LONDON: Saudi Arabia’s prospects depend more on government reforms becoming “irreversible” than the price of oil, said Moritz Kraemer, global chief rating officer for S&P in an interview with Arab News.
He said: “If oil went to $100 per barrel again there would be a risk of undermining the reform momentum — and helping those campaigning to maintain the previous status quo.
“We don’t think the oil price will determine the fate of the country. The policies that are chosen will determine future economic stability,” said Kraemer.
He added that S&P’s forecast for the average price of crude in 2018 was $60 a barrel, falling to $50 a barrel in 2019, underlining how important it was that KSA reduced its dependence on crude to secure prosperity.
Kraemer said today’s Saudi Arabia contrasts with to an earlier era when there “had been so many internal, opaque checks and balances that you really never had any policy momentum developing in any direction. There was a sort of stagnation in policy-making.”
Looking at recent reform initiatives in KSA, Kraemer noted that the objectives were very demanding, but would most likely be met in the timeframe laid out. However, what was really important was “the direction of travel,” namely bringing in more private capital, to develop the country, “whether that happens slower or faster is less important than the irreversibility of the process,” he said.
The Kingdom should maintain growth of spending, and one way of trying to achieve this was by getting the private sector more involved in service delivery, health and education and also infrastructure.
Asked whether investor appetite for Saudi debt was good, Kraemer said yes, and this was seen when the government issued bonds for the first time in 2016 — with the $17.5 billion offering oversubscribed four times.
But the domestic capital market still needs developing. The take-up of Saudi government bonds was largely, but not exclusively, by foreign investors. The local market was relatively undeveloped compared to countries such as Turkey and the UAE, he said.
To remedy matters, Kraemer said regulation needed to be “more helpful,” although the authorities were working on improvements.
The assignment of credit ratings to Saudi companies would help domestic corporates to raise debt both at home and abroad — but for this to happen KSA groups would have to disclose more details about their affairs, he said.
In the context of Vision 2030, Kraemer flagged up significant financing needed for infrastructure projects. “We foresee a lot of activity linked to PPPs (public private partnerships). Funding would be partly covered by the banks, but some would have to come from debt markets,” said Kraemer.
With interest rates rising, he was relaxed about the effect on KSA. During S&P studies, the Kingdom regularly showed up as least vulnerable to the threat of outflows of foreign capital in a rising interest rate environment.
Turkey was among the countries most at risk, he said, but Qatar also had issues.
He said: “If you look at what Qatar needs to borrow compared to how much foreign exchange reserves they have, and how much current account receipts they have, it looks quite weak. They need to pay and borrow more than KSA — not in absolute terms, but relative to their export receipts.”
On the other hand, Qatar had substantive external investments, and “a hugely liquid portfolio of foreign bonds and shares that they could run down if there was a squeeze, so they were well buffered.”
Saudi debt would not reach anywhere near something that “could be described as alarming,” according to S&P forecasts, he said.
According to the World Bank’s 2018 outlook on the Middle East and North Africa, growth in the region is expected to jump to 3 percent in 2018 from 1.8 percent in 2017.
Growth in Saudi Arabia was forecast to accelerate to 1.2 percent in 2018 from 0.3 percent in 2017, while in Egypt, growth is anticipated to pick up to 4.5 percent from 4.2 percent last year.
In a report at the end of 2017, S&P said its stable outlook on KSA was based on the expectation that the Saudi authorities would continue to take steps to consolidate public finances and maintain government liquid assets close to 100 percent of GDP over the next two years.
It added: “We think the risks emanating from recent shifts in Saudi Arabia’s political power structures and societal norms, alongside various regional stresses, are balanced by the possibility that these structural reforms could empower Saudi citizens and make Saudi Arabia more attractive to investors over the medium term.”
But S&P said its ratings could come under pressure if it observed a significant increase in domestic or regional political instability as a result of the increasing centralization of power.
Future of Saudi economy about policy, not prices says S&P chief
Future of Saudi economy about policy, not prices says S&P chief
Al-Qasabi calls for Saudi-UK partnership to future-proof skills, jobs
RIYADH: A Saudi-UK Center of Excellence should be established to help secure the future skill sets needed, according to the Kingdom’s minister of commerce.
