WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump appears poised to drive a stake through the heart of the Iran nuclear deal Tuesday, when he announces his verdict on US sanctions relief underpinning the landmark accord.
Officials and diplomats expect the pugnacious US leader to ignore last-ditch European pleas and move to withdraw the United States from a 2015 agreement, which he insists was “very badly negotiated.”
Trump has, unsuccessfully, demanded changes to the Obama-era deal, which saw Iran mothball a suspected nuclear weapons program in return for massive sanctions relief.
Months of intensive talks between the United States and European allies now appear deadlocked, with Berlin, London and Paris refusing to rewrite the agreement.
The president tweeted he would announce his decision at 2 p.m. (1800 GMT), even as British foreign secretary Boris Johnson shuttled around Washington to reach a last-gasp breakthrough.
One European diplomat echoed the mood around foreign embassies in Washington, saying “there is plainly a difference of opinion,” acknowledging Trump seems poised to walk away.
Concretely, the US president will now to decide whether to continue to waive sanctions on Iran’s central bank and its oil sector dealings, a key pillar of the agreement.
“It’s pretty obvious to me that unless something changes in the next few days, I believe the president will not waive the sanctions,” the European official said.
“I would like to pretend to you today that I feel that there is a chance of the existing (deal) remaining intact,” the official said. “I think that that chance may exist but it is very small.”
A French official said President Emmanuel Macron left the United States last week after a similar diplomatic offensive “convinced that we would get a negative decision.”
“We are preparing more for the scenario of a partial or total withdrawal than for the US staying in the deal,” the official added.
Trump’s decision to scrap sanctions relief would have global ramifications, straining Iran’s already crisis-racked economy, heightening tensions in the Middle East and laying bare the biggest transatlantic rift since the Iraq War.
The Iranian rial had lost around a third of its value in six months, before authorities in April took the drastic step of pegging the exchange rate to the dollar.
Trump could also decide to stop waivers for a thicket of other sanctions against Iran, effectively ending US participation in the deal and putting European companies at risk of sanction.
His decision will be closely watched across the Middle East, where a number of powers are mulling their own nuclear programs, and in Pyongyang ahead of non-proliferation talks between Trump and Kim Jong Un.
Tehran has sent mixed signals about its potential response, hinting it could leave a fatally undermined deal and return to military scale uranium enrichment.
Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani — who very publicly advocated engaging with America and would be politically exposed should the deal fail — said his country would stay in the agreement even if the United States pulls out.
It is unclear whether Iran’s more hard-line military leaders, or Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, hold the same view.
And with tensions building between Iran and Israel, Tehran’s response could well come away from diplomatic antechambers or the meeting rooms of multilateral fora.
The United States does not allege that Iran is breaking the terms of the agreement, but says the accord itself does not permanently end Tehran’s controversial nuclear programs, stop missile tests or end bellicose Iranian activity in the region.
Since his days as a presidential candidate, Trump has vowed to scrap the deal, but has until now stopped short, amid fierce debate inside his administration.
He has complained, in particular, that Iran gets sanctions relief up front but could return to controversial activities once restrictions “sunset” in 2025.
His administration has also been angered by Iran’s support for Syrian President Bashar Assad, the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah in Syria’s civil war and Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen.
With the arrival of John Bolton as National Security Adviser and Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State the Iran hawks now appear to be in the driver’s seat.
Imposing oil sanctions could be the first step of a “a broad coercive campaign” to “break the regime’s back,” according to Cliff Kupchan of the Eurasia group.
But European powers are skeptical that Trump’s administration has a backup plan to restrain Iranian ambitions once he has made good on his campaign promise to tear up the deal.
Britain’s Johnson, who was in Washington to lobby Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Vice President Mike Pence, told Fox News: “Plan B does not seem to be, to me, particularly well-developed at this stage.”
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas warned the accord’s collapse could spark “an escalation” in the region and stressed that Washington’s European allies think the deal “makes the world a safer place.”
Trump to give verdict on Iran nuclear deal
Trump to give verdict on Iran nuclear deal
- The president tweeted he would announce his decision at 2 p.m
- Tehran has sent mixed signals about its potential response, hinting it could leave a fatally undermined deal and return to military scale uranium enrichment.
France urged to apologize for Polynesia nuclear tests
- Tens of thousands of people in the French overseas territory are estimated to have been exposed to harmful levels of radiation
- France conducted 193 nuclear tests in French Polynesia from 1966 until 1996
PARIS: Paris should apologize to French Polynesia for the fallout of nuclear tests there over three decades, which led to harmful radiation exposure, a French parliamentary report released on Tuesday said.
France conducted 193 nuclear tests in French Polynesia from 1966, especially at the Pacific archipelago’s Moruroa and Fangataufa atolls, to help build up its atomic weapon arsenal. These included atmospheric and underground tests which had severe health impacts.
Tens of thousands of people in the French overseas territory are estimated to have been exposed to harmful levels of radiation, leading to a significant public health crisis that has been largely ignored.
The tests remain a source of deep resentment in French Polynesia, where they are seen as evidence of racist colonial attitudes that disregarded the lives of islanders.
