LONDON: Civil unrest has flared in Iran even as it powered out of recession following the easing of international sanctions last year.
But economic recovery hasn’t yet fed through to the mass of the people, experts told Arab News.
Sanam Vakil, associate fellow at Chatham House said: “After negative growth, Iranian GDP was at 7 percent in 2016/17, 6 percent driven by hydrocarbon exports.”
Iran is energy-rich, holding the world’s fourth-largest proved crude oil reserves and second-largest when it comes to natural gas, said the US Energy Information Administration.
And yet, despite its lavish endowment of oil and gas, the energy premium had not kicked in — “we should expect a ‘trickle down effect’ that will take time, said Vakil.
The protests were about increased expectations following the nuclear deal which was “oversold” to the Iranian populace, she added.
“It wasn’t as impactful as people thought it would be,” said Vakil.
There was a lack of acknowledgement that there would continue to be a number of obstacles as result of secondary US sanctions.
A paper from London-based BMI Research, emailed to Arab News said: “Inflation has declined substantially since president Hassan Rouhani entered office in 2013 — but it remains elevated, standing at 9.6 percent year-on-year in November (up from 8.4 percent in October).”
BMI adds: “Unemployment, meanwhile, has risen as upticks in hydrocarbon exports and foreign investment have failed to spur large-scale job creation: it was officially recorded at 12.6 percent of the labor force in July, but is widely assumed to be significantly higher.”
According to BMI, Iranians’ expectations for economic conditions to improve on the back of the 2015 nuclear deal and 2016 lifting of most international sanctions have not been met.
Many (particularly in the more rural areas of the country) perceive the political establishment to be highly corrupt, and not acting in the best interest of ordinary Iranians, said BMI.
Vakil said the Iranian government faces “political obstacles and need to be communicating more.”
“Rouhani is trying to curb corruption, and make institutions more transparent. But some of these institutions are pushing back. There are tensions, the government is running up against clerical foundations … people that account for quite a big percentage of government budget, but don’t want any strings attached [such as transparency],” said Vakil.
Additionally, Rouhani had to pursue banking reform because Iranian banks have a massive percentage of non-performing loans, she said.
A 2017 International Monetary Fund (IMF) report said global banks still face an extremely high compliance burden to do business with Iran.
How can Iran better ramp-up its energy resources to spread prosperity? Vakil said Iranian gas hasn’t really taken off and needs massive investment.
The IMF pointed out that Iran’s natural gas sector had been expanding, but production growth had been lower than expected as a result of the lack of foreign investment and technology.
Located offshore in the Gulf, the South Pars natural gas field holds almost 40 percent of Iran’s gas reserves, but it is being developed mostly by Iranian companies because most international companies have pulled out. The IMF said development has been faced numerous delays.
When it comes to oil, there are several factors at play. Prices are weak, and as the second largest member of OPEC, Iran must comply with production cuts agreed last year. On the other hand, like other countries, it is seeking to boost income from outside the energy sector to cut its dependance on hydrocarbons.
Iran shipped 777 million barrels of crude last year, the state news agency Shana said recently in a report used by Reuters. The same report said Iran had he country exported 490,000 barrels per day of gas condensate.
The combined daily exports of crude oil and condensate were said to be on a par with what the country used to export in oil and condensate before the imposition of economic sanctions because of its nuclear program, according to Shana.
An IMF mission to Iran in December 2017 found that growth had begun to broaden to the non-oil sector.
“Real GDP growth is projected to reach 4.2 percent in 2017/18 and is expected to be sustained or even rise toward 4.5 percent over the medium-term if financial sector reform takes hold,” said the IMF.
But the IMF also argued for faster implementation of structural reforms, completion of anti-money laundering/combating the financing of terrorism reforms, and the removal of obstacles to private sector development that would allow growth to become more diversified, resilient and job intensive.
Credit institutions and banks needed urgent restructuring and recapitalization, it added.
“Despite recent improvements in the business environment, Iran needed to reduce red tape, reform state-owned enterprises and improve transparency about corporate beneficial ownership to attract investment and develop the private sector,” said the IMF.
