CAIRO/DUBAI: Encouraged by Egypt’s economic reforms, a major gas find, streamlined business rules and a devalued currency, investors are increasingly optimistic about prospects for the North African country after years of political turmoil.
Foreign holdings of Treasury bills hit a record high in December, foreign inflows into the stock market last year were the highest since 2010 and direct investment by foreign firms and private equity funds is on the rise again.
Key for many longer-term foreign investors are the natural gasfields that have come on stream in the last few months, including the offshore Zohr field, whose estimated 30 trillion cubic feet makes it the largest in the Mediterranean.
Iyad Malas, a Dubai-based partner of private equity firm Gateway Partners, said Zohr “will be a game changer for Egypt” and the company’s fund, which invests in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, is looking at several opportunities in Egypt.
The gas discoveries should eventually make Egypt a gas exporter and boost its plans to become a regional energy hub.
Besides the gas, private equity firms say reforms launched since the end of 2016 that secured a $12 billion loan program from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have shifted sentiment enough to spur investment, despite the risks.
One of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s biggest challenges is to end an Islamist insurgency which has started to shift its attacks from the remote Sinai peninsula to larger cities.
Investors, however, say they are more concerned the government might deviate from reforms agreed with the IMF, such as cutting energy subsidies further, to keep voters on side ahead of presidential elections this year.
Investors also want inflation to fall and for the government to press ahead with reforms to tackle the red tape that has left Egypt ranked 128 out of 190 countries in the World Bank’s ease of doing business index.
’Economic outperformer’
Since November 2016, Egypt has devalued its currency, removed limits on foreign currency transfers, lifted hard currency restrictions for importers, cut subsidies for domestic fuel and raised value-added tax.
“We’re very positive on Egypt,” said Karim El Solh, co-founder and chief executive of Abu Dhabi’s Gulf Capital, which has invested some $200 million in Egypt.
“In the region, it is set to be the economic outperformer in 2018, especially after these very strong and needed structural reforms,” he said.
Investment by overseas investors in short-term, liquid instruments such as Treasury bills has been heavy since Egypt devalued its currency and raised interest rates.
Throughout 2017, investors snapped up bills with maturities of three to 12 months yielding as much as 22 percent. By early December, foreign holdings of Treasury bills had hit a record 338 billion Egyptian pounds ($19 billion), up from 532 million pounds in mid-2016, central bank data showed.
In US dollar terms, foreign holdings of Treasury bills are now nearly three times the previous high in 2010 — with about half the investment coming in the last few months of 2017.
Charles Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital, estimates the Egyptian pound is 16 percent undervalued compared to its long-term average and with inflation coming down from its 2017 peak of 33 percent, Egypt remains one of the most attractive emerging markets.
The stock market, which has a capitalization of $45 billion, has also benefited from net inflows of foreign funds, which came to 7.5 billion pounds in 2017, the highest since a record 8.4 billion pounds in 2010, according to exchange data.
Since the pound floated on Nov. 3, 2016 — slumping from 8.8 to the dollar to 17.7 now — the Egyptian blue-chip index has climbed more than 70 percent.
Robertson expects the rally to continue for the next two years now the shock of the 2016 currency devaluation has passed, economic growth is picking up and high inflation is receding.
Direct investment
More importantly for Egypt’s longer-term stability, investment by foreign companies and acquisitions by foreign private equity firms are rising — the kind of commitment that is less likely to be affected by short-term market fluctuations.
Economists say the fact Egypt has a population above 90 million, the third highest in Africa behind Nigeria and Ethiopia, coupled with a young and growing labor force make it an attractive destination.
Net inflows of foreign direct investment into Egypt came to $7.9 billion in the year to the end of June, according to government data, helped by the energy sector. While below the government’s $10 billion target, it was the fourth annual increase in a row and the highest since $8.1 billion in 2008-09.
Inflows peaked at $13.2 billion in 2007-08 before plummeting to $2.2 billion in 2011 during the Arab Spring uprising that ousted long-serving President Hosni Mubarak, disrupted the economy and ushered in years of political instability.
Partly because of the improving outlook for gas supplies and a growing solar power industry, foreign private equity firms are expecting a surge in investment in the energy sector.
Hashem Fouad, chief investment officer at Dubai-based Enara Capital, said his firm was working with Chinese interests on opportunities in Egypt.
“We achieved financial closes worth $200 million in the renewable energy sector in 2017 and expect more deals this year,” he said.
