DUBAI: Iran’s rial traded near record lows against the dollar in the free market on Tuesday as Iranians tried to buy hard currency, fearing economic turmoil if US President Donald Trump withdraws from a deal on Iran’s nuclear program.
The dollar was selling for 65,000 rials, according to foreign exchange website Bonbast.com, which tracks the free market. That was down from 57,500 at the end of last month and 42,890 at the end of last year.
Economists inside and outside the country said the rial was being driven down by heavy demand for dollars among Iranians who feared a US pullout from the nuclear agreement would lead to the resumption of US sanctions against Tehran, deterring other nations in Europe and Asia from developing business ties.
This could constrict Iran’s foreign trade, causing a spike of inflation and further reducing access to hard currency in an economy which is already struggling with high unemployment and the threat of a crisis among financially troubled banks.
Mehrdad Emadi, an Iranian economist who heads energy risk analysis at London’s Betamatrix consultancy, said the approach of Trump’s decision was encouraging a mass flight out of the rial. On Sunday, the currency hit a record low of 67,800.
“This large scale de-rialization of the Iranian economy has now created a complete collapse of confidence,” Emadi said, adding that if the government did not take immediate steps to shore up the banking system and restore business confidence, the currency could fall as low as 110,000.
“Such a rate would translate to a tripling of the inflation rate and a deep dollarization of the Iranian economy, and barter-based transaction when hard currency cannot be found.”
Trump said he would announce on Tuesday whether he would withdraw from the nuclear deal, which eased international sanctions on Iran in exchange for Tehran limiting its atomic program.
A senior US official said it was unclear if efforts by European allies to address Trump’s concerns would be enough to save the pact, but European diplomats said privately they expected Trump to effectively withdraw from the agreement.
As pressure on the rial mounted in early April, Iranian authorities tried to halt its slide by saying they were unifying official and free-market exchange rates at a single level of 42,000, and banning any trade at other rates.
People who violated the ban were threatened with arrest. The strategy failed to stamp out the free market, however, because demand for dollars far exceeds limited supplies that authorities have provided through formal channels at the official rate.
“The free market has been shut down officially, but it continues its work unofficially. There is an underground currency market in Iran, with rates, charts and everything,” said an analyst in Tehran, declining to be named for legal reasons.
“Instead of stopping by at the exchange shop, people arrange their trade by phone calls and through underground channels.”
As part of its crackdown, Iran clamped a €10,000 ceiling on the amount of foreign currency that citizens can hold outside banks.
The Tehran analyst said this regulation was being widely disobeyed, and estimated billions of dollars were being held illicitly outside banks.
“The real dollar rate is much higher, and people know from the past that when they deposited their dollars into bank accounts, they were not able to withdraw later.”
Publicly, Iranian officials have blamed the rial’s weakness on a plot by the US and other nations. But the turmoil has had political repercussions in Tehran, where members of parliament have demanded the resignation of central bank governor Valiollah Seif.
The government was already under fire over its management of the economy. In January, public protests over corruption and economic hardship were crushed by the authorities and at least 25 people were killed.
Iran is running a substantial current account surplus, according to the International Monetary Fund, which estimates the government’s foreign assets and reserves at $112 billion.
With oil prices at multi-year highs, that may give Tehran enough firepower to prevent any collapse of the rial, if it chooses to satisfy the demand for hard currency and flood the free market with dollars.
But official economic data in Iran can be inaccurate, and some private economists estimate the amount of reserves which Tehran can easily access is much lower.
In March, the semi-official ISNA News Agency quoted Mohammad Reza Pourebrahimi, head of the economic committee in Iran’s parliament, as saying Iran had suffered capital outflows of $30 billion over four months.
