DUBAI: Since Dec. 28, tens of thousands of Iranians have protested in what is already the most serious domestic crisis the country has faced since the 2009 Green Movement.
A small anti-government protest organized in Mashhad — to capitalize on growing frustration, and denounce the recent 40 percent increase in the price of eggs and chicken — quickly spiraled out of control when it found an echo chamber among young and disheartened Iranians. Though the government was the initial target of many long-standing grievances, protesters soon focused their anger on Iran’s foreign policy.
Slogans such as “not Gaza, not Lebanon, I give my life for Iran,” “forget Palestine,” and “forget Syria and think about us” were often heard throughout the country. But contrary to what they suggest, these slogans do not target the government, but Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which is solely responsible for the country’s foreign policy in its immediate periphery.
As Iranians all know, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif does not decide Tehran’s policy toward Syria and President Bashar Assad; it is the domain of Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the IRGC.
The IRGC was created in 1979 to protect the new Islamic Republic from a counter-revolution. While the then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini appeared to have his eyes on the US and the UK, his primary concern was the Artesh — the regular army — that for decades received training and support from those same countries. The IRGC, set up as a counterweight against the less ideological Artesh, has been favored since then. It rapidly became Iran’s most crucial military actor as it runs the country’s ballistic missile program, and also progressively gained a prominent role in the economy.
The IRGC has often been accused of preventing the development of the Iranian private sector. Its omnipresence hampered the emergence of medium-size companies and the influx of foreign direct investments. Even President Hassan Rouhani criticized what he called the “government with a gun” and tried to limit its influence by diminishing the budget of the organization. But the supreme leader’s support and its other revenues drawn from the Iranian economy have thwarted Rouhani’s repeated attempts.
On numerous occasions, Iranians have voiced their frustration toward the IRGC’s foreign policy. While the organization considers Syria and Lebanon of paramount importance to the country’s strategic interests, it realized long ago it will not gain the support of the Iranian population for these distant causes.
The IRGC tried to win Iran’s hearts and minds. With relative success, it created the charismatic and romantic figure of the commander of Al-Quds Force Gen. Qassem Soleimani to attract young Iranians. The force is responsible for operations outside of Iran and is designated as a supporter of terrorist organizations by the US.
The IRGC also used its network of military bases to provide support after natural catastrophes, such as the recent earthquake which struck the western part of the country.
However, it did not prevent a growing frustration: The benefits of the nuclear deal that Iranians massively supported are not trickling down to the most impoverished fringe of the population. Despite hard-liners’ attempts to blame foreign powers, Iranians believe a corrupted minority is confiscating these benefits.
Beyond the IRGC, it is the regime it supports that is being criticized. The protests are revealing once again the fracture between the theocracy and a significant portion of Iranians. Slogans such as “you made Islam alive, but you made people poor” and “we don’t want the Islamic Republic, we don’t want it, we don’t want it” are a blow to the religious establishment. However, the Iranian institutions are resilient and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the current supreme leader, is impervious to criticism. More importantly, a majority of Iranians do not want the country to disintegrate into anarchy and follow the path of Syria, Iraq, and Libya.
The future of the protests is uncertain. Leaderless and disorganized, it does not yet represent a severe risk to the theocratic regime. The protests could, however, weaken president Rouhani’s position and his ability to deliver on the promises he made during his re-election campaign to revive the economy and decrease the unemployment rate.
The protests already have severe consequences for the Iranian government, and Rouhani’s embarrassment is palpable. While he attempts to manage popular expectations and conservatives’ red lines, the recent events might endanger the only thing Iranians expect from him: The revival of the economy.
France’s decision to postpone the upcoming trip to Tehran of its Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian is, therefore, a massive blow to the Iranian government as it was scheduled to organize the visit of the President Emmanuel Macron and the signing of many contracts with French companies. The protests will shake the resolve of other foreign investors; it might even succeed where Donald Trump has so far failed, in killing the nuclear agreement.
