TOKYO: Japan’s economy posted its longest continuous expansion since the 1980s boom as fourth-quarter growth was boosted by consumer spending, moving Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s revival plan a step closer to vanquishing decades of stagnation.
The long run of growth is an encouraging sign for the Bank of Japan, hinting that the economy may at last be building up momentum to lift consumer prices toward its 2 percent inflation target.
The economy expanded at a 0.5 percent annualized rate in October-December, less than the median estimate for annualized growth of 0.9 percent, Cabinet Office data showed on Wednesday. That followed a revised 2.2 percent annualized increase in July-September.
Japan’s economy grew a real 1.6 percent in calendar 2017, the fastest increase since a 2 percent expansion in 2013.
An extended run of growth could lead to some speculation that the Bank of Japan can afford to scale back quantitative easing, but economists say it is unlikely as long as the yen is rising and Japan’s consumer prices remain subdued.
Financial markets are already on edge from worries that central banks in the US and Europe will raise interest rates faster than expected to stay ahead of inflation, but the BOJ is expected to lag well behind those peers.
“Economic fundamentals look good and growth this year is likely to be above the economy’s potential,” said Hiroaki Muto, economist at Tokai Tokyo Research Center.
“However, I don’t see any talk of an exit for the BOJ when the yen is rising like this. When financial markets are volatile this hurts Japan’s animal spirits,” he said, referring to investor and consumer confidence.
The dollar slid to a 15-month low against the yen on Wednesday, as investors remained on edge ahead of US inflation numbers later in the day, underscoring fragile sentiment following a recent shakeout in global equity markets.
A rising yen, which tends to push down Japan’s import prices and depress exporters’ earnings, took the gloss off an otherwise respectable report on the world’s third-largest economy.
The GDP data comes after news that Abe’s government has decided to nominate Haruhiko Kuroda for a rare second term as Bank of Japan governor, a sign his ultra-loose monetary policy will remain in place. Investors, however, still have questions about who the deputy governors will be and what policies they are likely to favor.
Japan’s economy has now posted the longest continuous expansion since a 12-quarter stretch of growth between April-June 1986 and January-March 1989 around the height of Japan’s notorious economic bubble.
“The headline figures are somewhat weaker than expected, but that’s not something to worry too much about,” said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
“Capital expenditure and consumption are picking up. Exports are also strong. Other recent data are also strong. It’s safe to say the economy is in pretty good shape.”
Compared with the previous quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.1 percent, less than the median estimate of 0.2 percent growth and following a 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion in July-September, Cabinet Office data showed on Wednesday.
A Cabinet Office official said increased spending on mobile phones, cars, and dining out drove gains in private consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP.
To be sure, some economists are cautious about domestic demand because they believe any further declines in global stocks could hurt sentiment and returns on investors’ portfolios.
Real wages fell 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, the first decline in three quarters, which is another risk to domestic demand, although the tightest labor market in about 40 years may give unions more bargaining power in impending wage talks.
“I’m a little worried about sluggish wage growth,” said Daiju Aoki, regional chief investment officer at UBS Securities.
“I’m also worried about a negative wealth effect from a falling stock market.”
Capital expenditure rose 0.7 percent in October-December from the previous quarter, less than the median estimate for a 1.1 percent increase but up for the fifth straight quarter and a sign of sustainable gains in business investment.
Overseas demand subtracted fractionally from GDP in October-December. Exports rose 2.4 percent, but this gain was offset by a 2.9 percent jump in imports thanks to robust domestic demand.
Since taking office in late 2012, Abe has enacted reforms to draw more women and elderly people into the workforce, raise wages for part-time workers, liberalize the labor market, and encourage business investment.
“Domestic demand is strong enough that it can stand on its own two feet, so you can say Abenomics has matured,” said Hiroshi Miyazaki, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.
“Financial market moves pose risks, but I still expect consumption and business investment to drive future growth.”
Japan economy grows for longest period since 1980s bubble boom days
Japan economy grows for longest period since 1980s bubble boom days
Saudi Arabia closes $2.5 billion credit facility for budget financing
RIYADH: The National Debt Management Center has announced the successful arrangement of a Shariah-compliant revolving credit facility valued at SR9.4 billion ($2.5 billion).