Others are focusing on sectors likely to benefit as the economy expands, and exporters helped by the weaker currency. Solh at Gulf Capital said his firm was looking at companies in health care, education, water and food.
“We are backing companies that are very export-oriented, earning hard currencies in dollars or euros so we are partially hedged to the currency,” he said.
Gateway Partners is also focusing on export-orientated sectors and consumer industries.
“We believe sectors related to consumer — retail, real estate, health care and education — and export manufacturing industries like textiles, agri-processing, and many other manufactured products are attractive,” said Malas.
The impact of the devaluation on exports and imports, coupled with the surge in foreign fund inflows, has also helped Egypt start to address the chronic trade deficit and balance of payments problems that have plagued the country for a decade.
The central bank’s foreign reserves surged to $37 billion in December from just over $24 billion a year earlier, while gross domestic product growth accelerated to 5.2 percent in the July-September quarter from 3.4 percent a year ago.
Surge in foreign fund inflows sets stage for Egyptian boom
Surge in foreign fund inflows sets stage for Egyptian boom
Global markets: Shares rise on China-US trade hopes, dollar on the back foot
PARIS: Global shares rallied on Friday, helped by signs of progress in US-China trade talks, while the dollar held close to its lowest levels in more than three years.
World stock markets have rallied to record highs this week, as traders took confidence from a ceasefire between Iran and Israel and markets stepped up bets for US rate cuts.
A trade agreement between the US and China on Thursday on how to expedite rare earth shipments to the US was also seen by markets as a positive sign, amid efforts to end the tariff war between the world’s two biggest economies.
Asian shares hit their highest in more than three years in early trading, and US stock futures pointed to a firm start for Wall Street shares.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index was up 0.8 percent on the day, set for a 1.1 percent weekly gain — its best week since mid-May.
London’s FTSE 100 was up 0.5 percent and Germany’s DAX gained 0.6 percent.
The MSCI World Equity Index touched a fresh record high and was set for a weekly gain of 2.8 percent.
The S&P 500 index is up just 4.4 percent this year overall, following a volatile first half of the year, dominated by US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2, which sent stocks plunging.
“What we are having right now is potentially some optimism about some trade deals,” said Vasileios Gkionakis, senior economist and strategist at Aviva Investors.
“We have ... come from quite low levels in the aftermath of the Liberation Day in April. To a certain extent we have also had some mini-selloff on the back of the events in the Middle East, and in that sense we’re rebounding.”
Trump has set July 9 as the deadline for the EU and other countries to reach a deal to reduce tariffs.
Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management said that in the near-term, the firm saw greater upside potential in US and emerging markets than in Europe.
Dollar drop
The dollar remained on the backfoot, hovering near its lowest level in 3-1/2 years against the euro and sterling.
The dollar index was down a touch on the day at 97.269 , holding near its lowest in more than three years. The euro was at $1.1708, getting a lift after data showed French consumer prices rose more than expected in June.
It held near multi-year peaks hit a day earlier.
“We see the US dollar as unattractive,” said Haefele at UBS Wealth Management.
Markets are focused on US monetary policy, as traders weigh up the possibility of Trump announcing a new, more dovish chair of the Federal Reserve.
Traders have stepped up their bets on US rate cuts, and are now pricing in 64 basis points (bps) of easing this year versus 46 bps expected on Friday.
The dollar is having its worst start to a year since the era of free-floating currencies began in the early 1970s.
“I don’t think it’s just the repricing of the Fed, I think there is a broader issue here of some tarnishing of US exceptionalism,” Aviva Investors’ Gkionakis said.
Core PCE price data, the US central bank’s preferred measure of inflation, is due later in the session.
German 30-year government bond yields were on track for their biggest weekly increase in nearly four months after rising this week on expectations of increased borrowing by Germany’s government.
PIF embraces ‘precision finance’ with diversified debt strategy, says Global SWF
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is embracing a calibrated, multi-instrument approach to debt issuance described by Global SWF as a model of “precision finance.”
According to the research firm, the purpose — following the issuance of the commercial paper program in June — is to align PIF’s funding tools with investment timelines, liquidity needs, and investor targeting, while reinforcing financial discipline across its expanding portfolio.
In its report, Global SWF noted that PIF is moving away from a singular focus on long-term mega-bond issuances and toward a more agile debt framework that includes commercial paper, sukuk, green bonds, and multi-tranche conventional bonds.
This strategy is designed not just to raise capital, but to do so with precision, which is matching maturities to project lifecycles and diversifying funding sources across global markets.
