WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump appears poised to drive a stake through the heart of the Iran nuclear deal Tuesday, when he announces his verdict on US sanctions relief underpinning the landmark accord.
Officials and diplomats expect the pugnacious US leader to ignore last-ditch European pleas and move to withdraw the United States from a 2015 agreement, which he insists was “very badly negotiated.”
Trump has, unsuccessfully, demanded changes to the Obama-era deal, which saw Iran mothball a suspected nuclear weapons program in return for massive sanctions relief.
Months of intensive talks between the United States and European allies now appear deadlocked, with Berlin, London and Paris refusing to rewrite the agreement.
The president tweeted he would announce his decision at 2 p.m. (1800 GMT), even as British foreign secretary Boris Johnson shuttled around Washington to reach a last-gasp breakthrough.
One European diplomat echoed the mood around foreign embassies in Washington, saying “there is plainly a difference of opinion,” acknowledging Trump seems poised to walk away.
Concretely, the US president will now to decide whether to continue to waive sanctions on Iran’s central bank and its oil sector dealings, a key pillar of the agreement.
“It’s pretty obvious to me that unless something changes in the next few days, I believe the president will not waive the sanctions,” the European official said.
“I would like to pretend to you today that I feel that there is a chance of the existing (deal) remaining intact,” the official said. “I think that that chance may exist but it is very small.”
A French official said President Emmanuel Macron left the United States last week after a similar diplomatic offensive “convinced that we would get a negative decision.”
“We are preparing more for the scenario of a partial or total withdrawal than for the US staying in the deal,” the official added.
Trump’s decision to scrap sanctions relief would have global ramifications, straining Iran’s already crisis-racked economy, heightening tensions in the Middle East and laying bare the biggest transatlantic rift since the Iraq War.
The Iranian rial had lost around a third of its value in six months, before authorities in April took the drastic step of pegging the exchange rate to the dollar.
Trump could also decide to stop waivers for a thicket of other sanctions against Iran, effectively ending US participation in the deal and putting European companies at risk of sanction.
His decision will be closely watched across the Middle East, where a number of powers are mulling their own nuclear programs, and in Pyongyang ahead of non-proliferation talks between Trump and Kim Jong Un.
Tehran has sent mixed signals about its potential response, hinting it could leave a fatally undermined deal and return to military scale uranium enrichment.
Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani — who very publicly advocated engaging with America and would be politically exposed should the deal fail — said his country would stay in the agreement even if the United States pulls out.
It is unclear whether Iran’s more hard-line military leaders, or Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, hold the same view.
And with tensions building between Iran and Israel, Tehran’s response could well come away from diplomatic antechambers or the meeting rooms of multilateral fora.
The United States does not allege that Iran is breaking the terms of the agreement, but says the accord itself does not permanently end Tehran’s controversial nuclear programs, stop missile tests or end bellicose Iranian activity in the region.
Since his days as a presidential candidate, Trump has vowed to scrap the deal, but has until now stopped short, amid fierce debate inside his administration.
He has complained, in particular, that Iran gets sanctions relief up front but could return to controversial activities once restrictions “sunset” in 2025.
His administration has also been angered by Iran’s support for Syrian President Bashar Assad, the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah in Syria’s civil war and Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen.
With the arrival of John Bolton as National Security Adviser and Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State the Iran hawks now appear to be in the driver’s seat.
Imposing oil sanctions could be the first step of a “a broad coercive campaign” to “break the regime’s back,” according to Cliff Kupchan of the Eurasia group.
But European powers are skeptical that Trump’s administration has a backup plan to restrain Iranian ambitions once he has made good on his campaign promise to tear up the deal.
Britain’s Johnson, who was in Washington to lobby Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Vice President Mike Pence, told Fox News: “Plan B does not seem to be, to me, particularly well-developed at this stage.”
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas warned the accord’s collapse could spark “an escalation” in the region and stressed that Washington’s European allies think the deal “makes the world a safer place.”
Trump to give verdict on Iran nuclear deal
Trump to give verdict on Iran nuclear deal
- The president tweeted he would announce his decision at 2 p.m
- Tehran has sent mixed signals about its potential response, hinting it could leave a fatally undermined deal and return to military scale uranium enrichment.
Pentagon to pull Milley’s security clearance, Fox reports
WASHINGTON: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will announce he is revoking the security clearance and personal security detail for retired Army General and former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, Fox News reported on Tuesday cited multiple senior administration officials.
Hegseth will also direct a review to consider if Milley should be stripped of a star in retirement based on actions that “undermine the chain of command,” Fox News reported on Tuesday.