— Marc Martinez is an independent country risk analyst based in Dubai
IRGC is at the heart of protesters’ anger
IRGC is at the heart of protesters’ anger
Algerian expulsion of French officials ‘will have consequences’: French FM
Algeria’s foreign ministry said it had declared the 12 persona non grata
PARIS: France’s foreign minister on Tuesday slammed Algeria’s decision to expel 12 French officials and warned of a riposte, as tensions mounted between Paris and its former North African colony.
Jean-Noel Barrot said the move was “regrettable” and warned it “will not be without consequences,” adding that if “Algeria chooses escalation, we will respond with the greatest firmness.”
Algeria’s foreign ministry said it had declared the 12 persona non grata after the arrest in France of an Algerian consular official, a “vile act” it blamed on French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau.
For decades, ties between France and Algeria have gone through diplomatic upheavals, and the fresh row comes at a delicate time in relations, underscoring the difficulties in repairing ties.
On Friday, French prosecutors indicted three Algerians, including a consular official, on suspicion of involvement in the 2024 abduction of an opponent of the Algerian government, Amir Boukhors, in a Paris suburb.
The men, who are also being prosecuted for “terrorist” conspiracy, were placed in pre-trial detention.
Lebanon says Israeli strike on south kills one
- A “drone strike carried out by the Israeli enemy on a vehicle in the town of Aitarun killed one person ,” the health ministry said
- Israel has continued to strike Lebanon since the November 27 ceasefire
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s health ministry said an Israeli strike killed one person in the country’s south on Tuesday, the latest such attack despite a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
A “drone strike carried out by the Israeli enemy on a vehicle in the town of Aitarun killed one person and wounded three others including a child,” the health ministry said in a statement.
Israel has continued to strike Lebanon since the November 27 ceasefire that largely halted more than a year of hostilities with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group, including two months of all-out war.
The United Nations Human Rights Office said Tuesday that at least 71 civilians have been killed by Israeli forces in Lebanon since the ceasefire came into effect.
The truce accord was based on a UN Security Council resolution that says Lebanese troops and United Nations peacekeepers should be the only forces in south Lebanon, and calls for the disarmament of all non-state groups.
Under the truce, Hezbollah was to withdraw fighters from south of Lebanon’s Litani River and dismantle any remaining military infrastructure there.
Israel was to pull out all its forces from south Lebanon, but it continues to hold five positions that it deems “strategic.”
Lebanon’s army has been deploying in the south near the border as Israeli forces have withdrawn and has been dismantling Hezbollah sites.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said in an interview Monday with Qatari broadcaster Al Jazeera that the army was “dismantling tunnels and warehouses and confiscating weapons bases” south of the Litani “with great professionalism and without any problem from Hezbollah.”
He also said the army was “carrying out its duties north of the Litani,” noting the army had located a warehouse in Jiyeh, around 20 kilometers (12 miles) south of Beirut and “confiscated its contents,” without specifying what, as well as carrying out activities in locations in east Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.
“Even what the army is doing in some places north of the Litani, there has been no objection to, which is also a positive sign,” Aoun added.
A source close to Hezbollah told AFP on Saturday that the group had ceded to the Lebanese army around 190 of its 265 military positions identified south of the Litani.
Also Monday, the Lebanese military said a soldier was killed and three others wounded in an explosion in the country’s south, where Aoun said they had been dismantling mines in a tunnel.
Syria leader in Qatar for first time since Assad’s fall
- Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani met Syria’s interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa on his arrival
- Qatar was one of the first Arab countries to back the armed rebellion led by Al-Sharaa
DOHA: Syria’s new president arrived in Qatar on Tuesday, state media said, for his first official visit to the Gulf state, a key backer of the new administration after longtime ruler Bashar Assad’s ouster.
The official Qatar News Agency reported Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani met Syria’s interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa on his arrival at Doha’s Hamad International Airport.
Earlier, Syria’s foreign minister posted on X that he was accompanying Sharaa on his “first presidential visit to the country that has stood by Syrians from day one and has never abandoned them.”