Iran energy riches fail to bring prosperity
Iran energy riches fail to bring prosperity
Saudi Arabia, UAE invest $26.8m in Pakistan in Q1 of 2024
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s foreign investment surged by 48 percent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, according to state-run media reports on Tuesday.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE contributed a total of $26.8 million during this period. In 2023, Pakistan established the Special Investment Facilitation Council, a joint civil-military body aimed at expediting foreign investment decisions in key economic sectors, including agriculture, mining, minerals, and tourism.
This initiative came amid Pakistan’s ongoing economic crisis, which had pushed the country to the brink of a sovereign default. The crisis was mitigated by a crucial $3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund last year, preventing further economic collapse.
According to a breakdown shared by Radio Pakistan, China led foreign investments in the first quarter with $404 million, followed by the UAE’s $25 million and Saudi Arabia’s $1.8 million. Other notable contributors included Hong Kong, with $98 million; the UK, with $72 million; and the US, with $28 million.
Radio Pakistan reported: “A significant increase of 48 percent has been seen in foreign investment in Pakistan in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, reflecting the effective strategies of the Special Investment Facilitation Council.”
During a recent visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held talks with leaders from both nations to discuss boosting cooperation in trade, investment, and energy. Notably, in October, Pakistani and Saudi businesses signed 27 agreements and memorandums of understanding valued at $2.2 billion.
During Sharif’s visit to the Kingdom last week, the two countries agreed to increase this figure to $2.8 billion.
The UAE remains Pakistan’s third-largest trading partner, after China and the US, and serves as an important export market due to its proximity, which helps minimize transportation costs and facilitates trade exchanges.
In recent months, Sharif has been actively pursuing economic diplomacy in the region, focusing on securing investments, boosting trade, and improving regional connectivity.
Pakistan has sought to leverage its strategic position as a trade and transit hub, connecting landlocked Central Asian countries with the global market while promoting mutually beneficial economic partnerships with Gulf nations.
Saudi Arabia’s CMF Selects holds first-ever market event at LSE
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s CMF Selects has successfully concluded its inaugural international market event, hosted at the London Stock Exchange.
The gathering, as announced in a press release, marked a key milestone for CMF Selects, an initiative under the Saudi Capital Market Authority. The event aimed to strengthen strategic partnerships between the Kingdom and global markets.
Organized by CMF Selects, the event attracted more than 245 influential participants, including industry experts and investors from the UK, Saudi Arabia, and other international markets.
CMF Selects is a targeted series of events under the CMF umbrella, focusing on specialized topics that are relevant to Saudi Arabia and its global partners.
Sarah Al-Suhaimi, chairperson of the Saudi Tadawul Group, stated: “The forum has contributed to strengthening the relationships between Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom, enabling both sides to leverage promising growth opportunities and foster investments between the two markets.”
She added: “We are pleased to continue the journey of success and expand the Financial Markets Forum, aspiring to establish its position as a leading platform for innovation in financial markets. We aim to organize the first Financial Markets Forum in London by 2026.”
Michael Mainelli, the Lord Mayor of the City of London, commented: “The first edition of the event has highlighted the strength of the Saudi-British partnership and their fundamental role in achieving joint Saudi-British visions of growth, as well as strengthening links between the financial markets.”
Discussions throughout the event focused on exploring economic and investment opportunities across a range of sectors, including finance, technology, and sustainable development.
One of the key themes of the event was sustainability and technological innovation—both central to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. Conversations explored how these areas could be advanced through international investment, with the goal of driving economic growth and resilience in both Saudi Arabia and the UK.
Looking ahead, CMF Selects plans to host a series of similar market hub events in other global financial centers, including New York, Tokyo, and Frankfurt.
The press release also revealed that this initiative is part of a broader strategy to position Saudi Arabia as a global financial powerhouse by 2026, supporting the Kingdom’s efforts to diversify and strengthen its economy.
Saudi cabinet approves framework to boost foreign direct investment
RIYADH: The Saudi Cabinet has initially approved the national general framework and guiding principles for foreign direct investment, setting the stage for enhanced economic engagement with international organizations.
The session, chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, addressed significant developments on both domestic and international fronts, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
The Kingdom’s foreign direct investment inflows reached SR96 billion ($25.6 billion) in 2023, marking a 50 percent annual increase from the previous year.
