DUBAI: Iranian authorities are concerned that nationwide unrest will undermine the clerical establishment and want to stamp out the protests quickly, senior regime officials say. But the person with the most to lose is President Hassan Rouhani.
While several senior officials said there was concern that prolonged unrest would damage the legitimacy and influence of the country’s religious leaders, few insiders see the unrest as an existential threat to that leadership, which has ruled since the 1979 revolution and is now controlled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the ultimate authority in Iran’s system of dual clerical and republican rule.
The biggest loser, they say, is likely to be Rouhani, who is much more closely tied to the country’s economic policies.
“Of course, Rouhani and his government will have less power afterward, especially because his economic policy was criticized during the unrest,” said political analyst Hamid Farahvashian.
“He will be a lame-duck president and Khamenei will have more power.”
Much of the protesters’ anger has focused on what Rouhani and his government have failed to deliver: An economic boom promised as the payoff for the 2015 deal that curbed Iran’s disputed nuclear program in return for world powers lifting sanctions.
Protesters are angry that Iran’s youth unemployment rate is edging toward 30 percent, want higher wages and an end to alleged graft. They have chanted slogans against all of Iran’s leaders, including the clerical elite, and attacked police vehicles, banks and mosques as the unrest widened.
“The continuation of the protests will lead to a legitimacy crisis,” said one senior official close to Rouhani, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.
“People have economic demands... of course these demands should be taken seriously... of course the establishment should listen to the people, but all these can be discussed in a calm atmosphere,” the official said.
Some conservatives have pushed for a hard-line approach, even though bloodshed could fuel more protests in the largest wave of demonstrations since nationwide unrest in 2009.
“So far, security forces have not tried to prevent the demonstrations... but this will change if (Khamenei) calls for an end to the street protests and demonstrators defy his call,” said one former Iranian official from the reformist camp.
Even if the unrest is quelled, the demands of tens of thousands of restless working-class youths who have taken to the streets are unlikely to dissipate.
Khamenei spoke publicly for the first time about the crisis on Tuesday, accusing Iran’s enemies of stirring unrest but saying no more. A statement on his website said he would address the nation about the events “when the time is right.”
The protesters have little chance of toppling the clerical leaders, who appear to be retaining control of the military, police, and security forces and have no compunction about using them, according to one US official following the developments.
Rouhani, who was elected in 2013, is more exposed. He is seen as a pragmatist at odds with Iran’s hard-liners and has said in response to the protests that Iranians have a right to criticize the authorities.
But he has a fight on his hands because of growing resentment over high prices and allegations of corruption.
“His power is limited in Iran’s ruling system. Public discontent is increasing ... people are losing their faith in the establishment system,” a third Iranian official said. “The leaders are well aware of this fact and its dangerous consequences.”
US officials fear the likeliest outcome of the protests is discrediting what one called Rouhani’s “moderate brand of moderation” and a harsher crackdown by the clerical authorities.
“It’s an open question whether Rouhani ever intended to keep any of his promises, but he hasn’t delivered, especially on the economic front, and that means he has no popular support and is expendable to Khamenei,” said a second US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.
“He’s likely to be one of the casualties, though maybe not immediately.”
Rouhani has blamed his predecessor and the US, Iran’s long-time adversary, for the economy’s shortcomings.
But his government has also backtracked on planned fuel price rises and promised more jobs.
Rouhani may need to spend more money to create more employment if he is to ease discontent and could risk antagonizing powerful interests if he tries to address allegations of corruption.
His vulnerability and the deep divisions in Iran’s hierarchy have fueled suspicions among some of his sympathizers that conservative rivals may have played a hand in the crisis.
“It was a coup against Rouhani and his achievements ... The aim was to harm Rouhani,” said Saeed Leylaz, a political analyst close to the pro-reform movement.
But a fourth official in Tehran said the nationwide protests had united Iran’s leadership.
“At this point, it is not important whether a political faction initiated the unrest to harm the rival group,” the official said. “The unrest was hijacked by our enemies ... that is why all factions have united to protect the Islamic Republic.”
Iran protests could hurt clerics but Rouhani has most to lose, say insiders
Iran protests could hurt clerics but Rouhani has most to lose, say insiders
Israeli troops reach deepest point in Lebanon since October 1 invasion
- Media reports: Israeli ground forces pull back early Saturday after fierce battles with Hezbollah fighters
- Israeli troops earlier captured a strategic hill in the southern Lebanese village of Chamaa
Israeli troops captured a strategic hill in the southern Lebanese village of Chamaa, about 5 kilometers (3 miles) from the Israeli border early Saturday, the state-run National News Agency reported. It said Israeli troops were later pushed back from the hill.
It added that Israeli troops detonated the Shrine of Shimon the Prophet in Chamaa as well as several homes before they withdrew, but the claim could not be immediately verified.
Israel’s military said in a statement that its troops “continue their limited, localized, and targeted operational activity in southern Lebanon.” The military did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the Lebanese media reports.
