CAIRO/DUBAI: Encouraged by Egypt’s economic reforms, a major gas find, streamlined business rules and a devalued currency, investors are increasingly optimistic about prospects for the North African country after years of political turmoil.
Foreign holdings of Treasury bills hit a record high in December, foreign inflows into the stock market last year were the highest since 2010 and direct investment by foreign firms and private equity funds is on the rise again.
Key for many longer-term foreign investors are the natural gasfields that have come on stream in the last few months, including the offshore Zohr field, whose estimated 30 trillion cubic feet makes it the largest in the Mediterranean.
Iyad Malas, a Dubai-based partner of private equity firm Gateway Partners, said Zohr “will be a game changer for Egypt” and the company’s fund, which invests in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, is looking at several opportunities in Egypt.
The gas discoveries should eventually make Egypt a gas exporter and boost its plans to become a regional energy hub.
Besides the gas, private equity firms say reforms launched since the end of 2016 that secured a $12 billion loan program from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have shifted sentiment enough to spur investment, despite the risks.
One of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s biggest challenges is to end an Islamist insurgency which has started to shift its attacks from the remote Sinai peninsula to larger cities.
Investors, however, say they are more concerned the government might deviate from reforms agreed with the IMF, such as cutting energy subsidies further, to keep voters on side ahead of presidential elections this year.
Investors also want inflation to fall and for the government to press ahead with reforms to tackle the red tape that has left Egypt ranked 128 out of 190 countries in the World Bank’s ease of doing business index.
’Economic outperformer’
Since November 2016, Egypt has devalued its currency, removed limits on foreign currency transfers, lifted hard currency restrictions for importers, cut subsidies for domestic fuel and raised value-added tax.
“We’re very positive on Egypt,” said Karim El Solh, co-founder and chief executive of Abu Dhabi’s Gulf Capital, which has invested some $200 million in Egypt.
“In the region, it is set to be the economic outperformer in 2018, especially after these very strong and needed structural reforms,” he said.
Investment by overseas investors in short-term, liquid instruments such as Treasury bills has been heavy since Egypt devalued its currency and raised interest rates.
Throughout 2017, investors snapped up bills with maturities of three to 12 months yielding as much as 22 percent. By early December, foreign holdings of Treasury bills had hit a record 338 billion Egyptian pounds ($19 billion), up from 532 million pounds in mid-2016, central bank data showed.
In US dollar terms, foreign holdings of Treasury bills are now nearly three times the previous high in 2010 — with about half the investment coming in the last few months of 2017.
Charles Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital, estimates the Egyptian pound is 16 percent undervalued compared to its long-term average and with inflation coming down from its 2017 peak of 33 percent, Egypt remains one of the most attractive emerging markets.
The stock market, which has a capitalization of $45 billion, has also benefited from net inflows of foreign funds, which came to 7.5 billion pounds in 2017, the highest since a record 8.4 billion pounds in 2010, according to exchange data.
Since the pound floated on Nov. 3, 2016 — slumping from 8.8 to the dollar to 17.7 now — the Egyptian blue-chip index has climbed more than 70 percent.
Robertson expects the rally to continue for the next two years now the shock of the 2016 currency devaluation has passed, economic growth is picking up and high inflation is receding.
Direct investment
More importantly for Egypt’s longer-term stability, investment by foreign companies and acquisitions by foreign private equity firms are rising — the kind of commitment that is less likely to be affected by short-term market fluctuations.
Economists say the fact Egypt has a population above 90 million, the third highest in Africa behind Nigeria and Ethiopia, coupled with a young and growing labor force make it an attractive destination.
Net inflows of foreign direct investment into Egypt came to $7.9 billion in the year to the end of June, according to government data, helped by the energy sector. While below the government’s $10 billion target, it was the fourth annual increase in a row and the highest since $8.1 billion in 2008-09.
Inflows peaked at $13.2 billion in 2007-08 before plummeting to $2.2 billion in 2011 during the Arab Spring uprising that ousted long-serving President Hosni Mubarak, disrupted the economy and ushered in years of political instability.
Partly because of the improving outlook for gas supplies and a growing solar power industry, foreign private equity firms are expecting a surge in investment in the energy sector.
Hashem Fouad, chief investment officer at Dubai-based Enara Capital, said his firm was working with Chinese interests on opportunities in Egypt.
“We achieved financial closes worth $200 million in the renewable energy sector in 2017 and expect more deals this year,” he said.
Others are focusing on sectors likely to benefit as the economy expands, and exporters helped by the weaker currency. Solh at Gulf Capital said his firm was looking at companies in health care, education, water and food.
