DUBAI: Iranian authorities are concerned that nationwide unrest will undermine the clerical establishment and want to stamp out the protests quickly, senior regime officials say. But the person with the most to lose is President Hassan Rouhani.
While several senior officials said there was concern that prolonged unrest would damage the legitimacy and influence of the country’s religious leaders, few insiders see the unrest as an existential threat to that leadership, which has ruled since the 1979 revolution and is now controlled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the ultimate authority in Iran’s system of dual clerical and republican rule.
The biggest loser, they say, is likely to be Rouhani, who is much more closely tied to the country’s economic policies.
“Of course, Rouhani and his government will have less power afterward, especially because his economic policy was criticized during the unrest,” said political analyst Hamid Farahvashian.
“He will be a lame-duck president and Khamenei will have more power.”
Much of the protesters’ anger has focused on what Rouhani and his government have failed to deliver: An economic boom promised as the payoff for the 2015 deal that curbed Iran’s disputed nuclear program in return for world powers lifting sanctions.
Protesters are angry that Iran’s youth unemployment rate is edging toward 30 percent, want higher wages and an end to alleged graft. They have chanted slogans against all of Iran’s leaders, including the clerical elite, and attacked police vehicles, banks and mosques as the unrest widened.
“The continuation of the protests will lead to a legitimacy crisis,” said one senior official close to Rouhani, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.
“People have economic demands... of course these demands should be taken seriously... of course the establishment should listen to the people, but all these can be discussed in a calm atmosphere,” the official said.
Some conservatives have pushed for a hard-line approach, even though bloodshed could fuel more protests in the largest wave of demonstrations since nationwide unrest in 2009.
“So far, security forces have not tried to prevent the demonstrations... but this will change if (Khamenei) calls for an end to the street protests and demonstrators defy his call,” said one former Iranian official from the reformist camp.
Even if the unrest is quelled, the demands of tens of thousands of restless working-class youths who have taken to the streets are unlikely to dissipate.
Khamenei spoke publicly for the first time about the crisis on Tuesday, accusing Iran’s enemies of stirring unrest but saying no more. A statement on his website said he would address the nation about the events “when the time is right.”
The protesters have little chance of toppling the clerical leaders, who appear to be retaining control of the military, police, and security forces and have no compunction about using them, according to one US official following the developments.
Rouhani, who was elected in 2013, is more exposed. He is seen as a pragmatist at odds with Iran’s hard-liners and has said in response to the protests that Iranians have a right to criticize the authorities.
But he has a fight on his hands because of growing resentment over high prices and allegations of corruption.
“His power is limited in Iran’s ruling system. Public discontent is increasing ... people are losing their faith in the establishment system,” a third Iranian official said. “The leaders are well aware of this fact and its dangerous consequences.”
US officials fear the likeliest outcome of the protests is discrediting what one called Rouhani’s “moderate brand of moderation” and a harsher crackdown by the clerical authorities.
“It’s an open question whether Rouhani ever intended to keep any of his promises, but he hasn’t delivered, especially on the economic front, and that means he has no popular support and is expendable to Khamenei,” said a second US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.
“He’s likely to be one of the casualties, though maybe not immediately.”
Rouhani has blamed his predecessor and the US, Iran’s long-time adversary, for the economy’s shortcomings.
But his government has also backtracked on planned fuel price rises and promised more jobs.
Rouhani may need to spend more money to create more employment if he is to ease discontent and could risk antagonizing powerful interests if he tries to address allegations of corruption.
His vulnerability and the deep divisions in Iran’s hierarchy have fueled suspicions among some of his sympathizers that conservative rivals may have played a hand in the crisis.
“It was a coup against Rouhani and his achievements ... The aim was to harm Rouhani,” said Saeed Leylaz, a political analyst close to the pro-reform movement.
But a fourth official in Tehran said the nationwide protests had united Iran’s leadership.
“At this point, it is not important whether a political faction initiated the unrest to harm the rival group,” the official said. “The unrest was hijacked by our enemies ... that is why all factions have united to protect the Islamic Republic.”