This three-year facility is intended to support the Kingdom’s general budgetary requirements and was secured with the participation of three regional and international financial institutions.
This credit arrangement is in line with Saudi Arabia’s medium-term public debt strategy. It aims to diversify funding sources to meet financing needs at competitive terms, while adhering to robust risk management frameworks and the approved annual borrowing plan.
In November, Saudi Arabia approved its state budget for the fiscal year 2025, with projected revenues of SR1.18 trillion and expenditures totaling SR1.28 trillion, resulting in a deficit of SR101 billion.
The Finance Ministry forecasts a robust 4.6 percent growth in the Kingdom's real gross domestic product for 2025, a significant increase from the 0.8 percent growth expected in 2024. This growth is anticipated to be driven by a rise in activities within the non-oil sector, according to the ministry’s statement.
Saudi Arabia’s total debt is projected to reach SR1.3 trillion in 2025, or 29.9 percent of GDP, which is considered a sustainable level to meet the country’s financing needs.
Revised projections for the 2024 budget indicate a deficit of SR115 billion, with total debt expected to rise to SR1.2 trillion, or 29.3 percent of GDP.
The 2025 budget places a strong emphasis on maintaining essential services for citizens and residents while increasing investment in key projects and sectors. The government's focus remains on preserving fiscal stability, ensuring long-term sustainability, and managing reserves effectively. By maintaining manageable debt levels, Saudi Arabia aims to safeguard its resilience against unforeseen economic challenges.
Closing Bell: Saudi Arabia’s TASI closes in green at 12,103
- MSCI Tadawul Index also increased by 2.55 points, or 0.17%, to close at 1,517.16
- Parallel market Nomu gained 11.83 points, or 0.04%, to close at 31,005.69 points
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index concluded Thursday’s trading session at 12,102.55 points, marking an increase of 25.24 points, or 0.21 percent.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR5.55 billion ($1.47 billion), as 99 of the listed stocks advanced, while 131 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index also increased by 2.55 points, or 0.17 percent, to close at 1,517.16.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu reported increases, gaining 11.83 points, or 0.04 percent, to close at 31,005.69 points. This comes as 39 of the listed stocks advanced while as many as 43 retreated.
The index’s top performer, Tihama Advertising and Public Relations Co., saw a 9.91 percent increase in its share price to close at SR16.86.
Other top performers included Zamil Industrial Investment Co., which saw an 8.01 percent increase to reach SR35.05, while Al Yamamah Steel Industries Co.’s share price rose by 5.42 percent to SR36.
AYYAN Investment Co. also recorded a positive trajectory, with share prices rising 4.99 percent to reach SR16. Fawaz Abdulaziz Alhokair Co. witnessed positive gains, with 4.49 percent reaching SR14.44.
Arabian Cement Co. was TASI’s weakest performer, with its share price falling 5.81 percent to SR14.88.
Riyadh Cement Co. followed with a 5.45 percent drop to SR30.35. Yamama Cement Co. also saw a notable decline of 5.26 percent to settle at SR33.35.
Umm Al-Qura Cement Co. dropped 3.55 percent to SR17.94, while Methanol Chemicals Co. declined 3.03 percent to SR17.94, ranking among the top five decliners.
In the parallel market Nomu, View United Real Estate Development Co. was the top gainer, with its share price surging by 22.64 percent to SR9.10.
Other top gainers in the parallel market included Mulkia Investment Co., up 8.25 percent to SR40, and Enma AlRawabi Co., rising 6.67 percent to SR23.68.
Naas Petrol Factory Co. and Meyar Co. were the other top gainers on the parallel market.
Al-Modawat Specialized Medical Co. saw the largest decline on Nomu, with its share price slipping 8.05 percent to SR16.
Naseej for Technology Co. fell 7.14 percent to SR65, while Saudi Azm for Communication and Information Technology Co. dropped 6.18 percent to SR28.10, ranking among the notable decliners on Nomu.
On the announcement front, Al-Jouf Agricultural Development Co. said it has entered into a SR200 million Shariah-compliant bank facilities agreement with Banque Saudi Fransi to finance the company’s expansion plans and operational activities.
