DUBAI: Since Dec. 28, tens of thousands of Iranians have protested in what is already the most serious domestic crisis the country has faced since the 2009 Green Movement.
A small anti-government protest organized in Mashhad — to capitalize on growing frustration, and denounce the recent 40 percent increase in the price of eggs and chicken — quickly spiraled out of control when it found an echo chamber among young and disheartened Iranians. Though the government was the initial target of many long-standing grievances, protesters soon focused their anger on Iran’s foreign policy.
Slogans such as “not Gaza, not Lebanon, I give my life for Iran,” “forget Palestine,” and “forget Syria and think about us” were often heard throughout the country. But contrary to what they suggest, these slogans do not target the government, but Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which is solely responsible for the country’s foreign policy in its immediate periphery.
As Iranians all know, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif does not decide Tehran’s policy toward Syria and President Bashar Assad; it is the domain of Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the IRGC.
The IRGC was created in 1979 to protect the new Islamic Republic from a counter-revolution. While the then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini appeared to have his eyes on the US and the UK, his primary concern was the Artesh — the regular army — that for decades received training and support from those same countries. The IRGC, set up as a counterweight against the less ideological Artesh, has been favored since then. It rapidly became Iran’s most crucial military actor as it runs the country’s ballistic missile program, and also progressively gained a prominent role in the economy.
The IRGC has often been accused of preventing the development of the Iranian private sector. Its omnipresence hampered the emergence of medium-size companies and the influx of foreign direct investments. Even President Hassan Rouhani criticized what he called the “government with a gun” and tried to limit its influence by diminishing the budget of the organization. But the supreme leader’s support and its other revenues drawn from the Iranian economy have thwarted Rouhani’s repeated attempts.
On numerous occasions, Iranians have voiced their frustration toward the IRGC’s foreign policy. While the organization considers Syria and Lebanon of paramount importance to the country’s strategic interests, it realized long ago it will not gain the support of the Iranian population for these distant causes.
The IRGC tried to win Iran’s hearts and minds. With relative success, it created the charismatic and romantic figure of the commander of Al-Quds Force Gen. Qassem Soleimani to attract young Iranians. The force is responsible for operations outside of Iran and is designated as a supporter of terrorist organizations by the US.
The IRGC also used its network of military bases to provide support after natural catastrophes, such as the recent earthquake which struck the western part of the country.
However, it did not prevent a growing frustration: The benefits of the nuclear deal that Iranians massively supported are not trickling down to the most impoverished fringe of the population. Despite hard-liners’ attempts to blame foreign powers, Iranians believe a corrupted minority is confiscating these benefits.
Beyond the IRGC, it is the regime it supports that is being criticized. The protests are revealing once again the fracture between the theocracy and a significant portion of Iranians. Slogans such as “you made Islam alive, but you made people poor” and “we don’t want the Islamic Republic, we don’t want it, we don’t want it” are a blow to the religious establishment. However, the Iranian institutions are resilient and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the current supreme leader, is impervious to criticism. More importantly, a majority of Iranians do not want the country to disintegrate into anarchy and follow the path of Syria, Iraq, and Libya.
The future of the protests is uncertain. Leaderless and disorganized, it does not yet represent a severe risk to the theocratic regime. The protests could, however, weaken president Rouhani’s position and his ability to deliver on the promises he made during his re-election campaign to revive the economy and decrease the unemployment rate.
The protests already have severe consequences for the Iranian government, and Rouhani’s embarrassment is palpable. While he attempts to manage popular expectations and conservatives’ red lines, the recent events might endanger the only thing Iranians expect from him: The revival of the economy.
France’s decision to postpone the upcoming trip to Tehran of its Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian is, therefore, a massive blow to the Iranian government as it was scheduled to organize the visit of the President Emmanuel Macron and the signing of many contracts with French companies. The protests will shake the resolve of other foreign investors; it might even succeed where Donald Trump has so far failed, in killing the nuclear agreement.
— Marc Martinez is an independent country risk analyst based in Dubai
IRGC is at the heart of protesters’ anger
IRGC is at the heart of protesters’ anger
Iran reserves right to react to Israeli airstrikes, welcomes Lebanon ceasefire
- Asked whether the ceasefire could lead to an easing of tensions between Israel and Iran, Araghchi said: “It depends on the behavior of Israel“
- “Of course, we reserve the right to react to the recent Israeli aggression, but we do consider all developments in the region“
LISBON: Tehran reserves the right to react to Israeli airstrikes last month on Iran but also bears in mind other developments in the region, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday.
Araghchi told reporters during a trip to Lisbon that Iran welcomed Tuesday’s ceasefire agreement in Lebanon and hoped it could lead to a permanent ceasefire. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah came into effect on Wednesday under an agreement brokered by the United States and France.