During a panel discussion titled “Human Capital Reimagined – Launching the Saudi-UK Skills Initiative” on the second day of the Human Capability Initiative 2025 taking place in Riyadh, Majid Al-Qasabi explained that this initiative aligns with the UK’s reputation as a global center of excellence in education, home to top universities, leading research institutions, and world-class vocational schools.
Al-Qasabi speculated on future areas of collaboration: “We need to collaborate and cooperate and coordinate in three areas. Track A, we create a Saudi-UK Center of Excellence for future skills, where we can bring democrats like me, policymakers, private sector opinion leaders, educators, all the stakeholders to co-design future skills.”
He also shed light on additional areas where the two countries should collaborate, including vocational training and leveraging digital platforms.
“We know that the UK, they’re the center of excellence for vocational training, and we desperately need vocational training in Saudi Arabia. So, second track, we create the center of excellence or vocational academies, jointly UK-Saudi Vocational Academy, where your software, your brain power, your experience can be transferred to our boys and girls because this will also be used in the health sector and the newly developed sectors,” the minister said.
“Last, how can we leverage digital platforms to accelerate learning and continuous life learning because things are going too fast, so we create maybe a joined platforms to have continuous education even in the service sector. You know, the UK is the second largest exporter of services globally,” Al-Qasabi added.
He went on to note that the tourism, culture, sports, and creative industries are expected to create 1 million jobs by 2030. The creative economy alone already supports over 80,000 jobs, with strong growth anticipated in film and design, fashion, and digital arts.
“The digital economy is projected to grow from 4.4 percent of GDP in 2020 to over 19 percent by 2030. The health care sector is projected to reach SR250 billion ($66.6 billion) by 2030,” the minister said.
Al-Qasabi added: “The green economy expected over SR2 trillion worth of investments in the pipeline, like sustainable construction, renewable energy, circular economies, and so forth.”
He also emphasized that with 65 percent of the population under the age of 35, investing in lifelong learning is not a choice but a necessity.
Also speaking during the panel, the Kingdom’s Vice Minister of Sport, Bader Al-Kadi, noted that the National Sports Strategy was developed by drawing on insights from other markets, particularly the UK, which has been closely studied as a model for sports development.
“With that learning taken, we have worked on building capabilities in Saudis to ensure that we have the right talents. Not only as athletes, but as a physiotherapist, as psychiatrists, as sports managers, as coaches, and everything around building the ecosystem,” Al-Kadi said.
“We learn also from the UK sustainability in the sports sector. The UK sports sector is 90 percent funded by the private sector. That’s a great target, an ambitious to achieve. In Saudi Arabia today, 15 percent of the sports sector is funded by the private sector, so a big gap and a big ambition for us to work on toward achieving,” he added.
The minister also emphasized that human capability is one of the key enablers underpinning the National Sports Strategy and plays a central role in its development.
“The sports sector will contribute to 13 percent of those jobs that are being created by sports entertainment and tourism sectors,” Al-Kadi said.
“Obviously, sports (sector) is expected to also contribute to the economy. We aim to have sports reaching up to 3 percent of GDP by 2030. This is an ambitious target that we have for ourselves,” he added.
Also present in the same panel, UK’s Minister of Early Education Stephen Morgan underlined that the country wants to start by sharing their work with the Kingdom and, in turn, learn from the Ministry of Education’s initiatives to upskill and retain early-year staff.
“We could also share our experiences of introducing new modern teaching methods, and these include educational technology that tailors learning to individual children and produces data-led results to measure impact,” Morgan said.
He added: “And it’s through the sharing of our practice and resources and knowledge that early education can become a key building block in our partnership on skills training for older students and I have absolutely no doubt that the UK-Saudi Skills Education Partnership will be accessed with a success and we’ve already had notable achievements in our work together on education, such as increasing the number of UK independent schools in the Kingdom and we’re working really hard to deliver more important higher education partnerships for the future.”
Steve Field, UK special healthcare representative to Saudi Arabia, said: “You have a large number of nurses, majority of which are currently working very effectively in the hospital setup. You’ve got some brilliant hospitals, but to deliver the vision you will need to focus on prevention, on primary care and on mental health in addition to your hospital world and of course, if you can do that, you can move care out of hospitals, reduce the cost of healthcare, and also prevent illnesses before you have to treat them.”