The crown prince briefed the Cabinet on his recent discussions with leaders from several allied countries, focusing on bolstering ties across diverse sectors.
The Minister of Media, Salman Al-Dossary, highlighted that among these decisions the Cabinet authorized Saudi Arabia’s accession to the Cement and Concrete Breakthrough Initiative, launched on the sidelines of the UN Climate Change Conference.
This aligns with the Kingdom’s sustainability goals and commitment to the global climate agenda.
The Cabinet also approved an agreement with Qatar to avoid double taxation and prevent tax evasion.
This move underscores the Kingdom’s dedication to fostering economic cooperation within the Gulf region, facilitating smoother cross-border investments, and enhancing transparency in financial dealings.
In line with advancing Saudi Arabia’s capabilities in science and technology, the Cabinet also endorsed a framework agreement with the US to cooperate in civil aviation navigation and the peaceful exploration of outer space.
Additionally, the Cabinet also reviewed regional and international developments, with the crown prince briefing members on recent discussions with various heads of state focused on strengthening ties across multiple sectors.
The meeting highlighted the Kingdom’s efforts in regional peace initiatives, its commitment to global health challenges through the G20 platform, and recent advancements in the tourism sector.
During the session, the Cabinet commended the outcome of the second ministerial meeting of the Saudi-Indian Strategic Partnership Council economic and investment committee, highlighting the progress toward achieving the two countries’ shared goals.
This was mainly in the fields of industry, infrastructure, and technology, as well as agriculture, food security, climate sciences, and sustainable transportation.
Domestically, the Cabinet underlined the Kingdom’s significant advancement of 15 places in the 2023 international tourist revenue rankings compared to 2019, leading the top 50 rankings in an upward movement.
This achievement underscores the country’s global leadership and ongoing success in the tourism sector.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 12,014
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index dipped on Tuesday, losing 24.37 points, or 0.20 percent, to close at 12,014.94.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR5.73 billion ($1.52 billion), as 86 of the listed stocks advanced, while 140 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index decreased by 4.65 points, or 0.31 percent, to close at 1,507.83.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu surged, gaining 768.81 points, or 2.74 percent, to close at 28,831.58. This comes as 42 of the listed stocks advanced while 32 retreated.
The best-performing stock of the day was Riyadh Cables Group Co., with its share price surging by 6.95 percent to SR117.
Other top performers included Arabian Cement Co., which saw its share price rise by 4.51 percent to SR25.50, and Al Moammar Information Systems Co., which saw a 4.38 percent increase to SR185.80.
The worst performer of the day was Wataniya Insurance Co., whose share price fell by 9.96 percent to SR24.04.
Al-Etihad Cooperative Insurance Co. and Shatirah House Restaurant Co. also saw declines, with their shares dropping by 9.34 percent and 5.77 percent to SR18.44 and SR21.22, respectively.
On the announcements front, Saudi Public Transport Co. announced its interim consolidated financial results for the first nine months of the current year. SAPTCO’s shares dropped in today’s trading session, dipping by 1.01 percent to reach SR21.58.
According to a Tadawul statement, the firm recorded a net loss of SR20.8 million in this period of the year, reflecting a 53.3 percent dip compared to the same term in 2023.
The decline in net profit for the current period, compared to the same period last year, is due to lower operating revenue from reduced public transportation operations, along with higher general and administrative expenses, increased finance costs, and higher zakat and tax, combined with a decrease in finance income.
The Saudi Arabian Cooperative Insurance Co. also announced its interim financial results for the same period ending on Sept. 30. SAICO’s shares dropped in today’s trading session, decreasing by 2.89 percent to SR14.78.
Net profit before zakat attributable to the shareholders for the current period amounted to SR43.2 million compared to SR65 million during the same period of the previous year, which was mainly due to a decrease of 44.9 percent in the net insurance service, which was affected by a decrease in medical business.
For the first nine months of this year, Abdullah Al Othaim Markets Co. revealed its results for the first nine months of this year, with total comprehensive income amounting to SR220.6 million – a year-on-year decrease of 30.4 percent.
Abdullah Al Othaim Markets Co.’s shares decreased in today’s trading session by 1.92 percent to reach SR11.24.
