Peak oil demand and its implications for Gulf producers

A photo taken on December 14, 2017 shows flames rising at the Bin Omar natural gas facility, part of the Basra Gas Company, north of the southern Iraqi port of Basra. (AFP)
Updated 20 January 2018
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Peak oil demand and its implications for Gulf producers

LONDON: Even if oil consumption reaches a peak and then starts to fall, the world will still need large quantities of oil for many decades to come.
The prediction is contained in a thoughtful paper co-authored by Spencer Dale, chief economist of BP, and Bassam Fattouh, director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
“Global oil demand is likely to continue growing for a period, driven by rising prosperity in fast-growing developing economies,” they wrote in a paper published on Monday.
“But that pace of growth is likely to slow over time and eventually plateau, as efficiency improvements accelerate.”
The implication is that consumption is likely to reach a maximum at some point and then start to fall, though the timing and magnitude of the peak are highly uncertain and very sensitive to assumptions.
And even once demand has peaked, consumption is unlikely to drop sharply, the authors argue, given the inherent advantages of oil as an energy source, particularly its energy density.
“Peaking oil demand is not expected to trigger a significant discontinuity or sharp fall in demand,” they wrote.
Under most scenarios, the world will still be consuming tens of millions of barrels of oil per day through the middle of the century.
There are sufficient known oil resources to meet all the world’s oil demand through 2050 twice over, according to BP estimates.
But given the natural decline in output from existing fields, substantial investment will be needed to turn those resources into reserves and produce them.
The predicted peaking of consumption, coupled with vast resources, and new production made possible by hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have transformed the long-term outlook for the oil industry.
The dominant narrative, which before 2008 was characterised by fears about future scarcity and oil supplies running out, has been transformed into one about future abundance.
Some now worry that many of those resources will never be needed and may become stranded assets — a welcome development for climate campaigners but a potential problem for oil producers.
Peak oil demand signals “a shift in paradigm: From an age of scarcity to an age of abundance, with potentially profound implications for oil markets,” according to Dale and Fattouh.
In an era of abundance, oil markets are likely to become increasingly competitive, as resource owners compete to secure market share and produce their reserves rather than risk them being left in the ground.
“Faced with the possibility that significant amounts of recoverable oil may never be extracted, low-cost producers have a strong incentive to use their comparative advantage to squeeze out high-cost producers and gain market share.”
Better to have money in the bank than leave oil in the ground.
As the oil market becomes more competitive, low-cost producers will find it more profitable to switch to a high-volume, lower price strategy — in contrast to the old strategy of restricting volumes and raising prices.
The argument applies especially to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi.
The implication is that many producing countries will see revenues and formerly high resource rents decline, to the benefit of consumers.
In theory, competition for market share should drive oil prices down to the marginal cost of extraction, which the authors suggest could be lower than $10 per barrel for the major Middle East producers.
But these countries rely heavily on oil revenues to fund government operations, defense, healthcare, education and social safety nets. They need prices well above the marginal cost of extraction.
To be sustainable, oil prices must be high enough to cover these “social costs” as well as the much lower costs of physical extraction.
The authors cite fiscal breakeven prices as a proxy for social costs and say breakevens for five major Middle Eastern producers averaged $60 per barrel in 2016 compared with a physical cost of production of just $10.
Many low-cost producers recognize the need to diversify their economies away from dependence on oil but experience suggests such transitions take decades to complete.
In the meantime, the authors argue, many low-cost producers will try to resist the shift to a higher-volume, lower-price strategy while they try to make progress with the transition.
The problem with this argument is that it makes oil prices a function of social costs. In reality, it is the other way around — price drives social spending.
Dale and Fattouh argue that “it is likely that many low-cost producers will delay adopting a more competitive strategy until they have made significant progress in reforming their economies. This is likely to slow the speed at which the new competitive oil market emerges.”
“The shift to a more competitive oil market environment won’t just happen on its own accord, it requires a critical mass of low-cost producers both to recognize the need to adopt a more competitive strategy and, more importantly, to have reformed their economies sufficiently for them to be able to adopt such a strategy sustainably.”
If social costs in many low-cost producing countries remain high, according to Dale and Fattouh, that is likely to slow the pace at which a more competitive market takes hold, until they can reduce them.
Fattouh and Dale assume that Saudi Arabia and the other low-cost Middle East oil producers can successfully exercise market power, restricting production to keep prices high.
But they are probably overstating OPEC’s market power.
In the 1980s, OPEC’s market power was broken by the emergence of rival oil supplies from the North Sea as well as Russia, Alaska and China. In the 2010s, its market power was hit by the emergence of US shale, Canadian heavy oil and deepwater projects.
In practice, prices have been driven by the cost of developing and producing alternative supplies outside the major producing economies of the Middle East.
The cost of these alternative supplies is well above the $10 physical extraction cost of the major Middle East fields — but it may or may not be high enough to cover their social costs.
In future, the major oil producers will also have to reckon with increasing competition from other forms of energy.
Dale and Fattouh conclude that social costs and the pace of economic reform in the major oil-producing countries will have a decisive impact on oil prices over the next few decades.
In practice, the opposite is probably true. Oil prices and the degree of competition from other sources of supply, as well as electric vehicles, will have a decisive impact on the producers’ social spending and the rate of diversification.
• John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.