Iran’s rial near record lows as Trump decision on nuclear deal looms
Iran’s rial near record lows as Trump decision on nuclear deal looms
- Economists inside and outside the country said the rial was being driven down by heavy demand for dollars among Iranians
- The Iranian government is already under fire over its management of the economy
Saudi education spending kicks off 2025 with 25% surge, pushing POS transactions to $4bn
RIYADH: Saudis spent SR207.3 million ($55.2 million) on education between Dec. 29 and Jan. 4, marking a 25.8 percent increase compared to the previous week.
According to the weekly point-of-sale transactions bulletin, this sector recorded the largest positive change over the seven-day period. It also witnessed growth in terms of the number of transactions, surging by 0.6 percent to reach 131,000.
Overall, Saudi Arabia’s POS spending registered a weekly increase of 9.2 percent, reaching SR15.1 billion, up from SR13.8 billion the week before. Figures from the Kingdom’s central bank showed that the hotel sector saw the second-largest gain at 15.1 percent to SR400.6 million.
Spending on recreation and culture followed, recording a 14.8 percent uptick to SR328.6 million.
Transactions on jewelry recorded an increase of 12.8 percent to reach SR355.4 million, and expenditure on construction and building materials surged by 3.9 percent to SR399.9 million.
Similarly, spending on food and beverages also grew 3.9 percent to SR2.16 billion, claiming the biggest share of the total POS value.
Expenditure in restaurants and cafes followed, recording a 10.1 percent increase to SR2.13 billion.
Spending on miscellaneous goods and services accounted for the third biggest POS share, with a 12.3 percent uptick, reaching SR1.8 billion.
Transactions in the leading three categories accounted for approximately 40.8 percent or SR6.1 billion of the week’s total value.
At 2.8 percent, the smallest increase occurred in spending on gas electronics, leading total payments to reach SR176 million.
Expenditures on transportation increased by 6.5 percent to SR140 million, while spending on public utilities surged by 7.3 percent to reach SR57.5 million.
Geographically, Riyadh dominated POS sales, representing around 33.8 percent of the total, with expenses in the capital reaching SR5.1 billion — a 7 percent decrease from the previous week.
Jeddah followed with a 13.1 percent surge to SR2.1 billion, and Dammam came in third at SR755 million, up 8.5 percent.
Buraidah experienced the most significant surge in spending, increasing 13.5 percent to SR358.7 million.
Tabuk and Abha recorded increases of 5.5 percent and 9.4 percent, reaching SR285.3 million and SR170.5 million, respectively.
Makkah and Jeddah saw the largest increases in terms of number of transactions, surging 11 percent and 8.5 percent, respectively, to 9.6 million and 27.4 million transactions.
Emirati billionaire to invest $20bn in US data centers, Trump says
- Hussain Sajwani promised investment feeds for constructing data centers for developing AI and expanding cryptocurrency
- Investment by DAMAC Properties in the UAE is intended to highlight Trump’s ability to attract new money for big projects
PALM BEACH, Florida: Emirati billionaire Hussain Sajwani promised a $20 billion investment in the booming US data center industry in the coming years, he and US President-elect Donald Trump announced on Tuesday at Trump’s home in Palm Beach, Florida.
With an election victory largely driven by voters’ economic concerns, Trump has doubled down on bolstering investments in domestic industries and proposed higher tariffs on Chinese goods as the US tries to curb China’s access to the chips needed for advanced data centers.
“We’re planning to invest $20 billion and even more than that, if the opportunity in the market allows us,” said Sajwani, chairman of Dubai developer DAMAC, at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home.
DAMAC owns the Middle East’s only Trump-branded golf course in Dubai, which opened in 2017, and the billionaire celebrated the New Year with Trump in Florida.
Trump has an affinity for announcements promising economic growth, though such investments do not always pan out. Early in his first term, he announced a $10 billion Foxconn investment in a Wisconsin factory that promised thousands of jobs but was mostly abandoned.
Last month Trump and SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son announced the Japanese tech investor would invest $100 billion in the US over the next four years, focused around AI.