The push on the ground came as Israeli warplanes pounded Beirut’s southern suburbs as well as several other areas in southern Lebanon including the port city of Tyre.
The morning strike in Beirut hit an area known as Dahiyeh, which the Israeli military called a Hezbollah stronghold, saying its planes had hit multiple sites used by the militant group. Residents were given advance warning by Israel, and it was not immediately clear whether there were any casualties.
The increase of violence came as Lebanese and Hezbollah officials are studying a draft proposal presented by the US earlier this week on ending the war.
Since late September, Israel dramatically escalated its bombardment of Lebanon, vowing to cripple Hezbollah and end its barrages in Israel. More than 3,400 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli fire – 80 percent of them in the eight weeks – according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.
On Friday, Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister apparently urged Iran to try and convince Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire deal with Israel, which would require the group to pull back from the Israel-Lebanon border. The proposal is based on UN Security Council resolution 1701, which ended the last Israel-Hezbollah war in the summer of 2006.
A copy of the draft proposal was handed over earlier this week by the US ambassador to Lebanon to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who has been negotiating on behalf of Hezbollah, according to a Lebanese official. The official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak about the secret talks said Berri is expected to give Lebanon’s response on Monday.
Another Lebanese politician said Hezbollah officials had received the draft, were studying it and would express their opinion on it to Berri. The politician also spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media about the ongoing talks.
Berri told the pan-Arab Asharq Al-Awsat daily newspaper that the draft does not include any item that allows Israel to act in Lebanon if the deal is violated.
“We will not accept any infringement of our sovereignty,” Berri was quoted as saying.
He added that one of the items mentioned in the draft that Lebanon does not accept is the proposal to form a committee to supervise the agreement that includes members from Western countries.
Berri added that talks are ongoing regarding this point as well as other details in the draft, adding that “the atmosphere is positive but all relies on how things will end.”
There is also a push to end the war between Israel and Hamas, which began after Palestinian militants stormed into Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing about 1,200 people – mostly civilians – and abducting 250 others.
The UN Security Council’s 10 elected members on Thursday circulated a draft resolution demanding “an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire” in Gaza.
The US, Israel’s closest ally, holds the key to whether the UN Security Council adopts the resolution. The four other permanent members – Russia, China, Britain and France – are expected to support it or abstain.
Israel’s bombardment and ground offensives since the initial Hamas attack have killed more than 43,000 people in Gaza, Palestinian health officials say. The officials don’t distinguish between civilians and combatants but say more than half of those killed have been women and children.
Israel strikes south Beirut after Israeli evacuation call
- Since Tuesday, Israel has carried out several strikes on the city’s southern suburbs
BEIRUT: A strike hit the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital Beirut on Saturday, AFPTV footage showed, shortly after the Israeli army issued a new call to evacuate the area.
Since Tuesday, Israel has carried out several strikes on the city’s southern suburbs, a stronghold of Hezbollah.
AFPTV video showed three plumes of smoke rising over the buildings in the area on Saturday morning.
Shortly before the attack, Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee posted on X a call for residents of the Haret Hreik suburb to evacuate.
“You are close to facilities and interests belonging to Hezbollah, against which the Israeli military will be acting with force in the near future,” the post said in Arabic, identifying specific buildings and telling residents to move at least 500 meters away.
Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency (NNA) said “the enemy” carried out three air raids, including one near Haret Hreik.
“The first strike near Haret Hreik destroyed buildings and caused damage in the area,” it said.
Repeated Israeli air strikes on south Beirut have led to a mass exodus of civilians from the area, although some return during the day to check on their homes and businesses.
In southern Lebanon, Israel carried out several strikes on Friday night and early Saturday, according to NNA.
Overnight, Hezbollah also claimed two rocket attacks targeting the headquarters of an infantry battalion in northern Israel.
Since September 23, Israel has ramped up its air campaign in Lebanon, later sending in ground troops following almost a year of limited, cross-border exchanges begun by Hezbollah over the Gaza war.
Lebanese authorities say that more than 3,440 people have been killed since October last year, when Hezbollah and Israel began trading fire.
The conflict has cost Lebanon more than $5 billion in economic losses, with actual structural damage amounting to billions more, the World Bank said on Thursday.
Hamas ready for ceasefire ‘immediately’ but Israel yet to offer ‘serious’ proposal
- Hamas official Basem Naim says Oct. 7 attack ‘an act of self defense’
- ‘I have the right to live a free and dignified life,’ he tells Sky News
LONDON: A Hamas official has claimed that Israel has not put forward any “serious proposals” for a ceasefire since the assassination of its leader Ismail Haniyeh, despite the group being ready for one “immediately.”
Dr. Basem Naim told the Sky News show “The World With Yalda Hakim” that the last “well-defined, brokered deal” was put on the table between the two warring sides on July 2.
“It was discussed in all details and I think we were near to a ceasefire ... which can end this war, offer a permanent ceasefire and total withdrawal and prisoner exchange,” he said. “Unfortunately (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu preferred to go the other way.”