He added: “So we’re here to help you. Our universities are really keen to partner with you to develop more nursing schools to support you in your faculty development, in your leadership, and we want to be on this journey with you and finally just to reassure and assure you that the UK government are right behind this and are with you right till the end and beyond.”
Mazen Fakeeh, president of Fakeeh Care Group, who also participated in the session, disclosed that the nursing shortage is a global issue, not just specific to Saudi Arabia.
“Nurses constitute 40 percent of the workforce required to provide care across the globe. Saudi Arabia, we have about. 6.2 nurses per 1,000 population. In Saudi Arabia, the current intake in nursing school is about 5,000 a year. For us to meet the gap, the existing gap and the future gap between 2030 to 2040, we need to increase that intake from the current 5,000 by 150 percent,” Fakeeh said.
He added: “So, there is a huge demand on nursing, nursing training and education. For that, the government had the initiative to reduce the number of years without compromising the quality of training from the current four years plus one year of internship to three years, which is the expedited nursing curriculum in the UK.”
London Business School to open Riyadh office amid rising demand for executive education
RIYADH: London Business School is set to open an office in Riyadh in the coming months, a move its dean says reflects the institution’s long-term commitment to supporting Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the country’s accelerating demand for executive education.
The new location will deliver tailored executive education programs for both public and private sector organizations, building on London Business School’s expanding presence in the Kingdom.
“Opening a third location is a big move for us, and we are making this investment because we strongly believe in the future of Vision 2030,” said Sergei Guriev, dean of London Business School, in an interview with Arab News on the sidelines of the Human Capability Initiative in Riyadh.
“We want to be part of this transformation, and we want to help enhance human capability of Saudi public and private sector organizations through providing leadership and business skills,” he added.
The expansion will mark the school’s third global location and its second in the Middle East after Dubai. It will be managed by Florin Vasvari, appointed executive dean of executive education, Middle East, and Helen Kerkentzes, associate dean of executive education, who will serve as general manager.
“We’ve grown our relationships with Saudi public and private sector organizations a lot. We have many Saudi students coming to our campuses in London and Dubai, but we also teach programs for Saudi corporations as well as, public sector organizations in London and in Riyadh,” Guriev said.
He explained the school runs both open-enrollment and custom-designed programs to meet the needs of Saudi companies.
“Open executive education programs are when students can apply from all sectors of Saudi economies,” he said. “But we also design custom customer-centric programs for Saudi corporations.”
In recent years, the number of Saudi executives enrolling in open-enrollment Executive Education programs has surged by over 250 percent.
Guriev noted that nearly one-third of LBS’s global executive education clients are either Saudi individuals or companies.
“For us, Saudi Arabia is the biggest country for our executive education,” he said.
The Kingdom has also become the top source of students at the school’s Dubai campus.
“Saudi nationals are the biggest national group and account in the last intake, they account for about 40 percent of the student body in Dubai, in our executive MBA program in Dubai,” Guriev noted.
He said the decision to open an office in Riyadh was part of a broader strategic move backed by the school’s leadership.
“When I came on board as a dean, I talked to the board, the governing body of the London Business School. In November, we made the decision to proceed with opening an office,” he said. “In April, we stand on stage with three ministers, holding our commercial registration and investment license, allowing us to operate in Saudi Arabia.”
On gender inclusion, Guriev praised the Kingdom’s progress and reaffirmed LBS’s commitment to advancing female leadership.
“We drastically increase the participation of women in our programs in Saudi Arabia and in London. For us it’s very important and we praise the focus of the government on increasing of economic activity of women,” he said.
“This is one of the great successes of recent years of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. And we want to be part of the success, providing more programs for women, not only in London but here on the ground in Riyadh, making it easier for female business leaders to take programs from London Business School,” Guriev added.
Nigeria embraces AI in education to equip youth for global economy
RIYADH: Nigeria is integrating artificial intelligence into its education system as part of a broader strategy to train its vast youth population for the global tech economy, according to Minister of State for Education Maruf Tunji Alausa.
Speaking to Arab News on the sidelines of the Human Capability Initiative in Riyadh, Alausa said African nations must embrace AI in education while ensuring that students retain critical social skills.