The introduction of OpenAI’s GenAI chatbot ChatGPT in late 2022 kicked off a wave of investment in generative AI technology and the pricey infrastructure required to support it, including power generation and transmission.
Microsoft said last week it would spend about $80 billion this fiscal year to ramp up its AI capacity.
Restrictions on the export of coveted AI chips used in advanced data centers to China have tightened under the Biden administration, and Trump has nominated China hard-liners to key diplomatic and economic roles in his administration.
Oil Updates — crude rises on tighter OPEC supply, US jobs data
SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose on Wednesday as supplies from Russia and OPEC members tightened while data showing an unexpected increase in US job openings pointed to expanding economic activity and consequent growth in oil demand.
Brent crude was up 37 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $77.42 a barrel at 10:30 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 44 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $74.69.
Oil output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell in December after two months of increases, a Reuters survey showed. Field maintenance in the UAE offset a Nigerian output hike and gains elsewhere in the group.
In Russia, oil output averaged 8.971 million barrels a day in December, below the country’s target, Bloomberg reported citing the energy ministry.
On the economic front, job openings rose in the US in November and the number of layoffs was low, while workers were reluctant to quit, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed.
“Robust US economic data continues to bolster the outlook for the US economy and oil demand, further supported by a larger-than-anticipated drawdown in crude inventories,” said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.
“After trading within a prolonged tight range since October last year, selling pressures may have been exhausted for now, paving the way for a modest recovery,” Yeap said.
US crude oil stocks fell last week while fuel inventories rose, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.
Going forward, analysts expect oil prices to be on average down this year from 2024 due in part to production increases from non-OPEC countries.
“We are holding to our forecast for Brent crude to average $76/bbl in 2025, down from an average of $80/bbl in 2024,” BMI, a division of Fitch Group, said in a client note.
“The bearish view is being led by our fundamental data forecast, which points to an oversupply this year, with supply growth outstripping demand growth by 485,000 barrels per day.”
Saudi Cabinet approves new law to regulate petroleum, petchem sector
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Cabinet has approved a new Petroleum and Petrochemical Law to ensure a reliable and secure supply of products within the Kingdom.
The law, which was approved on Jan. 7, is designed to optimize the use of raw materials in the sector and support the localization of the value chain, according to a report by the Saudi Press Agency.
The new legislation will replace the existing Petroleum Products Trade Law and is expected to achieve several key objectives, including regulating petroleum and petrochemical operations. It aims to accelerate the sector’s growth, foster economic development, and encourage increased investment in the industry.
Upon the law’s approval, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman expressed gratitude to the Cabinet, emphasizing that the law would help establish a robust legislative framework for the Kingdom’s energy sector. He added that the new directive would facilitate the optimal use of petroleum and petrochemical resources.
The law will regulate the use, sale, purchase, and transportation of petrochemical products, as well as oversee the operation of distribution stations and petrochemical facilities, the Saudi Press Agency report noted.
In addition to the Petroleum and Petrochemical Law, the Cabinet approved several other agreements on Jan. 7. These include a memorandum of understanding for cooperation between Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Justice and Singapore’s Ministry of Law, an MoU on health cooperation with Morocco’s Ministry of Health and Social Protection, and an MoU to strengthen digital government collaboration between Saudi Arabia’s Digital Government Authority and Qatar’s Ministry of Communications and Information Technology.
The Cabinet also endorsed an air services agreement between Saudi Arabia and Eswatini, a Southern African nation.
Furthermore, the Cabinet reviewed ongoing development programs and projects aimed at diversifying the Kingdom’s economy, exploring new revenue streams, and maximizing the use of available resources.