“The inquiry has strengthened the committee’s conviction that a request for forgiveness from France to French Polynesia is necessary,” the report said.
“This request is not merely a symbol, nor a request for repentance. It must be a... fundamental step in the process of reconciliation between French Polynesia and the State,” the authors said.
The report said the apology must be added to a 2004 law on French Polynesia’s semi-autonomous status.
Residents in the south Pacific Ocean islands are hoping for compensation for radiation victims.
The investigative website Disclose, citing declassified French military documents on the nearly 200 tests, reported in March that the impact from the fallout was far more extensive than authorities let on.
Only a few dozen civilians have been compensated for radiation exposure since the tests ended in 1996, Disclose said.
Four heavy US bombers stationed at key Indian Ocean base: image analysis
- The Pentagon said it was sending 'additional capabilities' to the Middle East amid an escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict
PARIS: Four US Stratofortress bombers are currently stationed at the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, according to an AFP analysis of satellite imagery, as the conflict between Israel and Iran extended to its fifth straight day.
The base, leased to the United States by Britain, is one of its key military facilities in the Asia-Pacific region, and was used as a hub for long-range bombers and ships during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The four B52H Stratofortresses, which can carry nuclear weapons or other precision-guided munitions, were spotted on a southern tarmac at Diego Garcia on Monday at 0922 GMT.
Images provided by Planet Labs indicate they arrived in mid-May.
A C-17 Globemaster III troop and cargo transport plane is also at the base, according to the AFP analysis, as well as six jets likely to be KC-135 airborne refueling tanker.
The Pentagon said Monday that it was sending “additional capabilities” to the Middle East amid an escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, while the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz canceled a Vietnam visit to head toward the Indian Ocean according to Marine Traffic, a ship-tracking site.
Washington has also redeployed around 30 refueling planes toward bases in Europe.
US spies said Iran wasn’t building a nuclear weapon, Trump dismisses that assessment
- The country was not building a nuclear weapon, the national intelligence director told lawmakers
- Gabbard brushed off the inconsistency, blaming the media for misconstruing her earlier testimony and asserting that “President Trump was saying the same thing that I said“
WASHINGTON: Tulsi Gabbard left no doubt when she testified to Congress about Iran’s nuclear program earlier this year.
The country was not building a nuclear weapon, the national intelligence director told lawmakers, and its supreme leader had not reauthorized the dormant program even though it had enriched uranium to higher levels.
But President Donald Trump dismissed the assessment of US spy agencies during an overnight flight back to Washington as he cut short his trip to the Group of Seven summit to focus on the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.
“I don’t care what she said,” Trump told reporters. In his view, Iran was “very close” to having a nuclear bomb.
Trump’s statement aligned him with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has described a nuclear-armed Iran as an imminent threat, rather than with his own top intelligence adviser. Trump was expected to meet with national security officials in the Situation Room on Tuesday as he plans next steps.
Gabbard brushed off the inconsistency, blaming the media for misconstruing her earlier testimony and asserting that “President Trump was saying the same thing that I said.”
“We are on the same page,” she told CNN. Asked for comment, Gabbard’s office referred to those remarks.
In her March testimony to lawmakers, Gabbard said the intelligence community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.”
She also said the US was closely monitoring Iran’s nuclear program, noting that the country’s “enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons.”
Trump’s contradiction of Gabbard echoed his feuds with US spy leaders during his first term, when he viewed them as part of a “deep state” that was undermining his agenda. Most notably, he sided with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018 when asked if Moscow had interfered in the 2016 election, saying Putin was “extremely strong and powerful in his denial.”
The latest break over Iran was striking because Trump has staffed his second administration with loyalists rather than establishment figures. Gabbard, a military veteran and former Democratic congresswoman from Hawaii, was narrowly confirmed by the Republican-controlled Senate because of her scant experience with intelligence or managing sprawling organizations.
Gabbard, who left the Democratic Party in 2022 and endorsed Trump in last year’s election, is expected to testify Tuesday in a closed session on Capitol Hill, along with CIA Director John Ratcliffe, during a previously scheduled budget hearing.
Both officials likely would face questions about their views on Iran and Trump’s latest statements. A representative for the CIA did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that Iran has enough enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs should it choose to do so. Iran maintains its nuclear program is peaceful.
An earlier intelligence report, compiled in November under then-President Joe Biden, a Democrat, also said Iran “is not building a nuclear weapon.”
However, it said the country has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce one, if it so chooses,” such as increasing stockpiles of enriched uranium and operating more advanced centrifuges. The report did not include any estimates for a timeline for how quickly a bomb could be built.
Trump’s immigration agenda is another place where he’s split with intelligence assessments. He cited the Alien Enemies Act, a 1798 wartime law, to deport Venezuelan migrants, which he justified by claiming that the Tren de Aragua gang was coordinating with the Venezuelan government. However, an intelligence assessment in April found no evidence of that.
Gabbard fired the two veteran intelligence officers who led the panel that created the assessment, saying they were terminated because of their opposition to Trump.
