NEW YORK: Saudi Arabia and Russia are working on a historic long-term pact that could extend controls over world crude supplies by major exporters for many years.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said that Riyadh and Moscow were considering a deal to greatly extend a short-term alliance on oil curbs that began in January 2017 after a crash in crude prices.
“We are working to shift from a year-to-year agreement to a 10 to 20 year agreement,” the crown prince told Reuters in an interview in New York late on Monday.
“We have agreement on the big picture, but not yet on the detail.”
Russia, not a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, has worked alongside the 14-member group during previous oil gluts, but a 10 to 20 year deal between the two would be unprecedented.
Top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia recruited Russia and other non-OPEC countries to help drain oversupply when oil prices collapsed to below $30 a barrel in 2016 from over $100 in 2014.
Crude has since recovered to $70 but fast-rising output from US shale producers has capped prices.
“This is all about whether the arrangement is a short-term expedient to deal with this particular crisis in the oil market, or whether it reflects a realignment in world oil,” said oil historian Daniel Yergin, vice chairman at consultancy IHS Markit.
“OPEC countries want to find a way to institutionalize this relationship rather than to have it be a one-shot deal.”
Robert McNally at consultancy Rapidan Energy Group said Riyadh wanted help in breaking the boom-bust cycles that characterize oil markets by capping crude on the upside as well as by helping lift low oil prices.
“History shows that without a long-term, powerful, competent coherent, disciplined swing producer in the oil markets ... you get space-mountain oil prices. Wild volatility of the sort we have seen in the past 10 to 15 years and that Saudi Arabia and Russia do not want to see again,” McNally said.
He said that would require Russia to join Saudi in building spare production capacity to use when prices rise too much.
SAUDI, RUSSIA ALLIANCE “THICKER THAN OIL“
A long-term pact between Moscow and Riyadh would effectively co-opt Russia to the Saudi-led OPEC cartel while strengthening Russia’s hand in the Middle East where the United States has long been the dominant super-power.
News of the potential oil alliance came at a time when the two have been working to cement an economic relationship despite being at odds over the conflict in Syria, where they back opposing sides.
A meeting between the Saudi crown prince and Russian president Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of a G20 meeting in China in September 2016 was instrumental in bringing Russia on board to support OPEC, non-OPEC oil curbs.
Last October, Saudi King Salman became the first Saudi monarch to visit Russia, providing investment and political support for a Russian economy battered by Western sanctions.
“It is a very important strategic development,” Helima Croft at RBC Capital Markets said of a potential 10 to 20 year Saudi-Russia oil collaboration.
“First, the Crown Prince is making the statement, not the oil minister, one more clear sign that he (like Putin) is the final word on his country’s oil policy.
“Second it is one more sign of the major reversal in Saudi-Russia relations. Saudi was a staunch cold war ally of the US Now this Russia-Saudi alliance appears to be thicker than oil and seems to be driven by the personal affinity between Putin and MBS,” said Croft.
ARAMCO IPO LATE 2018, EARLY 2019
The crown prince predicted that world oil demand would not peak until 2040, despite advances in renewable energy technologies and the electric vehicle.
In an attempt to end Saudi Arabia’s reliance on oil, he is leading a push to diversify the Saudi economy away from oil and gas by 2030.
Riyadh plans to raise funds through the flotation of a 5 percent stake in state Saudi oil company Aramco. Time is running out for an initial public offering this year but the crown prince said the IPO could still take place at the end of 2018 or in early 2019, depending on financial market conditions.
Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih said last week that documentation was ready but that a venue for the IPO had not yet been decided. The New York stock exchange is still in the running for the IPO, alongside London and Hong Kong, but Falih said there was a risk of a “frivolous” legal action if Aramco were listed in the United States.
OPEC seeks oil alliance with Russia for next 10-20 years - Saudi crown prince
OPEC seeks oil alliance with Russia for next 10-20 years - Saudi crown prince
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Saudi education POS defies trend, surges 178%: SAMA data
RIYADH: Education spending in Saudi Arabia soared 178.6 percent to SR249.5 million ($66.4 million) during the week of Nov. 17–23, bucking the broader decline across other sectors.
According to the Saudi Central Bank’s weekly point-of-sale transactions bulletin, education was the sole sector to record growth. Transactions in the category climbed 62.3 percent to 164,000.