Naim urged the incoming Trump administration to do whatever necessary to help end the war.
He said Hamas does not regret its attack against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which left 1,200 people dead and prompted Israel’s invasion of Gaza that has killed in excess of 43,000 people and left hundreds of thousands injured.
Naim said Israel is guilty of “big massacres” in the Palestinian enclave, and when asked if Hamas bore responsibility as a result of the Oct. 7 attack, he called it “an act of self defense,” adding: “It’s exactly as if you’re accusing the victims for the crimes of the aggressor.”
He continued: “I’m a member of Hamas, but at the same time I’m an innocent Palestinian civilian because I have the right to live a free and dignified life and I have the right to defend myself, to defend my family.”
When asked if he regrets the Oct. 7 attack, Naim replied: “Do you believe that a prisoner who is knocking (on) the door or who is trying to get out of the prison, he has to regret his will to be? This is part of our dignity ... to defend ourselves, to defend our children.”
Italy protests to Israel over unexploded shell hitting Italian base in Lebanon
- Tajani said the safety of the soldiers in UNIFIL had to be ensured and stressed “the unacceptability” of the attacks
- The Italian statement said Saar had “guaranteed an immediate investigation” into the shell incident
ROME: Italy on Friday said an unexploded artillery shell hit the base of the Italian contingent in the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon and Israel promised to investigate.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani spoke with Israeli counterpart Gideon Saar and protested Israeli attacks against its personnel and infrastructure in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, an Italian statement said.
Tajani said the safety of the soldiers in UNIFIL had to be ensured and stressed “the unacceptability” of the attacks.
The Italian statement said Saar had “guaranteed an immediate investigation” into the shell incident.
Established by a UN Security Council resolution in 2006, the 10,000-strong UN mission is stationed in southern Lebanon to monitor hostilities along the “blue line” separating Lebanon from Israel.
Since Israel launched a ground campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah fighters at the end of September, UNIFIL has accused the Israel Defense Forces of deliberately attacking its bases, including by shooting at peacekeepers and destroying watch towers.
Lebanon rescuer picks up ‘pieces’ of father after Israel strike
- Karkaba then rushed back to the bombed civil defense center to search for her fellow first responders under the rubble
- Israel struck the center, the main civil defense facility in the eastern Baalbek area, while nearly 20 rescuers were still inside
DOURIS, Lebanon: Suzanne Karkaba and her father Ali were both civil defense rescuers whose job was to save the injured and recover the dead in Lebanon’s war.
When an Israeli strike killed him on Thursday and it was his turn to be rescued, there wasn’t much left. She had to identify him by his fingers.
Karkaba then rushed back to the bombed civil defense center to search for her fellow first responders under the rubble.
Israel struck the center, the main civil defense facility in the eastern Baalbek area, while nearly 20 rescuers were still inside, said Samir Chakia, a local official with the agency.
At least 14 civil defense workers were killed, he said.
“My dad was sleeping here with them. He helped people and recovered bodies to return them to their families... But now it’s my turn to pick up the pieces of my dad,” Karkaba told AFP with tears in her eyes.
Unlike many first-responder facilities previously targeted during the war, this facility in Douris, on the edge of Baalbek city, was state-run and had no political affiliation.
Israel’s military did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Friday morning, dozens of rescuers and residents were still rummaging through the wreckage of the center. Two excavators pulled broken slabs of concrete, twisted metal bars and red tiles.
Wearing her civil defense uniform at the scene, Karkaba said she had been working around-the-clock since Israel ramped up its air raids on Lebanon’s east in late September.
“I don’t know who to grieve anymore, the (center’s) chief, my father, or my friends of 10 years,” Karkaba said, her braided hair flowing in the wind.
“I don’t have the heart to leave the center, to leave the smell of my father... I’ve lost a part of my soul.”
Beginning on September 23, Israel escalated its air raids mainly on Hezbollah strongholds in east and south Lebanon, as well as south Beirut after nearly a year of cross-border exchanges of fire.
A week later Israel sent in ground troops to southern Lebanon.
More than 150 rescuers, most of them affiliated with Hezbollah and its allies, have been killed in more than a year of clashes, according to health ministry figures from late October.
Friday morning, rescuers in Douris were still pulling body parts from the rubble, strewn with dozens of paper documents, while Lebanese army troops stood guard near the site.
Civil defense worker Mahmoud Issa was among those searching for friends in the rubble.
“Does it get worse than this kind of strike against rescue teams and medics? We are among the first to... save people. But now, we are targets,” he said.
On Thursday, Lebanon’s health ministry said more than 40 people had been killed in Israeli strikes on the country’s south and east.
The ministry reported two deadly Israeli raids on emergency facilities in less than two hours that day: the one near Baalbek, and another on the south that killed four Hezbollah-affiliated paramedics.
The ministry urged the international community to “put an end to these dangerous violations.”
More than 3,400 people have been killed in Lebanon since the clashes began last year, according to the ministry, the majority of them since late September.
