LONDON: Civil unrest has flared in Iran even as it powered out of recession following the easing of international sanctions last year.
But economic recovery hasn’t yet fed through to the mass of the people, experts told Arab News.
Sanam Vakil, associate fellow at Chatham House said: “After negative growth, Iranian GDP was at 7 percent in 2016/17, 6 percent driven by hydrocarbon exports.”
Iran is energy-rich, holding the world’s fourth-largest proved crude oil reserves and second-largest when it comes to natural gas, said the US Energy Information Administration.
And yet, despite its lavish endowment of oil and gas, the energy premium had not kicked in — “we should expect a ‘trickle down effect’ that will take time, said Vakil.
The protests were about increased expectations following the nuclear deal which was “oversold” to the Iranian populace, she added.
“It wasn’t as impactful as people thought it would be,” said Vakil.
There was a lack of acknowledgement that there would continue to be a number of obstacles as result of secondary US sanctions.
A paper from London-based BMI Research, emailed to Arab News said: “Inflation has declined substantially since president Hassan Rouhani entered office in 2013 — but it remains elevated, standing at 9.6 percent year-on-year in November (up from 8.4 percent in October).”
BMI adds: “Unemployment, meanwhile, has risen as upticks in hydrocarbon exports and foreign investment have failed to spur large-scale job creation: it was officially recorded at 12.6 percent of the labor force in July, but is widely assumed to be significantly higher.”
According to BMI, Iranians’ expectations for economic conditions to improve on the back of the 2015 nuclear deal and 2016 lifting of most international sanctions have not been met.
Many (particularly in the more rural areas of the country) perceive the political establishment to be highly corrupt, and not acting in the best interest of ordinary Iranians, said BMI.
Vakil said the Iranian government faces “political obstacles and need to be communicating more.”
“Rouhani is trying to curb corruption, and make institutions more transparent. But some of these institutions are pushing back. There are tensions, the government is running up against clerical foundations … people that account for quite a big percentage of government budget, but don’t want any strings attached [such as transparency],” said Vakil.
Additionally, Rouhani had to pursue banking reform because Iranian banks have a massive percentage of non-performing loans, she said.
A 2017 International Monetary Fund (IMF) report said global banks still face an extremely high compliance burden to do business with Iran.
How can Iran better ramp-up its energy resources to spread prosperity? Vakil said Iranian gas hasn’t really taken off and needs massive investment.
The IMF pointed out that Iran’s natural gas sector had been expanding, but production growth had been lower than expected as a result of the lack of foreign investment and technology.
Located offshore in the Gulf, the South Pars natural gas field holds almost 40 percent of Iran’s gas reserves, but it is being developed mostly by Iranian companies because most international companies have pulled out. The IMF said development has been faced numerous delays.
When it comes to oil, there are several factors at play. Prices are weak, and as the second largest member of OPEC, Iran must comply with production cuts agreed last year. On the other hand, like other countries, it is seeking to boost income from outside the energy sector to cut its dependance on hydrocarbons.
Iran shipped 777 million barrels of crude last year, the state news agency Shana said recently in a report used by Reuters. The same report said Iran had he country exported 490,000 barrels per day of gas condensate.
The combined daily exports of crude oil and condensate were said to be on a par with what the country used to export in oil and condensate before the imposition of economic sanctions because of its nuclear program, according to Shana.
An IMF mission to Iran in December 2017 found that growth had begun to broaden to the non-oil sector.
“Real GDP growth is projected to reach 4.2 percent in 2017/18 and is expected to be sustained or even rise toward 4.5 percent over the medium-term if financial sector reform takes hold,” said the IMF.
But the IMF also argued for faster implementation of structural reforms, completion of anti-money laundering/combating the financing of terrorism reforms, and the removal of obstacles to private sector development that would allow growth to become more diversified, resilient and job intensive.
Credit institutions and banks needed urgent restructuring and recapitalization, it added.
“Despite recent improvements in the business environment, Iran needed to reduce red tape, reform state-owned enterprises and improve transparency about corporate beneficial ownership to attract investment and develop the private sector,” said the IMF.