Gulf Insurance Group’s income over the same period also dropped – with the SR78.2 million it registered representing an annual fall of 19.7 percent.
GIG’s shares also saw declines by 0.84 percent to reach SR29.50.
The individual investor subscription for Tamkeen Human Resources’ initial public offering on the Saudi stock market started Nov. 5 and runs until Nov. 6.
According to a statement from the company, a total of 1.59 million shares, representing 20 percent of the offering, are allocated to individual investors at SR50 per share.
The deadline for subscription and payment is Nov. 6, with the final allocation announced on Nov. 11. The minimum subscription is 10 shares, and the maximum is 250,000. Saudi Fransi Capital managed the initial public offering, which saw an institutional demand of SR55 billion, with coverage 138.2 times.
China to issue $2bn bonds in Saudi Arabia amid deepening bilateral ties
RIYADH: China has announced plans to issue dollar-denominated bonds in Saudi Arabia starting the week of Nov. 11, marking its first debt issuance in US currency since 2021.
The Asian country’s Ministry of Finance disclosed on Nov. 5 that it will sell up to $2 billion in bonds in Riyadh.
This issuance comes as China and the Kingdom are strengthening a multifaceted alliance that extends across multiple spheres.
In recent years, both nations have sought to broaden their economic cooperation, aligning strategic initiatives such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan.
“With the approval of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance will issue US dollar sovereign bonds of no more than $2 billion in Saudi Arabia in the week of November 11, 2024. The specific issuance arrangements will be announced separately before the release,” the ministry’s statement read.
This step will positively impact the Kingdom’s financial market, “especially when considering that the Financial Development Program is playing a crucial role in shaping the future of Saudi Arabia’s financial sector,” according to Talat Hafiz, a Saudi-based economist.
Talking to Arab News, he said such issuance supports one of the main pillars of Vision 2030, to advance the Saudi economy through diversification and enhancing the local financial market.
Strengthening Saudi-Chinese relations
“The issuance is part of China’s efforts to strengthen the relationship between the two friendly countries, which is witnessing huge improvements in several fields,” Hafiz said.
In September,Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Chinese Premier Li Qiang co-chaired a pivotal meeting of the High-Level Saudi-Chinese Committee, where they reviewed aspects of joint cooperation and addressed regional and international developments.
The session in Riyadh emphasized opportunities in energy, trade, and investment, as well as well as technology and security, while laying the groundwork for enhanced coordination across these sectors.
Expanding tourism and education links
Tourism has emerged as a significant focus in Saudi-Chinese relations. In October, Saudi officials, including the Minister of Tourism Ahmed Al-Khateeb, engaged with Chinese counterparts to expand travel and investment ties.
The Kingdom received the designation of “Approved Destination Status” from Beijing earlier this year, following participation in key events in China.
To attract 5 million visitors from the Asian country by 2030, Saudi Arabia has introduced Chinese payment processing options, launched tailored tourism campaigns, and increased direct flights between the two countries.
Growing trade and investment
China has been Saudi Arabia’s largest trade partner since 2014, with bilateral trade reaching $97 billion in 2023. This figure includes $54 billion in Saudi exports and $43 billion in imports from China.
This issuance will benefit both the Kingdom’s financial market and businesses in Saudi Arabia and China, especially with their strong economic ties and alignment with Vision 2030 and the Belt and Road Initiative, according to Hafiz.
The economist said “the Saudi-Chinese Business Council has a major role to play in promoting business between Saudi Arabia and China.”
He highlighted the trade size amounting to “about $96.5 billion in 2023, representing 18 percent of the total volume of Saudi trade globally.”
Investments between the two nations have also surged, with Chinese investments in the Kingdom rising from $1.5 billion in 2022 to $16.8 billion in 2023. Saudi investments in China are also substantial, totaling $75 billion.
Saudi Arabia and China are exploring new avenues for collaboration, including joint investments in renewable energy, infrastructure, and technology, with a focus on sustainable development.
The crown prince’s 2019 visit to Beijing set a foundation for this strategic partnership, resulting in 12 agreements and memoranda of understanding that continue to shape bilateral cooperation.