“We are backing companies that are very export-oriented, earning hard currencies in dollars or euros so we are partially hedged to the currency,” he said.
Gateway Partners is also focusing on export-orientated sectors and consumer industries.
“We believe sectors related to consumer — retail, real estate, health care and education — and export manufacturing industries like textiles, agri-processing, and many other manufactured products are attractive,” said Malas.
The impact of the devaluation on exports and imports, coupled with the surge in foreign fund inflows, has also helped Egypt start to address the chronic trade deficit and balance of payments problems that have plagued the country for a decade.
The central bank’s foreign reserves surged to $37 billion in December from just over $24 billion a year earlier, while gross domestic product growth accelerated to 5.2 percent in the July-September quarter from 3.4 percent a year ago.
Surge in foreign fund inflows sets stage for Egyptian boom
Surge in foreign fund inflows sets stage for Egyptian boom
Saudi Arabia’s property market set for growth with billions in new projects
- The largest PIF projects in the Kingdom are in the Asir region
- At least 50 percent of the country’s tourism is expected be centered in Riyadh
RIYADH: The Saudi real estate landscape is poised for substantial growth, as industry leaders, policymakers, and investors gathered at the Real Estate Future Forum in Riyadh to unveil major developments in property investment and tourism.
Highlighting the Kingdom’s ambitious Vision 2030 objectives, Asir Gov. Prince Turki bin Talal revealed the Public Investment Fund is spearheading nine major projects in the region, with four already launched and five in progress. “The largest PIF projects in the Kingdom are in the Asir region,” the governor said, emphasizing the region’s pivotal role in Saudi Arabia’s evolving property market.
The governor highlighted the region’s growing hospitality sector, with between 6,000 and 8,000 approved hotel rooms currently available.
He also announced that Abha’s World Cup bid had been officially recognized as the best in the Kingdom by the Ministry of Sports.
Meanwhile, Al-Ahsa Gov. Prince Saud bin Talal unveiled plans to expand the region’s hospitality offerings. “Our pipeline includes over seven or eight hotels and more than 25 rural lodges, including three five-star hotels: Hilton, Radisson Blu, and Hilton Garden Inn,” he said. Saudi Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb noted the rapid expansion of the Kingdom’s hospitality industry, with hotel room capacity expected to grow from 475,000 to 675,000 by 2030. Al-Khateeb also discussed the impact of major infrastructure projects, such as the King Salman International Airport expansion and the launch of Riyadh Air, which are central to the Kingdom’s hyper-tourism strategy.
He forecast that at least 50 percent of the country’s tourism will be centered in Riyadh, but emphasized efforts to keep the capital’s share from exceeding 80-90 percent. In the financial sector, Mohammed El-Kuwaiz, chairman of the Capital Market Authority, discussed the increasing role of real estate in the Kingdom’s investment market.
“Around 20 percent of the 55 initial public offerings currently under review involve real estate companies,” he revealed.
El-Kuwaiz emphasized the importance of financial stability and transparency for companies looking to list, advising them to treat investors as partners.
In a significant move, he also announced that listed companies owning properties in Makkah and Madinah can now welcome foreign investors immediately.
SAMA permits full public launch of STC Bank in digitalization push
RIYADH: The Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, has authorized STC Bank to launch its full operations in Saudi Arabia.
As the first licensed digital bank in the Kingdom, STC Bank’s approval marks a significant step in SAMA’s ongoing strategy to accelerate digital transformation and enhance competitiveness in the banking sector.
At the same time, the move ensures the safeguarding of financial stability, according to a press statement from the central bank.
This milestone underscores the growing dynamism and potential of Saudi Arabia’s digital economy, while also highlighting SAMA’s efforts to create a regulatory framework that fosters innovation within the financial sector.
“SAMA is committed to strengthening the resilience of the banking sector, boosting its appeal, and increasing its role in achieving Saudi Vision 2030 and the Kingdom’s broader national objectives. This includes empowering entrepreneurs and financial institutions to deliver innovative financial services to the Saudi market,” the central bank said.
The approval follows a significant step taken in April 2024, when SAMA formally approved the transition of STC Pay — the mobile financial services arm of Saudi Telecom Co. — to STC Bank. Following a nine-month beta launch, STC Bank is now poised to begin its full banking operations.
Additionally, in December 2024, SAMA also gave the green light to D360 Bank, another digital financial institution, allowing it to begin its operations in the Kingdom.
Al-Habtoor Group halts investment plans in Lebanon amid growing instability
DUBAI: UAE-based business conglomerate Al-Habtoor Group has abandoned its plans to reenter the Lebanese market, citing ongoing “unrest and instability” caused by armed militias.