Iran protests could hurt clerics but Rouhani has most to lose, say insiders
Iran protests could hurt clerics but Rouhani has most to lose, say insiders
Civilians killed, neighborhoods destroyed in fresh Israeli airstrikes on Beirut, Tyre
- Israeli warplanes launched more than 10 intermittent airstrikes on Saturday on buildings, whose residents had been warned half an hour before by the Israeli army to evacuate
- The number of strikes targeting the area in recent days has exceeded 30, reducing neighborhoods in Chiyah to rubble
BEIRUT: Toxic white dust hangs over the skies of Chiyah, the only area in Beirut’s southern suburbs where residents, until three days ago, clung to their homes, believing it was relatively safe from Israeli airstrikes.
Israeli warplanes launched more than 10 intermittent airstrikes on Saturday on buildings, whose residents had been warned half an hour before by the Israeli army to evacuate.
The number of strikes targeting the area in recent days has exceeded 30, reducing neighborhoods in Chiyah to rubble. Fires have consumed buildings that remain standing, despite the intense destruction caused by missile explosions.
Kamel, a lawyer and a resident of the area, initially hesitated to return to the neighborhood that he had fled less than an hour earlier.
He intended to check on his home after a strike hit a building adjacent to his own.
As Kamel tried to enter the area, all he could see were “piles of rubble that have changed the landmarks of the neighborhood where I was born and lived, a place where I knew the placement and color of every stone.”
Kamel, his eyes reddened by the pervasive smoke and his voice choked from the dust, said: “I do not understand why this neighborhood is being targeted. There is no Hezbollah presence here, only families who migrated from the countryside to the capital’s outskirts to live at the lowest possible cost.
“Who will compensate us? We do not belong to any party. Why all this destruction? How long will this go on? I am at retirement age; how can I rebuild what I lost today?”
Israeli raids on Saturday covered a significant number of targets, including a building near the headquarters of the Supreme Islamic Shia Council in Ghobeiri, as well as Burj Al-Barajneh, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiri and Bir Abed.
A raid destroyed four buildings on Abbas Al-Moussawi Street, and a building adjacent to the Haret Hreik municipality.
Safia, an 18-year-old resident, sustained a head injury from missile shrapnel. This was despite abiding by the Israeli evacuation warnings and remaining 500 meters from the targeted area. Safia was taking pictures on her phone at the time of the strike.
The increased hostilities that escalated in southern Lebanon have apparently halted the settlement talks that have taken place over the past two days, especially with the draft diplomatic solution received by Hezbollah.
Two paramedics were killed and four others were injured in a raid that targeted Hezbollah’s Islamic Health Organization in Kfar Tebnit.
Israeli warplanes carried out violent strikes against Tyre and its suburbs, where raids targeted the monuments area, Al-Hosh area and the industrial zone, injuring three people.
The raids destroyed houses in dozens of villages in Nabatieh, Tyre and Iklim Al-Teffah, and injured six people in Arnoun. Lebanon’s Civil Defense Forces pulled two victims from the rubble in Al-Ramadieh. Paramedics said that they had recovered five bodies.
An Israeli raid on a house in Qana in Iklim Al-Teffah Friday night killed citizen Nehmatallah Hussein Mallah, his wife and his three children.
Israeli forces continued their incursion into Lebanese territory in the town of Chamaa, 6 km from the southern border, under extensive fire cover.
Hezbollah reported that it engaged in confrontations with the Israeli army to the east of the Lebanese town of Markaba.
The Israeli army carried out the demolition of the Shimon Shrine in the town of Chamaa on Friday night.
Additionally, the headquarters of UNIFIL in the town was struck by an artillery shell.
Israeli army units made additional attempts to infiltrate the town of Ad-Dahira, as well as the axis of Tyre Harfa and Al-Jabeen.
This led to intense confrontations between Hezbollah and the Israeli forces, resulting in heavy Israeli artillery bombardment of these towns.
Hezbollah reported targeting of several Israeli sites, including the command center of the infantry battalion of the Eastern Brigade 769, located at the Ramim barracks, the Stella Maris naval base (a strategic site for maritime surveillance along the northern coast), the Shraga base (the administrative headquarters of the Golani Brigade) north of the city of Acre, and a gathering of soldiers at the newly established command center of the Western Brigade in the Yara barracks and the settlement of Kiryat Shmona.