Its share price closed at SR64.50, reflecting a 1.2 percent gain.
Saudi Basic Industries Corp., or SABIC, announced that its Saudi affiliates have received official notification of increased feedstock prices, which is expected to affect the company’s production costs.
SABIC’s shares closed at SR67.30, marking a decline of 0.59 percent.
Sahara International Petrochemical Co., also known as Sipchem, received a notice from Saudi Aramco amending certain feedstock prices, effective Jan. 1. The financial impact is expected to result in a 2 percent increase in the total cost of sales, starting in the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year.
Sipchem’s shares ended the day at SR24.66, down 2.43 percent.
National Agricultural Development Co., or NADEC, received a notification regarding an adjustment in fuel prices for its operational activities. The financial impact is estimated to result in a 1.5 percent increase in operating costs, to be reflected starting in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025.
This change is expected to moderately raise production costs. NADEC’s shares closed at SR24.52, marking a 1.55 percent increase.
Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of National Guard achieves 100% localization of maintenance contracts
- The milestone was celebrated at a signing ceremony for new localization contracts
- Key accomplishments celebrated at the event included the development of a strategic implementation plan for sustainability localization
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of National Guard has increased local spending on maintenance, repairs, and operations for its ground systems from 1.6 percent to 100 percent over the past four years.
The milestone was celebrated at a signing ceremony for new localization contracts under the patronage of the Minister of National Guard, Prince Abdullah bin Bandar, with the participation of the General Authority for Military Industries.
The initiative is part of a broader effort to achieve sustainable development within the Kingdom’s military industries, enhance local capabilities, and support Vision 2030 goals.
The ministry has signed a series of contracts with local companies to improve the sustainability and efficiency of military systems. These agreements aim to strengthen military readiness, contribute to economic growth, and create job opportunities within Saudi Arabia.
These pacts include a sustainability contract for integrated weapons systems and heavy weaponry with SAMI Defense Systems Co., an electronic systems sustainment agreement with SAMI Advanced Electronics Co., and a vehicle sustainability deal with Alkhorayef Industries Co.
In conjunction with these contracts, GAMI announced signing two industrial participation deals to enhance local content and build national industrial capabilities.
The first agreement, signed with SAMI Defense Systems Co., focuses on the sustainability of integrated weapons and heavy weaponry, aiming to achieve over 60 percent industrial participation and create new employment opportunities for Saudi professionals.
The second contract, signed with Alkhorayef Industries Co., pertains to the sustainability of military vehicles and aims to encourage investment in qualified industrial activities to strengthen the defense sector.
The ministry highlighted the economic benefits of the localization program, including creating over 800 direct jobs and empowering national companies to take a central role in the Kingdom’s defense ecosystem.
Key accomplishments celebrated at the event included the development of a strategic implementation plan for sustainability localization, the establishment of innovation laboratories for spare parts manufacturing, and progress in achieving over 60 percent industrial participation in contracts.
These initiatives also contribute to enhancing local capabilities and fostering innovation within the Kingdom’s defense sector.
The event was attended by several high-ranking officials, including Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef, GAMI Governor Ahmed Al-Ohali, Governor of the General Authority for Defense Development Faleh Al-Suleiman, and President of the General Authority for Civil Aviation Abdulaziz Al-Duailej.
Senior representatives from the companies awarded the contracts. Military and civilian officials from the Ministry of National Guard were also present.
SRC and Hassana launch mortgage-backed securities to boost Saudi real estate investment
- Deal seeks to diversify Kingdom’s financial markets by introducing an innovative asset class
- Saudi banks’ mortgage lending hit a near three-year high of $2.7 billion in November
RIYADH: The region’s first-of-its-kind residential mortgage-backed securities will be available in Saudi Arabia as the Kingdom seeks to enhance liquidity and expand investment opportunities in the real estate finance sector.
A memorandum of understanding, signed between the Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co., a subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund, and Hassana Investment Co., seeks to diversify Saudi Arabia’s financial markets by introducing an innovative asset class.
The issuance of mortgage-backed securities is anticipated to attract a wide base of local and global investors to the secondary mortgage market, creating new opportunities for investment in the sector.