Asked whether the ceasefire could lead to an easing of tensions between Israel and Iran, he said: “It depends on the behavior of Israel.”
“Of course, we reserve the right to react to the recent Israeli aggression, but we do consider all developments in the region,” he said.
Israel struck targets in Iran on Oct. 26 in retaliation for an Iranian missile barrage against Israel on Oct. 1.
Ali Larijani, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said in an interview published by Iran’s Tasnim news agency on Sunday that his country was preparing to “respond” to Israel.
Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday Hezbollah had been “set back decades,” Araghchi said the armed group had not been weakened by Israel’s killing of many of its leaders since January and by its ground offensive against the group since early October.
Hezbollah has been able to reorganize itself and fight back effectively, Araghchi said.
“This is the main reason why Israel accepted the ceasefire...every time they (Hezbollah) lose their leaders or their commanders, they become bigger in both numbers and their strength,” he said.
His remarks echoed comments by a senior Hezbollah official, Hassan Fadlallah, who said the group would emerge from the war stronger and more numerous.
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire holds in first hours, Lebanese civilians start to return home
- Families return to their homes in the most heavily bombed ares of Lebanon
- Lebanon’s army says it was preparing to deploy to the south of the country as part of ceasefire agreement
BEIRUT: A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah held on Wednesday after the two sides struck a deal brokered by the US and France, a rare feat of diplomacy in the Middle East wracked by two wars and several proxy conflicts for over a year.
The agreement ended the deadliest confrontation between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group in years but Israel is still fighting its other arch foe the Palestinian militant group Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Lebanon’s army, tasked with ensuring the ceasefire lasts, said it was preparing to deploy to the south of the country, a region Israel heavily bombarded in its battle against Hezbollah, along with eastern cities and towns and the armed group’s stronghold in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Cars and vans piled high with mattresses, suitcases and even furniture streamed through the heavily-bombed southern port city of Tyre, heading south. Fighting had escalated drastically over the past two months, forcing hundreds of thousands of Lebanese from their homes.
Israel’s military said on Wednesday its forces were still on Lebanese territory and urged residents of southern Lebanese villages who had been ordered to evacuate in recent months to delay returning home until further notice from the Israeli military. Israeli troops have pushed around 6 km (4 miles) into Lebanon in a series of ground incursions launched in September.
Israel said it identified Hezbollah operatives returning to areas near the border and had opened fire to prevent them from coming closer. There were no immediate signs that the incident would undermine the ceasefire.
The agreement, which promises to end a conflict across the Israeli-Lebanese border that has killed thousands of people since it was ignited by the Gaza war last year, is a major achievement for the US in the waning days of President Joe Biden’s administration.
Diplomatic efforts will now turn to shattered Gaza, where Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas, which led the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israeli communities.
Israel has said its military aim in Lebanon had been to ensure the safe return of about 60,000 Israelis who fled from their communities along the northern border when Hezbollah started firing rockets at them in support of Hamas in Gaza.
In Lebanon, some cars flew national flags, others honked, and one woman could be seen flashing the victory sign with her fingers as people started to return to homes they had fled.
Many of the villages the people were likely returning to have been destroyed.
Hussam Arrout, a father of four said he was itching to return to his home.
“The Israelis haven’t withdrawn in full, they’re still on the edge. So we decided to wait until the army announces that we can go in. Then we’ll turn the cars on immediately and go to the village,” he said.
Announcing the ceasefire, Biden spoke at the White House on Tuesday shortly after Israel’s security cabinet approved the agreement in a 10-1 vote.
“This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities,” Biden said. “What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again.”
Israel will gradually withdraw its forces over 60 days as Lebanon’s army takes control of territory near its border with Israel to ensure that Hezbollah does not rebuild its infrastructure there after a costly war, Biden said.
He said his administration was also pushing for an elusive ceasefire in Gaza.
Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters that the group “appreciates” Lebanon’s right to reach an agreement which protects its people, and hopes for a deal to end the Gaza war.
National security adviser Jake Sullivan said the US would start its renewed push for a Gaza ceasefire on Wednesday.
But without a similar agreement yet in Gaza, many residents said they felt abandoned.
“We hope that all Arab and Western countries, and all people with merciful hearts and consciences...implement a truce here because we are tired,” said displaced Gazan Malak Abu Laila.
Egypt and Qatar, which along with the United States have tried unsuccessfully to mediate a ceasefire in Gaza, welcomed the Lebanon truce. Qatar’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday it hoped it would lead to a similar agreement to end the Gaza war.
