CAIRO: The sole candidate running against Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi has had two showcase campaign rallies in downtown Cairo. The first was a disaster. No one showed up except a few campaign workers.
The second, on March 11, was a slight improvement: 30 people attended. They held banners and chanted slogans, though the chants weren’t exactly resounding victory cries for their candidate, an almost unknown politician named Moussa Mustafa Moussa.
“Whether Moussa wins or el-Sisi wins, either is our president!” they shouted.
There is no question the general-turned-president el-Sisi will win a second four-year term. But the March 26-28 election will likely be remembered as the event that signaled Egypt’s break with the little pretense it had left of democratic rule, seven years after a popular uprising toppled autocrat Hosni Mubarak in the name of democracy.
The election was preceded by a purge of would-be opposing candidates that was unprecedented even in comparison to Mubarak’s nearly 30-year rule. Authorities also clamped down on the media, even egging the public to report to the police anyone they feel is depicting the country in a bad light.
The question raised by many observers is why such extreme measures were taken to ensure a vote that el-Sisi would probably win anyway. El-Sisi seems convinced that a genuinely contested election could destabilize the country, allow his Islamist foes a back door into politics or interfere with his high-octane, single-handed drive to revive the battered economy.
El-Sisi was first elected in a 2014 landslide, riding on popularity after, as army chief, he led the military’s ouster of Islamist President Muhammad Mursi. He kept much of that popularity while ferociously cracking down on Islamists and secular dissenters.
He has insisted stability must take priority over freedoms as he carried out multiple, large-scale infrastructure projects and implemented painful austerity reforms. With those reforms, el-Sisi has succeeded in bringing some life back to the economy, though at the cost of inflation that has badly hurt many in the impoverished population. El-Sisi has also made a name for himself on the international stage as a champion against Islamic militancy.
After the election, el-Sisi and his supporters will very likely try to get rid of the constitution’s two term limit on the presidency, said Paul Salem, a senior Middle East expert from the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
“It might be the view of el-Sisi and his administration that this is needed for stability for economic and security reasons,” Salem told The Associated Press.
“My own personal view is that this buys stability for the short term but makes any transfer of power which has to happen sooner or later much more difficult,” Salem added.
Moussa, an ardent el-Sisi supporter, entered the race at the last minute to prevent the embarrassment of a one-candidate election. An extremely polite contestant, he has avoided sounding eager to win, never criticizes el-Sisi and in fact often praises him.
El-Sisi hasn’t bothered to campaign in person. Instead, the streets of Cairo and other cities have been swamped in a tidal wave of billboards, banners and posters with his image declaring: “He is the hope.”
A decent turnout is the one thing left to give the vote a measure of respectability. El-Sisi’s supporters have organized rallies urging the public to vote. Pro-government media proclaim that voting is a religious duty and failing to do so is “high treason.” Moussa’s supporters chanted at his rally that would-be boycotters are traitors and cowards.
In a speech Monday, el-Sisi urged everyone to vote, “whatever your political choices and opinions.” Laughing, he told the crowd, “I love you, go out and vote.”
Imad Hussein, the pro-el-Sisi editor of Al-Shorouk newspaper, criticized the handling of the election, not because the field of candidates was engineered but because it wasn’t done smoothly.
“We, of course, hoped to have a genuinely contested election,” he wrote last month. “But since we don’t have that, the government was supposed to at least prepare the stage to make it look democratic.”
The methodical elimination of opponents suggested el-Sisi felt a vulnerability — particularly to a candidate rooted in the military who could exploit possible cracks in his popularity, whether over pain from economic reforms, resentment over crackdowns or frustration over continued militant violence.
Several candidates dropped out, citing intimidation and harassment. But the harshest treatment was dealt out to two former generals: former military chief of staff Maj. Gen. Sami Annan and former air force general Ahmed Shafiq.
The candidacy of Annan “would have created a conflict that would impact on the ‘holy’ unity of the armed forces and push into the open files that can only remain secret,” analyst Abdel-Azeem Hamad wrote in a Feb. 22 column. Annan was the second-highest figure in the military’s supreme council that ruled Egypt for more than a year after Mubarak’s fall.