US sending Patriot missiles from Israel to Ukraine, Axios reports
- A spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed to Axios that a Patriot system had been returned to the US, adding “it is not known to us whether it was delivered to Ukraine”
WASHINGTON: The United States transferred some 90 Patriot air defense interceptors from Israel to Poland this week to then deliver them to Ukraine, Axios reported on Tuesday, citing three sources with knowledge of the operation.
“We have seen the reports but have nothing to provide at this time,” a Pentagon spokesperson said in response to the report.
A spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed to Axios that a Patriot system had been returned to the US, adding “it is not known to us whether it was delivered to Ukraine.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday he had spoken with Netanyahu. They discussed the Middle East, bilateral ties and US President Donald Trump, who took office last week, Zelensky said on social media. The post made no mention of the missiles.
France responsible for ‘extreme violence’ in Cameroon independence war, report says
- Between 1956 and 1961, France’s fight against Cameroonian independence claimed “tens of thousands of lives” and left hundreds of thousands displaced, the historians said
- A 2021 report concluded France bore “overwhelming responsibilities” in the 1994 Rwandan genocide, and a 2020 review examining France’s actions during Algeria’s war of independence called for a “truth commission” and other conciliatory actions
PARIS: France waged a war marked by “extreme violence” during Cameroon’s fight for independence in the late 1950s, historians said in the latest officially commissioned study grappling with Paris’s colonial past released on Tuesday.
The historians found that Paris implemented mass forced displacement, pushed hundreds of thousands of Cameroonians into internment camps and supported brutal militias to squash the central African country’s push for sovereignty.
The historical commission, whose creation was announced by President Emmanuel Macron during a 2022 trip to Yaounde, examined France’s role leading up to when Cameroon gained independence from France on January 1, 1960 and the following years.
Composed of both French and Cameroonian historians, the 14-person committee looked into France’s role in the country between 1945 and 1971 based on declassified archives, eyewitness accounts and field surveys.
Most of Cameroon came under French rule in 1918 after its previous colonial ruler, Germany, was defeated during World War I.
But a brutal conflict unfolded when the country began pushing for its independence following World War II, a move France violently repressed, according to the report’s findings.
Between 1956 and 1961, France’s fight against Cameroonian independence claimed “tens of thousands of lives” and left hundreds of thousands displaced, the historians said.
“It is undeniable that this violence was extreme because it violated human rights and the laws of war,” it said.
For many in France, the war in Cameroon went unnoticed because it mainly involved troops from colonies in Africa and was overshadowed by the French fight in Algeria’s 1954-1962 war of independence.
“But this invisibility should not create an illusion. France was indeed waging war in Cameroon,” the report said.
The formerly British Cameroons to the south gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1961 and became part of the newly independent state.
While the study aims to fill France’s “memory gap” on this period, for Cameroonians, “the profound trauma linked to repression remains,” it said.
The report comes as France has seen its influence wane among its former African colonies, which are reevaluating — and sometimes severing — their ties with Paris.
Even after Cameroon gained independence in 1960, Paris remained deeply involved in its governance, working closely with the “authoritarian and autocratic” regime of Ahmadou Ahidjo, who stayed in power until 1982.
France helped draft Cameroon’s post-independence constitution and defense agreements allowed French troops to “maintain order” in the newly independent state.
Ahidjo’s successor, current President Paul Biya, 91, in office since 1982, is only the second president in Cameroon’s history.
Receiving the report in Yaounde on Tuesday, Biya called it a “work of collective therapy” that would encourage the peoples of both countries to better accept their past relationship.
Ahead of its publication, former anti-colonial fighter Mathieu Njassep had told AFP he wanted France to admit to wrongdoing.
“If France does not recognize it was wrong, we won’t be able to forgive it,” said the 86-year-old who fought against Ahidjo’s government from 1960 and was thrown in jail for 14 years for “armed rebellion.”
Macron has taken tentative steps to come to terms with once-taboo aspects of the country’s historical record, though many argue he has not gone far enough.
A 2021 report concluded France bore “overwhelming responsibilities” in the 1994 Rwandan genocide, and a 2020 review examining France’s actions during Algeria’s war of independence called for a “truth commission” and other conciliatory actions.
But Macron has ruled out an official apology for torture and other abuses carried out by French troops in Algeria.
France is now reconfiguring its military presence in Africa after being driven out of three countries in the Sahel governed by juntas hostile to Paris — Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.
And Chad accused Macron of showing contempt after he said African leaders had “forgotten to say thank you” to France for helping to combat jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel.