Iran, which backs Hezbollah and Hamas as well as the Houthis that have attacked Israel from Yemen, said it also welcomed the ceasefire.
Israel has dealt a series of blows to Hezbollah, notably the assassination of its veteran leader Hassan Nasrallah.
The Israeli military said on Wednesday Israeli forces fired at several vehicles with suspects to prevent them from reaching a no-go zone in Lebanese territory and the suspects moved away.
Defense Minister Israel Katz said he instructed the military to “act firmly and without compromise” should it happen again.
Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah said that the militant Lebanese group would retain the right to defend itself if Israel attacked.
The ceasefire would give the Israeli army an opportunity to rest and replenish supplies, and isolate Hamas, said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“We have pushed them (Hezbollah) decades back. We eliminated Nasrallah, the axis of the axis. We have taken out the organization’s top leadership, we have destroyed most of their rockets and missiles,” he said.
‘Shaking with cold’: tourists from Egypt boat sinking brought ashore
- Egypt released video footage Wednesday of the latest tourists rescued from a boat that capsized off the country’s Red Sea coast, where at least four people lost their lives
CAIRO: Egypt released video footage Wednesday of the latest tourists rescued from a boat that capsized off the country’s Red Sea coast, where at least four people lost their lives.
Seven people remain missing more than two days after the “Sea Story” was struck by a wave and overturned in the middle of the night.
The vessel had set off Sunday from Port Ghalib, near Marsa Alam in the southeast, on a multi-day diving trip with 31 tourists — mostly Europeans, along with Chinese and US nationals — and a 13-member crew.
Thirty-three were rescued, including tourists seen in the video stepping off a speedboat, draped in blankets, at a marina near Marsa Alam.
“We were shaking with cold,” one unidentified man said in the footage.
The tourists who appeared in the video had spent at least 24 hours inside a cabin of the overturned vessel before rescuers found them Tuesday morning, according to a government source close to the rescue operations.
Egyptian authorities rescue 28 people after a tourist boat on a diving trip sank off the Red Sea coast; the search continues for the 17 remaining passengers and crew https://t.co/ePmCnFBAf1 pic.twitter.com/kdATWhQv1S
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 25, 2024
A military-led team on Tuesday rescued two Belgians, one Swiss national, one Finnish tourist and one Egyptian, authorities said.
Two survivors — one identified by authorities on camera as an Egyptian — were rolled out on stretchers, one of them conscious and speaking.
A Belgian tourist sobbed when she was greeted by an Egyptian general.
Red Sea governor Amr Hanafi said the boat capsized “suddenly and quickly within five-seven minutes” after being struck by a strong wave in the middle of the night, leaving some passengers unable to escape their cabins.
The Sea Story had been due to dock on Friday at the tourist resort of Hurghada, about 200 kilometers (124 miles) north of Marsa Alam.
Authorities in Egypt have said the vessel was fully licensed and had passed all inspection checks. A preliminary investigation showed no technical fault.
There were at least two similar boat accidents in the Marsa Alam area earlier this year. There were no fatalities.
The Red Sea coast is a major tourist destination in Egypt.
Dozens of dive boats crisscross between Red Sea coral reefs and islands off Egypt’s eastern coast every day, where safety regulations are robust but unevenly enforced.
World reacts to Lebanon war ceasefire
PARIS: World leaders have welcomed a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which came into force on Wednesday morning (0200 GMT).
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will protect Israel from the threat of Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah and create the conditions for a “lasting calm,” US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron said ahead of the truce coming into force.
“The announcement today will cease the fighting in Lebanon, and secure Israel from the threat of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations operating from Lebanon,” the leaders said in a joint statement.
The United States and France will work “to ensure this arrangement is fully implemented” and lead international efforts for “capacity-building” of the Lebanese army, they added.
Biden welcomed the deal as “good news” and also said the US would lead a fresh effort to secure a truce between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza.
Macron said the Lebanon ceasefire should “open the path” for an ending to the war in Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked the US president for his “involvement in securing the ceasefire agreement.”
He told Biden in a call that he appreciated the US leader’s “understanding that Israel will maintain its freedom of action in enforcing it,” according to Netanyahu’s office.
Ahead of Israel’s approval of the deal, Netanyahu said the “length of the ceasefire depends on what happens in Lebanon” and the truce would allow Israel to “intensify” pressure on Hamas and focus on the “Iranian threat.”
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said the ceasefire was a “fundamental step” toward restoring stability in the region.
Thanking France and the US for their involvement, Mikati also reiterated his government’s commitment to “strengthen the army’s presence in the south.”
Iran, a backer of both Hezbollah and Hamas, welcomed the end of Israel’s “aggression” in Lebanon, after the ceasefire came into force.