The 70-year-old Annan was an unquestioned member of the “deep state,” ensuring the military, police and other key institutions would not oppose his presidency, one of his top campaign aides, Hisham Genena, said in an interview last month.
“This blend of civilians and military men caused the regime to panic,” he said, alluding to Annan’s choice of him and a left-wing university professor as his top aides.
Annan struck a progressive tone in his short-lived candidacy. In a January video announcing his run, he lamented encroachments on freedoms and Egyptians’ suffering under el-Sisi’s economic reforms, and he called on the military to remain neutral in the voting.
Over the next three days, top military brass — including Egypt’s former military ruler, Field Marshal Mohammed Tantawi — tried to dissuade Annan from running, Genena said.
Annan brushed them off. Finally, authorities moved: on Jan. 23, he was grabbed from his car by masked men on a Cairo highway.
He has been detained ever since at a military prison, facing charges of incitement against the military, forgery and failing to secure clearance from the military to run for president.
Senior security officials said Annan had been under surveillance for months and was directly advised not to run, to maintain the military’s image as united without rival loyalties.
“He was fully aware of the consequences that awaited him ... The warnings were crystal clear,” said one of the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the media.
As he went to file an appeal against Annan’s arrest, Genena was beaten up by thugs his lawyers contend were sent by the police. Genena was later arrested after he claimed in a TV interview that Annan had documents incriminating Egypt’s leadership.
Annan is now under pressure to accept house arrest and silence in exchange for the dropping of all charges, according to a person with first-hand knowledge of the case. So far he has refused, but “they are bringing up all sorts of allegations” to push him into it, said the person, who spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity for the same reason as the security officials.
In the case of Shafiq, authorities were likely worried not just by his military credentials. Mubarak’s last prime minister, Shafiq ran in the 2012 presidential elections, seen as Egypt’s freest vote, finishing a close second to Mursi.
Shafiq lived in the United Arab Emirates since that election.
He announced his intention to run again in a Nov. 29 video. The Emiratis, close allies of el-Sisi, promptly arrested him and deported him to Egypt. At Cairo’s airport, he was whisked away by security agents, interrogated and confined under guard at a hotel, his phone confiscated, the security officials said.
Over the next days, senior security officials pressed him to drop out of the race, according to the officials. Pro-government media launched a high-intensity campaign to discredit him, threatening that past corruption cases against him would be revived and hinting at exposure of alleged sexual indiscretions.
Shafiq buckled, announcing his withdrawal on Jan. 7. He has not been seen since — effectively under house arrest, the officials said.
Annan and Shafiq posed particular problems for el-Sisi. They would have offered safe bets for voters seeking change but wary of parting company with the military, which many Egyptians still respect as a protector of stability and which produced all but two of Egypt’s presidents since the dawn of the republic in the 1950s.
But more worrisome, the tumultuous events of recent weeks fueled speculation about possible fissures within the military, which prides itself on iron-clad unity and secrecy.
It is not known whether Annan or Shafiq’s challenges to el-Sisi had any support among senior officers. But other developments have also raised question marks, such as unexplained dismissals in past months of the military’s chief of staff and the head of the General Intelligence Directorate, Egypt’s version of the CIA, who also hails from the military.
Government-controlled media have briefly mentioned conflicts among security and intelligence agencies, which are traditionally headed by men of military background, and there have been unconfirmed reports of top generals being quietly sidelined.
Further fueling speculation, el-Sisi in a recent speech angrily lashed out at unspecified opponents. “By God, the price of Egypt’s stability and security is my life and the life of the army,” he warned, directing an intense gaze at Defense Minister Sidki Sobhi, seated to his left. “I am not a politician who just talks,” he added.
Michael W. Hanna, an Egypt expert from New York’s Century Foundation, believes el-Sisi’s fury was chiefly directed at rivals inside the military.
“The regime is super sensitive,” he said, “but it may also be facing internal tensions and rivalries that are seeping out into the public domain.”