Majeed Al-Abduljabbar, CEO of SRC, said: “Our partnership with Hassana marks a significant milestone in supporting the evolution of the housing finance landscape and fostering the development of Saudi Arabia’s capital markets.”
He added: “Together, we aim to introduce innovative financial solutions that deliver value to both investors and citizens while aligning with Vision 2030’s objectives.”
The deal, signed in the presence of Majid Al-Hogail, minister of municipalities and housing, and Mohammed Al-Jadaan, minister of finance, aligns with the Housing Program and Financial Sector Development Program under Vision 2030.
“This collaboration establishes a new standard for partnerships, enabling the development of scalable financial solutions that contribute to the Kingdom’s economic development goals. It aligns with Hassana’s strategy of diversifying its investment portfolios through long-term partnerships with entities like SRC,” said Saad Al-Fadhli, CEO of Hassana.
Hassana’s participation as a key institutional investor underscores the potential to create sustainable economic investment opportunities.
This comes as the Kingdom’s real estate market continues to show strong demand, with annual growth in residential sales transaction volumes across major metropolitan areas.
Saudi banks’ mortgage lending hit a near three-year high of SR10.06 billion ($2.7 billion) in November, marking a 51.23 percent year-on-year increase and the highest monthly amount in over two years, according to data from the Kingdom’s central bank.
This surge reflects strong activity in the housing market, with houses accounting for 65 percent of the loans, followed by apartments at 31 percent and land purchases at 4 percent.
As part of its Vision 2030 agenda, the Kingdom is fast-tracking residential construction, particularly in Riyadh, to accommodate its growing population and attract international talent.
Qatar’s foreign merchandise trade balance surplus slips 5%
- Total exports in the third quarter of 2024 — including domestic goods and re-exports — were valued at 87.8 billion riyals
- Value of imports during the same period amounted to 30.1 billion riyals
RIYADH: Qatar recorded a foreign merchandise trade balance surplus of 57.7 billion Qatari riyals ($15.8 billion) in the third quarter of 2024, down 5 percent year on year, new data revealed.
Merchandise trade balance surplus is the difference between total exports and imports.
According to figures released by the Gulf nation’s Planning and Statistics Authority, the country’s total exports in the third quarter of 2024 — including domestic goods and re-exports — were valued at 87.8 billion riyals. This represents a 2.2 percent decline compared to the same period in 2023.
The value of Qatar’s imports during the same period amounted to 30.1 billion riyals, up 4.1 percent compared to the same quarter in 2023.
The figures fall in with the nation’s trajectory to restore government revenues to pre-2014 oil price shock levels and double its economy by 2031, according to an analysis by Standard Chartered in August.
The data also reflects the steady growth of Qatar’s non-oil economy, contributing to two-thirds of the country’s gross domestic product.
Exports breakdown
The figures further disclosed that the drop in exports is mainly attributed to lower exports of mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials by 5 billion riyals, or 6.5 percent, and miscellaneous manufactured articles by 100 million riyals, or 22 percent.
Increases were mainly recorded in chemicals and related products by 1.5 billion riyals, or 24.5 percent, machinery and transport equipment by 1.2 billion riyals, or 53.3 percent, and manufactured goods classified chiefly by material by 400 billion riyals, or 17.1 percent.
Exports of crude materials, inedible, except fuels, also witnessed a rise of 100 million, or 24.8 percent.
Imports breakdown
The rise in import values is mainly linked to increases in machinery and transport equipment by 800 million riyals, or 6.7 percent, chemicals and related products by 400 million riyals, or 17.2 percent, and mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials by 320 million riyals, or 58.2 percent.
Imports of food and live animals also jumped by 300 million riyals or 9.8 percent.
Meanwhile, decreases were recorded mainly in miscellaneous manufactured articles by 400 million, or 6.7 percent as well as manufactured goods classified chiefly by material by 300 million, or 7.7 percent.
Principal destinations
The PSA data showed that Asia was the principal destination of exports for the country, representing 75.9 percent, as well as the primary origin of Qatar’s imports, accounting for 39.7 percent.
The Gulf Cooperation Council followed, accounting for 11.6 percent of exports and 11.3 percent of imports, respectively.
The EU came next, with 7.7 percent of exports and 26 percent of imports.