“Welcoming the news” of the end of Israel’s “aggression against Lebanon,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said, stressing Iran’s “firm support for the Lebanese government, nation and resistance.”
Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said the group “appreciates” Lebanon’s right to reach an agreement that protects its people, and it hopes for a deal to end the war in Gaza.
“Hamas appreciates the right of Lebanon and Hezbollah to reach an agreement that protects the people of Lebanon and we hope that this agreement will pave the way to reaching an agreement that ends the war of genocide against our people in Gaza,” Abu Zuhri told Reuters.
China said it was “paying close attention to the current situation in Lebanon and Israel.”
“We support all efforts conducive to easing tensions and achieving peace and welcome the agreement reached by relevant parties on a ceasefire,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock welcomed the deal, hailing it as “a ray of hope for the entire region.”
“People on both sides of the border want to live in genuine and lasting security,” Baerbock said, calling the deal “a success for diplomacy.”
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer praised a “long overdue” ceasefire that would “provide some measure of relief to the civilian populations” of both Israel and Lebanon.
Calling for the truce to be “turned into a lasting political solution in Lebanon,” Starmer vowed to be at the “forefront of efforts to break the ongoing cycle of violence in pursuit of a long-term, sustainable peace in the Middle East.”
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen hailed the “very encouraging news” of the ceasefire, saying it would increase Lebanon’s “internal security and stability.”
The announcement was welcome news “first and foremost for the Lebanese and Israeli people affected by the fighting,” Von der Leyen said.
“Lebanon will have an opportunity to increase internal security and stability thanks to Hezbollah’s reduced influence,” she said.
A top UN official welcomed the ceasefire agreement, but warned that “considerable work lies ahead” to implement the deal.
“Nothing less than the full and unwavering commitment of both parties is required,” said UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert.
Jordan said the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah should prompt greater international efforts to bring an end to the war in Gaza.
In an official statement, the kingdom said the move was also a first step towards reversing a dangerous escalation of tensions across the region that had threatened peace and security.
Iraq welcomed the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, calling on the international community to act urgently to end Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza.
A foreign ministry statement called for “multiplying international efforts to avoid any new escalation” along the Israel-Lebanon border, while also urging “serious, urgent steps to stop the continued massacres and violations against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.”
Turkey said that it was ready to give Lebanon the “necessary support for the establishment of internal peace” hours after a ceasefire with Israel came into force.
The Palestinian Authority welcomed the 60-day ceasefire in Lebanon and expressed hope it would bring stability to the region.
“We hope that this step will contribute to stopping the violence and instability that the region is suffering from,” the Palestinian presidency said in a statement, and highlighted the need to enforce a UN resolution for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
Russia gave a belated welcome to Wednesday’s ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, saying it hoped the agreement would be “actually effective.”
“We look favorably on any agreement, potential or concluded, that would stop the spiral of violence, stop the bloodshed in Lebanon... but they have to be actually effective,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Wednesday in a briefing.
Israeli strikes on Gaza Strip leave 15 dead, medics say
- Eight Palestinians were killed and dozens of others wounded in an Israeli strike that hit the Al-Tabeaeen School
- In the Shejaia suburb of Gaza City, another strike killed four people, while three people were killed in an Israeli air strike in Beit Lahiya
CAIRO: Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip killed 15 people on Wednesday, some of them in a school housing displaced people, medics in Gaza said, adding that the fatalities included two sons of a former Hamas spokesman.
Health officials in the Hamas-run enclave said eight Palestinians were killed and dozens of others wounded in an Israeli strike that hit the Al-Tabeaeen School, which was sheltering displaced families in Gaza City. Among those killed were two sons of former Hamas spokesman, Fawzi Barhoum, according to medics and Barhoum himself.
In the Shejaia suburb of Gaza City, another strike killed four people, while three people were killed in an Israeli air strike in Beit Lahiya on the northern edge of the enclave where army forces have been operating since last month.
Separately, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah came into effect on Wednesday after both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the US and France, a rare victory for diplomacy in a region shaken by two wars for over a year.
Iran-backed Hezbollah militants began firing missiles at Israel in solidarity with Hamas after the Palestinian militant group attacked Israel in October of 2023, killing around 1,200 people and capturing over 250 hostages, Israel has said, triggering the Gaza war.
Israel’s 13-month campaign in Gaza has left nearly 44,200 people dead and displaced nearly all the enclave’s population at least once, according to Gaza health officials.
Months of attempts to negotiate a ceasefire have yielded scant progress and negotiations are now on hold, with mediator Qatar saying it has told the two warring parties it would suspend its efforts until the sides are prepared to make concessions.