Iran energy riches fail to bring prosperity
Iran energy riches fail to bring prosperity
Saudi Arabia to introduce VAT refunds for tourists starting in 2025
JEDDAH: In a move aimed at boosting tourism, Saudi Arabia will begin offering refunds on value-added tax for eligible purchases made by tourists starting in 2025, the government announced.
The Zakat, Tax, and Customs Authority proposed changes to the VAT Implementing Regulations in August, which were open for public consultation via the Istitlaa platform until Sept. 17. The proposed amendments cover the definition of eligible goods, the refund process, and the role of authorized service providers in handling claims.
This initiative is part of Saudi Arabia’s efforts to enhance its global appeal as a tourist destination under the ambitious Vision 2030 plan. The National Tourism Strategy aims to attract 150 million visitors by the end of the decade and increase tourism’s contribution to the Kingdom’s gross domestic product from 6 percent to 10 percent.
In its 2025 budget statement, the Ministry of Finance noted: “The introduction of VAT refunds for tourists in Saudi Arabia is designed to improve the traveler experience while ensuring tax compliance.”
According to the proposed changes, tourists will be able to claim VAT refunds on goods purchased in Saudi Arabia for personal use, provided the items are taken out of the country. Certain goods, including vehicles, tobacco products, and food, will be excluded from the refund scheme.
Refunds will be processed through authorized service providers, who will verify eligibility, manage claims, and maintain the necessary records. These providers may charge a commission for their services, while ZATCA will retain the authority to review and reject claims if necessary.
The proposal defines a tourist as someone who is not a permanent resident of Saudi Arabia or any other Gulf Cooperation Council state that applies VAT. Transport crew members and other specific categories will be excluded. Tourists from GCC countries will be treated as non-GCC visitors until a unified VAT refund system is established across the region.
ZATCA’s governor will oversee the implementation of the refund system, including setting the conditions for eligible goods, processing refund requests, and authorizing service providers.
The VAT refund initiative is part of broader efforts to position Saudi Arabia as a leading global tourism destination. By refining tax policies and enhancing the shopping experience for international visitors, the Kingdom aims to attract higher spending and stimulate growth in the tourism sector.
This move also reflects Saudi Arabia’s focus on economic diversification and robust tax governance, reinforcing its competitiveness as a global hub for both tourism and investment.
Saudi Arabia sets new unemployment rate target of 5% by 2030, minister reveals
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has revised its unemployment rate target to 5 percent by 2030, down from the previous goal of 7 percent, as part of Vision 2030’s ambitions, an official revealed.
During a panel discussion at the Budget Forum 2024, the Minister of Human Resources and Social Development Ahmed Al-Rajhi detailed the Kingdom’s strides toward improving employment figures.
“The unemployment rate among Saudis was 12.8 percent in 2018, and today it has dropped to 7.1 percent. The Vision 2030 target was to reduce Saudi unemployment to 7 percent by 2030, a milestone we have achieved six years ahead of schedule,” Al-Rajhi said.
He added: “For this reason, His Royal Highness the Crown Prince directed a review of this target, and now we have a new ambition: to reduce the unemployment rate among Saudis to 5 percent by 2030.”
The move highlights Saudi Arabia’s progress in building a robust labor market and achieving economic diversification under its reform agenda.
The human resources and social development system is deeply involved in implementing Vision 2030, contributing to eight of its 11 key programs and managing six specific workforce and social development strategies.
“One of the achievements of the system, and the government as a whole, is that this year we have achieved an overall unemployment rate of 3.3 percent, down from 6 percent in 2018,” Al-Rajhi said.
Regarding women’s involvement, the economic participation rate of females has reached 35 percent, exceeding the Vision 2030 target of 30 percent by 2030.
“We have surpassed the goal by 5 percent seven years ahead of schedule, and we now have a new target to aim for,” the minister said.
He continued: “The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development has implemented 84 percent of the Labor Market Strategy over the past four years, creating 300,000 jobs in specialized professions such as engineering, accounting, pharmacy, and radiology. These efforts align with Vision 2030’s emphasis on building a future-ready workforce.”
Al-Rajhi explained that the Kingdom has been tasked with updating this strategy, and the ministry submitted a new ambitious plan to elevate the Saudi labor market to one of the strongest globally.