Hezbollah launched an “aerial offensive using a swarm of attack drones targeting the headquarters of the special naval unit Shayetet 13 at the Atlit base, located south of Haifa. Additionally, an aerial assault was carried out with a group of attack drones on a gathering of soldiers in the settlement of Yeroam.”
Israeli media reported that there was a “power outage in several areas of Nahariya following the sound of sirens. This occurred after drone attacks and missile launches targeted Nahariya and the Galilee region from southern Lebanon. Additionally, a missile landed near a building in one of the towns in western Galilee.”
The Israeli military reported that it “detected the launch of 20 missiles from Lebanon, with some being intercepted, as well as four drones that were launched from Lebanon toward western Galilee in the morning.”
Young Libyans gear up for their first ever election
- Nearly 190,000 people are registered to vote in the areas where polling will take place
- In Misrata, Libya’s third-largest city, walls are covered with campaign posters of the candidates hoping to be elected
MISRATA, Libya: Young Libyans have mobilized for Saturday’s municipal elections, the first time many will vote in the fractured North African country where polls have been rare since Muammar Qaddafi’s 2011 overthrow.
“Elections are a new concept here,” said Radouane Erfida, 21, from Misrata, as he and other volunteers eagerly gave out leaflets and engaged with potential voters ahead of polling day.
“To help people accept and understand the process, we need awareness campaigns,” he told AFP.
The vast, oil-rich country of seven million people has struggled to recover from years of conflict after the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that put an end to four decades of rule under dictator Qaddafi.
Libya remains divided between a UN-recognized government based in the capital Tripoli and a rival administration in the east, backed by military strongman Khalifa Haftar.
Although being held in fewer than half of the country’s municipalities — 58 out of 142 — it is the first election in a decade to be held simultaneously in both eastern and western Libya.
Nearly 190,000 people are registered to vote in the areas where polling will take place.
In Misrata, Libya’s third-largest city, walls are covered with campaign posters of the candidates hoping to be elected.
“Your voice builds your municipality,” reads one placard put up by the High National Election Commission, which staged its own campaign to encourage a high turnout.
For Mohammed Al-Moher, a 25-year-old volunteer, restoring hope in Libya’s democratic process is essential.
“We are trying, through these elections and those to come, to revive people’s dreams... and to ensure that they go to the polls again and choose candidates whose vision matches theirs,” he told AFP.
Libya held its first free and fair elections in 2012 following an uprising inspired by the Arab Spring, which saw the end of more than 40 years under Qaddafi.
After two elections considered to have been successful, parliamentary elections in June 2014 were marred by a very low turnout because of ongoing violence.
There have been several municipal elections between 2019 and 2021 in a handful of cities, including the western city of Tripoli.
Presidential and parliamentary elections that had aimed to unify the fractured country were scheduled for late 2021 but then postponed indefinitely.
The Tripoli-based administration is headed by Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah, while in the east, parliament under the Haftar administration is based in Tobruk.
“We are tired of seeing old people monopolize politics. It’s time young people became involved in something other than the battlefield,” said Nouh Zagout, 29, a candidate in Misrata.
The country’s youth “have both the knowledge and the necessary ability to make a significant contribution to political life,” the pharmacist said.
But young Libyans who aspired to a seat at the table “are subject to a lot of criticism, particularly from their elders who judge them incapable of leading these institutions.”
Such attitudes, he said, are precisely what motivated him to stand for election.
Two Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders killed in Israel strike on Syria: source
- Abdel Aziz Minawi, a member of Islamic Jihad’s political bureau, and the group’s foreign relations chief Rasmi Abu Issa were killed in the strike on Qudsaya
- Israeli authorities, who rarely comment on individual strikes in Syria, claimed responsibility for the one on Thursday, saying they targeted Islamic JihaD
GAZA STRIP: Two senior Islamic Jihad figures were killed in an Israeli strike on Syria on Thursday, said a source from the Palestinian group which has fought against Israel in Gaza alongside Hamas.
The source told AFP on Saturday that Abdel Aziz Minawi, a member of Islamic Jihad’s political bureau, and the group’s foreign relations chief Rasmi Abu Issa were killed in the strike on Qudsaya, in the Damascus area.
