LONDON: Even if oil consumption reaches a peak and then starts to fall, the world will still need large quantities of oil for many decades to come.
The prediction is contained in a thoughtful paper co-authored by Spencer Dale, chief economist of BP, and Bassam Fattouh, director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
“Global oil demand is likely to continue growing for a period, driven by rising prosperity in fast-growing developing economies,” they wrote in a paper published on Monday.
“But that pace of growth is likely to slow over time and eventually plateau, as efficiency improvements accelerate.”
The implication is that consumption is likely to reach a maximum at some point and then start to fall, though the timing and magnitude of the peak are highly uncertain and very sensitive to assumptions.
And even once demand has peaked, consumption is unlikely to drop sharply, the authors argue, given the inherent advantages of oil as an energy source, particularly its energy density.
“Peaking oil demand is not expected to trigger a significant discontinuity or sharp fall in demand,” they wrote.
Under most scenarios, the world will still be consuming tens of millions of barrels of oil per day through the middle of the century.
There are sufficient known oil resources to meet all the world’s oil demand through 2050 twice over, according to BP estimates.
But given the natural decline in output from existing fields, substantial investment will be needed to turn those resources into reserves and produce them.
The predicted peaking of consumption, coupled with vast resources, and new production made possible by hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have transformed the long-term outlook for the oil industry.
The dominant narrative, which before 2008 was characterised by fears about future scarcity and oil supplies running out, has been transformed into one about future abundance.
Some now worry that many of those resources will never be needed and may become stranded assets — a welcome development for climate campaigners but a potential problem for oil producers.
Peak oil demand signals “a shift in paradigm: From an age of scarcity to an age of abundance, with potentially profound implications for oil markets,” according to Dale and Fattouh.
In an era of abundance, oil markets are likely to become increasingly competitive, as resource owners compete to secure market share and produce their reserves rather than risk them being left in the ground.
“Faced with the possibility that significant amounts of recoverable oil may never be extracted, low-cost producers have a strong incentive to use their comparative advantage to squeeze out high-cost producers and gain market share.”
Better to have money in the bank than leave oil in the ground.
As the oil market becomes more competitive, low-cost producers will find it more profitable to switch to a high-volume, lower price strategy — in contrast to the old strategy of restricting volumes and raising prices.
The argument applies especially to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi.
The implication is that many producing countries will see revenues and formerly high resource rents decline, to the benefit of consumers.
In theory, competition for market share should drive oil prices down to the marginal cost of extraction, which the authors suggest could be lower than $10 per barrel for the major Middle East producers.
But these countries rely heavily on oil revenues to fund government operations, defense, healthcare, education and social safety nets. They need prices well above the marginal cost of extraction.
To be sustainable, oil prices must be high enough to cover these “social costs” as well as the much lower costs of physical extraction.
The authors cite fiscal breakeven prices as a proxy for social costs and say breakevens for five major Middle Eastern producers averaged $60 per barrel in 2016 compared with a physical cost of production of just $10.
Many low-cost producers recognize the need to diversify their economies away from dependence on oil but experience suggests such transitions take decades to complete.
In the meantime, the authors argue, many low-cost producers will try to resist the shift to a higher-volume, lower-price strategy while they try to make progress with the transition.
The problem with this argument is that it makes oil prices a function of social costs. In reality, it is the other way around — price drives social spending.
Dale and Fattouh argue that “it is likely that many low-cost producers will delay adopting a more competitive strategy until they have made significant progress in reforming their economies. This is likely to slow the speed at which the new competitive oil market emerges.”
“The shift to a more competitive oil market environment won’t just happen on its own accord, it requires a critical mass of low-cost producers both to recognize the need to adopt a more competitive strategy and, more importantly, to have reformed their economies sufficiently for them to be able to adopt such a strategy sustainably.”
If social costs in many low-cost producing countries remain high, according to Dale and Fattouh, that is likely to slow the pace at which a more competitive market takes hold, until they can reduce them.