“The second phase of this strategy is now awaiting government approval,” he said.
To further strengthen the labor market, the ministry has launched initiatives like the Waad program in partnership with the private sector, which has provided over 1.3 million training opportunities to date.
Additionally, labor regulations have been overhauled, with more than 38 articles amended to ensure a modern and adaptable workforce framework.
New insurance products, such as domestic worker insurance and labor market insurance, have also been introduced to safeguard employees and employers.
“Regarding beneficiary satisfaction: previously, the ministry in the labor sector received 60,000 visitors to its branches across the Kingdom each month,” Al-Rajhi said.
He added: “After launching the automation service and targeting zero visits, the number has now dropped to 3,000 beneficiaries per month.”
The Minister of Education Youssef Al-Benyan highlighted the ministry’s efforts in aligning its strategies with Vision 2030.
He emphasized the cumulative nature of transformation in the education sector, pointing out that the ministry has been building on progress from previous years to achieve sustainable development.
“The allocation for the 2025 budget exceeds SR200 billion ($42.09 billion),” Al-Benyan said, underscoring the government’s significant investment in education.
He explained that this funding reflects the ministry’s comprehensive approach to enhancing spending efficiency, institutional performance, and transformation.
“Today, if we talk about 2025, we must also briefly discuss 2024 and previous years, where the Ministry of Education has been building on cumulative progress,” Al-Benyan said.
He continued: “This reflects a professional culture that needs to be strengthened within the government system— that work is cumulative, and transformation is a gradual, ongoing process.”
Al-Benyan also mentioned the ministry’s focus on embedding a professional culture of long-term planning within government systems.
He said: “Spending efficiency is not solely the responsibility of the financial sector but a collaborative effort across various sectors. This is why we have revisited the operational system’s role in the ministry to ensure alignment with broader national goals.”
The minister highlighted the importance of education as a foundational pillar for Saudi Arabia’s economic and social development.
This includes investing in academic and operational infrastructure, supporting the Kingdom’s workforce needs, and ensuring the education system meets global standards.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 11,590
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index ended lower on Wednesday, losing 145.28 points, or 1.24 percent, to close at 11,590.79.
The benchmark index saw a total trading turnover of SR6.02 billion ($1.6 billion), with 65 stocks advancing and 168 declining. The Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, also experienced a decline, dropping 438.11 points, or 1.43 percent, to close at 30,164.72, as 30 stocks advanced and 52 retreated. The MSCI Tadawul Index fell 22.41 points, or 1.52 percent, to finish at 1,451.98.
Tamkeen Human Resource Co. was the best performer of the day, with its share price rising 30 percent to SR65. Other notable gainers included United International Transportation Co., whose stock rose 6.54 percent to SR76.60, and Anaam International Holding Group, which saw a 5.98 percent increase to SR1.24.
On the other hand, Saudi Cable Co. recorded the biggest loss, falling 6.67 percent to SR90.90.
SHL Finance Co. also saw a decline of 4.74 percent, closing at SR16.90, while Filing and Packing Materials Manufacturing Co. dropped 4.12 percent, ending the day at SR43.
On the announcements front, Saudi Awwal Bank announced the launch of its riyal-denominated additional tier-1 sukuk offering.
The terms and amount of the sukuk will be determined at a later stage, based on market conditions. The minimum subscription is set at SR1 million, with a par value of SR1 million.
The return will also be determined later, depending on market conditions. The targeted investors are institutional and qualified clients in accordance with the Capital Market Authority’s rules. HSBC Saudi Arabia has been appointed as the sole lead manager for the sukuk issuance. The bank’s stock closed down 2.95 percent at SR32.15.
Tamkeen Human Resource Co. also released its interim financial results for the period ending Sept. 30, reporting a net profit of SR69.1 million for the first nine months of 2024. This marks a 40.7 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023.
The growth was primarily driven by a 40 percent rise in revenues, a 28 percent increase in gross profit, and a SR10.3 million rise in general and administrative expenses. Non-operating income also grew by SR10.1 million, highlighting the company’s strong financial performance and effective management of its operations and risks.