Last week Macron said he was committed to “continuing the work of remembrance and truth initiated with Cameroon” after receiving the report.
Zelensky says Putin ‘afraid’ of negotiations on ending Ukraine war
Kyiv: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that Vladimir Putin was “afraid” of negotiations on ending the Ukraine war, after the Russian president ruled out direct talks with his Ukrainian counterpart.
“Today, Putin once again confirmed that he is afraid of negotiations, afraid of strong leaders, and does everything possible to prolong the war,” Zelensky posted on X.
Americans sour on some of Trump’s early moves, poll finds
- Poll shows mixed approval for Trump’s early executive orders
- Support for Trump’s immigration and hiring freeze policies remains strong
WASHINGTON: Americans have a dim view of some of President Donald Trump’s early barrage of executive orders, including his attempt to do away with so-called birthright citizenship and his decision to rename the Gulf of Mexico, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
Since taking office on Jan. 20, the Republican president has moved quickly to crack down on immigration and scale back the size of government, efforts that respondents to the three-day poll that closed on Sunday look on more favorably.
Overall, the poll showed 45 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s performance as president, down slightly from 47 percent in a Jan. 20-21 poll. The share who disapproved was slightly larger at 46 percent, an increase from 39 percent in the prior poll.
The poll had a margin of error of about 4 percentage points.
“While it does seem Trump is getting a honeymoon to some extent, his numbers are still not impressive by historical standards,” said Kyle Kondik, an analyst with the University of Virginia Center for Politics. During Trump’s first term, his approval rating hit as high as 49 percent during his first weeks in office but he closed out his term at 34 percent approval following the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the US Capitol.
It may be too early to evaluate whether Trump is squandering his political capital by focusing on issues where he is not aligned with the public, Kondik said. But the poll shows that many of his early actions have been greeted warmly only by his hardcore base of supporters.
Voters more generally remain deeply concerned about the high price of food, housing and other necessities, the poll found.
Most Americans opposed ending the nation’s longstanding practice of granting citizenship to children born in the US even if neither parent has legal immigration status, the poll found. Some 59 percent of respondents — including 89 percent of Democrats and 36 percent of Republicans — said they opposed ending birthright citizenship. A federal judge last week temporarily blocked the Trump administration from making changes to birthright citizenship, but the White House has vowed to fight on.
Little support for ‘Gulf of America’
Seventy percent of respondents oppose renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, an action Trump ordered on his first day in office. Only 25 percent of respondents supported the idea, with the rest unsure.
Some 59 percent of respondents, including 30 percent of Republicans, opposed Trump’s moves to end federal efforts to promote the hiring of women and members of racial minority groups. When asked specifically about Trump’s order to close all federal diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI, offices, respondents were more evenly divided, with 51 percent opposed and 44 percent in favor, largely along partisan lines.
Support for expanding fossil fuel drilling — another early policy change in the new administration — was highly concentrated in Trump’s party, with 76 percent of Republicans backing the easing of drilling restrictions and 81 percent of Democrats opposing it. Some 59 percent of respondents said they opposed the United States pulling out of the Paris climate accords.
Public views also split along partisan lines for billionaire businessman Elon Musk, one of Trump’s most prominent allies. While 75 percent of Republicans in the survey said they had a favorable view of Musk, 90 percent of Democrats said they had an unfavorable view.
One possible source of concern for Trump’s political team could be the still overwhelming sense that rising prices remain untamed. Some 50 percent of poll respondents said the country was on the wrong track when it came to the cost of living, compared to 25 percent who said it was moving in the right direction. The rest said they weren’t sure or didn’t answer the question.
Support on immigration, hiring freeze
There were positive indicators for Trump, as well. Some 48 percent Americans approve of Trump’s approach on immigration, compared to 41 percent who disapprove. And the poll showed Trump having significant levels of support on the hiring freeze he ordered at most federal offices, with 49 percent of respondents backing a freeze, including 80 percent of Republicans and 43 percent of Democrats.
Kondik said that Trump ultimately may be judged by the public on big-picture issues such as the economy and immigration and that opposition to smaller-scale policy measures may not be damaging.
“Trump was elected in large part because voters tended to side with him on the economy and immigration. To the extent he is viewed as doing positive things on that, it’s probably good for him,” Kondik said.
But, he added, if voters in the coming months perceive Trump’s immigration crackdown or his government downsizing efforts to be overly harsh, that could change.
Trump won’t be on the ballot again, but the backlash could be felt by congressional Republicans running for re-election next year, he said.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll, which was conducted online and nationwide over Jan. 24-26, surveyed 1,034 adults.