Sharaa and Shaibani’s Qatar trip comes on the heels of a Sunday visit to the United Arab Emirates, where they met Emirati President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, who expressed his country’s support for Syria’s reconstruction.
Sharaa’s Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham led the alliance that ousted Assad from power on December 8.
His new administration has received support from several countries including key backers Turkiye and Qatar, as well as multiple Arab states.
Qatar was one of the first Arab countries to back the armed rebellion that erupted after Assad’s government crushed a peaceful uprising in 2011. Unlike other Arab nations, Doha did not restore diplomatic ties with Syria under Assad.
The new authorities have engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity since taking power, and Sharaa has visited several Arab countries as well as Turkiye.
Meanwhile, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun departed Beirut on Tuesday for Doha, his office said, on his first visit to the Gulf country since his January election.
“The visit will continue until tomorrow afternoon, Wednesday, and will include a bilateral meeting between President Aoun and the Emir of Qatar, as well as expanded talks involving both the Qatari and Lebanese delegations,” Aoun’s presidential office said.
A day earlier, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam met with Sharaa in Damascus in an effort to reboot ties between the two neighbors.
Beirut and Damascus have been seeking to improve relations since the overthrow of Assad, whose family dynasty exercised control over Lebanese affairs for decades and has been accused of assassinating numerous officials in Lebanon who expressed opposition to its rule.
Middle East analyst Andreas Krieg said since the fall of the Assad government, Qatar had emerged as “the most important interlocutor with the Al-Sharaa government in the Arab world, at least after Turkiye.”
He said the gas-rich Gulf emirate was a “diplomatic force multiplier to the Al-Sharaa government in Syria” and would be able to connect Syrians back to Lebanon “which is, for both countries, extremely important.”
Sheikh Tamim visited Damascus in January, becoming the first head of state to visit since Assad’s ouster.
Doha has pledged to support the rehabilitation of Syria’s infrastructure, and in January announced an agreement to provide Syria with 200 megawatts of power, gradually increasing production.
Syrian authorities are seeking assistance including from wealthy Gulf states for reconstruction after nearly 14 years of war.
Qatar is one of the providers of financial and in-kind support to the Lebanese army and pledged support for reconstruction in February after the recent confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel.
Sudan war drains life from once-thriving island in capital’s heart
- The war has devastated the nation, killed tens of thousands and uprooted 13 million
- Tuti Island has been devastated by two years of war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces
KHARTOUM: An island in the middle of Sudan’s capital that used to draw crowds to its Nile River farms now stands nearly deserted after two years of war, its homes ransacked and once-lush fields left fallow.
Nestled at the confluence of the Blue and White Nile rivers, Tuti Island has been devastated by two years of war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), with residents subjected to violence and looting.
When fighting broke out on April 15, 2023, RSF fighters swiftly captured the crescent-shaped island, forcing residents to flee in panic.
“They fled in feluccas (sailing boats), leaving everything behind,” said Youssef Al-Naim, 67, one of the handful of residents who never left.
The war has devastated the nation, killed tens of thousands and uprooted 13 million, according to the United Nations.
At the beginning of the war, the RSF had gained control of wide swathes of the capital, outflanking the army in the north and south, before the tides turned in the army’s favor earlier this year.
The island, accessible only by a single suspension bridge, was cut off and besieged by the RSF since the war began.
Residents were deprived of food, electricity and safe drinking water, even before fighters descended on the island.
“We used to carry water from a well for washing and drink from the Nile,” Naim said.
“Sometimes we couldn’t reach the river and drank the well water, which made people sick.”
Those able to pay for passage, fled in sailing boats and then the back of lorries, headed east.
“Every day, 10 or more people would leave,” Naim recalled as he sat on a tattered fabric chair.
Tuti island was once known as “Khartoum’s garden” for its verdant fields of beans, arugula and fruit trees that supplied much of the capital’s produce.
Now, the eight-square-kilometer (three-square-mile) floating patch, overlooking Khartoum, Omdurman and Bahri (Khartoum North) which form the greater Sudanese capital, appears nearly lifeless.
