LONDON: It’s the burning question in the oil industry: when will Saudi Arabia pull the trigger on the Aramco stock market listing?
Many industry experts are focusing on the current level of oil prices. However another key consideration for Saudi officials in floating up to 5 percent of the state oil producer is where they see prices in one to two years’ time, two sources close to the IPO said.
The Riyadh government is carefully analyzing the future price curve structure in oil markets because it regards prices further out as an important element in achieving a high valuation in what could be the biggest initial public offering in history, the sources told Reuters.
Ideally, so-called long-dated prices for one and two years ahead need to move at least $10 higher — to around $70 per barrel — for the government to be happy to launch the listing, said the sources, who declined to be named as the information is confidential.
“When will the ideal moment come?” said one of the sources. “Maybe you should also look at the forward curve for oil ... as the forward curve will be key for investors valuing Aramco.”
The Saudi energy ministry and Saudi Aramco did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Many considerations are likely to influence the IPO timing, and the final decision may rest with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. But if long-dated prices at around $70 are an important factor, this could indicate a listing may be some way away.
Brent oil futures for March 2019 are valued now at $60.60, about a $4 discount to the $64.50 current — spot — price, and for two years away at $57.70.
Saudi officials have given few clues about the IPO, with energy minister Khalid Al-Falih and finance minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan saying only that the government will proceed when “the time is right.”
Spot and long-dated prices often do not move together. Immediate prices are more influenced by developments such as politically driven supply outages or natural disasters, while prices further down the curve are more affected by broader expectations of supply and demand, factoring in issues such as OPEC output policy and the rise of electric vehicles.
Spot prices rose to a three-year high above $70 in January but have since slid nearly 15 percent together with a broader decline in the stock markets due to fears about global inflation as well as renewed concerns about rising US oil production.
The concern about long-dated prices could also cast OPEC de facto leader Saudi Arabia’s oil-supply policies in a new light.
The kingdom has led a global oil output cut deal to support prices, a move which Reuters has previously reported was partly driven by a desire to maximize Aramco’s valuation for the IPO.
Falih has repeatedly said he sees OPEC cuts lasting until the end of 2018 and even then that the exit would be very gradual — comments that helped support not only near-term but also longer-dated prices.
The Saudi government says Aramco is worth $2 trillion and aims to list on one or more foreign stock exchanges in addition to Riyadh.
Saudi sources have said the listing on a local bourse could happen before the international listing. It is not clear if the forward oil price indicator will be a key consideration for the timing of a local listing.
The IPO is a central part of the crown prince’s reform drive aimed at restructuring the kingdom’s economy and reducing its dependence on oil revenue
While Saudi officials think $60 per barrel is a reasonable price for oil in the long term, the rally at the start of 2018 has provided an incentive to bump up the Aramco valuation, according to a third source close to the IPO.
“$60 is a sweet spot. But now they are making hay while the sun shines,” the source said.
He added however that, inside Aramco, concerns were also rising that a prolonged rally could again spur US shale production too much and lead to a loss of Saudi market share.
“A rally to the $70s carries the seeds of its own destruction,” the source said.
For timing of Aramco IPO, watch forward oil price curve
For timing of Aramco IPO, watch forward oil price curve
Closing Bell: Saudi indices end day in the red
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s stock market closed lower on Monday, with the Tadawul All Share Index falling 77.94 points, or 0.67 percent, to end the session at 11,548.66.
Total trading turnover stood at SR3.5 billion ($953.3 million), as 45 stocks advanced while 195 declined.
The Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, also closed in the red, shedding 340.41 points, or 1.17 percent, to finish at 28,637.78.
Of the listed stocks, 29 rose while 44 declined. The MSCI Tadawul Index dipped by 8.02 points, or 0.54 percent, closing at 1,466.51.
Alistithmar Capital REIT was the session’s top performer on the main index, jumping 9.92 percent to close at SR7.98.
Saudi Printing and Packaging Co. followed closely, gaining 9.86 percent to reach SR12.70. Nice One Beauty Digital Marketing Co. also saw notable gains, rising 4.78 percent to SR38.35, while Zamil Industrial Investment Co. climbed 3.92 percent to SR38.40.
On the other end of the spectrum, Dar Alarkan Real Estate Development Co. posted the steepest decline, falling 5.51 percent to SR22.30. Eastern Province Cement Co. dropped 4.48 percent to SR34.10, and Riyadh Cables Group Co. slid 4.26 percent to SR126.