In Egypt election, El-Sisi imposes stability over democracy
In Egypt election, El-Sisi imposes stability over democracy
15 Turkish-backed fighters killed in north Syria clashes with Kurdish-led forces
BEIRUT: At least 15 Ankara-backed Syrian fighters were killed Sunday after Kurdish-led forces infiltrated their territory in the country’s north, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said.
Fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who controls swathes of the country’s northeast, “infiltrated positions of the Turkish-backed” fighters in the Aleppo countryside, said the Observatory, which has a network of sources inside Syria.
“The two sides engaged in violent clashes” that killed 15 of the Ankara-backed fighters, the monitor said.
An AFP correspondent in Syria’s north said the clashes had taken place near the city of Al-Bab, where authorities said schools would be suspended on Monday due to the violence.
The SDF is a US-backed force that spearheaded the fighting against the Daesh group in its last Syria strongholds before its territorial defeat in 2019.
It is dominated by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), viewed by Ankara as an offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) which claimed the attack on Ankara.
Turkish troops and allied rebel factions control swathes of northern Syria following successive cross-border offensives since 2016, most of them targeting the SDF.
Israel moving towards a ceasefire deal in Lebanon, Axios reports
BEIRUT: Israel is moving towards a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon with the Hezbollah militant group, Axios reporter Barak Ravid posted on X on Sunday, citing a senior Israeli official.
A separate report from Israel's public broadcaster Kan, citing an Israeli official, said there was no green light given on an agreement in Lebanon, with issues still yet to be resolved.
Russia plane evacuated in Turkiye as engine catches fire
- “Eighty nine passengers and six crew members on board were safely evacuated at 9:43 p.m. (1843 GMT) and there were no injuries”
ISTANBUL: More than 90 passengers and crew were evacuated from a Russian plane Sunday after one of its engines caught fire while landing at an airport in southern Turkiye, the transport ministry said.
The incident involved a Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SU95) operated by Russia’s Azimuth Airlines.
They plane had just landed at Antalya airport on Turkiye’s Mediterranean coast when a fire broke out in one of its engines, a ministry statement said.
“A SU95 type and RA89085-registered aircraft of Azimuth Airlines traveling from Sochi airport in Russia to Antalya airport had an engine fire during landing,” it said.
“Eighty nine passengers and six crew members on board were safely evacuated at 9:43 p.m. (1843 GMT) and there were no injuries.”
All further scheduled landings at the airport would be canceled until 3:00 am, it added, saying other planes waiting to depart would use the airport’s military runway for takeoff.
An airport official told Anadolou state news agency that the fire had affected its left engine but had been quickly extinguished.
War-hit Lebanon suspends in-person classes in Beirut area til end of December
- Education minister announced “the suspension of in-person teaching” in schools, technical institutes and private higher education institutions in Beirut
- Suspension of in-person teaching also applies to parts of neighboring Metn, Baabda and Shouf districts starting Monday
BEIRUT: Lebanon has suspended in-person classes in the Beirut area until the end of December, the education ministry announced Sunday, citing safety concerns after a series of Israeli air strikes this week.
Education Minister Abbas Halabi announced in a statement “the suspension of in-person teaching” in schools, technical institutes and private higher education institutions in Beirut and parts of the neighboring Metn, Baabda and Shouf districts starting Monday “for the safety of students, educational institutions and parents, in light of the current dangerous conditions.”
Earlier on Sunday, Lebanese state media reported two Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, about an hour after the Israeli military posted evacuation calls online for parts of the Hezbollah bastion.
“Israeli warplanes launched two violent strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs in the Kafaat area,” the official National News Agency said.
The southern Beirut area has been repeatedly struck since September 23 when Israel intensified its air campaign also targeting Hezbollah bastions in Lebanon’s east and south. It later sent in ground troops to southern Lebanon.
Legal threats close in on Israel’s Netanyahu, could impact ongoing wars
- The trial opened in 2020 and Netanyahu is finally scheduled to take the stand next month after the court rejected his latest request to delay testimony on the grounds that he had been too busy overseeing the war to prepare his defense
JERUSALEM: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces legal perils at home and abroad that point to a turbulent future for the Israeli leader and could influence the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, analysts and officials say. The International Criminal Court (ICC) stunned Israel on Thursday by issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the 13-month-old Gaza conflict. The bombshell came less than two weeks before Netanyahu is due to testify in a corruption trial that has dogged him for years and could end his political career if he is found guilty. He has denied any wrongdoing. While the domestic bribery trial has polarized public opinion, the prime minister has received widespread support from across the political spectrum following the ICC move, giving him a boost in troubled times.