New center positions Saudi Arabia for advanced manufacturing leadership

Updated 01 June 2025
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New center positions Saudi Arabia for advanced manufacturing leadership

  • Integrated initiatives aim to enhance industrial productivity and efficiency
  • Center brings together programs and initiatives that enable the adoption of modern manufacturing technologies

RIYADH: The global industrial sector is witnessing a radical transformation toward adopting Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies, prompting countries to reconsider traditional manufacturing methods and adopt smart solutions that include automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and data-driven systems to improve production efficiency and reduce operational costs. 

According to the Saudi Press Agency, the Kingdom is not only keeping pace with the global industrial transformation but also aims to lead it through strategic initiatives and specialized programs that promote smart industry practices and accelerate the adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies.

This will enhance the competitiveness of Saudi Arabia’s industrial sector both regionally and globally, aligning with the goals of Vision 2030 and the National Industrial Strategy to position the Kingdom as a leading industrial power, one that supports global supply chains and exports high-tech products globally.

The Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources is undertaking this ambitious transformation by establishing an integrated and comprehensive national system to enhance advanced manufacturing, according to SPA. 

It has launched the Advanced Manufacturing and Production Center, which brings together all programs and initiatives that enable the adoption of modern manufacturing technologies and stimulate smart and innovative industrial solutions. 

This initiative is in cooperation with various government entities related to the technology, research, and innovation sectors and in partnership with several global leaders in industrial technology. 

The efforts under the Advanced Manufacturing and Production Center include the Future Factories Program Initiative, the Industrial Beacons Program, the Accelerated Manufacturing Program, the Capability Centers Network, and the Operational Excellence Program, reported SPA. 

These initiatives collectively support the center’s vision of becoming a unified national platform that accelerates the adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies. They also serve as a bridge to help local manufacturers access cutting-edge solutions that improve efficiency, enhance quality, and reduce costs across the industrial sector. 

The center aims to boost productivity and competitiveness in the manufacturing sector by localizing advanced and sustainable technologies, creating an attractive environment for industrial investment, and supporting skill development through its Capability Centers Network. It also offers experiential learning opportunities and provides advisory services to help industrial establishments adopt advanced manufacturing practices. 

The efforts of the ministry are aligned with several government entities that support the center’s vision and objectives.

In 2022, the ministry launched the Future Factories initiative to support the smart transformation journey of industrial establishments, aiming to automate 4,000 Saudi factories and increase their production efficiency, reduce reliance on unskilled labor, and promote the adoption of advanced industrial solutions and practices. 

The initiative offers numerous incentives and enablers to support the digital transformation of national factories, including financing solutions, consulting services, and the development and qualification of human resources to leverage the latest manufacturing technologies. 

It also helps industrial establishments assess their technological maturity and develop transformation plans to adopt operational excellence practices and advanced manufacturing solutions, including AI, robotics, the Internet of Things, and big data analytics. 

To support industrial transformation in the Kingdom and achieve global leadership in adopting advanced manufacturing technologies, the ministry launched the Industrial Beacons program. 

This undertaking aims to enable leading Saudi factories to adopt Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies, thereby enhancing their production efficiency and qualifying them to receive international recognition within the Global Lighthouse Network, an affiliate of the World Economic Forum, by 2030. 

During the launch ceremony of the Advanced Manufacturing and Production Center, the Ministry announced 10 national industrial companies that committed to achieving the standards of the Industrial Beacons initiative. 

With the launch of the Advanced Manufacturing and Production Center and its targeted initiatives to promote advanced technologies and foster research and innovation in the industrial sector, the Kingdom signals that its ambitions extend beyond simply keeping pace with global industrial trends.


Global production of sustainable aviation fuel to reach 2m tonnes in 2025: IATA

Updated 01 June 2025
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Global production of sustainable aviation fuel to reach 2m tonnes in 2025: IATA

  • Ensuring success of Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation is crucial, says IATA head
  • Sufficient government measures needed to meet decarbonization efforts, Willie Walsh added

RIYADH: Global sustainable aviation fuel production is expected to double to reach 2 million tonnes in 2025 compared to the previous year, according to the International Air Transport Association. 