Fattouh and Dale assume that Saudi Arabia and the other low-cost Middle East oil producers can successfully exercise market power, restricting production to keep prices high.
But they are probably overstating OPEC’s market power.
In the 1980s, OPEC’s market power was broken by the emergence of rival oil supplies from the North Sea as well as Russia, Alaska and China. In the 2010s, its market power was hit by the emergence of US shale, Canadian heavy oil and deepwater projects.
In practice, prices have been driven by the cost of developing and producing alternative supplies outside the major producing economies of the Middle East.
The cost of these alternative supplies is well above the $10 physical extraction cost of the major Middle East fields — but it may or may not be high enough to cover their social costs.
In future, the major oil producers will also have to reckon with increasing competition from other forms of energy.
Dale and Fattouh conclude that social costs and the pace of economic reform in the major oil-producing countries will have a decisive impact on oil prices over the next few decades.
In practice, the opposite is probably true. Oil prices and the degree of competition from other sources of supply, as well as electric vehicles, will have a decisive impact on the producers’ social spending and the rate of diversification.
• John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.
Peak oil demand and its implications for Gulf producers
Peak oil demand and its implications for Gulf producers
Annual Dubai forum dedicated to futurism explores ways to ‘empower generations’
- Dubai Future Foundation CEO Khalfan Juma Belhoul unpacks the 2024 edition agenda in an exclusive interview with Arab News
- “In order to have a view on the future, we need to convene and listen to everyone,” he says as Dubai Future Forum gets underway
DUBAI: As the third edition of the Dubai Future Forum kicks off, the UAE’s commercial capital is once again playing host to futurists, visionaries, and thought leaders from across the globe. This year’s event, being held at the city’s iconic Museum of the Future, is expected to draw over 2,500 experts, policymakers and innovators from around 100 countries.
Organized by the Dubai Future Foundation (DFF), the two-day event will feature 150 speakers across 70 sessions, making it the world’s largest gathering dedicated to futurism and foresight.
The agenda for the 2024 edition, entitled “Empowering Generations,” reflects Dubai’s vision to remain at the forefront of global futurism. The discussions will range from harnessing AI and technology for societal good to tackling the challenges of sustainability and human well-being.
Speaking exclusively to Arab News, Khalfan Juma Belhoul, CEO of the DFF, emphasized the forum’s role in positioning Dubai as a leader in future foresight.
“Each year the event differs from the one before. The Dubai Future Forum is an anchor which positions us as leaders in foresight,” he said. “We like to promote the DFF as the headquarters of the future in the world; and in order for us to have a view on the future, we need to convene and listen to everyone.”
Held under the patronage of Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, crown prince of Dubai and chairman of the DFF, the annual event aims to explore transformative shifts and identify practical solutions to ensure a better, sustainable future. Now in its third year, the forum continues to evolve.
Belhoul explained that the forum was born out of a vision of UAE Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum to institutionalize foresight as a key strategy. According to him, when Sheikh Mohammed initially decided that the country needed to institutionalize foresight — something that had not been done before — it was obvious that the first thing that was needed was to find a way to convene a class of people that understood the vision.
FASTFACTS
- Event Dates: Nov. 19-20, 2024.
- Participants: 2,500 attendees, 150 speakers, 70 sessions.
- Key Topics: AI, sustainability, health, longevity, digital economy.
- Special Guests: Dr. Makoto Suzuki, Amy Webb, Sara Sabry, Paul Saffo, Jordan Nguyen.
“Fast forward to this year, we are talking about the gathering of roughly 2,500 people, 150 speakers, and 70 sessions. The numbers are steadily increasing every year,” Belhoul said. “It makes us proud to host and listen to futurist experts, especially when they speak so fondly about the DFF. We cannot claim to own a view on the future without being inclusive, collaborative, and hearing everyone.”
