinting at a broader pause in tariff threats, the White House confirmed that the cumulative tariff rate imposed by the US on Chinese imports this year had reached a staggering 145 percent, not the previously reported 125 percent.
The correction stemmed from the fact that the latest hike builds on a 20 percent base tariff already in place. In retaliation, China has slapped its own 84 percent levies on US goods, signaling its readiness for a prolonged standoff.
The dramatic escalation came in stark contrast to Trump’s softer stance toward other global trade partners. The president maintained a 10 percent blanket tariff on most countries but walked back harsher threats—particularly against the EU, which had been bracing for a 20 percent hit. That reversal prompted Brussels to suspend for 90 days its planned retaliatory tariffs on €20 billion worth of US goods.
Financial markets
Amid the mixed signals, global financial markets reacted in sharply divergent ways. Asian and European markets soared early Thursday, buoyed by the initial news of Trump’s restraint. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 surged 9.1 percent, South Korea’s Kospi climbed 6.6 percent, and Germany’s DAX jumped 5.4 percent, marking their first trading sessions since the US policy shift.
However, sentiment soured quickly in the US as investors digested the deeper implications of the escalating conflict with China. The S&P 500 dropped 5 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted by 1,746 points, and the Nasdaq Composite sank 5.8 percent, wiping out optimism fueled by a surprisingly positive inflation report.
President Trump has framed the tariffs as part of a broader strategy to rewire the global economy, encouraging manufacturers to return to US soil. His commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, remained upbeat, declaring on social media, “The Golden Age is coming. We are committed to protecting our interests, engaging in global negotiations, and exploding our economy.”
Meanwhile, international leaders struck a more cautious tone. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed Trump’s partial retreat, saying, “We want to give negotiations a chance,” but warned that the EU would not hesitate to reinstate countermeasures if talks failed to deliver results.
Similarly, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described the US shift as a “welcome reprieve” and confirmed that Ottawa would initiate trade negotiations with Washington following Canada’s April 28 elections.
China also signaled both resistance and openness. In a symbolic move, Beijing announced it would restrict the number of Hollywood films allowed into the country, but left the door open for dialogue. Commerce Ministry spokesperson He Yongqian called on the US to meet China halfway and resolve differences through “mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation.”
Oil markets react
Commodities markets were not spared from the uncertainty. Oil prices, which had rallied the previous session, reversed course as investors reassessed the implications of the trade tensions.
US West Texas Intermediate crude fell $2.22 or 3.6 percent to $60.13 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped $2.04 or 3.1 percent to $63.44 per barrel.
Pakistan markets rebound as Trump makes tariff U-turn
- US President Donald Trump has announced a 90-day delay in tariffs
- KSE-100 Index surged by over 2,036 points following the announcement
KARACHI: Pakistan’s stock market bounced back on Thursday after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day delay in tariffs, analysts said.
The KSE-100 Index surged by over 2,036 points (1.75 percent), following the announcement.
On Wednesday (April 9), the KSE-100 Index had dropped 5 percent, leading to a 45-minute halt in trading.
Zafar Moti, CEO of Zafar Moti Capital Securities, said the decision helped calm investors, while Ahsan Mehanti, Managing Director and CEO of Arif Habib Group, said the pause in tariffs was seen as good news by investors.
“The Pakistan Stock Exchange closed on a positive note,” Topline Securities said in its daily market review.
“This upward trajectory was fueled by a strong rebound in US and other international equity markets, with the index rallying as much as 3,331 points during intraday trading.”
Chinese diplomat condemns US tariffs as ‘abusive’ and warns of global trade damage
- Minister Counselor in the Embassy of China Ma Jian says US tariffs are “economic bullying.”
RIYADH: US tariffs imposed on Chinese goods are “abusive” and damaging to global supply chains, a diplomat from the Asian country to Saudi Arabia has said.