The same source said the strike, targeting a building housing one of the group’s offices in Syria, also killed another Islamic Jihad member.
Israeli authorities, who rarely comment on individual strikes in Syria, claimed responsibility for the one on Thursday, saying they targeted Islamic Jihad.
Contacted by AFP on Saturday, Israel’s army however declined to comment on the two leaders’ deaths.
Israeli strikes on Thursday in and around Damascus killed 23 people, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor, which has a network of sources inside Syria.
Thirteen people, including civilians and Iran-backed fighters, were killed in a strike on the upscale Damascus district of Mazzeh, the Observatory said, adding that an attack on the capital’s outskirts killed 10 Islamic Jihad militants.
Syrian state media said Israel struck the Mazzeh district again on Friday.
Attacks blamed on or claimed by Israel have intensified in Syria, including in areas near the Lebanese border, mainly targeting bastions of the Lebanese movement Hezbollah.
Islamic Jihad still holds several Israeli hostages taken during the October 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel. Earlier this week, the group released two video clips of Sasha Trupanov, a 29-year-old Russian-Israeli hostage.
Religious Jews comfort hostages’ families in Tel Aviv
- “(We came) to meet them, to listen to them, show them that we support them,” says Odelia Dimant, wearing the traditional head covering of religious Jewish women
- It is the 33-year-old’s first time coming to the square, where she listens attentively to a cousin of Omer Neutra, a young soldier captured on October 7, 2023
TEL AVIV: Singing together in harmony, hundreds of religious Jews gather in a Tel Aviv square to listen to the devastated families of Israeli hostages held in Gaza for 13 months.
The paved area, now known as “Hostage Square,” welcomes the families of the captives — most taken from secular kibbutzim — for emotional gatherings every Saturday evening where they issue a rallying cry for their loved ones’ freedom: “A deal now!“
On Tuesdays, religious Jews attend to provide solace to the families.
“(We came) to meet them, to listen to them, show them that we support them,” says Odelia Dimant, wearing the traditional head covering of religious Jewish women.
It is the 33-year-old’s first time coming to the square, where she listens attentively to a cousin of Omer Neutra, a young soldier captured on October 7, 2023.
The crowd this Tuesday is mainly made up of women on the anniversary of Jewish matriarch Rachel’s death in the Hebrew calendar.
According to Jewish tradition, Rachel, who died in childbirth and was buried in Bethlehem, wept as she awaited the return of the exiled Jews.
In front of an attentive assembly, popular Orthodox speaker Yemima Mizrachi drew a parallel between Rachel’s tears and those of the hostages’ mothers.
Before the crowd gathers in front of the stage to listen to performers and sing along, the hostages’ families and religious Jews form small talking circles.
During Hamas’s October 7 attack, militants took 251 hostages back to the Gaza Strip. Of those, 97 are still held there, including 34 who have been confirmed dead.
The past 400 days have been agonizing for the families.
Ever since a truce deal allowed the release of more than 100 hostages in November 2023, negotiations aimed at securing another have been at a standstill, with hopes for more releases further dimmed after key interlocutor Qatar suspended its mediation between Israel and Hamas.
A collective formed on October 8, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, launched the regular gatherings at the esplanade of the Tel Aviv Museum of Art, later renamed Hostage Square by the city council.
“The idea behind these gatherings is unity, and it’s the path that I chose, that of dialogue, not shouting but sharing what I have been going through for more than a year,” says Galia David, whose 22-year-old son Evyatar David was kidnapped at the Nova music festival. More than 40 people were taken hostage at the same event.
The unity at Hostage Square moves her deeply, she says.
“The fact that they come here with different ideologies shows that they are here to listen to us, help us, support us.”
Between the stands selling yellow ribbons — a symbol of solidarity with the hostages — visitors take photos, including in front of a giant clock that counts the number of days, hours, minutes and seconds that have passed since October 7.
For Ditza Or, a religious woman and the mother of Israeli hostage Avinathan Or, the nights are “special.”
“I am moved to see this support,” she says. “Tonight is about unity and prayer. I feel people’s support all the time. I see so much love... The unity is real.”