National Gypsum Co. announced a 22.03 percent year-on-year increase in revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, reporting SR63.32 million compared to SR51.89 million the previous year. Despite the rise in sales, the company posted a net loss of SR14.72 million, reversing a profit of SR5.13 million a year earlier.
The loss was attributed to higher sales costs and a decline in other income, including a SR10.7 million fine paid to the General Authority for Competition and the absence of land compensation income that had been recorded the prior year. Shares of National Gypsum Co. dropped 1.59 percent to settle at SR19.80.
Banque Saudi Fransi reported a 16.38 percent increase in net profit for the first quarter ending March 31, 2025, reaching SR1.34 billion compared to SR1.15 billion in the same quarter of the previous year.
The bank’s total operating income rose 13.17 percent year on year to SR2.64 billion, driven by increases in special commission income and trading income.
Net income growth was supported by an 8.1 percent rise in net special commission income, while operating expenses grew by 12.16 percent. Total comprehensive income more than doubled to SR1.92 billion, up 120.85 percent from the same period last year. The bank’s share price rose 0.92 percent to SR17.50.
Riyad Bank posted a 19.39 percent year-on-year increase in net profit for the first quarter of 2025, reaching SR2.49 billion compared to SR2.07 billion in the same period last year.
Total operating income grew 10.18 percent year on year to SR4.5 billion, while total comprehensive income increased by 23.62 percent to SR2.68 billion.
The bank attributed the rise in profitability to growth in net special commission income, trading income, exchange income, and net fee and commission income.
Operating expenses fell due to lower impairment charges for credit losses and other financial assets, though this was partially offset by higher employee and premises-related costs. Despite the strong earnings, Riyad Bank’s share price slipped 0.82 percent to SR30.15.
Davos meet founder Klaus Schwab quits as WEF chair
ZURICH: Klaus Schwab, founder of the World Economic Forum, whose annual gathering of business and political leaders in the Swiss mountain resort of Davos became a symbol of globalization, has resigned as chair of its trustees.
The Geneva-based WEF made the announcement on Monday after revealing earlier this month that the 87-year-old Schwab, who for decades has been the face of the Davos get-together, would be stepping down, without giving a firm timeline.
“Following my recent announcement, and as I enter my 88th year, I have decided to step down from the position of Chair and as a member of the Board of Trustees, with immediate effect,” Schwab said in a statement released by the WEF.
The forum did not say why he was quitting.
The WEF board said in the statement it had accepted Schwab’s resignation at an extraordinary meeting on April 20, with Vice Chairman Peter Brabeck-Letmathe serving as interim chairman while the search for a new chair began.
The German-born Schwab established the WEF in 1971 with the aim of creating a forum for policymakers and top corporate executives to tackle major global issues.
The village of Davos gradually became a fixture on the international calendar in January when political leaders, CEOs and celebrities got together in discreet, neutral Switzerland to discuss the agenda for the coming year.
Saudi Arabia, Algeria deepen economic ties with new business pacts
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia and Algeria signed a series of agreements to boost trade and investment as officials and executives from both countries convened in Algiers for a high-level forum.
The Saudi-Algerian Business Forum, held on April 20 in the Algerian capital, featured extensive discussions on enhancing bilateral economic cooperation across sectors including tourism, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
This comes as Saudi Arabia and Algeria maintain long-standing economic and diplomatic ties, anchored by their membership in the Arab League and OPEC. Trade between the two has steadily grown, with Saudi Arabia becoming a key supplier of industrial goods, petrochemicals, and plastics to Algeria.
In a speech at the opening of the forum, Saudi Ambassador to Algeria Abdullah bin Nasser Al-Busairi described the economic meeting as a key driver for strengthening bilateral relations, highlighting the commitment of both countries’ leaderships to deepening ties across all sectors.
He pointed out that “the forum is an opportunity to discuss joint cooperation in light of the positive indicators witnessed by trade exchange between the Kingdom and Algeria, which amounts to nearly $1 billion,” SPA reported.
Al-Busairi highlighted the notable growth of Saudi investments in Algeria, particularly in the pharmaceutical and food industries, “calling on Saudi investors to explore the opportunities available in the Algerian market, in light of the guarantees and benefits provided by the new investment law.”
Al-Busairi expressed his confidence that “the bilateral meetings between Saudi and Algerian businessmen will result in practical initiatives that serve the interests of both countries and enhance the level of cooperation and partnership between them,” the SPA added.
The chairman of the Saudi-Algerian Business Council, Raed bin Ahmed Al-Mazrou, emphasized that the time has come to elevate bilateral relations, particularly in the economic sector.