“The basic outcome was that we don’t have a choice now, AI has come to stay. We need to now use AI as part of our learning,” Alausa said. “Countries need to infuse AI to help augment and improve education delivery.”
However, he cautioned against over-reliance on technology, warning that it must not erode children’s social skills. “We have to be sure that it doesn’t leave deficiencies in the skill set, in the social skills of our children,” he added.
With over 60 percent of Africa’s 1.2 billion people under 30 — and Nigeria’s 220 million population being 70 percent youth — Alausa argued that the continent is uniquely positioned to supply skilled labor to aging economies like Europe, Japan, and the US.
“Today, Nigeria has 65 million people between 15 and 29, with 5 million entering the workforce yearly,” he said. “We need to train this youthful population in tech skills — software development, cybersecurity, AI, cloud computing — so they can service companies worldwide while staying in Nigeria.”
Nigeria has launched a digital training academy to upskill university graduates in high-demand tech fields, enabling them to earn online certifications and work remotely for international firms. Alausa urged other African nations to adopt similar models.
During his visit to Saudi Arabia, Alausa toured several academic institutions alongside Education Minister Yousef Al-Benyan and praised the Kingdom’s dual-track approach to higher education.
“Saudi Arabia has gotten it right,” he said.
He also announced forthcoming collaborations between Nigeria and Saudi Arabia in education and skills development.
“As we learn from Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia can also learn from us,” Alausa added.
Held under the patronage of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Human Capability Initiative convened more than 12,000 experts from over 100 countries to address the intersection of education, workforce transformation, and emerging technologies.
This year’s theme, “Beyond Readiness,” focused on AI, inclusive development, and global equity in skills training.
With Nigeria positioning itself as a hub for global tech talent, Alausa’s vision aligns with HCI’s goal of fostering cross-border partnerships to future-proof economies.
Saudi Arabia launches National Skills Platform to future-proof workforce
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has launched a National Skills Platform to equip its workforce with future-ready capabilities and align national talent with global trends, according to a top official.
The Minister of Human Resources and Social Development Ahmed Al-Rajhi made the announcement during his keynote speech at the Human Capabilities Initiative, where he described human capital as “the defining variable of global prosperity.”
He highlighted the Kingdom’s commitment to using advanced technology, specifically artificial intelligence, to modernize and improve its training and workforce development systems.
“We are proud to take another step forward and announce a new initiative, the National Skills Platform, designed ... to empower our workforce and strengthen our national talent base with essential skills for the future,” Al-Rajhi said.
He added: “The platform represents a milestone in our journey that offers a unique and simple, agile journey, ensuring that every employee is equipped to meet the changing requirements of the labor market.”
By leveraging AI, the government aims to create smarter, more efficient training pathways tailored to individuals’ needs and aligned with the demands of local and global labor markets.
“This is part of our responsibility in providing accessible, high-quality training opportunities for all to drive personal growth and national development,” said Al-Rajhi.
The initiative is part of a broader strategy to address global labor shifts driven by AI and automation.
“By 2030, over 92 million jobs will become obsolete as automation and artificial intelligence change the way industries and people operate,” Al-Rajhi stated.
He added: “At the same time, entirely new industries and roles are emerging at an expected rate. The global skills gap is widening, with nearly 40 percent of skills expected to change and 63 percent of their employers already identifying their biggest challenge in finding qualified talent.”
He pointed to specific challenges in the technology sector, particularly in global cybersecurity, which alone faces a talent gap of 3.4 million workers. AI-related roles also remain largely unfilled, with a 50 percent hiring gap.
In response, the Kingdom has adopted a demand-driven workforce strategy.
“We have set up 13 sector skill councils consisting of over 240 million members from public and private sectors. These councils are responsible for identifying skills and job requirements and how to address them,” Al-Rajhi said.
In partnership with the Human Capability Development Program, Saudi Arabia launched the Skills Accelerator Initiative in March 2023 to train more than 300,000 individuals “with expertise in high-growth sectors such as energy, healthcare, finance, and retail.”
A parallel track aimed at women’s employment exceeded its initial target by 22 percent, with a reported 92 percent retention rate among trainees.
