ANKARA: A Turkish military operation in the Kurdish-held northwestern Syrian district of Afrin, on the Turkish border, looks to be imminent.
The Turkish Army began shelling positions held by the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) from a border post in the southern province of Hatay on Saturday.
The offense came just an hour after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinted at an upcoming Afrin operation.
“If terrorists in Afrin do not withdraw, Turkey will destroy the province. Within a week, they’ll see what we’re up to,” Erdogan said during a speech in the eastern province of Elazig.
In recent months, Erdogan has used lyrics from an old Turkish song to warn Syrian Kurds that Turkey’s forces “might come suddenly one night.” Turkey’s recently established observation posts in the de-escalation zone in Idlib also overlook Afrin.
Ankara hopes to prevent the Syrian Kurdish PYD, which it regards as a terrorist organization closely linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), from carving out a “terror corridor” up to the Mediterranean.
But a military operation poses considerable risk to regional dynamics, something Turkey must surely take into consideration ahead of the upcoming Sochi Congress on Jan. 29 and 30.
Any such operation is likely to require the consent of Russia, the main sponsor of the Sochi talks, which currently has an observation force in Afrin, and controls the district’s air space.
Sinan Hatahet, an expert on Syria at Al Sharq Forum in Istanbul, said Turkey does not care whether Arabs or Kurds control Afrin, as long as whoever is in charge prevents the PYD from establishing a sustainable presence there.
“Nevertheless, the best outcome Ankara could achieve at this stage is the withdrawal of PYD and (Kurdish-backed militia) YPG to the east of the Euphrates Valley, even it means (Syrian President Bashar) Assad regains control of Afrin,” Hatahet told Arab News.
“The PYD in Afrin is surrounded from the west, north and east by Turkey and equally hostile mainstream opposition forces, but has been able to survive through a regime-controlled route from its south to Aleppo. The PYD have not been able to control Afrin thus far, without the tacit complicity of Damascus,” he added.
But the situation that led to that complicity is changing, he explained: “In 2012, the Syrian Army was under constant attack from the opposition and needed to redeploy its forces near the main areas of strategic interest. Six years later, the Syrian government feels it has won the war, and it is no longer in a situation to tolerate the PYD outside its comfort zone.”
Oytun Orhan, a Syria expert from Ankara think tank ORSAM, said the Turkey’s military activity in the region should be seen from two angles.
“If Moscow didn’t give a green light, it means Turkey wants to take the initiative, without waiting for consent from Russia, regardless of the risks,” Orhan told Arab News. “Such a move will increase the pressure on Russia to conduct a coordinated operation in Afrin.”
According to Orhan, any ground operation in Afrin, without the consent of Russia, may be targeted by regime forces or by Iran-backed militias, as was the case in the offensive on Al-Bab when three Turkish soldiers were killed by regime airstrikes.
“In this case, the YPG may be covertly provided with weapons to protect itself,” he said.
If Turkey does proceed without Russia’s consent, Orhan suggested it could be seen as a show of strength to Russia, sparked by the disagreement between Moscow and Ankara over the participation of the PYD at Sochi.
But Orhan also underlined that the recent drone attacks on Russian military bases in Syria, which Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on Thursday were “a provocation” intended to damage relations between Turkey and Russia may have had the opposite effect.
“Following the assassination of the Russian ambassador to Turkey, Andrey Karlov, Turkey and Russia cooperated further to investigate the case, and they also accelerated that cooperation under the Astana process,” Orhan said. “The same may happen after this drone attack.”
Mete Sohtaoglu, an Istanbul-based Middle East researcher, thinks the aim of any Turkish military operation would be the blockage of a logistical entry point in the east of Afrin, and control of the area around the northwestern city of Tel Rifaat, to cut off the terrorists’ weapons supply.
“Turkey is planning to increase its military presence in Syria, with the goal of ensuring a Syria without Assad,” he told Arab News. “Ankara and Moscow evaluate the dynamics of Afrin and Idlib separately.”
Sohtaoglu also anticipates that control of Afrin may be transferred to Assad’s regime before Turkey has the chance to launch any military operation.
Hatahet, for one, thinks it is too early to judge the potential impact of such an operation on the Astana or Sochi peace initiatives, sponsored by Russia, Turkey and Iran.
“There are many reasons why some may wish to undermine the solidity of this untraditional association and partnership,” he said. “Meanwhile there is a genuine co-dependency that exists between the three states in regards to stabilization in Syria. None of them can achieve its goals in Syria on its own.”
Turkish military preps for new Afrin operation in Syria
Turkish military preps for new Afrin operation in Syria
Israel records 160 launches fom Lebanon as Hezbollah targets Tel Aviv, south
- Medical agencies reported that at least 11 people were wounded, including a man in a “moderate to serious” condition
JERUSALEM: Israel’s army said Hezbollah fired around 160 projectiles into its territory from Lebanon on Sunday, with the group saying its attacks had targeted the Tel Aviv area and Israel’s south.