He highlighted the strong support from the leaderships of both countries for this initiative and their commitment to strengthening and advancing it.
He noted the investment opportunities offered by the Algerian market, the long-standing Saudi experience spanning more than five decades, and the openness of the Saudi market to initiatives by Algerian investors, in order to advance and enhance cooperation between the two countries.
Kamel Moula, president of the Algerian Council for Economic Renewal, said the forum offers a valuable platform to establish successful ventures and exchange expertise, contributing to sustainable growth in both countries.
He pointed to promising opportunities in sectors such as food manufacturing, iron and steel, tourism and entertainment, and information and communication technology.
Dubai inflation eases to 2.79% in March as housing, transport costs moderate
RIYADH: Dubai’s annual inflation rate eased in March, hitting its lowest level since October 2024, according to official data released by the Dubai Statistics Center.
The inflation rate in the emirate slowed to 2.79 percent in March, down from 3.15 percent in February. The decline was primarily driven by a deeper deflation in food and beverage prices, which dropped by 3.34 percent year-on-year, compared to a 0.85 percent decline in the previous month.
Dubai continues to report relatively moderate inflation compared to other major cities in the region. Analysts attribute this trend to the government’s proactive measures to maintain price stability while fostering economic growth.
Despite persistent global inflationary pressures, Dubai’s economy remains resilient, supported by a diverse mix of sectors including tourism, real estate, and trade.
Looking ahead, the UAE Central Bank has forecast nationwide inflation at 2 percent for 2025 —well below the global average. Non-tradable components of the consumer basket are expected to be the main contributors to price movements in the coming year.
The March data also pointed to continued deflation in other key categories. Food and beverage prices posted a monthly deflation rate of 0.31 percent, slightly higher than the 0.21 percent recorded in February.
Clothing and footwear prices declined 2.69 percent year on year, mirroring the previous month’s figures. Meanwhile, prices in the information and communication sector saw a 1.96 percent annual drop in March, compared to a 1.95 percent decline in February.
The data also showed a continued rise in prices within several key sectors. The housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels category recorded a 7.16 percent increase in March, slightly down from 7.36 percent in February.
The insurance and financial services sector experienced notable inflation as well, with prices rising 5.83 percent, up from 5.20 percent the previous month.
Price increases were also observed across health, education, and personal care, social protection, and miscellaneous goods and services. Health costs climbed 3.1 percent, education rose 2.76 percent, and personal care and related services increased 2.52 percent.
For comparison, September’s figures showed no change in health and education, while personal care had risen by 1.48 percent.
The tobacco sector registered a 2.12 percent year-on-year increase, unchanged from February. Meanwhile, prices in the recreation, sport, and culture category grew 1.66 percent, though at a slower pace compared to 3.93 percent in the previous month.
Additional monthly gains were recorded in insurance and financial services, which edged up 1.47 percent in March versus 1.41 percent in February. Prices for furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance rose 0.36 percent, matching the previous month’s rate. The restaurants and accommodation services category saw a 0.25 percent increase, down from 0.72 percent in February.
In a separate report published in December, FOREX.com, a subsidiary of US-based StoneX Group Inc., projected strong economic resilience for the UAE in 2025.
The outlook was supported by solid consumer spending, record-high foreign direct investment, and the nation’s ongoing economic diversification efforts, despite regional challenges.
Saudi Arabia to drive Islamic finance growth in 2025, S&P says
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is poised to play a key role in propelling the growth of the global Islamic finance industry in 2025, underpinned by non-oil economic expansion and robust sukuk issuance, according to a new analysis.
The Kingdom’s banking system growth, supported by Vision 2030 initiatives, is expected to contribute significantly to the expansion of Islamic banking assets next year, S&P Global Ratings said in its latest outlook report.
Saudi Arabia’s debt market has seen significant growth in recent years, attracting investors’ interest in debt instruments amid rising interest rates.
“We expect economic growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE will continue supporting Islamic banking asset expansion in 2025, barring any significant disruptions from global trade tensions or a further decline in oil prices,” said S&P Global.
The report also noted that Vision 2030 “will continue to translate into significant banking system growth, provided it attracts sufficient refinancing sources, including sukuk issuances from the international capital market.”
Earlier this month, Kuwait Financial Center, also known as Markaz, reported that the Kingdom led the Gulf Cooperation Council in primary bond and sukuk issuances during the first quarter, raising $31.01 billion from 41 offerings. That accounted for 60.2 percent of total GCC issuances during the period.
S&P Global said the strong performance of the UAE’s non-oil economy, along with capital expenditure needs across various sectors, will continue to support financing requirements and sukuk issuances in 2025.