Reflecting on the initiative, Al-Rajhi said: “We do this by analyzing what the market needs in collaboration with businesses, educational institutions and experts, then we give access to this training to every individual possible, regardless of their location, by blending virtual learning with hands-on training.”
He continued: “Technical expertise alone is not enough. Leadership, strategic thinking, and adaptability are equally important, and skilling and reskilling for the workforce is a national priority that all stakeholders should engage in.”
The minister also highlighted the Waad National Training Campaign, describing it as an investment in “the promise of human potential.”
Launched in March 2023, Waad delivered over 1 million training opportunities in its first phase. A second phase was introduced in November, aiming to reach 3 million opportunities with support from 16 public and private sector partners.
The initiatives are supported by a growing network of more than 70 training institutions and over 45,000 businesses.
Expanding beyond national borders, Al-Rajhi announced the government has extended its Talent Enrichment Program globally through the Professional Accreditation Program that is enabling professionals in 160 countries to gain globally recognized credentials.
He added: “Our aim is to enhance global workforce mobility and competitiveness with over 1,300 accredited professionals. This initiative recognizes globalization, and it is a demand for global talent development and integration.”
In another announcement during the forum, Saudi Arabia revealed that the National Occupational Safety and Health Institute will be launched during the 7th International Conference on Occupational Safety and Health.
The institute, a partnership between the Technical and Vocational Training Corp. and the National Council for Occupational Safety and Health, aims to train over 35,000 individuals in occupational safety, health, and risk management within five years.
In a panel session, Khalid Al-Sabti, advisor of the General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers and chairman of the Education and Training Evaluation Commission, emphasized the impact of education quality on economic growth.
“At ETEC, our vision is to become a globally leading and high-impact Saudi model for equality and contribute directly to the national development and economic prosperity,” Al-Sabti said.
He continued: “We partnered with international global organizations to study the impact of education quality to economic growth, and currently, we are finalizing a study with the World Bank, and the findings are very encouraging and promising.”
He stated that if Saudi Arabia improves the quality of its education system to match or exceed global standards, it could see significant improvements in its economic growth, particularly in its annual gross domestic product.
In the past, the emphasis was largely on the number of years students spent in school, based on the assumption that more schooling would lead to stronger economies.
“Traditionally, education, measured by … the years of schooling has been seen as a major driver for economic growth. However, recently, studies show that there is a shift from the education quantity to education quality,” Al-Rajhi said.
He added: “Cognitive skills measured by international exams such as PISA (Program for International Student Assessment) has shown that it’s more important and critical for driving economic growth compared to simply years spent in the school.”
OPEC lowers 2025 global oil demand forecast, citing US tariffs
RIYADH: OPEC has trimmed its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast, pointing to first quarter data and recently announced US trade tariffs as key factors behind the revision.
In its latest monthly report, the oil producers’ group now expects demand to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day next year—150,000 bpd lower than its previous estimate.
The group also downgraded global economic growth projections for both 2025 and 2026, citing rising uncertainty from evolving trade dynamics.
“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year; however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty,” the report stated.
Despite the downward revision, OPEC’s outlook remains among the most optimistic in the industry, with the group projecting continued long-term growth in oil use.
For 2026, it expects demand to increase by 1.28 million bpd, down from 1.43 million bpd previously. Total demand is now forecast at 105.05 million bpd in 2025 and 106.33 million bpd in 2026.
OPEC also reduced its forecast for non-OPEC+ liquids production, expecting growth of 910,000 bpd in 2025 and 900,000 bpd in 2026—down by 100,000 bpd for both years.
The US was the primary contributor to the revised figures, with projected output now at 400,000 bpd in 2025 and 380,000 bpd in 2026, compared to earlier estimates of 450,000 and 460,000 bpd.
In terms of current production, OPEC+ output declined in March by 37,000 bpd to 41.02 million bpd, mainly due to cuts by Nigeria and Iraq.
However, Kazakhstan increased production by the same amount, once again breaching its OPEC+ quota. Its March output reached 1.852 million bpd, exceeding its agreed limit of 1.468 million bpd for the first quarter.
OPEC+ is expected to increase production in April and May as part of a phased rollback of previous output cuts designed to stabilize the market.