In a press statement issued during IATA’s Annual General Meeting, Director General Willie Walsh noted that the projected 2 million tonnes of SAF will account for just 0.7 percent of total fuel consumption this year.

The use of SAF has been increasingly prominent in recent years, as most countries have set stipulated targets to achieve net zero as part of their energy transition efforts. 

“While it is encouraging that SAF production is expected to double to 2 million tonnes in 2025, that is just 0.7 percent of aviation’s total fuel needs,” said Walsh. 

He added: “And even that relatively small amount will add $4.4 billion globally to the fuel bill. The pace of progress in ramping up production and gaining efficiencies to reduce costs must accelerate.” 

The IATA official further stated that sufficient government measures, including the implementation of effective policies, are needed to meet decarbonization efforts. 

He added that ensuring the success of the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation is crucial to offsetting carbon emissions in the aviation sector. 

Under CORSIA, an initiative launched by the International Civil Aviation Organization, airplane operators must purchase and cancel “emissions units” to offset the increase in CO2 emissions. 

“Advancing SAF production requires an increase in renewable energy production from which SAF is derived. Secondly, it also requires policies to ensure SAF is allocated an appropriate portion of renewable energy production,” said IATA in the statement. 

In a separate statement, IATA said that $1.3 billion in airline funds are blocked from repatriation by governments as of the end of April.

The industry body, however, noted that this figure also represents a 25 percent improvement compared to the $1.7 billion reported for October. 

The aviation body also urged governments to remove all barriers preventing airlines from the timely repatriation of their revenues from ticket sales and other activities in accordance with international agreements and treaty obligations.

“Ensuring the timely repatriation of revenues is vital for airlines to cover dollar-denominated expenses and maintain their operations. Delays and denials violate bilateral agreements and increase exchange rate risks,” said Walsh. 

He added: “Economies and jobs rely on international connectivity. Governments must realize that it is a challenge for airlines to maintain connectivity when revenue repatriation is denied or delayed.” 


Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 10,825 

Updated 01 June 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 10,825 

  • MSCI Tadawul Index decreased 21.69 points to close at 1,382.11
  • Parallel market Nomu lost 140.52 points to end at 26,669.23

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index dipped on Sunday, losing 165.14 points, or 1.50 percent, to close at 10,825.27. 
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR4.27 billion ($1.13 billion), as 31 of the listed stocks advanced, while 215 retreated. 
The MSCI Tadawul Index decreased by 21.69 points, or 1.55 percent, to close at 1,382.11. 
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu dipped, losing 140.52 points, or 0.52 percent, to close at 26,669.23. This comes as 20 of the listed stocks advanced while 61 retreated. 

The best-performing stock was Emaar The Economic City, with its share price surging 3.91 percent to SR13.28. 

Other top performers included Sinad Holding Co., which saw its share price rise by 2.56 percent to SR10.42, and Alkhaleej Training and Education Co., which saw a 2.22 percent increase to SR25.35. 
The shares of Al Yamamah Steel Industries Co. and Morabaha Marina Financing Co. also rose by 2.19 percent and 1.85 percent to SR30.30 and SR11, respectively. 
On the downside, United Carton Industries Co. was the day’s weakest performer, with its share price declining 9.31 percent to SR40.90. 
Raydan Food Co. and Makkah Construction and Development Co. also saw declines, with their shares dropping by 8.04 percent and 7.02 percent to SR13.50 and SR90, respectively. 
Moreover, the shares of Gulf Insurance Group and Saudi Fisheries Co. dipped by 6.54 percent and 5.94 percent to SR24.02 and SR95, respectively. 
On the parallel market, Digital Research Co. led the gains, with its share price rising 13.02 percent to SR59.90. 
Future Care Trading Co. and Saudi Parts Center Co. also saw a positive change, with their shares increasing by 9.32 percent and 7.14 percent to SR3.52 and SR45, respectively. 
Conversely, Amwaj International Co. was the weakest performer on Nomu, with its share price falling 9.78 percent to close at SR36.90. 
Fad International Co. and Dar Almarkabah for Renting Cars Co. followed with decreases of 9.42 percent and 9.26 percent to SR76 and SR2.45, respectively. 


Madinah leads regional growth with 24% construction employment in Q1 

Updated 01 June 2025
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Madinah leads regional growth with 24% construction employment in Q1 

  • Construction continued to dominate amid a surge in infrastructure projects
  • Wholesale, retail trade, and vehicle maintenance sector accounted for 20% of workforce

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Madinah region recorded strong first quarter growth in 2025, led by 24 percent workforce participation in construction and 20 percent in trade, signaling diversification momentum. 

A recent report by the Madinah Chamber of Commerce outlines the region’s sectoral distribution, with construction continuing to dominate amid a surge in infrastructure projects, the Saudi Press Agency reported.  