EV maker Lucid becomes first global automotive manufacturing company to join ‘Made in Saudi’ program
EV maker Lucid becomes first global automotive manufacturing company to join ‘Made in Saudi’ program
- Aims to increase industrial sector’s contribution to GDP to at least 20% by 2025
- Move seeks to attract additional investments, enhance non-oil exports, and create sustainable job opportunities
RIYADH: Electric vehicle manufacturer Lucid Motors has become the first global automotive company to join the Kingdom’s “Made in Saudi” program as the country continues strengthening its industrial capabilities.
The milestone grants Lucid the right to use the “Saudi Made” label on its products, symbolizing the nation’s focus on quality and innovation.
The strategy aims to increase the industrial sector’s contribution to the gross domestic product to at least 20 percent by 2025, tripling the current industrial base.
It also seeks to attract additional investments, enhance non-oil exports, and create sustainable job opportunities, aligning with Vision 2030’s economic diversification goal.
“This is a step that represents a strong push to enhance the image of the national industry and attract investments and global companies, which consolidates the Kingdom’s position as a global center for innovative manufacturing,” Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef said in a post on his X account.
In a separate statement, the minister said that Lucid Motors’ inclusion in the program underscores Saudi Arabia’s strategic transformation toward creating a fully integrated electric vehicle manufacturing ecosystem.
The minister added that this initiative aligns with the objectives of the National Industrial Strategy, which focuses on empowering promising sectors and attracting high-value investments in advanced industries.
Lucid’s participation in the program follows the launch of its first international manufacturing plant in Saudi Arabia in Sept. 2023.
Located in King Abdullah Economic City, the facility is the Kingdom’s first-ever car manufacturing plant and represents a key milestone in its efforts to build a domestic automotive industry.
The facility can currently assemble 5,000 Lucid vehicles annually during its first phase. Once fully operational, the complete manufacturing plant, including the assembly line, is expected to produce up to 155,000 electric cars per year.
Saudi Arabia is aggressively promoting the adoption of electric vehicles as part of its Vision 2030 strategy, which aims to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2060.
A critical target of the initiative is for 30 percent of all vehicles in Riyadh to be electric by 2030, contributing to a broader goal of reducing emissions in the capital by 50 percent.
To support the transition, the Public Investment Fund — a major backer of Lucid Motors — has been instrumental in establishing a domestic EV manufacturing sector.
In addition to its stake in Lucid Motors, PIF has launched Ceer, the Kingdom’s first locally branded electric vehicle manufacturer, as part of its efforts to bolster the industry.
Infrastructure development is also a core focus, with the Kingdom planning to deploy 5,000 fast chargers across Saudi Arabia by 2030 to facilitate the adoption of EVs.
Consumer interest in EVs is steadily growing, with over 40 percent of Saudi consumers considering purchasing an electric vehicle within the next three years, according to a 2024 report by London-based professional services network PwC.
Faisal Sultan, vice president and managing director for the Middle East at Lucid Motors, expressed the company’s pride in joining the program, saying: “We are delighted to join the ‘Made in Saudi’ program and have the honor of using the ‘Saudi Made’ label, which represents quality and excellence.”
He added: “We are committed to embodying the values of this national identity, such as sustainability, innovation, and excellence. With the increasing focus on electric vehicles in the Kingdom, we aim to deliver an advanced and unique experience to our customers.”
The minister said that Saudi Arabia has emerged as a central hub for electric vehicle production, supported by modern infrastructure, incentivizing policies, and a highly skilled workforce.
He also said that major players like Lucid Motors strengthen the Kingdom’s position as a global center for future-focused industries while contributing to increased local content, non-oil exports, industrial localization, and knowledge transfer.
Launched in March 2021, Saudi Arabia’s Made in Saudi program promotes domestic products and services, encouraging local consumption and boosting non-oil exports.
The move aligns with Saudi Arabia’s broader industrial strategy, which aims to increase the sector’s gross domestic product contribution to 20 percent by 2025 and drive investments in advanced industries.
It also supports Vision 2030’s goal of reducing the nation’s reliance on oil by fostering high-value sectors like electric vehicle manufacturing.