The evening’s highlight is a prayer for the hostages’ release, recited by Shelly Shem Tov, whose son Omer is being held captive, and Shlomit Kalmanson, a woman in a head covering who lost her husband Elchanan during the fighting at Kibbutz Beeri on October 7.
Elchanan grabbed his weapon on that fateful day and, with his brother and nephew, went to the secular kibbutz close to Gaza to try and defend the civilians there.
They saved more than 100 people’s lives, but Elchanan did not survive.
“Shlomit and I are different, in our appearance, in our places of residence, certainly in our votes, but we have in common love and the ability to see the good,” Shem Tov said told the crowd, unable to hold back her tears, her hand on her friend’s shoulder.
“Our hearts are linked, each with her suffering, but beyond this suffering, we share hope.”
Israeli troops reach deepest point in Lebanon since October 1 invasion
- Media reports: Israeli ground forces pull back early Saturday after fierce battles with Hezbollah fighters
- Israeli troops earlier captured a strategic hill in the southern Lebanese village of Chamaa
BEIRUT: Israeli ground forces reached their deepest point in Lebanon since they invaded six weeks ago, before pulling back early Saturday after fierce battles with Hezbollah militants, Lebanese state media reported.
Israeli troops captured a strategic hill in the southern Lebanese village of Chamaa, about 5 kilometers (3 miles) from the Israeli border early Saturday, the state-run National News Agency reported. It said Israeli troops were later pushed back from the hill.
It added that Israeli troops detonated the Shrine of Shimon the Prophet in Chamaa as well as several homes before they withdrew, but the claim could not be immediately verified.
Israel’s military said in a statement that its troops “continue their limited, localized, and targeted operational activity in southern Lebanon.” The military did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the Lebanese media reports.
The push on the ground came as Israeli warplanes pounded Beirut’s southern suburbs as well as several other areas in southern Lebanon including the port city of Tyre.
The morning strike in Beirut hit an area known as Dahiyeh, which the Israeli military called a Hezbollah stronghold, saying its planes had hit multiple sites used by the militant group. Residents were given advance warning by Israel, and it was not immediately clear whether there were any casualties.
The increase of violence came as Lebanese and Hezbollah officials are studying a draft proposal presented by the US earlier this week on ending the war.
Since late September, Israel dramatically escalated its bombardment of Lebanon, vowing to cripple Hezbollah and end its barrages in Israel. More than 3,400 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli fire – 80 percent of them in the eight weeks – according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.
On Friday, Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister apparently urged Iran to try and convince Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire deal with Israel, which would require the group to pull back from the Israel-Lebanon border. The proposal is based on UN Security Council resolution 1701, which ended the last Israel-Hezbollah war in the summer of 2006.
A copy of the draft proposal was handed over earlier this week by the US ambassador to Lebanon to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who has been negotiating on behalf of Hezbollah, according to a Lebanese official. The official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak about the secret talks said Berri is expected to give Lebanon’s response on Monday.
Another Lebanese politician said Hezbollah officials had received the draft, were studying it and would express their opinion on it to Berri. The politician also spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media about the ongoing talks.
Berri told the pan-Arab Asharq Al-Awsat daily newspaper that the draft does not include any item that allows Israel to act in Lebanon if the deal is violated.
“We will not accept any infringement of our sovereignty,” Berri was quoted as saying.
He added that one of the items mentioned in the draft that Lebanon does not accept is the proposal to form a committee to supervise the agreement that includes members from Western countries.
Berri added that talks are ongoing regarding this point as well as other details in the draft, adding that “the atmosphere is positive but all relies on how things will end.”
There is also a push to end the war between Israel and Hamas, which began after Palestinian militants stormed into Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing about 1,200 people – mostly civilians – and abducting 250 others.
The UN Security Council’s 10 elected members on Thursday circulated a draft resolution demanding “an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire” in Gaza.
The US, Israel’s closest ally, holds the key to whether the UN Security Council adopts the resolution. The four other permanent members – Russia, China, Britain and France – are expected to support it or abstain.
Israel’s bombardment and ground offensives since the initial Hamas attack have killed more than 43,000 people in Gaza, Palestinian health officials say. The officials don’t distinguish between civilians and combatants but say more than half of those killed have been women and children.