In response to those reports, the White House released a statement from Gabbard supporting the president.
“President Trump took necessary and historic action to safeguard our nation when he deported these violent Tren de Aragua terrorists,” the statement said. “Now that America is safer without these terrorists in our cities, deep state actors have resorted to using their propaganda arm to attack the President’s successful policies.”
India evacuates students from Tehran as Israel hits civilian sites
- About 6,000 Indian students are enrolled in Iranian universities
- So far 110 studying in Urmia have left the country through Armenia
NEW DELHI: India’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday it was moving Indian students out of Tehran, as many sought safety after their universities were shut down amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes.
Israeli attacks on Iran started on Friday, when Tel Aviv hit more than a dozen sites — including key nuclear facilities, residences of military leaders, and of scientists — claiming they were aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Daily attacks have been ongoing for the past five days after Iran retaliated with ballistic missile strikes against Israel.
As the Israeli military intensified its bombing of civilian targets, hitting Iran’s state broadcaster on Monday, stranded foreigners — including 6,000 Indian students — have been struggling to leave.
“Most of the students here were living in apartments, including me and my friend. The first blast in Tehran happened in Sa’adat Abad district, where me and my friend were living,” Hafsa Yaseen, a medical student at Shahid Beheshti University, told Arab News.
“One of our university’s nuclear scientists was martyred in these blasts. Situation is really bad.”
According to the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education, at least 224 people have been killed and 1,481 wounded in Israeli attacks since Friday. Most of the casualties have been reported in Tehran.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs confirmed in a statement that it was moving those studying at universities in the Iranian capital “out of the city for reasons of safety.”
Yaseen was among a group of a few hundred students moved on Monday to Qom, 140 km south of the capital city.
“Me and my friend were frightened, and we just thought it’s our turn now to die. We were literally calling our parents and telling them goodbye,” she said.
“We are not even safe here, because we are still in Iran (and) anything can happen ... We are in constant fear that we might die and our families are more stressed than us. I just want to request the government of India to evacuate us from here as soon as possible.”
A group of 110 Indian students from Urmia University of Medical Sciences in northwestern Iran has already been assisted by the Indian authorities to leave through the land border with Armenia.
“All the Indian students who had crossed the Iran-Armenia border have now safely reached the capital city, Yerevan. This includes around 90 students from Kashmir Valley, along with others from various Indian states,” said Nasir Khuehami, national convenor of the Jammu and Kashmir Students Union.
“Their flight from Armenia to Delhi is scheduled for tomorrow, with all necessary arrangements being facilitated in coordination with the Indian authorities. This comes as an immense relief to the families.”
The families of those remaining in Iran have been pleading with Indian authorities to also bring them home.
“Please save my daughters. My two daughters study (at) Shahid Beheshti University. They are in great panic — the situation in Tehran is so bad that students are in great panic,” one of the mothers, Mubeena Ali, told Arab News through tears.
“They have been shifted to Qom but they feel afraid ... They are greatly distressed. They want to be evacuated.”
Trump mulls extending travel ban to 36 more nations: source
- The Washington Post said it reviewed the internal memo and reported it was signed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and sent to diplomats who work with the countries
- The ban at first did not include Egypt, although the proposed follow-up list does
WASHINGTON: The United States is considering extending its travel ban to 36 more countries, a person who has seen the memo said Monday, marking a dramatic potential expansion of entry restrictions to nearly 1.5 billion people.
The State Department early this month announced it was barring entry to citizens of 12 nations including Afghanistan, Haiti and Iran and imposing a partial ban on travelers from seven other countries, reviving a divisive measure from President Donald Trump’s first term.
But expanding the travel ban to three dozen more nations, including US partners like Egypt along with other countries in Africa, Asia, the Caribbean and the Pacific, appears to escalate the president’s crackdown on immigration.
The Washington Post said it reviewed the internal memo and reported it was signed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and sent to diplomats who work with the countries.
A person who has seen the document confirmed its accuracy to AFP.
It reportedly gives the governments of the listed nations 60 days to meet new requirements established by the State Department.
The countries include the most populous in Africa — Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania — as well as Cambodia, Kyrgyzstan, Saint Lucia, South Sudan, Syria and Vanuatu.
Should the ban expand to include all countries cited in the memo, nearly one in five people worldwide would live in a country targeted by US travel restrictions.
The 19 countries facing full or partial entry bans to the United States, combined with the 36 cited in the latest memo, account for 1.47 billion people, or roughly 18 percent of the global population.
The State Department declined to confirm the memo, saying it does not comment on internal deliberations.
But it said in a statement that “we are constantly reevaluating policies to ensure the safety of Americans and that foreign nationals follow our laws.”
When the initial ban was announced this month, Trump warned it could be expanded to other countries “as threats emerge around the world.”
The ban at first did not include Egypt, although the proposed follow-up list does.
Trump said the initial measure was spurred by a recent “terrorist attack” on Jews in Colorado.
US officials said that the attack’s suspect Mohamed Sabry Soliman, an Egyptian national according to court documents, was in the country illegally having overstayed a tourist visa, but that he had applied for asylum in September 2022.