Netanyahu has denounced the court’s decision as antisemitic and denied charges that he and Gallant targeted Gazan civilians and deliberately starved them.
“Israelis get really annoyed if they think the world is against them and rally around their leader, even if he has faced a lot of criticism,” said Yonatan Freeman, an international relations expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
“So anyone expecting that the ICC ruling will end this government, and what they see as a flawed (war) policy, is going to get the opposite,” he added.
A senior diplomat said one initial consequence was that Israel might be less likely to reach a rapid ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon or secure a deal to bring back hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza.
“This terrible decision has ... badly harmed the chances of a deal in Lebanon and future negotiations on the issue of the hostages,” said Ofir Akunis, Israel’s consul general in New York.
“Terrible damage has been done because these organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas ... have received backing from the ICC and thus they are likely to make the price higher because they have the support of the ICC,” he told Reuters.
While Hamas welcomed the ICC decision, there has been no indication that either it or Hezbollah see this as a chance to put pressure on Israel, which has inflicted huge losses on both groups over the past year, as well as on civilian populations.
IN THE DOCK The ICC warrants highlight the disconnect between the way the war is viewed here and how it is seen by many abroad, with Israelis focused on their own losses and convinced the nation’s army has sought to minimize civilian casualties.
Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said the ICC move would likely harden resolve and give the war cabinet license to hit Gaza and Lebanon harder still.
“There’s a strong strand of Israeli feeling that runs deep, which says ‘if we’re being condemned for what we are doing, we might just as well go full gas’,” he told Reuters.
While Netanyahu has received wide support at home over the ICC action, the same is not true of the domestic graft case, where he is accused of bribery, breach of trust and fraud.
The trial opened in 2020 and Netanyahu is finally scheduled to take the stand next month after the court rejected his latest request to delay testimony on the grounds that he had been too busy overseeing the war to prepare his defense.
He was due to give evidence last year but the date was put back because of the war. His critics have accused him of prolonging the Gaza conflict to delay judgment day and remain in power, which he denies. Always a divisive figure in Israel, public trust in Netanyahu fell sharply in the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas assault on southern Israel that caught his government off guard, cost around 1,200 lives.
Israel’s subsequent campaign has killed more than 44,000 people and displaced nearly all Gaza’s population at least once, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe, according to Gaza officials.
The prime minister has refused advice from the state attorney general to set up an independent commission into what went wrong and Israel’s subsequent conduct of the war.
He is instead looking to establish an inquiry made up only of politicians, which critics say would not provide the sort of accountability demanded by the ICC.
Popular Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth said the failure to order an independent investigation had prodded the ICC into action. “Netanyahu preferred to take the risk of arrest warrants, just as long as he did not have to form such a commission,” it wrote on Friday.
ARREST THREAT The prime minister faces a difficult future living under the shadow of an ICC warrant, joining the ranks of only a few leaders to have suffered similar humiliation, including Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi and Serbia’s Slobodan Milosevic.
It also means he risks arrest if he travels to any of the court’s 124 signatory states, including most of Europe.
One place he can safely visit is the United States, which is not a member of the ICC, and Israeli leaders hope US President-elect Donald Trump will bring pressure to bear by imposing sanctions on ICC officials.
Mike Waltz, Trump’s nominee for national security adviser, has already promised tough action: “You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January,” he wrote on X on Friday. In the meantime, Israeli officials are talking to their counterparts in Western capitals, urging them to ignore the arrest warrants, as Hungary has already promised to do.
However, the charges are not going to disappear soon, if at all, meaning fellow leaders will be increasingly reluctant to have relations with Netanyahu, said Yuval Shany, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.
“In a very direct sense, there is going to be more isolation for the Israeli state going forward,” he told Reuters.