The wholesale, retail trade, and vehicle maintenance sector, which accounted for 20 percent of the workforce, continued to thrive, demonstrating strong commercial activity and consumer demand. This segment’s high employment rate underscores Madinah’s role as a regional trading hub.   

The manufacturing sector, representing 12 percent of the workforce, showed growth that indicates the emergence of a stronger industrial base, contributing to economic diversification and reducing reliance on oil-related industries.     

Tourism, with an 11.2 percent workforce share, remained a key sector for Madinah as a destination for religious tourism, benefiting from a steady influx of pilgrims. The sector’s workforce expansion aligns with increased investment in hospitality, transportation, and tourism-related services, the SPA report added.  

The chairman of the chamber, Mazen bin Ibrahim Rajab, emphasized the focus on improving the business environment by leveraging Madinah’s economic strengths and investment opportunities.   

The report situated Madinah’s growth within broader economic trends. In 2024, the worldwide economic growth reached 3.2 percent, supported by a rebound in foreign direct investment, while inflation declined to 4.5 percent, signaling improving economic stability.     

The Kingdom’s gross domestic product grew by 4.4 percent in 2024, with non-oil sectors expanding by 5.9 percent. Madinah contributed significantly to this trend, recording a 2.8 percent increase in its GDP, reaching SR57.6 billion ($15.3 billion) in the third quarter of 2024.     

The report showed that Madinah recorded the second-highest domestic demand growth in Saudi Arabia at 11 percent, trailing only Riyadh.    

Additionally, foreign direct investment in the Kingdom surged by 36.6 percent in the third quarter 2024, reaching SR16 billion, with Madinah attracting a notable share due to its expanding industrial and commercial opportunities.   

The report also highlighted Madinah’s booming real estate and infrastructure sectors with property transactions in 2024 totaling SR10 billion, reflecting strong investor confidence.    

The job market improved significantly, with unemployment dropping from 10.3 percent in the third quarter of 2024 to 8.4 percent in the following three-month period, thanks to new employment opportunities across key sectors.     

A total of 213 development projects, valued at over SR210 billion, are currently in progress, according to the report. These include 153 commercial projects, 27 mixed-use residential and commercial developments and other projects in healthcare, education, tourism, and religious infrastructure.   

These initiatives are expected to generate more than 119,000 jobs, further boosting Madinah’s economic prospects. 


Saudi Arabia opens June round of Sah savings sukuk with 4.76% return  

Updated 01 June 2025
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Saudi Arabia opens June round of Sah savings sukuk with 4.76% return  

  • Sah is Kingdom’s first savings-focused sukuk designed for individual investors
  • Bonds structured for one-year term with fixed returns, profits to be paid at maturity

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has opened the June subscription window for its savings sukuk product “Sah,” offering a return rate of 4.76 percent, as part of its 2025 issuance calendar.    

Organized by the National Debt Management Center under the Ministry of Finance, Sah is the Kingdom’s first savings-focused sukuk designed for individual investors.    

The Shariah-compliant, riyal-denominated product is part of the local bonds program aimed at fostering financial inclusion and increasing personal savings.    

The June issuance opened for subscription from 10 a.m. on Sunday, June 1, until 3 p.m. on Tuesday, June 3.    

The bonds are structured for a one-year term with fixed returns, and profits will be paid at maturity.    

The minimum subscription is set at one bond with a value of SR1,000 ($266.56), while the maximum subscription per investor is capped at SR200,000.    

The product aligns with the Financial Sector Development Program under Saudi Vision 2030, which targets raising the national savings rate from 6 percent to 10 percent by 2030.    

The June issuance of Sah offers a slightly higher return compared to May, rising to 4.76 percent from the previous month’s 4.66 percent, reflecting marginal shifts in market conditions.    

While both issuances maintain the same structure — Shariah-compliant, riyal-denominated sukuk with a one-year maturity and fixed returns — the June window opened slightly earlier in the month, running from June 1 to June 3, compared to May’s window from May 4 to May 6.   

Subscription terms remain unchanged, with a minimum investment of SR1,000 and a cap of SR200,000 per individual.    

Both offerings are accessible through the same network of approved financial institutions.   

Sah is promoted as a secure, fee-free savings instrument offering stable, government-backed returns.    

Eligible investors must be Saudi nationals aged 18 and above and must subscribe through approved platforms provided by SNB Capital, Aljazira Capital, and Alinma Investment, as well as SAB Invest, or Al-Rajhi Capital.    

The sukuk is issued monthly, and the return rate for each tranche is determined based on prevailing market conditions.   

NDMC CEO Hani Al-Medaini said in March that the sukuk serves as a catalyst for private sector cooperation and participation in developing and launching various savings products tailored to diverse demographics.    

These initiatives could involve partnerships with banks, fund managers, financial technology companies, and more.