The Iran-backed group said in a statement that it had “launched, for the first time, an aerial attack using a swarm of attack drones on the Ashdod naval base” in southern Israel.
Later, it said it fired “a barrage of advanced missiles and a swarm of attack drones” at a “military target” in Tel Aviv, and had also launched a volley of missiles at the Glilot army intelligence base in the city’s suburbs.
The Israeli military did not comment on the specific attack claims when contacted by AFP.
But it said earlier that air raid sirens had sounded in several locations in central and northern Israel, including in the greater Tel Aviv suburbs.
It later reported that “approximately 160 projectiles that were fired by the Hezbollah terrorist organization have crossed from Lebanon into Israel.”
Some of the projectiles were shot down.
Medical agencies reported that at least 11 people were wounded, including a man in a “moderate to serious” condition.
AFP images from Petah Tikva, near Tel Aviv, showed several damaged and burned-out cars, and a house pockmarked by shrapnel.
The wave of projectiles follows at least four deadly Israeli strikes in central Beirut in the past week, including one that killed Hezbollah spokesman Mohammed Afif.
In a speech on Wednesday, Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem had said the response to the recent strikes on the capital “must be expected on central Tel Aviv.”
The Lebanese army, meanwhile, said that a soldier was killed on Sunday and 18 others injured, “including some with severe wounds, as a result of an Israeli attack targeting a Lebanese army center in Amriyeh.”
Though the Lebanese army is not a party to the war between Israel and Hezbollah, Israeli strikes have killed 19 Lebanese soldiers in the last two months, authorities have said.
Since September 23, Israel has intensified its Lebanon air campaign, later sending in ground troops after nearly a year of limited exchanges of fire initiated by Hezbollah in support of its ally Hamas after the Palestinian group’s October 7, 2023 attack, which sparked the Gaza war.
Lebanon’s health ministry says at least 3,670 people have been killed in the country since October 2023, most of them since September this year.
Israeli strike on Lebanese army center kills soldier, wounds 18 others
- It was the latest in a series of Israeli strikes that have killed over 40 Lebanese troops
- Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister condemned it as an assault on US-led ceasefire efforts
BEIRUT: An Israeli strike on a Lebanese army center on Sunday killed one soldier and wounded 18 others, the Lebanese military said.
It was the latest in a series of Israeli strikes that have killed over 40 Lebanese troops, even as the military has largely kept to the sidelines in the war between Israel and Hezbollah militants.
There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military, which has said previous strikes on Lebanese troops were accidental and that they are not a target of its campaign against Hezbollah.
Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, condemned it as an assault on US-led ceasefire efforts, calling it a “direct, bloody message rejecting all efforts and ongoing contacts” to end the war.
“(Israel is) again writing in Lebanese blood a brazen rejection of the solution that is being discussed,” a statement from his office read.
The strike occurred in southwestern Lebanon on the coastal road between Tyre and Naqoura, where there has been heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.
Hezbollah began firing rockets, missiles and drones into Israel after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack out of the Gaza Strip ignited the war there. Hezbollah has portrayed the attacks as an act of solidarity with the Palestinians and Hamas. Iran supports both armed groups.
Israel has launched retaliatory airstrikes since the rocket fire began, and in September the low-level conflict erupted into all-out war, as Israel launched waves of airstrikes across large parts of Lebanon and killed Hezbollah’s top leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and several of his top commanders.
Israeli airstrikes early Saturday pounded central Beirut, killing at least 20 people and wounding 66, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. Hezbollah has continued to fire regular barrages into Israel, forcing people to race for shelters and occasionally killing or wounding them.
Israeli attacks have killed more than 3,500 people in Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. The fighting has displaced about 1.2 million people, or a quarter of Lebanon’s population.
On the Israeli side, about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed by bombardments in northern Israel and in battle following Israel’s ground invasion in early October. Around 60,000 Israelis have been displaced from the country’s north.
The Biden administration has spent months trying to broker a ceasefire, and US envoy Amos Hochstein was back in the region last week.
The emerging agreement would pave the way for the withdrawal of Hezbollah militants and Israeli troops from southern Lebanon below the Litani River in accordance with the UN Security Council resolution that ended the 2006 war. Lebanese troops would patrol the area, with the presence of UN peacekeepers.
Lebanon’s army reflects the religious diversity of the country and is respected as a national institution, but it does not have the military capability to impose its will on Hezbollah or resist Israel’s invasion.
EU’s Borrell urges pressure on Israel, Hezbollah to accept US ceasefire proposal
- The EU’s foreign policy chief warned that Lebanon was “on the brink of collapse”
BEIRUT: The European Union’s foreign policy chief called on Sunday during a visit to Beirut for pressure to be exerted on both the Israeli government and on Lebanon’s Hezbollah to accept a US ceasefire proposal.