In a statement issued on Tuesday, Khalaf Al-Habtoor, chairman of the group, explained that recent developments had deeply shaken his optimism.
“My team and I had been diligently preparing to launch new projects and expand existing investments in Lebanon, encouraged by promising signs such as the election of Gen. Joseph Aoun as president and the nomination of Nawaf Salam as prime minister. Both individuals embody integrity, credibility, and respect, instilling renewed hope among the Lebanese people — and investors like myself — for the country’s future,” the statement read.
However, he said that the continued dominance of armed militias, particularly what he described as “Shiite militias”, and the “absence of rule of law” have made it impossible for investors to proceed with confidence.
Tensions escalated with Hezbollah supporters holding rallies in Beirut, including in Christian-majority neighborhoods, further raising sectarian divisions. The protests followed the return of Shiite residents to southern Lebanon after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was recently extended.
In his statement, Al-Habtoor lamented the lack of decisive action from Lebanese authorities, including the army and the Ministry of Defense, in addressing these disturbances, noting that the situation was only worsening.
Unless the new government takes a firm stance against those working to destabilize the country, hopes for a “new Lebanon” will remain unfulfilled, he said.
Al-Habtoor clarified that the decision to pull out was made after careful analysis and close monitoring of the situation. As a result, neither he, his family, nor any group managers would be traveling to Lebanon.
Earlier this month, and following the wave of optimism that followed the election of President Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, Al-Habtoor told Arab News in an interview that his group intended to move forward with plans to reopen its five-story mall in Beirut and relaunch the Habtoorland amusement park in Jamhour, contingent on Lebanon’s government delivering the promised security and stability measures.
The group, a multibillion-dollar global conglomerate, has diverse interests spanning luxury hotels, shopping malls, and more. As of January last year, its investments in Lebanon were estimated at around $1 billion.
Experts predict suburban boom, smarter housing designs in Saudi Arabia
RIYADH: The rise of community living and the increased accessibility of suburbs, driven by advancements in transportation, are transforming real estate trends in Saudi Arabia, experts say.
At the Real Estate Future Forum in Riyadh on Jan. 28, Khaled Elsehamy, chief development officer for real estate at the National Housing Co., highlighted the significant shift in the Kingdom's real estate sector. According to Elsehamy, more people are now viewing suburban areas as attractive living options.
During a panel discussion, Elsehamy also noted a growing preference among Saudi residents for smaller housing units, moving away from the traditional multigenerational homes.
“Suburbs are becoming increasingly appealing,” Elsehamy said. “People now find areas outside the central cities more attractive due to their convenience, accessibility, and proximity to essential services. They can easily connect with the city whenever they wish.”
He continued: “The rising costs of utilities, furniture, and maintenance have led people to seek smaller, more efficient homes. There is a growing demand for durable, modular designs that offer long-term savings while meeting modern needs.”
Elsehamy’s remarks came just a day after NHC CEO Mohammad Al-Buty announced that lower interest rates in 2025 will help the company surpass its 2024 sales targets. This aligns with NHC’s broader ambition to become the leading real estate developer in the region and stay at the forefront of the industry.
Elsehamy also discussed the shifting mindset of Saudi homebuyers, noting a stark contrast to traditional purchasing habits. “In the past, people bought homes for their children and grandchildren. That’s no longer the case,” he explained.
“Today, people are looking for homes that fit different life stages. They think, ‘I’ll live in this house now, move to a bigger one later, and eventually downsize to a smaller place by the beach in 20 years.’”
The NHC official emphasized that community living is driving new trends in Saudi Arabia’s housing market. “Community living allows residents to interact more with those around them, and it often includes amenities like community centers where people can work, especially those with remote work options.”
Echoing these sentiments, Andrew Baum, emeritus professor at Oxford, also spoke during the panel, highlighting how modern homebuyers prioritize accessibility over location.
“Previously, location was everything in real estate,” said Baum. “But today, accessibility has become the key factor. The new metro in Riyadh is set to significantly impact property values, opening up newly accessible areas.”
Oussama Kabbani, group chief Development officer at ROSHN, emphasized that Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector has reached a global standard post-Vision 2030. Reflecting on ROSHN’s approach to enhancing community living standards, Kabbani explained that understanding customer needs is central to their success.
“It all comes down to data and actively listening to your customers,” he said. “We conduct numerous surveys online and engage directly with residents to understand what’s missing. We focus a lot on creating activities for children, with educational and cultural events to keep them engaged.”