Speaking at a media roundtable held in the Chinese Embassy in Riyadh, Minister Counselor Ma Jian said his country’s government expresses its strong condemnation and firm rejection of the measures taken by President Donald Trump.
On Wednesday, the US government announced a three-month pause on all the “reciprocal” tariffs that had gone into effect — except those affecting China, which were raised to 125 percent, hours after Beijing boosted the duty on American goods to 84 percent.
Jian said the actions of the White House “violate basic economic rules and market principles and disregard the balance of interests reached in multilateral trade negotiations, and ignore the fact that the United States has long gained significantly from international trade.”
The official told Arab News: “The Chinese government expresses its strong condemnation and firm rejection of this action.”
He added: “The US’ abusive behavior by imposing tariffs seriously harms the trade system and the rules of the World Trade Organization and also harms the global economy.
“Moreover, the abusive imposition of tariffs also causes damage to global supply chains and the multilateral trading system.”
Jian stated that analysis of data from the World Trade Organization shows that under this US policy, the gap between countries will widen, with less developed countries suffering more severe consequences.
“We demand and hope that the US side stops this wrong behavior and acts in response to the calls of the peoples of the world to achieve mutual benefit and greater development of the global economy,” Jian told Arab News.
When asked what, if any steps China will take to mitigate the tensions amidst the trade war with the US following the recent retaliatory tariffs, the Minister Counselor stated: “We will follow the path that the President (Xi Jinping) affirmed — of mutual respect, peaceful deliberation, and cooperation for mutual benefit — as a sign of developing relations with the US.”
He added: “However, we will take a few measures to safeguard our legitimate and reasonable rights and interests.
“The nature of cooperation and dealings between countries is mutual benefit.”
Jian said the US is using tariffs “as a weapon to exert maximum pressure and advance selfish interests,” adding: “These are acts of unilateralism, protectionism, and economic bullying.”
He went on to say that the “zero-sum game” the US has pursued under the pretext of pursuing “reciprocity” and “parity” is, by its very nature, a pursuit of “America First” and “American exceptionalism.”
The Minister Counselor added: “They aim to overthrow the existing international economic and trade order through tariffs.”
The diplomat went on to say: “They place American interests above the overall interests of the international community and serve American hegemony at the expense of the legitimate interests of other countries. They will inevitably be widely rejected by the international community.”
China-US trade in goods has historically grown rapidly since their diplomatic ties were established in 1979.
UN figures show that in 2024 the volume of trade in goods between the two reached $688.28 billion — 275 times the volume of the trade in 1979 and more than eight times the volume of trade in 2001, when China joined the World Trade Organization.
In a regular press conference on April 8, foreign minister spokesperson Lin Jian said that China will take necessary measures to firmly safeguard its legitimate and lawful rights and interests.
“If the US decides not to care about the interests of the US itself, China, and the rest of the world and is determined to fight a tariff and trade war, China’s response will continue to the end,” he said, adding: “China is not a seeker of trouble but make no mistake, when challenged we will never back down. Intimidations and threats never work with China.”
Saudi Arabia climbs to 13th spot in Kearney’s FDI Confidence Index
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia rose to 13th place in Kearney’s 2025 Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index, its highest-ever ranking, reflecting stronger investor sentiment amid ongoing economic reforms and diversification efforts.
The Kingdom advanced one spot from last year and retained its position as the third most attractive emerging market, signaling continued global confidence in its transformation strategy.
The annual index, released by consultancy Kearney, reflects insights from senior executives at the world’s leading corporations about likely investment destinations over the next three years. The survey, conducted in January, provides a snapshot of investor sentiment amid a shifting global landscape.
This comes as Saudi Arabia’s net foreign direct investment inflows surged by 37 percent in the third quarter of 2024 to SR16 billion ($4.26 billion), up from SR11.7 billion in the previous quarter, underscoring the Kingdom’s growing appeal to international investors, according to the latest available data from the General Authority for Statistics.