The US-based agency added that the growth of the global Islamic finance market will also be supported by countries in the GCC, including Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, as well as by nations in the Asia-Pacific region such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia.
“The financing growth of Islamic banks will continue to outshine conventional banks’ credit growth, facilitating market share gains. However, this growth might be somewhat tempered by local currency volatility,” the report said.
Resilient growth
The global Islamic finance industry is expected to maintain its steady growth momentum in 2025, supported by financing needs linked to economic diversification efforts, according to S&P Global.
The agency said strong performance in both banking and sukuk segments helped the industry grow 10.6 percent year-on-year in 2024, with total sukuk outstanding surpassing $1 trillion for the first time in November.
Banking assets accounted for about 60 percent of the Islamic finance industry’s growth in 2024, up from 54 percent in the previous year. The GCC region was the primary driver, contributing 81 percent of that growth — two-thirds of which came from Saudi Arabia, the report showed.
Islamic banking, also known as Islamic finance, refers to financial activities that comply with Shariah law. Sukuk, or Islamic bonds, are Shariah-compliant debt instruments through which investors gain partial ownership of an issuer’s assets until maturity.
Commenting on the outlook, Mohamed Damak, head of Islamic Finance at S&P Global Ratings, said: “Financing needs driven by economic transformation programs will remain high, and the inherent preference for Islamic finance will persist. As a result, despite growing uncertainty, we expect the Islamic finance industry to grow in 2025.”
According to S&P Global, oil prices are expected to average $65 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and $70 per barrel in 2026, which could support growth in most core Islamic economies.
The agency projected that global sukuk issuance is likely to reach between $190 billion and $200 billion in 2025, assuming current market volatility does not have a significant impact. Foreign currency-denominated issuance is expected to contribute $70 billion to $80 billion.
The report also noted that global sukuk issuances declined slightly in 2024, totaling $193.4 billion compared to $197.8 billion in 2023.
In a separate forecast made in January, Fitch Ratings said global sukuk issuances could reach $190 billion to $200 billion this year, driven by increased offerings in countries such as Saudi Arabia and Indonesia.
S&P Global’s findings align with a separate analysis released by Moody’s in September, which projected that the profitability of Islamic banks in the GCC will remain strong over the next 12 to 18 months. Moody’s attributed this to stable oil prices, government-led economic diversification initiatives, and high levels of business confidence.
In December, a report by Kamco Invest projected that Saudi Arabia will see the largest share of bond maturities in the GCC region between 2025 and 2029, totaling $168 billion.
The latest report from S&P Global said sustainable sukuk issuance is expected to range between $10 billion and $12 billion in 2025, compared to $11.9 billion in 2024 and $11.4 billion in 2023.
The issuance of sustainable sukuk will be supported by the Islamic finance guidelines introduced by the International Capital Market Association in April 2024, along with other regulatory initiatives.
The guidelines allow a broader range of assets to be used as underlying assets for sukuk, provided the proceeds are invested in green or social assets and projects. This added flexibility is aimed at addressing the shortage of sustainable assets in the Islamic finance space.
In 2024, Saudi Arabia accounted for 38 percent of total sukuk issuances.
However, the volume of sustainable sukuk issuance in the UAE declined by 60 percent in 2024 compared to the previous year.
“We anticipate an increase in sustainable sukuk issuance when GCC issuers implement climate transition plans more quickly and make progress toward renewable energy targets, particularly if regulators offer incentives for sustainable issuances,” said the report.
Potential challenges
In the report, S&P Global also highlighted several challenges that could affect the global Islamic finance industry, including a potential decline in crude oil prices and the adoption of the draft Shariah Standard 62.
In late 2023, the Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions released an exposure draft of Shariah Standard 62 on sukuk.
The proposed guidelines address a range of market elements, including Shariah requirements for issuances, asset backing and ownership transfer, investment and financing structures, as well as trading and settlement procedures.
“Adopting Sharia Standard 62 could disrupt the sukuk market from 2026 by potentially reclassifying the instruments from debt-like to equity-like. But the extent of this will depend on whether the standard is approved, its content, and when it will be implemented,” said S&P Global.
It added: “If Standard 62 is adopted as proposed, we anticipate the industry could become more fragmented and less attractive to investors and issuers due to higher sukuk pricing for issuers and fewer fixed-income investors.”
In January, Fitch Ratings echoed similar views, noting that the adoption of AAOIFI guidelines could alter the structure of the sukuk market and potentially lead to increased fragmentation.