He continued: “We also place a strong emphasis on sports. It's not complicated — you don’t need to spend a fortune to make people happy. The key is knowing what makes them happy and delivering it with quality.”
Kabbani also noted the growing sophistication of the community real estate sector. He predicted that investments in senior living spaces, alongside data centers and healthcare facilities, would soon become more prominent.
“Our communities are designed with schools, community centers, playgrounds, and more,” Kabbani added. “When people choose to live in our communities, they’re not just buying a home — they’re buying a lifestyle. And we’re committed to ensuring that lifestyle is truly lived.”
During the session, Nasser Al-Kadi, chief investment officer at Awqaf Investment, praised the recent regulatory reforms in Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector, noting their positive impact on the market.
He emphasized the importance of embracing technological advancements to further modernize the sector. “The regulatory changes in Saudi Arabia have not only attracted external capital but also increased transparency within the industry,” Al-Kadi said.
He continued: “Technology isn’t just a tool for optimization — it’s a driver of growth and innovation. We haven’t yet seen the full potential of these technologies in the Kingdom’s real estate sector.”
Robert J. Di Franco, chief development officer at Roaya Co., also highlighted the growing influence of technology, stating that innovation is fundamentally reshaping every aspect of the real estate industry.
“Innovation and technology are shaping everything we do — from pre-acquisition phases to market analysis, accessing real-time transactional data, to how we manage construction projects and facility handovers. Technology is now integrated into every part of our process,” Di Franco said.
Foreign investments set to revive Makkah’s property market: Ladun CEO
RIYADH: Saudi construction firm Ladun Investment Co. expects a surge in Makkah’s real estate sector following a key ruling by the market regulator allowing foreign investment in Saudi-listed companies owning property in the holy cities.
In an interview with Arab News at the Real Estate Future Forum in Riyadh, Hassan Al-Hazmi, CEO of the Tadawul-listed firm, emphasized that the new regulations are poised to drive investor confidence in Makkah’s market, which has faced stagnation in recent years.
On the event’s opening day, the Kingdom’s Capital Market Authority announced that the Makkah and Madinah real estate markets will now be open to foreign investors. However, investments are limited to shares or convertible debt instruments of listed companies, with total non-Saudi ownership — individuals and legal entities — capped at 49 percent of a company’s shares.
The decision is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Saudi Arabia’s capital market and support the Vision 2030 economic diversification agenda.
“As Mohammed El-Kuwaiz, chairman of the CMA, mentioned yesterday (Jan. 27), the regulations have been studied for more than three years. He said they were supposed to be approved two years ago but were delayed to make them more holistic. There is now a big study regarding foreign investors having ownership in Makkah, Madinah, and the Kingdom as a whole,” said Al-Hazmi.
He said Ladun is focused on Makkah and anticipates growth. “We already manage and own assets in Makkah worth more than SR3.2 billion ($853.1 million).”
Al-Hazmi noted that Makkah’s real estate sector had faced stagnation since 2014, particularly due to the impact of COVID-19 on religious tourism and travel. However, he believes that the sector is on the brink of recovery.
“We already see signs of recovery — companies owning assets in Makkah are experiencing a rise in their share prices. This is very positive, and we anticipated this shift and planned accordingly,” he added.
Ladun is also focused on localizing its workforce and increasing Saudi employment opportunities, aligning with government initiatives.
“Just today, we signed an agreement with the Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing regarding human capital and how we are going to localize more Saudis. At the managerial level, including our C-suite, we have Saudis,” Al-Hazmi said.
He added: “In middle management, we have many young men and women who are part of our company, and they are truly giving us great empathy and trust in ourselves to move forward. This is one of the pillars of Vision 2030.”
In November, Ladun announced a new investment in Jabal Omar Development Co. in partnership with Musharaka Capital, acquiring a land plot worth SR600 million with an expected revenue of approximately SR2 billion. This investment is viewed as a major step in reinforcing Ladun’s presence in Makkah’s evolving real estate market.
Al-Hazmi also highlighted the broader impact of Vision 2030 on the Saudi real estate market, particularly in Makkah, which he sees as a prime beneficiary.
“Stability brings prosperity, and Saudi has enjoyed stability for 100 years now, that brings prosperity. We see it. We see it around the region,” he said.
Referring to comments made by Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Hazmi added: “Larry mentioned that if we take the US aside, we will find the most stable area in the world the GCC countries. Prosperity will be there.”
With a focus on sustainable expansion, strategic investments, and market recovery, Ladun Investment Co. remains optimistic about its role in shaping Makkah’s future real estate landscape.