“For nearly two years, I haven’t seen a single tomato,” Naim said.
An AFP team that visited the island after the army retook it in March saw signs of the sudden exodus.
Doors hung ajar, children’s toys were scattered across the ground and shredded fabric fluttered through the ruins.
On March 22, Sudan’s army regained control of the Tuti bridge as part of its broader offensive to retake Khartoum. Within a week, Burhan declared the capital “free.”
But the scars of two years of war run deep, with RSF fighters accused of subjecting civilians to indiscriminate violence.
“They beat children, the elderly and even pregnant women,” Abdel Hai Hamza, another resident, told AFP.
Witnesses also described systematic looting, with fighters raiding homes in search of gold jewelry, cash and weapons.
“They had to leave houses with something,” added Hamza, 33.
The conflict has decimated Sudan’s infrastructure, crumbled an already weak economy and pushed millions to the brink of mass starvation.
In Khartoum alone, at least 3.5 million have been displaced while 100,000 are suffering from famine-levels of hunger, according to the UN.
Both the army and the RSF have been accused of war crimes, but the paramilitary in particular has become notorious for allegedly committing systematic sexual violence, ethnic cleansing and massive looting.
Now, with the bridge to Tuti reopened and RSF fighters pushed out, some residents are making their way back, determined to rebuild their lives.
“Residents are trying to restore electricity,” after cables were cut by the RSF, said Sherif Al-Tayeb, a former resident of Tuti who now lives abroad and still has close friends among the island’s residents.
Despite the devastation, small groups of civilians clean the streets with shovels and buckets, while dump trucks haul away the remnants of their shattered lives.
UN says Israel killed 71 civilians in Lebanon since ceasefire
- “Among the victims are 14 women and 9 children,” Al-Kheetan said, urging that “the violence must stop immediately“
GENEVA: Israeli forces have killed dozens of civilians in Lebanon since a ceasefire took effect late last year, including a number of women and children, the United Nations said Tuesday.
The UN rights office reported that Israeli military operations had killed and injured civilians in Lebanon in the four months since the fragile truce between Israel and Hezbollah on November 27.
“According to our initial review, at least 71 civilians have been killed by Israeli forces in Lebanon since the ceasefire came into effect,” rights office spokesman Thameen Al-Kheetan told reporters in Geneva.
“Among the victims are 14 women and 9 children,” he said, urging that “the violence must stop immediately.”
The delicate truce between Israel and Hezbollah came after more than a year of hostilities initiated by the Iran-backed militant group over the Gaza conflict, including two months of all-out war when Israel also sent in ground troops.
But months after the agreed end to fighting, Kheetan warned that people in Lebanon “people remain gripped by fear, and over 92,000 are still displaced from their homes.”
The rights office noted that Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory had hit civilian infrastructure since the ceasefire, including residential buildings, medical facilities, roads and at least one cafe.
The southern suburbs of Beirut were also hit in early April for the first time since the ceasefire took effect, in two different incidents, Kheetan said, adding that the area targeted was near two schools.
“A strike on a residential building in the early morning of April 1 killed two civilians and caused significant damage to neighboring buildings,” he said.
Two days later, “Israeli airstrikes hit a newly established medical center run by the Islamic Health Society in Naqoura in southern Lebanon, completely destroying the center and damaging two ambulances,” he said.
He added that “multiple Israeli airstrikes on several towns in the south of Lebanon reportedly killed at least six people” between April 4 and 8.
Israel had also faced attacks since the truce took effect, Kheetan said.
Since last November, at least five rockets, two mortars and a drone were launched from Lebanon toward northern Israel, he said, citing figures from the Israeli army, adding that “tens of thousands of Israelis are still reportedly displaced from the north.”
Kheetan demanded that all parties to the conflict “respect international humanitarian law, including the principles of distinction, proportionality and precaution.”
“There must be prompt, independent and impartial investigations into all allegations of serious violations of international humanitarian law, and those found responsible must be held to account.”