Conversations at the 2024 edition of the Dubai Future Forum will center on five key themes: Foresight Insights, Transforming Humanity, Optimizing Health, Empowering Generations, and Futuring Nature. The topics align with global priorities, echoing the recent UN Summit of the Future, which focused on forging an international consensus for a better present and future.
Belhoul highlighted the significance of exploring critical topics such as artificial intelligence, sustainability and societal well-being. While themes like AI and Gen AI will be on the agenda, participants will also be actively discussing how they affect communities, nature and job sectors. “If you really focus on what matters to humans, then you realize all of the above are integral components of our conversations,” he said.
“Of course, we will also be diving deeply into foresight conversations which you can consider as main pillar alongside the other themes.
“They are integral parts of our conversations and they are integral parts of what matters to humans. We are trying to create a network of like-minded people who can talk about how foresight can be done.”
The event’s focus extends to health and longevity, exploring how technological advancements can improve human well-being. As Belhoul put it, “We have to strike the balance between leveraging technology — which we haven’t yet scratched the surface of, in terms of AI and computing — and ensuring the health and well-being of our people.”
On attendance will be star-studded lineup of global experts and futurists, including the technology forecaster Paul Saffo; Jordan Nguyen, an advocate for technology-driven human enhancement; Amy Webb, CEO of the Future Today Institute; and Sara Sabry, the first female Arab and African astronaut.
One of the most eagerly anticipated speakers is Dr. Makoto Suzuki, who will share his pioneering research on the secrets of longevity.
“There is a massive line up that I am looking forward to. Anad while I will not be able to attend all the sessions, I will be listening to them as I am running on my treadmill in the morning,” Belhoul said.
He also expressed excitement about the diversity of speakers, noting how their insights will contribute to the forum’s goal of fostering global collaboration. “While some topics are AI focused, we have people like Nguyen and Webb, who are amazing story tellers. And when you have that kind of style, you attract the audience to listen to you and engage more.”
Belhoul added: “We are trying to create a network of like-minded people who can discuss how foresight can be done. It’s amazing how like-minded we are in the foresight perspective. This validates the importance of working with different networks to create a better future.”
“And how we, as humanity, can overcome the biggest challenges we might face by collectively finding ways to solve big those issues — whether its regulations for AI, solutions for climate crises, or the economic conflicts around the world.”
The first day of the forum will include a series of keynote addresses and thematic panels, with sessions like “From Deep Space to Deep Ocean: A Future of Exploration and Discovery” and “Concepts of Time: How Do They Shape Our Future?” Innovative exchanges in intimate settings will cover everything from deep-sea robotics to the impact of science fiction on future imaginings.
Central to the event will be exploring how foresight can lead to practical solutions for pressing global challenges. Mohammad Abdullah Al-Gergawi, UAE minister of cabinet affairs and managing director of DFF, described the Dubai Future Forum as a crucial platform for fostering international cooperation.
“Rapid transformations in technology, society, and the environment make it essential to continuously revisit our government’s priorities for future readiness,” he said.
One of the new initiatives at this year’s forum is the “Dubai Future Solutions — Prototypes for Humanity” exhibition, showcasing 100 cutting-edge prototypes designed to address global challenges.
Belhoul underscored the importance of listening to diverse voices and collaborating to shape the future. “We need to find a way to work in harmony when it comes to the digital economy,” he said. “By listening to opinions from all over the world, you get a boost of knowledge as to where the future is headed.”
Reflecting on the forum’s impact, he said: “The DFF is a tool for us to come up with an action plan for the future. By being inclusive and collaborative, we aim to build a world that’s ready for whatever comes next.”
UNCCD COP16: Saudi Arabia announces Green Zone to combat land degradation
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia will host a special UN forum to combat desertification with the introduction of a dedicated Green Zone and thematic days for the first time in the event’s history.
As part of its presidency of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification COP16, the Kingdom has announced a dedicated area focused on raising global awareness about land degradation, while enabling key decision-makers from scientific, non-governmental, political, business, and at-risk communities to find and fund lasting solutions.