By contrast, other consumer spending categories experienced sharp declines. Clothing and footwear posted the steepest drop, falling 25.1 percent to SR694 million. Hotel expenditures followed, dipping 23.5 percent to SR305.6 million.
Spending in restaurants and cafes, which accounted for the second-largest share of total POS value, decreased 19.6 percent to SR1.66 billion.
Overall, Saudi Arabia’s POS transactions shrank 13.1 percent week on week, with total expenditures declining to SR11.5 billion from SR13.2 billion in the prior week.
The central bank’s figures showed that the electronics sector saw a 9.3 percent slide to SR179.6 million, while telecommunications expenditures dropped 11.2 percent to SR104 million.
The food and beverages category — the largest contributor to POS transactions — saw a 9.8 percent dip to SR1.7 billion. Miscellaneous goods and services, which ranked third, fell 10.6 percent to SR1.3 billion. Together, the top three categories accounted for 41.3 percent, or SR4.7 billion, of the week’s total transaction value.
At 3 percent, the smallest decrease occurred in spending on construction and building materials, leading total payments to SR340.5 million. Expenditures in the health sector dipped by 7.3 percent to SR710 million.
Regional insights
Geographically, Riyadh dominated POS transactions, representing 35.9 percent of the total, with expenses in the capital reaching SR4.1 billion — an 8.2 percent decrease from the previous week.
Jeddah followed with a 14.2 percent dip to SR1.5 billion, and Dammam came in third at SR590.5 million, down 7.9 percent.
Hail experienced the most significant dip in spending, decreasing 20 percent to SR177.4 million. Tabouk and Abha recorded declines by 11.4 percent and 9.8 percent reaching SR209 million and SR134.9 million, respectively.
Makkah and Madinah saw the largest transaction decreases, falling 15.2 percent and 14.9 percent, respectively, to 7.6 million and 7.8 million transactions.
World leaders react to Lebanon war ceasefire
PARIS: World leaders have welcomed a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which came into force on Wednesday morning (0200 GMT).
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will protect Israel from the threat of Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah and create the conditions for a “lasting calm,” US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron said ahead of the truce coming into force.
“The announcement today will cease the fighting in Lebanon, and secure Israel from the threat of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations operating from Lebanon,” the leaders said in a joint statement.
The United States and France will work “to ensure this arrangement is fully implemented” and lead international efforts for “capacity-building” of the Lebanese army, they added.
Biden welcomed the deal as “good news” and also said the US would lead a fresh effort to secure a truce between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza.
Macron said the Lebanon ceasefire should “open the path” for an ending to the war in Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked the US president for his “involvement in securing the ceasefire agreement.”
He told Biden in a call that he appreciated the US leader’s “understanding that Israel will maintain its freedom of action in enforcing it,” according to Netanyahu’s office.
Ahead of Israel’s approval of the deal, Netanyahu said the “length of the ceasefire depends on what happens in Lebanon” and the truce would allow Israel to “intensify” pressure on Hamas and focus on the “Iranian threat.”
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said the ceasefire was a “fundamental step” toward restoring stability in the region.
Thanking France and the US for their involvement, Mikati also reiterated his government’s commitment to “strengthen the army’s presence in the south.”
Iran, a backer of both Hezbollah and Hamas, welcomed the end of Israel’s “aggression” in Lebanon, after the ceasefire came into force.
“Welcoming the news” of the end of Israel’s “aggression against Lebanon,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said, stressing Iran’s “firm support for the Lebanese government, nation and resistance.”
China said it was “paying close attention to the current situation in Lebanon and Israel.”
“We support all efforts conducive to easing tensions and achieving peace and welcome the agreement reached by relevant parties on a ceasefire,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock welcomed the deal, hailing it as “a ray of hope for the entire region.”
“People on both sides of the border want to live in genuine and lasting security,” Baerbock said, calling the deal “a success for diplomacy.”
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer praised a “long overdue” ceasefire that would “provide some measure of relief to the civilian populations” of both Israel and Lebanon.
Calling for the truce to be “turned into a lasting political solution in Lebanon,” Starmer vowed to be at the “forefront of efforts to break the ongoing cycle of violence in pursuit of a long-term, sustainable peace in the Middle East.”
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen hailed the “very encouraging news” of the ceasefire, saying it would increase Lebanon’s “internal security and stability.”