Speaking at a news conference in Beirut, Josep Borell also urged Lebanese leaders to pick a president to end a two-year power vacuum in the country, and he pledged 200 million euros in support for Lebanon’s armed forces.
Lebanon on 'brink of collapse'
The EU’s foreign policy chief warned that Lebanon was “on the brink of collapse” after Israel launched an intense air campaign two months ago following nearly a year of clashes with Hezbollah.
“Back in September I came and was still hoping we could prevent a full-fledged war of Israel attacking Lebanon. Two months later Lebanon is on the brink of collapse,” Josep Borrell told reporters in Beirut.
Israeli army orders Gaza City suburb evacuated, spurring new displacement wave
- Israeli military blames Hamas rocket fire for renewed evacuation directive
- Palestinians say hospitals in north Gaza barely functioning
CAIRO: The Israeli military issued new evacuation orders to residents in areas of an eastern Gaza City suburb, setting off a new wave of displacement on Sunday, and a Gaza hospital director was injured in an Israeli drone attack, Palestinian medics said.
The new orders for the Shejaia suburb posted by the Israeli army spokesperson on X on Saturday night were blamed on Palestinian militants firing rockets from that heavily built-up district in the north of the Gaza Strip.
“For your safety, you must evacuate immediately to the south,” the military’s post said. The rocket volley on Saturday was claimed by Hamas’ armed wing, which said it had targeted an Israeli army base over the border.
Footage circulated on social and Palestinian media, which Reuters could not immediately verify, showed residents leaving Shejaia on donkey carts and rickshaws, with others, including children carrying backpacks, walking.
Families living in the targeted areas began fleeing their homes after nightfall on Saturday and into Sunday’s early hours, residents and Palestinian media said — the latest in multiple waves of displacement since the war began 13 months ago.
In central Gaza, health officials said at least 10 Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes on the urban camps of Al-Maghazi and Al-Bureij since Saturday night.
Hospital director wounded by gunfire
In north Gaza, where Israeli forces have been operating against regrouping Hamas militants since early last month, health officials said an Israeli drone dropped bombs on Kamal Adwan Hospital, injuring its director Hussam Abu Safiya.
“This will not stop us from completing our humanitarian mission and we will continue to do this job at any cost,” Abu Safiya said in a video statement circulated by the health ministry on Sunday.
“We are being targeted daily. They targeted me a while ago but this will not deter us...,” he said from his hospital bed.
Israeli forces say armed militants use civilian buildings including housing blocks, hospitals and schools for operational cover. Hamas denies this, accusing Israeli forces of indiscriminately targeting populated areas.
Kamal Adwan is one of three hospitals in north Gaza that are barely operational as the health ministry said the Israeli forces have detained and expelled medical staff and prevented emergency medical, food and fuel supplies from reaching them.
In the past few weeks, Israel said it had facilitated the delivery of medical and fuel supplies and the transfer of patients from north Gaza hospitals in collaboration with international agencies such as the World Health Organization.
Residents in three embattled north Gaza towns — Jabalia, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun — said Israeli forces had blown up hundreds of houses since renewing operations in an area that Israel said months ago had been cleared of militants.
Palestinians say Israel appears determined to depopulate the area permanently to create a buffer zone along the northern edge of Gaza, an accusation Israel denies.
Israel’s campaign in Gaza has killed more than 44,000 people, uprooted nearly all the enclave’s 2.3 million population at least once, according to Gaza officials, while reducing wide swathes of the narrow coastal territory to rubble.
The war erupted in response to a cross-border attack by Hamas-led militants on Oct. 7, 2023 in which gunmen killed around 1,200 people and took more than 250 hostages back to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies.
Iran to hold nuclear talks with three European powers in Geneva on Friday, Kyodo reports
- A senior Iranian official confirmed that the meeting would go ahead next Friday
DUBAI: Iran plans to hold talks about its disputed nuclear program with three European powers on Nov. 29 in Geneva, Japan’s Kyodo news agency reported on Sunday, days after the UN atomic watchdog passed a resolution against Tehran.
Iran reacted to the resolution, which was proposed by Britain, France, Germany and the United States, with what government officials called various measures such as activating numerous new and advanced centrifuges, machines that enrich uranium.
Kyodo said Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s government was seeking a solution to the nuclear impasse ahead of the inauguration in January of US President-elect Donald Trump.
A senior Iranian official confirmed that the meeting would go ahead next Friday, adding that “Tehran has always believed that the nuclear issue should be resolved through diplomacy. Iran has never left the talks.”
In 2018, the then-Trump administration exited Iran’s 2015 nuclear pact with six major powers and reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to violate the pact’s nuclear limits, with moves such as rebuilding stockpiles of enriched uranium, refining it to higher fissile purity and installing advanced centrifuges to speed up output.
Indirect talks between President Joe Biden’s administration and Tehran to try to revive the pact have failed, but Trump said in his election campaign in September that “We have to make a deal, because the consequences are impossible. We have to make a deal.”