The Green Zone will host thematic days designed to rally action on critical issues, including agri-food systems and finance, during the conference set to take place from Dec. 2-13 at Boulevard Riyadh City.
This initiative aligns with the Saudi Green Initiative target to turn 30 percent of the Kingdom’s land into nature reserves, plant 10 billion trees, and restore 40 million hectares of degraded land.
“Land degradation, desertification and drought impact almost every corner of the planet, and every living being on it, from the species at risk of extinction to the lives and livelihoods impacted by severe drought,” said Osama Faqeeha, deputy minister for environment at the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture, and adviser to the UNCCD COP16 Presidency.
“Saudi Arabia will host the first-ever UNCCD COP16 Green Zone to mobilize the international community and maximize the opportunity during December’s conference of delivering lasting global change,” he added.
There will also be a Blue Zone, which along with its green counterpart will feature seven thematic days designed to foster action and dialogue among key stakeholders.
Land Day will focus on land restoration initiatives and nature-based solutions, while the Business for Land Forum will bring together international leaders to discuss the economic importance of sustainable land practices.
Finance Day will address ways to close the financing gap in land degradation, along with a special ministerial dialogue and innovations in Sustainable Land Management financing. Governance Day will focus on improving women’s land rights and address policy issues surrounding land tenure and resource governance.
Agri-Food Systems Day will spotlight food security, crop resilience, and sustainable farming. Resilience Day will explore water scarcity, drought resilience, and early warning systems for sand and dust storms.
People’s Day will feature a youth caucus to engage young people, as 1 billion people under 25 in regions dependent on land and natural resources for jobs and livelihoods face significant challenges.
Alfanar Projects, SEC sign $5.33bn deals to support Saudi energy modernization
RIYADH: Energy deals worth SR20 billion ($5.33 billion) have been signed between Alfanar Projects and Saudi Electricity Co. to advance the Kingdom’s power modernization and sustainability efforts.
The agreements, announced during the Energy Localization Forum hosted by the Ministry of Energy, include the construction of the Middle East’s largest High-Voltage Direct Current Converter Station, according to a press release.
This facility, developed in partnership with China Electric Power Equipment and Technology Co., will deliver 7 gigawatts of power between the Central, Western, and Southern regions.
The deals also include projects for battery storage systems, smart distribution centers, and renewable energy integration, aimed at improving grid reliability and supporting Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 goals of energy self-sufficiency and sustainability.
Saudi Arabia aims to get 50 percent of its power from renewable energy by 2030, with a total capacity of 130 GW. This includes 58.7 GW from solar and 40 GW from wind, making it the most ambitious renewable energy target in the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Amer Al-Ajmi, executive vice president of sales and marketing at Alfanar Projects, said: “The confidence placed in us by the Ministry of Energy, through its representative, Saudi Electricity Co., affirms our commitment to deliver and execute transformative projects of this scale.”
He added: “At Alfanar Projects, we combine our robust resources, technical expertise, and a highly skilled national workforce to create a sustainable energy infrastructure that supports the Kingdom’s self-sufficiency goals and strengthens its role as a leader in renewable energy.”
The signing ceremony was attended by Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Minister of State Hamad bin Mohammed Al-Sheikh, and Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar bin Ibrahim Alkhorayef.
Other key representatives included Khaled Al-Ghamdi, CEO of Saudi Electricity Co., and Sabah Al-Mutlaq, vice chairman of Alfanar Co. and managing director of Alfanar Projects, who represented both organizations.
Alfanar Projects is a Saudi-based company developing sustainable energy projects that support economic growth and environmental goals in the Kingdom and beyond.
Earlier this month, Saudi Electricity Co. reported a net profit of SR5.6 billion for the first nine months of 2024, up from SR 4.6 billion last year. The company’s power generation capacity grew by 1.4 percent, with its directly owned capacity rising to 56.9 GW.