Saudi Arabia looks to non-oil growth for a stronger, more stable future
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is focused on achieving high-quality growth through sustainable non-oil activities, aiming to boost private sector dynamism and productivity, while ensuring continued economic progress that goes beyond short-term expenditures, a minister stated.
Speaking during a panel discussion at the Budget Forum 2025 in Riyadh, Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim highlighted that Saudi Arabia's growth rate has consistently ranged from 4 percent to 6 percent in recent years and is expected to continue at a similar pace in the years ahead.
“We aspire for more than just numbers. We also aim for high-quality growth — growth that is based on sustainable non-oil activities, not dependent on temporary expenditures that stop when the spending stops,” Al-Ibrahim said.
He further added: “The growth we expect for non-oil activities by the end of this year is approximately 3.9 percent, and for next year, it is projected to be 4.8 percent. These figures will be adjusted as estimates improve.”
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan also emphasized that Vision 2030 is focused on establishing stable, sustainable public finances by reducing reliance on volatile revenue sources like oil.
“This is to guarantee the sustainability of funding for sectors that require a long-term horizon to achieve stability,” he said.
Al-Jadaan continued: “The difference between then and now is that spending is now sustainable and continuous because we have diversified the economy, diversified income sources, and utilized major fiscal policies.”
Al-Ibrahim stressed the importance of economic diversification in Saudi Arabia, pointing to tourism as a key example. He explained that without the deliberate focus on expanding the tourism sector and related industries, the country’s economic performance today would be significantly weaker.
“The growth we’re seeing in other sectors would not have compensated for the global changes affecting traditional sectors we used to rely on, such as the voluntary oil production cuts,” Al-Ibrahim said.
He added: “The role of tourism in the economy’s composition today is a testament to the strength and value of economic diversification.”
The minister also discussed the prioritization of economic transformation, with diversification at the top of the agenda.
“However, we’ve highlighted two key sectors: tourism and industry, along with their sub-sectors. Tourism helps us achieve rapid diversification and creates swift job opportunities. It also establishes a soft infrastructure for long-term investments, ideas, visitors, and industries,” Al-Ibrahim explained.
Al-Ibrahim emphasized that Saudi Arabia views the defense sector as a strategic priority and will continue investing in it for both national security and economic reasons.
“We have spent on defense and will continue to invest in it for several reasons, and its returns are strategic. Local content in the sector was at 4 percent, and today it has reached approximately 13 percent to 20 percent, with a target of 50 percent by 2030,” the minister said.
This focus on local content will prioritize complexity, as “many countries are now reinvesting in military sectors to meet strategic needs,” and the Kingdom is part of this global trend, focusing on peaceful objectives and long-term economic returns.
Al-Jadaan further explained that sustainable economic growth in Saudi Arabia heavily relies on maintaining stable and responsible public finances. To achieve consistent economic growth, the government must manage its financial resources effectively and direct them toward sectors that drive economic development and diversification, such as non-oil industries.
“Enabling public finance to support economic diversification is crucial. If public finance fails to allocate resources to the targeted sectors, or if it lacks commitment and consistency, the efforts may falter,” Al-Jadaan said.
He continued: “Fiscal policies consist of two components: government spending and the tax burden on the economy. These two policies are used to control and support the economy.”
Al-Jadaan acknowledged the importance of the structural reforms introduced at the start of Vision 2030, recognizing the challenges involved.
“Some of these reforms were considered painful,” he said, referring to difficult decisions such as reducing subsidies, introducing taxes like the value-added tax and excise tax, and imposing specific fees.
“These measures could have caused significant shocks in other economies, but the Saudi economy managed to overcome them,” he noted.
Al-Jadaan clarified that these reforms were not about imposing taxes and fees for their own sake, but about ensuring public finances could sustainably support the economy.
Reflecting on Saudi Arabia’s economic history, Al-Jadaan acknowledged that during the decades when oil dominated the economy, the country experienced rapid growth.
“The past 40-50 years were not wasted; we built a very strong infrastructure. However, this growth was not sustainable,” he said.
He explained that in the past, spending would rise and projects would be launched during periods of high oil revenue, but spending would stop, and projects would face delays when revenues fell.
