LONDON: If you do not know the problem with Arsene Wenger, you have not been paying attention. Wenger was a great football manager. He no longer is.
Wenger was an innovator, a man with ideas and methods that provided Arsenal with a competitive advantage. Armed with superior physical preparation and more astute recruitment than his domestic opponents, Wenger won the Premier League in his first full campaign as Arsenal manager. He would win two more in the next six seasons, culminating with the 2003-04 “Invincibles.”
From that point on the Frenchman went from riding a tide of innovation to stubbornly fighting against it. Sir Alex Ferguson had observed the benefits of diet and conditioning, and pragmatically integrated them into Manchester United’s regimen. Jose Mourinho arrived from Portugal as a European champion, bringing a revolutionary training method and an attention to tactical detail before and during matches that immediately turned Chelsea into England’s dominant team.
Unlike Ferguson — who recognized another opponent with a competitive advantage and moved to emulate it (in his case by hiring Carlos Queiroz) — Wenger refused to learn or adapt. For over a decade now, he has prepared his players in essentially the same way, sent them into matches on a mantra that faith in their ability to play superior football will overcome all opponents, while offering little assistance in the shape of tailored tactical nous.
“The performance on the day will make the decision,” intoned Wenger ahead of a 2008 Champions League quarterfinal. “What is important is we play with our heart, our belief and we know we can play.”
He had been saying much the same during the decade that preceded it. He has been saying much the same for the decade that followed it. All coupled with a steady decline in the performances delivered. The definition of insanity, they say, is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.
All of which leaves Arsenal in a difficult place. Sunday’s League Cup final capitulation to a Manchester City side far below the peak of their own powers means Wenger’s last remaining shot at silverware is the Europa League.
With fourth-placed Tottenham 10 (and fifth-placed Chelsea eight) Premier League points ahead of them with 11 games remaining, it appears his only realistic route back to the Champions League.
Wenger, of course, has never won a European title — the competitive advantage he brought to the English game was not one he held over so many continental opponents. After losing at home to tiny Ostersund, the next round involves a tricky head-to-head with AC Milan, another club for whom the backdoor route to the Champions League has taken on extra significance.
For several seasons now, Wenger has concentrated resources on securing Arsenal’s berth in Europe’s premier club competition. To miss out in two consecutive attempts would be just another sign of their long, painful demise under his management. How his employers respond to that will be instructive.
As a company, Arsenal are in good financial health. Turnover exceeded £400 million ($562 million) for the first time last season, a figure surpassed only by Manchester United, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Manchester City. The club is profitable and its stadium has developed from millstone into cash cow.
Wenger is contracted as manager for one more season, taking him to a few months short of his 70th birthday. While majority shareholder Stan Kroenke has shown no appetite for enforcing the Frenchman’s exit, his chief executive, Ivan Gazidis, has put in place a framework of appointments that should make a change of manager easier to effect.
Within the past 12 months, Arsenal have installed Darren Burgess as their director of high performance, Sven Mislintat as head of recruitment and Raul Sanllehi as head of football relations. The three new arrivals are considered to lead their field in the two areas where Wenger once led domestically — physical preparation and player recruitment.
None, however, can fully implement their expertize while Wenger remains as manager, so something will have to give.
It would seem logical to conclude that a man with such stubborn faith in his own abilities will want to leave a club he has devoted so much of his life to on a relative high. If their fabled French professor cannot find that summit in Lyon in May, will Arsenal have the courage to convince him to move to an honorary role upstairs?

ARSENAL UNDER WENGER — A SLOW DECLINE
Trophies won in first decade: 11
Trophies won in second decade: 5

Premier League titles in first decade: 3
Premier League titles in second decade: 0

Average final finishing position in PL in first decade: 2.1
Average final finishing position in PL in second decade: 3.5