Closing Bell: Saudi benchmark index edges up to close at 11,830
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose by 0.16 percent or 18.40 points to reach 11,830.38 points on Monday.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR5.4 billion ($1.46 billion), as 78 of the listed stocks advanced, while 151 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index increased by 1.22 points, or 0.08 percent, to close at 1,487.07.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also increased, gaining 119 points, or 0.40 percent, to close at 29,596.35 points. This comes as 44 of the listed stocks advanced while as many as 34 retreated.
The index’s top performer, the National Co. for Glass Industries, saw a 9.11 percent increase in its share price to close at SR53.90.
Other top performers included Arriyadh Development Co., which saw a 5.76 percent increase to reach SR27.55, while Almasane Alkobra Mining Co.’s share price rose by 4.41 percent to SR68.70.
The Power and Water Utility Co. for Jubail and Yanbu also recorded a positive trajectory, with share prices rising 3.26 percent to reach SR57. CATRION Catering Holding Co. also witnessed positive gains, with 3.20 percent reaching SR129.
East Pipes Integrated Co. for Industry was TASI’s worst performer, with the company’s share price dropping by 3.78 percent to SR137.40.
Arabian Pipes Co. followed with a 3.68 percent drop to SR109.80. Alkhorayef Water and Power Technologies Co. also saw a notable drop of 3.31 percent to settle at SR140.
Elm Co. and MBC Group Co. were among the top five poorest performers, with Elm Co.’s share declining by 3.24 percent to settle at SR1.127.60 and MBC Group’s falling by 3.18 percent to sit at SR44.15.
On Nomu, Shalfa Facilities Management Co. was the best performer, with its share price rising by 14.03 percent to reach SR95.90.
Sure Global Tech Co. and Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons Co. also delivered strong performances. Sure Global Tech Co. saw its share price rise by 13.24 percent, reaching SR83.80, while Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons Co. recorded a 12.20 percent increase, standing at SR43.70.
Osool and Bakheet Investment Co. also fared well with 9.81, and Banan Real Estate Co. increased 7.73 percent.
Alqemam for Computer Systems Co. shed the most in Nomu, with its share price dropping by 12 percent to reach SR88.
Natural Gas Distribution Co. experienced a 5.87 percent decline in share prices, closing at SR54.50, while Horizon Educational Co. dropped 5.66 percent to settle at SR75.
Raoom Trading Co. and Lana Medical Co. were also among the top decliners, with Raoom Trading Co. falling 5.26 and Lana Medical Co. declining 4.89 percent.
Pakistan Stock Exchange may gain at least 27% by end of 2025 — Bloomberg
- Benchmark KSE-100 Index forecast to increase to 127,000 points by Dec. 2025, a 34% rise, from 94,704 points it closed on Friday
- Key index advanced as much as 0.6% on Monday, taking gains to more than 50% this year, the second best performer globally
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s stocks are expected to advance by more than a quarter by the end of next year as the nation’s economy shows improvement under a loan program with the International Monetary Fund and the currency stabilizes, Bloomberg reported on Monday, quoting two brokerage houses.
The benchmark KSE-100 Index is forecast to increase to 127,000 points by December 2025, or a 34% rise, from the 94,704 points it closed last Friday, according to Topline Securities Ltd. in a report announced on Nov. 16. Arif Habib Ltd. targets the index to reach 120,000 points, a gain of 27%.
“The stage is set for a potential market re-rating with declining interest rates, a stable rupee, and improving macroeconomic indicators,” Karachi-based brokerage Arif Habib commented in a report.
Pakistan’s economy has stabilized with inflation easing from record levels that has allowed the central bank to cut the interest rate for four straight meetings to 15 percent, the lowest in two years.
The key index advanced as much as 0.6% on Monday, taking its gains to more than 50% this year, the second best performer globally, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The equity market will be offering a 37% return including 10% dividend yield by the end of 2025 because of economic stability and falling bond yields, Karachi-based Topline said in a separate report.
Pakistan is also increasingly attracting the attention of foreign investors, particularly in its debt and equity markets, said Arif Habib.