Global SWF highlighted that PIF’s latest move, completes a full-spectrum debt portfolio that now includes ultra-short to ultra-long maturity instruments.
The commercial paper, issued in US dollar and euro denominations via offshore special-purpose vehicles, secured the highest short-term credit ratings available: Prime-1 from Moody’s and F1+ from Fitch.
These ratings reflect exceptional credit quality and grant PIF access to deep liquidity pools among institutional investors such as money market funds.
The commercial paper program is a critical addition to a borrowing strategy that also includes a $3 billion 100-year green bond issued in October 2022, a $5.5 billion green bond in February 2023, a $3.5 billion sukuk in October 2023, and a series of multi-tranche bonds and sukuk issued through early 2025.
With each offering, PIF has tailored tenor, currency, and structure to match specific financial and investor objectives.
The evolution of PIF’s financial strategy is closely tied to its broader transformation under Vision 2030. Since 2016, the fund has grown its assets under management from $160 billion to $941.3 billion, according to the latest Vision 2030 Annual Report. It has now increased its 2030 AUM target to $2.67 trillion, reflecting its expanded mandate and rising international profile.
PIF’s investment strategy is balanced between domestic development and global positioning. About 40 percent of its assets are allocated to Saudi-based companies and projects, while the remaining 60 percent target international sectors such as technology, logistics, mining, and tourism.
According to the Vision 2030 report, PIF’s initiatives have helped create 1.1 million jobs, attracted over $37 billion in private capital, and grown the number of PIF-established companies from 45 in 2021 to 93 in 2024.
A strategic departure from Gulf norms
While other sovereign wealth funds such as Norway’s NBIM remain entirely debt-free, and Singapore’s Temasek or China Investment Corporation borrow sparingly, PIF has opted for a hybrid model, one that combines government equity injections with strategic use of debt instruments.
According to Global SWF, this is not a matter of opportunistic borrowing. Rather, PIF is practicing deliberate asset-liability matching which focuses on issuing long-dated bonds to support giga-projects like NEOM or The Line, while using short-term debt for working capital needs and market-timed investments.
Sukuk offerings help tap into regional Islamic finance liquidity, and green bonds target environmental, social, and governance-focused global capital.
This differentiated approach allows PIF to broaden its investor base while keeping funding costs aligned with the nature and duration of its projects.
Why ratings matter
The fund’s credibility is bolstered by strong long-term credit ratings: Aa3 from Moody’s and A+ from Fitch. This has allowed it to secure favorable terms on successive bond offerings and confirmed that PIF is regarded as an exceptionally low-risk short-term borrower, giving it seamless access to institutional liquidity globally.
Global SWF emphasized that the ratings, combined with diverse issuance formats, position PIF among a small group of sovereign wealth funds with the internal capability to manage complex, multi-layered debt programs.
Saudi Arabia is currently navigating a tighter fiscal environment, with a projected 2.3 percent budget deficit in 2025 and a more disciplined approach to public spending.
In this context, PIF’s access to capital markets is more than just financial, according to Global SWF, it serves as a strategic bridge that enables ongoing project execution without placing undue pressure on state reserves.
The firm noted that the fund’s recent bond and sukuk calendar illustrates a sequenced and diversified funding plan, rather than reliance on a single issuance type. This is especially important as global interest rates remain volatile and investors increasingly scrutinize sovereign debt sustainability.
Rather than treating debt as a one-off tool, the fund is deploying it systematically, by tenor, purpose, and investor group, to support a $2.6 trillion vision for economic diversification and global investment leadership.
As the Kingdom approaches the final stretch of Vision 2030 implementation, PIF’s capital strategy offers a case study in how sovereign wealth funds can combine financial discipline, market sophistication, and national ambition under a unified financing framework.
Safe-haven gold near a 1-month low as global tensions ebb
BENGALURU: Gold fell more than 1 percent to its lowest level in nearly a month on Friday due to easing geopolitical and trade tensions and as investors awaited US inflation data for clues on the future trajectory of interest rates.
Spot gold lost 1.4 percent to $3,282.68 per ounce by 1:55 p.m. Saudi time, its lowest since late May. Prices have fallen by over 2 percent this week and more than $200 from a record high scaled in April.
US gold futures fell 1.6 percent to $3,294.50.
The Iran-Israel ceasefire, brokered earlier this week by US President Donald Trump, is holding for now.
A White House official said on Thursday that the US has reached an agreement with China on how to expedite rare earths shipments to the US.
July 9 is the deadline for Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs as nations rush to get an agreement.