The announcement was welcome news “first and foremost for the Lebanese and Israeli people affected by the fighting,” Von der Leyen said.
“Lebanon will have an opportunity to increase internal security and stability thanks to Hezbollah’s reduced influence,” she said.
A top UN official welcomed the ceasefire agreement, but warned that “considerable work lies ahead” to implement the deal.
“Nothing less than the full and unwavering commitment of both parties is required,” said UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert.
Israeli strikes on Gaza Strip leave 15 dead, medics say
CAIRO: Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip killed 15 people on Wednesday, some of them in a school housing displaced people, medics in Gaza said, adding that the fatalities included two sons of a former Hamas spokesman.
Health officials in the Hamas-run enclave said eight Palestinians were killed and dozens of others wounded in an Israeli strike that hit the Al-Tabeaeen School, which was sheltering displaced families in Gaza City. Among those killed were two sons of former Hamas spokesman, Fawzi Barhoum, according to medics and Barhoum himself.
In the Shejaia suburb of Gaza City, another strike killed four people, while three people were killed in an Israeli air strike in Beit Lahiya on the northern edge of the enclave where army forces have been operating since last month.
Separately, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah came into effect on Wednesday after both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the US and France, a rare victory for diplomacy in a region shaken by two wars for over a year.
Iran-backed Hezbollah militants began firing missiles at Israel in solidarity with Hamas after the Palestinian militant group attacked Israel in October of 2023, killing around 1,200 people and capturing over 250 hostages, Israel has said, triggering the Gaza war.
Israel’s 13-month campaign in Gaza has left nearly 44,200 people dead and displaced nearly all the enclave’s population at least once, according to Gaza health officials.
Months of attempts to negotiate a ceasefire have yielded scant progress and negotiations are now on hold, with mediator Qatar saying it has told the two warring parties it would suspend its efforts until the sides are prepared to make concessions.
US President Joe Biden said on Tuesday his administration was pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza and that it was possible that Saudi Arabia and Israel could normalize relations.
Israeli military says it fired to stop suspects reaching Lebanon no-go zone
DUBAI: Israeli forces on Wednesday fired at several vehicles with suspects to prevent them from reaching a no-go zone in Lebanese territory and the suspects moved away, the Israeli military said in a statement, hours after a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah came into effect at 0200 GMT.
Oil Updates – prices steady with focus on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, OPEC+ policy
TOKYO: Oil prices steadied on Wednesday, with markets assessing the potential impact of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, and ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting of producers.
Brent crude futures rose 5 cents to $72.86 a barrel by 7:15 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 3 cents at $68.80 a barrel.
Both benchmarks settled lower on Tuesday after Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah will take effect on Wednesday after both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the US and France, US President Joe Biden said on Tuesday.
The accord cleared the way for an end to a conflict across the Israeli-Lebanese border that has killed thousands of people since it was ignited by the Gaza war last year.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was ready to implement the deal with Lebanon and would “respond forcefully to any violation” by Hezbollah.
“Market participants are assessing whether the ceasefire will be observed,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.
“We expect WTI to trade within the range of $65-$70 a barrel, factoring in weather conditions during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter, a potential increase in shale oil and gas production under the incoming Donald Trump administration in the US, and demand trends in China,” he said.
On the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, or OPEC+, sources said the group is discussing a further delay to a planned oil output hike that was due to start in January, ahead of a Dec. 1 meeting to decide policy for early 2025.
The group pumps about half the world’s oil and had planned to gradually roll back oil-production cuts with small increases over many months in 2024 and 2025. But a slowdown in Chinese and global demand, and rising output outside the group, have put a dampener on that plan.
“Our longstanding base case has been that OPEC+ defers the tapering of output cuts all the way through 2025,” Citi Research analysts said in a note, adding that the tapering could start in April instead of January.
“From the producer group’s point of view, holding off the unwind could allow the market the chance to be more balanced, via supply disruptions or more resilient demand, while bringing barrels back makes lower prices a foregone conclusion.”
In the US, President-elect Donald Trump said he would impose a 25 percent tariff on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada. Crude oil would not be exempt from the trade penalties, sources told Reuters on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, US crude oil stocks fell while fuel inventories rose last week, market sources said, citing API figures on Tuesday.
Crude stocks fell by 5.94 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 22, exceeding analysts’ forecast of a drop of about 600,000 barrels.