Rudolph Lohmeyer, senior partner global business policy council and head of the National Transformations Institute, part of Kearney Foresight Network, said: “Saudi Arabia’s climb is no coincidence — it reflects the Kingdom’s bold, reform-driven approach to building a globally competitive, future-ready economy.”
He added: “Global investors are taking note of the clarity of vision, scale of ambition, and commitment to innovation that define the Saudi market today.”
The Kingdom’s improvement comes at a time when global investors are prioritizing stable, high-performing markets with long-term growth potential. It also aligns with the newly enacted investment law that guarantees equal treatment for foreign and domestic investors, enhancing business confidence and ease of market entry.
FDI inflows into Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sectors rose 10.4 percent in 2023, as global investors were drawn to the scale and pace of transformation under Vision 2030.
According to the survey, investors highlighted the Kingdom’s strong domestic economic performance, abundant natural resources, and rapid technological innovation as key factors for choosing Saudi Arabia as an investment destination. These elements support its ongoing shift toward a diversified, innovation-led economy.
Erik Peterson, co-author of the report and managing director of Kearney’s Global Business Policy Council, said: “While the Middle East sees strong representation, developed markets dominate the global rankings, led by the US.”
“This speaks to a dynamic and evolving investment landscape, where investors are not only weighing opportunity but also navigating rising risks, including increasingly restrictive regulatory environments driven by a wave of industrial policy aimed at strengthening domestic resilience and national security,” he added.
Saudi Arabia’s strong performance places it among the top emerging markets for investment, alongside the UAE and China.
Despite cautious sentiment in some markets, confidence in the Kingdom is on the rise, underscoring its growing role in global capital flows and its emergence as a model for high-growth, reform-oriented economies.
The report noted that investor sentiment was captured before the sharp escalation in global trade tensions in early April. Still, early indicators already pointed to rising concerns over geopolitical instability and commodity price pressures.
“Yet, amid uncertainty, investors continue to prioritize strong fundamentals when selecting markets — citing legal and regulatory efficiency, economic performance, and innovation as key drivers,” it added.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 11,502
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Thursday, gaining 405.89 points, or 3.66 percent, to close at 11,502.54.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR8.32 billion ($2.21billion), as 244 of the listed stocks advanced, while only 7 retreated.
This aligns with the rebound in global stock markets following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs introduced earlier this month. The pause applies to all US trade partners except China, which now faces a tariff rate of 125 percent — up from 104 percent.
The MSCI Tadawul Index increased by 53.37 points, or 3.79 percent, to close at 1,462.83.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also rose, gaining 554.66 points, or 1.96 percent, to close at 28,924.55. This came as 68 of the listed stocks advanced, while 22 retreated.
The best-performing stock was Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co., with its share price surging by 10 percent to SR66.
Other top performers included Saudi Chemical Co., which saw its share price rise by 9.99 percent to SR8.26, and Ataa Educational Co., which saw a 9.95 percent increase to SR69.60.
The National Co. for Learning and Education saw the largest decline of the day, with its share price easing 0.86 percent to SR160.60.
SEDCO Capital REIT Fund fell 0.55 percent to SR7.29, while Al-Jouf Agricultural Development Co. slipped 0.22 percent to SR46.25.
On the announcements front, the Ordinary General Assembly of SABIC approved the business and contracts between SABIC Industrial Investments Co., an affiliate of the company, and Ma’aden.
The deal involved SABIC Industrial Investments Co. selling its 20.62 percent stake in ALBA Co., totaling 292.8 million common shares, to Ma’aden for 363.08 million Bahraini dinar ($963.2 million), with no preferential terms.
Additionally, the Assembly authorized the board to distribute interim dividends quarterly or semi-annual for the fiscal year 2025.
SABIC’s shares traded 0.83 percent higher today on the main market to reach SR60.60. Similarly, Ma’aden’s shares traded 4.63 percent higher on the main market, reaching SR42.90