“The loss of haven demand has meant that despite the latest leg down in the dollar, gold has not benefited from this at all,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com.
“A bit of a pullback would not be too bad an outcome as that will allow long-term technical overbought conditions on higher time frames to work off, allowing the metal to shine again when macro conditions are more favorable once more.”
Spot silver fell 1.8 percent to $35.96.
Platinum dropped 5.9 percent to $1,334.63, after hitting its highest since 2014. Palladium fell 1.2 percent to $1,117.96.
The main reason for the price increase in platinum was likely to be the high discount to gold, which is apparently considered too expensive, said Commerzbank in a note.
Oil Updates — crude set for steepest weekly decline in two years as risk subsides
- Brent, WTI down 12 percent this week, most since March 2023
- No major supply disruption from Mid-East crisis, analysts say
LONDON: Oil prices rose on Friday though were set for their steepest weekly decline since March 2023, as the absence of significant supply disruption from the Iran-Israel conflict saw any risk premium evaporate.
Brent crude futures were up 51 cents, or 0.75 percent, to $68.24 a barrel at 3:02 p.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 51 cents, or nearly 0.8 percent, to $65.75.
During the 12-day war that started after Israel targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 13, Brent prices rose briefly to above $80 a barrel before slumping to $67 a barrel after US President Donald Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire.
That put both contracts on course for a weekly fall of about 12 percent.
“The market has almost entirely shrugged off the geopolitical risk premiums from almost a week ago as we return to a fundamentals-driven market,” said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.
“The market also has to keep eyes on the OPEC+ meeting – we do expect room for one more month of an accelerated unwinding basis balances and structure, but the key question is how strong the summer demand indicators are showing up to be.”
The OPEC+ members will meet on July 6 to decide on August production levels.
Prices were also being supported by multiple oil inventory reports that showed strong draws in the middle distillates, said Tamas Varga, a PVM Oil Associates analyst.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed crude oil and fuel inventories fell a week earlier, with refining activity and demand rising.
Meanwhile, data on Thursday showed that the independently held gasoil stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining and storage hub fell to their lowest in over a year, while Singapore’s middle distillates inventories declined as net exports climbed week on week.
Additionally, China’s Iranian oil imports surged in June as shipments accelerated before the conflict and demand from independent refineries improved, analysts said.
China is the world’s top oil importer and biggest buyer of Iranian crude. It bought more than 1.8 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from June 1-20, according to ship-tracker Vortexa, a record high based on the firm’s data.
Pakistani stocks decline by 715 points over profit-taking after two days of gains
- KSE-100 Index closes at 122,046.46 points, witnessing a decline of 0.58 percent, as per stock market data
- Profit-taking driven by fiscal year-end considerations, short-term portfolio rebalancing, says financial analyst
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a bearish trend on Thursday after two days of gains, losing 715.18 points to close at 122,046.46 points, which a financial analyst attributed to profit-taking driven by fiscal year-end considerations.
The PSX closed at 122,046.46 points when trading ended on Thursday, witnessing a negative change of 0.58 percent. The KSE-100 had closed at 122,761.64 points on Wednesday and before that on Tuesday, it surged by 6,079 points or 5.23 percent to close at 122,246 points. Analysts attributed the surge on Tuesday to the ceasefire announcement between Iran and Israel.
As many as 473 companies transacted their shares in the stock market on Thursday, with 200 of them recording gains and 237 sustaining losses, state-run Associated Press of Pakistan (APP) said, adding that the share price of 36 companies remained unchanged.
“After two consecutive sessions of strong gains, the local bourse witnessed a round of profit-taking today, driven by fiscal year-end considerations and short-term portfolio rebalancing,” Maaz Mulla, the vice president of equity sales at Topline Securities Limited, said in a statement.
Mulla said the benchmark KSE-100 index saw a “volatile ride“— climbing 656 points intraday before losing 715 points at close of business. He said the closing figure of 122,046 points reflected “a cautious investor mood” as the quarter draws to a close.
He said despite the decline at the end of the day, the overall market activity remained “vibrant.”
“Total traded volume clocked in at 750 million shares, with a traded value of PKR 29.8 billion,” Mulla said.
APP reported that the three top trading companies on Thursday were Pak Int. Bulk with 37,503,501 shares traded at Rs 8.52 per share, WorldCall Telecom with 33,285,442 shares at Rs 1.45 per share and Pervez Ahmed Co. with 32,962,174 shares at Rs 3.29 per share.