Al-Jadaan also highlighted the evolution of Saudi Arabia’s fiscal policies. “We did not previously use debt instruments as we do today. Now, we use them to balance revenues and ensure continuous and sustainable expenditures. This allows for proper planning—not just for government entities and targeted sectors, but also for the private sector,” he said.
The shift toward sustainable spending has had significant benefits, Al-Jadaan emphasized, including improved services for citizens across various sectors such as health, education, and transportation.
“Sustainable spending supports a sustainable economy, which translates into better services for our citizens,” he said.
25 companies compete for six Saudi sports clubs in privatization push, says minister
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s ongoing sports privatization initiative has sparked significant interest from both local and international investors. A total of 25 companies are now actively pursuing investment opportunities in six of the 14 sports clubs proposed for privatization in the first phase.
During the Budget Forum 2025, Sports Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki Al-Faisal discussed the economic potential of the privatization drive, estimating that these investments could amount to SR500 million ($133 million).
“There is also interest from foreign companies in investing and acquiring local sports clubs, which we will announce soon,” the minister said.
Prince Abdulaziz noted that the Saudi Pro League’s international profile is on the rise, with broadcasts now reaching over 160 countries. Revenues from the league have increased by 33 percent this year, reflecting growing participation and interest in the Kingdom’s sports sector.
The expansion of sports is part of Saudi Arabia’s broader Vision 2030 reforms, which seek to diversify the country’s economy. To facilitate investment in the sector, the privatization process has been streamlined with the launch of a platform that licenses academies and clubs, making it easier for individuals and businesses to invest.
“In 2018, no one was allowed to establish a club except through the hassle of regulatory processes. Now, through the platform, anyone can open their club or academy and invest easily in the sector,” he explained.
Saudi Arabia has also made notable progress in sports tourism, hosting around 80 sports events over the past four years, attracting 2.5 million visitors. Major events such as the Formula One race in Jeddah have brought substantial economic benefits. The 2023 edition, for instance, generated over 20,000 job opportunities and attracted attendees from 160 different countries.
The minister further highlighted improvements in sports sector administration, including a reduction in contract termination penalties among clubs from SR616 million to SR30 million last year. He also pointed to the shift from part-time or voluntary staffing to a full-time workforce of 5,000 employees, with a target of creating 130,000 direct and indirect jobs by 2030.
In another session at the conference, Saudi Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb shared that tourism’s contribution to the Kingdom’s gross domestic product had increased from 3 percent in 2018 to 5 percent in 2023, with a target of 10 percent by 2030.
“In the recent G20 meeting in Brazil, they presented the tourism growth of the nations in the first seven months of this year compared to the same period in 2019. Saudi Arabia was the highest with 70 percent, followed by Turkiye with 5 percent — a huge growth gap between the first and the second,” Al-Khateeb remarked.
Domestic travel in Saudi Arabia has also seen a surge, with the average number of flights per Saudi citizen or resident rising from 1.4 in 2018 to 2.5 in 2023. This compares favorably with leading global tourism destinations such as France (3.5) and Spain (2.8).
Saudi Arabia’s focus on cultural, sports, and historical events has positioned the Kingdom to capture a share of the 1.6 billion travelers expected to grow to 3.8 billion by 2032. Al-Khateeb emphasized that Vision 2030 initiatives have been central to this growth, driving both job creation and economic diversification.
In a separate panel, Ibrahim Al-Mubarak, assistant minister of Investment, highlighted the role of monetary policies in fostering sustainability and building trust with investors.
“There is no other spot in the world that has seen the transformation witnessed in the Kingdom at such an unprecedented speed since the launch of Vision 2030,” Al-Mubarak said.
He also praised the upcoming launch of a new investment system, set to replace the current foreign investment system in early 2025. This new framework aims to offer equal support to both domestic and international investors, consolidating investor rights and freedoms into a more transparent and business-friendly environment.
Al-Mubarak further celebrated the Kingdom’s success in the regional headquarters program, which has already surpassed its Vision 2030 target of attracting 500 regional headquarters by 2030.
“We are now hosting 540 companies by 2024,” he added, emphasizing Saudi Arabia’s growing position as a regional business hub.
